Larz Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 no, I'm not saying the jets should do this, just starting a discussion. he makes some solid points backed up by hard data http://sportsillustr...p&sct=hp_t11_a2 meet Kevin Kelley, head football coach of Pulaski Academy in Little Rock, Ark. Actually, perhaps you've met him already. Kelley has become a cult figure among both football coaches and the sports analytics community for his disregard -- contempt even -- for traditional football wisdom. He's been featured in Sports Illustrated. He figured prominently in Scorecasting. He's been a regular at coaching clinics and at the annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. For one, Kelley doesn't believe in punting. His Bruins teams go for it on fourth down, even in the most extreme situations. His playbook is filled with tricks and gimmicks. He often forbids his players to return punts, reckoning that the odds of a fumble outstrip the incremental yards that can be gained from a return. After his team scores, it almost always attempts an onside kick. There are 12 varieties in the playbook -- including one in which the ball is placed flat on the ground -- and Kelley figures that the chance of recovery outweighs the risk of allowing the opposition to start a drive near midfield. The funny thing about Kelley: He's not a mad scientist or an iconoclast, zigging where everyone else is zagging, for the hell of it. Rather, he's a relentlessly rational sort whose methods have backing in data. The decision not to punt? According to Kelley's statistics, when a team punts from near its end zone, the opponent will take possession inside the 40-yard line and will then score a touchdown 77 percent of the time. If it recovers on downs inside the 10, it will score a touchdown 92 percent of the time. "So [forsaking] a punt, you give your offense a chance to stay on the field," he said. "And if you miss, the odds of the other team scoring only increase 15 percent. It's like someone said, '[Punting] is what you do on fourth down,' and everyone did it without asking why." Still, even for Pulaski fans who have come to expect the unexpected, Kelley outdid himself last Friday night. The Bruins visited the Cabot Panthers, one of the best teams in Arkansas and a school with roughly five times the student body of Pulaski. More than 8,000 fans packed the bleachers. One of the state's network affiliates televised the game. Another held its evening news from the sidelines. With Kelley calling plays, Pulaski scored on its first drive. Naturally, the Bruins then attempted an onside kick, which they recovered. Soon, they scored another touchdown. They repeated the drill -- onside kick, recovery, touchdown -- again. And then again. With 8:35 left in the 12-minute first quarter, Cabot trailed Pulaski 29-0 and had yet to run a play from scrimmage. As Pulaski prepared to attempt its fourth onside kick, Cabot called timeout. ("Not too often you see timeout called as the receiving team lines up for a first-quarter kickoff," Kelley said.) Finally, Cabot recovered the kick and began its first offensive set of downs. Cue: more unconventional calls from Kelley. On defense, Pulaski put all 11 players in the box, leaving every receiver uncovered. The strategy worked, too, as the quarterback misfired under the pressure (and, surely, the unprecedented experience) of facing an 11-man rush. After the 29-0 outburst, the game was remarkably close. Pulaski ended up winning by 30 points, 64-34, racking up 664 yards in total offense and getting eight touchdowns from quarterback Fredi Knighten (the Bruins also recovered a total of five onside kicks). Pulaski moved to No. 3 in the state AP poll and retained its No. 1 ranking in Arkansas Class 4A, a good bet to win a third state title in the last eight years. The Bruins also climbed from 99th to 75th in the Rivals Top 100 national rankings, not bad for a school with just 350 students. It makes for a strong endorsement of its coach's methods. "Honestly, the more football I see, the more I'm convinced we're right," Kelley said. "That game the other night, they were just stunned. Emotionally, it takes so much out of you when the other team goes for it successfully or recovers an onside kick -- or three of them in a row." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUM-KNEE Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Thats a ballsey approach, even for HS. Doubt it would be a good idea in the pros though. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoping4ASuperBowl Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 That stuff might be fun in the per wee's, but his is the NFL. You're not here to have fun. You play to win he game!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larz Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 this isn't some pee wee team, it's the 75th ranked high school program nationally, and with a student body of 350 kids, you have to assume it's because of the strategery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Jet Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Too much money at stake for anyone to have the balls to try this sh*t at the pro-level, though it would be awesome to see how it would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larz Posted September 16, 2011 Author Share Posted September 16, 2011 you could modify it for the NFL, maybe try a few surprise onsides, only punt from your own 40 and in.....I mean if the NFL fears nothing more than turnovers, why just give the ball to your opponent ? I know it's a field position assumption, but a lot of INT's are really like punts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slats Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 I'd be interested in the TD stats on the punts in the NFL. I think I'd be surprised if receiving teams scored TD's 77% of when a punted to from inside the 10. I've heard that always going for it thing before. I don't play Madden, but who punts when they play that game? NFL coaches are very conservative by nature. When they break the mold, they often have success. Bill Walsh changed the game with his short pass ball control offense, and won a few Super Bowls in the process. Mike Martz breaks from tradition (and onsides kicked against Al Groh's Jets unexpectedly), and had some success. Sean Payton will forever be remember for his onsides kick to open the second half of the Super Bowl. If just one NFL coach had the balls to start running onsides kicks nearly every kickoff -and had success- he would be followed quickly. It would be great if some perennial loser decided to use this same strategy only to see it work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackout Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 last thing I wanna see is every kick being an onside kick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycdan Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 There's a time and place for being conservative, but I always felt that punting on 4th and short from mid-field was for pussies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ylekram Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 a friend of mine,an old guy from san fran, has been telling me this for years. always asking my input.it usually is"if it works.great! if not it sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 WTF. Numbers? NUMBERS??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharrow Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 I'd be interested in the TD stats on the punts in the NFL. I think I'd be surprised if receiving teams scored TD's 77% of when a punted to from inside the 10. I've heard that always going for it thing before. I don't play Madden, but who punts when they play that game? NFL coaches are very conservative by nature. When they break the mold, they often have success. Bill Walsh changed the game with his short pass ball control offense, and won a few Super Bowls in the process. Mike Martz breaks from tradition (and onsides kicked against Al Groh's Jets unexpectedly), and had some success. Sean Payton will forever be remember for his onsides kick to open the second half of the Super Bowl. If just one NFL coach had the balls to start running onsides kicks nearly every kickoff -and had success- he would be followed quickly. It would be great if some perennial loser decided to use this same strategy only to see it work. Yeah, I really doubt that. Redzone TD % aren't even that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoubleDown Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 An unconventional strategy to such an extreme would never work in the NFL, but there is room for more aggression in certain situations. The success rate of an onside kick in the NFL is less than 20%, but it rises to a substantial 60% during surprise attempts. With kickoffs moved up to the 35 yard line, it could be a good strategy to increase the number of surprise onside kicks. The odds of keeping possession of the ball are fairly good, and the field position risk is lower since opposing teams would recover near midfield, which is at least one first down outside of FG range. Also, I believe some teams will start to attempt 4th and less than 5 between the 30's much more frequently as the game changes and evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StraightCash Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 His defense also employs the "11 man pass rush"... I'd love to see the stats supporting that theory, but apparently it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 I'm guessing Kevin Kelley was the only guy who supported Steve Weatherford going for it on 4th & 17 last year? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Jet Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 His defense also employs the "11 man pass rush"... I'd love to see the stats supporting that theory, but apparently it works. At Pro level it would be far too easy to counter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyHector Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Another factor as to why this strategy can be employed more easily at this level is that 99% of high school kickers suck. If the other team needs to move the ball inside your 20 to even have a 50% chance (if not less) of putting 3 points on the board, then the risk of giving up field position is minimized. Given the fact that the punters also suck and aren't booming 60 yard kicks, forgoing punting and potentially sustaining a scoring drive could easily swing the net scoring in these situations in your favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyHector Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 At Pro level it would be far too easy to counter. ...until your QB turns his back to the rush while holding the football like a loaf of bread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flgreen Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Another factor as to why this strategy can be employed more easily at this level is that 99% of high school kickers suck. If the other team needs to move the ball inside your 20 to even have a 50% chance (if not less) of putting 3 points on the board, then the risk of giving up field position is minimized. Given the fact that the punters also suck and aren't booming 60 yard kicks, forgoing punting and potentially sustaining a scoring drive could easily swing the net scoring in these situations in your favor. Agreed. Plus most HS QB's aren't Brady or Manning. A good bit of them are wild cat kind of guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aec4 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 I'd be interested in the TD stats on the punts in the NFL. I think I'd be surprised if receiving teams scored TD's 77% of when a punted to from inside the 10. I've heard that always going for it thing before. I don't play Madden, but who punts when they play that game? NFL coaches are very conservative by nature. When they break the mold, they often have success. Bill Walsh changed the game with his short pass ball control offense, and won a few Super Bowls in the process. Mike Martz breaks from tradition (and onsides kicked against Al Groh's Jets unexpectedly), and had some success. Sean Payton will forever be remember for his onsides kick to open the second half of the Super Bowl. If just one NFL coach had the balls to start running onsides kicks nearly every kickoff -and had success- he would be followed quickly. It would be great if some perennial loser decided to use this same strategy only to see it work. Remember, a HS punter is lucky to kick it 30 yds. A pro punter hits it 45, with hang time for no return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barcs Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 I personally feel if there's less than 3 minutes, try the onsides kick. I WISH we did that in the Steelers game instead of punting it away and never having a chance. Relying on a good defense does work as well, but it's not guaranteed that the defense will always get a 3 and out. I don't really like that strategy most of the time, unless its against a weak offense. It seems article refers to doing an onside kick every time, but in the NFL you can't get away with that. Onsides kicks usually do not work in the NFL. I couldn't imagine doing that every single time in college level or above unless your team is absolutely dominant on special teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 I'd be interested in the TD stats on the punts in the NFL. I think I'd be surprised if receiving teams scored TD's 77% of when a punted to from inside the 10. I've heard that always going for it thing before. I don't play Madden, but who punts when they play that game? NFL coaches are very conservative by nature. When they break the mold, they often have success. Bill Walsh changed the game with his short pass ball control offense, and won a few Super Bowls in the process. Mike Martz breaks from tradition (and onsides kicked against Al Groh's Jets unexpectedly), and had some success. Sean Payton will forever be remember for his onsides kick to open the second half of the Super Bowl. If just one NFL coach had the balls to start running onsides kicks nearly every kickoff -and had success- he would be followed quickly. It would be great if some perennial loser decided to use this same strategy only to see it work. I'd like to see a team that start 1-8 give it a wing... the only problem of course is that bad teams are less likely of converting fourth downs// hoenstly the pats should do it every game... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StraightCash Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 At Pro level it would be far too easy to counter. NO WAY!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larz Posted September 16, 2011 Author Share Posted September 16, 2011 His defense also employs the "11 man pass rush"... I'd love to see the stats supporting that theory, but apparently it works. yeah, that's a high school thing, in the NFL that's a guaranteed TD for the O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Il Mostro Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Sounds like football on acid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larz Posted September 17, 2011 Author Share Posted September 17, 2011 tell ya what, the old "first 3 kids crush the return teams hands guys and then 4 kids come in for the recovery" is a pretty savvy onsides westhoff likey ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroadwayJ667 Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Thats a ballsey approach, even for HS. Doubt it would be a good idea in the pros though. LOL True, you can get away with a lot more at the lower levels of football, particularly high school. However I like his approach and think coaches should take more risks. In the pros not to his extent but willing to take more risks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUM-KNEE Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 True, you can get away with a lot more at the lower levels of football, particularly high school. However I like his approach and think coaches should take more risks. In the pros not to his extent but willing to take more risks. Yeah Id like to see more risk taking going on in the pros too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycdan Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Yeah Id like to see more risk taking going on in the pros too. Well we did try some crazy stuff last week, like throwing on 1st down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lamont_jordan_rules Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Mike Martz breaks from tradition (and onsides kicked against Al Groh's Jets unexpectedly), ... unexpectedly with the game already locked up .. .believe in the 4th quarter ... that f*cking c*cks*cker!!! ... ... agree that the idea in general is exciting ... believe parcells & the enemy bb go for it on 4th downs more than is traditionally done ... l_j_r Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aten Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 I'd like to see a team that start 1-8 give it a wing... the only problem of course is that bad teams are less likely of converting fourth downs// hoenstly the pats should do it every game... Nobody should do it. It's stupid. The statistics don't matter. These are game theory decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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