slats Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Minnesota is in full blow it up and rebuild mode so immediate parts dont really matter to them. Draft picks are what teams like that look for. Harvin will get them a compensatory 3 so thats why the cost is likely a 3 and 5 or 6 for the player. If the Jets trade Holmes the cap hit isnt high. Its the factor that everyone overlooks in the Jets deals with many of these players. The Jets guarantee salary and while that makes it difficult to cut certain players (Scott, Bart) you can trade them. In Holmes case the dead cap is only 1.25 million (with another 3.75 next year) with the other team taking on $14-$15 million in guarantees. If things dont work out this season and the defense makes a full transition to 4-3 Id expect Holmes, Sanchez, Harris, and Cromartie to all be shopped. They wont find a buyer for all 4, but one or two gives the Jets a tremendous amount of cap room to improve the team. There you go, then. I was using your site, but obviously I didn't see how the dead money was tied to guarantees and not bonuses. Thanks for clearing that up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason423 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 There you go, then. I was using your site, but obviously I didn't see how the dead money was tied to guarantees and not bonuses. Thanks for clearing that up! With the way the Jets structure deals now and their willingness to make a deal I probably need to do a better job of the trade cost of the player. For the Jets its a distinct part of their salary strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pointman Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Hi Jason423, your posts are awesome. Sounds like you are on point as far as your knowledge of all things Jets and cap room. I hope you are spot on. Cause dumping Holmes would make me so happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pointman Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 There you go, then. I was using your site, but obviously I didn't see how the dead money was tied to guarantees and not bonuses. Thanks for clearing that up! Link me please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Link me please. Jason's site is www.nyjetscap.com He usually has a link in his signature to his latest article. Right now he has a very interesting one about pass rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Jet Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Cimini just gave this some credence on ESPNRadio. He says it's "something to keep an eye on." His source is Jetnation and that "something" is this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FloridaJetsFan Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Jason's site is www.nyjetscap.com He usually has a link in his signature to his latest article. Right now he has a very interesting one about pass rush. I thought his site was www.youporn.com? Wasn't he the guy with the "mature MILF," RE - Grandma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pointman Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Jason's site is www.nyjetscap.com He usually has a link in his signature to his latest article. Right now he has a very interesting one about pass rush. Awesome. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason423 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Jason's site is www.nyjetscap.com He usually has a link in his signature to his latest article. Right now he has a very interesting one about pass rush. One of these days I should update my signature. I think that article is like 2 months old! Maybe tomorrow Ill do it, but in the meantime here is a salary cap related article... http://www.nyjetscap.com/2012_Articles/nflrisk.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 no no no no no The Jets just need to play their season out as is and take their medicine. Then you build smartly jn the draft and have good teams for years then at some lucky point ten years from now maybe we will be lucky enough to actually discard expensive or disgruntled players. We just drafted a couple quality guys in mid to late rounds. Look at Demario Davis!! Now we want to trade two good picks for a wide receiver???? News flash we don't have a ****ig quarterback!!! Tannenbaum should be fired if this happens. If we drafted right this a$$hole wouldn't be nearly as important with his cap brilliance . Woody is not the steady hand our team needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pointman Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 no no no no no The Jets just need to play their season out as is and take their medicine. Then you build smartly jn the draft and have good teams for years then at some lucky point ten years from now maybe we will be lucky enough to actually discard expensive or disgruntled players. We just drafted a couple quality guys in mid to late rounds. Look at Demario Davis!! Now we want to trade two good picks for a wide receiver???? News flash we don't have a ****ig quarterback!!! Tannenbaum should be fired if this happens. If we drafted right this a$$hole wouldn't be nearly as important with his cap brilliance . Woody is not the steady hand our team needs. Tannenbaum should be fired if he goes out and acquires a dynamic wide receiver? OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 no no no no no The Jets just need to play their season out as is and take their medicine. Then you build smartly jn the draft and have good teams for years then at some lucky point ten years from now maybe we will be lucky enough to actually discard expensive or disgruntled players. We just drafted a couple quality guys in mid to late rounds. Look at Demario Davis!! Now we want to trade two good picks for a wide receiver???? News flash we don't have a ****ig quarterback!!! Tannenbaum should be fired if this happens. If we drafted right this a$$hole wouldn't be nearly as important with his cap brilliance . Woody is not the steady hand our team needs. If you can rid your team of Santonio Holmes' contract and attitude while only incurring ~$5 mil in charges, you do it. If you get a younger, faster receiver in return, all the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Troll Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Percy Harvin isn't even on the trading block. At least come up with a Mike Wallace rumor, dipsh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slats Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 If you can rid your team of Santonio Holmes' contract and attitude while only incurring ~$5 mil in charges, you do it. If you get a younger, faster receiver in return, all the better. This is a fan wishlist, not reality. While it would be great for the Jets to get Santonio's guaranteed contract off the books, what's the advantage for the Vikings? If they don't want to pay Harvin, why would they want to pay Santonio more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 This is a fan wishlist, not reality. While it would be great for the Jets to get Santonio's guaranteed contract off the books, what's the advantage for the Vikings? If they don't want to pay Harvin, why would they want to pay Santonio more? I was speaking of the philosophy of the proposed deal, not the reality. Obviously, nobody but Tannenbaum thinks Holmes is worth what he's paid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Nobody is taking santonio Holmes And people think I'm crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Why do we need to spend picks to find a guy that can run a flag pattern into the right flat? That's the new offense and we already have guys that can do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Tannenbaum should be fired if this happens. If we drafted right this a$$hole wouldn't be nearly as important with his cap brilliance . Woody is not the steady hand our team needs. Awesome. Thank you. It is awesome, but don't thank me. Thank Jason. Tannenbaum should be fired if this happens. If we drafted right this a$$hole wouldn't be nearly as important with his cap brilliance . Woody is not the steady hand our team needs. I couldn't tell where your post drifted from sarcasm to seriousness, but is this part serious? Woody is not the steady hand this team needs because he doesn't immediately fire a GM because of an 8-8 season following two deep playoff runs? That part is sarcastic, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 It is awesome, but don't thank me. Thank Jason. I couldn't tell where your post drifted from sarcasm to seriousness, but is this part serious? Woody is not the steady hand this team needs because he doesn't immediately fire a GM because of an 8-8 season following two deep playoff runs? That part is sarcastic, right? Lol I was moving furniture yesterday and jumbled two seperate thoughts in my haste to save the Internet. I will clarify- Its obvious that Woody doesn't know football. I would probably say that he's not much of an investor either. IF these rumors are valid, then the man has no patience. Using history as a guide, then Just using this one example, we haven't had one snap in the regular season. How can you go start trading away next years draft already? Do we really have that little faith in our scouting department that they can't go find a new wide receiver in next years class? Like I said, if history is a guide, this isn't how you build a team, it how you swing for the fence. Now on to Tannenbaum. Being a GM is more than being a cap accountant. See, if we are trading picks every year to build through free agency, then logically I have to make two conclusions: he doesn't work numbers out quite as well as we think, because we have to trade off picks to get new talent; and secondly, by trading our picks to other teams he is paying them a premium for their work, which is either a- admitting that he can't draft as well as they can, or b- he is now afraid to take a risk and would prefer to pay a premium of 2:1 for proven players in free agency. I don't buy the argument that all picks are a crapshoot and some guys never make the team when you're dealing a third and fifth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slats Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Now on to Tannenbaum [..] by trading our picks to other teams he is paying them a premium for their work, which is either a- admitting that he can't draft as well as they can, or b- he is now afraid to take a risk and would prefer to pay a premium of 2:1 for proven players in free agency. I don't buy the argument that all picks are a crapshoot and some guys never make the team when you're dealing a third and fifth. I agree with this wholeheartedly, and would be very unhappy if the Jets made this rumored move for Harvin because of it. Think about the resources involved here: A 3rd & a 5th round pick plus $8M/year or so in salary in exchange for one player. One WR. That's enough for four decent to very good players on the team next year - two guys selected with those picks, and a couple FAs in the $4M/year range. Jets have needs right now on the OL, and at RB, TE, and LB. They could plug away at all of them with those resources next year, or they could have a fine WR in Percy Harvin and a lot of other holes. I really feel Tanny needs to start reversing his trend of trading away picks and begin building some depth here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Have you ever seen me comment on the ouvre of Bill Parcells? Chock full of bon mots. Parcells hired Terry Bradway who hired Herm Edwards. yeahhhhhhh they arent gunna trade david harris. hes part of the core, believe it or not. No one thought we'd trade Jonathan Vilma. Until we moved to a 3-4. Now that we're moving back to more 4-3 looks, plodding, run-stopping LB's who can't cover have less value. Hence Bart Scott shedding lb's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Lol I was moving furniture yesterday and jumbled two seperate thoughts in my haste to save the Internet. I will clarify- Its obvious that Woody doesn't know football. I would probably say that he's not much of an investor either. IF these rumors are valid, then the man has no patience. How does this follow logically? If you don't know football and aren't much of an investor you have no patience? My mother doens't know much football (she's a Jets fan <gasp>) and isn't much of an investor. Guess she is impatient. Using history as a guide, then Just using this one example, we haven't had one snap in the regular season. How can you go start trading away next years draft already? Do we really have that little faith in our scouting department that they can't go find a new wide receiver in next years class? Like I said, if history is a guide, this isn't how you build a team, it how you swing for the fence. Now on to Tannenbaum. Being a GM is more than being a cap accountant. See, if we are trading picks every year to build through free agency, then logically I have to make two conclusions: he doesn't work numbers out quite as well as we think, because we have to trade off picks to get new talent; and secondly, by trading our picks to other teams he is paying them a premium for their work, which is either a- admitting that he can't draft as well as they can, or b- he is now afraid to take a risk and would prefer to pay a premium of 2:1 for proven players in free agency. I don't buy the argument that all picks are a crapshoot and some guys never make the team when you're dealing a third and fifth. Not sure how that is using history as your guide, but whatever. I'd be happy to hold onto the picks, but as for Harvin, the whole reason for these rumors is Tannenbaum's supposed infatuation. There is another thing to consider when making a deal like this: we are talking about next year's picks. .The rule of thumb is that you discount them one round, so even if we are discussing a 3rd and 5th, that's like a 4th and 6th. Personally, I don't want this move, but I don't see how we can declare it the end of the world until we know the pick and cap ramifications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Not sure how that is using history as your guide, but whatever. I'd be happy to hold onto the picks, but as for Harvin, the whole reason for these rumors is Tannenbaum's supposed infatuation. There is another thing to consider when making a deal like this: we are talking about next year's picks. .The rule of thumb is that you discount them one round, so even if we are discussing a 3rd and 5th, that's like a 4th and 6th. Personally, I don't want this move, but I don't see how we can declare it the end of the world until we know the pick and cap ramifications. I'm speechless. How can we not base this discussion on the basic principle that the Jets trade away too many future draft picks almost every year? And secondly, where have you seen the value of future draft picks discounted, and what's the logic behind it? Is it because you're getting today's production for tomorrow's payment? What about the cash premium being paid today and in future seasons to a proven player that Slats pointed out, versus the CBA ceiling due to a draft pick? That's not being factored into the equation. Please cite a reference as this is really intriguing. To get back on point, I really feel that a third and a fifth would be a hefty ransom to pay for Percy Harvin, especially since we don't even have the QB talent to utlize him properly. If you think Santonio is pissed now, wait until we get another receiver of equal caliber on the team, and watch his targets get cut down even further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 To get back on point, I really feel that a third and a fifth would be a hefty ransom to pay for Percy Harvin, especially since we don't even have the QB talent to utlize him properly. Fair enough. I tend to agree. Yes, you discount the pick because you are getting use of a player for a full season before the pick is even used. It's like taking a loan. Now, suppose it's for a 5th and the cap hit isn't prohibitive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Fair enough. I tend to agree. Yes, you discount the pick because you are getting use of a player for a full season before the pick is even used. It's like taking a loan. Now, suppose it's for a 5th and the cap hit isn't prohibitive? I'd still rather wait and build in the draft. I also don't know what the contract situation looks like, but the rumors right now say two picks. We've seen one quarter with our starters and there already are whispers about a big name wide receiver, who, as talented as he is, is still a wide receiver. I mean Stephen Hill dropped one pass. I'll admit, it gave me shivers of Brad Smith. Still, guys need time to mesh, and as bad as Jets drafting is, historically they have actually drafted some great wide receivers- Toon, Keyshawn, Chrebet (undrafted), just to name a few. This isn't a hard position to fill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GREENBEAN Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 This is a fan wishlist, not reality. While it would be great for the Jets to get Santonio's guaranteed contract off the books, what's the advantage for the Vikings? If they don't want to pay Harvin, why would they want to pay Santonio more? Headaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason423 Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 And secondly, where have you seen the value of future draft picks discounted, and what's the logic behind it? Is it because you're getting today's production for tomorrow's payment? What about the cash premium being paid today and in future seasons to a proven player that Slats pointed out, versus the CBA ceiling due to a draft pick? That's not being factored into the equation. Please cite a reference as this is really intriguing. Im not sure if that has been published as an article, but I know its generally talked about when former GMs do interviews. The reasoning has always been because you dont know where the draft pick will be and you dont know the depth of talent in the next draft (i.e. picking number one in a year when Keyshawn Johnson is the best player versus Peyton Manning or the 2006 draft which was pretty weak up top). That was also a time when rookies got paid big bucks though. Im not sure how it holds up today. I think with the new wage scale there is a bigger premium than ever on draft choices. I think the real argument on draft vs free agency is window of opportunity. If you build through the draft you can basically get a decade of above average teams because you get that mix of low cost rookie talent that allows you to decide who to actually keep on your roster when their rookies deals expire. You also have leeway to add some veterans to the mix. This is why Philly and Pittsburgh are usually good for so long. You can build via free agency but the window isnt there since the guys cost so much money and the long term prospects are minimal. If it becomes difficult to integrate all the parts they may be on the downside before things click. To me thats what happened to the Jets last season. Too many different parts from different systems and it blew up. When you go the free agency/trade route you cant miss on the few draft picks you have. The 2009 and 2010 team had building blocks on rookie deals which is why it worked out so nicely, but the drafts beyond 2007 so mediocre that they could no longer supplement the rising costs and downside play of those veterans that helped make 2009 and 2010 a success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranick10 Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Nnamdi's a Jet! This. So much this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Im not sure if that has been published as an article, but I know its generally talked about when former GMs do interviews. The reasoning has always been because you dont know where the draft pick will be and you dont know the depth of talent in the next draft (i.e. picking number one in a year when Keyshawn Johnson is the best player versus Peyton Manning or the 2006 draft which was pretty weak up top). That was also a time when rookies got paid big bucks though. Im not sure how it holds up today. I think with the new wage scale there is a bigger premium than ever on draft choices. I think the real argument on draft vs free agency is window of opportunity. If you build through the draft you can basically get a decade of above average teams because you get that mix of low cost rookie talent that allows you to decide who to actually keep on your roster when their rookies deals expire. You also have leeway to add some veterans to the mix. This is why Philly and Pittsburgh are usually good for so long. You can build via free agency but the window isnt there since the guys cost so much money and the long term prospects are minimal. If it becomes difficult to integrate all the parts they may be on the downside before things click. To me thats what happened to the Jets last season. Too many different parts from different systems and it blew up. When you go the free agency/trade route you cant miss on the few draft picks you have. The 2009 and 2010 team had building blocks on rookie deals which is why it worked out so nicely, but the drafts beyond 2007 so mediocre that they could no longer supplement the rising costs and downside play of those veterans that helped make 2009 and 2010 a success. Nice post. I agree that the situation is going to continue to get worse until we stack our team with viable long term talent that can grow together a la Pittsburgh. Trading away picks every year is such a tough strategy to make work. Teams are just too big, everything has to work just right. It's probably impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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