Is Idzik kicking himself for not drafting EJ Manuel yet?

[dbatesman]

Don't get me wrong, Freeman blows too.

[Sperm Edwards]

Glennon blows.

 

 

Don't get me wrong, Freeman blows too.

 

[*moves to Tampa*]

[sirlancemehlot]

I blame him for my chlamydia last year

But that's different. Everyone knows Idzik has chlamydia.

[Obrien2Toon]

Neither one is going to be very good, but I think Manuel will be better.

Should have taken either Woods, Dobson, Bell, or Lacy. Or even better traded up a couple of picks and took Ertz.

[SMC]

6'5, 240...With two fully functioning ankles.  What's not to like?

Well, now Manuel has 1 functioning knee to negate the 2 functioning ankles.

[Larz]

didn't the bills draft ahead of the jets ?

[Klecko73isGod]

I don't agree with the OP of Idzik flipping out for passing on him but to not to see that we going to be playing a beast up in Buffalo for years is a head scratcher. 

 

Based on two preseason games, seriously? 

 

Lemme guess, you're a big Brooks Bollinger fan, right?

[#27TheDominator]

I blame him for my chlamydia last year

 

Who do you blame for your chlamydia this year?

[SayNoToDMC]

Who do you blame for your chlamydia this year?

At this point Me. I probably should have gone to the Dr

[SweetLee83]

List of teams that had EJ Manuel as a top-15 draft pick:

 

1. Bills

 

 

-- end of list --

Doesn't matter where you were drafted if you out perform it. If he turns out to be really good, who on earth would make this point?

 

"Well...uh yeah, hes a pro bowler, but he was drafted too high and the Bills were the only team who had him there, they are so dumb!" 

 

Come on man...

[Sperm Edwards]

Doesn't matter where you were drafted if you out perform it. If he turns out to be really good, who on earth would make this point?

 

"Well...uh yeah, hes a pro bowler, but he was drafted too high and the Bills were the only team who had him there, they are so dumb!" 

 

Come on man...

 

C'mon man yourself.  The premise of the thread is ridiculous.  It's like criticizing everyone for not drafting Tom Brady in round 3.  Sure, in hindsight you're right to criticize based on the outcome, but the fact remains that no one had Brady as a 3rd round prospect (or a 4th or 5th round prospect and even the Pats passed up on him with a LATE 6th rounder before taking him with their 2nd late 6th round pick).

 

Where the Jets picked, at #9 and #13, would have been a massive reach for a guy that 31 teams had as a 2nd-4th round pick. 

 

The outcome doesn't change that you took a guy you could have had with your 2nd round pick.  To have done that instead would be like getting a free upgrade from (the player who ultimately was) your second round pick to a 1st rounder.  Teams negotiate hard for picks -- look what happened between the Jets and Bucs because Idzik wouldn't take a 2nd rounder instead of a 1st as the main compensation.  It would have all been for nothing if he then went ahead and took a guy with the #13 pick that was graded as a 3rd rounder (give or take a round).

[bitonti]

Well, now Manuel has 1 functioning knee to negate the 2 functioning ankles.

 

they dude just had knee surgery and it's the Kevin Kolb show. Not exactly a missed opportunity there.

[jl12]

I liked Manuel too but not enough to draft him where the Billls did. Hey, honestly, it's a little early to be annointing him the savior of the Bills franchise.  Let's see how he does in a real game first.  That said, I had Manuel and Nassib ranked higher than Geno.  Here's hoping that assessment is wrong. 

[SweetLee83]

C'mon man yourself.  The premise of the thread is ridiculous.  It's like criticizing everyone for not drafting Tom Brady in round 3.  Sure, in hindsight you're right to criticize based on the outcome, but the fact remains that no one had Brady as a 3rd round prospect (or a 4th or 5th round prospect and even the Pats passed up on him with a LATE 6th rounder before taking him with their 2nd late 6th round pick).

 

Where the Jets picked, at #9 and #13, would have been a massive reach for a guy that 31 teams had as a 2nd-4th round pick. 

 

The outcome doesn't change that you took a guy you could have had with your 2nd round pick.  To have done that instead would be like getting a free upgrade from (the player who ultimately was) your second round pick to a 1st rounder.  Teams negotiate hard for picks -- look what happened between the Jets and Bucs because Idzik wouldn't take a 2nd rounder instead of a 1st as the main compensation.  It would have all been for nothing if he then went ahead and took a guy with the #13 pick that was graded as a 3rd rounder (give or take a round).

Well the first half of this has nothing to do with me, I didn't start the thread, I just commented on your post. I dont need that all explained for me.

 

We COULD have had him with our 2nd round pick? Maybe. Maybe not. You or I don't know that at all. Just pure speculation on your part. 

 

I couldn't care less where players were drafted that pan out to be good NFLers, doesn't matter to me one bit. Sometimes you get steals, sometimes you don't. Nobody knows.

[dbatesman]

I couldn't care less where players were drafted that pan out to be good NFLers, doesn't matter to me one bit. Sometimes you get steals, sometimes you don't. Nobody knows.

This is awe-inspiring.

[faba]

So Bills picked manuel way before most experts thought he should go-you take a shot with a QB that has talent and hope you hit it right.

[Kleckineau]

So Bills picked manuel way before most experts thought he should go-you take a shot with a QB that has talent and hope you hit it right.

I agree. If you believe in the pick you roll with it opinions of all the naysayers be damned and BTW conversely, the Jets pick of Smith in the 2nd round could be viewed through the prism of "Oh WTF are they thinking didnt they see 31 expert draft boards lay off this pick?"

We will see in a year or two.

[kelticwizard]

I really didn't hear any talk at all pre-draft about Manuel being a first rounder.  The line was that Geno would be the first taken early in the first round, with Ryan Nassib getting mention as the only other QB with any chance at all being selected before Geno.  Manuel was considered a fairly distant third, and the rest of the crew was expected to be late round. 

 

Nobody really thought Glennon would be taken third round, for instance.

[kay_gee]

so is the consensus that it's too early for Idzik to be kicked for anything?

[Sperm Edwards]

Well the first half of this has nothing to do with me, I didn't start the thread, I just commented on your post. I dont need that all explained for me.

 

We COULD have had him with our 2nd round pick? Maybe. Maybe not. You or I don't know that at all. Just pure speculation on your part. 

 

I couldn't care less where players were drafted that pan out to be good NFLers, doesn't matter to me one bit. Sometimes you get steals, sometimes you don't. Nobody knows.

Well then we disagree as to the drafting process. Despite the expression, the draft is not a crap shoot. Roll one of the dice and try to get a 1, you have just as much chance of getting it as you do of rolling a 6. In the draft, you try to get a stud but you're going to have a hell of a lot better chance of getting one in round 1 than in round 6. That's why guys are given draft grades.

You don't take a guy with a 3rd-4th round grade with the 16th overall pick in the country. Not even if he succeeds.

After Manuel has a below-average career you'll change your tune. Instead it'll be, "Hey, I have no problem taking a shot on the kid if you think you saw something you liked in him, even if it flops, but you don't burn a #16 overall pick on a feeling. You do it a round later at best."

You take a player with a 1st round grade in round 1 - particularly the top half of round 1 - and then you can still get your guy later. Either that or you trade down again (even if it gets you below-chart compensation again).

Actually that was a move I agreed with. If they were going to draft Manuel at #8, it made sense to move down ANY number of slots since it's guaranteed he'd still be there. The error they made was in stopping the trade-down efforts at #16 if they were hell-bent on taking Manuel.

That's why certain picks are called "reaches" during the draft. Not because they will prove unworthy of the draft slot in hindsight, but because you could get a better prospect there - one with a true first round grade and high likelihood of success - AND STILL get your guy later.

Dallas did the same thing with their center they just drafted. Exactly the same thing. Fell in love with a player and traded down because their original pick was too high for him. Problem is the slot they traded down to was still too high, as he was also expected to go no higher than round 3 (and he could have slipped to round 4).

If you took Nassib in the middle of the first round, then maybe it could have been justified, as there was talk of him going as high as your original pick and/or moving up in general heading into the draft. Even though he was graded as #35-ish (Geno's eventual draft position) to the middle of round 3 if there is perceived demand for him that high or higher then you could justify pulling the trigger on him a little earlier than that to guarantee getting him if he's your guy. And you could have said you don't think he would have been there in round 2 as a result, so pulling the trigger on the guy you love at #16 is therefore good value. Except that he ended up going in what, round 4? So if you did pull the trigger on him at #16, it wouldn't have been questioned as much and you'd still have been wrong despite surer footing on the "he'd never have lasted to round 3" front.

[SweetLee83]

Well then we disagree as to the drafting process. Despite the expression, the draft is not a crap shoot. Roll one of the dice and try to get a 1, you have just as much chance of getting it as you do of rolling a 6. In the draft, you try to get a stud but you're going to have a hell of a lot better chance of getting one in round 1 than in round 6. That's why guys are given draft grades.

You don't take a guy with a 3rd-4th round grade with the 16th overall pick in the country. Not even if he succeeds.

After Manuel has a below-average career you'll change your tune. Instead it'll be, "Hey, I have no problem taking a shot on the kid if you think you saw something you liked in him, even if it flops, but you don't burn a #16 overall pick on a feeling. You do it a round later at best."

You take a player with a 1st round grade in round 1 - particularly the top half of round 1 - and then you can still get your guy later. Either that or you trade down again (even if it gets you below-chart compensation again).

Actually that was a move I agreed with. If they were going to draft Manuel at #8, it made sense to move down ANY number of slots since it's guaranteed he'd still be there. The error they made was in stopping the trade-down efforts at #16 if they were hell-bent on taking Manuel.

That's why certain picks are called "reaches" during the draft. Not because they will prove unworthy of the draft slot in hindsight, but because you could get a better prospect there - one with a true first round grade and high likelihood of success - AND STILL get your guy later.

Dallas did the same thing with their center they just drafted. Exactly the same thing. Fell in love with a player and traded down because their original pick was too high for him. Problem is the slot they traded down to was still too high, as he was also expected to go no higher than round 3 (and he could have slipped to round 4).

If you took Nassib in the middle of the first round, then maybe it could have been justified, as there was talk of him going as high as your original pick and/or moving up in general heading into the draft. Even though he was graded as #35-ish (Geno's eventual draft position) to the middle of round 3 if there is perceived demand for him that high or higher then you could justify pulling the trigger on him a little earlier than that to guarantee getting him if he's your guy. And you could have said you don't think he would have been there in round 2 as a result, so pulling the trigger on the guy you love at #16 is therefore good value. Except that he ended up going in what, round 4? So if you did pull the trigger on him at #16, it wouldn't have been questioned as much and you'd still have been wrong despite surer footing on the "he'd never have lasted to round 3" front.

NFL teams don't care about draft grades other than their own. They obviously had a 1st round grade on him. There were reports leaked saying he wouldn't have listed 10 more picks then he did.

 

You can spew me all your paragraphs about where guys should go, and who should be a 1st rounder and whatever, it doesn't really matter, all that matters is teams get the players they want, for positions they need, and hope they were right in evaluating them. 

 

Kiper and Mcshay look like morons more time than not, and their entire career is trying to project guys, and they still get it wrong more times than not. 

 

So in all actuality, nobody does know. They assume and go with their evaluations.

 

Other wise we would have busts like Jamarcus Russell. Nobody was screaming to avoid him then....

[Sperm Edwards]

NFL teams don't care about draft grades other than their own. They obviously had a 1st round grade on him. There were reports leaked saying he wouldn't have listed 10 more picks then he did.

 

You can spew me all your paragraphs about where guys should go, and who should be a 1st rounder and whatever, it doesn't really matter, all that matters is teams get the players they want, for positions they need, and hope they were right in evaluating them. 

 

Kiper and Mcshay look like morons more time than not, and their entire career is trying to project guys, and they still get it wrong more times than not. 

 

So in all actuality, nobody does know. They assume and go with their evaluations.

 

Other wise we would have busts like Jamarcus Russell. Nobody was screaming to avoid him then....

I don't agree with any of this, right down to the last sentence.

No one was taking Manuel in round 1 and if you read a rumor to the contrary, it was either started by Buffalo to save face or by someone else to get Buffalo to flinch and make a stupid pick instead of the player they really coveted.

Manuel at #16 was the most shocking reach pick of the draft (or at best was tied with the stupidity down in Dallas).

Look at it this way:

A stock can go up or down. But you don't buy a stock at $110 when it's trading for $38.50, rationalize it by saying you think it'll go up to $200 and if it does that will show it was smart, and further rationalize that no one knows for sure today if it's going to go up or down so there is no such thing as a bad value buy anyway.

[dbatesman]

NFL teams don't care about draft grades other than their own. They obviously had a 1st round grade on him. There were reports leaked saying he wouldn't have listed 10 more picks then he did.

You can spew me all your paragraphs about where guys should go, and who should be a 1st rounder and whatever, it doesn't really matter, all that matters is teams get the players they want, for positions they need, and hope they were right in evaluating them.

Kiper and Mcshay look like morons more time than not, and their entire career is trying to project guys, and they still get it wrong more times than not.

So in all actuality, nobody does know. They assume and go with their evaluations.

Other wise we would have busts like Jamarcus Russell. Nobody was screaming to avoid him then....

This is what we in the critical-thinking biz refer to as "doubling down on stupid."

[Sperm Edwards]

This is what we in the critical-thinking biz refer to as "doubling down on stupid."

I completely disagree with him on this, and he kind of jumped on me from out of nowhere, but SweetLee83 is and has been a good guy and a good poster. Play nice please. F*ckface.

[dbatesman]

I completely disagree with him on this, and he kind of jumped on me from out of nowhere, but SweetLee83 is and has been a good guy and a good poster. Play nice please. F*ckface.

Don't try to change me, baby.

[Matt39]

There really arent draft grades on QB's and pass rushers anymore. Sweet Lee is right.

 

Blaine Gabbert went in the first round. Bruce Irvin etc. Teams value these guys more than any other position and dont give a sh*t where the public ranks them if they think it's their guy.

 

I

[Matt39]

No one was taking Manuel in round 1 and if you read a rumor to the contrary, it was either started by Buffalo to save face or by someone else to get Buffalo to flinch and make a stupid pick instead of the player they really coveted.

 

 

Care to explain your source? You have absolutely no idea. He didn't dress up in that suit and attend the draft to be drafted on day 3. 

 

Unless you have insider info you'd like to share- you have absolutely zero idea if Manuel would have made it to Buffalo's pick in round two.

[dbatesman]

There really arent draft grades on QB's and pass rushers anymore. Sweet Lee is right.

Blaine Gabbert went in the first round. Bruce Irvin etc. Teams value these guys more than any other position and dont give a sh*t where the public ranks them if they think it's their guy.

I

No he's not. Of course there are grades. Geno went in the second. Damontre Moore went in the third. Repudiating the existence of grades, recycling the old Walsh line about how it doesn't matter where you pick them, referring to the draft as a crapshoot--these are just things fans of stupid teams talk themselves into believing to help rinse out the taste of spending a 1 on Donte Whitner (or, if you prefer, a 2 on Mike Nugent).

[Matt39]

No he's not. Of course there are grades. Geno went in the second. Damontre Moore went in the third. Repudiating the existence of grades, recycling the old Walsh line about how it doesn't matter where you pick them, referring to the draft as a crapshoot--these are just things fans of stupid teams talk themselves into believing to help rinse out the taste of spending a 1 on Donte Whitner (or, if you prefer, a 2 on Mike Nugent).

 

Anyone but the Jets knew drafting a kicker in round two was insanely stupid. We're talking about  a QB in Manuel and a pass rusher in Irvin, not a place kicker. Sebass was bad pick and will always be a bad pick...and he's still with the Raiders.

 

Decision was made on those two guys because both teams didnt believe they'd be around on the back end of round two. I dont see the issue when you're dealing with premium positions. Irvin led all rookies in sacks last year I believe.

[Matt39]

For the record Im not defending the Manuel pick, I'm just defending the Bills and Seahawks thought process.

 

 Missouri/Gabbert's camp payed off Mayock to inflate the value of a sh*tty QB ...anyone who saw him play in college knew he wasnt a top guy, yet he's not a reach because of the media rankings.

[JoeKlecko]

There really arent draft grades on QB's and pass rushers anymore. Sweet Lee is right.

 

Blaine Gabbert went in the first round. Bruce Irvin etc. Teams value these guys more than any other position and dont give a sh*t where the public ranks them if they think it's their guy.

 

I

 

I disagree. 

[dbatesman]

Anyone but the Jets knew drafting a kicker in round two was insanely stupid. We're talking about a QB in Manuel and a pass rusher in Irvin, not a place kicker. Sebass was bad pick and will always be a bad pick...and he's still with the Raiders.

Decision was made on those two guys because both teams didnt believe they'd be around on the back end of round two. I dont see the issue when you're dealing with premium positions. Irvin led all rookies in sacks last year I believe.

I follow the logic on premium positions. That's not what he's saying. He's saying the whole draft is just one big roll of the dice, and all anyone can do is cross their fingers and hope to get lucky. All picks are great, all picks are stupid, Dewayne Robertson is a bowling ball made of butcher knives, oh well nobody could have foreseen Robertson being a bust. Weird how you never hear Steelers fans talking themselves into this kind of logic.

[Matt39]

I follow the logic on premium positions. That's not what he's saying. He's saying the whole draft is just one big roll of the dice, and all anyone can do is cross their fingers and hope to get lucky. All picks are great, all picks are stupid, Dewayne Robertson is a bowling ball made of butcher knives, oh well nobody could have foreseen Robertson being a bust. Weird how you never hear Steelers fans talking themselves into this kind of logic.

I hear you. I guess the point I'm trying to make(which you kind of alluded too already w drob) is that there's a good amount of guys who aren't considered reaches that should give you the lolwhut face too on draft day. Gholston was a stiff in college and his first preseason I could tell he was out of the league awful.

[Matt39]

And everyone kissing Philllys asses for getting Barkley bc it was such a "value pick" is equally stupid IMO. Barkley can't make NFL throws. I wouldn't have picked him period.

Dalton in the second round too. Cincinnati is never winning a title with him at QB.

[kelticwizard]

When it comes to QB's, you have to go with who you believe in.  He's the leader of your team.

 

Geno, Nassib and Manuel were considered the top 3 QB's of a weak class.  Nassib was considered the only one with any shot at all at being selected before Geno.  Most people had Manuel third, with some distance between him and the rest of the field.

 

Manuel going to someone else in the first after the Bills passed was unlikely, but not impossible.  When you've got the QB you want in front of you, you grab him at the earliest opportunity.

 

Other positions, you play the likelihood to be drafted game to get more good players.