Trade Down or Stand Ground: The New York Jets Crucial Decision in the 2024 NFL Draft

[nj meadowlands]

7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Tanking opens up more and better possibilities for trading down, so it sounds like you're looking for a list of all the smart posters on JN?

I am always looking for the Smart Posters on JN

[Warfish]

Every year there are many advocates for trading down.

And every year (for the most part) it doesn't happen.  Likely because the team likes a guy alot more than we (collectively) do, and/or because finding a willing trade partner willing to give up a desired haul to move up to where we are just isn't as easy as Madden 2023 and the mock draft sites makes it look.

The Jets are in a "win in 2024, win now" state, clearly and unquestionably IMO.

Thus the draft strategy should/will mirror that reality.  No bendy D-Ends that might be good in a few years with a ton of workout effort.  No reach receivers based on future potential.  We need, to win now, guys who can step on the field day 1 and contribute meaningfully, specifically guys who lock down a spot and can stay healthy.  

I'm going to ignore Rodgers penchant for hating rookies here, because 1. it's ridiculous and 2. Need trumps preferences.

I'd expect JD to work his ass off trying to fix the O-line in Free Agency.  I doubt he will succeed.  I also doubt he successfully trades for the big-name old WR's many fans want us to acquire.

So thus I expect we stand pat at #10, and select the best available O-Lineman OR the best available WR.  Both major needs as of today for a "win now" 2024.

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, peebag said:

Lol- why do people think that this option is an absolute 

Because those same people think that tanking isn't a good decision, ever, and they are too stupid to see the connection between tanking and roster building. 

LOSING BAD EVERY LOSS BAD ONLY COWARDS AND LOSERS THINK LOSSES GOOD HERRDERR

[Augustiniak]

5 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I don’t think that’s necessarily the perception in the organization - both Saleh and Rodgers explicitly talked about the importance of adding another big play-maker. 

it all depends on what happens in free agency and whether we land Adams. I personally don’t see us landing adams and think the chances of us landing Higgins, Evans, or Pittman is also low. 

Thing is, they may also flip huff for a day 2 pick, and then use a day 2 pick on a wr.  It’s a good wr class, they can find a wr on day 2.  Also, i wonder if they use huff as bait to trade for a wr or OL.  

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Thing is, they may also flip huff for a day 2 pick

He's a UFA.  And tagging and trading really isn't a thing.  

The time to trade Huff, realistically, was at the trade deadline.

[#27TheDominator]

27 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I doubt they go wr at 10 b/c line is such a more obvious need, it’s harder to get good OL in FA and the perception within the organization (right or wrong) is that a good qb fixes the wr issues whereas they need tackles regardless

It's easy to find good free agent WR!  Why just this past year we added Lazard, Cobb and Hardman!

[nj meadowlands]

18 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Because those same people think that tanking isn't a good decision, ever, and they are too stupid to see the connection between tanking and roster building. 

LOSING BAD EVERY LOSS BAD ONLY COWARDS AND LOSERS THINK LOSSES GOOD HERRDERR

Leaving aside for a minute the irrationality of sitting around for three hours on a Sunday rooting for your team to lose (which is just stupid) -- this notion that a football team's front office can flip a switch and decide to lose the balance of its games (to "TANKKKK") is short sighted and pea-brained.   There are 53 players on an NFL roster.  48 dress on game days.  By definition, all of them are world class athletes and competitors.  On a team like the Jets, that was actually supposed to compete, a lot of them are even better than that.  You can't deactivate enough players where you're not fielding a group of guys that have a decent shot of winning an NFL game.  Especially on a team like the Jets, where there's a lot of talent, and especially in a league like the NFL (as opposed to, say, the NBA) where most games are coin flip propositions.  Woody Johnson and Joe Douglas are morons who deserve to be lambasted until the cows come home.  But they deserve no blame for the Jets going out and playing hard and trying to win football games after they've been eliminated from playoff contention.

At a certain point it's like, what are you Tank fetishists arguing?  That losing games marginally helps a team because it marginally improves their draft position which marginally improves their chances of drafting a better player which marginally improves their chances of being better a few years from now?  Lol okay, I guess I concede?   But to think that 1) a team has any true control over this as it's unfolding, or 2) anyone not actively rooting for losses, so that maybe the foregoing string of tenuous events could maybe possibly happen is a lesser fan is........dumb.  Sorry  

[Augustiniak]

6 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

It's easy to find good free agent WR!  Why just this past year we added Lazard, Cobb and Hardman!

Maybe not easy for the jets, but other teams find them

[Jetsfan80]

8 minutes ago, nj meadowlands said:

Leaving aside for a minute the irrationality of sitting around for three hours on a Sunday rooting for your team to lose (which is just stupid) -- this notion that a football team's front office can flip a switch and decide to lose the balance of its games (to "TANKKKK") is short sighted and pea-brained.   There are 53 players on an NFL roster.  48 dress on game days.  By definition, all of them are world class athletes and competitors.  On a team like the Jets, that was actually supposed to compete, a lot of them are even better than that.  You can't deactivate enough players where you're not fielding a group of guys that have a decent shot of winning an NFL game.  Especially on a team like the Jets, where there's a lot of talent, and especially in a league like the NFL (as opposed to, say, the NBA) where most games are coin flip propositions.  Woody Johnson and Joe Douglas are morons who deserve to be lambasted until the cows come home.  But they deserve no blame for the Jets going out and playing hard and trying to win football games after they've been eliminated from playoff contention.

At a certain point it's like, what are you Tank fetishists arguing?  That losing games marginally helps a team because it marginally improves their draft position which marginally improves their chances of drafting a better player which marginally improves their chances of being better a few years from now?  Lol okay, I guess I concede?   But to think that 1) a team has any true control over this as it's unfolding, or 2) anyone not actively rooting for losses, so that maybe the foregoing string of tenuous events could maybe possibly happen is a lesser fan is........dumb.  Sorry  

 

Winning meaningless December games in a lost season has been proven by data to not "carry over" for a franchise.

Meanwhile, losing those same kinds of games has a track record of benefitting a franchise.  I listed off 4 of them in just the last 10 years in another thread.  

The Jets have been winning meaningless December games since 2005.  It hasn't helped.  Maybe try something new?

[nj meadowlands]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Maybe try something new?

Lol this is my point.  "Try" what?  How would you even propose the team goes about doing that?  Forfeiting?

[Beerfish]

We never trade down and wont this year.   The jets will take the 3rd best ot on the board who's value is about 2nd round and will pass on great weapons.   Chisel this in stone.

[Barry McCockinner]

Bill Belichick somehow manages to trade down in almost every draft it seems. I think the difficulty of trading down is likely over stated. You don't have to "win" every trade. If you're willing to take a little less value to accomplish something it can be worth it.

If we're sitting at 10 and the two LT's are off the board and we are hell bent on taking a tackle, trading down would be ideal since there are several good RT's in this draft.

[PepPep]

2 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Here is the way I see it. Williams and May will be gone in the first 5 picks. Harrison and Nabers will be gone before #10. So that leaves 5 other player that can be taken before the Jets pick. Alt and Fashanu will certainly be gone before #10 because there are not many other strong options at other positions and sadly, the top of this draft is dominated by Offensive players in a year the Jets need O in the first round. In any event that leaves 3 more payers that can be taken before the Jets select at #10. So, the question is who are your top 4 after Williams, Maye, Harrison, Nabers, Alt and Fashanu? 

The players most likely to be available at #10 are listed below. Who would you take if available? Are there 4 you would take? because that is the number you need to assure that one will be available at #10.  I think Latham is certainly a good option at #10 because of our level of desperation at OT. Although I d on t think he grades out as a top 10 pick. But what if he's gone before #10? The only other player worth taking at #10 IMO is Daniels because (as I've said ad nauseum) you never select a QB any higher than the 10th pick because history has proven that you have a greater chance of finding a QB at #10 or later than with a top 9 pick, And more importantly, it seems teams are more likely to land their future QB in the draft when they are not actively looking for a QB and the starts simply align for it to occur. 

So, in summary, unless Lathan or Daniels is available at #10, trade down.

Brock Bowers - TE

JC Latham - OT

Dallas Turner - Edge

Jayden Daniels - QB

Keon Coleman - WR

Terri Arnold - CB

Kool-Aid McKinstry - CB

Roman Odunze - WR

 

Obviously depends on FA and trades. BUT, notwithstanding. I don't think you trade down. A quality player will fall. One always does. 10th overall is a very high pick. I know every draft is different but Garrett Wilson was taken 10th overall. And he was the 2nd WR off the board. Just saying that typically, at 10, you should be able to get a high impact player no matter what. You just have to make the right selection (isn't that always the case). 

I digress....

Regarding the list of remaining prospects after the top 6. I think Latu and/or Turner could go in the top 10. While the Jets don't need defensive/Edge help, there definitely are teams in the top 10 that do. The Chargers and Falcons come to mind. As do the Cardinals (although they are shoe-ins to go WR). I also think Daniels is almost guaranteed to go in the top 10. Before the Jets pick. He will blow up the combine,. He is the Heisman winner. He has the highest ceiling of all the QBs. I think he has a chance to surpass Caleb Williams as the 2nd best QB with Maye. Truly I do. Doesn't mean he won't bust. Just means the hype will be massive with him approaching the draft.    

So to me, I agree, Williams, Maye, Harrison, Nabers, Alt and Fashanu are gone by the time the Jets pick. But you can add Latu and Daniels to that list. I will also go as far as to say that the Bears will probably want a WR (depending on FA) and I can definitely see them taking their Franchise QB at #1 and then Odunze at 9 (assuming MHJ and Nabers are gone). 

So there are your 9 before the Jets get to select. Williams, Maye, Harrison, Nabers, Alt, Fashanu, Latu, Daniels, Odunze - in no particular order.

I think this leaves the Jets with the following prospects. All of which have to get serious consideration. I don't think they can go defense and I don't really think you trade down. Any one of these guys can turn into NFL studs and you just have to do your due diligence to take the right guy. Obviously all the events leading up to the draft will help to sort that out a bit. 

OT options: Latham, Fuaga, Mims.

WR options: Coleman, B.Thomas, Egbuka (add your own 3rd tier WR prospect) 

or TE Bowers

 

[slimjasi]

49 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Thing is, they may also flip huff for a day 2 pick, and then use a day 2 pick on a wr.  It’s a good wr class, they can find a wr on day 2.  Also, i wonder if they use huff as bait to trade for a wr or OL.  

I don't think we are getting anything for Huff, sadly. 

Either we resign him (very unlikely), tag him (unlikely), or let him walk (most likely). 

I love the idea of getting a second round pick though and this is a deep WR class, so a WR there would be cool. But it really all depends on what happens in FA.

I got the distinct impression from the collective comments of Saleh, Douglas, and Rodgers that adding a dynamic WR is a priority this offseason. I expect the Jets to go hard after the big WRs in FA and go from there. 

 

[Augustiniak]

3 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I don't think we are getting anything for Huff, sadly. 

Either we resign him (very unlikely), tag him (unlikely), or let him walk (most likely). 

I love the idea of getting a second round pick though and this is a deep WR class, so a WR there would be cool. But it really all depends on what happens in FA.

I got the distinct impression from the collective comments of Saleh, Douglas, and Rodgers that adding a dynamic WR is a priority this offseason. I expect the Jets to go hard after the big WRs in FA and go from there. 

 

I agree i think they’re going to go after guys like Higgins in a major way and that’s a good thing.  It really would be great to turn huff into an offensive asset though.  

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, nj meadowlands said:

Lol this is my point.  "Try" what?  How would you even propose the team goes about doing that?  Forfeiting?

Really?  We need to go through this again?

Step 1:  Fire your HC midseason

Step 2:  instruct the interim HC to play only the young guys/lower roster types 

Step 3:  Profit.

 

We know teams have done this, too.  Yes, “surprise wins” can happen regardless.  Still worth it to try.

[GKnight83]

Stand ground. I think we gave a shot at Bowers or the Penn St tackle


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[derp]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Right???  Everyone is going to be clamoring for pick 10 in a 7-player draft!

Exactly like it’s good to overpay to trade up to pick 14 in a 13 player draft. Just need to make sure you take a non premium position player.

[nj meadowlands]

15 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Really?  We need to go through this again?

Step 1:  Fire your HC midseason

Step 2:  instruct the interim HC to play only the young guys/lower roster types 

Step 3:  Profit.

 

We know teams have done this, too.  Yes, “surprise wins” can happen regardless.  Still worth it to try.

Midseason, when the playoffs are still a possibility?  And none of that guarantees anything (see, again: 53 man roster).

[Creepy Lurker]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Right???  Everyone is going to be clamoring for pick 10 in a 7-player draft!

It’s fine. If the Jets can’t trade down, they’ll take a 24 year old 250lb DT that needs to develop and gain 100 lbs before he’s ready. 

[Creepy Lurker]

1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

We never trade down and wont this year.   The jets will take the 3rd best ot on the board who's value is about 2nd round and will pass on great weapons.   Chisel this in stone.

They’ll totally tell the truth to the fans when they claim that the pick was their guy and top of their board. They would never lie about anything and then we can all praise them for a great pick. 

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Bill Belichick somehow manages to trade down in almost every draft it seems. I think the difficulty of trading down is likely over stated. You don't have to "win" every trade. If you're willing to take a little less value to accomplish something it can be worth it.

If we're sitting at 10 and the two LT's are off the board and we are hell bent on taking a tackle, trading down would be ideal since there are several good RT's in this draft.

Belichick’s trade downs end up with him drafting a lot of middle round garbage.  The trade down I want to see some day is the kind that the 49ers got for trading down with the Bears (Trubisky) or the Bears traded down with the Panthers (Bryce Young)

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, nj meadowlands said:

Midseason, when the playoffs are still a possibility?  And none of that guarantees anything (see, again: 53 man roster).

Yes, midseason, whenever the playoffs are out of reach.  Something Woody has never done.  Not even with Gase. 

[hmhertz]

Stay and take Nix, Penixxx or a receiver.

Any O Lineman we could draft will be another

Becton or Neal, with Billy Carter coaching them!

[TuscanyTile2]

20 hours ago, nj meadowlands said:

Leaving aside for a minute the irrationality of sitting around for three hours on a Sunday rooting for your team to lose (which is just stupid) -- this notion that a football team's front office can flip a switch and decide to lose the balance of its games (to "TANKKKK") is short sighted and pea-brained.   There are 53 players on an NFL roster.  48 dress on game days.  By definition, all of them are world class athletes and competitors.  On a team like the Jets, that was actually supposed to compete, a lot of them are even better than that.  You can't deactivate enough players where you're not fielding a group of guys that have a decent shot of winning an NFL game.  Especially on a team like the Jets, where there's a lot of talent, and especially in a league like the NFL (as opposed to, say, the NBA) where most games are coin flip propositions.  Woody Johnson and Joe Douglas are morons who deserve to be lambasted until the cows come home.  But they deserve no blame for the Jets going out and playing hard and trying to win football games after they've been eliminated from playoff contention.

At a certain point it's like, what are you Tank fetishists arguing?  That losing games marginally helps a team because it marginally improves their draft position which marginally improves their chances of drafting a better player which marginally improves their chances of being better a few years from now?  Lol okay, I guess I concede?   But to think that 1) a team has any true control over this as it's unfolding, or 2) anyone not actively rooting for losses, so that maybe the foregoing string of tenuous events could maybe possibly happen is a lesser fan is........dumb.  Sorry  

I don't think fans are necessarily looking for an actual tank as much as being upset that the jets turn it on once they're out of the postseason.  We got blown out (and seemingly quit) against Miami when there was still a shot at the playoffs.   Then we win 2 of our final 3 games after we were eliminated. 

 

Fwiw, though, this is what tanking looks like:

Jax tanked for Trevor a few years back by starting Glennon over Minshew their final few games.

The Eagles pulled Hurts in the 4th quarter of their final game a couple of years ago to play Nate Sudfeld.

 

[TuscanyTile2]

18 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Belichick’s trade downs end up with him drafting a lot of middle round garbage.  The trade down I want to see some day is the kind that the 49ers got for trading down with the Bears (Trubisky) or the Bears traded down with the Panthers (Bryce Young)

I'd love to be in the Bears' position right now.

[Larz]

I could see a 2 spot drop in the first, something like that if the board falls perfectly.  Otherwise I am forcing myself to believe that they will take the best option on offense 

[Jetsfan80]

31 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I'd love to be in the Bears' position right now.

But what about winning culture and stuff bruh 

[Augustiniak]

30 minutes ago, Larz said:

I could see a 2 spot drop in the first, something like that if the board falls perfectly.  Otherwise I am forcing myself to believe that they will take the best option on offense 

I think more than anything at this point, it depends if one of the top 2 LTs are there.  If one is i think they take the guy and move on.  If not, i think they will be able to find a trade partner and still take a good RT, maybe even fuaga, a few spots later.  

[varjet]

Last year the call was to trade down, for anything.   Anton Harrison was the pick.  
 

mcd4 has to be great for that not to be the case.  
 

instead, huff should have been extended.  
 

the jets are doing no scouting.  Not other teams players.  Not college players.  Not their own players.  The organization is broken.