Some perspective on QBs - 1981 Championship Game

[jgb]

I think OP is describing a gunslinger type mentality. If you throw a fair amount of picks that is OK if accompanied by a even larger amount of TDs. If Geno is a gunslinger he is firing rubber bullets.

[jgb]

Geno *might* have a chance to become below average, or close to average (16-20 range), but he will never, ever, ever, ever, ever be capable of taking a team to the Superbowl. No reason to cut him, but he's done, I'd rather roll with Fitzpatrick or a draft pick.

It is like we are long lost twins

[jgb]

Of course the point is valid. I find it truly hilarious the lengths some folks will go when it comes to Geno Smith. It's like they lose any concept of objectivity.

Bradshaws first two years...

1970 - 28% completion pct. 6 tds - 24 ints for 1418 yards - in 13 games

1971 - 54% completion pct. - 13 tds - 22 ints for 2259 yards - in 14 games

His next two years were almost as bad... and keep in mind they only played 14 games back then so those interceptions are even more egregious.

1973 - 47% completion pct. - 12 tds - 12 ints for 1887 yards - in 14 games

1974 - 49% completion pct. - 10 tds - 15 ints for 1183 yards - in 10 games

Now I realize the game has changed alot in favor of the offense but by any standard he truly sucked.

We are talking about a future first ballot hall of fame player....

Now am I saying Geno will go on to have a career like Bradshaw? Of course not! The point is it is too early to totally give up on a young 3rd year qb. Thanks posting the link on Bradshaw; I hope it gives some perspective to the more open minded among us.

This is the gamblers mentality. "Someone has to win powerball why not me?" Professionals do not make decisions based on one or two very, very rare outliers. The odds are heavily, heavily tilted toward Geno sucking for all time. You do not bet a billion dollar franchise's future on a million-to-one longshot, which is what geno now is. For every Bradshaw there are 100 or more Akili And Geno Smiths. Sorry but it is the geno hopers that arent objective, clinging to a handful of examples where a HOF player had a rough start to his career for hope. Hope is not a strategy. You dont have to be a scout to watch him play and see that the game is moving way to fast for him and that he doesnt have the processor power upstairs to handle the amount of information pouring in.

[#27TheDominator]

What do Byron Leftwich, Mark Brunell, Tyrod Taylor, Matt Flynn, Tavaris Jackson and Jared Lorenzen all have in common?

[Savage69]

That is a great point but you have to admit Joe was the truth in College.  There is a reason they called him Joe "Cool" at Notre Dame... 

Just shows what a crap shoot the draft is Joe went at the end of the 3rd rd in 1979 while Simms,Jack Thompson and Steve Fuller all went in the 1st..

[peebag]

Of course the point is valid. I find it truly hilarious the lengths some folks will go when it comes to Geno Smith.  It's like they lose any concept of objectivity.  

 

Bradshaws first two years...

 

1970 - 28% completion pct.  6 tds - 24 ints for 1418 yards - in 13 games

1971 - 54% completion pct. - 13 tds - 22 ints for 2259 yards - in 14 games 

His next two years were almost as bad... and keep in mind they only played 14 games back then so those interceptions are even more egregious. 

1973 - 47% completion pct. - 12 tds - 12 ints for 1887 yards - in 14 games 

1974 - 49% completion pct. - 10 tds - 15 ints for 1183 yards - in 10 games 

 

Now I realize the game has changed alot in favor of the offense but by any standard he truly sucked.

 

We are talking about a future first ballot hall of fame player....

 

Now am I saying Geno will go on to have a career like Bradshaw?  Of course not!  The point is it is too early to totally give up on a young 3rd year qb.  Thanks posting the link on Bradshaw; I hope it gives some perspective to the more open minded among us.  

 

Bradshaw also had a all - world defense -> up until '78 he wasn't asked to carry the load.  And even then he had a HOF Running Back and HOF WRs to help out.

[Ex-Rex]

Disclaimer: No I am NOT comparing any of our QBs to Montana, just making a point

 

This game is on NFL Network right now, and here we have maybe the greatest QB in one of the best and most famous games ever played, especially "the catch"

 

and yet, Montana is doing a bunch of the things we have  absolutely no tolerance for in our own QBs. He is consistently:

 

Going backwards from pressure

Locking completely on to his primary receiver (caused 1 int)

Making poor decisions on throws (3 ints)  that are very Sanchez/Geno like

 

Obviously, yes he also makes a lot of plays. He's Joe F'in Montana, legend.

 

Point is that sometimes I think that both fans and modern coaches (especially defensive ones) are so locked into this mentality that the QB has to "protect the football" that they also stifle the ability of the QB to make plays, to WIN games.

 

It is why I think it is way too premature to think Geno cannot develop with the right system and coaching into a good even top tier QB. He certainly has the tools.

 

If Montana, even at the peak of his ability was still making some of the mistakes that people completely bash Geno for in his first and second years. Geno MAY VERY WELL SUCK, but when you consider the coaching he has had, and how difficult the QB position is, I do not think it is unreasonable to at least see if he can develop. We should also continue looking for the next guy in the draft.

 

Just a thought. Bash away.

My biggest take on Geno is his inability to recognize and read the defense. He singlehandedly cost the Jets the NE game by taking a sack with the team in FG range. Brady, Manning, etc...would have recognized the all out max blitz and changed the blocking or gotten out of the play called all together. That game made me sick and I have been down on Geno ever since. Inexcuseable, and he even called it that in his press conference but that is the easy part. Sanchez took responsibility for his mistakes EVERY time and then would go out and repeat the mistakes. I see Geno as very similar.

[peekskill68]

I would like to see Geno for one year without Rex just to convince myself he sucks...

[Jet Fan RI]

Geno *might* have a chance to become below average, or close to average (16-20 range), but he will never, ever, ever, ever, ever be capable of taking a team to the Superbowl. No reason to cut him, but he's done, I'd rather roll with Fitzpatrick or a draft pick.

 

OK. Can you explain what it is about Geno that makes you feel it is impossible for him to turn it around after 2 poor seasons, when a guy like Bradshaw, who arguably had an even worse first two seasons, was in fact able to turn it around? And win 4 SB's to boot.

[Sperm Edwards]

My biggest take on Geno is his inability to recognize and read the defense. He singlehandedly cost the Jets the NE game by taking a sack with the team in FG range. Brady, Manning, etc...would have recognized the all out max blitz and changed the blocking or gotten out of the play called all together. That game made me sick and I have been down on Geno ever since. Inexcuseable, and he even called it that in his press conference but that is the easy part. Sanchez took responsibility for his mistakes EVERY time and then would go out and repeat the mistakes. I see Geno as very similar.

 

False.

[JohnnyLV]

My biggest take on Geno is his inability to recognize and read the defense. He singlehandedly cost the Jets the NE game by taking a sack with the team in FG range. Brady, Manning, etc...would have recognized the all out max blitz and changed the blocking or gotten out of the play called all together. That game made me sick and I have been down on Geno ever since. Inexcuseable, and he even called it that in his press conference but that is the easy part. Sanchez took responsibility for his mistakes EVERY time and then would go out and repeat the mistakes. I see Geno as very similar.

 

It was a very bad play. But if I remember it right it was a jailbreak blitz up the middle and he had no chance. We also don'y know whether he was able to check out. Remember, this is the coaching staff that told him to throw to his first read only open or not. As I mentioned even Montana in a super bowl winning year was moving straight back against the rush. I think we need to see what Geno can do with real coaching. He is very talented.

[Saul Goodman]

OK. Can you explain what it is about Geno that makes you feel it is impossible for him to turn it around after 2 poor seasons, when a guy like Bradshaw, who arguably had an even worse first two seasons, was in fact able to turn it around? And win 4 SB's to boot.

 

His lack of accuracy is probably his number one weakness. Far too often, he just can't get the ball to where he wants it to go. Sounds simplistic, I know, but if a QB doesn't have accuracy, he's doomed.

 

Now, Geno does get on hot streaks where he's completing a string of passes accurately (i.e. Miami game). But those are virtually all first-read completions. He's not going through his progressions, looking at first read, looking off a safety, then going to option 2 and 3, then completing a pass. I'm sure you could find a highlight where he does this, but it's the rare exception.

 

People rip on his work ethic and his immaturity, and he may lack in those departments as well, but his lack of accuracy and inability to go through his progressions are his fatal flaws. He can not improve enough on those things to ever be a top-tier QB. IMHO.

[JohnnyLV]

His lack of accuracy is probably his number one weakness. Far too often, he just can't get the ball to where he wants it to go. Sounds simplistic, I know, but if a QB doesn't have accuracy, he's doomed.

 

Now, Geno does get on hot streaks where he's completing a string of passes accurately (i.e. Miami game). But those are virtually all first-read completions. He's not going through his progressions, looking at first read, looking off a safety, then going to option 2 and 3, then completing a pass. I'm sure you could find a highlight where he does this, but it's the rare exception.

 

People rip on his work ethic and his immaturity, and he may lack in those departments as well, but his lack of accuracy and inability to go through his progressions are his fatal flaws. He can not improve enough on those things to ever be a top-tier QB. IMHO.

 

Again the first read thing was Rex's and Morniwheg's idiotic coaching/ If you watched Geno early he went through progressions fine. I am mean seeriously, Rex just said he want to run 50 times a game in Buffalo. He does not want to pass AT ALL. So he forces the OC to play so conservative (first read, wildcat, run on first and second down, etc...) that is puts the QB in a no win situation. Have to let your QB PLAY.

[Gastineau Lives]

What do Byron Leftwich, Mark Brunell, Tyrod Taylor, Matt Flynn, Tavaris Jackson and Jared Lorenzen all have in common?

 

They were all better than Terry Bradshaw in his first two years and people gave up on them too quickly?

 

Oh wait, Rex loves Tyrod Taylor, so he still has a chance at multiple Super Bowls.

[jack48]

So you're saying Geno is as good as Montana?

Are we talking about in their respective eras----or right now?

[Jet Fan RI]

His lack of accuracy is probably his number one weakness. Far too often, he just can't get the ball to where he wants it to go. Sounds simplistic, I know, but if a QB doesn't have accuracy, he's doomed.

 

Now, Geno does get on hot streaks where he's completing a string of passes accurately (i.e. Miami game). But those are virtually all first-read completions. He's not going through his progressions, looking at first read, looking off a safety, then going to option 2 and 3, then completing a pass. I'm sure you could find a highlight where he does this, but it's the rare exception.

 

People rip on his work ethic and his immaturity, and he may lack in those departments as well, but his lack of accuracy and inability to go through his progressions are his fatal flaws. He can not improve enough on those things to ever be a top-tier QB. IMHO.

 

 

Sounds like a guy who needs more seasoning, no? I'll bet what you say here applied to Bradshaw as well, not only for his first 2 seasons, but for most of his first 5 seasons. Geno has shown flashes of brilliance, (eg, the Miami game). Perhaps with another season or two of experience he can learn how to go through the progressions. I'm certainly willing to give him at least one more season. Maybe two. 

[jgb]

OK. Can you explain what it is about Geno that makes you feel it is impossible for him to turn it around after 2 poor seasons, when a guy like Bradshaw, who arguably had an even worse first two seasons, was in fact able to turn it around? And win 4 SB's to boot.

You are confusing "impossible" with "ridiculously highly unlikely"

[Jet Fan RI]

You are confusing "impossible" with "ridiculously highly unlikely"

 

Perhaps. But as a Jet fan, I will choose to be optimistic until proven otherwise.

[jgb]

Perhaps. But as a Jet fan, I will choose to be optimistic until proven otherwise.

And thats fine. To me, it has already been proven over course of two years that he sucks and there is no rational basis for hope. We dont have to agree to understand where each other is coming from.

I of course hope youre right.

[Jet Fan RI]

And thats fine. To me, it has already been proven over course of two years that he sucks and there is no rational basis for hope. We dont have to agree to understand where each other is coming from.

I of course hope youre right.

 

But let me ask you. If you were a Steeler fan in the early days of Brawshaw, would you have wanted his scalp too? I'm assuming you followed the link to his stats. First 2 years worse than Geno. First 5 years not much better, if at all.

[jgb]

But let me ask you. If you were a Steeler fan in the early days of Brawshaw, would you have wanted his scalp too? I'm assuming you followed the link to his stats. First 2 years worse than Geno. First 5 years not much better, if at all.

Problem is that mentality would mean not giving up quickly enough on obvious bums and paralyze you with indecision (oh no what if this stiff is the next Bradshaw!). Other than stats, there is no comparison--zero--between Geno and Bradshaw. My belief that he stinks is not from statistics, but the fact he looks like a lost puppy on the field and my conclusion that he is too stupid to play QB in NFL. These things cannot be fixed.

[Jet Fan RI]

Problem is that mentality would mean not giving up quickly enough on obvious bums and paralyze you with indecision (oh no what if this stiff is the next Bradshaw!). Other than stats, there is no comparison--zero--between Geno and Bradshaw. My belief that he stinks is not from statistics, but the fact he looks like a lost puppy on the field and my conclusion that he is too stupid to play QB in NFL. These things cannot be fixed.

 

OK. Well, I'll still keep my hopes up until his play this season proves otherwise.

[Larz]

if the int is a jump ball on 3rd and 14 and the CB makes a play, oh well

 

if the int is right into a linebackers gut and he returns it 40 yards, that's gonna hurt

 

 

[Beerfish]

Some perspective on QB's superbowl appearances:

 

In the last 16 years only twice was the superbowl game played between two 1st round QB's  (And one of those years was Trent Dilfer vs Kerry Collins)

Twice it was played between a 6th rounder and an UDFA.

 

The Manning brothers both 1-1 (5 superbowls)

Donovan McNabb 1-2 (1 superbowl)

Steve McNair 1-3 (1 superbowl)

Kerry Collins 1-5 (1 superbowl)

Trent Dilfer 1-6 (1 superbowl)

Ben Roeths 1-11 (3 superbowl)

Joe Flacco 1-18 (1 superbowl)

Aaron Rogers 1-22 (1 superbowl)

Rex Grossman 1-22 (1 superbowl)

Drew Brees 2nd round (1 superbowl)

Colin Kaep 2nd round (1 superbowl)

Russel Wilson 3rd round (1 superbowl)

Rich Gannon 4th round (1 superbowl)

Matt Hasselback 6th round (1 superbowl)

Tom Brady 6th round (6 superbowls)

Brad Johnson 9th round (1 superbowl)

Jake Delhomme UDFA (1 superbowl)

Kurt Warner UDFA (3 superbowls)

[Savage69]

But let me ask you. If you were a Steeler fan in the early days of Brawshaw, would you have wanted his scalp too? I'm assuming you followed the link to his stats. First 2 years worse than Geno. First 5 years not much better, if at all.

Prior to 1978 and the rule changes which helped the offense you can't compare the players from that time to today..

[Jet Fan RI]

Prior to 1978 and the rule changes which helped the offense you can't compare the players from that time to today..

 

I think you can compare. Bradshaw was awful against his contemporaries, Geno is awful against his contemporaries. Still think the point is valid that it's wrong to try to judge a QB's talent in just 2 years.

[Beerfish]

I think you can compare. Bradshaw was awful against his contemporaries, Geno is awful against his contemporaries. Still think the point is valid that it's wrong to try to judge a QB's talent in just 2 years.

It's all about progression not regression in my opinion.

 

You get all the leeway in the world as a rookie, mistakes will be made for all sorts of reasons.  In year two there should be less glaring mistakes to go along with more quality play.  You may not be there yet but you can see tangible progress.  If a QB does not make enough progress or makes some progress in a few areas but regresses in others then he immediately becomes a suspect.  Smith is still on the team but he needs to make a HUGE improvement in all areas of his game or he is down the road after this year, just as it should be,

[Jet Fan RI]

It's all about progression not regression in my opinion.

 

You get all the leeway in the world as a rookie, mistakes will be made for all sorts of reasons.  In year two there should be less glaring mistakes to go along with more quality play.  You may not be there yet but you can see tangible progress.  If a QB does not make enough progress or makes some progress in a few areas but regresses in others then he immediately becomes a suspect.  Smith is still on the team but he needs to make a HUGE improvement in all areas of his game or he is down the road after this year, just as it should be,

 

Just curious. Did you look at Bradshaw's stats at the link posted further up the thread? Do you think it would have been right to expect huge improvement out of him in his 3rd season? From what I can see, his stats were  pretty poor his first five seasons. It seems to have paid off for the Steelers to stick with him.

[Beerfish]

Just curious. Did you look at Bradshaw's stats at the link posted further up the thread? Do you think it would have been right to expect huge improvement out of him in his 3rd season? From what I can see, his stats were  pretty poor his first five seasons. It seems to have paid off for the Steelers to stick with him.

1) Not one team in this league will stick with any sub par Qb for 5 years these days.

2) For every Bradshaw there are 50 Harrington, Gabbert, Ponder, Leaf, Locker...etc etc etc etc etc etc

 

If you want to give each QB 5 years and let them sewer years when you actually have other roster players who are good then by all means.

 

The college game and expectations are far different than the Bradshaw era.

[Jet Fan RI]

1) Not one team in this league will stick with any sub par Qb for 5 years these days.

2) For every Bradshaw there are 50 Harrington, Gabbert, Ponder, Leaf, Locker...etc etc etc etc etc etc

 

If you want to give each QB 5 years and let them sewer years when you actually have other roster players who are good then by all means.

 

The college game and expectations are far different than the Bradshaw era.

 

 

No doubt about it. But I wonder if the game is better for that. And I wonder if there are any ex-QB's selling cars right now who might have won a SB if given more time to develop. Look at the case of Kurt Warner. Rescued from arena football before winning a SB.

[Savage69]

I think you can compare. Bradshaw was awful against his contemporaries, Geno is awful against his contemporaries. Still think the point is valid that it's wrong to try to judge a QB's talent in just 2 years.

My point was it was harder to play QB pre 1978 had Geno played then he would have been a CB or a ST player..

[Beerfish]

No doubt about it. But I wonder if the game is better for that. And I wonder if there are any ex-QB's selling cars right now who might have won a SB if given more time to develop. Look at the case of Kurt Warner. Rescued from arena football before winning a SB.

Here is the difference, once Warner was rescued it took and injury to Trent Green to really give him a chance and he was almost immediately very good.  If Kurt Warner had played like Geno Smith has played after two years he would have been down the road in an instant.

[Jet Fan RI]

Here is the difference, once Warner was rescued it took and injury to Trent Green to really give him a chance and he was almost immediately very good.  If Kurt Warner had played like Geno Smith has played after two years he would have been down the road in an instant.

 

But why was he even in the arena league?

[Jet Fan RI]

My point was it was harder to play QB pre 1978 had Geno played then he would have been a CB or a ST player..

 

But my point is that if Bradshaw was playing today he probably would have been cut after his first 2 years.

[johnnyjet]

I would like to see Geno for one year without Rex just to convince myself he sucks...

I'm convinced already