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Late First Round value is crap.


Shockwave

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Seems like a draft that has very little top talent. In fact it seems like theres very little first round talent. However the draft seems extremely deep. Ive seen several guys say a player in the 20's may have a similar grade to one in the Late 3rd Round. Initial Reactions: 

1- If theres ever a draft to trade down and acquire mid round picks its certainly this year for the Jets. You want as many 2, 3 and 4's in this year as possible. 

2- If Im a team with Alot of Cap Room Im offering my First for Mo immediately. In the mid to late first your going to get a marginal starter at best with a bust rate near 50%. With Cap Room soaring across the league theres going to be so many scrubs getting 10-12m yearly. 

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2 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Not the Tannenbaum/Rex era!!

True...but I was referring to what fans would like to see.  I'm guilty of it myself, but I bet 90% of fans must be saying the same exact thing about their own team every year.  Everyone is scared to miss on a prospect, so everyone wants 20 picks to increase chances of hitting on somebody.  Makes sense in theory, but how often does it happen?

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I still think there's some really nice talent that will be there at 20 but maybe not at a position that we we hoping for.  The outside linebacker class looks slow.  The guys right now that appear they could be worth it are Reggie Ragland, Darron Lee, jack Conklin, Taylor decker and I'm gonna throw a curveball in there as someone I really loved the tape on but was rumored to be slow, josh Doctson the wr out of TCU who ran surprisingly in the 4.5 range.  I'm also very interested to see where Lequan treadwell goes.  He could be there if his 40 time is slow at his pro day.  And if a good QB slips you just have to take him but the wildcard is Ezekiel Elliot.  He may be there only because teams don't want to take a runner in the first and he might be the most talented of all these guys making him worthy of that pick.

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32 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Trade down and get more picks?  You know which offseason this reminds me of?  All of them.

I hate trading down. Never have been for it. Its a sh*tty draft but deep. 

14 minutes ago, Persiussa said:

I still think there's some really nice talent that will be there at 20 but maybe not at a position that we we hoping for.  The outside linebacker class looks slow.  The guys right now that appear they could be worth it are Reggie Ragland, Darron Lee, jack Conklin, Taylor decker and I'm gonna throw a curveball in there as someone I really loved the tape on but was rumored to be slow, josh Doctson the wr out of TCU who ran surprisingly in the 4.5 range.  I'm also very interested to see where Lequan treadwell goes.  He could be there if his 40 time is slow at his pro day.  And if a good QB slips you just have to take him but the wildcard is Ezekiel Elliot.  He may be there only because teams don't want to take a runner in the first and he might be the most talented of all these guys making him worthy of that pick.

-Ragland is a 2 down thumper - Those guys are early second rounders at best. 

-Conklin will be gone. Decker is a RT. Drafting a RT in the first round is dumb. 

-Drafting ANY RB in first round is pretty crazy when you see how bad the turnover is and their bust rate.

 

Treadwell is certainly interesting. Him not running at the combine can pretty much assure you he was putting up OL 40 yard dash times. However Right now Jason Spriggs is the most interesting player for the Jets. A guy with that upside at a premium position is especially hard to find that late in this sh*tty of a class. 

The Class does match up somewhat well for what we need if your staring at next year: We could possibly come away with: 

1. Spriggs

2. Nick Martin

3/4 - Some combination of NT and a Developmental QB. 

With Harrison gone in a few days and Fitz/Dbrick/Mangold all having huge cap numbers and super old that will likely be our priorities. 

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I think there are 6 or 7 very realistic picks for us at #20 that would be nice pick ups for us.

 

Maybe a QB

Zeke Elliot RB

Corey Coleman WR or Treadwell if he drops

Taylor Decker OT or Jack Conklin OT

Cody Whitehair G

Ryan Kelly C (Maybe a bit high)

Leonard Floyd LB

Emanuel Ogbah LB

Reggie Ragland LB

Darron Lee LB

Maybe Nkemdiche if the coaches believe in him

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Maybe Paxton Lynch will have a bad pro day and somehow slip to us. It is pretty doubtful but I think it would be hard not to take him at pick 20 its low risk high reward. I think as a whole this is going to be a pretty lousy draft class at least in comparison to what we have had the past few years. Supposedly a lot of decent depth players at least.

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Just now, joewilly12 said:

So Bryce Petty isn't any good. 

You don't stop looking until you confirm you found The One. What's worst that could happen? We find two studs at same time? I don't think there is any danger of the Jets getting that lucky but if it happens you trade one for a ransom. 

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3 minutes ago, jgb said:

You don't stop looking until you confirm you found The One. What's worst that could happen? We find two studs at same time? I don't think there is any danger of the Jets getting that lucky but if it happens you trade one for a ransom. 

How will we know if they are the next coming of Joe Namath will pre season games determine that. 

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11 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

How will we know if they are the next coming of Joe Namath will pre season games determine that. 

One can hope that professional coaches can evaluate the players in game simulated conditions enough to know who not to cut and then it will take time

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19 minutes ago, jgb said:

One can hope that professional coaches can evaluate the players in game simulated conditions enough to know who not to cut and then it will take time

I would think they would do that before they drafted them usually players play 1-4 years of college football and usually they should be able to determine if they are the real deal. Thee are exceptions but they are often far and few between. 

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7 hours ago, AFJF said:

True...but I was referring to what fans would like to see.  I'm guilty of it myself, but I bet 90% of fans must be saying the same exact thing about their own team every year.  Everyone is scared to miss on a prospect, so everyone wants 20 picks to increase chances of hitting on somebody.  Makes sense in theory, but how often does it happen?

I agree with the theory much moreso this year than any other. IMO, the Jets lack depth all over the place except for DL. If the title of this thread is true and we are picking at 20, it would only make sense to play the board to your advantage, no?

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53 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

I would think they would do that before they drafted them usually players play 1-4 years of college football and usually they should be able to determine if they are the real deal. Thee are exceptions but they are often far and few between. 

draft inexact science. drafted players get cut all the time. were it as easy as you suggest, there would never be draft busts.

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I'm not opposed to trading down for a reasonable trade and there isn't a first round caliber player available at a need position. The problem is that every other team sees the same draft we do and the first round picks may be devalued because no other team sees somebody they want in the first either.

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6 hours ago, Mainejet said:

I agree with the theory much moreso this year than any other. IMO, the Jets lack depth all over the place except for DL. If the title of this thread is true and we are picking at 20, it would only make sense to play the board to your advantage, no?

It does make sense, but we (me included) tend to say it every season, but if it's true that there are no players at 20 and all the value is late, how realistic is it that we find a team willing to trade?  Even a team that wants a DL can supposedly get a really good one in round two this season.  

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12 hours ago, AFJF said:

It does make sense, but we (me included) tend to say it every season, but if it's true that there are no players at 20 and all the value is late, how realistic is it that we find a team willing to trade?  Even a team that wants a DL can supposedly get a really good one in round two this season.  

Yup it's like everyone saying "I want player X... if he comes cheap." Well no sh*t I want Brady for 8 cents a year.

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On 2/28/2016 at 3:33 PM, Shockwave said:

Seems like a draft that has very little top talent. In fact it seems like theres very little first round talent. However the draft seems extremely deep. Ive seen several guys say a player in the 20's may have a similar grade to one in the Late 3rd Round. Initial Reactions: 

1- If theres ever a draft to trade down and acquire mid round picks its certainly this year for the Jets. You want as many 2, 3 and 4's in this year as possible. 

2- If Im a team with Alot of Cap Room Im offering my First for Mo immediately. In the mid to late first your going to get a marginal starter at best with a bust rate near 50%. With Cap Room soaring across the league theres going to be so many scrubs getting 10-12m yearly. 

Considering jets history of second round busts, you sure about that theory? 

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