Devin Smith

[Integrity28]

if you connect on those 2-3 35+ yarders, it's a huge part of the offense. 

If you connect on 60+% of the other passes, it's a bigger part of the offense.

Having the deep pass as a regular part of the offense is a "nice to have" and "no duh" it would be great. You guys are wayyyyyy over-stating its overall value relative to the rest of what we're doing on offense, and seem delusional about the frequency with which these plays are attempted and successful.

Here... look at this:

Deep Passing (QB)

Using our target location data, we’ve selected passing attempts that traveled 20 yards or more in the air. From that sample we offer a look at typical passing numbers as well as Attempt Percentage (number of deep passes relative to all attempts) and show the QB’s Accuracy Percentage on such throws. Whether you are looking to see who is going deep most often or who has been most successful at it, we’ve got the numbers here.

Example: In 2009, Drew Brees finished with the 10th-most Deep Pass attempts (63; Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning tied with 73 at the top), but his 1206 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 58.7 Accuracy Percentage on deep passes all led the league.

Sample article: Three Years of Deep Passing

Past Deep Passing leaders (by Deep Accuracy Percentage):
2007: Tom Brady (NE) 50.7% on 73 attempts
2008: Kurt Warner (ARZ) 58.7% on 46 attempts
2009: Drew Brees (NO) 58.7% on 63 attempts
2010: Vince Young (TEN) 54.3% on 35 attempts
2011: Aaron Rodgers (GB) 60.7% on 61 attempts
2012: Colin Kaepernick (SF) 60.6% on 33 attempts
2013: Case Keenum (HOU) 53.1% on 32 attempts

In 2011, Aaron Rodgers was one of the best deep ball QBs in an offense that "relies on the deep ball". They are defining deep ball by 20+ yards, while we discuss 35+ yarders. He only made 61 attempts, and Rodgers who is arguably the BEST QB on that list only completed 60% of them. 

That is 3.8, or 4 passes of 20+ yards per game, and only a 60% completion rate... Meaning he barely completed 2 of them a game... a QB that is monumentally better than Fitz.

But you expect Fitz to hit Devin Smith in stride 35+ yards out 3-4 times a game.

This is no longer about defending Fitz, or trying to have a conversation about Devin Smith and what he could improve at... this is about being realistic.

If statisticians are defining "deep balls" as 20 yarders, then maybe we should as well. Fitz can throw those, not always perfect, but enough to keep defenses honest.

[fastmover]

None of this matters. You said arm strength cannot be changed - and that is not true. Brady's arm has gotten stronger later in his career. It's fairly common knowledge that when an athlete misses half a year, most of camp, while recovering from a lower body injury - and a lot of "arm strength" is actually driven by lower body mechanics, that said athlete can probably improve "arm strength" by regaining and improving the lower body strength and mechanics.

Yea, you pretty much did infer that deep ball is what Devin is here fore. 1-2 times a game? Do you realize that Big Ben barely connects with Antonio Brown on 40+ yarders 1-2 times a game, and they may be the most prolific, high volume pair in the league right now.... and you expect that from our journeyman QB and a rookie WR? 

I don't need to check your join date. I'm saying, if you've been posting about football that long... you should know better.

You're wrong.

Just because he could get back on the field doesn't mean he's regain full conditioning and strength. 

 

bullsh*t..... It doesn't take 6 months to regain lower body strength from a simple fracture in the leg, I broke my leg in 3 places and was back to full strength and capability within 3 months of cast removal, my job in the Marine Corps was far more physically strenuous then a Qb in the NFL.  Fitz will never gain the imaginary strength you think he can in order to throw a better deep ball, he's never had good velocity on his deep throws, best we can hope for is better accuracy that's it. 

So once again Fitz and Devin will never be a deep duo, and by seasons end it won't be because of Devin.. Also Rodgers is the deep ball Qb of the NFL, Ben, not so much anymore. 

Btw your the one who brings up the Fitz talk by your backhanded comments regarding this topic towards people who don't share your opinion of Fitz, and that's what you did when you entered this topic, and here we are..... Fitz is a Jag and is a poor fit for our current offense. Put box o rocks in and watch Devin catch those deep passes that are in front of him, you'll take those points just as well. 

[Integrity28]

Here is another nice piece about Fitz from 2014

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick (Houston Texans, now with the New York Jets)

If you’re expecting me to rip apart a journeyman quarterback like Ryan Fitzpatrick, think again. Fitzpatrick was a pleasant surprise to watch when it came to the downfield pass, and while he looks like a hobo that lives in the urban side of town, His throws (for the most part) were beauty.

Don’t get the wrong idea, there are some terrible passes in Fitz’s film, but also some sensational ones. A monster when he was on point, you’d think that by the film Fitzpatrick was an elite QB.

Some things are too good to be true, but there was a lot to like from Ryan Fitzpatrick on the deep ball in 2014.

Grade: B+

Best Deep Ball Throw: Week 13 vs. TEN, 0:47 2Q: The greatest game of his career also featured Fitzpatrick’s finest deep ball throw of 2014, a 58-yard dime to DeAndre Hopkins for a 58-yard touchdown.

Here is the link if you want to understand the evaluation criteria: https://brickwallblitz.wordpress.com/2015/04/29/the-best-deep-ball-quarterback-of-2014-13/ 

[fastmover]

 

If you connect on 60+% of the other passes, it's a bigger part of the offense.

Having the deep pass as a regular part of the offense is a "nice to have" and "no duh" it would be great. You guys are wayyyyyy over-stating its overall value relative to the rest of what we're doing on offense, and seem delusional about the frequency with which these plays are attempted and successful.

Here... look at this:

In 2011, Aaron Rodgers was one of the best deep ball QBs in an offense that "relies on the deep ball". They are defining deep ball by 20+ yards, while we discuss 35+ yarders. He only made 61 attempts, and Rodgers who is arguably the BEST QB on that list only completed 60% of them. 

That is 3.8, or 4 passes of 20+ yards per game, and only a 60% completion rate... Meaning he barely completed 2 of them a game... a QB that is monumentally better than Fitz.

But you expect Fitz to hit Devin Smith in stride 35+ yards out 3-4 times a game.

This is no longer about defending Fitz, or trying to have a conversation about Devin Smith and what he could improve at... this is about being realistic.

If statisticians are defining "deep balls" as 20 yarders, then maybe we should as well. Fitz can throw those, not always perfect, but enough to keep defenses honest.

isn't that the whole purpose of a speedy receiver? To be able to take the top off the defense, that's what he was drafted to be, and this thread is about Devin, so of course the main talking point will be the deep ball, duh.... We have plenty of people to play intermediate routes and dump offs, Devin is needed for the top of the defense.  I've been consistent on topic, you have been going all over the place trying to make things fit your viewpoint and defending Fitz's honor. 

Its not that complicated when discussing a deep threat receiver, and that discussion clearly shows that Fitz cannot take advantage of Devins strengths. There's no sense in describing the painfully obvious away. 

[Integrity28]

bullsh*t..... It doesn't take 6 months to regain lower body strength from a simple fracture in the leg, I broke my leg in 3 places and was back to full strength and capability within 3 months of cast removal, my job in the Marine Corps was far more physically strenuous then a Qb in the NFL.  Fitz will never gain the imaginary strength you think he can in order to throw a better deep ball, he's never had good velocity on his deep throws, best we can hope for is better accuracy that's it. 

So once again Fitz and Devin will never be a deep duo, and by seasons end it won't be because of Devin.. Also Rodgers is the deep ball Qb of the NFL, Ben, not so much anymore. 

Btw your the one who brings up the Fitz talk by your backhanded comments regarding this topic towards people who don't share your opinion of Fitz, and that's what you did when you entered this topic, and here we are..... Fitz is a Jag and is a poor fit for our current offense. Put box o rocks in and watch Devin catch those deep passes that are in front of him, you'll take those points just as well. 

Mechanics. I've been talking about mechanics... that is what drives the perception of "arm strength". You don't just rip off the cast and have perfect mechanics. Without a full camp, without starters reps the entire pre-season... it just doesn't happen, so there is room for him to iron out his kinks. It's far more plausible that he irons out his kinks than it is that he's going to connect on four 40-yarders per game, even if he was the love-child of Dan Marino and Brett Favre.

I've already provided you stats about Rodgers. I don't need a "btw" to point it out. I chose Ben and Antonio Brown because they are, as I said, the most prolific in volume... volume means they connect a TON. Brown led the league in catches. Therefore making the statement that even with all that volume... ugh... good ******* grief... 

My opinion of Fitz is that he's a middling journeyman. Your entire last paragraph is garbage. I talked about Devin Smith, and the insecure horde of "we don't have deep balls" went bonkers. I've tried page after page to get any of you to respond to my critique on Devin Smith, you guys have made damn sure we don't move past the QB.

The entire point I've illustrated with the stats on the deep ball is that, while it's fun to see, it's NOT as huge a part of ANY offense in the league as you guys are making it out to be fore us.

In other words, I just keep proving every new argument you guys introduce wrong - or at the very least, an exaggerated expectation.

 

[Integrity28]

[fastmover]

Mechanics. I've been talking about mechanics... that is what drives the perception of "arm strength". You don't just rip off the cast and have perfect mechanics. Without a full camp, without starters reps the entire pre-season... it just doesn't happen, so there is room for him to iron out his kinks. It's far more plausible that he irons out his kinks than it is that he's going to connect on four 40-yarders per game, even if he was the love-child of Dan Marino and Brett Favre.

I've already provided you stats about Rodgers. I don't need a "btw" to point it out. I chose Ben and Antonio Brown because they are, as I said, the most prolific in volume... volume means they connect a TON. Brown led the league in catches. Therefore making the statement that even with all that volume... ugh... good ******* grief... 

My opinion of Fitz is that he's a middling journeyman. Your entire last paragraph is garbage. I talked about Devin Smith, and the insecure horde of "we don't have deep balls" went bonkers. I've tried page after page to get any of you to respond to my critique on Devin Smith, you guys have made damn sure we don't move past the QB.

The entire point I've illustrated with the stats on the deep ball is that, while it's fun to see, it's NOT as huge a part of ANY offense in the league as you guys are making it out to be fore us.

In other words, I just keep proving every new argument you guys introduce wrong - or at the very least, an exaggerated expectation.

 

Look , I get your point about volume I.e. Ben & Brown. 

I never said I expect Fitz/smith to connect on all attempts, but one or two would be nice, 

Yes deep attempts are not the main component of our offense, but this is about Devin and I don't see the faults in his play that you do, I see the breakdown to be more on the Qb, then the rook. And the rook is here for the deep game primarily this year, that's his role in this offense, and I want yo see him succeed 

[cant wait]

the fitzpologist angle is strong in this thread

[Smashmouth]

"Arm strength" can in fact be improved. Fact. When you consider that he missed a lot of last year with a broken leg, it's actually pretty reasonable to assume that his lower body strength could absolutely stand to be improved. That said, I'm not talking about him magically being able to throw farther... but more accurately, sure, that can happen. A QB that can anticipate the speed and instincts of his receiver better, is going to achieve better accuracy.

Devin Smith better do more than "may improve". He's played 2 games as a pro, no camp, nothing... and you guys act like he's playing flawless football just to hammer home the "no deep ball" whining. 

At the end of the day, it is up to Gailey to take advantage of what Smith and Fitz do well together. There's more uses for speed than 50+ yard bombs, and to infer otherwise is silly. You should know better if you've really been posting here this long.

exactly.

Combination of the unfamiliarity between Fitz and Smith and the fact Smith looks a little stiff and seems to be playing a bit slow while learning the offense is what this is all about not how far Fitz can throw a football. If Fitz does nothing but throw passes inside of 20 yards and tests teams deep once or twice a game to keep them honest you will have exactly what Manning and Brady do every single year. Ball control offenses are what its all about just because teams pass a lot does not always equate to long passes when Brees threw for 5100 yards 190- of those completions were to his running backs BALL CONTROL .

That being said our offense is going to get its timing down and it will happen over the next few weeks. If our running game continues to click then we will become very hard to stop.

I stated in previous thread's if this team could get past the beginning of the season while learn the new schemes watch out. We ARE going to be a lot better than most people think and now that Sheldon is coming back our defense is going to really apply pressure to any QB's who like to step into the pocket . This defense is built to give the Brady's and Mannings of the world fits.

if this team has any real weaknesses its the check down options. We do not have RB's who can be effective in the passing game and we lack a real TE.

[#27TheDominator]

the fitzpologist angle is strong in this thread

It's catching on!

[JustInFudge]

He's a rookie.  He missed all of camp.  All the stuff he's doing today, will get better.  He'll get more physical and understand where to be better with time.

I wasnt high on Devin Smith. Didnt want him. I wanted Jalen Strong.  Jalen Strong currently has zero receptions and has only been active for 1 game and isnt injured.  And the Houston Texans are leaning on Cecil Shorts instead of their rookie (which may change now that Cecil is injured).  

If you look at who was drafted after Smith, nobody is out playing him (maybe Tyler Lockett or Ty Montgomery but look at their QB's).  Hell, most of the guys drafted in front of him arent out playing him.  So maybe, have patience? 

 

 

Well, hopefully Smith can have a nice breakout game like Jalen Strong did last night...

[jgb]

Well, hopefully Smith can have a nice breakout game like Jalen Strong did last night...

Hopefully not just like that, Strong's team lost!

[JustInFudge]

Hopefully not just like that, Strong's team lost!

Haha - yes, preferably in a winning fashion but both of his TD's got the Texans back in the game and within 3 points.  And the Hail Mary catch was just done beautifully by him using is body to shield defenders and then beat them to the high point.  He didnt exactly have an amazing game or anything but both TD's were clutch for the Texans. 

[jgb]

Haha - yes, preferably in a winning fashion but both of his TD's got the Texans back in the game and within 3 points.  And the Hail Mary catch was just done beautifully by him using is body to shield defenders and then beat them to the high point.  He didnt exactly have an amazing game or anything but both TD's were clutch for the Texans. 

I will probably be excoriated for this but I am hopeful Devin's floor is Kenny Stills and his ceiling is Desean Jackson

[JustInFudge]

I will probably be excoriated for this but I am hopeful Devin's floor is Kenny Stills and his ceiling is Desean Jackson

I think that's pretty fair.  I certainly dont see him becoming a top WR in the league.  As long as he can be a deep threat and take off the top with an occasional game breaker, the Jets should be just fine.  

[Integrity28]

Look , I get your point about volume I.e. Ben & Brown. 

I never said I expect Fitz/smith to connect on all attempts, but one or two would be nice, 

Yes deep attempts are not the main component of our offense, but this is about Devin and I don't see the faults in his play that you do, I see the breakdown to be more on the Qb, then the rook. And the rook is here for the deep game primarily this year, that's his role in this offense, and I want yo see him succeed 

The bold: That's fine, it's your opinion. However, everything that you (and a few others) have brought up as part of the conversation I've disproven as either wrong or a gross exaggeration. 

Stick to your opinion, but at least be open to the idea that a rookie WR in his second game cannot and should not be absolved of his part of accountability. Not every miss between the two is on Fitz, and not every miss is on Devin. That's the point I've been making here, and some of you just cannot accept that it's not 100% on Fitz. You are wrong.

I don't really feel the need to rehash the other points I've made to hammer this home.

Let's just hope to see improvement from both, eh?

[Larz]

lol, yes, but both of them have the ability to pass deep, for christs sake, so they can use a receiver like Devin. SMH....

brady sucks at the deep ball. they just don't do it.  but they score.  its weird, right ?

[Mike135]

brady sucks at the deep ball. they just don't do it.  but they score.  its weird, right ?

I hate the Pats as much as anyone but let's be fair here.  There is something Brady sucks, but it has nothing to do with football.  On the field he's damn good.  Including on deep throws.

[southparkcpa]

I hate the Pats as much as anyone but let's be fair here.  There is something Brady sucks, but it has nothing to do with football.  On the field he's damn good.  Including on deep throws.

agreed. I hate the Pats I hate their fans. I hate the SOX.  But Brady may be the best QB in the last 30 years and he is top 2 or 3 of all time.   

 

fukk him.....

[Larz]

I hate the Pats as much as anyone but let's be fair here.  There is something Brady sucks, but it has nothing to do with football.  On the field he's damn good.  Including on deep throws.

you sir are incorrect.  do the research

[Mike135]

you sir are incorrect.  do the research

Research will only give me stats.  I'll come away thinking Fitz is better with deep throws than Brady.

[Jetman55]

I hate the Pats as much as anyone but let's be fair here.  There is something Brady sucks, but it has nothing to do with football.  On the field he's damn good.  Including on deep throats.

saw the typo.  Fixed it above.

[jgb]

Research will only give me stats.  I'll come away thinking Fitz is better with deep throws than Brady.

Nah just argue that all the results that contradict your opinion should be thrown out for some reason. If you throw away passes to superior talents like Gronk, Randy Moss, Aaron Hernandez and other tall targets like Branden LaFell, Brady sucks at deep ball!

See how easy that is? It's the JetNation way.

[Larz]

Research will only give me stats.  I'll come away thinking Fitz is better with deep throws than Brady.

lol.  the thing is, the past* know he struggles with the deep ball, so they just kill you with a thousand cuts.  

I watched some of a packers game maybe week 3 and they showed a graphic that 50% of rodgers passed went 0-5 yards beyond the LOS.

All I'm saying is this fan base seems pretty obsessed with the deep ball, but the 2 best QB's in the game are happy to dink and dunk you to death, but they are accurate and have playmakers who turn those 5 yard passes into 15 yard gains

The jets would be sitting pretty with a nice 3rd down RB with some wiggle that could do that

[Jetman55]

you sir are incorrect.  do the research

agreed.  Brady has been bottom 3 in connecting on passes that travel more than 9 yards in the air the last 3 season...he and Tannehill are always bottom 3.

[Mike135]

Nah just argue that all the results that contradict your opinion should be thrown out for some reason. If you throw away passes to superior talents like Gronk, Randy Moss, Aaron Hernandez and other tall targets like Branden LaFell, Brady sucks at deep ball!

See how easy that is? It's the JetNation way.

I'll argue Geno vs Fitz cause that means something to me.  Brady, don't really care.  We can just agree to disagree.

[Mike135]

saw the typo.  Fixed it above.

Ha, thanks.  My autocorrect musta changed it on me.  Much better now.

[jgb]

I'll argue Geno vs Fitz cause that means something to me.  Brady, don't really care.  We can just agree to disagree.

Not sure we do disagree

[Mike135]

Not sure we do disagree

Ah, I see.  Sorry, didn't get a chance to read your post well.  Went right over my head.  I was at a stoplight skimming over the thread and replied real fast before it turned green.

[Jetster]

Devin Smith is soft & a bust...just ask anyone on this site, lol, because they have seen him play 6 NFL quarters.

[Jetman55]

Kid is getting open.  I look forward to his first play in the open field.  I do want to see what we've got.  The timing will hopefully get better.  

I think an above reference was Kenny Stills as a floor...he actually reminds me of Terry Glenn.  But Still was a 2nd year player last year and had 63 receptions for 931 yards and 14.8 ypc for 3 TDs.  If we get get that to go with Decker and Marshall, that would be nice...but I also agree that is likely his floor.  I think he can be better than that; but at this point, it's optimism.  We shall see. 

[jgb]

Kid is getting open.  I look forward to his first play in the open field.  I do want to see what we've got.  The timing will hopefully get better.  

I think an above reference was Kenny Stills as a floor...he actually reminds me of Terry Glenn.  But Still was a 2nd year player last year and had 63 receptions for 931 yards and 14.8 ypc for 3 TDs.  If we get get that to go with Decker and Marshall, that would be nice...but I also agree that is likely his floor.  I think he can be better than that; but at this point, it's optimism.  We shall see. 

Yeah also had drew brees throwing to him. Can't remember glenn enough to agree or disagree with that comparison

[Jetman55]

Yeah also had drew brees throwing to him. Can't remember glenn enough to agree or disagree with that comparison

I have a feeling Smith wont have Fitzpatrick throwing to him much past his second year in the league...IF fitzpatrick is even throwing to him his second year...

[jack48]

Not knocking Fitz, legit question.  Does Fitz have the ability to take advantage of Smith's speed?  

Devin has some great highlight videos.  The one constant though is a QB launching the ball.

a guy with Smith's speed should be open for big chunks underneath a lot.  Even with Fitz there, teams have to respect his speed.  If they play tight and he blows by someone  even Fitz can hit him

[jack48]

Research will only give me stats.  I'll come away thinking Fitz is better with deep throws than Brady.

they could both suck equally