Draft Observation Top Heavy Bottom Heavy

[Adoni Beast]

Seems like there is an abundance of good OL talent in rounds 1-3 this year:

• We should be taking a Guard + OT in the first 3 rounds.

Good WR class:

• We should be looking at 1 or 2 speedsters to compliment our tall receivers...preferably one high and one in the later rounds.  

Deep corner class:

• I’d rather focus on O to avoid the pitfalls of The Ghosts our QB’s Past. But if a stud is there in the first 3 rounds, we have to consider it. But there is excellent value to be had in rounds 4-7 for perimeter and slot corners.

RBs deep:

• Decent value to be found in the 5th or the 6th. I’d expect us taking a RB then.

TEs top heavy:

• If we aren’t taking Brevin Jordan or Tommy Tremble by the end of the 3rd, we might as well forget TE all together this draft.

IDL:

• I don’t want to see any of our picks here. Ae have the depth. Please skip.

EDGE:

• Good but not great value throughout. Can definitely pick up a potential starter for our scheme anywhere from rounds 1-4.

SAFETY:

• Depth, especially at FS is thin and we have to lock up Maye long term. Wouldn’t be shocked to see us poking around FS’s in the middle rounds.

After everything is said and done I think we end up taking:

• 1 QB

• 2 OL

• 2 CBs

• 2 WRs

• 1 EDGE

• 1 RB

• 1 FS

[IntoTheGreen]

The only thing I would change here is LB for FS. We took a Safety last year and we can FT Maye another year if we can't lock him up. I see the point of again trying to create a pipeline and have people to step in when someone walks, but if we are looking to do that LB seems way more thin. We don't know what we have in Mosely and he can get cut next year, Davis is a one year flier, Cashman is prob. not a long term answer....then a lot of nothing. We need depth/ST here at minimum. 

[Paradis]

I think this is one of the more underwhelming drafts (offensively) of the last decade. If not for the drama surrounding those 2-3 QBs there would be very little talk about. Pitts....And a couple blue chip WRs. 

The back 7 on defense is where the cream of the draft is  

 

[kdels62]

I definitely don’t buy into the WR hype of this draft. The more hype Eskeridge and Darden get the more they go from good value in round 5 to over valued at the end of round 2. 

This draft has legit talent at OL, good LB depth and secondary help throughout. We can fill in those positions and get an edge somewhere we’ll be fine.

[32EBoozer]

8 hours ago, Paradis said:

3 hours ago, kdels62 said:

I definitely don’t buy into the WR hype of this draft. The more hype Eskeridge and Darden get the more they go from good value in round 5 to over valued at the end of round 2

Thankfully JD’s draft ranking system would tend to eliminate this possibility. It probably also allows for a couple of trade opportunities at #23 and #34. Could see JD trade back at #23 and then perhaps trade back up into Rd. 1. Same goes for 3rd round. I can see us acquiring 1 additional 3rd and another 5th with trades

[Sammybighead]

13 hours ago, Adoni Beast said:

Seems like there is an abundance of good OL talent in rounds 1-3 this year:

• We should be taking a Guard + OT in the first 3 rounds.

Good WR class:

• We should be looking at 1 or 2 speedsters to compliment our tall receivers...preferably one high and one in the later rounds.  

Deep corner class:

• I’d rather focus on O to avoid the pitfalls of The Ghosts our QB’s Past. But if a stud is there in the first 3 rounds, we have to consider it. But there is excellent value to be had in rounds 4-7 for perimeter and slot corners.

RBs deep:

• Decent value to be found in the 5th or the 6th. I’d expect us taking a RB then.

TEs top heavy:

• If we aren’t taking Brevin Jordan or Tommy Tremble by the end of the 3rd, we might as well forget TE all together this draft.

IDL:

• I don’t want to see any of our picks here. Ae have the depth. Please skip.

EDGE:

• Good but not great value throughout. Can definitely pick up a potential starter for our scheme anywhere from rounds 1-4.

SAFETY:

• Depth, especially at FS is thin and we have to lock up Maye long term. Wouldn’t be shocked to see us poking around FS’s in the middle rounds.

After everything is said and done I think we end up taking:

• 1 QB

• 2 OL

• 2 CBs

• 2 WRs

• 1 EDGE

• 1 RB

• 1 FS

I like the count of positions drafted you have. I generally agree, although I would hope to replace FS with TE

[IntoTheGreen]

10 hours ago, Paradis said:

I think this is one of the more underwhelming drafts (offensively) of the last decade. If not for the drama surrounding those 2-3 QBs there would be very little talk about. Pitts....And a couple blue chip WRs. 

The back 7 on defense is where the cream of the draft is  

 

Agreed. This WR class is nowhere near last years. RB seems ok, but I know you don't really love most of them (and I trust your opinion). Another reason to fill up on OL and take a shot or two in the mid rounds at a WR/RB who can take it to the house on any given play, but maybe not be a "starter." 

There will be some good talent on D in the last 4 rounds to get someone at every level.

[Wit]

.

[PepPep]

On 4/17/2021 at 5:12 PM, Adoni Beast said:

Seems like there is an abundance of good OL talent in rounds 1-3 this year:

• We should be taking a Guard + OT in the first 3 rounds.

Good WR class:

• We should be looking at 1 or 2 speedsters to compliment our tall receivers...preferably one high and one in the later rounds.  

Deep corner class:

• I’d rather focus on O to avoid the pitfalls of The Ghosts our QB’s Past. But if a stud is there in the first 3 rounds, we have to consider it. But there is excellent value to be had in rounds 4-7 for perimeter and slot corners.

RBs deep:

• Decent value to be found in the 5th or the 6th. I’d expect us taking a RB then.

TEs top heavy:

• If we aren’t taking Brevin Jordan or Tommy Tremble by the end of the 3rd, we might as well forget TE all together this draft.

IDL:

• I don’t want to see any of our picks here. Ae have the depth. Please skip.

EDGE:

• Good but not great value throughout. Can definitely pick up a potential starter for our scheme anywhere from rounds 1-4.

SAFETY:

• Depth, especially at FS is thin and we have to lock up Maye long term. Wouldn’t be shocked to see us poking around FS’s in the middle rounds.

After everything is said and done I think we end up taking:

• 1 QB

• 2 OL

• 2 CBs

• 2 WRs

• 1 EDGE

• 1 RB

• 1 FS

I think we take our QB.

Then we take 1 O-lineman high to plug and play and one o-lineman much later in the draft as a developmental prospect.

I'm not sold that we will take 2 CBs. I think the Jets coaching staff are MUCH higher on the current group of CBs than Jet fans are- for better or worse. I also think JD feels like there are plenty solid FA options still available to add to the group. I think they are targeting ONE CB somewhere around the 3rd round (Trill Williams comes to mind). You also have to think about the roster. Exactly how many CBs do the Jets plan to carry. They have Bless, Hall, Hardee guaranteed a roster spot. They have Guidry and Jackson who are promising young CBs. You add ONE rookie and that adds up to 6 CBs. Drafting another one kind of forces your hand to cut someone (or put on PS) you might not want to cut. And it puts you in a position where you have too much youth playing on the field. You WANT to add a vet after the draft instead of drafting a second CB late. IMO. 

I can see the Jets drafting 2 WRs but I can also see them taking one and being happy with that. Just depends on how the draft breaks down. If they end up drafting Rondale Moore in Rd. 2, I could see them holding off on drafting another WR. There are only so many roster spots. Davis, Mims, Crowder, Cole, Moore- none of these guys are getting cut. But then there is V.Smith, J.Smith, Scott, Montgomery, Malone, Berrios, Cager. So if you draft ANOTHER WR, who do you cut? I mean, are you cutting or PS ALL of the other guys I listed? 

I definitely see us getting an edge. But its seeming more and more like its someone versatile enough to play OLB. Whats not mentioned in this post is the dire lack of depth at OLB and uncertainty at the ILB position. I think Z.Collins will be a REAL consideration at 23 depending on how the draft plays out. Otherwise, I think they will look for a scheme specific Will later on in the draft (Jacoby Stevens LB/S comes to mind somewhere in the 4th/5th rd. range).  

I could see the Jets drafting a safety but as I mentioned above we will probably draft a hybrid SS/LB to play close to the line. We are thin at the FS position but we have Maye, we signed Joyner and we have Davis who can play both FS and SS. Its ruly not as bad as it seems. If JD can sign a vet in FA for depth, which I don't see why he can't, the group should be fine.  

Finally RB. This is an interesting position. I truly think the Jets feel extremely flexible at RB. I think if they came out of the draft with no RB they would be fine with who they have. However, it is clear they have done their due diligence up and down the draft to scout RBs, especially guys they could get in the mid-late rounds who fit the system in a committee role. They met with Najee Harris but they have also been linked to Michael Carter, Khalil Herbert, Jermar Jefferson. All guys projected to in the 3rd round or after. Personally, I think they go after Herbert with their 4th rd. pick, but thats obviously just a guess based on fit and value. The only way they end up taking a guy like Harris is if they move down early, address other needs and Harris somehow slides to them where the value is just to great for them to pass on him. I highly doubt that happens.   

[Adoni Beast]

12 minutes ago, PepPep said:

I think we take our QB.

Then we take 1 O-lineman high to plug and play and one o-lineman much later in the draft as a developmental prospect.

I'm not sold that we will take 2 CBs. I think the Jets coaching staff are MUCH higher on the current group of CBs than Jet fans are- for better or worse. I also think JD feels like there are plenty solid FA options still available to add to the group. I think they are targeting ONE CB somewhere around the 3rd round (Trill Williams comes to mind). You also have to think about the roster. Exactly how many CBs do the Jets plan to carry. They have Bless, Hall, Hardee guaranteed a roster spot. They have Guidry and Jackson who are promising young CBs. You add ONE rookie and that adds up to 6 CBs. Drafting another one kind of forces your hand to cut someone (or put on PS) you might not want to cut. And it puts you in a position where you have too much youth playing on the field. You WANT to add a vet after the draft instead of drafting a second CB late. IMO. 

I can see the Jets drafting 2 WRs but I can also see them taking one and being happy with that. Just depends on how the draft breaks down. If they end up drafting Rondale Moore in Rd. 2, I could see them holding off on drafting another WR. There are only so many roster spots. Davis, Mims, Crowder, Cole, Moore- none of these guys are getting cut. But then there is V.Smith, J.Smith, Scott, Montgomery, Malone, Berrios, Cager. So if you draft ANOTHER WR, who do you cut? I mean, are you cutting or PS ALL of the other guys I listed? 

I definitely see us getting an edge. But its seeming more and more like its someone versatile enough to play OLB. Whats not mentioned in this post is the dire lack of depth at OLB and uncertainty at the ILB position. I think Z.Collins will be a REAL consideration at 23 depending on how the draft plays out. Otherwise, I think they will look for a scheme specific Will later on in the draft (Jacoby Stevens LB/S comes to mind somewhere in the 4th/5th rd. range).  

I could see the Jets drafting a safety but as I mentioned above we will probably draft a hybrid SS/LB to play close to the line. We are thin at the FS position but we have Maye, we signed Joyner and we have Davis who can play both FS and SS. Its ruly not as bad as it seems. If JD can sign a vet in FA for depth, which I don't see why he can't, the group should be fine.  

Finally RB. This is an interesting position. I truly think the Jets feel extremely flexible at RB. I think if they came out of the draft with no RB they would be fine with who they have. However, it is clear they have done their due diligence up and down the draft to scout RBs, especially guys they could get in the mid-late rounds who fit the system in a committee role. They met with Najee Harris but they have also been linked to Michael Carter, Khalil Herbert, Jermar Jefferson. All guys projected to in the 3rd round or after. Personally, I think they go after Herbert with their 4th rd. pick, but thats obviously just a guess based on fit and value. The only way they end up taking a guy like Harris is if they move down early, address other needs and Harris somehow slides to them where the value is just to great for them to pass on him. I highly doubt that happens.   

I’d love for us to take a TE in the 2nd or 3rd.

Unfortunately we have 6 dog sh*t TEs on the roster now...so I’m not sure we’ll even be looking in that direction.

[Chrebetfan80]

On 4/18/2021 at 4:38 AM, kdels62 said:

I definitely don’t buy into the WR hype of this draft. The more hype Eskeridge and Darden get the more they go from good value in round 5 to over valued at the end of round 2. 

This draft has legit talent at OL, good LB depth and secondary help throughout. We can fill in those positions and get an edge somewhere we’ll be fine.

This is an important piece.  I love darden but I love him in the 5th or later... not earlier.  

Guys are getting a lot of hype in this WR group and its true its very deep but not with top tier round 1/2 talent.  i would argue there are 3 first rounders (maybe 4) and a few 2nd round guys then its alot of 3/4/5 guys. 

Its deep in the sense you can get a contributing player in the 4th, but not if theres a run and these guys get overdrafted.  Last year there was arguably 5-6 first round caliber guys. 

[Chrebetfan80]

23 hours ago, PepPep said:

I think we take our QB.

Then we take 1 O-lineman high to plug and play and one o-lineman much later in the draft as a developmental prospect.

I'm not sold that we will take 2 CBs. I think the Jets coaching staff are MUCH higher on the current group of CBs than Jet fans are- for better or worse. I also think JD feels like there are plenty solid FA options still available to add to the group. I think they are targeting ONE CB somewhere around the 3rd round (Trill Williams comes to mind). You also have to think about the roster. Exactly how many CBs do the Jets plan to carry. They have Bless, Hall, Hardee guaranteed a roster spot. They have Guidry and Jackson who are promising young CBs. You add ONE rookie and that adds up to 6 CBs. Drafting another one kind of forces your hand to cut someone (or put on PS) you might not want to cut. And it puts you in a position where you have too much youth playing on the field. You WANT to add a vet after the draft instead of drafting a second CB late. IMO. 

I can see the Jets drafting 2 WRs but I can also see them taking one and being happy with that. Just depends on how the draft breaks down. If they end up drafting Rondale Moore in Rd. 2, I could see them holding off on drafting another WR. There are only so many roster spots. Davis, Mims, Crowder, Cole, Moore- none of these guys are getting cut. But then there is V.Smith, J.Smith, Scott, Montgomery, Malone, Berrios, Cager. So if you draft ANOTHER WR, who do you cut? I mean, are you cutting or PS ALL of the other guys I listed? 

I definitely see us getting an edge. But its seeming more and more like its someone versatile enough to play OLB. Whats not mentioned in this post is the dire lack of depth at OLB and uncertainty at the ILB position. I think Z.Collins will be a REAL consideration at 23 depending on how the draft plays out. Otherwise, I think they will look for a scheme specific Will later on in the draft (Jacoby Stevens LB/S comes to mind somewhere in the 4th/5th rd. range).  

I could see the Jets drafting a safety but as I mentioned above we will probably draft a hybrid SS/LB to play close to the line. We are thin at the FS position but we have Maye, we signed Joyner and we have Davis who can play both FS and SS. Its ruly not as bad as it seems. If JD can sign a vet in FA for depth, which I don't see why he can't, the group should be fine.  

Finally RB. This is an interesting position. I truly think the Jets feel extremely flexible at RB. I think if they came out of the draft with no RB they would be fine with who they have. However, it is clear they have done their due diligence up and down the draft to scout RBs, especially guys they could get in the mid-late rounds who fit the system in a committee role. They met with Najee Harris but they have also been linked to Michael Carter, Khalil Herbert, Jermar Jefferson. All guys projected to in the 3rd round or after. Personally, I think they go after Herbert with their 4th rd. pick, but thats obviously just a guess based on fit and value. The only way they end up taking a guy like Harris is if they move down early, address other needs and Harris somehow slides to them where the value is just to great for them to pass on him. I highly doubt that happens.   

I have a hard time disagreeing with any of this honestly. 

I agree i think unless Farley falls out of round 1 and is sitting on our laps at 34, the jets pass on CB until later rounds if at all.. There is still a comfortable amount of quality players in FA where the jets could add to that group.  Also i agree they definitely feel way better about the guys we have on the roster already than most fans do.

I posted some mocks i did on the mock draft thread and it came very similar to what youre suggesting. 

[jetstream23]

Given Saleh's Cover-3 and zone type schemes in the secondary I really prefer the idea of double-dipping later in the Draft by taking two CBs sometime on Day 3 rather than getting an elite type guy out of the first 2-3 rounds. @PepPep thoughts?  There could be a lot of 4-2-5 formations on D.  I think Saleh wants a lot of DBs, even if one or two end up on the practice squad.

Even looking at what the Jets have now in presumptive starters Bryce Hall and Bless Austin, those are 5th and 7th round finds.

[Sperm Edwards]

23 hours ago, PepPep said:

I think we take our QB.

Then we take 1 O-lineman high to plug and play and one o-lineman much later in the draft as a developmental prospect.

I'm not sold that we will take 2 CBs. I think the Jets coaching staff are MUCH higher on the current group of CBs than Jet fans are- for better or worse. I also think JD feels like there are plenty solid FA options still available to add to the group. I think they are targeting ONE CB somewhere around the 3rd round (Trill Williams comes to mind). You also have to think about the roster. Exactly how many CBs do the Jets plan to carry. They have Bless, Hall, Hardee guaranteed a roster spot. They have Guidry and Jackson who are promising young CBs. You add ONE rookie and that adds up to 6 CBs. Drafting another one kind of forces your hand to cut someone (or put on PS) you might not want to cut. And it puts you in a position where you have too much youth playing on the field. You WANT to add a vet after the draft instead of drafting a second CB late. IMO. 

I can see the Jets drafting 2 WRs but I can also see them taking one and being happy with that. Just depends on how the draft breaks down. If they end up drafting Rondale Moore in Rd. 2, I could see them holding off on drafting another WR. There are only so many roster spots. Davis, Mims, Crowder, Cole, Moore- none of these guys are getting cut. But then there is V.Smith, J.Smith, Scott, Montgomery, Malone, Berrios, Cager. So if you draft ANOTHER WR, who do you cut? I mean, are you cutting or PS ALL of the other guys I listed? 

I definitely see us getting an edge. But its seeming more and more like its someone versatile enough to play OLB. Whats not mentioned in this post is the dire lack of depth at OLB and uncertainty at the ILB position. I think Z.Collins will be a REAL consideration at 23 depending on how the draft plays out. Otherwise, I think they will look for a scheme specific Will later on in the draft (Jacoby Stevens LB/S comes to mind somewhere in the 4th/5th rd. range).  

I could see the Jets drafting a safety but as I mentioned above we will probably draft a hybrid SS/LB to play close to the line. We are thin at the FS position but we have Maye, we signed Joyner and we have Davis who can play both FS and SS. Its ruly not as bad as it seems. If JD can sign a vet in FA for depth, which I don't see why he can't, the group should be fine.  

Finally RB. This is an interesting position. I truly think the Jets feel extremely flexible at RB. I think if they came out of the draft with no RB they would be fine with who they have. However, it is clear they have done their due diligence up and down the draft to scout RBs, especially guys they could get in the mid-late rounds who fit the system in a committee role. They met with Najee Harris but they have also been linked to Michael Carter, Khalil Herbert, Jermar Jefferson. All guys projected to in the 3rd round or after. Personally, I think they go after Herbert with their 4th rd. pick, but thats obviously just a guess based on fit and value. The only way they end up taking a guy like Harris is if they move down early, address other needs and Harris somehow slides to them where the value is just to great for them to pass on him. I highly doubt that happens.   

If they were only targeting CB only as early as round 3, with the rationalization specifically being they could just sign a remaining FA, then why wouldn't they have signed their preferred FA corner already?

Hardee's a special teams gunner and that's really it; that his nominal position is CB is incidental. He could be listed as a WR (his position in college) and that wouldn't change what he's here for. He's a 40-time. Honestly he only has $1MM guaranteed, so if push came to shove he's not a mandatory roster spot. I'm a little surprised at how much he got - there literally are starting tackles that make less (e.g. Beachum) - but I do agree that everyone can't be a rookie.

I'm certainly not seeing the compulsion to stay away from drafting a second corner; not merely because of the likes of Jackson or Guidry, let alone because of Jackson and Guidry both. 

Plus the flip-side of worrying (about a numbers-game boxing out someone they like) is they're otherwise forced into keeping one of these 3rd-rate talents because there's no one else worth a damn even among the camp fodder. 

[football guy]

It's a top heavy 1st round, but weaker than usual from 11-25. Round 2 is flush with talent, round 3 and round 4 are so so. Round 5-7 are pretty strong and there are bound to be players who were missed that go in that range.  

[GreenReaper]

12 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

Given Saleh's Cover-3 and zone type schemes in the secondary I really prefer the idea of double-dipping later in the Draft by taking two CBs sometime on Day 3 rather than getting an elite type guy out of the first 2-3 rounds. @PepPep thoughts?  There could be a lot of 4-2-5 formations on D.  I think Saleh wants a lot of DBs, even if one or two end up on the practice squad.

Even looking at what the Jets have now in presumptive starters Bryce Hall and Bless Austin, those are 5th and 7th round finds.

A very good pass rush can better cover for a mediocre secondary.  Then a very good secondary can compensate for a DL that's comprised of just good run stoppers and are mediocre in the pass rush.  QBs that have time in the pocket can pick apart a good secondary.  And you're only going to get an occasional cover sack at best.  Saleh's 4-2-5 approach is to put constant pressure on the QB with a rotating stable of quality DL pass rushers with fresh legs throughout the game.  Relying on the back seven to cover and make plays on the ball. 
 

I think of it as pure behavioral science.  Putting the QB in a Skinner Box of horrors.  Lol...creating a stimulus response mechanism of fear and loathing in a QB...due to so much pressure.  IMO this is what Saleh's trying to do.  And for him...I don't think he can ever have enough quality edge rushers for his DL.  Therefore...drafting a Jaelan Phillips or a Kwity Paye, could make Jets pass rush most elite in the league.  Certainly top three. 

So...IMO...the only defensive position I would draft in rounds 1-2 would be for edge.   But concede that a quality LB could be picked here also.

I've been drafting two corners in rounds 3-6.  Most in rounds 4-6.  Concentrating offense and edge in rounds 1-3.  

[Adoni Beast]

11 hours ago, GreenReaper said:

A very good pass rush can better cover for a mediocre secondary.  Then a very good secondary can compensate for a DL that's comprised of just good run stoppers and are mediocre in the pass rush.  QBs that have time in the pocket can pick apart a good secondary.  And you're only going to get an occasional cover sack at best.  Saleh's 4-2-5 approach is to put constant pressure on the QB with a rotating stable of quality DL pass rushers with fresh legs throughout the game.  Relying on the back seven to cover and make plays on the ball. 
 

I think of it as pure behavioral science.  Putting the QB in a Skinner Box of horrors.  Lol...creating a stimulus response mechanism of fear and loathing in a QB...due to so much pressure.  IMO this is what Saleh's trying to do.  And for him...I don't think he can ever have enough quality edge rushers for his DL.  Therefore...drafting a Jaelan Phillips or a Kwity Paye, could make Jets pass rush most elite in the league.  Certainly top three. 

So...IMO...the only defensive position I would draft in rounds 1-2 would be for edge.   But concede that a quality LB could be picked here also.

I've been drafting two corners in rounds 3-6.  Most in rounds 4-6.  Concentrating offense and edge in rounds 1-3.  

The other thing about corners that people rarely mention is the lack of prime longevity. Their shelf life is similar to a running back. There’s just too much wear and tear. You’re maximizing 5-7 years. 

I’m fine with taking a corner round 1/2 if he is one of the final pieces to our team. But when you’re rock bottom rebuilding like we are...I’d rather build up elsewhere with guys who could be here a decade.

Other side to the coin — depends on how the boars falls. Can’t pass up a stud corner high if the other positions available are meh.