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Chicago Bears: unhappy coach and unhappy QB


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2 hours ago, Joe the Breadman said:

This x100. That is what the whole hoopla is about.

With Solomon Thomas staring the 49ers right in the face, the Bears should simply have had the discipline to let the draft come to them and not lose their minds. 

But Lynch and co. worked Pace over and got quite the haul. 

Even if some team had traded up to 2 and took Trubisky,  Solomon Thomas would not have been a bad consolation prize. And if the object of the trade  up was indeed Thomas well then Trubisky would have been right there abailable to them. 

And then drafting 3 small school prospects didn't exactly help the situation out.

I checked out a couple of Bears fan forums and those people were completely raging over there...i mean losing their minds. 

 

Many of this board said that the Jets should do what it takes to get a real QB.  Use the 6th pick to take a QB, not a safety or TE.  Many were opposed to using the 6th pick on a sketchy prospect like Trubisky.

We have not gotten all of the facts on the SF-Chi trade.  Presumably SF put the pick up for bid, as opposed to threatening to take Trubisky themselves.   But at this point SF has Hoyer, who one would argue is an upgrade over McCown, for less money (because I think Hoyer did not want to be a dead man walking for Hack and Petty-so basically the Jets have to pay someone more because the intent is that he is only temporary).

But in any event, Chi is pursuing the strategy that many on this and other boards have supported-go all in on the QB, only the QB matters.   They have guaranteed functional QB play in Glennon, and to a lesser extent Sanchez, with Trubisky in the wings.    They gave up a bunch of draft picks in a deep draft to get Trubisky.  

So with a weak overall roster and fewer new players, the Bears this year will have decent QB play, possibly better than the Jets roll out.   But it is possible that they also stink this year, but then they can use next year's draft picks to start building the team around Trubisky.

SF had a strong draft with lots of picks, and the dirty little secret in the NFL is that they will free Cousins from his shackles and pay him lots of money.  SF willl have the money because their team will otherwise be draft picks.  Lynch is a smart guy-maybe not an experienced GM, but a smart guy.  You can't teach smarts.

One could argue that the Jets have both the weakest collection of QBs in the NFL as well as the weakest long-term QB plan.   There are only really 2 possible plans-sign a FA and/or draft one (oh...the Bears' plan) or hope Hack works out and still draft one-he will need a backup, and soon a possible successor/Plan B, his contract is up in 2019. 

But as I said before, Trubisky had NFL QB qualities, and there was both no way he was making it to 6 (someone would take him or trade for him), and there was no way the Jets were not taking him at 6 if he was there.  They were not trading picks for a QB that was not certain, but they were not passing on him either.   He is a WCO QB, which most of the other top QBs were not.

In a football world where college is mostly spread offense people argue that the NFL offenses should become more like college as opposed to trying to teach college QBs NFL offenses, the Jets appear to be going WCO.   That makes it even harder to find a QB.  Maybe they think Hack is SMART enough to run a WCO, even if he has accuracy issues, particularly short range.  We shall see.

 

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1 hour ago, varjet said:

Many of this board said that the Jets should do what it takes to get a real QB.  Use the 6th pick to take a QB, not a safety or TE.  Many were opposed to using the 6th pick on a sketchy prospect like Trubisky.

We have not gotten all of the facts on the SF-Chi trade.  Presumably SF put the pick up for bid, as opposed to threatening to take Trubisky themselves.   But at this point SF has Hoyer, who one would argue is an upgrade over McCown, for less money (because I think Hoyer did not want to be a dead man walking for Hack and Petty-so basically the Jets have to pay someone more because the intent is that he is only temporary).

But in any event, Chi is pursuing the strategy that many on this and other boards have supported-go all in on the QB, only the QB matters.   They have guaranteed functional QB play in Glennon, and to a lesser extent Sanchez, with Trubisky in the wings.    They gave up a bunch of draft picks in a deep draft to get Trubisky.  

So with a weak overall roster and fewer new players, the Bears this year will have decent QB play, possibly better than the Jets roll out.   But it is possible that they also stink this year, but then they can use next year's draft picks to start building the team around Trubisky.

SF had a strong draft with lots of picks, and the dirty little secret in the NFL is that they will free Cousins from his shackles and pay him lots of money.  SF willl have the money because their team will otherwise be draft picks.  Lynch is a smart guy-maybe not an experienced GM, but a smart guy.  You can't teach smarts.

One could argue that the Jets have both the weakest collection of QBs in the NFL as well as the weakest long-term QB plan.   There are only really 2 possible plans-sign a FA and/or draft one (oh...the Bears' plan) or hope Hack works out and still draft one-he will need a backup, and soon a possible successor/Plan B, his contract is up in 2019. 

But as I said before, Trubisky had NFL QB qualities, and there was both no way he was making it to 6 (someone would take him or trade for him), and there was no way the Jets were not taking him at 6 if he was there.  They were not trading picks for a QB that was not certain, but they were not passing on him either.   He is a WCO QB, which most of the other top QBs were not.

In a football world where college is mostly spread offense people argue that the NFL offenses should become more like college as opposed to trying to teach college QBs NFL offenses, the Jets appear to be going WCO.   That makes it even harder to find a QB.  Maybe they think Hack is SMART enough to run a WCO, even if he has accuracy issues, particularly short range.  We shall see.

 

I agree about Hack, I think the team pushed their eggs into the Hackenberg basket, and I don't blame them honestly.   

With Chicago, I think what we saw was the pressure getting to a first time GM in a big media market.  The Bears are in a rebuild for sure, but they just let go of one of their top players in Jeffery, and declined to bring back Cutler.  I'm thinking he felt the pressure and panicked because the team isn't good enough.  I don't think it was the right move for the Bears, I think it was the right move for Pace.  Glennon will start the year, with the money he has gotten and the experience, he will start the year.  Tribunsky's inexperience will give reason for fans to not demand that he start right away.  Pace's hope is that Glennon plays well enough to not fall over himself and then have Tribunsky and Glennon with high value and be able to trade one of them, much like the Eagles did last year with Bradford.  They got lucky in that a team with title contention hopes had such a devastating injury to their starter in the Vikings.  However, I think that is his eventual plan.  He wants Glennon to start, be decent enough that he retains value, and then pick between him and Tribunsky.  

It's not a bad plan, but it's also not without it's flaws.  One, QB evaluation is extremely hard.  On every play, 10 other guys have to do their job for things to go right, and even then someone on defense can make a great play.  The QB can make a great read and throw, but if the receiver slows down on his route, it suddenly becomes a bad throw.  Or if he has no one open on time (as he goes through his progressions) and gets sacked, who's fault is it really?  

I always believed the worst way to develop a QB is to throw him to the wolves with no talent around him, which is exactly what the Jets did with Geno.  The more a QB plays in that scenario, the more they take wild chances and develop bad habits.  Going to channel my inner Petty, and give an example from Madden.  A few years ago, I was playing some random guy online with me playing the Jets and him the Cowboys.  He had this wide 9 defense where he blitzed everyone, and just left two corners out there and maybe a LB on the third receiver.  I would get sacked before I got to the top of my drop.  However, I realized soon enough that quick slants and fades would work on this defense, so I would take one step drops and throw because I just didn't have the time to see them get open.  He screwed me over by faking this blitz a couple of times and I'd throw right into the defender.  In this case, it was the stupid workaround that he found with the game, but it completely screwed my game plan and never recovered (lost badly).  I think it's similar for a ton of young QBs, where once you develop those bad habits, it's hard for you to trust what you are seeing at times.  

College football scouting is basically scouting skills.  The best QB last year was essentially Jackson, and he might not even be a top 10 pick if he comes out without making some improvements.  With the spread system and recruiting mismatches, you really only have about 3-4 real match ups on a schedule.  

I thought Watson was better than Tribusky on tape, but Clemson is also legitimately stacked on offense.  They have very good receivers, a fast system, and they call extremely good plays.  If you watch them, they take deep shots down the field regularly to keep the safeties honest.  They run well with the QB and RB.  Then they beat the CBs to death with back shoulder passes.  College CBs just can't cover the back shoulder passes without risking the deep routes as well.  They execute that offense flawlessly at times, which make them a great tape.  However. Tribusky went higher because he has better arm tools than Watson.   

I think the Bears will suck, and I think Pace thinks that too.  However, if he stuck with just Glennon, and went 4-12, his job is in jeopardy.  Now, it doesn't matter as much about how the Bears do, it matters how Glennon or Tribusky does.  As long as both of them don't fall on their faces (what happened to the Rams last year), Pace is still sitting fine.  He just needs one of the two to perform just average.  If Glennon performs average, he created trade leverage that would mean a first round pick out of nowhere.  If Tribusky performs well, no one cares what they gave up.  I think his biggest miss was panicking on the 49ers because the Browns were open about moving up for the QB.  

I don't think the Jets are the worst team out there with a QB plan.  They don't have much talent, but I think the plan is actually pretty sound.  One of Petty/Hackenberg plays.  If they are horrible, we are going to get a high pick in a QB deep draft.  If they play well, the problem solved and we have a young QB that is good.  Are Petty/Hack the ideal QBs?  Absolutely not, but I don't have a problem with the plans.  

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Great post Win4ever.  I did not quote it because of its length.

I don't think anyone gives a high draft pick to trade for Glennon.  I think the QBs with trade value have lower salaries.  It is tough to pay someone and give up a draft pick. 

What they do get is a bridge QB and a potential future QB.  It is a decent QB story.  If they are drafting high again next year, they could always draft another QB high and either release Glennon or trade Trubisky. 

Hopefully Hack can play well enough to be at least a 2.  The Jets definitely add at least 1 QB next year.  It could be a draft pick or a FA, or both.  This is McCown and likely Petty's last year on the Jets..

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29 minutes ago, varjet said:

Great post Win4ever.  I did not quote it because of its length.

I don't think anyone gives a high draft pick to trade for Glennon.  I think the QBs with trade value have lower salaries.  It is tough to pay someone and give up a draft pick. 

What they do get is a bridge QB and a potential future QB.  It is a decent QB story.  If they are drafting high again next year, they could always draft another QB high and either release Glennon or trade Trubisky. 

Hopefully Hack can play well enough to be at least a 2.  The Jets definitely add at least 1 QB next year.  It could be a draft pick or a FA, or both.  This is McCown and likely Petty's last year on the Jets..

I also like Win's post above, and yours before it.  Not sure about some others on this thread, specifically those who seem to know already that Trubisky will be a bad Qb.   Maybe they can pick out a lottery ticket  for me.

As for Chicago, no doubt their approach may not pan out.  But IF they were right to want Trubisky, the trade up makes sense in that it was likely SF was offering the second spot to any team that made an attractive enough offer, not just Chicago.  So Chicago was not trading up in a vacuum, but did so in order to prevent some other team from trading for the spot and picking Trubisky.

All of this suggests that Chicago has the flexibility to trade Glennon perhaps even before the season starts, certainly next year, when and if Trubisky shows he's ready to play.  And if Trubisky can't take the job away from Glennon in 18, then they've got him under contract. And if both look good next off season, Chicago can trade one of them, probably Glennon.  Like I said it might not pan out for them, but I can see the logic.

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18 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

Sometimes the ends just dont justify the means. Look at how the bears got him, and the circumstances surrounding it. Look at the other picks they had throughout the draft. 

 

The only thing that I can think of is that maybe the Bears higher ups have a partying history with Jim Irsay and they were probably doing lines of nose candy and popping shrooms while the draft was going on. That's how retarded their draft was. 

As was ours.  There is a reason both Chicago and us were in the Top 6 picks.   Mac is just as clueless.  

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9 hours ago, win4ever said:

I thought Watson was better than Tribusky on tape, but Clemson is also legitimately stacked on offense.  They have very good receivers, a fast system, and they call extremely good plays.  If you watch them, they take deep shots down the field regularly to keep the safeties honest.  They run well with the QB and RB.  Then they beat the CBs to death with back shoulder passes.  College CBs just can't cover the back shoulder passes without risking the deep routes as well.  They execute that offense flawlessly at times, which make them a great tape.  However. Tribusky went higher because he has better arm tools than Watson.   

IMO Watson was better and is better than Tribusky.  He's flat out better, competed against superior competition, think Alabma here, and thrived while Tribusky struggled when he played better comp.

Arm talent alone should not be the deciding factor, if it was then JaMarcus Trenell Russel would be on his way to Canton.

Watson was the smarter player, better student and superior over all QB

 

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On 5/2/2017 at 3:34 PM, peebag said:

I don't think they're down on Tribisky in so much the way they aquired him - if they stood pat they probably could have got him and kept everything they gave up.

Lynch let the Bears know that another team was negotiating to trade up ahead of the Bears.  What other player would it be for?  Mahomes? Watson?  

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2 hours ago, Dcat said:

Lynch let the Bears know that another team was negotiating to trade up ahead of the Bears.  What other player would it be for?  Mahomes? Watson?  

Could have been the Jets for Trubisky.   The Jets have gone with a WCO.   Only Trubisky and Peterman of the top QBs could credibly run it in the next 2 years, which is what a 1st round QB pick should be.  

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If you're right, you're smart; if you're wrong, you're an idiot. That's pretty much how the GM game works. If Glennon plays well for a year or two, then Trubisky takes over and plays better, and then the Bears trade Glennon for a decent draft pick, this will have turned out to be very smart. It's an expensive high risk in both money and draft picks, but that will all be forgotten if Trubisky turns out to be a true franchise QB. 

I do think the 49ers hoodwinked them, though. The most likely player anyone was trading up for there was probably the one the 49ers wound up taking. 

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On 5/3/2017 at 11:32 AM, Charlie Brown said:

IMO Watson was better and is better than Tribusky.  He's flat out better, competed against superior competition, think Alabma here, and thrived while Tribusky struggled when he played better comp.

Arm talent alone should not be the deciding factor, if it was then JaMarcus Trenell Russel would be on his way to Canton.

Watson was the smarter player, better student and superior over all QB

 

Going into the draft process, I thought there was no way Watson would fall behind Tribusky after the national championship game.  

I think the main concern for him is actually his frame and his arm strength (although these were also part of the concerns for Mariota when he came out) because people don't think he can make all the throws.  I would take Watson over Tribusky because true arm strength actually effects maybe 5% of the throws in a game (as long as it's not Fitzpatrick level wobblers) and didn't think the difference warranted the change in perception.  

The other thing was the talent around Watson, because Clemson recruits extremely well now and they have studs on offense.  Williams is obviously a top tier talent, Cain is a possible first round pick next year (I believe Matt Miller had him as the No. 1 WR for next year's draft right now), Scott was extremely versatile, Renfroe was basically their Wayne Chrebet, and Legget was a sure handed TE with potential.  So he had a plethora of weapons to pick from, and that system is very good at taking advantage of defenses in college.  

It's spread like we saw from Gailey, but they just have athletes upon athletes that can over-match defenses.  I think that was one of the reasons why they were able to be the lone team that could score consistently on Alabama.  That defense thrives because they have the same caliber athletes on defense, where if you have a strength, they can play to stop that strength and still be fine.  If you see LSU games, you'll see the defense completely sold out to stop Fournette, dared them to beat them by throwing, and LSU didn't have a shot because they have guys in the defensive backfield that can stay with anyone.  The issue with Clemson was that, you couldn't focus on one area and take it away.  You focused on receivers?  Watson and the running game would get you.  You contain Watson and the running game?  The receivers were just too good for one on one.  The Alabama defense had to play a neutral game against Clemson and that is not their style.  It hurt Watson in the draft process because it's like a chicken and egg question.  Did the receivers make Watson, or did Watson make the receivers?

Clemson also runs a great amount of plays where their receivers can make plays, which is probably why they are WR U right now.  Williams was basically open even when he was covered because he was just so good at catching the ball at it's high point.  They take so many deep shots that CBs have to play with the go route in the back of their mind, which makes them very susceptible to the back shoulder pass.  And Clemson thrives on that pass, which just isn't the case in college because the QB needs to be on the same page with receivers for it to work.  

The one thing I loved about Watson was the angle he put on deep passes, because it really eliminates a trailing QB.  He would throw the ball higher, and let it drop in more often than laser passes (which of course could be construed as a lack of arm strength) which eliminates the CB trailing one yard back.  If you see deep passes with Brady, you will see the similar effect, because it just takes away any angle for the CB.  Now, I'm not sure how accurate he can be in the NFL with this throw, since it's easier knowing that your guy can just out muscle the CBs if it's under thrown, but I love that ability in a QB.  I think Geno had the opposite issue when he first came, trying to laser a pass in there, which lowered trajectory, and CBs would be able to make a play on the ball.  

Tribusky has more arm talent, and be able to make more throws across the field but I just didn't see it with him.  Not saying Watson isn't without risk, system and talent level could have masked bad qualities, but I just don't see the greatness of Tribusky.  I think the floor is somewhat high for him (although low for a No. 2 pick) but I just don't see the ceiling on him.  

However, the Bears did and Pace needs to save himself.  I'm actually kinda glad Macc didn't do the same thing, because he could have drafted Watson (or Mahomes at 6), and bought himself one more year by playing the "we have to give Petty/Hack a shot first" card, and then holding out the top pick until later in the year where it'd be too late to judge anything on.   

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On 5/3/2017 at 7:32 AM, varjet said:

Great post Win4ever.  I did not quote it because of its length.

I don't think anyone gives a high draft pick to trade for Glennon.  I think the QBs with trade value have lower salaries.  It is tough to pay someone and give up a draft pick. 

What they do get is a bridge QB and a potential future QB.  It is a decent QB story.  If they are drafting high again next year, they could always draft another QB high and either release Glennon or trade Trubisky. 

Hopefully Hack can play well enough to be at least a 2.  The Jets definitely add at least 1 QB next year.  It could be a draft pick or a FA, or both.  This is McCown and likely Petty's last year on the Jets..

Thanks.

If Glennon is average, which was what Bradford was with the Eagles, then I think someone forks over picks if need be.  Lets say the Cardinals, still trying to compete but Palmer is hurt or ineffective.  Or a similar team.  It's a risk, but I think it Glennon shows that he can just be average, some team will bite on him like the Texans bit on Osweiller.  Glennon is really only making the bottom tier of a starting QB money.  If we look at QB contracts for non rookie contract players, the next ones are Fitzpatrick (last year), McCown, etc.  His contract guarantees are extremely front loaded, so his dead money combined in Year 2 and 3 of that contract is right about the same as the hit we're taking on Fitz this year.  So it wouldn't be like Osweiller, where they just can't get rid of him if he sucks.  If he has an average year, Year 2 and 3 of that deal is very QB friendly with minimal risk, so they will look to see if they can unload him if Tribusky turns out good.  

I don't think they are going to be in the QB market next year.  If they have a very high pick (top 3) I expect them to trade out for a kings ransom to some QB needy team.  I personally think Pace is trying to save himself, so if he picks a high QB next year, his career is pretty much dependent on that guy.  However, if he trades out for a kings ransom, he buys himself two more years with "all those picks" and he hopes to find the QB somewhere, most likely via FA.  

I don't care about McCown, I really just hope he's an emergency QB.  I would really like to see Petty/Hack competition.  Everyone assumes Hack is the future, but I was impressed by Petty last year, even though the stats don't reflect it.  I'm not sure how he adjusts to the new offense, but I think the physical tools are there, and the mental tools were there in Gailey's system.  If he can pick up the new system, I wouldn't be surprised if Petty is the starter come Week 1.  

 

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