Is Bowles a Safe Bet to Fix Pryor?

[JetNation]

By Glenn Naughton

As Mike Maccagnan and the New York Jets move forward in assembling their roster for the 2015 season, last year’s achilles heel on defense could wind up being one of the best in the NFL, but questions about the secondary still linger.

Importing free agent cornerbacks Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie and Buster Skrine will move two of the top cornerbacks from last year’s roster, Dee Milliner and Dexter McDougle, down the depth chart and in to the trainers room.  The group Maccagnan has put together removes any sense of urgency to rush either Milliner or McDougle back on to the field after spending last season on injured reserve.

With the corners locked up and ready to go, the biggest question mark in the Jets secondary becomes second year safety Calvin Pryor.  A first round pick out of Louisville last season, the 18th overall selection struggled for much of the year in coverage while also leading the team in missed tackles with fifteen.  While new secondary coach Joe Danna will work with Pryor and the rest of the defensive backs this season, Todd Bowles’ background as a player and defensive coordinator has some Jets fans feeling good about the youngster’s future, but are those fans jumping the gun?

A safety himself, the undrafted Bowles played 117 career NFL games for the Washington Redskins and San Francisco 49ers after spending his college years at Temple University.  The rookie head coach will have his work cut out for him with Pryor, but working with a struggling young safety won’t be anything new for Bowles.  Last season in Arizona he had another first round rookie in Deone Bucannon patrolling his secondary in a myriad of roles and the overall results weren’t encouraging.

Selected 27th overall in the first round, nine slots after the Jets took Pryor, Bucannon would see significant playing time for Bowles with the Cardinals.  Flanked by Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie at the cornerback positions would have meant a heavy workload for Bucannon as Pryor teamed with Darrin Walls, Antonio Allen and undrafted rookie cornerback Marcus Williams.

While Bucannon was sometimes used in a non-traditional safety role as Bowles would utilize him as a “dime” linebacker, the strong safety who, like Pryor, came with a reputation as being strong against the run wasn’t much better against the ground game than against the pass.

According to NFL statistical website PFF.com, of the six rookie safeties who took part in at least 25% of their teams defensive plays, Bucannon graded out a distant sixth, behind Tre Boston of Carolina (5.6), Pryor (3.3), Bears rookie Brock Vereen (-0.8), Pierre Warren of the Saints (-1.5), Green Bay’s HaHa Clinton-Dix (-2.4) and then there was Bucannon (-12.4).  While PFF’s numbers are far from scientific, they are reliable enough at this point that several outlets have cited the use of their data by player agents as well as some NFL head coaches and front offices in contract negotiations and player evaluation.  That fact alone lends more credence to PFF data than some fans may be willing to accept.

Perhaps the most concerning aspect of PFF’s evaluation of Bucannon is the fact that his overall score placed him not only last among rookies, but 80th out of 85 NFL safeties this season, coupled with the fact that rather than showing progress, the youngster regressed over the season’s final six games.  A look at the Cardinals final three regular season games and round one playoff loss show Bucannon earning four of his seven total negative grades on the season with each one being slightly worse than the week before.  Pryor on the other hand was credited an average or above average rating in all but one contest, the Jets’ week four matchup against the Detroit Lions.

Neither player was regarded as being particularly strong against the pass and both were exploited throughout the season.  Pryor of course faced fewer opportunities as opposing quarterbacks had little reason to throw away from Jets cornerbacks.  As a result, he had just 19 passes thrown to a receiver in which the primary defender.  The result was a 78.9% completion percentage as quarterbacks connected on fifteen of those attempts.  Bucannon on the other hand was targeted 51 times, 43 of which resulted in a completion.  The 84.3% completion percentage would rank Bucannon dead last in the NFL among safeties who played at least 450 snaps.

Against the run, each player’s supposed strong suit, Pryor earned an overall positive grade of 2.6, while Bucannon finished up at -6.4, again placing him 80th among NFL safeties, and last among rookies.

So while both players are still in the infancy of their NFL careers, a side by side comparison of the two struggling rookies and their on-field results may give some Jets fans pause in the assumption that simply having Bowles present will be a quick-fix for Pryor.  However, the overall success of Bowles’ secondary despite Bucannon’s struggles should mean no shortage of optimism for a defense that added a pair of shutdown corners that will allow Bowles to make the Jets defense a safe bet to be blitz-happy once again.

 

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[Freemanm]

I think Bowles will fix Pryor by 1)actually using him properly, and 2) unlike Rex, actually teaching him how to play in the NFL

[BurnleyJet]

I like Allen more to play his Nickel Linebacker position. He's 6"2 210 played some corner last year and can hit. Pryor is one of the most underwhelming Jets picks in a while. Since he was not selected by the new regimen they have no loyalty to play the kid.

[Scoop24]

he played like a rookie o wait ... Pryor should be better with Gilchrist and great  Corner play now.

[AFJF]

I think Bowles will fix Pryor by 1)actually using him properly, and 2) unlike Rex, actually teaching him how to play in the NFL

 

I hope  you're right, but if it were just that simple wouldn't it mean Bowles taught Bucannon even less than the Jets taught Pryor?  I'm not so sure I believe Todd Bowles decided not to coach his first round rookie safety last season in an effort to get him to rank 80th in the NFL and dead last in pass coverage.  I believe Bowles is smarter than that.

[AFJF]

he played like a rookie o wait ... Pryor should be better with Gilchrist and great  Corner play now.

 

So it was poor cornerback play that led to Pryor missing fifteen tackles and taking poor pursuit angles?

[AFJF]

I like Allen more to play his Nickel Linebacker position. He's 6"2 210 played some corner last year and can hit. Pryor is one of the most underwhelming Jets picks in a while. Since he was not selected by the new regimen they have no loyalty to play the kid.

 

Agreed on Allen...I like what he brings.  He makes head-scratching plays from time to time but he's got some ability.  Didn't he get burned for deep TD's two years in a row up in Foxboro by bailing on his coverage?  Even still...one of the best "value" picks the Jets have had in years.

[Jetdawgg]

The CB position was a debacle last season. Anytime that Rex spent coaching was spent there.

[Jetdawgg]

So it was poor cornerback play that led to Pryor missing fifteen tackles and taking poor pursuit angles?

That is where coaching comes in. It didn't last season for Pryor

[AFJF]

That is where coaching comes in. It didn't last season for Pryor

 

I think coaching is very important, but when it comes to something as basic as a pursuit angle, if you're in the NFL then you've been taking angles for the better part of ten years.  I think he was taken by surprise in terms of the speed of how quickly things unfold and how fast the receivers are which is why he was regularly lost.  A defensive player in the NFL, rookie or ten year veteran, shouldn't need a coach to explain angles.  Missing fifteen tackles is along the same lines IMO.  How long has the kid been tackling people?  It was supposed to be his number one attribute coming out of college and he was one of the worst in the NFL last season.  Again, both issues could be attributed to him not adjusting to the speed at the pro level so hopefully an offseason to look back and make his own adjustments will help him make a bigger impact next season.  If he plays to  his full potential in this secondary it's just icing on the cake.

[AFJF]

The CB position was a debacle last season. Anytime that Rex spent coaching was spent there.

 

Which is why Bucannon playing even worse than Pryor was surprising to me.  Arizona was set at CB.  Bucannon was the worst player in that secondary and actually got worse as the season went on.  Coaching staff there should've had more time to work with him since CB's were largely great veteran players. 

 

In all fairness though, as mentioned before Bowles did use Bucannon in a non-traditional safety on many occasions but the bottom line remains that he allowed over 80% comp pct when picked on in coverage and run support wasn't much better apparently.

[bealeb319]

I like Allen more to play his Nickel Linebacker position. He's 6"2 210 played some corner last year and can hit. Pryor is one of the most underwhelming Jets picks in a while. Since he was not selected by the new regimen they have no loyalty to play the kid.

 

I think Bowels is going to fall in love with Pryor, Pryor on paper should be the perfect fit for a blitz heavy defense (that's why Rex wanted him) and now that we have corners who can cover he can get back into his comfort zone. I am looking forward to seeing how he looks this year and I would expect some big improvements from him.

[Villain The Foe]

If fixing Pryor means putting back at SS then yeah, I think Bowles has a chance. Keep Pryor away from free roaming duties and place his as a blitzed and disrupter in the run game. 

 

Over the years he'll develop some coverage and ball skills. We should be drafting a free safety in the 4th round. 

[LIJetsFan]

Which is why Bucannon playing even worse than Pryor was surprising to me.  Arizona was set at CB.  Bucannon was the worst player in that secondary and actually got worse as the season went on.  Coaching staff there should've had more time to work with him since CB's were largely great veteran players. 

 

In all fairness though, as mentioned before Bowles did use Bucannon in a non-traditional safety on many occasions but the bottom line remains that he allowed over 80% comp pct when picked on in coverage and run support wasn't much better apparently.

Maybe Bucannon just stinks.

[AFJF]

If fixing Pryor means putting back at SS then yeah, I think Bowles has a chance. Keep Pryor away from free roaming duties and place his as a blitzed and disrupter in the run game. 

 

Over the years he'll develop some coverage and ball skills. We should be drafting a free safety in the 4th round. 

 

As with any Jets player, I hope he becomes a pro-bowler.  However, how would playing FS contribute to the issues he had?  It was a lot of basic fundamental stuff.  I'm not even saying  he was that bad to be honest.  I think he did a better job than a lot of people give him credit for so I don't want this to sound like a Pryor bashing thread.  Honestly just got a bit concerned when looking up stats on rookie safeties to compare Prior to and saw that the worst rookie in the league was a Bowles guy so looked a little closer.  Pryor was better with a staff that supposedly didn't bother coaching anyone while Bowles (who I also  hope is awesome BTW) coached the worst rated rookie S in the NFL.  Looked to see if he at least improved as the season went on and turns out he got worse.  I'd be lying if I said that didn't worry me.

 

Hopefully it's just a case of Bucannon being a terrible player with no hope of being coached up and Bowles sends Pryor and multiple other defenders to Pro-Bowl worthy seasons despite not being eligible to play due to SB prep.

[AFJF]

Maybe Bucannon just stinks.

 

Yep....you said that as I was saying it in above post...that's what I'm  hoping.

 

Arians and Bowles are both highly respected, but of course that doesn't mean they couldn't have swung and missed on a first rounder.  They wouldn't be the first and won't be the last.

[Jetdawgg]

I think coaching is very important, but when it comes to something as basic as a pursuit angle, if you're in the NFL then you've been taking angles for the better part of ten years.  I think he was taken by surprise in terms of the speed of how quickly things unfold and how fast the receivers are which is why he was regularly lost.  A defensive player in the NFL, rookie or ten year veteran, shouldn't need a coach to explain angles.  Missing fifteen tackles is along the same lines IMO.  How long has the kid been tackling people?  It was supposed to be his number one attribute coming out of college and he was one of the worst in the NFL last season.  Again, both issues could be attributed to him not adjusting to the speed at the pro level so hopefully an offseason to look back and make his own adjustments will help him make a bigger impact next season.  If he plays to  his full potential in this secondary it's just icing on the cake.

The speed of the game is one thing and also the scheme may have hindered his play.

[AFJF]

The speed of the game is one thing and also the scheme may have hindered his play.

 

I'm sure it did which was something I thought about the other day when Cro said that Bowles and Rex run pretty much the exact same defense.  It might be a bad thing for Prior but hopefully he's fine. 

[slats]

Players look slow when they're not 100% sure what they're doing. Rex runs a complicated defense, and there's little doubt that Pryor's head was swimming at times. You're gonna take bad angles when it takes you an extra half second to remember what your job is. In that respect, learning a new defense this year probably isn't the best thing for him. However, with the secondary completely revamped, Bowles will have the opportunity to play him almost exclusively to his strengths: against the run and blitzing. As already has been mentioned in this thread, these guys have no real ties to Pryor, and can play Allen ahead of him without consequence, too.

Bowles defensive philosophy isn't much different than Rex's. The main thing I'm hoping to see from the new regime is a focus on taking the ball away. Too few forced turnovers under Rex. It's gonna look very similar - 3-4, lots of blitzing and man coverage - but I'm looking for more takeaways and fewer points given up. Frankly, I don't care if Pryor's on the field for those improvements or not.

[jetsrebirth]

I remember when Rex was going to turn Gholston into a star, remember when he told us that?

 

In all honesty, I think that Bowels just needs to put him back at his real position, unlike Rex did, and we will see if he can play or not. If he cannot play at his natural position, he probably was a huge bust and waste of a premium draft pick.

[ECURB]

He played like a rookie... What is this new idea that rookies play like HOFers?

[FidelioJet]

Players look slow when they're not 100% sure what they're doing. Rex runs a complicated defense, and there's little doubt that Pryor's head was swimming at times. You're gonna take bad angles when it takes you an extra half second to remember what your job is. In that respect, learning a new defense this year probably isn't the best thing for him. However, with the secondary completely revamped, Bowles will have the opportunity to play him almost exclusively to his strengths: against the run and blitzing. As already has been mentioned in this thread, these guys have no real ties to Pryor, and can play Allen ahead of him without consequence, too.

Bowles defensive philosophy isn't much different than Rex's. The main thing I'm hoping to see from the new regime is a focus on taking the ball away. Too few forced turnovers under Rex. It's gonna look very similar - 3-4, lots of blitzing and man coverage - but I'm looking for more takeaways and fewer points given up. Frankly, I don't care if Pryor's on the field for those improvements or not.

 

This is so important and often overlooked when discussing Rookie's.  If you've ever learned something new - especially in sports - when you're thinking too much everything begins to breakdown.  If you have to use a second to think about what you're supposed to do - on the NFL level - it's already too late. 

 

Add to that being out of position combined with a lack of veteran leadership, made for a rough rookie season.  

 

I think we're going to see a very different Calvin Pryor this year - and we'll see why he was picked so early.  

[AFJF]

He played like a rookie... What is this new idea that rookies play like HOFers?

 

Who said anything about HOF? 

[JustInFudge]

All he needs to do is teach him how to tackle and take proper angles. Easy!

[Scoop24]

He played like a rookie... What is this new idea that rookies play like HOFers?

In jets fans mind if your not a all pro your 1st year your bust.. Most of them dont understand players have to be develop and in most cases it takes them more that 1 year .

But here is irony they don't think Pryor can be fixed but Allen who was one of the worst DB's in football last year to the point Rex couldn't stomach him no more at safety nor Corner and benched him. Is the guy yall want to start

[ylekram]

Who said anything about HOF?

absolutely nobody. how long you been here and you havnt figured this out yet? why respond to a real quote when you could just exaggerate? lol

 

edit. look no further than the post above mine to see another shining example

[Scoop24]

Maybe Bucannon just stinks.

Dude was pretty much playing MLB this season and started slow hit his stride around mid season and played really well towards end of season . Basically Development

But hey I'll let people tell how terrible a safety he is when he barely played safety this year .

What Bucannon has really been this year is an inside linebacker, the "Mike" in nickel and dime packages. Also called the "Dollar" linebacker, Bucannon's job varies, from reading blocks and dissecting run plays, to blitzing up the middle and from the outside, to defending tight ends.

Eventually, next year perhaps, Bucannon will spend some time as a traditional safety. His experience at the "dollar" spot should make him a better player, he said.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/nfl/cardinals/2014/10/14/arizona-cardinals-deone-bucannon-bruce-arians-nfl/17254539/

[drdetroit]

What's there to fix?  The guy is what is he is glorified Eric Smith.

 

Leave him at Strong Safety and throw away the key.

[cdflip78]

I think Bowles will fix Pryor by 1)actually using him properly, and 2) unlike Rex, actually teaching him how to play in the NFL

Agreed.  Would also help if he isn't anointed the starter in May and actually has to earn his spot.

[AFJF]

absolutely nobody. how long you been here and you havnt figured this out yet? why respond to a real quote when you could just exaggerate? lol

 

edit. look no further than the post above mine to see another shining example

 

Yep...you nailed it...because clearly all a player has to do to get to the HOF is be a fundamentally sound player.  Too much to ask of a rookie of course, but it's why guys like Lawrence Taylor were enshrined...good fundamentals.

 

Not sure how people come up with this stuff.

[AFJF]

Dude was pretty much playing MLB this season and started slow hit his stride around mid season and played really well towards end of season . Basically Development

But hey I'll let people tell how terrible a safety he is when he barely played safety this year .

http://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/nfl/cardinals/2014/10/14/arizona-cardinals-deone-bucannon-bruce-arians-nfl/17254539/

 

Yeah...the fact that he wasn't always used as a traditional S should have been mentioned in the article.  If we should be upset about Pryor being set up to fail by playing FS, how should we feel about Bucannon being used to play LBer and allowing over 80% of passes thrown his way to be completed?

[AFJF]

What's there to fix?  The guy is what is he is glorified Eric Smith.

 

Leave him at Strong Safety and throw away the key.

 

I think the fact that he wasn't drafted to be a glorified Eric Smith plays a part in what some fans would like to see from him.

[Ghost]

They called this guy the Louisville Slugger.. Dude is soft! Kyle Wilson 2.0

[AFJF]

They called this guy the Louisville Slugger.. Dude is soft! Kyle Wilson 2.0

 

I really hope you're wrong on this one...but I do recall a play late in the season where he got run over at/near the goal line and made what looked like a half-hearted attempt to make the tackle.  Hopefully just a bad day.

[legler82]

If fixing Pryor means putting back at SS then yeah, I think Bowles has a chance. Keep Pryor away from free roaming duties and place his as a blitzed and disrupter in the run game. 

 

Over the years he'll develop some coverage and ball skills. We should be drafting a free safety in the 4th round. 

 

Why does everyone keep referring to putting Pryor "back" at SS?  He was a FS in college.