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Fallacy Of The Good Veteran QB in Free Agency


win4ever

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Viewing a bunch of threads across numerous Jets sites today, a lot of people were advocating for a veteran QB to take over the team, but every team needs QBs, so they rarely hit the streets.  Vick, by most measures was the best QB available in free agency this year, and we see where that has led us, so it's not like there are good ones just waiting in the wings to be plucked.  The only ones that become available are major risks (when Brees had major issues) or take a boatload of picks to trade for (Cutler, Palmer).   Our choices in free agency next year are these studs (Carson Palmer possibly, Jake Locker likely, Christian Ponder definitely, and possibly Hoyer).  Not exactly anyone that is going to lead us to the playoffs by themselves.  

 

Our best bet is to just scout the draft and hope we land someone good, because I really don't believe there is a veteran QB coming down the pike to take us to the promised land next year.  Hopefully, we can scout Mariotta, Winston, Cook, and others.    

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Vick was a bad signing. Geno is a second round pick that flopped. It's just time to move on that's all. With the rookie wage scale, they should just draft qbs every year until they hit on one honestly.

Not the worst argument.. But to get a top tier qb you really need to strike gold. Was any guy taken in the last few years aside from luck a real qb?

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This is no place for a young QB. They will get eaten up and chewed out.

 

Nothing wrong with bringing in a vet QB. Look at what the Bills have with Orton.

 

If we are being really honest, isn't that Bills team stacked at pretty much everywhere except QB?   

 

They had the RBs until this week, they have a clear No. 1 WR now, decent No. 2 and possible No. 3, a good offensive line, a nasty DL line, good LBs especially when you consider Alonso will be back next year, and a good secondary.  Besides QB, they really don't have much of a weakness IMO.  Maybe safety, and they can shore up the Oline, but that's a team that is a good QB away from being a real contender IMO.  

 

I don't think Orton would do anything with us, nor would any of the real options out there for us to get.  We have major holes at CB, some holes at Oline, WRs I'm not sure yet with Harvin onboard now, and a major hole at QB.   I think the Bills are much better set up than we are at things except for QB.  Now this could change a good amount if we spend money and actually acquire some talent, but I still don't think the options of a savior is out there for us next year besides the draft.  

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Vick was a bad signing. Geno is a second round pick that flopped. It's just time to move on that's all. With the rookie wage scale, they should just draft qbs every year until they hit on one honestly.

 

I think they need to go QB next year.  I was in the camp of building weapons around Geno, but things are going to get out of hand with Geno now.  The media is going to bury him, and fans are going to piss on his grave, so we need to move on.  

 

I think before anything, we need to get someone that has an offensive system in place, a fast pace system that reduces the number of reads for the QB.  We're not going to get a Luck or Manning type that can shred defenses from line adjustments, so we need a system that helps to move faster, and get the defenses in base settings.  With our slow pace, we almost always allow defenses to be fresh because they can substitute at will.

 

I don't think it's going to be just a 1 for 1 move, where we swap out a QB, and get instantly better unless we get lucky with a stud.  I think we have to change our offensive system and then change our QB.  

 

Not the worst argument.. But to get a top tier qb you really need to strike gold. Was any guy taken in the last few years aside from luck a real qb?

 

I think Wilson is pretty good, Kapernick has been decent too, but both of them had the benefit of going to loaded teams.  Otherwise, I don't think there has been a savior QB besides him.  RGIII had a shot but the injury ruined him it seems.  

 

I follow a few podcasts on the draft, and I think it's draft countdown that had one of it's guys said that Winston on the field has a grade that is almost as good as Luck's when he was coming out, but the off the field stuff is killing his value.  That if he had just stayed clean off the field, he would've most likely been a lock to be the No. 1 pick.  It'll be interesting how the offseason goes for Winston. 

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Not the worst argument.. But to get a top tier qb you really need to strike gold. Was any guy taken in the last few years aside from luck a real qb?

Kapaernick and Wilson and Dalton and Foles were all outside the first round. Foles is still up in the air and plays in the ideal offense but still. Cam Newton was first overall. Etc.

Takes luck and a good coaching staff, neither are things we possess. We don't invest enough into the offense via the draft.

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they backed up a turnover prone young guy with a turnover prone old guy who gets hurt.   oops.  they haven't had a good back up in ages.

 

you can get lightning in a bottle, but it will only get you to the middle of the pack ( foles, davis, hoyer) 

 

you kinda have to have the #1 pick the year a stud comes out, or a top 10 pick the year of a historic QB class like the eli/ben/rivers class

 

the jets look to have a high pick the year of an average or so-so class

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Viewing a bunch of threads across numerous Jets sites today, a lot of people were advocating for a veteran QB to take over the team, but every team needs QBs, so they rarely hit the streets.  Vick, by most measures was the best QB available in free agency this year, and we see where that has led us, so it's not like there are good ones just waiting in the wings to be plucked.  The only ones that become available are major risks (when Brees had major issues) or take a boatload of picks to trade for (Cutler, Palmer).   Our choices in free agency next year are these studs (Carson Palmer possibly, Jake Locker likely, Christian Ponder definitely, and possibly Hoyer).  Not exactly anyone that is going to lead us to the playoffs by themselves.  

 

Our best bet is to just scout the draft and hope we land someone good, because I really don't believe there is a veteran QB coming down the pike to take us to the promised land next year.  Hopefully, we can scout Mariotta, Winston, Cook, and others.

Couldn't agree more

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I think they need to go QB next year.  I was in the camp of building weapons around Geno, but things are going to get out of hand with Geno now.  The media is going to bury him, and fans are going to piss on his grave, so we need to move on.  

 

I think before anything, we need to get someone that has an offensive system in place, a fast pace system that reduces the number of reads for the QB.  We're not going to get a Luck or Manning type that can shred defenses from line adjustments, so we need a system that helps to move faster, and get the defenses in base settings.  With our slow pace, we almost always allow defenses to be fresh because they can substitute at will.

 

I don't think it's going to be just a 1 for 1 move, where we swap out a QB, and get instantly better unless we get lucky with a stud.  I think we have to change our offensive system and then change our QB.  

 

 

I think Wilson is pretty good, Kapernick has been decent too, but both of them had the benefit of going to loaded teams.  Otherwise, I don't think there has been a savior QB besides him.  RGIII had a shot but the injury ruined him it seems.  

 

I follow a few podcasts on the draft, and I think it's draft countdown that had one of it's guys said that Winston on the field has a grade that is almost as good as Luck's when he was coming out, but the off the field stuff is killing his value.  That if he had just stayed clean off the field, he would've most likely been a lock to be the No. 1 pick.  It'll be interesting how the offseason goes for Winston. 

 

The only way you can contemplate drafting a QB is if:

 

1. you have a coach that actually wants him and has an idea of how to use him. The coach and the QB are practically joined at the hip; look at the successful QBs in the league right now - they all have had years of continuity with the same coach, the same offensive weapons and know the offense like the back of their hand. Developing a good QB is a long process and it needs to be overseen by a competent coaching staff.

 

2. you have a decent team that can win games. I can't emphasize this enough - QBs NEVER SUCCEED IN LOSING ENVIRONMENTS. It doesn't matter how highly rated they were, how talented they were, nothing will kill a QB's confidence quicker than a series of losses. A QB is meant to carry the franchise; he is the guy that takes the heat even if he doesn't deserve it. The buck stops with him. That's a ton of pressure to deal with. Winning makes things easier; losing (and losing BADLY, like the Jets frequently do) will crush any kid's confidence. And once it's beaten out of you, it's gone forever. Playing in the Jets is basically a baptism of fire.

 

Wilson and Kaepernick were successful because they were in a winning environment with coaches that KNEW HOW TO USE THEM. Wilson was on training wheels for the first 6 weeks of the 2012 season, Kaep sat out a year and was eased into the job. Compare that situation with RG3 - a seriously talented QB that fell apart because his coach lost confidence in him and his team started losing. Its TOO MUCH for a young QB to deal with. They are back to square one with this guy, and you're talking about one of the best QB prospects in recent history.

 

This is why it makes sense to use a veteran; sure, they might cost a bit more than a rookie QB but the stability they provide will make up for it. A veteran is less likely to be fazed by a losing environment, he has seen it all before and already knows his strengths and weaknesses. You can't really teach poise in the NFL, you either have it or you don't.

 

I don't think the Jets have a right environment for a young QB. It's a losing environment, too much turmoil. The circumstances wouldn't allow a young QB to succeed here, it's like throwing a kid that can't swim straight into the deep end. Let some veteran take the heat, let the [new] coaches figure out what we are and how we should play. The team needs a direction; a distinct style of football on offense and defense. The QB is the least of our worries right now and a change at QB would be like putting a band-aid on a broken lg.

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Kapaernick and Wilson and Dalton and Foles were all outside the first round. Foles is still up in the air and plays in the ideal offense but still. Cam Newton was first overall. Etc.

Takes luck and a good coaching staff, neither are things we possess. We don't invest enough into the offense via the draft.

 

I didn't mind the Geno pick, I liked it when it happened, because the talent was worth the risk.  Similar to how, the Raiders picking Carr was a wise choice, because at one point or another, both were considered top 10 picks, so the guy sliding down at such an important position is worth the risk.   But he hasn't developed much at all since he's been here, and I think a lot of it falls on the coaching staff.  

 

On offense, can we really name ANYONE that has been better than we thought they would be?  Kerley was projected as a safe WR with limitations, and that's exactly what he is.  Hill, we know.  Schilens?  Gates?  Our best case scenarios are when they reach the floor of their potential.   

 

they backed up a turnover prone young guy with a turnover prone old guy who gets hurt.   oops.  they haven't had a good back up in ages.

 

you can get lightning in a bottle, but it will only get you to the middle of the pack ( foles, davis, hoyer) 

 

you kinda have to have the #1 pick the year a stud comes out, or a top 10 pick the year of a historic QB class like the eli/ben/rivers class

 

the jets look to have a high pick the year of an average or so-so class

 

I don't think being middle of the pack really helps us though.  Davis has been decent, but that Rams team is stacked on defense and if they had an iota of offense would be dominant.  Foles is better than middle of the pack, and that system is very QB friendly.  Which is why, I keep asking, why can't we have a QB friendly system?  All I keep hearing is that the systems in college are too QB friendly, can't evaluate them based on it.  Why can't we borrow some of these techniques?  The Bears, Chargers, Eagles all installed systems that were more QB friendly and saw their offenses soar, yet here we are trying to belt out the old WCO to surprise people.  I think during the game, one of the announcers was talking about how I think Vick missed a throw to Amaro, saying that "I know this play, it's designed to get Amaro open out across the field, what is Vick looking at".  If the damn announcers know what the point of the play is and is questioning it as it happens, then defenses know it like the back of their hands, and yet we refuse to change.  

 

The Jets will not draft a QB unless Winston or Mariota. But Winston would be a disaster in NY and Mariota would refuse to play for us. He's a small town kid and probably prefers Tampa Bay. Locker is probably the best we can do sadly.

 

Locker is bad.  I live in TN, so I get to watch a bunch of Titans games, and he's about as erratic as they come.  He's very much like CJ2K, in that he'll make (or atleast in CJ's case, used to make) two or three throws or runs a game that will make you go "Damn, I think this guy has real potential, possible stud".  And then he'll follow that up with a horrible INT, missed passes, miss reads, and overthrows.   As a backup, sure, but he's not going to improve our team much at all, because he's just not that accurate.  He was breaking out last year when we injured him, but this season he wasn't the same at all.  

 

The value of a capable veteran QB is that he can help stabilize a franchise while you search for your franchise guy.  People want to play and coach in Kansas City with Alex Smith, even if he's not the type that can win you a championship.  

 

Alex Smith cost like two high draft picks I believe, and that team was loaded, and right now they are a middle of the pack team.  They had insane defensive talent, like 5 or 6 Pro Bowlers, a great RB, very good Oline, and ok WRs, albeit not great ones since Bowe declined a bit.  That was like our 2009 team basically, you could put anyone out there and look decent.  Smith is better than decent, so it looks more polished, but he didn't save that team.   What I'm saying is that, there isn't that guy that hits free agency that we can all go like "There, that's the guy we need" unless there is major injury risks, or developmental risks with him. 

 

TRADE TRADE TRADE

CUTLER PALMER ORTON ALL NAMES WE PASSED ON RECENTLY. ALL OF WHICH AN IMPROVEMENT

EDIT CAPS LOCK ON PHONE

 

I wouldn't want any of these guys.  Cutler has a trio of weapons we can't even dream of and has been mediocre.  Palmer is too old, and Orton is horrible, but has a stud team around him.  

 

If by some stroke of luck Hoyer hits free agency and Idzik doesn't even bother, I am going to be very angry with him. And I'm going to write him a letter, telling him how angry I am with him.

 

I'm not really sold on Hoyer either.  For him to be a free agent, he would have to be bad in the first place and get replaced by Manziel.  And that would mean his play from here onwards is horrible.  I watched a bit of their games for fantasy purposes, and he seems to just chuck the ball deep a lot, finishes like 8/20 with 240 yards.  Part of it can be the surrounding cast sucks as well, but he's really not pushing them over the edge.  The defense is better with Pettine there now.

 

I don't trust anyone in this organization to develop anyone, nonetheless a damned QB.

I think Jake Locker could be solid if he wasn't hurt all the time. Hoyer is like a last girl at the bar and you're hammered kind of guy. Ponder is the slam pig you leave there.

 

Locker seems more like a tease, Hoyer is just repeating the cycle of "I hope our defense can save us from our QB gameplan", and Ponder is all but useless.  

 

The only way you can contemplate drafting a QB is if:

 

1. you have a coach that actually wants him and has an idea of how to use him. The coach and the QB are practically joined at the hip; look at the successful QBs in the league right now - they all have had years of continuity with the same coach, the same offensive weapons and know the offense like the back of their hand. Developing a good QB is a long process and it needs to be overseen by a competent coaching staff.

 

2. you have a decent team that can win games. I can't emphasize this enough - QBs NEVER SUCCEED IN LOSING ENVIRONMENTS. It doesn't matter how highly rated they were, how talented they were, nothing will kill a QB's confidence quicker than a series of losses. A QB is meant to carry the franchise; he is the guy that takes the heat even if he doesn't deserve it. The buck stops with him. That's a ton of pressure to deal with. Winning makes things easier; losing (and losing BADLY, like the Jets frequently do) will crush any kid's confidence. And once it's beaten out of you, it's gone forever. Playing in the Jets is basically a baptism of fire.

 

Wilson and Kaepernick were successful because they were in a winning environment with coaches that KNEW HOW TO USE THEM. Wilson was on training wheels for the first 6 weeks of the 2012 season, Kaep sat out a year and was eased into the job. Compare that situation with RG3 - a seriously talented QB that fell apart because his coach lost confidence in him and his team started losing. Its TOO MUCH for a young QB to deal with. They are back to square one with this guy, and you're talking about one of the best QB prospects in recent history.

 

This is why it makes sense to use a veteran; sure, they might cost a bit more than a rookie QB but the stability they provide will make up for it. A veteran is less likely to be fazed by a losing environment, he has seen it all before and already knows his strengths and weaknesses. You can't really teach poise in the NFL, you either have it or you don't.

 

I don't think the Jets have a right environment for a young QB. It's a losing environment, too much turmoil. The circumstances wouldn't allow a young QB to succeed here, it's like throwing a kid that can't swim straight into the deep end. Let some veteran take the heat, let the [new] coaches figure out what we are and how we should play. The team needs a direction; a distinct style of football on offense and defense. The QB is the least of our worries right now and a change at QB would be like putting a band-aid on a broken lg.

 

On your points:

 

1)  I agree, the QB, the coach, and whatever system they use need to be on the same page.  If we draft an Air Raid QB, teach him a pass happy WCO, and then employ a run first offense, there are bound to be problems.  Infact, I hope we can get an offensive minded coach, that can run the hurry up offense as the next head coach.  It's the only way to defeat exotic looks from defenses that can confuse the QB.  Why can't we copy the Eagles?  They rush up to the line, and if they see something they like, they got with it, and if not, they all look to the sideline to get the play call via signs.  Why can't we do that?  We let the defense rest, substitute, and get them in ideal positions before running a play.  If we're going to help out the QB, atleast make it easier.  Even for our "vaunted" defense, we're horrible when it comes to two minute drives because we can't take time to set up exotic blitzes, and are forced to play vanilla coverage. 

 

2)  This one, I'm not sure I agree completely.  While I agree that it's ideal for a team to have a winning environment, I don't think it's easy for teams to build a good team and then bring in a young QB.  The Colts were horrible the year before Luck.  The Seahawks were like 7-9 the year before Wilson and put their eggs in the Matt Flynn basket.  The 49ers situation was idea for Kapernick, I agree with that, same goes with Aaron Rodgers when he took over.  But other guys like Matt Ryan, or Stafford weren't in ideal situations.   

 

To me, developing a good team involves the QB.  The most standard procedure would be to pick a QB, surround the guy with talent that matches his ability, and then hope they develop.  This is why investing in a high draft pick for a WR is important in my eyes, because I want to make sure the talent isn't the issue if they are failing.  

 

3)  I agree that the offense needs a distinct identity.  And it shouldn't be run and punt offense we run now.  We need a system that gives easy reads, fast paced to give vanilla coverage, and the ability to run if it's not there.  The sad thing is that Geno is actually equipped to run this offense from his days in the Air Raid, but we refuse to do it.  His biggest problem seems to be progression of reads, and getting confused with exotic blitzes and coverage.  A fast paced system can reduce that, and if the defense is back, he can run.  But we refuse to do it.  

 

Geno is confirmed to suck, ditto Vick, so why aren't we starting Simms for nothing more than to at least watch a new QB lose our games for us? Seems like a no brainer.  

 

Mainly because Simms was worse than these guys in training camp and preseason, and also because no other team even cared for him enough to try and put him on a roster, so they don't see anything in him either.  

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I wouldn't want any of these guys.  Cutler has a trio of weapons we can't even dream of and has been mediocre.  Palmer is too old, and Orton is horrible, but has a stud team around him.  

 

 

the perfect is the enemy of the good. jets fans so hung up on finding the next messiah while we have passed over dozens of serviceable guys that crush anything we've had for over a decade. we can give up on the dream of finding the next tom brady in round 6. just get someone serviceable to make the torture of searching for "the qb of the future" tolerable at least.

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the perfect is the enemy of the good. jets fans so hung up on finding the next messiah while we have passed over dozens of serviceable guys that crush anything we've had for over a decade. we can give up on the dream of finding the next tom brady in round 6. just get someone serviceable to make the torture of searching for "the qb of the future" tolerable at least.

 

Yeah, but what's the point of being merely average all these years?  I think an example would be the Dolphins, kept cycling guys over the years to finish with 7-9 wins every year with no hope of a championship.  I don't think fans are in dire need to just make the playoffs, I think they want someone that gives us the potential to be perennial contenders, and have a shot at the SB.  Like what's the best case scenario for the Browns with Hoyer?  Get in the playoffs, win a round?  We were there what three years ago, but it still feels like a failure.  I think everyone would love to have a serviceable QB while waiting for a stud to come along, but it also means putting money into a QB that may not be here long term without much upside either, and that takes away from the other aspects of the team that could've been improved with that money. 

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Viewing a bunch of threads across numerous Jets sites today, a lot of people were advocating for a veteran QB to take over the team, but every team needs QBs, so they rarely hit the streets.  Vick, by most measures was the best QB available in free agency this year, and we see where that has led us, so it's not like there are good ones just waiting in the wings to be plucked.  The only ones that become available are major risks (when Brees had major issues) or take a boatload of picks to trade for (Cutler, Palmer).   Our choices in free agency next year are these studs (Carson Palmer possibly, Jake Locker likely, Christian Ponder definitely, and possibly Hoyer).  Not exactly anyone that is going to lead us to the playoffs by themselves.  

 

Our best bet is to just scout the draft and hope we land someone good, because I really don't believe there is a veteran QB coming down the pike to take us to the promised land next year.  Hopefully, we can scout Mariotta, Winston, Cook, and others.    

I somewhat agree. It is one thing to pick up a guy in free agency, but another to trade for a guy and there is one QB that I feel the Jets should attempt to get in here. I will be making a thread about it later today. 

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Yeah, but what's the point of being merely average all these years?  I think an example would be the Dolphins, kept cycling guys over the years to finish with 7-9 wins every year with no hope of a championship.  I don't think fans are in dire need to just make the playoffs, I think they want someone that gives us the potential to be perennial contenders, and have a shot at the SB.  Like what's the best case scenario for the Browns with Hoyer?  Get in the playoffs, win a round?  We were there what three years ago, but it still feels like a failure.  I think everyone would love to have a serviceable QB while waiting for a stud to come along, but it also means putting money into a QB that may not be here long term without much upside either, and that takes away from the other aspects of the team that could've been improved with that money. 

 

2 most successful QBs in last 20 years--vinny and favre. not homegrown talent, but mercenaries brought in to do a job. vinny got us to AFC champs and favre certainly would've had us in playoffs and maybe deep in if he didn't tear his old ass arm off. my point is, both vinny and favre were thought of as turnover machines/busts (vinny) or old as dirt and lacking the passion for the game anymore (favre). no one thought of them as "QB OF THE FUTURE" Types.

 

and yeah a 8-8 or 9-7 team that squeaks into playoffs or barely misses is a million times better than this season's shipwreck. not to mention, you get a serviceable vet in here, the skill positions can develop until the ever-elusive "QB of the future" is found. you think any of our young players are learning a damn thing from geno? except to set their watch on road games?

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Alex Smith cost like two high draft picks I believe, and that team was loaded, and right now they are a middle of the pack team.  They had insane defensive talent, like 5 or 6 Pro Bowlers, a great RB, very good Oline, and ok WRs, albeit not great ones since Bowe declined a bit.  That was like our 2009 team basically, you could put anyone out there and look decent.  Smith is better than decent, so it looks more polished, but he didn't save that team.   What I'm saying is that, there isn't that guy that hits free agency that we can all go like "There, that's the guy we need" unless there is major injury risks, or developmental risks with him. 

 

 

The Chiefs have never been able to develop a QB of their own, much like us.  I'm not saying I'd give up 2 high draft picks for an Alex Smith, but as long as you don't quit trying to find QB's via the draft, there's nothing wrong with overpaying a little for a guy LIKE that when the opportunity arises.

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The Chiefs have never been able to develop a QB of their own, much like us.  I'm not saying I'd give up 2 high draft picks for an Alex Smith, but as long as you don't quit trying to find QB's via the draft, there's nothing wrong with overpaying a little for a guy LIKE that when the opportunity arises.

 

thank you. thank you. thank you.

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Yeah, but what's the point of being merely average all these years?  I think an example would be the Dolphins, kept cycling guys over the years to finish with 7-9 wins every year with no hope of a championship.  I don't think fans are in dire need to just make the playoffs, I think they want someone that gives us the potential to be perennial contenders, and have a shot at the SB.  Like what's the best case scenario for the Browns with Hoyer?  Get in the playoffs, win a round?  We were there what three years ago, but it still feels like a failure.  I think everyone would love to have a serviceable QB while waiting for a stud to come along, but it also means putting money into a QB that may not be here long term without much upside either, and that takes away from the other aspects of the team that could've been improved with that money. 

 

The alternative for the Browns would have been to throw Manziel right in there, which would have been a mistake IMO.  A veteran allows you to bridge the gap for your young QB.  

 

And yes, while I don't think average is good enough, it's a starting point.  I think Browns fans are more than OK with "average" right now, given their history....

 

 

ScreenShot2013-10-23at1.12.30PM_original

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The value of a capable veteran QB is that he can help stabilize a franchise while you search for your franchise guy.  People want to play and coach in Kansas City with Alex Smith, even if he's not the type that can win you a championship.  

the Giants drafted Eli and made him sit behind a vet

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the Giants drafted Eli and made him sit behind a vet

 

In NYC I think that's especially important.  Sanchez and Geno didn't have the ability AND they couldn't handle the NYC media.  Once we finally get a special talent at the QB position it is crucial we don't throw him to the wolves Week 1.

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I was never certain about Locker. But UW has a record of producing NFL QBS. Sarkisian 's signal collars are terrible. Oregon's have been worse. Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, AJ Feely, Kellen Clemens. Shall I go on? This will all work against Mariota on draft day.

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