Jet fans have gone from "Fire Everyone" to "The window to win a Super Bowl in now".

[football guy]

18 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

Indeed.

We can all agree Wilson shouldn't be judged on whether Breece Hall makes it another couple of yards.

But, thus far, he's not strong in the advanced metrics, and he's not passing the eye test.  He's had a few strong moments, but otherwise has been largely ineffective throwing the ball.

I think its just us seeing things differently. I like JT O'Sullivan's content and he can probably do a better job of explaining why the team is happy with where Zach is at in his analysis of the Pittsburgh game... naturally that is the one where Zach came from behind and was lights out in the 4th quarter so there are more accolades that come with that performance, but I can tell you they were just as impressed with Zach's command in the Miami game. He was not as good against the Packers but they were happy with his ability to step up and make 4 big throws in the second half. It may seem like baby steps, but they want him to keep stacking performances like this because they know when it all clicks, it will start producing some fun results. They don't want to make things too simple and let him throw it all over the yard the way the Cardinals have done with Kyler Murray because that's not a sustainable brand of football... they want him to learn how to be a QB first, then let him display his playmaking ability later. 

 

[Maxman]

39 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

One of the challenges with appreciating that is that within the games, being methodical with him and hiding him are virtually indistinguishable.

Joe Flacco wasn't able to be hidden.

[Maxman]

7 minutes ago, football guy said:

I think its just us seeing things differently. I like JT O'Sullivan's content and he can probably do a better job of explaining why the team is happy with where Zach is at in his analysis of the Pittsburgh game... naturally that is the one where Zach came from behind and was lights out in the 4th quarter so there are more accolades that come with that performance, but I can tell you they were just as impressed with Zach's command in the Miami game. He was not as good against the Packers but they were happy with his ability to step up and make 4 big throws in the second half. It may seem like baby steps, but they want him to keep stacking performances like this because they know when it all clicks, it will start producing some fun results. They don't want to make things too simple and let him throw it all over the yard the way the Cardinals have done with Kyler Murray because that's not a sustainable brand of football... they want him to learn how to be a QB first, then let him display his playmaking ability later. 

 

It really does seem like the broke him down to build him back up. Such a crazy concept here, that we might have a young QB with talent and he is being managed properly. Last year was tough with the passing of the QB coach. Since then they have really seemed to have the kids best interests in mind. 

That started last year with game planning differently for him. Then the roster additions, make no mistake about this the weapons are real.

I love the thought of them winning games and letting Zach be a game manager right now. Avoiding Interceptions and learning when to take chances.

It is such an exciting time!

[ZachEY]

16 minutes ago, football guy said:

I think its just us seeing things differently. I like JT O'Sullivan's content and he can probably do a better job of explaining why the team is happy with where Zach is at in his analysis of the Pittsburgh game... naturally that is the one where Zach came from behind and was lights out in the 4th quarter so there are more accolades that come with that performance, but I can tell you they were just as impressed with Zach's command in the Miami game. He was not as good against the Packers but they were happy with his ability to step up and make 4 big throws in the second half. It may seem like baby steps, but they want him to keep stacking performances like this because they know when it all clicks, it will start producing some fun results. They don't want to make things too simple and let him throw it all over the yard the way the Cardinals have done with Kyler Murray because that's not a sustainable brand of football... they want him to learn how to be a QB first, then let him display his playmaking ability later. 

 

I watched the video when it was released.  JT O'Sullivan is the best there is, and yes, there were plenty of points of optimism.  Obviously, the 4th Q was at a level we can all be happy with.  That said, Zach is ineffective for long periods of time and that's concerning.  I just said in another thread, that Zach would be tied for 29th in DYAR and 28th in DVOA if there wasn't a 90-pass minimum to qualify for the list.  That is objectively not good.  It seems like the game plan is to minimize his impact on the game.  That's okay as far as winning goes at the moment, but much like your concerns re: Murray and sustainability, I certainly have my concerns that scoring 3 points in the first half is going to be sustainable.

[ZachEY]

44 minutes ago, Maxman said:

Joe Flacco wasn't able to be hidden.

Joe Flacco isn't the answer either.  But, I think it's also hard not to acknowledge that the team is playing at a much higher level now, including the offensive line and the defense then when Flacco was in.  In fact, the only position group not playing as well is the WRs, who are most impacted by who's at QB.  I think we can agree that the makeshift offensive line has settled a bit, and Brown is back, so that's helped.  Also, the Ravens 24 points were the least allowed in the first 3 games, while the Steelers 20 was the most in the past 3.  Point being, I don't think the QB change was the catalyst of going from 1-2 to 3-0.

[T0mShane]

22 minutes ago, Maxman said:

It really does seem like the broke him down to build him back up. Such a crazy concept here, that we might have a young QB with talent and he is being managed properly. Last year was tough with the passing of the QB coach. Since then they have really seemed to have the kids best interests in mind. 

That started last year with game planning differently for him. Then the roster additions, make no mistake about this the weapons are real.

I love the thought of them winning games and letting Zach be a game manager right now. Avoiding Interceptions and learning when to take chances.

It is such an exciting time!

What I find irreconcilable is, when did this plan to slow-walk Zach’s development begin? He threw 37 passes in his first career start and averaged around 34 passing attempts over his first five games. I wonder who in the building pulled the string on him after the early New England debacle where he got himself killed. Was it Saleh? LaFleur? Douglas? Did they just overestimate the kid’s readiness? To be clear, I love that they pulled the e-brake on him and are letting him earn his pass attempts, but I think it’s a situation where the whole organization had a come-to-Jesus moment at some point and completely rewrote the script of how they were going to develop Zach Wilson. 

[slats]

6 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

What I find irreconcilable is, when did this plan to slow-walk Zach’s development begin? He threw 37 passes in his first career start and averaged around 34 passing attempts over his first five games. I wonder who in the building pulled the string on him after the early New England debacle where he got himself killed. Was it Saleh? LaFleur? Douglas? Did they just overestimate the kid’s readiness? To be clear, I love that they pulled the e-brake on him and are letting him earn his pass attempts, but I think it’s a situation where the whole organization had a come-to-Jesus moment at some point and completely rewrote the script of how they were going to develop Zach Wilson. 

They ****ed up last year by throwing him into the fire, and I think they know it. They should’ve held onto Flacco and promised him at least four starts to start the season, bare minimum. But this is a rookie head coach and rookie coordinator (and second year GM) that we’re talking about here, and -imho- they were under the impression that this job they took on was going to be a lot easier than it’s turned out to be. 
 
But what’s done is done. It does appear that they’ve hit the reset button. 

[football guy]

49 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

I watched the video when it was released.  JT O'Sullivan is the best there is, and yes, there were plenty of points of optimism.  Obviously, the 4th Q was at a level we can all be happy with.  That said, Zach is ineffective for long periods of time and that's concerning.  I just said in another thread, that Zach would be tied for 29th in DYAR and 28th in DVOA if there wasn't a 90-pass minimum to qualify for the list.  That is objectively not good.  It seems like the game plan is to minimize his impact on the game.  That's okay as far as winning goes at the moment, but much like your concerns re: Murray and sustainability, I certainly have my concerns that scoring 3 points in the first half is going to be sustainable.

Eh I don't see things this way. This isn't a situation like how the Jets used Sanchez way back when; they're not game planning around him and running just to run, rather they're running to close out games. There have been a lot of things that contributed to the stagnant stretches of offense and Zach has contributed towards that, but I disagree that they are deliberately game planning in a way to minimize his impact on the game... I don't care what the analytics nerds say, that's just objectively wrong. 

As I mentioned previously, he did not have a good game against Green Bay early on, but they weren't "hiding" him. First drive of the game they're asking him to throw an out to Garrett Wilson against the Packers' best defender to gain 1 yard on 3rd down... 14 of the first 27 plays were pass plays (including the 2 penalties which were also pass plays). In the 3rd quarter, they called 6 passes to 5 runs. The next play of that drive occurred in the 4th quarter, which was a Breece Hall TD. They did not throw a single pass in the 4th quarter. Against Miami, they came out passing. We dropped back to throw 16 of 30 times in the first half and were up 19 to 14 going into the second half. Miami scored a FG to open the second half, the Jets continued to call a balanced attack in the 3rd quarter, then to open up the 4th quarter Zach completes 3-of-3 passes for 45 yards with Michael Carter punching it in from the 1 to conclude a 7 play, 56 yard drive. Next play Miami fumbles, we run 1 play and score. No need to pass for the rest of the game. 

We can go on and on about this, but I think you're associating the lack of passing with an intent to hide Zach which couldn't be further from the case. It just so happens that they've been much more competitive since Zach has been in the lineup, which has allowed them to run the offense they want to run - a balanced "Shanahan" offense that utilizes the run and play-action to set up the pass. They haven't abandoned the passing offense until they have a 10+ point leads, which has been the case the last 2 weeks. But if its a one score game or coming from behind, the entire playbook is open for Zach...   

[ZachEY]

36 minutes ago, football guy said:

Eh I don't see things this way. This isn't a situation like how the Jets used Sanchez way back when; they're not game planning around him and running just to run, rather they're running to close out games. There have been a lot of things that contributed to the stagnant stretches of offense and Zach has contributed towards that, but I disagree that they are deliberately game planning in a way to minimize his impact on the game... I don't care what the analytics nerds say, that's just objectively wrong. 

As I mentioned previously, he did not have a good game against Green Bay early on, but they weren't "hiding" him. First drive of the game they're asking him to throw an out to Garrett Wilson against the Packers' best defender to gain 1 yard on 3rd down... 14 of the first 27 plays were pass plays (including the 2 penalties which were also pass plays). In the 3rd quarter, they called 6 passes to 5 runs. The next play of that drive occurred in the 4th quarter, which was a Breece Hall TD. They did not throw a single pass in the 4th quarter. Against Miami, they came out passing. We dropped back to throw 16 of 30 times in the first half and were up 19 to 14 going into the second half. Miami scored a FG to open the second half, the Jets continued to call a balanced attack in the 3rd quarter, then to open up the 4th quarter Zach completes 3-of-3 passes for 45 yards with Michael Carter punching it in from the 1 to conclude a 7 play, 56 yard drive. Next play Miami fumbles, we run 1 play and score. No need to pass for the rest of the game. 

We can go on and on about this, but I think you're associating the lack of passing with an intent to hide Zach which couldn't be further from the case. It just so happens that they've been much more competitive since Zach has been in the lineup, which has allowed them to run the offense they want to run - a balanced "Shanahan" offense that utilizes the run and play-action to set up the pass. They haven't abandoned the passing offense until they have a 10+ point leads, which has been the case the last 2 weeks. But if its a one score game or coming from behind, the entire playbook is open for Zach...   

I care about what the analytics "nerds" say, because they're the closest thing we have to objective reality and comparisons to others that control for as many variables as possible.  They are, however, not saying anything about the gameplan.  The data is saying that he's performing poorly relative to his peers.  That data confirms my view of what's happening on the field when I watch the games.

And, as far as hiding him, that's just how I see it.  I agree we haven't needed to pass late.  But, early on, we clearly changed from the Flacco game plan, and in that time, he hasn't been terribly effective.  You're right, no need to debate any further, but to me, it was the approach after injury last year, and it's the same this year.  The added benefit is that we can win without much from the QB now.  So, that's super nice.  But, it's also not necessarily sustainable in the modern NFL.

Ultimately, I hope this is just a step in development, but I've got my doubts.  Significant ones.

[slats]

26 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

But, early on, we clearly changed from the Flacco game plan, and in that time, he hasn't been terribly effective.

Do you really think there was a Flacco game plan? They were behind roughly 179 minutes and 38 seconds over the course of those three games. I’d say that was the primary reason behind the pass happy attack. I think Breece Hall going from < 50% of the snaps in the first three games to > 67% in the last three has a lot more to do with his development than the QB’s, although it certainly helps everyone on offense (except those feeling left out, I suppose). 

[ZachEY]

Just now, slats said:

Do you really think there was a Flacco game plan? They were behind roughly 179 minutes and 38 seconds over the course of those three games. I’d say that was the primary reason behind the pass happy attack. I think Breece Hall going from < 50% of the snaps in the first three games to > 67% in the last three has a lot more to do with his development than the QB’s, although it certainly helps everyone on offense (except those feeling left out, I suppose). 

I think it's clear they were throwing the ball more with Flacco.  Was that because they were behind?  Maybe.  But, those numbers were high even for being behind.

[Irish Jet]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

What I find irreconcilable is, when did this plan to slow-walk Zach’s development begin? He threw 37 passes in his first career start and averaged around 34 passing attempts over his first five games. I wonder who in the building pulled the string on him after the early New England debacle where he got himself killed. Was it Saleh? LaFleur? Douglas? Did they just overestimate the kid’s readiness? To be clear, I love that they pulled the e-brake on him and are letting him earn his pass attempts, but I think it’s a situation where the whole organization had a come-to-Jesus moment at some point and completely rewrote the script of how they were going to develop Zach Wilson. 

That New England game traumatised everyone. Myself included.

[doitny]

4 hours ago, batman10023 said:

your assumptions are that we won't be able to draft well to replace some of our guys.

that being said, outside of a few negative nellies - most here probably are hoping for more than 4 more wins this year.  our schedule gets a bit easier.

i think it will be hard to replace alot of these guys. cant count on a HR every draft. the great teams hit on the QB and that allows them to make some mistakes.

maybe i wrote this wrong  but i meant we have 11 games left. i think it will take 9 wins to make the playoffs. so if we go 4-7 that puts us at 8-9 and we miss it. barring any significant injuries if Zach is bad we are going to have to have some serious talks about who our QB is next year.

like you said most of us expect more wins. i expect the playoff this year. 

[doitny]

4 hours ago, batman10023 said:

why do you think Mac and now Zappe are outplaying Zach?

is it due to Zach or coaching or system?

in terms of year 3 personally i agree with you.  i want to see real progress in year 2 otherwise bring someone else in.

the stats. even if you say we run a differant offense Mac still had a better comp %

and Zappe is a 4th rd rookie nobody and is throwing at 70%. Zach is at 55% 

thats all im trying to say is i have to see real progress now too. and after 3 games i dont.

[Packers12]

I think you guys can beat NE twice.

[slats]

2 minutes ago, Packers12 said:

I think you guys can beat NE twice.

[football guy]

2 hours ago, ZachEY said:

I care about what the analytics "nerds" say, because they're the closest thing we have to objective reality and comparisons to others that control for as many variables as possible.  They are, however, not saying anything about the gameplan.  The data is saying that he's performing poorly relative to his peers.  That data confirms my view of what's happening on the field when I watch the games.

And, as far as hiding him, that's just how I see it.  I agree we haven't needed to pass late.  But, early on, we clearly changed from the Flacco game plan, and in that time, he hasn't been terribly effective.  You're right, no need to debate any further, but to me, it was the approach after injury last year, and it's the same this year.  The added benefit is that we can win without much from the QB now.  So, that's super nice.  But, it's also not necessarily sustainable in the modern NFL.

Ultimately, I hope this is just a step in development, but I've got my doubts.  Significant ones.

The same analytics community had Zach Wilson in the top 10 of most categories entering the GB game. One subpar game against a good defense in a 3 game stretch is going to impact those ranking significantly, especially in a blowout victory when the team only passes in 3 quarters and TOP through those quarters favors GB due to turnovers/blocked punt TD. 

Not looking to pick on you but it just seems like you’re trying to dig yourself out of a position by making highly fallacious arguments. In Flacco’s 3 starts the Jets threw the ball 61 times in the first half to 94 times in the second half. Flacco threw ZERO passes with a lead, 7 when tied, and 148 from behind. To cap this off: a whopping 39.4% of Flacco’s attempts came in the 4th quarter (61 total) versus 12.9% (20 total) in the first quarter. 

Wilson? 41 times in the first half, 34 times in the second half. 40 attempts with a lead, 19 when tied, and 16 attempts when behind. 20% of his attempts in the 4th quarter (12 of 15 total came against PIT) versus 24% in the first quarter (18 total).

The Flacco script was no different than the Wilson script; the difference was game flow and point differential. If you want to watch Zach throw 40+ times, then root for us to be losing by 7+ points entering the second half. 

[doitny]

7 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Dude stop.  You’re off on a rant.  My point stands, most start off poorly.  Very few, a ridiculously small percentage start out strong.  Don’t know why you’re fixated in tearing Aikman down the claiming he didn’t start off poorly.

i just went back 10 years and 22 first rd QBs and they ALL had good 2nd years even the half that were busts. Zach will be hard pressed to get to even Josh Allens 2nd year numbers. so your wrong on a small percentage starts out strong. 

this aint the 90s bro. Zach is not getting 3 or 4 years to show us something.  if he doesnt show us real improvement by the end of the year i think this whole board will agree to move on from him.

i just proved to you that Aikman avg 13 TDs and 2700 yds in his career. his 2nd year stats had 11 TDs and 2500 yds. how is that struggling when thats who he was for his career? 

i mean if you got to go back to the 90s to find QBs that struggled in their 2nd year thats not todays NFL. we are not going to judge Zach by 1990s standards.

Josh Allen the guy everyone brings up made real improvement from year 1 to 2.  comp% +6, Yds +1,000, TDs +10. i dont think its asking too much for Zach to improve on his 1st year stats.

[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, doitny said:

i just went back 10 years and 22 first rd QBs and they ALL had good 2nd years even the half that were busts. Zach will be hard pressed to get to even Josh Allens 2nd year numbers. so your wrong on a small percentage starts out strong. 

this aint the 90s bro. Zach is not getting 3 or 4 years to show us something.  if he doesnt show us real improvement by the end of the year i think this whole board will agree to move on from him.

i just proved to you that Aikman avg 13 TDs and 2700 yds in his career. his 2nd year stats had 11 TDs and 2500 yds. how is that struggling when thats who he was for his career? 

i mean if you got to go back to the 90s to find QBs that struggled in their 2nd year thats not todays NFL. we are not going to judge Zach by 1990s standards.

Josh Allen the guy everyone brings up made real improvement from year 1 to 2.  comp% +6, Yds +1,000, TDs +10. i dont think its asking too much for Zach to improve on his 1st year stats.

You’re just bored I guess.   If you watched Aikman career you would know he struggled.  
But do keep,arguing.  As I made a simple comment MOST QBs STRUGGLE before they become stars.  I can name all those who hit the ground running on one hand.  Argue that all you want

[FidelioJet]

7 hours ago, football guy said:

I think its just us seeing things differently. I like JT O'Sullivan's content and he can probably do a better job of explaining why the team is happy with where Zach is at in his analysis of the Pittsburgh game... naturally that is the one where Zach came from behind and was lights out in the 4th quarter so there are more accolades that come with that performance, but I can tell you they were just as impressed with Zach's command in the Miami game. He was not as good against the Packers but they were happy with his ability to step up and make 4 big throws in the second half. It may seem like baby steps, but they want him to keep stacking performances like this because they know when it all clicks, it will start producing some fun results. They don't want to make things too simple and let him throw it all over the yard the way the Cardinals have done with Kyler Murray because that's not a sustainable brand of football... they want him to learn how to be a QB first, then let him display his playmaking ability later. 

 

This is really nice to hear that internally they’re happy with his progress.  They’re bringing him up the right way. 

[Matt39]

Yeah I haven’t gotten the vibe that the Jets are purposefully hiding Wislon. His game is unorthodox and things don’t look like a prototypical QB but they’re winning right now so you just hope he continues to figure it out. Wilson has ability that’s for sure I think. He’s improved his sack rate which at least is something you can point to as a temporary win besides being 3-0.

[ZachEY]

2 hours ago, football guy said:

The same analytics community had Zach Wilson in the top 10 of most categories entering the GB game. One subpar game against a good defense in a 3 game stretch is going to impact those ranking significantly, especially in a blowout victory when the team only passes in 3 quarters and TOP through those quarters favors GB due to turnovers/blocked punt TD. 

Not looking to pick on you but it just seems like you’re trying to dig yourself out of a position by making highly fallacious arguments. In Flacco’s 3 starts the Jets threw the ball 61 times in the first half to 94 times in the second half. Flacco threw ZERO passes with a lead, 7 when tied, and 148 from behind. To cap this off: a whopping 39.4% of Flacco’s attempts came in the 4th quarter (61 total) versus 12.9% (20 total) in the first quarter. 

Wilson? 41 times in the first half, 34 times in the second half. 40 attempts with a lead, 19 when tied, and 16 attempts when behind. 20% of his attempts in the 4th quarter (12 of 15 total came against PIT) versus 24% in the first quarter (18 total).

The Flacco script was no different than the Wilson script; the difference was game flow and point differential. If you want to watch Zach throw 40+ times, then root for us to be losing by 7+ points entering the second half. 

I don't know what analytics community you're subscribing to, but Football Outsiders was not a fan of him before, and it got worse after.  Specifically, prior to Green Bay, he had a DYAR of 19 and a DVOA of -6.2.

On Flacco vs. Wilson game plans, are you trying to insinuate that the 20 more times Flacco threw in the first half over just 3 games (more than Wilson threw in one full game and less by one pass in another) was wholly because the team was behind?  Because, against the Ravens, they were down 10 at one point, and ended the half down 7.  Against the Browns, they were down 7 on two different occasions, never down more than that, and tied at the half.  The Bengals game is the only game where you could make the argument they abandoned the run early.  I'd also suspect that types of passes called was more conservative under Wilson vs. Flacco, but I don't have any data on that.

[ZachEY]

27 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

This is really nice to hear that internally they’re happy with his progress.  They’re bringing him up the right way. 

I mean, in fairness, while I don't question that this poster has some insider knowledge, the last guy he told us they were really happy with was traded away quickly thereafter, then that team decided that despite paying him 18M this year he was so bad they were still going to replace him and with Baker Mayfield, and now, after an injury, I think it's probably universally accepted that he's done in the league.

I'm just saying, feel what you want about Wilson, but this may not be the ringing endorsement you're hoping it to be.

[doitny]

44 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

I mean, in fairness, while I don't question that this poster has some insider knowledge, the last guy he told us they were really happy with was traded away quickly thereafter, then that team decided that despite paying him 18M this year he was so bad they were still going to replace him and with Baker Mayfield, and now, after an injury, I think it's probably universally accepted that he's done in the league.

I'm just saying, feel what you want about Wilson, but this may not be the ringing endorsement you're hoping it to be.

i agree.

i dont doubt what Football guy says there saying. just like 95% of this board is saying. were winning, he will get better. we are only a 1/4 thru his 2nd season. but if he continues on this pace he is going to have numbers way worst that Josh Allens 2nd season. even Sam Darnold had a good 2nd season numbers. then i would like to hear what kind of metrics or analytics they see that he deserves a 3rd year. 

[football guy]

2 hours ago, ZachEY said:

I don't know what analytics community you're subscribing to, but Football Outsiders was not a fan of him before, and it got worse after.  Specifically, prior to Green Bay, he had a DYAR of 19 and a DVOA of -6.2.

On Flacco vs. Wilson game plans, are you trying to insinuate that the 20 more times Flacco threw in the first half over just 3 games (more than Wilson threw in one full game and less by one pass in another) was wholly because the team was behind?  Because, against the Ravens, they were down 10 at one point, and ended the half down 7.  Against the Browns, they were down 7 on two different occasions, never down more than that, and tied at the half.  The Bengals game is the only game where you could make the argument they abandoned the run early.  I'd also suspect that types of passes called was more conservative under Wilson vs. Flacco, but I don't have any data on that.

Yes, in fact I am saying that. The team has played from behind for a total of 1/12 quarters in the past 3 games. Over the first 3 games it was 12/12. And if you’re insinuating the pass plays being called for Wilson are more conservative than Flacco you just make it even more obvious that you’re either not watching the games or don’t know what you’re watching lol… it’s incredible to me how you continue to argue this point. Not only did Mike LaFleur say that they couldn’t keep putting the offense in situations where they became one dimensional by throwing the ball 50+ times because it’s not winning football, it’s abundantly clear watching the games that the Jets became pass heavy when they fell behind in the first 3 games versus maintained a balanced playcalling approach when they’ve had the lead or tied. They had ran 16 times against BAL (to 59 passes), 18 rushes to 44 passes against CLE, and 20 rushes to 52 passes against CIN and you’re acting as if they went into the games wanting to do that lol… It’s almost as if your argument is that running a balanced offense with a lead is indicative of the QB is not ready or capable of orchestrating the offense as designed, while passing the ball 40+ times in games where we’re playing from behind in 11 of 12 quarters with the backup QB is also an indication that the starter is not capable of running the offense. And the most lunic part about this is game situations. It’s one thing if the Jets were throwing the ball 40 times and winning by 20+ points like the Chiefs in week 1 or the Bills in week 2, but that’s not what they were doing… they were throwing heavily because they were losing, just as they did against Pittsburgh in the 4th quarter. LaFleur is not afraid to throw the ball in shootouts, but as long as he’s the OC the Jets won’t be a team that chucks the ball 40 times in a blowout win regardless if it’s Wilson under center or Tom Brady in his prime… that’s just not his philosophy. 

I’m just at a loss. I guess stick to the spreadsheets and we’ll revisit this in a few weeks

[SuicidalSince98]

We need to stop hyper analyzing every micro moment like it’s the end all. Packers played well on D, they have a great secondary, it was 45 and raining, we had a lead, running game was working.

1st drive, tip ball on third down on a play that was going to be a big gain. Second drive, terrible third down call by lefleur and GW runs a poor route short of the sticks. Third drive, penalties and a sack. It was just a struggle for a variety of reasons. 
 

Wilsons “mistakes” in this game were a pass behind GW on 3rd and 1 and an incomplete pass on a risky red zone throw. Other than that it was the Miami performance again. He made a couple of big throws in the second half to score and then the game blew open with the running game. 

[football guy]

2 hours ago, ZachEY said:

I mean, in fairness, while I don't question that this poster has some insider knowledge, the last guy he told us they were really happy with was traded away quickly thereafter, then that team decided that despite paying him 18M this year he was so bad they were still going to replace him and with Baker Mayfield, and now, after an injury, I think it's probably universally accepted that he's done in the league.

I'm just saying, feel what you want about Wilson, but this may not be the ringing endorsement you're hoping it to be.

The Jets were prepared to move forward with Sam if they weren’t blown away by the QBs and if they were blown away by the offers for the #2 pick. Fact. They felt he could be the revitalized as a QB who can run their offense with an improved supporting cast a la a Jimmy Garoppolo-like game manager but with a little more playmaking ability outside of structure. They ultimately decided that Zach Wilson was too talented to pass up, so they moved Sam to the highest bidder and that team, like the Jets pre-Douglas/Saleh, is a dumpster fire. 

Last year Sam started hot in Carolina, then as the offensive line and skill positions crumbled so did his play. As the team around him crumbled he tried playing through a broken shoulder which made things worse, his dysfunctional head coach beefs with the OC mid-season due to philosophical differences and ultimately fires him. What can you possibly expect? 

The one thing I was wrong about with Sam is his durability. He’s clearly injury prone and that’s just unfortunate. Otherwise, he’s been a victim of his situation every single season of his NFL career. 

[ZachEY]

6 hours ago, football guy said:

Yes, in fact I am saying that. The team has played from behind for a total of 1/12 quarters in the past 3 games. Over the first 3 games it was 12/12. And if you’re insinuating the pass plays being called for Wilson are more conservative than Flacco you just make it even more obvious that you’re either not watching the games or don’t know what you’re watching lol… it’s incredible to me how you continue to argue this point. Not only did Mike LaFleur say that they couldn’t keep putting the offense in situations where they became one dimensional by throwing the ball 50+ times because it’s not winning football, it’s abundantly clear watching the games that the Jets became pass heavy when they fell behind in the first 3 games versus maintained a balanced playcalling approach when they’ve had the lead or tied. They had ran 16 times against BAL (to 59 passes), 18 rushes to 44 passes against CLE, and 20 rushes to 52 passes against CIN and you’re acting as if they went into the games wanting to do that lol… It’s almost as if your argument is that running a balanced offense with a lead is indicative of the QB is not ready or capable of orchestrating the offense as designed, while passing the ball 40+ times in games where we’re playing from behind in 11 of 12 quarters with the backup QB is also an indication that the starter is not capable of running the offense. And the most lunic part about this is game situations. It’s one thing if the Jets were throwing the ball 40 times and winning by 20+ points like the Chiefs in week 1 or the Bills in week 2, but that’s not what they were doing… they were throwing heavily because they were losing, just as they did against Pittsburgh in the 4th quarter. LaFleur is not afraid to throw the ball in shootouts, but as long as he’s the OC the Jets won’t be a team that chucks the ball 40 times in a blowout win regardless if it’s Wilson under center or Tom Brady in his prime… that’s just not his philosophy. 

I’m just at a loss. I guess stick to the spreadsheets and we’ll revisit this in a few weeks

 

6 hours ago, football guy said:

The Jets were prepared to move forward with Sam if they weren’t blown away by the QBs and if they were blown away by the offers for the #2 pick. Fact. They felt he could be the revitalized as a QB who can run their offense with an improved supporting cast a la a Jimmy Garoppolo-like game manager but with a little more playmaking ability outside of structure. They ultimately decided that Zach Wilson was too talented to pass up, so they moved Sam to the highest bidder and that team, like the Jets pre-Douglas/Saleh, is a dumpster fire. 

Last year Sam started hot in Carolina, then as the offensive line and skill positions crumbled so did his play. As the team around him crumbled he tried playing through a broken shoulder which made things worse, his dysfunctional head coach beefs with the OC mid-season due to philosophical differences and ultimately fires him. What can you possibly expect? 

The one thing I was wrong about with Sam is his durability. He’s clearly injury prone and that’s just unfortunate. Otherwise, he’s been a victim of his situation every single season of his NFL career. 

I think, in general, the guy who said Sam Darnold was good, and lashed out at anyone who questioned him, should humble himself a wee bit when talking Jets QBs, before claiming others don’t know what they’re watching.

[ZachEY]

7 hours ago, doitny said:

i agree.

i dont doubt what Football guy says there saying. just like 95% of this board is saying. were winning, he will get better. we are only a 1/4 thru his 2nd season. but if he continues on this pace he is going to have numbers way worst that Josh Allens 2nd season. even Sam Darnold had a good 2nd season numbers. then i would like to hear what kind of metrics or analytics they see that he deserves a 3rd year. 

I don’t doubt that that’s the message he’s getting… I doubt whoever the messenger is is getting the truth, in this type of instance.

Do you think that the only 3 guys who matter, Douglas, Saleh, and Lafluer, would leak anything outside of their inner circle that’s negative about Wilson right now?

[football guy]

3 hours ago, ZachEY said:

 

I think, in general, the guy who said Sam Darnold was good, and lashed out at anyone who questioned him, should humble himself a wee bit when talking Jets QBs, before claiming others don’t know what they’re watching.

Fake news. I never said Sam was good. I said the coaching staff and front office felt he was talented and his career could be revitalized with a talented supporting cast and a new scheme. I agreed with that sentiment, but you won't find a single post where I say that it was my preference to stick with him over Zach Wilson. My personal choice was Zach- I thought he was by far the most talented QB in the draft class dating back to October 2020, and I posted the "receipts" on this very site. I understood the Jets needing to do their due diligence, and I would've understood if they traded #2 for a massive haul of 3 first round picks and 2 second round picks while taking Kyle Pitts (their top non-QB in that class) because whether or not Sam panned out, they would've been stacked with draft capital to go find someone in the future. It turned out to be moot point because Woody and Joe Douglas decided they wanted to go with Zach in March and the coaches became smitten with him as time went on. But when Saleh initially interviewed and was hired, it was a real consideration that the Jets could move forward with Sam for at least one year... Go find a single post where I say anything otherwise. You won't, but because you dug yourself in a whole with an asinine take, you feel it necessary to put words in my mouth for the sake of trying to save your own credibility. Its pathetic.

[RedBeardedSavage]

This is why this board is so addicting...

I get to read two posters with more football knowledge and general intelligence than me get increasingly snarky and passive aggressive about three games played by a second year quarterback.

[football guy]

11 hours ago, doitny said:

i agree.

i dont doubt what Football guy says there saying. just like 95% of this board is saying. were winning, he will get better. we are only a 1/4 thru his 2nd season. but if he continues on this pace he is going to have numbers way worst that Josh Allens 2nd season. even Sam Darnold had a good 2nd season numbers. then i would like to hear what kind of metrics or analytics they see that he deserves a 3rd year. 

This is where I bang my head on the table though. If you ask any reputable talent evaluator or scout to review the small sample of Zach's performances through these 3 games this year versus Sam's best 3 games in his 2nd season, not a single individual would say that Sam had a more impressive performance with the exception being possibly the Raiders game. The same people who get so invested in the stats are the ones who were saying "the Jets have a real chance in 2020 because Tom Brady is gone and Josh Allen is a bust"... there's a lot more that you have to look at which stats do not capture.

Regardless, we're not going to be winning every game for the majority of the time. There will be games that we're down by a little, down by a lot, or tied. Zach is going to throw the ball, and if anyone needs to receipt this they can plaster it on their living room wall. But its just an asinine take to act like the team is coddling him when they are calling the game the way they would call it regardless who the QB is in these situations... if they're winning by 7+ points or more they're going to lean on the run game; that's how this team is built. 

It isn't rocket science... teams throw the ball more when they are playing from behind/losing games. 

Through Zach's 15 career starts which he played a full game (eliminating @NE 2021 due to injury), here are his splits: 

• Win by 7+ points: 19.5 ATT/G (2 games) 
• Win by 1-7 points: 29.0 ATT/G (4 games) 
• Lose by 1-7 points: 31.25 ATT/G (4 games) 
• Lose by 7+ points: 33.6 ATT/G (5 games) 

For all those who want to compare to Josh Allen's usage in his first and second year, look at his splits in his first 26 starts (eliminating NYJ 2019 because he played 2 series): 

• Win by 7+ points: 25.75 ATT/G (8 games) 
• Win by 1-7 points: 27.7 ATT/G (7 games) 
• Lose by 1-7 points: 31.4 ATT/G (7 games) 
• Lose by 7+ points: 35.25 ATT/G (4 games) 

 

Again, not rocket science. Most teams pass less when they have leads. Understandably as a fan you want to see Zach have more TDs and less INTs, which will come, but this whole notion that they are purposefully trying to "hide" him, or that they have to call a more "simple" offense when he's in, is just ridiculous. If Zach's 3 pass plays didn't get stopped at the 1 yard line, this entire narrative gets blown to shreds. It's mind boggling.  

For those who want to see his stats pop off the sheet like Kyler Murray's did in his 1st-2nd years, you might as well be rooting for the Jets to be playing from behind most games. Not only is it against the Shanahan offense philosophy, it is not sustainable. 

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

8 minutes ago, football guy said:

This is where I bang my head on the table though. If you ask any reputable talent evaluator or scout to review the small sample of Zach's performances through these 3 games this year versus Sam's best 3 games in his 2nd season, not a single individual would say that Sam had a more impressive performance with the exception being possibly the Raiders game. The same people who get so invested in the stats are the ones who were saying "the Jets have a real chance in 2020 because Tom Brady is gone and Josh Allen is a bust"... there's a lot more that you have to look at which stats do not capture.

Regardless, we're not going to be winning every game for the majority of the time. There will be games that we're down by a little, down by a lot, or tied. Zach is going to throw the ball, and if anyone needs to receipt this they can plaster it on their living room wall. But its just an asinine take to act like the team is coddling him when they are calling the game the way they would call it regardless who the QB is in these situations... if they're winning by 7+ points or more they're going to lean on the run game; that's how this team is built. 

It isn't rocket science... teams throw the ball more when they are playing from behind/losing games. 

Through Zach's 15 career starts which he played a full game (eliminating @NE 2021 due to injury), here are his splits: 

• Win by 7+ points: 19.5 ATT/G (2 games) 
• Win by 1-7 points: 29.0 ATT/G (4 games) 
• Lose by 1-7 points: 31.25 ATT/G (4 games) 
• Lose by 7+ points: 33.6 ATT/G (5 games) 

For all those who want to compare to Josh Allen's usage in his first and second year, look at his splits in his first 26 starts (eliminating NYJ 2019 because he played 2 series): 

• Win by 7+ points: 25.75 ATT/G (8 games) 
• Win by 1-7 points: 27.7 ATT/G (7 games) 
• Lose by 1-7 points: 31.4 ATT/G (7 games) 
• Lose by 7+ points: 35.25 ATT/G (4 games) 

 

Again, not rocket science. Most teams pass less when they have leads. Understandably as a fan you want to see Zach have more TDs and less INTs, which will come, but this whole notion that they are purposefully trying to "hide" him, or that they have to call a more "simple" offense when he's in, is just ridiculous. If Zach's 3 pass plays didn't get stopped at the 1 yard line, this entire narrative gets blown to shreds. It's mind boggling.  

For those who want to see his stats pop off the sheet like Kyler Murray's did in his 1st-2nd years, you might as well be rooting for the Jets to be playing from behind most games. Not only is it against the Shanahan offense philosophy, it is not sustainable. 

Ehhh idk. Darnold in the Dallas and Redskins game was pretty dang good too.

But yes, anyway, we'll find out about Zach a lot more before the bye week with these next 3 games. I'll be shocked if we're not playing catch up between one of those 3 teams. If we aren't, then LFGG.

[ZachEY]

1 hour ago, football guy said:

Fake news. I never said Sam was good. I said the coaching staff and front office felt he was talented and his career could be revitalized with a talented supporting cast and a new scheme. I agreed with that sentiment, but you won't find a single post where I say that it was my preference to stick with him over Zach Wilson. My personal choice was Zach- I thought he was by far the most talented QB in the draft class dating back to October 2020, and I posted the "receipts" on this very site. I understood the Jets needing to do their due diligence, and I would've understood if they traded #2 for a massive haul of 3 first round picks and 2 second round picks while taking Kyle Pitts (their top non-QB in that class) because whether or not Sam panned out, they would've been stacked with draft capital to go find someone in the future. It turned out to be moot point because Woody and Joe Douglas decided they wanted to go with Zach in March and the coaches became smitten with him as time went on. But when Saleh initially interviewed and was hired, it was a real consideration that the Jets could move forward with Sam for at least one year... Go find a single post where I say anything otherwise. You won't, but because you dug yourself in a whole with an asinine take, you feel it necessary to put words in my mouth for the sake of trying to save your own credibility. Its pathetic.

I mean, sure, if you want to be overly pedantic, you're probably right about your phrasing.  But, for the rest of us who aren't writing novellas in every post, thinking it was anything other than terrible if the Jets would have kept Sam Darnold, regardless of Zach Wilson, was bad and proven quickly and hilariously wrong.

My take, which you're welcome to call whatever you like, is that Zach Wilson isn't good.  The data backs that up - calls it a slam dunk, in fact.  My other take is that the game plan shifted once Wilson returned is also backed up by some data - even if some contextual factors play a role.  By the way, my take is in support of the coaches.  It's good that they changed the gameplan once Wilson returned - smart.

[maury77]

On 10/17/2022 at 1:57 PM, Jets Voice of Reason said:

Yeah, I'd lean towards not messing with what is working. Honestly, I think the current OL setup is our best run-blocking unit even if everyone (except for Becton) was healthy. As we've seen this year, an experienced swing tackle is invaluable and if Fant is not needed to be rushed into the lineup, I'm cool with that. Sucks for Fant personally, but that's the business.

OL play is so dependent upon chemistry that I'd hate to mess with the current lineup because of how well they are playing together.