Bold Predictions: Draft Edition

[derp]

3 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Oh snap. I thought you were coming after me about the Raiders trade-up. The Jets trade-up was just what I had to throw in the sim to complete the trade for some reason. No doubt a massive overpay. And, admittedly, I completely forgot that Tyrique Stevenson is good. I know everyone is putting Dallas Turner in that spot, but I’m currently in that draft podcast spin cycle where every player outside of the top seven is simultaneously great and terrible, and I had just listened to the Athletic pod where they killed Turner for 20 minutes. 

Yeah I expect the Bears to move out. Wonder if the Saints come up to like 9 or 10, depending on how things shake out there’s a couple really pretty clean trades there depending on how things shake out and they’re always aggressive and really need a tackle. Top ten should be fun this year. I’ll be a sad man when Odunze goes ahead of the Jets but I’ve come to terms with there being other ways to attack WR.

[T0mShane]

9 minutes ago, derp said:

You can certainly make the argument against, it’s just harder than the argument against for the more productive guys who are going to go behind him. I just thought the 40 thing was silly, he’d be the fourth receiver if he ran a 4.45.

It’s fine to have a take on Thomas but ultimately the take is he’ll progress or he won’t and that’s largely on him. Pretty nice year for someone with a limited route tree and inconsistent hands. I’m not so sure he benefitted from Daniels as much as Daniels didn’t hold him back. And on one hand Nabers takes away attention but on the other hand Nabers takes away targets. I feel like the PFF guys haven’t been very good for draft stuff.

The first stat line was the final year stats of Henry Ruggs and Jalen Reagor added together, by the way. That’s what it looks like to get drafted for speed.

Going to hard disagree with you on the 4.45 point. We know for a fact that the sub 4.4 number elevates lesser lights over more well-rounded receivers, and the 4.4+ hurts a few of them every year. Thomas might be a fine prospect, but Thomas at 4.48 doesn’t go as high as Thomas at 4.33, especially in terms of draft media narratives. Brugler comps his upside to Tee Higgins, which is obviously a pretty good outcome. But I don’t know if I’d give the Bengals #10 for Tee Higgins. 

[T0mShane]

17 minutes ago, derp said:

Yeah I expect the Bears to move out. Wonder if the Saints come up to like 9 or 10, depending on how things shake out there’s a couple really pretty clean trades there depending on how things shake out and they’re always aggressive and really need a tackle. Top ten should be fun this year. I’ll be a sad man when Odunze goes ahead of the Jets but I’ve come to terms with there being other ways to attack WR.

The universal praise for Odunze in every corner of the draft space has me so sad. I really thought there was a chance he’d be there at ten, but doesn’t seem like that’ll even be a remote possibility now. Must be absolutely killing it on these top-30’s. 

[Maynard13]

On 4/12/2024 at 11:14 AM, Joe W. Namath said:

Jets will trade down and recoup a 2nd round pick.

Jets will then go Oline in round 1 and wr in round 2.

 

They are better off going WR in round 1 - Brian Thomas JR - and go OL in round 2 - Tackle Morgan or Paul.  The WR's in round 2 arent as worth it. Better value with WR in 1 and tackle in 2.  

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

1 hour ago, Maynard13 said:

They are better off goping WR in round 1 - Brian Thomas JR - and go OL in round 2 - Tackle Morgan or Paul.  The WR's in round 2 arent as worth it. Better value with WR in 1 and tackle in 2.  

BTJ in round 1 would be a disaster IMO

I’d rather have Bowers and I’m not exactly a Bowers guy

BT seems like a 1y wonder with long speed as his chief trait

Don’t be fooled by a single season TD total 

There is so much variance year to year with TD production 

Pretty sure he benefited from Nabers drawing a ton of attention

[derp]

2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Going to hard disagree with you on the 4.45 point. We know for a fact that the sub 4.4 number elevates lesser lights over more well-rounded receivers, and the 4.4+ hurts a few of them every year. Thomas might be a fine prospect, but Thomas at 4.48 doesn’t go as high as Thomas at 4.33, especially in terms of draft media narratives. Brugler comps his upside to Tee Higgins, which is obviously a pretty good outcome. But I don’t know if I’d give the Bengals #10 for Tee Higgins. 

I said he still is the fourth receiver. Who goes ahead of him if he runs a 4.45? What more well rounded receiver is there to go ahead of him? It’s not like the 4.33 changed his standing as a prospect, he was a mid first round pick pre combine.

I also just don’t think 40’s move the needle the way they used to because there’s really good data that they just don’t matter that much. The 4.45 isn’t a number that’d make you go whoa, I don’t get how he runs past corners. Higgins ran a 4.54 and that’s who he’s comparing him to.

[derp]

3 hours ago, T0mShane said:

The universal praise for Odunze in every corner of the draft space has me so sad. I really thought there was a chance he’d be there at ten, but doesn’t seem like that’ll even be a remote possibility now. Must be absolutely killing it on these top-30’s. 

Yeah I think he lands in Arizona or with the Giants. I think Giants going QB or Nabers would be a big domino as would Titans surprising with the tackle they take. I do think the Bears want to move down so if there’s a scenario Alt and Odunze are there at 9 maybe a team leaps the Jets to secure Alt.

I also don’t know what the Chargers do if they get stuck at 5, so that’s an interesting piece of this. If QB’s go 1-4 is Harrison for sale at 5, who wants to do that, does Arizona move up one spot, do they take Alt, etc.

[Ghost]

Here’s mine: JC Latham will be a Top 10 pick. 

[section314]

4 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Going to hard disagree with you on the 4.45 point. We know for a fact that the sub 4.4 number elevates lesser lights over more well-rounded receivers, and the 4.4+ hurts a few of them every year. Thomas might be a fine prospect, but Thomas at 4.48 doesn’t go as high as Thomas at 4.33, especially in terms of draft media narratives. Brugler comps his upside to Tee Higgins, which is obviously a pretty good outcome. But I don’t know if I’d give the Bengals #10 for Tee Higgins. 

Not would I, but I would strongly consider it for #17 &#49.

[T0mShane]

14 minutes ago, section314 said:

Not would I, but I would strongly consider it for #17 &#49.

In a vacuum, yes, but I wouldn’t do that if I’m Joe Douglas. He has to be risk averse with whom he brings in this year because that guy has to produce this year, otherwise he’s drafting players for the next GM. Were I him, I’m trading up, not down. 

[T0mShane]

1 hour ago, derp said:

I said he still is the fourth receiver. Who goes ahead of him if he runs a 4.45? What more well rounded receiver is there to go ahead of him? It’s not like the 4.33 changed his standing as a prospect, he was a mid first round pick pre combine.

I also just don’t think 40’s move the needle the way they used to because there’s really good data that they just don’t matter that much. The 4.45 isn’t a number that’d make you go whoa, I don’t get how he runs past corners. Higgins ran a 4.54 and that’s who he’s comparing him to.

Yeah, this is all fair and I can’t even rebut it. I demur.

[section314]

14 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

In a vacuum, yes, but I wouldn’t do that if I’m Joe Douglas. He has to be risk averse with whom he brings in this year because that guy has to produce this year, otherwise he’s drafting players for the next GM. Were I him, I’m trading up, not down. 

Good point. Aren’t we the luckiest fans in the world that we sold our soul for Aaron Rodgers? The stories I could share about what die hard Packer fans told us about him two years ago in out tailgate before we beat them at Lambeau are fantastic. In a word, couldn’t wait for him to go away.

[Bobby816]

No defensive players get drafted top 10.

[T0mShane]

6 minutes ago, section314 said:

Good point. Aren’t we the luckiest fans in the world that we sold our soul for Aaron Rodgers? The stories I could share about what die hard Packer fans told us about him two years ago in out tailgate before we beat them at Lambeau are fantastic. In a word, couldn’t wait for him to go away.

I look back on how online mad I was at the Packers beat for laughing at the Jets through that whole process and now I totally get it. The stuff he was (allegedly!) pulling behind the scenes to knife both McCarthy and LaFleur at every turn was sick, and then when they finally drafted receiver help for him post-Adams, he thanked the org by spending the entire offseason and minicamp getting super-high with Miles Teller on Instagram. 

[GreenFish]

Bold prediction: The Jets will not draft at pick 10.

Timid prediction: They may trade up or down. 🤷‍♂️

[derp]

30 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Yeah, this is all fair and I can’t even rebut it. I demur.

I enjoy the debate and outside the box thinking which is why I engage in the first place - just try to push back when I think it's warranted.

[IntoTheGreen]

11 hours ago, Dunnie said:

Yep both good prospects that need development.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

 

If they still "need development" at their age, they probably won't be. 

Not even saying I hate them. Much better QB 5-6 then we have seen in years. They are ok and deserve a shot to start, but they're not exactly raw prospects. 

[T0mShane]

7 minutes ago, derp said:

I enjoy the debate and outside the box thinking which is why I engage in the first place - just try to push back when I think it's warranted.

Agreed. It’s good fun every year and I look forward to it. Always makes me think about things deeper than my normal vibes-based opinion formation. My goal is to crush you in one of these debates before the next Jets playoffs appearance. 

[derp]

8 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Agreed. It’s good fun every year and I look forward to it. Always makes me think about things deeper than my normal vibes-based opinion formation. My goal is to crush you in one of these debates before the next Jets playoffs appearance. 

Hopefully there's not too long left for that. My advantage here is that I focus on the draft pretty much year round and it's been my thing for over 20 years at this point. I'm sure you'd get me if we went farther from the draft.

For what it's worth, I'm getting on board with the idea of going tackle early and double dipping at WR. Especially if they trade down for the tackle. I do still think they need to chase upside there if they're going to half redshirt a guy.

I still cant shake the idea that Odunze is so much Douglas' style of player and he's aggressive enough of a GM that I could see him moving up a couple spots for him.

[T0mShane]

4 minutes ago, derp said:

Hopefully there's not too long left for that. My advantage here is that I focus on the draft pretty much year round and it's been my thing for over 20 years at this point. I'm sure you'd get me if we went farther from the draft.

For what it's worth, I'm getting on board with the idea of going tackle early and double dipping at WR. Especially if they trade down for the tackle. I do still think they need to chase upside there if they're going to half redshirt a guy.

I still cant shake the idea that Odunze is so much Douglas' style of player and he's aggressive enough of a GM that I could see him moving up a couple spots for him.

I think your advantage is that you use facts and logic and I look at every situation and Leroy Jenkins it. 
 

Douglas should just go ham and get up to five. Just do it. Five years from now when Odunze and Wilson are both putting up CeeDee Lamb numbers, nobody is going to remember what it cost. 

[Augustiniak]

8 minutes ago, derp said:

Hopefully there's not too long left for that. My advantage here is that I focus on the draft pretty much year round and it's been my thing for over 20 years at this point. I'm sure you'd get me if we went farther from the draft.

For what it's worth, I'm getting on board with the idea of going tackle early and double dipping at WR. Especially if they trade down for the tackle. I do still think they need to chase upside there if they're going to half redshirt a guy.

I still cant shake the idea that Odunze is so much Douglas' style of player and he's aggressive enough of a GM that I could see him moving up a couple spots for him.

I can’t see him moving up for him, i just don’t see him as a difference maker for the jets this season.  He’s just not going to get enough targets this year to throw it over the line.  

[derp]

6 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I think your advantage is that you use facts and logic and I look at every situation and Leroy Jenkins it. 
 

Douglas should just go ham and get up to five. Just do it. Five years from now when Odunze and Wilson are both putting up CeeDee Lamb numbers, nobody is going to remember what it cost. 

That could be it. It's easier to facts and logic everything when you've dissected things over and over for years. And I'm still wrong a ton, which is what makes the draft fun. Will never master it.

I think he should see how the board falls. You could say the same for Harrison and I don't think Nabers would be disappointing either. I like the other two more but it is what it is. I'm with you. Having two stud receivers gives the team an identity on offense, makes it so much harder to defend, and makes quarterback play easier going forward.

I think the YOLO move is going up and getting someone like Suamataia if they can acquire one of the receivers. Give me the raw young athletic physical team captain and let's just see if that can get figured out eventually.

I want them to get a little more physical on that side of the ball.

[derp]

10 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I can’t see him moving up for him, i just don’t see him as a difference maker for the jets this season.  He’s just not going to get enough targets this year to throw it over the line.  

Why wouldn't he get significant targets this season?

I see a hyper productive, team captain, elite athlete. It's the same reason I thought he'd love Breece Hall. You're getting a culture building piece and a really high probability of a good player at the same time.

Either way you're trying to acquire a long-term anchor on the offensive side of the ball first with this pick and trying to help this year's team second.

[Augustiniak]

8 minutes ago, derp said:

Why wouldn't he get significant targets this season?

I see a hyper productive, team captain, elite athlete. It's the same reason I thought he'd love Breece Hall. You're getting a culture building piece and a really high probability of a good player at the same time.

Either way you're trying to acquire a long-term anchor on the offensive side of the ball first with this pick and trying to help this year's team second.

With breece, garrett, williams, Lazard and anyone else, throwing rome in there does not mean he’s going to get a ton of targets this year.  Also i think there’s a misperception of how the offense is going to be with rodgers.  They don’t want to throw 40 times a game.  This team with rodgers is going to be a balanced offense with (hopefully) a dominant running game, and IMO that means getting a guy like fuaga.  I think rome is better for the next qb.  

[T0mShane]

7 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

With breece, garrett, williams, Lazard and anyone else, throwing rome in there does not mean he’s going to get a ton of targets this year.  Also i think there’s a misperception of how the offense is going to be with rodgers.  They don’t want to throw 40 times a game.  This team with rodgers is going to be a balanced offense with (hopefully) a dominant running game, and IMO that means getting a guy like fuaga.  I think rome is better for the next qb.  

I think the only potential drawback to getting Odunze in here is that Rodgers will end up preferring Odunze over Garrett Wilson. Odunze fits that big, reliable perimeter back shoulder guy that Rodgers has historically loved, and Garrett Wilson is a freelancer whom Rodgers has historically frozen out. 

[Augustiniak]

5 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I think the only potential drawback to getting Odunze in here is that Rodgers will end up preferring Odunze over Garrett Wilson. Odunze fits that big, reliable perimeter back shoulder guy that Rodgers has historically loved, and Garrett Wilson is a freelancer whom Rodgers has historically frozen out. 

I think my issue with trading up for rome is that i have no faith in rodgers anymore.  I think he’s going to get hurt and early.  I think it’s a mistake to draft someone with rodgers specifically in mind.  I have no issues with the wr, i think he’s great.  I just think where rodgers is in his career, he’s going to be hit-averse and may actually prefer a guy like bowers who he can flip the ball to quicker to avoid getting hit again.  And then if you assume this is rodgers’ last year (maybe maybe not, regardless of what he says) then you’re really drafting a guy for the next qb.  

[Barton]

2 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I think my issue with trading up for rome is that i have no faith in rodgers anymore.  I think he’s going to get hurt and early.  I think it’s a mistake to draft someone with rodgers specifically in mind.  I have no issues with the wr, i think he’s great.  I just think where rodgers is in his career, he’s going to be hit-averse and may actually prefer a guy like bowers who he can flip the ball to quicker to avoid getting hit again.  And then if you assume this is rodgers’ last year (maybe maybe not, regardless of what he says) then you’re really drafting a guy for the next qb.  

Word but we can’t build a team here and not draft X guy just because we think Rodgers is getting hurt again. If he gets hurt, he gets hurt. But give him the best possible surrounding cast and hope for the best. 

[TNJet]

22 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

Oh. Guys, I'm not asking what your bold predictions are.  I'm telling you what will happen. 

 

 

The Jets seem to find a way to get players in the first round that we debate as being the #1 at their respective positions (Leonard Williams, Jamal Adams, Sam Darnold, Quinnen Williams), players that give us hope that maybe the brass knows something we don't (Darren Lee, Will MacDonald), and players that make us sit back and say "Wow, we did it" (Gardner, Wilson, Johnson, AVT).  Only Becton was a head scratcher for me. 

This isn't a Becton year.  It's a Malik Nabers year.  

Becton still haunts me because I remember wanting Wirfs so badly and Wirfs was still available at 11 when we picked and I celebrated he hadn't been picked yet then we pick Becton and Wirfs goes to Tampa next pick and is a probowler now. Lol wtf. Fell in love with his size I guess.

[derp]

14 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

With breece, garrett, williams, Lazard and anyone else, throwing rome in there does not mean he’s going to get a ton of targets this year.  Also i think there’s a misperception of how the offense is going to be with rodgers.  They don’t want to throw 40 times a game.  This team with rodgers is going to be a balanced offense with (hopefully) a dominant running game, and IMO that means getting a guy like fuaga.  I think rome is better for the next qb.  

Williams gets a hurt a lot and Lazard was a healthy scratch last year, I’m not sure he makes the team. There are going to be targets available.

Fuaga’s a guy with no left side experience and a tendency to have bad misses in pass protection. To me that’s potentially someone who can only play for Moses if he gets hurt when the tackle who has a more concerning injury history is Smith and might cause problems for the team when he plays anyway. I don’t think he’s a bad prospect but if the argument for him over Odunze is that he’d have more of an immediate impact I don’t think I see it personally.

[Augustiniak]

7 minutes ago, derp said:

Williams gets a hurt a lot and Lazard was a healthy scratch last year, I’m not sure he makes the team. There are going to be targets available.

Fuaga’s a guy with no left side experience and a tendency to have bad misses in pass protection. To me that’s potentially someone who can only play for Moses if he gets hurt when the tackle who has a more concerning injury history is Smith and might cause problems for the team when he plays anyway. I don’t think he’s a bad prospect but if the argument for him over Odunze is that he’d have more of an immediate impact I don’t think I see it personally.

I have no issues with a RT vs LT.  We need 2.  

 

10 minutes ago, Barton said:

Word but we can’t build a team here and not draft X guy just because we think Rodgers is getting hurt again. If he gets hurt, he gets hurt. But give him the best possible surrounding cast and hope for the best. 

I think you draft based on how you view the player, not for a 40+ yr old qb who just missed an entire season and realistically has at best 2 yrs left.  Draft the best guy.

[derp]

33 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I have no issues with a RT vs LT.  We need 2.  

Not this year. You said Fuaga over Odunze for this year.

[T0mShane]

56 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I think my issue with trading up for rome is that i have no faith in rodgers anymore.  I think he’s going to get hurt and early.  I think it’s a mistake to draft someone with rodgers specifically in mind.  I have no issues with the wr, i think he’s great.  I just think where rodgers is in his career, he’s going to be hit-averse and may actually prefer a guy like bowers who he can flip the ball to quicker to avoid getting hit again.  And then if you assume this is rodgers’ last year (maybe maybe not, regardless of what he says) then you’re really drafting a guy for the next qb.  

Right, but I think an Odunze pick will end up being fine with or without Rodgers. If the concern in the short term is getting some Tyron Smith insurance who can step in and be a competent pass protector this year, it’s better to go the veteran route anyway. Some good ones still sitting at home waiting for a deal. What would you rather have? Odunze and Bakhtiari or Fuaga and MVS or OBJ? 

[Augustiniak]

11 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Right, but I think an Odunze pick will end up being fine with or without Rodgers. If the concern in the short term is getting some Tyron Smith insurance who can step in and be a competent pass protector this year, it’s better to go the veteran route anyway. Some good ones still sitting at home waiting for a deal. What would you rather have? Odunze and Bakhtiari or Fuaga and MVS or OBJ? 

My main point is, don’t draft a guy just for rodgers.  Nothing wrong with the wr, or fuaga, or fautanu.  But i think rodgers is out of football next year.

[T0mShane]

2 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

My main point is, don’t draft a guy just for rodgers.  Nothing wrong with the wr, or fuaga, or fautanu.  But i think rodgers is out of football next year.

Agreed on that for sure. My thought on it, though, is this year is a Hail Mary, which will be followed by a period of deep despair. May as well have some fun while the ball is in the air this year and worry about tomorrow tomorrow.

[Augustiniak]

Just now, T0mShane said:

Agreed on that for sure. My thought on it, though, is this year is a Hail Mary, which will be followed by a period of deep despair. May as well have some fun while the ball is in the air this year and worry about tomorrow tomorrow.

It’s a good question.  We had virtually no insight into how effective rodgers was going to be last year.  In his 3 plays he looked a bit timid.  Is he more gun shy after this injury, has he lost anything else?  We don’t know.  My guess is they’re going to run a lot and complement that with a short to intermediate passing game to try and preserve him.  This plays into taking bowers or fuaga.  

Truth the jets have the oldest qbs in the nfl and it’s quite possible next year we’re looking at bringing in another veteran to try and do what rodgers didn’t.