Gang Green Nation looks at THE Geno Smith's rookie year so far

[SenorGato]

http://www.ganggreennation.com/2013/11/5/5070626/the-human-genome-project

 

Eugene Cyril Smith III was the thirty-ninth overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. Despite being touted by many as the best quarterback in an admittedly weak draft, Geno Smith was the second taken off the board and slid all the way down to the New York Jets second round pick. His strengths were his accuracy and decision-making skills, his weaknesses was a concern about his transition from a spread "Air Raid" offense to that of a pro-style one.

Smith is a known "film-junkie" that tends to arrive at the Florham Park practice facility at six in the morning and often stays until eight or nine at night. He's shown a considerable amount of development over the first nine games of the season, and has already led the team to a 5-4 record. Four of those wins have come on Smith-led game-winning drives, the most in such a time span by any rookie quarterback in NFL history. His rock-steady calm demeanor has led teammates to note that he never gets too excited over victories, and never too down over losses. Despite this, he remains a work in progress: The Human Genome Project.

PASSING G Att Comp Pct Att/G Yds Yds/G TD INT Lng Sck TOTAL: 9 272 58.1 1,997 30.2 1,997 221.9 8 13 69 30 RUSHING G Att Att/G Yds Avg TD Lng FUM TOTAL: 9 36 4.0 172 4.8 3 16 3

Here are some notes on Smith, thus far into the season:

• Through nine games, Smith has had a quarterback rating of 71.0. This average has ranged anywhere from 27.6 in his first matchup against the New England Patriots to 147.7 against the Atlanta Falcons.
• Smith is most accurate 20+ yards down the right side of the field, where he has a 116 quarterback rating.
• Smith is least accurate 20+ yards down the left side of the field, where he has a 33.8 quarterback rating.

• However, he is most consistent 10-20 yards past the line of scrimmage, across the entire field, where he averages a 80.53 quarterback rating.

• When Smith is not under pressure, he has 67.1% completion, along with seven touchdowns and nine interceptions for a 84.7 quarterback rating.
• When Smith is under pressure, he has a 42.4% completion, along with one touchdown and four interceptions for a 46.9 quarterback rating.

• Notably, Smith is better when he is blitzed (79.6 quarterback rating) than when he is not blitzed (66 quarterback rating). In considering the previous numbers of how Smith performs under pressure, you may be confused. What this tells you that if the defense is getting pressure from their defensive front, Smith is in trouble. When the opposing team blitzes and Smith can identify/audible to another play, he has more success. This perhaps isn't quite surprising, as Smith called an audible on approximately 80% of all plays during his extremely successful career at West Virginia University.

• Smith has attempted the fifth highest percent of deep throws 20+ yards among all quarterbacks (that have played more than 50% of their team's snaps, which leaves out players such as E.J. Manuel), but is the fourth most accurate at that distance.
• Smith has the third most time to throw after Terrelle Pryor and Russell Wilson at 3.12 seconds on average.
• When Smith has 2.5 seconds or less to throw, he completes 64% of passes and has a 74.8 quarterback rating.
• When Smith has 2.6 seconds or more, he completes 54.1% of passes and has a 68.6 quarterback rating.

 

• By most statistical measures, including general accuracy, accuracy under pressure, play action, he is in the bottom third of quarterbacks. However, as noted, the 50% of plays threshold weeds out some of the weaker quarterbacks in the league.

With the exception of his game managerial role against the New Orleans Saints, Smith has shown signs of growth as he's been asked to do more and more each week. He's been asked to go vertical and to stretch the field with his legs. For the most part, he's being asked to put the team on his back, and the result so far has been a 5-4 record. As the team moves into the second half of the season, General Manager John Idzik must decide if Smith is the franchise quarterback the team needs to be successful, or if another player in the draft may be a better option.

 

[Matt39]

Geno's legit. He processes things way faster than Sanchez ever did. The receivers are non NFL quality overall. Honestly he's having a fantastic season considering what he's working with.

[Jetsfan80]

Eugene Cyril Smith III.  Can we start calling him that from now on?

[SenorGato]

The thread title should have been "As if you needed to be more sold..."

 

Geno Smith is the man. It's totes obvy, cheerier folk would say.

 

Edit: THat's a sh*tty title too.

[budda12ax7]

I like Geno...hope he gets better and better, BUT......depends on the draft...

[JoeC36]

Eugene Cyril Smith III.  Can we start calling him that from now on?

U Gene 3. 

[Lupz27]

U Gene 3.

I like it!

[SenorGato]

Just out of curiosity - how plausible is a Larry Fitzgerald trade? 

[CobraVerde]

At this same time not too long ago, Sanchez was legit...

[T0mShane]

Just out of curiosity - how plausible is a Larry Fitzgerald trade?

He's 32. So, no.

[FloridaJetsFan]

You forgot his best stat - Leads the league in Pick 6s.

[The Crusher]

At this same time not too long ago, Sanchez was legit...

 

 

Sanchez had Braylon, Santonio and Cotchery.  Geno has what's his name?, who da ****? and that dude that used to.    

[slats]

Loved the win against the Saints, but I was concerned that they seemed to be trying to win despite their QB in that one (a la Sanchez), rather than winning with their QB. An extremely conservative offensive gameplan that made it look like they had lost some confidence in him. Maybe it was his extreme lack of weapons in that game, but it was clearly noticeable. Especially towards the end of the game, when NO was stacking the box with nine guys, would've loved to've seen a play-action pass in there instead of the 3 & outs.

Can't complain too much because it worked, but I'd like to see the continual development of ESIII be the priority.

[Jetsfan80]

Loved the win against the Saints, but I was concerned that they seemed to be trying to win despite their QB in that one (a la Sanchez), rather than winning with their QB. An extremely conservative offensive gameplan that made it look like they had lost some confidence in him. Maybe it was his extreme lack of weapons in that game, but it was clearly noticeable. Especially towards the end of the game, when NO was stacking the box with nine guys, would've loved to've seen a play-action pass in there instead of the 3 & outs.

Can't complain too much because it worked, but I'd like to see the continual development of ESIII be the priority.

 

Yeah, we definitely played "hide the QB", but I don't think there's anything wrong with leaning on the running game from time to time.  It's when you have to do it every game (such as Sanchez's rookie season) in order to win games that there is a concern. 

 

Love the use of ESIII.

[Jetfan13]

Eugene Cyril Smith III.  Can we start calling him that from now on?

How about ES3

[Jetfan13]

Loved the win against the Saints, but I was concerned that they seemed to be trying to win despite their QB in that one (a la Sanchez), rather than winning with their QB. An extremely conservative offensive gameplan that made it look like they had lost some confidence in him. Maybe it was his extreme lack of weapons in that game, but it was clearly noticeable. Especially towards the end of the game, when NO was stacking the box with nine guys, would've loved to've seen a play-action pass in there instead of the 3 & outs.

Can't complain too much because it worked, but I'd like to see the continual development of ESIII be the priority.

It was obvious from the start that the cs didn't quite trust Geno, but a win is a win.

[bitonti]

 

Can't complain too much because it worked, but I'd like to see the continual development of ESIII be the priority.

 

Id like to see winning games as a priority and if that means the QB only throws 19 times so be it. 

 

ps- Start Josh Cribbs.

[Matt39]

Id like to see winning games as a priority and if that means the QB only throws 19 times so be it. 

 

ps- Start Josh Cribbs.

 

Josh Cribbs is currently our best WR and Josh Cribbs is a terrible WR.

[Jetfan13]

THE Geno Smith? Seriously?

[faba]

Id like to see winning games as a priority and if that means the QB only throws 19 times so be it. 

 

ps- Start Josh Cribbs.

Best pass of the day by Josh Cribbs- Idzik is a genius

[nycdan]

I can't believe some people are still using the lens of 'better-than-Sanchez' as the main test of Geno's success here.  Geno has had some really good games and some god-awful games.  If Sanchez had the exact same numbers as Geno everyone here would be falling on grenades.  Yes, Geno is a rookie and can certainly improve.  Yes, I hope that's the case.  Yes the WR situation here is a mess.  But when the best thing you can say about Geno's last game is he didn't get a pick-6 (he only threw 19 passes) then I'm not drinking the green punch yet.  Like the team itself, he is alternately good-Geno/bad-Geno.  That's good enough to make the playoffs with a good team but not good enough to help the team win when other things aren't working.  In other words, not that different from what we had the last 4 years.

 

Yes, I will get absolutely shredded by many for being critical of our hoped-for golden boy but I'm calling what I see as people should on this board (without hostility).  Geno has shown the potential to be really good, but there is a lot to be concerned about in those numbers.  The fact that he appears to be less effective when there is no pressure is sort of odd, no?  I think there's a tendency to like the number of long passes, but at the end of the day, he has thrown a LOT of INTs, many on short passes, and at some point, we have to stop laying them all on the receivers and question if that's going to get better as the receivers do.

 

This could go one of two ways, but there's a real non-zero chance it goes the wrong one.  Hopefully we'll have a clearer direction either way over the next 7 games, because IMO more up-and-down might just leave us with no certainty over how much to invest in QB (draft or veteran FA) next off-season.

[budda12ax7]

U G 111...nice

[dbatesman]

The turnovers have to stop, but the other numbers are pretty good. The next seven games are huge, obviously, and I wouldn't be averse to spending one our threes on a little competition, but I like the kid.

PS: I think the conservative gameplan had less to do with a lack of confidence in Geno and more to do with the fact that a.) our receivers in the 2nd half were Davis Nelson, Greg Salas, and Zack Sudfeld, and b.) the fact that New Orleans is 6th in DVOA against the pass and 3rd in Adjusted Sack Rate.

[JiFtheOracle]

 

http://www.ganggreennation.com/2013/11/5/5070626/the-human-genome-project

 

Eugene Cyril Smith III was the thirty-ninth overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. Despite being touted by many as the best quarterback in an admittedly weak draft, Geno Smith was the second taken off the board and slid all the way down to the New York Jets second round pick. His strengths were his accuracy and decision-making skills, his weaknesses was a concern about his transition from a spread "Air Raid" offense to that of a pro-style one.

Smith is a known "film-junkie" that tends to arrive at the Florham Park practice facility at six in the morning and often stays until eight or nine at night. He's shown a considerable amount of development over the first nine games of the season, and has already led the team to a 5-4 record. Four of those wins have come on Smith-led game-winning drives, the most in such a time span by any rookie quarterback in NFL history. His rock-steady calm demeanor has led teammates to note that he never gets too excited over victories, and never too down over losses. Despite this, he remains a work in progress: The Human Genome Project.

PASSING G Att Comp Pct Att/G Yds Yds/G TD INT Lng Sck TOTAL: 9 272 58.1 1,997 30.2 1,997 221.9 8 13 69 30 RUSHING G Att Att/G Yds Avg TD Lng FUM TOTAL: 9 36 4.0 172 4.8 3 16 3

Here are some notes on Smith, thus far into the season:

• Through nine games, Smith has had a quarterback rating of 71.0. This average has ranged anywhere from 27.6 in his first matchup against the New England Patriots to 147.7 against the Atlanta Falcons.
• Smith is most accurate 20+ yards down the right side of the field, where he has a 116 quarterback rating.
• Smith is least accurate 20+ yards down the left side of the field, where he has a 33.8 quarterback rating.

• However, he is most consistent 10-20 yards past the line of scrimmage, across the entire field, where he averages a 80.53 quarterback rating.

• When Smith is not under pressure, he has 67.1% completion, along with seven touchdowns and nine interceptions for a 84.7 quarterback rating.
• When Smith is under pressure, he has a 42.4% completion, along with one touchdown and four interceptions for a 46.9 quarterback rating.

• Notably, Smith is better when he is blitzed (79.6 quarterback rating) than when he is not blitzed (66 quarterback rating). In considering the previous numbers of how Smith performs under pressure, you may be confused. What this tells you that if the defense is getting pressure from their defensive front, Smith is in trouble. When the opposing team blitzes and Smith can identify/audible to another play, he has more success. This perhaps isn't quite surprising, as Smith called an audible on approximately 80% of all plays during his extremely successful career at West Virginia University.

• Smith has attempted the fifth highest percent of deep throws 20+ yards among all quarterbacks (that have played more than 50% of their team's snaps, which leaves out players such as E.J. Manuel), but is the fourth most accurate at that distance.
• Smith has the third most time to throw after Terrelle Pryor and Russell Wilson at 3.12 seconds on average.
• When Smith has 2.5 seconds or less to throw, he completes 64% of passes and has a 74.8 quarterback rating.
• When Smith has 2.6 seconds or more, he completes 54.1% of passes and has a 68.6 quarterback rating.

 

• By most statistical measures, including general accuracy, accuracy under pressure, play action, he is in the bottom third of quarterbacks. However, as noted, the 50% of plays threshold weeds out some of the weaker quarterbacks in the league.

With the exception of his game managerial role against the New Orleans Saints, Smith has shown signs of growth as he's been asked to do more and more each week. He's been asked to go vertical and to stretch the field with his legs. For the most part, he's being asked to put the team on his back, and the result so far has been a 5-4 record. As the team moves into the second half of the season, General Manager John Idzik must decide if Smith is the franchise quarterback the team needs to be successful, or if another player in the draft may be a better option.

 

 

Great read.

 

Not surprised by his passer rating in the face of a blitz.  With as terrible of a receiving core that he has, its probably the only way they can get open. 

[JiFtheOracle]

The turnovers have to stop, but the other numbers are pretty good. The next seven games are huge, obviously, and I wouldn't be averse to spending one our threes on a little competition, but I like the kid.

PS: I think the conservative gameplan had less to do with a lack of confidence in Geno and more to do with the fact that a.) our receivers in the 2nd half were Davis Nelson, Greg Salas, and Zack Sudfeld, and b.) the fact that New Orleans is 6th in DVOA against the pass and 3rd in Adjusted Sack Rate.

 

No doubt...that and you know Rex respects the hell out of his brother's ability to scheme so he was most likely protecting Geno from getting baited into turnovers. 

[dbatesman]

Davis Nelson

 

I think this is a minor jazz trumpeter.

[Matt39]

 

 

 

 

 

 

[slats]

I think the kid with the crayon might be onto something.

[Jacked4JetsFB]

Geno is the man! He, Rex and Idzik will bring us our coveted SB trophy!

[SenorGato]

Loved the win against the Saints, but I was concerned that they seemed to be trying to win despite their QB in that one (a la Sanchez), rather than winning with their QB. An extremely conservative offensive gameplan that made it look like they had lost some confidence in him. Maybe it was his extreme lack of weapons in that game, but it was clearly noticeable. Especially towards the end of the game, when NO was stacking the box with nine guys, would've loved to've seen a play-action pass in there instead of the 3 & outs.

Can't complain too much because it worked, but I'd like to see the continual development of ESIII be the priority.

 

Not that I watched but I didn't get that vibe at all. Would have had more doubt if he didn't score a TD, but they are not really afraid of giving him the ball. Like dbates pointed out, the Saints are excellent against the pass this year. Throw in Ivory having the game he had, the front 7's dominance, the lack of higher quality WRs on the roster, and highlighting Geno was correctly identified as a non-priority. 

[SenorGato]

Geno Smith and Kris Bryant - 2013 draft picks I couldn't possibly be more confident in. Is it in or about? 

[sirlancemehlot]

Oh man I can't take all the geno love. He completed 8 passes last week and personally lost us three games this year. Doesn't make him a bad QB, necessarily. But I'm not about to blow him after seeing what last years rookie class accomplished. He has a ways to go, and I'm hoping he gets there. That's about as far as I'll go with praise until I see him cut out the bad ints and big-loss sacks and general bad throws and holding the ball too long while staring down receivers. Because he does all that stuff, stats or no stats. Sanchez was a winner once too. But he wasn't good enough to carry a bad offense. Genos in the same boat right now. He has to be better than that to be legit.

[nycdan]

Oh man I can't take all the geno love. He completed 8 passes last week and personally lost us three games this year. Doesn't make him a bad QB, necessarily. But I'm not about to blow him after seeing what last years rookie class accomplished. He has a ways to go, and I'm hoping he gets there. That's about as far as I'll go with praise until I see him cut out the bad ints and big-loss sacks and general bad throws and holding the ball too long while staring down receivers. Because he does all that stuff, stats or no stats. Sanchez was a winner once too. But he wasn't good enough to carry a bad offense. Genos in the same boat right now. He has to be better than that to be legit.