1st round edge was the right move

[slats]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

So over/under 8 sacks in 2023?  

Surely a pass rushing specialist athletic freak will get a paltry 8 sacks, right?  Good for a mid-30's type ranking for top sack getters.

I’d be pretty happy with that. 
 
What do you think JSN will offer up this year? 70 catches, 840 yards, 6 TDs? Those would be comparable low-30s receiving totals. 

[jetblue95]

42 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Got it, no on 8 sacks. Thanks LiL.

since we are going on record with largely unknowable things months in advance, how many receptions, yards and TDs will JSN get this year?

[John Blaze]

7 minutes ago, Warfish said:

The only clear-cut improvement this year vs. last is Rodgers.  And yes, he should make a big difference.

Enough to take us from bottom 5 to top 5?  Probably not.

Like I keep saying, if everyone loves this bendy edge guy no one was talking about before JD picked him, great.  If you're happy, be happy.  

The thing is, we went into last year feeling like we had the weapons. Remember, Zach had no excuses. 

The reason that our offense was bad was the fact that we had no qb. Plus the crazy number of injuries.

Also, GW going into year 2 should show some improvement, right? Not to mention he's going to be catching passes from AR.

Like a few posters have already stated, our group of weapons may be better than what Rodgers had during his MVP years.

 

[jetblue95]

16 minutes ago, Warfish said:

The only clear-cut improvement this year vs. last is Rodgers.  And yes, he should make a big difference.

Enough to take us from bottom 5 to top 5?  Probably not.

Like I keep saying, if everyone loves this bendy edge guy no one was talking about before JD picked him, great.  If you're happy, be happy.  

 

do coaches not count?

do you think moore and berrios are better than lazard and hardman?

FTR - i never heard of mcdonald before thursday night and would have preferred a WR as well, but you are really being short-sighted if you think (i) rodgers over crapfest at QB is the only change made and (ii) that rodgers over crapfest at QB isn't a HUUUUUUGE difference. 

[Long Island Leprechaun]

5 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Pass rushing edges are primarily judged by their sacks.  You may not think so, but you're simply wrong.

We drafted a pass rush specialist, he's apparently an athletic freak, best pass rusher in the draft, pick your hyperbole currently going round JN,  and everyone is happy.  That's cool. 

Nothing wrong with asking/projecting what his real, actual production impact will be (or not be).

You clearly don't seem to believe he's an 8 or 8+ sack guy in 2023, and that's ok.  

Not sure why you get so angry about such basic stuff some days LiL.

I'm not mad at all; I'm playing with you, just as you're playing with me. There's a good argument to be made that sacks are a factor in the assessment of an edge rusher but that pressures and hurries are at least if not more important. The function of a pass rusher is to disrupt the QB, not just take him down. Pressures and hurries increase turnovers, which are far more important to a defense than sacks for obvious reasons. Sacks are vastly overrated from the standpoint of how they correlate with overall defensive performance and wins.

[Warfish]

2 minutes ago, slats said:

I’d be pretty happy with that. 
 
What do you think JSN will offer up this year? 70 catches, 840 yards, 6 TDs? Those would be comparable low-30s receiving totals. 

Playing behind two stud 1,000 yard WR's in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett?  Lol, probably not in Seattle, no.

He'll likely slip in behind them into the Marquise Goodwin role, and should exceed Goodwin's production from last year.

35/550/5 would be a reasonable minimum expectation there I think.  

Here, with us?  With 2nd year Wilson and Lazard the primary X/Y pair?  I'd have expected a bit more, albeit likely not 70/840/6, probably closer to 45/650/6 perhaps.  

Of course, if Davis was retained (which it seems he will be), knowing Davis is a JD guy, who knows.  Seems to me keeping Davis is in part why we didn't pick JSN.  Davis is JD's guy, despite how disappointing he's been here so far.  Guess JD thinks Rodgers will fix him.

[JetHammer]

4 hours ago, Tranquilo said:

It's nuts.

We didn't draft a safety or a DT. We drafted like the most important position on defense lol

Do you remember the time when people used to moan we haven't drafted edge since Jon Abraham!....

[Warfish]

6 minutes ago, jetblue95 said:

do coaches not count?

You talking about Hackett?  He's an upgrade because of Rodgers.  Not on his own (IMO).

6 minutes ago, jetblue95 said:

do you think moore and berrios are better than lazard and hardman?

I think Moore > Lazard purely as a WR, yes, except for blocking where Lazard is a big upgrade.

 Hardman or Berrios, they're both depth guys/returners not great playing WR and should only rarely see the field.

6 minutes ago, jetblue95 said:

FTR - i never heard of mcdonald before thursday night and would have preferred a WR as well, but you are really being short-sighted if you think (i) rodgers over crapfest at QB is the only change made and (ii) that rodgers over crapfest at QB isn't a HUUUUUUGE difference. 

To be clear, I do think Rodgers is a huge upgrade over Wilson.

But we're not looking for upgrades only, we're on a 1-2 year win it all track now.

Rodgers isn't enough to win it all on his own.

[jgb]

10 minutes ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

I'm not mad at all; I'm playing with you, just as you're playing with me. There's a good argument to be made that sacks are a factor in the assessment of an edge rusher but that pressures and hurries are at least if not more important. The function of a pass rusher is to disrupt the QB, not just take him down. Pressures and hurries increase turnovers, which are far more important to a defense than sacks for obvious reasons. Sacks are vastly overrated from the standpoint of how they correlate with overall defensive performance and wins.

McDonald was drafted for sacks. Not pressures, sacks. It will be a disappointment if he doesn’t become an annual 8+ sack guy. Not saying he has to hit 8 his rookie year to avoid being a bust but he needs to get there by years 2 or 3 at latest to be considered a good pick at 15. 

[Bowles Movement]

30 minutes ago, Warfish said:

The only clear-cut improvement this year vs. last is Rodgers.  And yes, he should make a big difference.

Enough to take us from bottom 5 to top 5?  Probably not.

Like I keep saying, if everyone loves this bendy edge guy no one was talking about before JD picked him, great.  If you're happy, be happy.  

I’ve said it here and I’ve seen it said on multiple sites including Bart Scott and Jake Asman. When you have a good team, there are less holes to fill and less starters to replace.  We now have a roster of a contender, so naturally, there aren’t many holes to fill. That’s a good thing. We also didn’t have four picks in the top 36 like we did last year. That’s going to impact the kind of players we get, and the kind of impact they have.  We have signed some good players and we have drafted some good players.   How they come together as a team remains to be seen, but yes, I’m optimistic and happy.

There are half a dozen good teams in the AFC. They could all go to the Super Bowl. I think we’re one of them, but it depends on our health just like most other teams.

[Warfish]

8 minutes ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

I'm not mad at all; I'm playing with you, just as you're playing with me.

Good, it's all fun and games and entertainment after all.  That next town comment seemed a bit angry.

8 minutes ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

There's a good argument to be made that sacks are a factor in the assessment of an edge rusher but that pressures and hurries are at least if not more important.

I've said this for ages, so it's not new, nor related to McDonald at all, but "pressures" is THE most meaningless stat in NFL football IMO.

Pressure does not mean success.  A player can earn a "pressure" andthe QB still pass it for a 80 yard TD.  A player can earn a "pressure" and the QB scramble for a 75 yard TD.  Those "pressures" are what we used to call "NOT GETTING A SACK!!", lol, lol, lol.  Pressure is like a participation stat, oh, nice, you got close, here's a stat for you, lol.

Play success if what matters.  Sacks a re definitive successes.  Pressures are not.  

8 minutes ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

The function of a pass rusher is to disrupt the QB, not just take him down. Pressures and hurries increase turnovers, which are far more important to a defense than sacks for obvious reasons. Sacks are vastly overrated from the standpoint of how they correlate with overall defensive performance and wins.

/shrug, ok.

[SickJetFan]

Time will tell if right move.

 

I wanted JSN and if JSN wasn't there I wanted Van Ness but im ok with McDonald because I just thought it would be waste to draft OT depth with 1st round pick.

[Warfish]

P.S. here is how I know I must be wrong, even my boys @jgb and @Jetsfan80 are getting all hyperbolic and happy about Rodgers-as-savior, this O being fine (great!) as-is, and this Edge being a good pick.

If I don't have them, I am truly on Fish Island with my preference here, lol.

So for the 50th time, we'll see.  

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, slimjasi said:

People have been hearing his name for weeks and weeks as the best available WR and I think go from there. I like him and wanted to draft him when the tackles were gone, but I do think it's pretty telling he fell all the way to #20 overall. They could up end up being wrong, but it's clear this WR class wasn't particularly highly regarded by NFL GMs. Meanwhile, 7 different edge rushers went in the first round . . . 

An elite slot receiver is still just a slot receiver, I suppose!

[Bowles Movement]

4 minutes ago, Warfish said:

You talking about Hackett?  He's an upgrade because of Rodgers.  Not on his own (IMO).

I think Moore > Lazard purely as a WR, yes, except for blocking where Lazard is a big upgrade.

 Hardman or Berrios, they're both depth guys/returners not great playing WR and should only rarely see the field.

To be clear, I do think Rodgers is a huge upgrade over Wilson.

But we're not looking for upgrades only, we're on a 1-2 year win it all track now.

Rodgers isn't enough to win it all on his own.

 

I think we have a 2 to 3 year window to win and that means securing depth so we can replace players coming off contracts, hopefully with better performing and cheaper players. Who want to be able to contend for the next several years, not just this one.

 

Moore hasn’t proven to be better than Lazard in any regard to this point.

 

I disagree with you that Hardmann is not better than Beerio’s. If the Jets thought that was the case, they could’ve just kept Berrios and saved money.

[jgb]

1 minute ago, Warfish said:

P.S. here is how I know I must be wrong, even my boys @jgb and @Jetsfan80 are getting all hyperbolic and happy about Rodgers-as-savior, this O being fine (great!) as-is, and this Edge being a good pick.

If I don't have them, I am truly on Fish Island with my preference here, lol.

So for the 50th time, we'll see.  

Except I didn’t say any of that regarding the savior stuff. I did say I liked this pick though, so that’s true.

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, Warfish said:

P.S. here is how I know I must be wrong, even my boys @jgb and @Jetsfan80 are getting all hyperbolic and happy about Rodgers-as-savior, this O being fine (great!) as-is, and this Edge being a good pick.

If I don't have them, I am truly on Fish Island with my preference here, lol.

So for the 50th time, we'll see.  

I just would rather have a good to really good EDGE than an elite slot receiver, is all.  I would argue the former does more for Rodgers than the latter.  A scary defense that can play well with a lead and get the ball back quickly to the O is always a nice thing to have.  That's not to say I didn't want offense in this draft, it just wasn't a great offense draft for when our pick slot came up in Rd 1....

My preference would have been to trade down before taking McDonald but who knows if he'd have been there or just how little Douglas would have gotten back in such a trade.  

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

An elite slot receiver is still just a slot receiver, I suppose!

I mean I’d love studs at every positions but if this McDonald guy can create on his own, it’s going to give our defense enviable flexibility to react to whatever offenses try to do.

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

McDonald was drafted for sacks. Not pressures, sacks. It will be a disappointment if he doesn’t become an annual 8+ sack guy. Not saying he has to hit 8 his rookie year but he needs to get there by years 2 or 3 at latest to be considered a good pick at 15. 

Btw, for those who don't believe in defense anymore, the last three Super Bowl champions were all top 5 in sacks. 

[slats]

4 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Playing behind two stud 1,000 yard WR's in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett?  Lol, probably not in Seattle, no.

He'll likely slip in behind them into the Marquise Goodwin role, and should exceed Goodwin's production from last year.

35/550/5 would be a reasonable minimum expectation there I think.  

Here, with us?  With 2nd year Wilson and Lazard the primary X/Y pair?  I'd have expected a bit more, albeit likely not 70/840/6, probably closer to 45/650/6 perhaps.  

Of course, if Davis was retained (which it seems he will be), knowing Davis is a JD guy, who knows.  Seems to me keeping Davis is in part why we didn't pick JSN.  Davis is JD's guy, despite how disappointing he's been here so far.  Guess JD thinks Rodgers will fix him.

So more like the 60th rated receiver while the edge should be near 30th? In a rotation with Lawson, Huff, JFM, Johnson, and Clemons? Okay. 
 
I think Davis is here because he’s under contract. It’s still a pretty big contract, and the Jets have Mims, Irv Charles, and a couple new UDFAs also competing for a roster spot. He’s no lock. 

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

Btw, for those who don't believe in defense anymore, the last three Super Bowl champions were all top 5 in sacks. 

Yes but a 3rd variable is involved there:  They have a QB who gets them leads, leading to a defense facing a more one dimensional offense, and thus racking up more sacks.  

Good thing we have a really good QB now. 

[SickJetFan]

1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

Btw, for those who don't believe in defense anymore, the last three Super Bowl champions were all top 5 in sacks. 

I got a couple pretty big sacks myself

[jgb]

We are also forgetting that Rodgers probably had a say in this and expressed the type of receivers he’s most comfortable working with. He’s famous for bristling at breaking in rookie wide outs.

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yes but a 3rd variable is involved there:  They have a QB who gets them leads, leading to a defense facing a more one dimensional offense, and thus racking up more sacks.  

Good thing we have a really good QB now. 

Bingo. 

Meanwhile, find me the super bowl champions who had more than one elite WR. 

Finding a great edge rusher > finding a great WR2

[slats]

15 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Hardman or Berrios, they're both depth guys/returners not great playing WR and should only rarely see the field.

In Hardman’s first three years in the league, he put up similar receiving numbers to what you’ve said you might expect from JSN this year. 

[BornJetsFan1983]

5 hours ago, Warfish said:

I say it over and over, the NFL is an offense-dominated league.  You do not win if you do not score.

Our Offense has been ranked 28th, 29th, 28th, 11th (Fitzy), 30th, 24th, 23rd, 31st, 32nd, 28th and 29th since 2012.

No wonder we're the leader by far in years without a playoff appearance.  

Closest we came, yup, 2015 with Fitz and the 11th ranked scoring Offense.

And yet, we as a team invest far heavier in Defense with our top picks than we do with offense.  Despite the regime, we seem to consistently try and build the 1985 Bears or the elite D era Ravens, rather than try to compete with the top Offenses.

Since 2007 we have picked Defense with our top #1 pick 13 times out of 17 years.  

Of the remaining 4 top #1 picks, three were QB's!  Sanchez, Darnold and Wilson.

Only once in the past 17 years has our top #1 pick been a non-QB Offensive player, and that was Becton. 

And what do we have to show for this incredible investment of draft capital to the Defense and the constant hiring of Defense minded Head Coaches?

The longest streak of uncompetitive football in the NFL.

So in desperation, due to our ongoing failure to find or identify a QB, we got Aaron Rodgers.  That is awesome if he still has it (and I think he does).  But he isn't Jesus Christ, he doesn't walk on water, and he won't turn water into wine.  He's 40 ffs. Our supporting cast is thin, subpar at many spots and unreliable health-wise (O-line) and our skill position players have only two elite talents, one of whom is coming back off a horrible injury and is 100% TBD if he'll be the same guy.

All this said, I just think the route to change is CHANGE, to try and win by building elite talent on offense.  Not doing the same old defense, defense, defense thing we've always done, especially with a pick like this one that is almost all athleticism/RAS score based, who at most will only be a rotational guy while we have Rodgers.  especially the year after we invested a #1 in a supposedly elite edge rusher (a narrative that's now changed when this pick got made, lol).

We paid alot to get Rodgers, I would have gotten him another weapon.  But clearly, mot of the forum does not agree and loves bendy gumby, lol.

No argument on not identifying a qb, but sh*t happens, and Joe has rightfully adapted with the best plan forward. Aaron with a def to win it all. Lets go jets.

[Jetsfan80]

5 minutes ago, jgb said:

We are also forgetting that Rodgers probably had a say in this and expressed the type of receivers he’s most comfortable working with. He’s famous for bristling at breaking I’m rookie wide outs.

 

 

[Jetsfan80]

33 minutes ago, jetblue95 said:

 

do coaches not count?

do you think moore and berrios are better than lazard and hardman?

FTR - i never heard of mcdonald before thursday night and would have preferred a WR as well, but you are really being short-sighted if you think (i) rodgers over crapfest at QB is the only change made and (ii) that rodgers over crapfest at QB isn't a HUUUUUUGE difference. 

 

Just gonna put this right here:

 

[jgb]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 

But the salary cap?

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, jgb said:

But the salary cap?

@Barry McCockinner

[jgb]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

@Barry McCockinner

[#27TheDominator]

Did anybody think that Rodgers might like Davis?  People keep acting like Douglas keeping him around is some vanity thing, well the new passing game coordinator and Oline coach were with him in Tennessee.  Downing was TE coach there, so he should be pretty familiar.  Most of the rest of the staff has been around him for a couple of years.  Maybe they actually like him as a player.  His contract is big, but not crazy when you consider what is being given out lately.  

[kdels62]

13 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Did anybody think that Rodgers might like Davis?  People keep acting like Douglas keeping him around is some vanity thing, well the new OC and Oline coach were with him in Tennessee.  Downing was TE coach there, so he should be pretty familiar.  Most of the rest of the staff has been around him for a couple of years.  Maybe they actually like him as a player.  His contract is big, but not crazy when you consider what is being given out lately.  

Rodgers has named Davis as one of the talents on the Jets team in the past. 

[JETS SB]

5 hours ago, Zachtomims47 said:

Once you have a QB - it's coaching, luck, and defense. Oh and health. 

I don't think a first round WR was gonna suddenly launch this team into elite status. 

Especially not the guy everyone wanted,  a slow average slot receiver. 

[jetblue95]

28 minutes ago, Warfish said:

You talking about Hackett?  He's an upgrade because of Rodgers.  Not on his own (IMO).

hackett has a decent track record as an OC.  horrible as a HC.  i know he didn't call the plays in GB, but rodgers loves him and the last 2 years he was an OC, rodgers won the MVP.  when he was the OC in jax, they went to the AFC title game with blake bortles at QB.  i don't know how anyone can say MLF is a better OC than he is, at least at this juncture.  add in a new o-line coach/run game coordinator (tenn had some pretty good rushing offenses), a new passing game coordinator (kind of meh on this hire), and a new WR coach (solid track record and certainly an upgrade over miles austin).  so yeah, the staff as a whole is better, more experienced, and uniquely situated to click with rodgers. 

 

28 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I think Moore > Lazard purely as a WR, yes, except for blocking where Lazard is a big upgrade.

 Hardman or Berrios, they're both depth guys/returners not great playing WR and should only rarely see the field.

after his 1st season, i may have been inclined to say moore had greater potential.  after last year's crap-fest on-and-off the field, don't think i can agree.  plus lazard has instant chemistry with the QB.  i think it's an upgrade.  as is hardman over berries, even if both are depth/gadget guys.  granted hardman got to play with mahomes and berrios...well didn't.  but after 4 years, hardman has about double the yardage and triple the TDs than berrios with a much better YPR average.  he's better, even if it is at the #4 WR spot.

 

28 minutes ago, Warfish said:

To be clear, I do think Rodgers is a huge upgrade over Wilson.

But we're not looking for upgrades only, we're on a 1-2 year win it all track now.

Rodgers isn't enough to win it all on his own.

i don't know if rodgers is enough to win in on his won.  then again, i don't think JSN was the magic piece that would put them over the top.  

the jets will go as far as rodgers and the defense take them.  they aren't going to win on just the offense.  they will be more balanced, with a solid defense and a balanced offense led by a hall of fame QB.  they obviously will need more out of the offense than they had last year.  given they have GW, decided to keep davis, and added lazard and hardman, i'm not sure that a rookie WR was seeing huge numbers.

based on how relatively late the WR run happened, it doesn't seem like this year's class was looked at as strongly as the last 3 years.  in 2022, 6 WRs went in the top 18.  in 2021, 4 WRs went in the top 20.  in 2020, 3 WRs went in the top 17.  this year, the 1st WR off the board happened at pick 20.