JetNation Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 By Glenn Naughton A few weeks ago we pointed out five reasons for Jets fans to remain optimistic regarding the future of third-year quarterback Geno Smith despite his well-documented struggles as a pro thus far. This week, we look at the other side of the coin and cover some of the lingering concerns pertaining to the West Virginia product who has been named the Jets starting quarterback by head coach Todd Bowles who also said Smith could lose the job to veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick if his play were to sputter. 1) History is not on Smith’s side Entering his third season, Smith’s production is far from anything NFL fans have seen from any super bowl winning quarterback with the lone exception of course being Trent Dilfer with the Baltimore Ravens as one of the top defenses in the history of the league delivered a super bowl ring without the benefit of a superstar quarterback. Since Dilfer’s championship season, only eight different quarterbacks have hoisted the Lombardi Tropy: Tom Brady (x4), Eli Manning (x2), Ben Roethlisberger (x2), Brad Johnson, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco and Russell Wilson. Of the above mentioned QB’s, none posted numbers as poor as Smith’s over their first two seasons without showing signs of being a franchise quarterback on a somewhat regular basis. Fans often reference both Manning brothers as franchise quarterbacks who struggled early on, but in all reality both players were better than what Geno has been for the Jets by a wide margin. In the case of Peyton Manning, fans love to remind us that he struggled through a poor rookie season in which he threw 28 touchdowns but coupled that with 28 interceptions. While those numbers would indicate some significant ups and downs, the fact of the matter is that Manning didn’t struggle for the duration of his rookie year, but four horrific performances early on would skew his numbers by season’s end. Through his first four outings as a rookie, Manning would throw 4 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, meaning of course that over the final 12 weeks of the season he logged 24 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. Impressive numbers for a first-year player at a time when the passing game was far more difficult to execute than it is in today’s quarterback-friendly game. Lack of consistency and turnovers have plagued Smith early in his career. Eli, on the other hand, didn’t take over as a starter until week 10 of his rookie year. Through is first 29 NFL starts, the same number Smith has now, the younger Manning threw 44 touchdowns 34 interceptions. Over that same time frame, Smith has thrown nineteen fewer touchdowns (25) and the same number of interceptions. Of course Manning was a more seasoned player and better prospect coming out of Ole’ Miss who wasn’t rushed in to action, but the fact remains that even when Eli looked lost at times, he also showed the flashes that teams look for in a young quarterback more frequently than Smith as with the Jets. 2) Increased Production in Schedule “Garbage Time” If the final quarter of a blowout game in the NFL is viewed as “garbage time”, it’s hard to argue that the final quarter of a lost season is a whole lot different. Of course a player can learn and grow every time he straps the pads on, but in each of his first two years in the league, the Jets have been out of the playoff hunt late in the season. While it would be unfair to ignore Smith’s production in those games, it might also be foolish to treat them the same as you would a game that impacted more than just draft position. As mentioned above, Smith has tossed 25 touchdowns and 34 interceptions through is first two seasons with Gang Green. However, his 10 touchdowns and 4 interceptions over the final quarter of each of those seasons means Smith has thrown 15 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in weeks 1-12 over the course of his short career. Tough production to judge based on the cirucmstances surrounding those games. In his best-ever performance as a pro in week 17 this season against the Miami Dolphins, some of his biggest plays came not only against a team with nothing to play for, but against a cornerback, Cortland Finnegan, who was on his last legs and announced his retirement not long after he surrendered over 100 yards and a touchdown to Eric Decker in that season finale. Once healthy down the stretch, Decker saw his production increase and finished the season with a 10 catch 221 yd performance in Miami. 3) Proving People Wrong Isn’t Always a Good Thing The age-old adage in the NFL is that if you give any quarterback enough time to throw the ball, he’ll pick you apart. That has been far from true in Smith’s case. According to PFF.com, Smith had more time from snap to throw (3.10 seconds) than any QB in the NFL other than Russell Wilson (3.20). Even with that being the case, he was better than just two other quarterbacks (Josh McCown and Blake Bortles) when given 2.5 seconds or more to get the pass off, and completed only 50.2% of his passes in those situations. Some fans point to Smith’s lack of weapons and in fairness, it’s not one to be discounted. However, it appeared time and again that regardless of the name on the Jersey, Smith often missed his target when the opportunity to make a play presented itself. In the infamous “moviegate” game against the San Diego Chargers, Smith turned in one of his worst performances as a pro going 4-12 for 27 yds and one interception before being pulled. This, despite the fact that he had multiple opportunities to make plays and move the ball. Consistently failing to hit open receivers doomed the offense against the Chargers but it wasn’t because they weren’t open, it was because Smith wasn’t hitting them when they were, regardless of whether he had a clean pocket or was under pressure. 4) Deep Ball Struggles Utilizing PFF data once again for this category, Smith threw only 45 passes that traveled 20 yards or more through the air, tying him for last in the NFL with Kyle Orton of the Bills, so you can’t ignore the fact that Smith still led the NFL in interceptions on deep passes with eight. Completing just 31% of those passes puts Smith ahead of only Blake Bortles and Derek Carr in terms of deep ball accuracy, whereas Fitzpatrick, his projected back-up, ranked second in the NFL behind only Matt Ryan with a 52.6% completion percentage while throwing 6 TD’s and 3 INT’s to Smith’s 5 TD’s and 8 INT’s. Smith’s struggles in throwing the ball down field was a key this season as the Jets lost several games by a touchdown or less. In a pair of home losses to the division rival Dolphins and Patriots by 3 and 1 point respectively, poorly thrown would-be touchdowns cost the Jets valuable points. Against New England, the speedy Percy Harvin was matched up against current Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis and on one particular play, Harvin won the battle. After a double move enabled Harvin to get behind Revis with a clear path to the end zone, Smith had a sizable window in which to put the ball. Instead, his overthrown pass gave Harvin no chance to make a play. Harvin beats Revis by a step and with no safety over the top, Smith has plenty of room to make a play. Smith’s errant pass allows Revis to gain ground on Harivn as the overthrown pass falls to the turf. Faced with a similar situation against the Dolphins, Harvin headed for the end zone and blew past his man giving Smith plenty of room to work with. A good throw would have been a score, but Harvin’s efforts were wasted as once again as Smith’s pass landed out of bounds. Harvin gets separation on an out toward the left sideline. An open Harvin can only watch the ball bounce out of bounds. These are only a couple of examples, but they’re glaring due to the fact that both games were decided by less than a field goal, and in both cases Smith had plenty of room for error as his receiver was in the clear, but misfired both times, highlighting PFF’s findings in regards to Smith’s lack of accuracy with the deep ball. If Smith is going to be a successful NFL quarterback, he’s going to have to become a more accurate passer when his receivers beat coverage down the field. Harvin wasn’t as productive as hoped, but it wasn’t always because he wasn’t getting open. 5) Prematurely hitting the panic button As we saw from Smith several times last season, he often took sacks for big losses when protection broke down. Rather than hitting the deck or rolling out to throw the ball out-of-bounds, he would often scramble toward the opposite goal line before getting hit for a loss which knocked the Jets out of field goal range on several occasions. While the pass protection was far better than many realize in 2014, left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson wasn’t the same dominant player he has been in the past, and RT Breno Giacomini was inconsistent on the opposite side. If opposing pass-rushers are able to generate pressure against the Jets, Smith can’t afford to continue costing the offense chunks of negative yards, or taking points off the board by forcing the Jets to go with the punt team instead of the field goal unit. With the good and the bad laid out for Smith, now all we can do is wait for training camp to see which version shows up to training camp, and whether Jets fans have more reason to remain optimistic, or to hit the panic button themselves. View the full article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFJF Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Follow-up to previous article highlighting five reasons to believe in Geno. Wanted to show both sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pointman Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 How dare that article say that The Revis was beat by some Bill crap named Harvin?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFJF Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 How dare that article say that The Revis was beat by some Bill crap named Harvin?? I almost used some other shots of Geno missing wide open receivers but for some reason I couldn't get the all-22 to stop blurring badly every time I used it. It happens sometimes, but this was the worst it's been so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Harvin is a good player. If Cassel starts in Buff, he might out produce Sammy Watkins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFJF Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Harvin is a good player. If Cassel starts in Buff, he might out produce Sammy Watkins. Harvin was way better than what his numbers indicated. Got open an awful lot but the ball wasn't delivered...he may have the same issue in Buffalo though. If they can get good QB play with Watkins drawing all the double-teams, you could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Integrity28 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Harvin was way better than what his numbers indicated. Got open an awful lot but the ball wasn't delivered...he may have the same issue in Buffalo though. If they can get good QB play with Watkins drawing all the double-teams, you could be right. A lot of people griped about the Harvin acquisition, for the reason he sucked, which just isn't the case. The trade sucked because it was a dumb acquisition, but Percy can play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Integrity28 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Oh, and FML, that photo looks just like Sanchez whining to the sideline. How the **** does this franchise replace one sulky bitch with another and not find any alternative for almost a decade? HOW the **** does that happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFJF Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 A lot of people griped about the Harvin acquisition, for the reason he sucked, which just isn't the case. The trade sucked because it was a dumb acquisition, but Percy can play. I liked it at the time because I felt like his acquisition would give Geno a shot to work with good enough weapons (Harvin/Decker/Kerley/Amaro) to see if he was the goods. That's a big reason why the "he didn't have any good players around him" excuse is grossly exaggerated IMO. He didn't have an all-star team, but he had several capable players around him. Even if Geno had turned out to be a good QB, the thing I didn't like about the move was the timing...it was a few weeks to late to make an impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Integrity28 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I liked it at the time because I felt like his acquisition would give Geno a shot to work with good enough weapons (Harvin/Decker/Kerley/Amaro) to see if he was the goods. That's a big reason why the "he didn't have any good players around him" excuse is grossly exaggerated IMO. He didn't have an all-star team, but he had several capable players around him. Even if Geno had turned out to be a good QB, the thing I didn't like about the move was the timing...it was a few weeks to late to make an impact. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JiFtheOracle Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Only 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JiFtheOracle Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I liked it at the time because I felt like his acquisition would give Geno a shot to work with good enough weapons (Harvin/Decker/Kerley/Amaro) to see if he was the goods. That's a big reason why the "he didn't have any good players around him" excuse is grossly exaggerated IMO. He didn't have an all-star team, but he had several capable players around him. Even if Geno had turned out to be a good QB, the thing I didn't like about the move was the timing...it was a few weeks to late to make an impact. Ya think? Haha That was 100% Idzik doing his old friends a favor by taking a lockerroom distraction out of their SB run equation. There was literally zero motivation otherwise to make that deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFJF Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Ya think? Haha That was 100% Idzik doing his old friends a favor by taking a lockerroom distraction out of their SB run equation. There was literally zero motivation otherwise to make that deal. Geno was Idzik's guy and the team was terrible...if Geno had been even a little bit better then he hits Harvin for a few bombs, bumps his numbers up, wins a few more games and possibly saves Idzik's job. Idzik knew he needed something to be able to hang his hat on and winning some games in the second half with has hand chosen QB would have done that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetsons Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Reason #1- he still on the team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Harvin was way better than what his numbers indicated. Got open an awful lot but the ball wasn't delivered...he may have the same issue in Buffalo though. If they can get good QB play with Watkins drawing all the double-teams, you could be right. I could see Harvin getting frustrated very quickly in Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Geno was Idzik's guy and the team was terrible...if Geno had been even a little bit better then he hits Harvin for a few bombs, bumps his numbers up, wins a few more games and possibly saves Idzik's job. Idzik knew he needed something to be able to hang his hat on and winning some games in the second half with has hand chosen QB would have done that. Which is why he did something very un-idzik like and went for the hail mary of the harvin trade. It was never going to save a season everyone knew was doomed, it was designed to try to save a career: his own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFJF Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Which is why he did something very un-idzik like and went for the hail mary of the harvin trade. It was never going to save a season everyone knew was doomed, it was designed to try to save a career: his own. Exactly....and I don't think anyone would have minded all that much if it had worked. If Geno showed himself to be a competent NFL QB, and Harvin tallies another few hundred yards and TD"s on deep balls then the deal isn't so bad. As it turned out, Harvin's presence did little for Geno and even though he played well himself. Harvin's price tag was too much to take on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Exactly....and I don't think anyone would have minded all that much if it had worked. If Geno showed himself to be a competent NFL QB, and Harvin tallies another few hundred yards and TD"s on deep balls then the deal isn't so bad. As it turned out, Harvin's presence did little for Geno and even though he played well himself. Harvin's price tag was too much to take on. Worst of all idzik probably cost me a fantasy championship. Traded for Harvin an hour before he was dealt to Jets and missed making the finals by a couple points. Say it with me now..... Thanks, Idzik. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbatesman Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 It was never going to save a season everyone knew was doomed, it was designed to try to save a career: his own. John Idzik: Behind the Music Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
munchmemory Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 John Idzik: Behind the Music John Idzik: Behind the Music: Disastered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raideraholic Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 How dare that article say that The Revis was beat by some Bill crap named Harvin?? The Jets are paying D Revis a lot of money , to play like the Revis Island version. That player doesn't exist anymore, but they have to hope his play doesn't slip a lot more in 2015, or that contract they gave him could be a disaster. Cb on the wrong side of thirty- their skills can deteriorate real fast. The Jets better hope that isn't the case with Revis. No doubt Revis is capable of making a successful transition to safety- but not at the price you're paying him to be a shutdown cb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
munchmemory Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I could see Harvin getting frustrated very quickly in Buffalo Harvin is a self-centered dick. I hope he catches six balls in Buffalo for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYs Stepchild Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Well now we have a few weeks to see if the anti Rex guys were right about the development of QBs under him. If this spread offense with 3 big wingspan targets, a deep threat, a great slot receiver, and a pretty good running game doesn't bring out a whole new Geno then I hope we turn to Fitz sooner than later. I really think Fitz is a very good QB playing with the lead, and our defense should give him that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFJF Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Well now we have a few weeks to see if the anti Rex guys were right about the development of QBs under him. If this spread offense with 3 big wingspan targets, a deep threat, a great slot receiver, and a pretty good running game doesn't bring out a whole new Geno then I hope we turn to Fitz sooner than later. I really think Fitz is a very good QB playing with the lead, and our defense should give him that. This is the most interesting part to me. I like the idea of starting the season with Geno to see what he can do in year three against starters for four quarters. If he hasn't shown improvement, I want to see how long they stick with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
munchmemory Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 This is the most interesting part to me. I like the idea of starting the season with Geno to see what he can do in year three against starters for four quarters. If he hasn't shown improvement, I want to see how long they stick with him. I see this happening really quick. Maybe even in the first game after Geno throws four INTs, two for pick sixes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet9 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 1 He sucks 2 He blows 3 He stinks 4 He's horrible 5 He's terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
munchmemory Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 1 He sucks 2 He blows 3 He stinks 4 He's horrible 5 He's terrible lol What Jet9 said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
win4ever Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Excellent article, I love well researched articles, and I know it's a pain to put them together, so thank you. I do agree there are certain things to be worried about Geno, especially for some reason when he throws intermediate passes. One thing I did notice in the Miami game, as opposed to all the other games was the amount of loft he put on the ball, to give his players a better chance of catching the pass. It was an unusual amount, harking back to the Chad Pennington days, but I'm wondering if it could be an adjustment to add more touch in certain situations to get it over the defender's head. The time to throw statistic is interesting, but I do think there is a chance for that statistic to be skewed. Smith tends to run around a fair bit behind the pocket, increasing the clock from snap to throw (as does Wilson, so not surprised he's the highest) for calculations and increasing the average. It could be something that also ties into the WRs not being open even after a decent amount of time because they can't get away from their defenders. It'll be interesting to see how the spread system helps him get rid of the ball quicker with pre-snap reads and better players. Overall, I'm probably in the minority, but I do think Smith has potential, but certainly a lot of areas of concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
32EBoozer Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Harvin is a self-centered dick. I hope he catches six balls in Buffalo for the year. With their QB situation, those 6 receptions may lead the team! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyCarl40 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Geno probably has until the bye week. If he's the Geno we all know and loathe, he's done. If he's winning games and limiting turnovers, he'll get more rope. Unfortunately, it'll be the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larz Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 1 - 5 he only plays well in front of his family in miami Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFJF Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 1 - 5 he only plays well in front of his family in miami The @Miami game is in London this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drdetroit Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 1 - 5 he only plays well in front of his family in miami We have two home games against Cleveland and Eagles and an away game facing the colts soft D first 3 weeks of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 It's the curse of Shea stadium. The Mets having pitching and nothing else; the Jets have defense and nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
section314 Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Geno was a bum in college and is worse in the NFL. Why is this a surprise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.