Watch this - QB Josh Allen

[Jetsfan80]

16 hours ago, legler82 said:

If we are talking about contemporizing the 60% rule then we need to also take into account the recent infestation of the Spread offense in college football which is grossly inflating the majority of prospects CMP%.  Petty completed 60+% of his passes in college and Geno completed 70+% of his passes his senior, coincidentally his only year he played in said system.  Would we classify either as being accurate?  Just from watching the tape, I'd say Allen is more accurate than Petty even though their college CMP%s would tell you different.  IMO on paper 60+ CMP% running the Spread in the Big 12 tells me about as much as 56 CMP% in the Mountain West running a pro-style offense, which is nothing!  Either way I'd need to see the tape.

 

It's been mentioned numerous times that a high completion % guarantees you nothing positive in the NFL.

But, aside from Stafford, a sub-60 % completion has been a certain death knell for every QB prospect.  So we might not know what a high completion % can get you, even amongst QB's who played in pro style offenses in college.  But we know for sure that lower completion %, regardless of the sh*tty circumstances surrounding such QB prospects, is really, really bad. 

[Jetsfan80]

9 hours ago, Paradis said:

If we're going to throw our 1st away on a QB who has inconsistent accuracy, but all the physical tools, I'll take Lamar Jackson over Josh Allen every day of the week, every week of the year. 

Yep.  At least with Lamar, we could give him a shot at WR if he can't make it as a QB. 

[Jetsfan80]

9 hours ago, k-met57 said:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/joe-montana-1.html

Yep.  1978 football is very applicable today.  You convinced me. 

Matthew Stafford is the only relevant example. 

[Jetsfan80]

16 hours ago, Joejet said:

You’ve probably heard of Dan Marino

|

						Passing
Year ▲	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
*1979	Pitt	Ind		QB	12	130	222	58.6	1680	7.6	6.6	10	9	128.9
*1980	Pitt	Ind		QB	12	116	224	51.8	1609	7.2	5.7	15	14	121.7
*1981	Pitt	Ind		QB	12	226	380	59.5	2876	7.6	6.8	37	23	143.1
*1982	Pitt	Ind		QB	12	221	378	58.5	2432	6.4	4.6	17	23	115.2
Career	Pitt					693	1204	57.6	8597	7.1	5.9	79	69	127.7

 

Again.  1982.  Not relevant. 

Jeezus.  How about we pull up Joe Namath's numbers at Alabama and stuff? 

And shame on you @HessStation for positive repping that post. 

[Jetsfan80]

15 hours ago, lounap23 said:

My response is about getting the guy you think is gonna be the franchise guy WHOEVER the GM/Coach/Scouts feel it is. Not about just drafting any QB    Be smart about it but get the GUY...  This sis why I wasn't upset with the trade up for Hack... He may be crap but if you evaluate him to be the guy and he's not gonna be there next tine you pick go get him.  And Sanchez was a good move but poor development from the coaching staff did him in.  If we had CS that could develop a QB he probably would still be the guy..

 

lol.  So the flawed process we used to take Hackenberg was fine, and you want to do it all over again with Allen?

[Jetsfan80]

14 hours ago, HessStation said:

What are you talking about? I just stated Allen would be my personal 6th choice of QB prospect. But The data doesn't prove he's an automatic bust. 

Unless 5 QB's go before Allen, we should be picking someone else at 6 then, no?  Who are you taking in that case?

[bla bla bla]

7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

lol.  So the flawed process we used to take Hackenberg was fine, and you want to do it all over again with Allen?

If Cousins, Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield aren't options and the consensus of NFL scouts feel Allen is a top 10 talent and Lamar Jackson doesn't have what it takes to be an NFL QB then I have no problem with Allen. He's just way further down my list. I'd want Jackson before him but I don't know if Jackson goes first round so that kind of scares me in my evaluation of him.

[Jetsfan80]

12 hours ago, maury77 said:

In Allen's defense, he is either running or pressured on all those throws. Hack blows a bubble screen with no pressure. Again, I'm not saying Allen is particularly accurate, but Hack is on another level. 

Which is why Hackenberg was a 2nd round pick (valued by other NFL GM's probably as a 3rd rounder or later) and Allen will go in the 1st.  But that doesn't make Allen a good pick because he's a better prospect than Hackenberg. 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

If Cousins, Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield aren't options and the consensus of NFL scouts feel Allen is a top 10 talent and Lamar Jackson doesn't have what it takes to be an NFL QB then I have no problem with Allen. He's just way further down my list. I'd want Jackson before him but I don't know if Jackson goes first round so that kind of scares me in my evaluation of him.

So you agree with me, essentially.  If the choice is Allen in the 1st or Jackson in the 2nd, I'm taking Jackson for sure. 

[bla bla bla]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

So you agree with me, essentially.  If the choice is Allen in the 1st or Jackson in the 2nd, I'm taking Jackson for sure. 

Yes ideally but that is not how it works. I'm not sure you can definitively say Jackson will be there at 37 when we are picking at 6. If we were a team like the Giants, Chargers, or Steelers that have an aging franchise QB then I make that play because I think you can fall back on Rudolph and Falk if Jackson isn't there. I don't think we are in the same position as a franchise. My sentiment is more so that I'd feel more comfortable taking Allen at 6 over Jackson at 6 for the reasons I stated previously even though I like Jackson more than Allen.

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, bla bla bla said:

Yes ideally but that is not how it works. I'm not sure you can definitively say Jackson will be there at 37 when we are picking at 6. If we were a team like the Giants, Chargers, or Steelers that have an aging franchise QB then I make that play because I think you can fall back on Rudolph and Falk if Jackson isn't there. I don't think we are in the same position as a franchise. My sentiment is more so that I'd feel more comfortable taking Allen at 6 over Jackson at 6 for the reasons I stated previously even though I like Jackson more than Allen.

Meh.  If someone else likes Jackson enough to take him before we can at 37, more power to them.  We don't HAVE to come out of the 1st two rounds with a QB.  If we take a QB, it needs to be the right one.  This regime has already d*cked around and taken Petty and Hack.  I'd rather them take no QB and give that task to the next regime instead of rushing in to take Allen just cuz. 

[Obrien2Toon]

If the top 3 are gone, you have to take a shot on him.

And Jackson should make the switch to WR.  Maybe carve out a B Smith type career

[maury77]

12 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Which is why Hackenberg was a 2nd round pick (valued by other NFL GM's probably as a 3rd rounder or later) and Allen will go in the 1st.  But that doesn't make Allen a good pick because he's a better prospect than Hackenberg. 

Oh, I agree with you. Hack should have been a 7th rounder. Realistically, Allen would ideally go in the 2nd round and sit behind a vet for a season or 2. Maybe the Browns sign Alex Smith for 2 years and pick Allen first overall. That scenario could work out. 

[HessStation]

26 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Unless 5 QB's go before Allen, we should be picking someone else at 6 then, no?  Who are you taking in that case?

Again, there isn't a slam dunk here but/so I would probably rank out something like this atm

1. Rosen

2. Jackson

3. Darnold

4. Mayfield

5. Falk

6. Allen

if they get Cousins I'd take either OL from Notre Dame or Chubb.

that's personal preference, I know Allen is going before Falk...but if they take Allen at 6 I'd get behind the pick bc he's a freaking QB with a high ceiling.

[JustInFudge]

16 hours ago, NoBowles said:

You realize that the difference between 56% and 60% is less than one completion per game? For argument sake, you don't think that receiving talent, offensive line talent, offensive system, opposition talent, etc. all play into the equation? I mean damn, one less throw away per game because of a sh*tty Line, one less drop or bad route, or dump off pass per game. This is what we are going to disqualify a QB prospect over, seriously? I don't know, its not like we have this sample of 300 franchise QB's in the last 20 years to gauge, we have about 20 of them. I only do statistics for a living, so I am probably not qualified, but this stat people are quoting like its the be all and end all seems silly to me, and I don't even like Allen as a prospect.

It's not the end all be all.  It's a starting point and a red flag.  You see a college player who cant complete more than 56% of his passes and it's a concern.  From there, you say, whoa his stats are god awful too. So then you look at his game log and you're like, yikes!!!  This dude has 3 games where he completed less than 45 all the way down to 38 with some turnovers sprinkled in and the red flag all of sudden looks like a blimp.

So then you actually look at his play and its embarrassing some of the throws he misses (Mogglez posted some of the misses) and then he sprinkles in legit wow moments.  And you're dismissing the one completion (though it wouldnt help him most games) but what if that one completion is the game changer/winner?  It's an indicator and its very reasonable to assume that someone who doesnt do something well in college is going to have a much harder time when everything is more difficult and the competition is a worlds apart. 

The 60% isnt the end all be all, it's a starting point but often the ending point.  Only 2 players have  had "success" at the next level who cant complete 60% in college, Stafford (debatable success) and Ryan who was a pubic hair under at 59.9.  When there is a historical trend (similar to the pass rusher work out metrics) that are rock solid, you should probably avoid that type of investment...that should make sense to someone who does this for a living.

 

[Lupz27]

40 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

Yes ideally but that is not how it works. I'm not sure you can definitively say Jackson will be there at 37 when we are picking at 6. If we were a team like the Giants, Chargers, or Steelers that have an aging franchise QB then I make that play because I think you can fall back on Rudolph and Falk if Jackson isn't there. I don't think we are in the same position as a franchise. My sentiment is more so that I'd feel more comfortable taking Allen at 6 over Jackson at 6 for the reasons I stated previously even though I like Jackson more than Allen.

Jackson going Top 10!

[Lupz27]

Josh Allen just notched his first check mark in the Pros side of the pros and cons list scouts sure will be keeping track of.

 

[prime21]

Wyoming QB Josh Allen said he wants "to be the guy that turns around" the Browns.

"The guy that does that is going to be immortalized in Cleveland forever," Allen added. "If I’m fortunate enough to become a Cleveland Brown, you can expect everything from me." This is almost a subtweet of UCLA QB Josh Rosen, who said he would rather "be a lower pick" than play for the "wrong team." A scout reportedly told MMQB's Peter King there is "no way" the Browns pass on Allen, so it is possible the quarterback gets his wish.

 

 

Source: CBS Cleveland

Jan 23 - 9:10 AM

 

[Lupz27]

2 minutes ago, prime21 said:

Wyoming QB Josh Allen said he wants "to be the guy that turns around" the Browns.

"The guy that does that is going to be immortalized in Cleveland forever," Allen added. "If I’m fortunate enough to become a Cleveland Brown, you can expect everything from me." This is almost a subtweet of UCLA QB Josh Rosen, who said he would rather "be a lower pick" than play for the "wrong team." A scout reportedly told MMQB's Peter King there is "no way" the Browns pass on Allen, so it is possible the quarterback gets his wish.

 

 

Source: CBS Cleveland

Jan 23 - 9:10 AM

 

Can the Jets please please please please please offer whatever it takes to swap 1st rounders with the Colts, ANYTHING, and get it done as soon as it’s legally allowed like 1 second into the new NFL season!

[HessStation]

19 minutes ago, Lupz27 said:

Can the Jets please please please please please offer whatever it takes to swap 1st rounders with the Colts, ANYTHING, and get it done as soon as it’s legally allowed like 1 second into the new NFL season!

Thinking the same. Somebody else pointed out if Denver got Cousins risking it at 6 but if Rosen is there at 3 I'd pull the trigger and trade up before somebody else does

[HessStation]

Here's the thing on Allen, if he was playing for Oregon would his comp % be 56... prob not

[flgreen]

NFL Draft 2018: The next Blake Bortles or Cam Newton? Josh Allen scouting report

Posted January 16, 2018 at 06:30 AM | Updated January 16, 2018 at 09:55 AM

 

 

 

 

7 shares

0 Comment

 

 

By Connor Hughes | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

Here's what the scouts are saying about Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen. Could he be an option for the Jets in the 2018 NFL Draft?

Brian Losness | AP Photo

An intriguing option

Mike Maccagnan's out of time. That two-year contract extension awarded to him by Jets acting owner Christopher Johnson looks nice and all, but if the fourth-year general manager wants to make it to Year 5, he has to find the Jets a franchise quarterback. 

Maccagnan foul-tipped 2015 fourth-round pick Bryce Petty. He whiffed mightily on 2016 second-round pick Christian Hackenberg. He must find some way to get on base this year. No matter the cost. 

While Kirk Cousins is an intriguing option in free agency, the Jets will likely look towards the draft to find their quarterback of the future. Josh Rosen (UCLA) and Sam Darnold (USC) aren't realistic options, but Wyoming's Josh Allen is. 

Over the next several weeks, we'll be profiling some of the top players in the 2018 NFL Draft. We'll kick things off with Allen. Here's what the experts are saying about him. 

 

 

The Measurables

Allen is straight out of the build-a-quarterback catalog. He's 6-5 and a solid 233 pounds. He's quite athletic, too. 

 

 

The stats

It wasn't the best year for Josh Allen statistically, although some of that has to do with subpar surrounding talent. After throwing for 3,203 yards and 28 touchdowns as a sophomore, his numbers dropped in near every category. 

Allen finished 2017 with a 56.3 completion percentage, 1,812 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and six interceptions. 

 

 

 

 

 

ProFootballFocus

Arm strength is at another level. One of the best arms we’ve seen in college football in years. Makes spectacular plays outside the pocket and on the move. Had the nation’s highest grade on passes thrown when scrambling. Had the highest percentage of big-time throws in the nation in 2016. Does not work well in the quick game. Often vacates the concept quickly in order to break the pocket and create outside of structure. Misses far too many throws. Had the 24th-highest percentage of negatively-graded throws in the nation and 20 turnover-worthy throws tied for 22nd. Sees the game much better when outside the pocket, but must improve his processing ability within the pocket.

 

 

Bucky Brooks, NFL.com

"After watching Allen in person, it's easy to see why the Ben Roethlisberger comparison has been thrown out by scouts across the league. He is big, athletic and physical with a gunslinger's mentality at the position. While those traits certainly evoke images of Roethlisberger, I believe Allen best compares to a more dynamic version of Blake Bortles. The Jacksonville Jaguars' QB1 has been the ultimate tease at the position for four seasons, exhibiting a mix of spectacular talent and questionable decisions. I see Allen in the same light as a talented playmaker with unrealized potential. He might eventually develop into a star at the position, but he could very well be the same player that he's always been at Wyoming -- an ultra-talented passer with an unpolished game."

 

 

 

Walter Football

"There are a lot of points of development that Allen needs for the NFL. He has accuracy issues and can miss on throws that should be easy completions. His ball security and decision-making need a lot of work as well. He threw too many interceptions over the past few seasons. Improving his accuracy and decision-making are the critical points of emphasis. Allen could be better off working on those in practice with a redshirt year at the pro level. Being forced to play right away could be too big of a jump for him as he is coming from a non-Power 5 level of competition. Allen did not have a good supporting cast at Wyoming, so he may have to change his thinking for the NFL and not put everything on his on shoulders." 

 

 

NFL Draft Diamonds

"Allen’s pure talent will have him considered as a top 10 pick, but a team that drafts him must be aware of his faults, if they want to develop him to his full potential. For Allen to reach his full potential, he should go to a team in a coaching situation that is offense oriented, with coaches who have developed QB’s in that past, and can do it again. Allen is not a day-1 starter in the NFL. It would be ideal for Allen if he went to a situation where he can learn behind a QB for at least half a season. Allen has the best arm I have ever seen in my time scouting QB’s. If Allen reaches his potential, he could be one of the best QB’s in the NFL."

 

 

 

 

 

Matt Miller, Bleacher Report

"Josh Allen has rare traits in terms of arm strength and athleticism; after watching him in person I'd say his arm is the strongest I've ever seen. Allen is able to make difficult throws from any platform and can easily throw a 25-yard out route on a line from the opposite hash. You could counter that and say neither Manning nor Tom Brady have a huge arm or great athleticism, but they're rare in terms of preparation, football IQ and leadership. Allen's physical traits are similar to Cam Newton; and he made it to a Super Bowl and won an MVP without being incredibly accurate. You could also compare his arm, agility and pure strength to a young Ben Roethlisberger; another player who had amazing success without being highly accurate."

 

 

Matt Bowen, ESPN

"This is about projecting talent. And the Wyoming quarterback has plenty of it. He's going to wow NFL teams in the pre-draft throwing sessions, and he should test well at the combine. Now, I don't see a top-15 prospect here, even projecting out his ceiling. But don't be surprised if he comes off the board much earlier than expected. Some team is going to bite. There's too much raw ability to pass up."

 

 

ESPN draft profile

"Allen is one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks to come out of college in the last five years. He needs to continue to add bulk to his frame, refine his mechanics and cut down on forced throws. But he makes a lot of plays that most quarterbacks simply cannot make. There will be Carson Wentz comps because of size, mobility, and playmaking ability. Wentz was a better decision-maker and more mature at this same point, but Allen is more physically gifted -- especially when it comes to raw arm talent. Allen is a work in progress but if developed properly he can become a high-level NFL starter. We expect him to be an early first round pick in 2018."

http://www.nj.com/jets/index.ssf/2018/01/scouting_reports_on_wyomings_josh_allen_could_he_b.html

[SMC]

1 hour ago, HessStation said:

Thinking the same. Somebody else pointed out if Denver got Cousins risking it at 6 but if Rosen is there at 3 I'd pull the trigger and trade up before somebody else does

If Allen goes 1, Macc needs to do everything in his power to move up to 3.  If he doesn't, he's a jackass.

[lounap23]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

lol.  So the flawed process we used to take Hackenberg was fine, and you want to do it all over again with Allen?

We don't have a choice.... Same Scouts, Same GM, Same HC.. the process is the same no matter what... Yes they missed on Hack  let's hope they don't miss on the next guy...    What process is there but to get the best QB (our flawed FO/CS think)  available?   The process isn't changing... And if they miss again they are gone this time next year.

If I had my choice I would have kept Mac, fired Bowles and went after DeFillipo and rely heavily on his input on which QB to take.  Then do whatever we have to, to get his guy.

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, HessStation said:

Here's the thing on Allen, if he was playing for Oregon would his comp % be 56... prob not

Cameron Coffman, the dude who started before Allen under the same Head Coach in the same system, completed 63% of his passes. And there is this in the Mountain West: 

1	Nick Stevens, QB	CSU	284	459	61.9	3799	8.3	76	29	10	13	147.9
2	Brett Rypien, QB	BSU	218	348	62.6	2877	8.3	87	16	6	20	143.8
3	Christian Chapman, QB	SDSU	146	243	60.1	1873	7.7	89	13	4	29	139.2
4	Ty Gangi, QB	NEV	228	374	61.0	2746	7.3	82	25	11	7	138.8
5	Marcus McMaryion, QB	FRES	218	351	62.1	2726	7.8	81	14	5	8	137.7
6	Dru Brown, QB	HAW	254	412	61.7	2785	6.8	85	18	8	30	129.0
7	Josh Allen, QB	WYO	152	270	56.3	1812	6.7	47	16	6

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, flgreen said:

Misses far too many throws. Had the 24th-highest percentage of negatively-graded throws in the nation and 20 turnover-worthy throws tied for 22nd

Weird.  It's almost like there is a stat out there that could tell you this story as well. 

[prime21]

NYG or Denver is where he should land.  Cleveland should assure themselves of Barkley at #1 and then take their pick of Darnods, Allen, Rosen or Mayfield with their next pick.  Any of them is better than what they have now and all have good potential.  They have money to spend so they can look to getting a better line to help the best back and one of the best QB's in the draft.

 

 

[HessStation]

4 minutes ago, JiF said:

Cameron Coffman, the dude who started before Allen under the same Head Coach in the same system, completed 63% of his passes. And there is this in the Mountain West: 

1	Nick Stevens, QB	CSU	284	459	61.9	3799	8.3	76	29	10	13	147.9
2	Brett Rypien, QB	BSU	218	348	62.6	2877	8.3	87	16	6	20	143.8
3	Christian Chapman, QB	SDSU	146	243	60.1	1873	7.7	89	13	4	29	139.2
4	Ty Gangi, QB	NEV	228	374	61.0	2746	7.3	82	25	11	7	138.8
5	Marcus McMaryion, QB	FRES	218	351	62.1	2726	7.8	81	14	5	8	137.7
6	Dru Brown, QB	HAW	254	412	61.7	2785	6.8	85	18	8	30	129.0
7	Josh Allen, QB	WYO	152	270	56.3	1812	6.7	47	16	6

I watched the BS game and was more interested in Rypien lol, not for the NFL per se but I think they said he's Mark's nephew.

[lounap23]

12 hours ago, Paradis said:

This isn't NY Jets fan club on Facebook. Lots of people here watched him play college ball. Like, Live games.

This are informed people give you informed opinions. Instead of dissmissing, absorb this wisdom. There's legit concern he might suck. 

Based on the comments it didn't come across to me like they watched any of his games and broke down his play, his OL's Play, his Wr's play... Just picked on a stat.  A stat which was highly affected by all of those factors in my opinion. 

I think I have a little wisdom to share as well..   That's the beauty of forums like this.  We give our thoughts and opinions and we can agree or disagree and go back and forth on subjects like this..   Wait 2-4 years and then see who is right... LOL!!

[HessStation]

2 minutes ago, prime21 said:

NYG or Denver is where he should land.  Cleveland should assure themselves of Barkley at #1 and then take their pick of Darnods, Allen, Rosen or Mayfield with their next pick.  Any of them is better than what they have now and all have good potential.  They have money to spend so they can look to getting a better line to help the best back and one of the best QB's in the draft.

 

 

No way in a zillion years does Cleveland screw around w the QB. I bet my house they take their favorite at 1. Just being realistic. 

[prime21]

1 minute ago, HessStation said:

No way in a zillion years does Cleveland screw around w the QB. I bet my house they take their favorite at 1. Just being realistic. 

Well if they are 100 percent sold one of the QB's then they have to.  But if they are split or their rankings are close then they should take the RB (if they want him)

[Beerfish]

I'll be elated if Allen goes one or two.  That means the jet suddenly have a legit shot at Darnold or Rosen.

[HessStation]

35 minutes ago, prime21 said:

Well if they are 100 percent sold one of the QB's then they have to.  But if they are split or their rankings are close then they should take the RB (if they want him)

I think any way you look at it it's QB 1 as they could potentially have to take their 3rd ranked Qb while there's a decent chance Barkley could still be there at 4. And you know no teams will pre rank prospects in ties heading into the draft. Plus, getting burned on Wentz, can't see it. Plus Trent Richardson.

i think you hope they like Allen so Rosen or Darnold are there at 3 is best case right now.

[Sperm Edwards]

18 hours ago, JiF said:

Then there should be no excuse to not complete at least 60%  

Remember the footage of Hack missing on a screen? 

 

 

I feel like this is a math word problem. If QBs need to complete passes 60% of the time, and and 50% of the teams run bubble screens 15 times per game, what percentage of bubbles are likely to be blown by a QB over the average 2.4 years as starter in college?

[Philc1]

23 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

Jay Cutler isn’t the only exception I’m aware of but he played with nobodies at Vanderbilt and faced SEC defenses every week — and Cutler was 58% better than both Hack and Hack 2.0 Josh Allen