Shockwave Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Quote Compensatory Draft Picks Cancellation Chart 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 To add clarity to how the compensatory draft pick formula works, this page will contain a list of all Compensatory Free Agents lost and gained by each team, and illustrate which players are paired together for cancellation. Players that are projected to be eligible to earn their former team a compensatory pick are highlighted in their former team’s colors. Please note that this chart does not include potential “net-value” compensatory picks for teams that lose and gain an equal amount of CFAs, nor does it account for compensatory picks that may not be awarded due to falling below the 32-pick limit or exceeding the maximum of four per team. Also take note that while each player will have his real APY (less workout bonuses & incentives) listed, the cutoff table on the right is represented in adjusted APY (adjustments for playing time). Visit Over The Cap’s draft page to view the full list of projected compensatory picks. Projected APY Cutoffs By Round Round Adjusted APY 3rd/4th $9,000,000 4th/5th $6,500,000 5th/6th $5,100,000 6th/7th $3,400,000 7th/Qual $961,489 Jump to a division: AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC WestNFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West AFC East Buffalo Bills Qualifying UFAs Lost: 2 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 0 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Nigel Bradham 6 $3,500,000 Ron Brooks 7 $1,833,333 Non-Qualifying UFAs Lost Non-Qualifying UFAs Gained Robert Blanton 7 $840,000 New England Patriots Qualifying UFAs Lost: 2 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 1 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Akiem Hicks 6 $5,000,000 Tavon Wilson 7 $1,100,000 Shea McClellin 7 $2,883,333 Non-Qualifying UFAs Lost Non-Qualifying UFAs Gained Frank Kearse 7 $825,000 Miami Dolphins Qualifying UFAs Lost: 4 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 2 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Olivier Vernon 3 $16,980,000 Lamar Miller 5 $6,500,000 Rishard Matthews 6 $5,000,000 Isa Abdul Quddus 6 $4,250,000 Derrick Shelby 6 $4,450,000 Andre Branch 7 $2,750,000 Non-Qualifying UFAs Lost Non-Qualifying UFAs Gained Sam Young 7 $910,000 New York Jets Qualifying UFAs Lost: 3 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 3 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Damon Harrison 4 $9,000,000 Matt Forte 6 $4,000,000 Chris Ivory 5 $6,400,000 Steve McLendon 6 $4,000,000 Demario Davis 6 $3,900,000 Jarvis Jenkins 7 $2,000,000 Non-Qualifying UFAs Lost Non-Qualifying UFAs Gained Antonio Allen 7 $800,000 AFC North Baltimore Ravens Qualifying UFAs Lost: 2 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 2 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Kelechi Osemele 3 $11,200,000 Eric Weddle 5 $6,500,000 Matt Schaub 7 $1,750,000 Ben Watson 6 $3,500,000 Non-Qualifying UFAs Lost Non-Qualifying UFAs Gained Chris Givens 7 $840,000 Cleveland Browns Qualifying UFAs Lost: 6 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 1 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Alex Mack 4 $9,000,000 Tashaun Gipson 4 $7,100,000 Mitchell Schwartz 4 $6,512,000 Travis Benjamin 5 $6,000,000 Johnson Bademosi 7 $2,250,000 Demario Davis 6 $3,900,000 Craig Robertson ? TBA Cincinnati Bengals Qualifying UFAs Lost: 4 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 0 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Marvin Jones 4 $8,000,000 Mohamed Sanu 5 $6,500,000 Andre Smith 6 $3,500,000 Emmanuel Lamur 7 $2,750,000 Pittsburgh Steelers Qualifying UFAs Lost: 5 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 2 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Kelvin Beachum 6 $4,500,000 Ladarius Green 6 $5,000,000 Steve McLendon 6 $4,000,000 Sean Spence 7 $2,500,000 Ryan Harris 7 $1,950,000 Antwon Blake 7 $1,300,000 Jordan Todman ? TBA AFC South Houston Texans Qualifying UFAs Lost: 2 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 4 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Brock Osweiler 3 $18,000,000 Brandon Brooks 4 $8,000,000 Jeff Allen 4 $7,000,000 Lamar Miller 5 $6,500,000 Ben Jones 6 $4,375,000 Tony Bergstrom 7 $2,875,000 Non-Qualifying UFAs Lost Non-Qualifying UFAs Gained Antonio Allen 7 $800,000 Indianapolis Colts Qualifying UFAs Lost: 3 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 3 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Coby Fleener 4 $7,200,000 Patrick Robinson 6 $4,000,000 Jerrell Freeman 6 $4,000,000 Scott Tolzien 7 $1,750,000 Dwight Lowery 7 $2,400,000 Jordan Todman ? TBA Non-Qualifying UFAs Lost Non-Qualifying UFAs Gained Robert Turbin 7 $760,000 Jacksonville Jaguars Qualifying UFAs Lost: 2 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 7 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Malik Jackson 3 $14,250,000 Tashaun Gipson 4 $7,100,000 Chris Ivory 5 $6,400,000 Prince Amukamara 5 $5,500,000 Kelvin Beachum 6 $4,500,000 Andre Branch 7 $2,750,000 Brad Nortman 7 $2,200,000 Bryan Anger ? TBA Mackenzy Bernadeau 7 $1,500,000 Non-Qualifying UFAs Lost Non-Qualifying UFAs Gained Sam Young 7 $910,000 Tennessee Titans Qualifying UFAs Lost: 1 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 5 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Coty Sensabaugh 6 $4,666,667 Rishard Matthews 6 $5,000,000 Ben Jones 6 $4,375,000 Sean Spence 7 $2,500,000 Matt Cassel 7 $2,000,000 Antwon Blake 7 $1,300,000 AFC West Denver Broncos Qualifying UFAs Lost: 6 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 2 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Brock Osweiler 3 $18,000,000 Malik Jackson 3 $14,250,000 Danny Trevathan 5 $6,125,000 Evan Mathis 6 $4,000,000 Donald Stephenson 6 $4,666,667 David Bruton 7 $3,000,000 Russell Okung 6 $4,000,000 Ryan Harris 7 $1,950,000 Kansas City Chiefs Qualifying UFAs Lost: 5 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 1 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Sean Smith 3 $9,500,000 Jeff Allen 4 $7,000,000 Mitchell Schwartz 4 $6,512,000 Chase Daniel 4 $7,000,000 Donald Stephenson 6 $4,666,667 Tyvon Branch 6 $4,000,000 Non-Qualifying UFAs Lost Non-Qualifying UFAs Gained Rod Streater 7 $810,000 San Diego Chargers Qualifying UFAs Lost: 4 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 4 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Eric Weddle 5 $6,500,000 Travis Benjamin 5 $6,000,000 Ladarius Green 6 $5,000,000 Casey Hayward 6 $5,100,000 Patrick Robinson 6 $4,000,000 Brandon Mebane 6 $4,500,000 Kendall Reyes 7 $2,500,000 Dwight Lowery 7 $2,400,000 Oakland Raiders Qualifying UFAs Lost: 2 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 3 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Kelechi Osemele 3 $11,200,000 Tony Bergstrom 7 $2,875,000 Sean Smith 3 $9,500,000 J’Marcus Webb 7 $3,000,000 Bruce Irvin 4 $9,000,000 Non-Qualifying UFAs Lost Non-Qualifying UFAs Gained Rod Streater 7 $810,000 NFC East New York Giants Qualifying UFAs Lost: 3 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 4 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Olivier Vernon 3 $16,980,000 Rueben Randle 7 $1,025,000 Janoris Jenkins 3 $12,500,000 Prince Amukamara 5 $5,500,000 Damon Harrison 4 $9,000,000 Robert Ayers 5 $6,500,000 Keenan Robinson 7 $2,600,000 Dallas Cowboys Qualifying UFAs Lost: 2 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 2 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Mackenzy Bernadeau 7 $1,500,000 Cedric Thornton 6 $4,250,000 Matt Cassel 7 $2,000,000 Alfred Morris 7 $1,750,000 Non-Qualifying UFAs Lost Non-Qualifying UFAs Gained Robert Turbin 7 $760,000 Philadelphia Eagles Qualifying UFAs Lost: 1 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 6 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Brandon Brooks 4 $8,000,000 Rodney McLeod 4 $7,400,000 Chase Daniel 4 $7,000,000 Cedric Thornton 6 $4,250,000 Nigel Bradham 6 $3,500,000 Ron Brooks 7 $1,833,333 Rueben Randle 7 $1,025,000 Non-Qualifying UFAs Lost Non-Qualifying UFAs Gained Thaddeus Lewis 7 $760,000 Chris Givens 7 $840,000 Washington Redskins Qualifying UFAs Lost: 2 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 2 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Keenan Robinson 7 $2,600,000 David Bruton 7 $3,000,000 Alfred Morris 7 $1,750,000 Kendall Reyes 7 $2,500,000 Non-Qualifying UFAs Lost Non-Qualifying UFAs Gained Frank Kearse 7 $825,000 NFC North Chicago Bears Qualifying UFAs Lost: 3 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 4 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Danny Trevathan 5 $6,125,000 Jarvis Jenkins 7 $2,000,000 Bobby Massie 5 $5,900,000 Matt Forte 6 $4,000,000 Akiem Hicks 6 $5,000,000 Shea McClellin 7 $2,883,333 Jerrell Freeman 6 $4,000,000 Detroit Lions Qualifying UFAs Lost: 1 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 4 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Marvin Jones 4 $8,000,000 Isa Abdul Quddus 6 $4,250,000 Johnson Bademosi 7 $2,250,000 Rafael Bush 7 $1,500,000 Tavon Wilson 7 $1,100,000 Green Bay Packers Qualifying UFAs Lost: 2 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 0 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Casey Hayward 6 $5,100,000 Scott Tolzien 7 $1,750,000 Minnesota Vikings Qualifying UFAs Lost: 1 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 3 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Alex Boone 4 $6,600,000 Andre Smith 6 $3,500,000 Josh Robinson 7 $2,000,000 Emmanuel Lamur 7 $2,750,000 Non-Qualifying UFAs Lost Non-Qualifying UFAs Gained Robert Blanton 7 $840,000 NFC South Atlanta Falcons Qualifying UFAs Lost: 1 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 5 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Alex Mack 4 $9,000,000 Mohamed Sanu 5 $6,500,000 Derrick Shelby 6 $4,450,000 Gino Gradkowski 7 $1,050,000 Matt Schaub 7 $1,750,000 Sean Weatherspoon 7 $1,500,000 Carolina Panthers Qualifying UFAs Lost: 1 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 1 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Brad Nortman 7 $2,200,000 Gino Gradkowski 7 $1,050,000 New Orleans Saints Qualifying UFAs Lost: 2 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 2 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Rafael Bush 7 $1,500,000 Coby Fleener 4 $7,200,000 Ben Watson 6 $3,500,000 Craig Robertson ? TBA Tampa Bay Buccaneers Qualifying UFAs Lost: 0 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 4 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Robert Ayers 5 $6,500,000 J.R. Sweezy 5 $6,400,000 Josh Robinson 7 $2,000,000 Bryan Anger ? TBA NFC West Arizona Cardinals Qualifying UFAs Lost: 3 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 2 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Bobby Massie 5 $5,900,000 Sean Weatherspoon 7 $1,500,000 Tyvon Branch 6 $4,000,000 Bradley Sowell 7 $1,000,000 Evan Mathis 6 $4,000,000 Los Angeles Rams Qualifying UFAs Lost: 2 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 1 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Janoris Jenkins 3 $12,500,000 Rodney McLeod 4 $7,400,000 Coty Sensabaugh 6 $4,666,667 San Francisco 49ers Qualifying UFAs Lost: 1 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 0 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Alex Boone 4 $6,600,000 Non-Qualifying UFAs Lost Non-Qualifying UFAs Gained Thaddeus Lewis 7 $760,000 Seattle Seahawks Qualifying UFAs Lost: 4 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 2 Name Rd. Real APY Name Rd. Real APY Bruce Irvin 4 $9,000,000 J.R. Sweezy 5 $6,400,000 Brandon Mebane 6 $4,500,000 Bradley Sowell 7 $1,000,000 Russell Okung 6 $4,000,000 J’Marcus Webb 7 $3,000,000 Not signing FA's obviously feels terrible in the moment. But we are starved for draft picks and theres only ONE consistent way to accumulate draft picks. That is to accumulate compensatory picks every year. Long term the best and most successful teams do it: The Patriots, Broncos, Ravens, Bengals. Even the Browns who are usually clueless are going to look amazing when they go into next years draft with 10 draft picks. Please see OTC chart in link. http://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/ This is definetly a major flaw in our FO's thinking. Next year well be asking ourselves if Matt Forte, Mclendon, and Jarvis Jenkins were worth a 4th rounder, 5th rounder, and 6th rounder. Keep in mind: 1- you can trade Comp picks next year. 2- You can still acquire players and get comp picks. The Jets could have signed CJ anderson, Josh Hil, Khiry Robinson, RG3 or any cut player and still would have received the above picks. Idzik couldn't draft for sh*t. But this is the one place he was clearly better then this FO. Going into a draft with 10-12 draft picks is something we will likely not see again as this FO just doesn't get this part of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebuzzardman Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Aren't Mclendon and Jenkins the sort of guys you hope picks in the 5th and 6th round turn into? Forte may or may not turn out to be less or more value than a 4th. A 4th rounder in the right GM's hands can yield a good player. Forte isn't a bum, just yet, but who knows. Pretty sure that line of thinking went into the Jet's GM decision making process; what extra picks are worth, by themselves and the ability to trade up by packaging them, vs getting a (hopefully) good player as a FA who doesn't cost that much and is where a 5th/6th rounder projects to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcat Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 27 minutes ago, Shockwave said: Not signing FA's obviously feels terrible in the moment. But we are starved for draft picks and theres only ONE consistent way to accumulate draft picks. That is to accumulate compensatory picks every year. Long term the best and most successful teams do it: The Patriots, Broncos, Ravens, Bengals. Even the Browns who are usually clueless are going to look amazing when they go into next years draft with 10 draft picks. Please see OTC chart in link. http://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/ This is definetly a major flaw in our FO's thinking. Next year well be asking ourselves if Matt Forte, Mclendon, and Jarvis Jenkins were worth a 4th rounder, 5th rounder, and 6th rounder. Keep in mind: 1- you can trade Comp picks next year. 2- You can still acquire players and get comp picks. The Jets could have signed CJ anderson, Josh Hil, Khiry Robinson, RG3 or any cut player and still would have received the above picks. Idzik couldn't draft for sh*t. But this is the one place he was clearly better then this FO. Going into a draft with 10-12 draft picks is something we will likely not see again as this FO just doesn't get this part of the game. Do you understand that acquiring comp picks is a balancing act between FA's lost and FA's acquired? The league will look at the compensation our departing FAs are now getting and compare to the compensation we are giving our newly acquires FAs. There are other criteria as well. So picking up a few relatively cheap FAs simultaneously in an off season during which you are losing comparatively very expensive FAs won't destroy your chances for acquiring very good comp picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyCarl40 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 What would you have the Jets do? Not sign free agents at all and hope to hit on all 6 draft picks this year? Signing free agents is something that they need to do. I'm not sure what the alternative is here, but compensatory picks are not going to make or break your roster. It's just not how it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shockwave Posted March 24, 2016 Author Share Posted March 24, 2016 8 minutes ago, Dcat said: Do you understand that it's a balancing act between FA's lost and FA's acquired? The league will look at the compensation our departing FAs are now getting and compare to the compensation we are giving our newly acquires FAs. THere are other criteria as well. So picking up a few relatively cheap FAs simultaneously in an off season during which you are losing comparatively very expensive FAs won't destroy your chances for acquiring very good comp picks. I just edited the topic starter to include Jason's page which includes explanation's etc for those that weren't clicking the link. Click the links etc - It will help you understand...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shockwave Posted March 24, 2016 Author Share Posted March 24, 2016 9 minutes ago, thebuzzardman said: Aren't Mclendon and Jenkins the sort of guys you hope picks in the 5th and 6th round turn into? Forte may or may not turn out to be less or more value than a 4th. A 4th rounder in the right GM's hands can yield a good player. Forte isn't a bum, just yet, but who knows. Pretty sure that line of thinking went into the Jet's GM decision making process; what extra picks are worth, by themselves and the ability to trade up by packaging them, vs getting a (hopefully) good player as a FA who doesn't cost that much and is where a 5th/6th rounder projects to. In general we are paying 30 year old's 3-4 million for the last years of their careers instead of paying guys 500,000-800,000 for the prime years of their careers with much higher upside. Theres a reason the Pats, Broncos, bengals, and Ravens do it everyyear and its one of the reasons they are so successful. And again - You can still get players. They just have to be a RFA (lowest tender like CJ Anderson/Hill) or Cut like RG3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shockwave Posted March 24, 2016 Author Share Posted March 24, 2016 8 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said: What would you have the Jets do? Not sign free agents at all and hope to hit on all 6 draft picks this year? Signing free agents is something that they need to do. I'm not sure what the alternative is here, but compensatory picks are not going to make or break your roster. It's just not how it works. Signing CJ Anderson instead of Matt Forte would have earned the Jets a 4th round pick. Having extra draft picks every year DOES make your roster. That IS the way it works. That is why the Pats, Broncos, Ravens, and Bengals do it every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Jets fan Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Let me understand this, you want the Jets to ether not sign players or sign worse ones so we get more late round comp picks?? Glad you have no say. how did the 12 picks go the last time the Jets had comp picks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
section314 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 4 minutes ago, Shockwave said: Signing CJ Anderson instead of Matt Forte would have earned the Jets a 4th round pick. Having extra draft picks every year DOES make your roster. That IS the way it works. That is why the Pats, Broncos, Ravens, and Bengals do it every year. Working wonders for the Bengals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerfish Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 If the formula works exactly as stated Shockwave has a point. I didn't think it worked exactly as shown but I could be wrong. If all these lower value Fa are cancelling out our higher ones and it is strictly a one for one thing then it is a problem. I thought the actual value of the players played more of a role in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyCarl40 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 6 minutes ago, Shockwave said: Signing CJ Anderson instead of Matt Forte would have earned the Jets a 4th round pick. Having extra draft picks every year DOES make your roster. That IS the way it works. That is why the Pats, Broncos, Ravens, and Bengals do it every year. You mean the same CJ Anderson who the Broncos matched the contract for? Say they do that, Forte signs with someone else and CJ Anderson is matched. Then what? Your argument makes no sense. Especially since the 4th round has not been kind to the Jets. Also, Forte is a lot better than Anderson. Your position here is not something that can maintained. The Jets have to sign free agents to supplement the roster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shockwave Posted March 24, 2016 Author Share Posted March 24, 2016 6 minutes ago, Beerfish said: If the formula works exactly as stated Shockwave has a point. I didn't think it worked exactly as shown but I could be wrong. If all these lower value Fa are cancelling out our higher ones and it is strictly a one for one thing then it is a problem. I thought the actual value of the players played more of a role in it. I been following the compensatory picks for years. Im sure you have to as your into the draft. Jason's site that I have above basically links back to the Patscap and this guy Adam's work on compensatory picks that literally predicted the comp picks perfectly every year month's before the NFL released them. Jason's formula, explanation, and tables is absolutely the most accurate your going to find on the net. Theres net value picks but the most your going to get for those are perhaps 7th's for the most part. With the NFL only allowing a set amount of picks (Around 32) the chances of you getting one of those is minimal and really should not be counted on. Because if your GM is counting on that he clearly doesn't know how to play the game that Belichek/Elway/Newsome play every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rex-n-effect Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 1 minute ago, Beerfish said: If the formula works exactly as stated Shockwave has a point. I didn't think it worked exactly as shown but I could be wrong. If all these lower value Fa are cancelling out our higher ones and it is strictly a one for one thing then it is a problem. I thought the actual value of the players played more of a role in it. As the intro material on the OTC link says, that chart does not account for net-value picks and other issues involved with comp picks so no, the chart is not the totality of the formula. The formula for net-value picks is secret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatsFanTX Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 If the formula works exactly as stated Shockwave has a point. I didn't think it worked exactly as shown but I could be wrong. If all these lower value Fa are cancelling out our higher ones and it is strictly a one for one thing then it is a problem. I thought the actual value of the players played more of a role in it. Unfortunately, the NFL has never released the exact formula. Why the hell not? Anyway, everything reported in the media claims that the most heavily weighted area in determining comp picks is actual playing time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 You're suggesting moneyball in the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerfish Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Just now, PatsFanTX said: Unfortunately, the NFL has never released the exact formula. Why the hell not? Anyway, everything reported in the media claims that the most heavily weighted area in determining comp picks is actual playing time. Well playing time and contract determine what round of pick you are going to get, the question is do you negate a comp pick one for one with every one you sign? (As an exaggerated example, the Pats lose Brady, Gronk and Collins to FA and sign Antonio Allen, Johnny Manzel and Jeff Cumberland. Thus they get no comp picks at all?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shockwave Posted March 24, 2016 Author Share Posted March 24, 2016 2 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said: You're suggesting moneyball in the NFL. What I'm saying is the Great Gm's in the NFL are already playing moneyball. Why is our GM not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Integrity28 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Signing 3 starting-caliber FA's at team-friendly contracts was stupid. We need teh comps picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rex-n-effect Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 1 minute ago, Shockwave said: What I'm saying is the Great Gm's in the NFL are already playing moneyball. Why is our GM not? What players on these four teams were comp picks that stayed on the roster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shockwave Posted March 24, 2016 Author Share Posted March 24, 2016 17 minutes ago, Joe Jets fan said: Let me understand this, you want the Jets to ether not sign players or sign worse ones so we get more late round comp picks?? Glad you have no say. how did the 12 picks go the last time the Jets had comp picks? Sounds like a Rex Ryan responce. Most people would have preferred CJ anderson this offseason to Forte. In fact the Bears tried to sign CJ Anderson and didn't even offer Forte a contract. So No - Your not passing up on better players. And Yes - Ill take 12 draft picks every year. Thankyou. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatsFanTX Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Well playing time and contract determine what round of pick you are going to get, the question is do you negate a comp pick one for one with every one you sign? (As an exaggerated example, the Pats lose Brady, Gronk and Collins to FA and sign Antonio Allen, Johnny Manzel and Jeff Cumberland. Thus they get no comp picks at all?) Without seeing the actual formula, I don't think anybody can answer your question. IMO, I don't think comp picks are rewarded solely on a 1:1 ratio (lose one, sign one). Other factors come into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleedin Green Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 3 minutes ago, Shockwave said: In general we are paying 30 year old's 3-4 million for the last years of their careers instead of paying guys 500,000-800,000 for the prime years of their careers with much higher upside. Theres a reason the Pats, Broncos, bengals, and Ravens do it everyyear and its one of the reasons they are so successful. And again - You can still get players. They just have to be a RFA (lowest tender like CJ Anderson/Hill) or Cut like RG3. Correlation is most certainly not causation. Basic logic would dictate you have this completely backwards. It is much easier not to sign UFAs when you already have a quality roster, it is not what causes a quality roster. It's not a magical formula that by refusing to improve your team in FA, late round picks next year are going to turn your team brilliant. You are seriously arguing that the Jets should not make any moves, for the sake of late round picks that they won't have for over a year. Next year's 6th and 7th rounders are pretty much considered worth next to nothing to teams at this point. Those fly around like crazy on draft days, so the Jets could easily enough pick some up if they really wanted. The only of those picks that anyone could legitimately consider to be a real loss would be the potential 4th rounder for Harrison, and all it will take is one other Jets UFA to be signed for even a low amount, and they'll have that pick back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyCarl40 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 3 minutes ago, Shockwave said: What I'm saying is the Great Gm's in the NFL are already playing moneyball. Why is our GM not? Because BB has been in New England like 20 years and has built a base of talent throughout the years to where he can pick and choose free agents. When MM got to the Jets, the cupboard was empty and they needed to put some talent into the team. This isn't going to be an overnight transition to success it takes years and years to build when the Steelers and Pats have. This thread is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Jets fan Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Just now, Shockwave said: Sounds like a Rex Ryan responce. Most people would have preferred CJ anderson this offseason to Forte. In fact the Bears tried to sign CJ Anderson and didn't even offer Forte a contract. So No - Your not passing up on better players. And Yes - Ill take 12 draft picks every year. Thankyou. Most people who? did you do a poll? Did you talk to 32 GM's? Christ, posters just love to make stuff up and pass it along as fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shockwave Posted March 24, 2016 Author Share Posted March 24, 2016 7 minutes ago, Beerfish said: Well playing time and contract determine what round of pick you are going to get, the question is do you negate a comp pick one for one with every one you sign? (As an exaggerated example, the Pats lose Brady, Gronk and Collins to FA and sign Antonio Allen, Johnny Manzel and Jeff Cumberland. Thus they get no comp picks at all?) The NFL has a set amount of comp picks yearly. With so many teams gaming the system there going to get these picks as losing a significant player (Oliver Vernon) will always outweigh a loss in net value (Losing Oliver Vernon but signing Matt Forte). So to answer your question is : If your lucky you might get a 7th for loss in Net Value. But look at the above Chart. Do you think our Net Losses will come in in the top 32? With the Chiefs, Browns, Broncos, Bengals and Dolphins already securing the first 18-19 picks? The last thing any competent GM would do is count on net value picks. When you look around the NFL when teams lose good players they play the comp pick game. Even Mike Tannebaum is doing it this year. We are one of the ONLY teams in the NFL this year that lose very good players and did not play the game. They clearly do NOT understand this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slats Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 It's easy to play the comp pick game when your team drafts well and has young talent in the queue and ready to go when your older vets are ready to get paid big money, but the accountant run Jets have sucked at drafting for a very long time. Mac could focus on trying to sign cut players over free agents, but the goal should be just putting the best team together. If Mac is as good as we all hope in the scouting/drafting department, the comp picks will start coming in a couple years down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shockwave Posted March 24, 2016 Author Share Posted March 24, 2016 So Im sure many people will be sh*tting on 4th, 5th, and 6th round picks yearly. With Comp picks being able to traded next year these are powerful picks. Just this year the Jets 5th and 6th round picks were traded for: If Mac doesn't get this part of the game - this is a huge drawback long term of our current GM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 1 minute ago, Shockwave said: So Im sure many people will be sh*tting on 4th, 5th, and 6th round picks yearly. With Comp picks being able to traded next year these are powerful picks. Just this year the Jets 5th and 6th round picks were traded for: If Mac doesn't get this part of the game - this is a huge drawback long term of our current GM. I agree. And we will be getting these comp picks. Unlike in baseball, so far as I know, comp picks arent taken away by signing big FA's. And even if they were, we didn't sign anybody major. So your concern is moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villain The Foe Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 1 hour ago, Shockwave said: is the one place he was clearly better then this FO. Going into a draft with 10-12 draft picks is something we will likely not see again as this FO just doesn't get this part of the game. Thanks Idzik! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Who the f*ck would prefer CJ Anderson over Matt Forte? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 1 hour ago, Joe Jets fan said: how did the 12 picks go the last time the Jets had comp picks? "Do the Jets not understand how comp picks work?" they understand. They understand all too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 58 minutes ago, slats said: the accountant run Jets have sucked at drafting for a very long time. They aren't really getting much better either. Devin Smith can't catch a football. Bryce Petty is the 3rd option on a team with 2 QBs. While Brian Winters started most of the year, Jarvis Harrison didn't make the roster. Deon Simon was so great they had to sign a NT from Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shockwave Posted March 24, 2016 Author Share Posted March 24, 2016 11 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said: Who the f*ck would prefer CJ Anderson over Matt Forte? That would be the Superbowl Champion Broncos, The Bears, and every other club that avoids 30 year old RB's. They didn't just prefer CJ anderson - they offered him a much larger deal then Forte got. In fact they didn't even offer Forte a deal similar to most other NFL clubs. Quote Matt Forte ✔@MattForte22 Me either RT @singinsince3: The way Ryan Pace went after CJ Anderson after not even offering Forte a contract doesnt sit well with me!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shockwave Posted March 24, 2016 Author Share Posted March 24, 2016 1 hour ago, slats said: It's easy to play the comp pick game when your team drafts well and has young talent in the queue and ready to go when your older vets are ready to get paid big money, but the accountant run Jets have sucked at drafting for a very long time. Mac could focus on trying to sign cut players over free agents, but the goal should be just putting the best team together. If Mac is as good as we all hope in the scouting/drafting department, the comp picks will start coming in a couple years down the road. I understand your thoughts - But as always putting together the best team over the long term is always going to be having an abundant amount of draft picks. We have the oldest team in the NFL. We don't have a QB right now. Why wouldn't we be thinking about building this roster long term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Il Mostro Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 2 hours ago, CrazyCarl40 said: What would you have the Jets do? Not sign free agents at all and hope to hit on all 6 draft picks this year? Signing free agents is something that they need to do. I'm not sure what the alternative is here, but compensatory picks are not going to make or break your roster. It's just not how it works. Exactly. Getting an actual proven NFL player at a position of need in exchange for a potential comp pick (heck, the pick itself isn't guaranteed, let alone the player) is a no-friggin'-brainer. Most of the time, the obvious and simple answer is the correct one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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