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JN Mafia Game 2: Dawn of The Dead Edition


ZachEY
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This has got to more to do then your votes on me big fella.

I wasn't referring to my votes on you, I was referring to the vote you put on yourself. Funny how I wasn't involved when an innocent was railroaded. So, so far the Crusher looks guilty because he voted for the Zombie. Yet, nothing is said that I never even mentioned anything about poor railroaded cat loving Norway. You might want to go ahead and take a look at the people hot on killing that innocent when they full knew Woody was guilty.

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I wasn't referring to my votes on you, I was referring to the vote you put on yourself. Funny how I wasn't involved when an innocent was railroaded. So, so far the Crusher looks guilty because he voted for the Zombie. Yet, nothing is said that I never even mentioned anything about poor railroaded cat loving Norway. You might want to go ahead and take a look at the people hot on killing that innocent when they full knew Woody was guilty.

I see your point. At the same time the town came together under the idea that the argument between woody and I needed to be avoided and have it sort itself out. I've taken notice of those who did vote and some who played powerful roles in moving that train.

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I see your point. At the same time the town came together under the idea that the argument between woody and I needed to be avoided and have it sort itself out. I've taken notice of those who did vote and some who played powerful roles in moving that train.

Might want to check some of the lesser active players. Good job so far. I'm interested in hearing what you find out.

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I think Woodys' reveal sent everyone into a spin, so I am discounting activity after that point for now. I believe what I am going to try and break down is more compelling and will help Vic decide who to investigate tonight that might be zombies.

Above, is the voting activity and I included JT's FOS as well from page 9 right after I broke my case on Woody.

Since I cant quote that many posts, I will try best to follow the activity that happened right up until Woody's reveal.

On page 10, JVOR swapped his vote from Vic to Norway, my post went unnoticed until IJ agreed with me and voted Woody.

Below is the final vote count for page 10

Norway (4) - Vicious98x, CTM, Thor99, JVOR

WoodyPaige (2) - JiF, Irish Jet

Vicious89x (1) - Crusher

Thor99 (1) - Norway

With 14 players remaining, it takes 8 to behead.

On page 11, Vic reveals and Shutout joins the WP charge.

On page 12, Vic joins the charge against WP.

On page 13, Crusher unvotes Vic and BG joins the WP charge.

Leaving the final tally before Woodys' reveal at...

Norway (3) - CTM, Thor99, JVOR

WoodyPaige (4) - JiF, Irish Jet, shutout, Vicious98x, BG

Vicious89x (1) -

Thor99 (1) - Norway

With 14 players remaining, it takes 8 to behead

A lot of different thoughts circeld after the bogus reveal. Mostly everyone came out and said that they thought Woody was full of ****. They might have voted another way, but claimed he was full of ****.

I think its important to look back at players that might not have ever even addressed Woodys' reveal one way or the other. Or possibly someone defending him, though I dont recall that happening.

Hopefully thats helps. Personally I think this should help you with your investigation Vic. At least it will narrow down your search a little bit. We need to flip a zombie!!!

This was an awesome post, and I like the logic to it.

So before Woody's reveal the votes were

Norway (3) - CTM, Thor99, JVOR

WoodyPaige (4) - JiF, Irish Jet, shutout, Vicious98x, BG

Vicious89x (1) -

Thor99 (1) - Norway

With 14 players remaining, it takes 8 to behead

That would mean FOS on JVOR and CTM (and let's be honest myself/Thor). I won't overplay this card, but I'm guessing Thor voted early on Norway and never came back. That's my heritage so i'll live with it.

I have to go back and read exactly what was before and after Woody's reveal. For now:

FOS: JVOR and CTM

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This was an awesome post, and I like the logic to it.

So before Woody's reveal the votes were

That would mean FOS on JVOR and CTM (and let's be honest myself/Thor). I won't overplay this card, but I'm guessing Thor voted early on Norway and never came back. That's my heritage so i'll live with it.

I have to go back and read exactly what was before and after Woody's reveal. For now:

FOS: JVOR and CTM

Raoul. CTM had a solid post himself suspecting JVOR and Norway. I do think the reasoning was logical behind but I can see where you are going with this. I'll have to take it into consideration.

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Raoul. CTM had a solid post himself suspecting JVOR and Norway. I do think the reasoning was logical behind but I can see where you are going with this. I'll have to take it into consideration.

Take my posts with a grain of salt

1 - I suck at this game

2 - I have a ton of reading to do.

In any case, your job is to not get influenced by experienced guys (ie Doggin and CTM). They could sell ice cubes to eskimos.

Make your own decisions.

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Jif huh? So it seems the scum didn't take another shot at Vic, whomever the doctor is shouldn't be fooled though, they are probably more likely to target vic again tonight. I can't say it strong enough that the doc needs to keep protecting him, if Vic dies at night without revealing his confirmed innocents, we are giving up a huge advantage. As I will explain below..

we have 11 players left.. Most likely 8 innocent, 3 scum.

Since we know who Vic is that leaves 7 innocent vs. 3 scum, meaning we have a 30% chance of landing scum on a purely random vote...

The interesting thing to remember is that Vic will always have better odds of finding scum then the rest of the town, and his advantage will improve over time. Right now Vic has a confirmed innocent in his pocket, meaning he is working from a pool of 6 innocent and 3 scum, making his random odds 33% of finding scum today, a 10% advantage over the town.

If the most likely but worst case scenario happens today and tonight (we lose two innocents and he gets a negative result) the town will be drawing from 5 innocent out of 8, while Vic will have 2 confirmed innocents, meaning he would have a 50% shot (3 innocent out of 6) of finding scum tomorrow, while the town only has a 37.5% chance (in the worst case scenario)

This process kind of becomes mechanical a this point, like doggin said, lynch the most guilty, investigate the innocent and meet in the middle but the important thing to remember is that the doc should not play games here, as if we lose vic without him telling us the confirmed innocents, we risk losing what looks like a good shot at victory at this point..

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Does it? Why would the real doc, who's clearly well hidden right now protect themselves? And what are the odds that the zombies would correctly guess said well hidden doctor?

No one being NK'ed gives us three possibilities:

1) the zombies were not paying attention to the thread or did not believe we've actually got a doctor and were foolish enough to go after vicious

2) Doggin's suggestion that they've guessed our real doctor and he just happened to protect himself

3) zombies intentionally didn't kill anyone

Honestly right now I think the 3rd option is a legitimate possibility. No way they'd actually try to get vicious knowing woody was scum, and if they've figured out who our doctor is we're screwed.

Btw doggin I apologize if I'm being too confident. It really wasn't intended past the first post, and even that was supposed to come off tongue in cheek. I've just been typing my thought process, got a bit paranoid about where it led me and wanted to massage my own ego by making sure my very important opinion was known :rolleyes:

I'll stop, and I assure you I would even if I wasn't finally going to bed and won't be on a computer again until late in the afternoon

I think option number 3 makes the most sense. This was the first post where Doggin didn't make much sense. What are the odds that the mafia go after the real doc, realize their attempt on the real doc failed, and then go after someone else? They'd have to assume the real doc would self protect the rest of the game and go after vicious, right? And at the same time, going after vicious makes little sense because he's the logical target. I think an experienced member tried to throw off the scent here.

To be honest, JiF was the logical target from the beginning and i'm surprised he's lasted this long actually being a roleless innocent. Starting off with the odd "character" a mafia member would nk just to see if he's had a role. Plus, the vibe I got on him was innocent because of his useful posts.

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Take my posts with a grain of salt

1 - I suck at this game

2 - I have a ton of reading to do.

In any case, your job is to not get influenced by experienced guys (ie Doggin and CTM). They could sell ice cubes to eskimos.

Make your own decisions.

I agree with this. As outlined in my post above, at this point Vicious has more information then anyone else, today his advantage is small but at some point we need to follow him around a bit

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Guys as of right now I still think we need some more out of Crusher. He's quickly swiped aside my accusations and is trying to get me to focus elsewhere. Any thoughts?

Vic, feel free to ask me specific questions and I will happily answer them. You said I was quiet for wanting to play, but Im not a tale spinner like CTM and Im certainly not the mastermind Doggin is. I try to be observant and flow the game and stick to my feelings. I don't sway back and forth, Ive been very consistent. But I will happily field any questions. I will be back around 2 and should be on till about 3.

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Vic, feel free to ask me specific questions and I will happily answer them. You said I was quiet for wanting to play, but Im not a tale spinner like CTM and Im certainly not the mastermind Doggin is. I try to be observant and flow the game and stick to my feelings. I don't sway back and forth, Ive been very consistent. But I will happily field any questions. I will be back around 2 and should be on till about 3.

Sounds good man. See participation helps! At this point we have to have the mentality of trust no on but I think we need to play the percentages kinda like CTM listed out. We should question and push everyone. I might be the investigator but I'm still human who might question the wrong people. I think the idea is to stick together and move forward.

First off Crush I think you should give us 3 of the guys you suspect the most. Let us know your thoughts on what's gone on.

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Our current roster, objectively:

1. Doggin94it

2. RaoulDuke

3. Irish Jet

4. War Ensemble

5. shutout

6. Crusher

7. Jets Things

8. Vicious98x (innocent)

9. CTM

10. Bleedin' Green

11. JVOR

(Vicious's status as innocent is confirmed, IMO - if he was mafia, the real finder should be screaming about it by now).

Vicious also knows at least one other player is innocent from his viewings last night, which means that for vicious, there are 9 unknown - 3 of which are likely mafia. Crusher is obviously one of those unknowns. That means he's got a 1 in 3 chance of being mafia, even outside of any suspicious activity.

Now, here's my list

1. Doggin94it (innocent)

2. RaoulDuke - took over for Thor, suspicious inactivity, now very active

3. Irish Jet - suspicious inactivity after being enthusiastic about signing up. Blamed on ski trip/school.

4. War Ensemble - same level of activity as prior game. No read yet.

5. shutout (presumed innocent)

6. Crusher - odd activity, weird linkage to JiF.

7. Jets Things - no read

8. Vicious98x (innocent)

9. CTM - pushed for Woody not to be investigated at all. Devious enough to risk no-kill on Vicious as confirming Woody (would work if Vic doesn't investigate Woody, which I made a possibility). Yes, I'm aware all of this applies to me as well, for the rest of you who can't know that I am, in fact, a townie.

10. Bleedin' Green - playing his typical, reasonable townie game, which he plays as both townie and mafia. No read.

11. JVOR - No read

Given all of that, I'm happy enough to vote for Crusher, as he's one of the unknowns and someone I'm mildly suspicious of. Would like to see some reaction.

As long as our doc stays alive, we should win this game

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I think option number 3 makes the most sense. This was the first post where Doggin didn't make much sense. What are the odds that the mafia go after the real doc, realize their attempt on the real doc failed, and then go after someone else? They'd have to assume the real doc would self protect the rest of the game and go after vicious, right? And at the same time, going after vicious makes little sense because he's the logical target. I think an experienced member tried to throw off the scent here.

To be honest, JiF was the logical target from the beginning and i'm surprised he's lasted this long actually being a roleless innocent. Starting off with the odd "character" a mafia member would nk just to see if he's had a role. Plus, the vibe I got on him was innocent because of his useful posts.

Here's how it could have played out that night:

Doctor: Ha, Woody's a liar. The Mafia knows that, therefore they know that I know Woody is a liar, and will expect me to protect Vicious. Therefore, they won't target Vicious - so I'll protect myself tonight in case they target me.

Mafia: The real doc knows Woody is lying, so he'll protect Vicious. Lets target someone else to get our kill in.

Mafia chooses random innocent, random innocent happens to be the doc. Kill is blocked, Mafia now knows who the doc is.

The other scenario is a Mafia chosen no-kill (which I think is less likely than the next thing I'll suggest) or the Mafia choosing to target Vicious anyway and getting blocked. The reason to do that would be:

1) Maybe the doc will WIFOM himself out of protecting Vicious and we'll get lucky and Vicious dies;

2) If Vicious survives, and didn't investigate Woody, we can say that the lack of a death means that Woody must be innocent (since we wouldn't have been stupid enough to target vicious knowing the real doc would protect him).

That's much more likely than a "no kill", because the downside is "no kill", and the upside is "dead finder"

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Our current roster, objectively:

1. Doggin94it

2. RaoulDuke

3. Irish Jet

4. War Ensemble

5. shutout

6. Crusher

7. Jets Things

8. Vicious98x (innocent)

9. CTM

10. Bleedin' Green

11. JVOR

(Vicious's status as innocent is confirmed, IMO - if he was mafia, the real finder should be screaming about it by now).

Vicious also knows at least one other player is innocent from his viewings last night, which means that for vicious, there are 9 unknown - 3 of which are likely mafia. Crusher is obviously one of those unknowns. That means he's got a 1 in 3 chance of being mafia, even outside of any suspicious activity.

Now, here's my list

1. Doggin94it (innocent)

2. RaoulDuke - took over for Thor, suspicious inactivity, now very active

3. Irish Jet - suspicious inactivity after being enthusiastic about signing up. Blamed on ski trip/school.

4. War Ensemble - same level of activity as prior game. No read yet.

5. shutout (presumed innocent)

6. Crusher - odd activity, weird linkage to JiF.

7. Jets Things - no read

8. Vicious98x (innocent)

9. CTM - pushed for Woody not to be investigated at all. Devious enough to risk no-kill on Vicious as confirming Woody (would work if Vic doesn't investigate Woody, which I made a possibility). Yes, I'm aware all of this applies to me as well, for the rest of you who can't know that I am, in fact, a townie.

10. Bleedin' Green - playing his typical, reasonable townie game, which he plays as both townie and mafia. No read.

11. JVOR - No read

Given all of that, I'm happy enough to vote for Crusher, as he's one of the unknowns and someone I'm mildly suspicious of. Would like to see some reaction.

As long as our doc stays alive, we should win this game

Just popping in for 1/2 hour or so for lunch then I got a meeting and won't be on again until tonight (post-8pm). Doggin, why presuming shutout's innocence? What has he said to make you think that?

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Just popping in for 1/2 hour or so for lunch then I got a meeting and won't be on again until tonight (post-8pm). Doggin, why presuming shutout's innocence? What has he said to make you think that?

JT if it means anything I trust shutout.

He was pretty much the only person who wanted Woody dead with the lynch, I just don't think a zombie would give up their own like that, we were both trying to rally the town and failed.

Doggin- I'm liking your analysis. Out of all of them I really do question Crusher the most. As you know when you make opinions and votes you're sticking your neck out, he was playful with JiF early on but I really think when JiF "turned on him" when I brought up the fact that Crusher was suspicious really annoyed him. I do think JiF wasn't excluding Crusher from his statements and next thing you know, boom, he's dead and then a sorrowful post saying good bye to JiF. Maybe I'm reading into it too much but I feel he's tried to distance himself from various scenarios.

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Just popping in for 1/2 hour or so for lunch then I got a meeting and won't be on again until tonight (post-8pm). Doggin, why presuming shutout's innocence? What has he said to make you think that?

As I said before - his keeping a vote on Woody after the reveal, like JiF, was a newbie, cowboy play with a lot more downside to the town than upside.

But once you know Woody is mafia, its a play that seems very dumb for a fellow teammate. Having him as a potential doc gave the mafia leverage, and if Vicious didn't investigate him, that leverage would be ongoing. The only reason to do it as mafia would be to innoculate yourself, which is why I say he's presumed but not definitely innocent, and someone Vicious should look into at some point down the road (though not tonight, IMO).

But like JiF, as soon as Woody popped mafia, Shutout became one of the players I am least suspicious of.

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1. Doggin94it (innocent)

2. RaoulDuke - took over for Thor, suspicious inactivity, now very active

3. Irish Jet - suspicious inactivity after being enthusiastic about signing up. Blamed on ski trip/school.

4. War Ensemble - same level of activity as prior game. No read yet.

5. shutout (presumed innocent)

6. Crusher - odd activity, weird linkage to JiF.

7. Jets Things - no read

8. Vicious98x (innocent)

9. CTM - pushed for Woody not to be investigated at all. Devious enough to risk no-kill on Vicious as confirming Woody (would work if Vic doesn't investigate Woody, which I made a possibility). Yes, I'm aware all of this applies to me as well, for the rest of you who can't know that I am, in fact, a townie.

10. Bleedin' Green - playing his typical, reasonable townie game, which he plays as both townie and mafia. No read.

11. JVOR - No read

I don't like it when you don't make sense. It makes me suspicious of you. How would sacrificing a NK confirm woody when it's a sure thing there is a doctor in the game that also would've protected Vic?

Are you telling me that if Vic didn't investigate Woody and the NK was blocked, you would've considered Woody confirmed? Makes no sense. I would've thought that either woody or a real doctor had protected vic and move on from there. It would've been a null pointer..

And I still say it was the right play. If for instance, JIF was the doctor, Woody's have been lynched today and Vic would have another innocent or another positive investigation in his pocket..

why are you and JVOR so interested in pushing this notion that the scum might've forfeited a NK? Interested in undermining our confirmed cop?

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Sorry for only chiming in for the first time today guys, morning was a little rough at work. While getting Woody was great, I feel like the fact that he was so suspicious to everyone, it didn't give us much to work with from there. I didn't see anyone trying to step up and try to defend him, probably because his own teammates knew he was going down sooner or later. The closest thing to a defense was those saying not to lynch him the day he claimed and I was admittedly one of those people and still stand by that logic.

As far as everyone else goes, I know a lot of people are always suspicious of the quiet ones and while my instinct goes towards the same way, I feel like it kills innocents a hell of a lot more often than not. I also found it seems a convenient way for the mafia to help along the lynch of innocents while having an excuse for why. I'm fine with the idea of pressuring those not participating and getting the read from that (such as what happened with Woody, which worked out), but I'm not particularly fond of the idea of just straight up lynching based on that alone.

Crusher is an interesting character and I'm trying to get a read on him. Don't be fooled, he's a lot more clever then he'll admit, he certainly took me for a ride in my first mafia game. That said, I'm not getting an overly guilty vibe from him. He was distant for a little while but is obviously now making an effort to get more involved. Shutout is a guy I know some are already putting in the innocent column, but I'm actually slightly suspicious. His insistence on Woody seemed almost over the top. Lets be honest, we all knew that if Woody was mafia, he was going down eventually and if you're mafia and know that, then why not lead the charge yourself in an effort to clear your name? I'm not ready to vote for the guy, but I'm also not about to declare him innocent yet either.

Those are some general thoughts for now. Honestly, I have to go back and read more before coming up with a vote. I'd also like to hear from some of the quieter people as well on their thoughts. We don't have a whole lot to work with considering yesterday went by in a flash and the day before was just endless hours of debating Woody and Vicious. If we need to start applying some pressure I'm fine with that, but like I said, I wouldn't be in a rush to lynch a quiet player before we even hear from them. Especially considering we still have a hidden doctor out there somewhere.

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As I said before - his keeping a vote on Woody after the reveal, like JiF, was a newbie, cowboy play with a lot more downside to the town than upside.

But once you know Woody is mafia, its a play that seems very dumb for a fellow teammate. Having him as a potential doc gave the mafia leverage, and if Vicious didn't investigate him, that leverage would be ongoing. The only reason to do it as mafia would be to innoculate yourself, which is why I say he's presumed but not definitely innocent, and someone Vicious should look into at some point down the road (though not tonight, IMO).

But like JiF, as soon as Woody popped mafia, Shutout became one of the players I am least suspicious of.

Thanks for the breakdown. And going back to something JiF mentioned before he had his brains sucked out, I think it's still a good idea to discuss those who didn't address Woody's reveal one way or another.

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I don't like it when you don't make sense. It makes me suspicious of you. How would sacrificing a NK confirm woody when it's a sure thing there is a doctor in the game that also would've protected Vic?

Are you telling me that if Vic didn't investigate Woody and the NK was blocked, you would've considered Woody confirmed? Makes no sense. I would've thought that either woody or a real doctor had protected vic and move on from there. It would've been a null pointer..

Think about it for a second. If I'm mafia, and I'm running that team, I say "shoot at vicious and play a No Kill as confirming Woody." Here's the argument I'd make:

1) "If woody is mafia, then his teammates have to know: a) that Woody is mafia; B) that there is a real doc out there; c) that the real doc knows woody is mafia; and d) that the real doc would protect Vicious";

2) "If the mafia knew the real doc would protect vicious, they'd never waste a NK targetting him";

3) "Therefore, Woody must not be mafia, and the mafia must have targeted one of Vicious or Woody and Woody won the coin flip";

4) "Of course, the other option is that the mafia targetted a random player who self protected, or that the Mafia anticipated this argument and decided to target vicious even knowing Woody is mafia and the kill would likely fail, but those are less likely scenarios and for now, we can presume Woody is a confirmed doc (pending a counterclaim or vicious investigation)"

And I still say it was the right play. If for instance, JIF was the doctor, Woody's have been lynched today and Vic would have another innocent or another positive investigation in his pocket..

Unless, of course, he had viewed JiF . . . the point is that viewing Woody at some point in the game was a smart move - it just didn't help, if Woody was innocent, to tell the mafia which night it would be and give them another incentive to risk the coinflip (what we now know was non-existant)

why are you and JVOR so interested in pushing this notion that the scum might've forfeited a NK? Interested in undermining our confirmed cop?

Actually, I think Vicious is confirmed either way. If there was another finder, they'd have revealed already, if only because by not doing so Vicious has been confirmed. Of course, if we do get a counterclaim, we'll deal with it - but until then, we treat vicious as the real deal.

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JT if it means anything I trust shutout.

He was pretty much the only person who wanted Woody dead with the lynch, I just don't think a zombie would give up their own like that, we were both trying to rally the town and failed.

Doggin- I'm liking your analysis. Out of all of them I really do question Crusher the most. As you know when you make opinions and votes you're sticking your neck out, he was playful with JiF early on but I really think when JiF "turned on him" when I brought up the fact that Crusher was suspicious really annoyed him. I do think JiF wasn't excluding Crusher from his statements and next thing you know, boom, he's dead and then a sorrowful post saying good bye to JiF. Maybe I'm reading into it too much but I feel he's tried to distance himself from various scenarios.

Vic, I was playing with JiF because Im fat and he's JiF. The phrase that I bolded needs more explanation. I don't know what you mean.

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Our current roster, objectively:

1. Doggin94it

2. RaoulDuke

3. Irish Jet

4. War Ensemble

5. shutout

6. Crusher

7. Jets Things

8. Vicious98x (innocent)

9. CTM

10. Bleedin' Green

11. JVOR

(Vicious's status as innocent is confirmed, IMO - if he was mafia, the real finder should be screaming about it by now).

Vicious also knows at least one other player is innocent from his viewings last night, which means that for vicious, there are 9 unknown - 3 of which are likely mafia. Crusher is obviously one of those unknowns. That means he's got a 1 in 3 chance of being mafia, even outside of any suspicious activity.

Now, here's my list

1. Doggin94it (innocent)

2. RaoulDuke - took over for Thor, suspicious inactivity, now very active

3. Irish Jet - suspicious inactivity after being enthusiastic about signing up. Blamed on ski trip/school.

4. War Ensemble - same level of activity as prior game. No read yet.

5. shutout (presumed innocent)

6. Crusher - odd activity, weird linkage to JiF.

7. Jets Things - no read

8. Vicious98x (innocent)

9. CTM - pushed for Woody not to be investigated at all. Devious enough to risk no-kill on Vicious as confirming Woody (would work if Vic doesn't investigate Woody, which I made a possibility). Yes, I'm aware all of this applies to me as well, for the rest of you who can't know that I am, in fact, a townie.

10. Bleedin' Green - playing his typical, reasonable townie game, which he plays as both townie and mafia. No read.

11. JVOR - No read

Given all of that, I'm happy enough to vote for Crusher, as he's one of the unknowns and someone I'm mildly suspicious of. Would like to see some reaction.

As long as our doc stays alive, we should win this game

Doggin? You taught me how to be scum, and you know I'm not now. Why your pressuring me is interesting and should be to all. Funny how easily the brightest cat in this game is assuming vic is absolutely innocent because he investigated Woody. Tell me who the hell didn't know Woody wasn't lying?

Odd activity? Voting for scum and not voting for innocents is weird? Cause thats exactly what I have done this game.

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I am not undermining vicious right now. I even said that i happen to believe him now. If there was a counterclaiming cop this current day phase would be the time to step forward and no one is doing so.

I still don't buy Doggin's argument about the mafia "happening" to find the real doctor. A lot of coincidence has to occur for this to occur.

What has to go right for Doggin's theory to work

1) Mafia found out the real doctor

2) Doctor chose to protect himself and not vicious

Again, BOTH have to work out for Doggin's belief to work out. That's too unlikely for my taste. My read on the mafia is that an experienced member is running the show. The NKs have shown to be so with taking out SMC, a potential threat. My read is the 2nd night was to throw off the scent. And day 3 was to go after Jif who played like he had a role in the beginning and was the only one to act strangely in public with all the mall talk. I'm not saying this as fact, just my theory on what's happening.

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Think about it for a second. If I'm mafia, and I'm running that team, I say "shoot at vicious and play a No Kill as confirming Woody." Here's the argument I'd make:

1) "If woody is mafia, then his teammates have to know: a) that Woody is mafia; B) that there is a real doc out there; c) that the real doc knows woody is mafia; and d) that the real doc would protect Vicious";

2) "If the mafia knew the real doc would protect vicious, they'd never waste a NK targetting him";

3) "Therefore, Woody must not be mafia, and the mafia must have targeted one of Vicious or Woody and Woody won the coin flip";

4) "Of course, the other option is that the mafia targetted a random player who self protected, or that the Mafia anticipated this argument and decided to target vicious even knowing Woody is mafia and the kill would likely fail, but those are less likely scenarios and for now, we can presume Woody is a confirmed doc (pending a counterclaim or vicious investigation)"

Too complicated to ever sell, but I do see the angle now. Considering that last game both the Mafia and the serial killer targetted an outed cop, I think Occam's Razor suggests we go with the notion that the mafia was rolling the dice trying to be rid of the most dangerous town player in the game. I think Woody was going to be ignored unless vicious revealed an innocent anyway, so even if semi-confirmed through the logic chain above, he'd have been caught eventually and had no sway over the town given everyone thought he was lieing. I don't believe mafia would waste a NK in an effort to confirm a player that was going to die soon either way..

Unless, of course, he had viewed JiF . . . the point is that viewing Woody at some point in the game was a smart move - it just didn't help, if Woody was innocent, to tell the mafia which night it would be and give them another incentive to risk the coinflip (what we now know was non-existant)

I think it was unnecessary 2 nights ago. That was my point, I said it should be saved for later if no other doc showed up. In our experiance here, it's typically that doc and cop are dead or in the open by day 4 or 5. I was only preaching patience, not acceptance.

Actually, I think Vicious is confirmed either way. If there was another finder, they'd have revealed already, if only because by not doing so Vicious has been confirmed. Of course, if we do get a counterclaim, we'll deal with it - but until then, we treat vicious as the real deal.

I agree Vicious is as good as confirmed either way.

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I am not undermining vicious right now. I even said that i happen to believe him now. If there was a counterclaiming cop this current day phase would be the time to step forward and no one is doing so.

I miss read Doggin's quote maybe your's as well.

Are you saying you think the mafia elected to no kill on night 2, in order to throw the scent off?

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I am not undermining vicious right now. I even said that i happen to believe him now. If there was a counterclaiming cop this current day phase would be the time to step forward and no one is doing so.

I still don't buy Doggin's argument about the mafia "happening" to find the real doctor. A lot of coincidence has to occur for this to occur.

What has to go right for Doggin's theory to work

1) Mafia found out the real doctor

2) Doctor chose to protect himself and not vicious

Again, BOTH have to work out for Doggin's belief to work out. That's too unlikely for my taste. My read on the mafia is that an experienced member is running the show. The NKs have shown to be so with taking out SMC, a potential threat. My read is the 2nd night was to throw off the scent. And day 3 was to go after Jif who played like he had a role in the beginning and was the only one to act strangely in public with all the mall talk. I'm not saying this as fact, just my theory on what's happening.

You've been undermining me probably most out of everyone the entire game and curiously enough pushed for my questions more then Woody's out of everyone here.

Anyways, at this point I would hope more people would take a look at Doggins and my arguments on Crusher.

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