Watch this - QB Josh Allen

[JustInFudge]

2 minutes ago, legler82 said:

Matthew Stafford completed 57.1% of his passes at Georgia.  Does he count?

hahahahaha 

Full disclosure - my first ever thread on JN was "trade everything for Matthew Stafford".  I was in love with him coming out.  I honestly didn't even look up his stats when I did this research because I just figured it would be higher.

So, there is an example out there. 

DRAFT JOSH ALLEN

I still think the overall theme is consistent with my point. 

 

[56mehl56]

7 minutes ago, flgreen said:

Yes, Allen folded.   With the exception of Iowa, and Oregon, most of Wyoming's  opponents weren't much better then HS football.

Gardner-Webb

Texas State

Utah St

Colorado St

Etc.   Not to many NCAA powerhouses there 

But what does it matter if his own team was worse than those you list.

[Jetsfan80]

7 minutes ago, lounap23 said:

NOW this I agree with 100%.... No matter if it's Allen, Darnold, Jackson, Rudolph, Mayfield, Rosen... Whoever just draft a QB...And lets finally get our Franchise guy!!

Just drafting a guy doesn't simply make him a franchise guy.  That's the big mistake people seem to be making.  You can't wish a QB into being your guy for the next decade just because you draft him high.  How did that work with Sanchez?

I'd rather draft no QB rather than draft the WRONG guy.  Make Bowles go into the season with Hackenberg, Petty, and a late rounder.  Tank properly, fire Macc and Bowles, hire a VP, THEN draft the RIGHT QB.  

[HessStation]

 

35 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

No no I mean we are all QB starved........

Exactly...hence I'm not writing off any of these top tier qb prosects

[JustInFudge]

2 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

There is some basis of evaluation for every stat. But, they should not be taken as gospel, and one should look for reasons for stats, not just the stat itself. And I understand the completion quotient and his conference.

But, if I were to believe the completion percentage, and its predictor of success, would I not also then have to believe that those with the highest completion percentage, should then have the best chance to succeeding? And I know we know that is not the case. 

People that get hung up on or a few stats and do not use more are doomed to be wrong often and miss out.

When you really break it down, the draft is largely a crap shoot.  The QB position being by far the toughest to gauge.  I was a history major and large part of my career is analyzing historic data.  So I tend to be a big fan of, "history repeats itself" and avoiding bad historical trends.

The 60% completion percentage (outside of Matt Stafford) has been a pretty rock solid piece of data to use when predicting future success.  I get that some of the most efficient passers in college, sucked in the pros...see Tim Tebow.  That said, I think that proving you do it well is the first step to proving you can do it when everything is harder.  So sure, you see a lot of people fail who complete a high percentage but you also see a lot of QB's carrying on that trend to the next level.  What you don't see often is someone being bad at something and getting better when everything is harder except for the one outlier, Matthew Stafford. 

 

[HessStation]

17 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

What if I don’t believe it’s a crap shoot? Is it weird then? 

I get everyone has an opinion. I do too. There are some QBs I'd like more than others. Whether Allen is your top choice or not, maybe bc you think he has less odds of success is fine, to a certain degree is all. I mean, it's like some people are burying him. And some just off of player comparisons to Hackenberg which is just dumb, player comparison are fun, like a game. Not meant to define a player. 

 

Dude, don't look at me. We'd have Garoppolo if it were Hess in charge.

[NoBowles]

I wonder if the statistics geniuses on this board realize that with less than 1 extra completion per game this season would have yielded the super duper magical 60% completion percentage that they all think is so crucial and mystical.

 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, JiF said:

When you really break it down, the draft is largely a crap shoot.  The QB position being by far the toughest to gauge.  I was a history major and large part of my career is analyzing historic data.  So I tend to be a big fan of, "history repeats itself" and avoiding bad historical trends.

The 60% completion percentage (outside of Matt Stafford) has been a pretty rock solid piece of data to use when predicting future success.  I get that some of the most efficient passers in college, sucked in the pros...see Tim Tebow.  That said, I think that proving you do it well is the first step to proving you can do it when everything is harder.  So sure, you see a lot of people fail who complete a high percentage but you also see a lot of QB's carrying on that trend to the next level.  What you don't see often is someone being bad at something and getting better when everything is harder except for the one outlier, Matthew Stafford. 

 

 

And Stafford ain't exactly in the GOAT territory.  He's a nice QB who was worthy of the # 1 overall pick because he's been able to be a guy you can build around.  But even when he had Calvin Johnson around he still had plenty of days where he did his damndest to miss him.  He's improved over time to the point where he's an above average QB, but he's not in the elite territory; more like Tier 2/3.

So even the posterboy for the only college QB in the last 25 years to to complete sub-60 % and have success still has accuracy issues in the pros and isn't quite the QB you'd hope to get when burning a high pick or, even worse, having to trade 2-3 first rounders to move up for.  

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, HessStation said:

I get everyone has an opinion. I do too. There are some QBs I'd like more than others. Whether Allen is your top choice or not, maybe bc you think he has less odds of success is fine, to a certain degree is all. I mean, it's like some people are burying him. And some just off of player comparisons to Hackenberg which is just dumb, player comparison are fun, like a game. Not meant to define a player. 

 

Dude, don't look at me. We'd have Garoppolo if it were Hess in charge.

 

It's not opinions.  It's history.  It's trends.  They're there for everyone to see. 

If it's really about rolling dice here, I'll speak your language.  The likelihood of Allen succeeding in the pros is like rolling 8 dice and them all coming up snake eyes.  Sure, it COULD happen.  But I'd rather let some other dope roll those dice.  

[maury77]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

And Stafford ain't exactly in the GOAT territory.  He's a nice QB who was worthy of the # 1 overall pick because he's been able to be a guy you can build around.  But even when he had Calvin Johnson around he still had plenty of days where he did his damndest to miss him.  He's improved over time to the point where he's an above average QB, but he's not in the elite territory; more like Tier 2/3.

So even the posterboy for the only college QB in the last 25 years to to complete sub-60 % and have success still has accuracy issues in the pros and isn't quite the QB you'd hope to get when burning a high pick or, even worse, having to trade 2-3 first rounders to move up for.  

Actually, didn't Stafford become the youngest QB to reach some statistical milestone?

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/18391715/matthew-stafford-detroit-lions-fastest-30000-passing-yards

[flgreen]

14 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

But what does it matter if his own team was worse than those you list.

Like I said I've watched the kid quite a bit this year.  Thought he was going to be good.  He wasn't.

IMO very long shot to be a successful NFL QB

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, maury77 said:

Actually, didn't Stafford become the youngest QB to reach some statistical milestone?

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/18391715/matthew-stafford-detroit-lions-fastest-30000-passing-yards

That's cool and all, but doesn't impress me much.  He's always been in an extremely pass-heavy offense, and usually, his team was playing from behind early in his career, and he was throwing against soft zones late in games to pile up garbage-time yards.  How many of those 30,000 yards came in meaningful moments?

Like I said, I'm not a Stafford hater.  If I'm the Lions, in that spot, I'm taking Stafford # 1 every single time.  But he doesn't exactly put a nail in the coffin to what we're arguing here:  College completion percentage matters.  A lot.  

[Jetsfan80]

Favre and Stafford vs. thousands of other young QB's.  Take your pick of what you think Allen becomes.  

[MDL_JET]

 

 

 

[Jetsfan80]

Big Ben has been mentioned a lot too.  He completed 65.5 % of his college throws, including 69.1 % in his Junior year.  

Ben also only ran the ball 269 times in his college career, as a 3-year starter.  Allen ran it 767 times, as a 2-year starter.  He only threw it 649 times. Also not a stat that works in Allen's favor here. 

Run-first QB who can't complete passes.  Sounds like a success story in the making!

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, MDL_JET said:

 

 

 

 

Oh well this changes everything

[MDL_JET]

 

 

 

[Smashmouth]

3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

One thing I noticed in the videos and other videos i have watched is this kid seems to throw on the run an awful lot. It seems his protection breaks down almost immediately which shows he has the pocket awareness to escape and make some plays. Obviously that does not mean hes going to develop into a good QB, but it will certainly hurt his accuracy. When he has time in the pocket and is able to use better mechanics he seems to throw a very nice ball with a very strong arm. Big question is how will this kid perform in the NFL ? Will he always look to escape the pocket prematurely ? Is he gun shy due to the lack of protection ? Lots of questions but from what I see I would say most of his problems with accuracy are not based on his talent they are based on him constantly being on the run.

 

2 hours ago, KRL said:

I watched Allen in 5-6 games this year against teams similar to and better than Wyoming.  There is
no denying his textbook size & tools.  He makes throws that make you drool and he has a frame that
projects to be like Newton & Roethlisberger.  But for someone who is supposed to be a top QB prospect
he never lifted his team against mediocre competition and when he stepped up in class (Iowa & Oregon)
he was overwhelmed.  He could be successful on the pro level but who was the last QB whose accuracy
and completion percentage improved going against the best in the world.  I'm totally petrified of
him as a prospect 

He was overwhelmed as in running for his life 

[namloc]

Big Ben has been mentioned a lot too.  He completed 65.5 % of his college throws, including 69.1 % in his Junior year.  
Ben also only ran the ball 269 times in his college career, as a 3-year starter.  Allen ran it 767 times, as a 2-year starter.  He only threw it 649 times. Also not a stat that works in Allen's favor here. 
Run-first QB who can't complete passes.  Sounds like a success story in the making!

He ran for 767 yards on 237 attempts.

[legler82]

Josh Allen is not as inaccurate as his CMP% just as Mayfield is not as accurate as his.  While he's definitely the least accurate of the consensus top 3 QBs, he's not grossly inaccurate to the point where it would hinder you from running a functioning NFL offense like Petty and Hack.  Allen, though not a naturally accurate passer, has the tools that a good OC can be schemed to a 60+ CMP% in the NFL.  As an example, Vick completed 60% of his passes under Reid's WCO and 53% prior to that.  A  bigger area of improvement is processing speed.  He tends to speed up his process way too much under pressure and not enough when not.

[SenorGato]

50 minutes ago, HessStation said:

I get everyone has an opinion. I do too. There are some QBs I'd like more than others. Whether Allen is your top choice or not, maybe bc you think he has less odds of success is fine, to a certain degree is all. I mean, it's like some people are burying him. And some just off of player comparisons to Hackenberg which is just dumb, player comparison are fun, like a game. Not meant to define a player. 

 

Dude, don't look at me. We'd have Garoppolo if it were Hess in charge.

Academic papers have been written on finding QBs in the draft!! It’s not some mystical process only the gods can divine!

http://daveberri.weebly.com/uploads/6/1/3/8/61387427/2011berrisimmonsjpa.pdf

FO took the Lewan concepts and have recalibrated it at least 3 teams with increasing accuracy!

By anything objective Allen will not be a good prospect. 

If you really want to get wild and go a sub-60% guy maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe Lamar Jackson post-combine and not with a first. 

[NoBowles]

36 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

There is some basis of evaluation for every stat. But, they should not be taken as gospel, and one should look for reasons for stats, not just the stat itself. And I understand the completion quotient and his conference.

But, if I were to believe the completion percentage, and its predictor of success, would I not also then have to believe that those with the highest completion percentage, should then have the best chance to succeeding? And I know we know that is not the case. 

People that get hung up on or a few stats and do not use more are doomed to be wrong often and miss out.

Fantastic post, I can't wait till the stat geeks all come in here and slap you with some LOL's as a comeback to this.

[CrazyCarl40]

11 minutes ago, MDL_JET said:

 

 

 

Allen and Bryce Petty can play Madden together. It all starts to make sense now. 

[joewilly12]

5 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

Allen and Bryce Petty can play Madden together. It all starts to make sense now. 

Well with that being said maybe Fitzpatrick and McCown spend a lot of time playing with themselves because they suck dude. 

[SenorGato]

1 hour ago, Scott Dierking said:

But, if I were to believe the completion percentage, and its predictor of success, would I not also then have to believe that those with the highest completion percentage, should then have the best chance to succeeding? And I know we know that is not the case. 

I know Scotty D is no longer a subscribed reader of my posts since the Cubs won in 2016, but how did this level of dismissing stats for flimsy, convenient logic like this work out then? 

It is as simple as which produces more busts? 

[CrazyCarl40]

3 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

Well with that being said maybe Fitzpatrick and McCown spend a lot of time playing with themselves because they suck dude. 

K

[NoBowles]

4 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

I know Scotty D is no longer a subscribed reader of my posts since the Cubs won in 2016, but how did this level of dismissing numbers for flimsy, convenient logic like this work out then? 

 

why don't you slap us over the head with a big dose of stats to tell us how what he is saying is wrong, rather than giving yourself a reach around for something you had no control over with the 2016 cubs?

[SMC]

1 hour ago, JiF said:

This was 1990.

There isn't an example since the turn of the century.  I've checked, numerous times.  Nobody has done it.  

There are some stats where history is undefeated when it comes to a successful transition into the NFL for QB's since the turn of the century and quite a few of them apply to the prospects this year: 

Run more than completes passes - Lamar Jackson

Less than 60% completion on their career - Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen

Played in the Big 12 - Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph

 

The bolded is a good point of emphasis.  It's 2018 and we're close to being 20 yrs into this century which means there has been a bunch of prospects evaluated and drafted in that span.  Players have had complete careers in that time.  That's a large enough time to make definitive statements on this point about completion percentage.

What Farve or anyone else did over 30 years ago becomes irrelevant.  That's like trying to make a QB argument in 1985 based on what happened in the 1950s.  It's a different game.

That said, there are so few good QBs out there that some team is going to pick Allen in the 1st and the rumors are that it will likely be the Browns in one of their two 1st round picks in the top 4.

[joewilly12]

Im glad I kept that #17 Braylon Edwards jersey I can remove the EDWARDS name plate and add ALLEN 

[SMC]

34 minutes ago, MDL_JET said:

 

 

 

Allen is like Cush from Jerry Maguire

[flgreen]

34 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Big Ben has been mentioned a lot too.  He completed 65.5 % of his college throws, including 69.1 % in his Junior year.  

Ben also only ran the ball 269 times in his college career, as a 3-year starter.  Allen ran it 767 times, as a 2-year starter.  He only threw it 649 times. Also not a stat that works in Allen's favor here. 

Run-first QB who can't complete passes.  Sounds like a success story in the making!

To be fair, Allen's not really a run first QB, circumstances created that stat.

[SenorGato]

Just now, NoBowles said:

why don't you slap us over the head with a big dose of stats to tell us how what he is saying is wrong, rather than giving yourself a reach around for something you had no control over with the 2016 cubs?

See the link posted earlier above

 

[jetfan39]

3 hours ago, joewilly12 said:

Josh Allen is better than any QB on the NY Jets roster. 

considering that the only qbs on our roster are hack and petty, for once you are right  

[flgreen]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Will he also have a 55% compl. % and 15+ INT's a year in the NFL?

Is this based on your watching the Rose Bowl?

[NoBowles]

7 minutes ago, SMC said:

The bolded is a good point of emphasis.  It's 2018 and we're close to being 20 yrs into this century which means there has been a bunch of prospects evaluated and drafted in that span.  Players have had complete careers in that time.  That's a large enough time to make definitive statements on this point about completion percentage.

What Farve or anyone else did over 30 years ago becomes irrelevant.  That's like trying to make a QB argument in 1985 based on what happened in the 1950s.  It's a different game.

That said, there are so few good QBs out there that some team is going to pick Allen in the 1st and the rumors are that it will likely be the Browns in one of their two 1st round picks in the top 4.

You realize that the difference between 56% and 60% is less than one completion per game? For argument sake, you don't think that receiving talent, offensive line talent, offensive system, opposition talent, etc. all play into the equation? I mean damn, one less throw away per game because of a sh*tty Line, one less drop or bad route, or dump off pass per game. This is what we are going to disqualify a QB prospect over, seriously? I don't know, its not like we have this sample of 300 franchise QB's in the last 20 years to gauge, we have about 20 of them. I only do statistics for a living, so I am probably not qualified, but this stat people are quoting like its the be all and end all seems silly to me, and I don't even like Allen as a prospect.