In college Brett Favre had a lower completion percentage than guess who?

[k-met57]

2 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

Wentz was killing it. You know what's more important than his 63% completion rate? The fact that Wentz only lost 3 games in his college career and absolutely dominated his division. This is how you become the 2nd overall pick bro. 

You dont go from that, to thinking that a guy who completed just 56% of his passes, lost 16 games, didnt dominate his conference, folded against tougher competition and didnt win all his games suddenly deserves the 3rd overall pick in the draft. 

 

Context my friend. 

have you seen who north Dakota state plays? wyoming lost like 3 players to the NFL last year, prior to that they were 1st in the mountain west...werent they? they also played much better teams!!

[Villain The Foe]

Just now, Philc1 said:

And most of the posters here didn’t want Wentz two years ago they wanted Lynch

And I was one of them because he came from a small school. 

And I was dead wrong on that. And there's nothing to be ashamed of with that also, picking a QB #1 overall has a hit rate of about 20 % and it goes down the further you go down in the draft. 

It's essentially a crap shoot. In hindsight, you can now see what folks saw in him, but lets not pretend like coaching didnt have alot to do with that. This is the same Eagles that won the Super Bowl without Wentz. 

[ZachEY]

10 minutes ago, Dcat said:

gotta love this site.  

Pitchforks over Allen are out there and waiting because of one thing: his completion percentage.  Tell me that's not extraordinarily stupid.  It's a negative stat for him for sure.  But JN treats it as the only important factor.  It's just one of many.  And I do not want Allen over the other 3, but the logic around these parts is flat out dumb.  And when it's pointed out that many QBs with good college completion % actually suck and many through history with low completion % have been brilliant, you guys get all pissy and sarcastic.  Why?  Because those who are looking at completion percentage only might be starting to realize that they need to expand their evaluations beyond that and it is pretty silly to rely exclusively on that one talking point..

That you need to go to the 70s to make your point kind of proves the opposite.

Allen's completion percentage doesn't mean with certainty that he will be bad.  But it's a reasonably reliable predictive metric.  And no matter how hard we try to deny it, simple math is better at making decisions than humans are, and simple math suggests that in all likelihood, Allen will not be able to complete passes in the NFL.  With a top pick, I'd rather not go on a scavenger hunt for outliers.

[Dcat]

6 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

I understand what the "point" is.  But, completion percentage X starts is pretty damn reliable.  And, it has been for a long time now.  I'm willing to bet that if similar analyses were run at the time of Marino/Favre/Namath/Montana, 60% would no longer be the #.

So, the Brett Favre arguments have almost no, but at least some merit on the surface.  My point was in trying to make the argument by suggesting that bad players have high completion percentages.  The data doesn't work like that, and suggesting it does is either trolling, or more likely, being fundamentally ignorant as to how it works.

And, ultimately, because the data does strongly correlate, I'd rather him prove me wrong on another team, and be the exception, than prove me right on my team, and cost us years.  Honestly, it's not all that different from two get-rich strategies, 1) Hard Work, 2) Win Lottery.  You absolutely can win the lottery, but your a hell of a lot less likely to be successful than by working hard.

show me the correlation stats please.  Again... it's one (1) and only one of many metrics and many non quantifiable evaluation points.  Do you deny that many people here are relying on it exclusively?  Because that's what I see.  THe moment they learn the number is below 60%, their eyes and ears are shut to anything else. 

If only their mouths were shut too. Now that would be a positive change.

[RedBeardedSavage]

FDR colluded with more Russians than guess who?

[CTM]

I used to think slots were for suckers until I discovered the below, now I realize it was me who was the sucker

[Philc1]

5 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

It's hopeless that folks will understand this.

Simms, Mayock, McShay and Kiper all don’t they all like Josh Allen

[Jets Voice of Reason]

 

2 minutes ago, CTM said:

I used to think slots were for suckers until I discovered the below, now I realize it was me who was the sucker

That one guy won once, so the whole statistical model of probability and odds is obviously wrong. 

[Thai Jet]

1 hour ago, Dcat said:

so did Joe Montana in his 3 years starting at Notre Dame.

 

						Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
1975	Notre Dame	Ind		QB	7	28	66	42.4	507	7.7	3.4	4	8	102.7
1977	Notre Dame	Ind		QB	9	99	189	52.4	1604	8.5	7.7	11	8	134.4
1978	Notre Dame	Ind		QB	11	141	260	54.2	2010	7.7	6.9	10	9	124.9
Career	Notre Dame					268	515	52.0	4121	8.0	6.8	25	25	125.6

OUCH !  Look at that TD/INT ratio ! I would say he's undraftable. lol

[Villain The Foe]

2 minutes ago, k-met57 said:

have you seen who north Dakota state plays? wyoming lost like 3 players to the NFL last year, prior to that they were 1st in the mountain west...werent they? they also played much better teams!!

Yes, and Khalil Mack Played for Buffalo and ended up being better than Jadaveon Clowney...a guy coming from from South Carolina and had all of the the hype going in. 

Khalil Mack DOMINATED when it came to tougher competition. When Buffalo played against Ohio St. He dominated. This is what im talking about. Josh Allen Folded in college against tougher competition. He didnt have to win the game, but statisically the guy's game went down the toilet bowl. 

That's the fact. What else is there to say other than im still waiting for someone to show me another Brett Favre situation to come about during this era of Football. 

 

[ZachEY]

2 minutes ago, Dcat said:

show me the correlation stats please.  Again... it's one (1) and only one of many metrics and many non quantifiable evaluation points.  Do you deny that many people here are relying on it exclusively?  Because that's what I see.  THe moment they learn the number is below 60%, their eyes and ears are shut to anything else. 

If only their mouths were shut too. Now that would be a positive change.

Someone will have to link you, but I think FO has it.

Many people here do use it as a benchmark for drafting a QB highly.  It's not a bad one, as history has shown.  That said, it's not like allen has anything else going for him except physical attributes, so, no reason to go much further.

[Philc1]

3 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

And I was one of them because he came from a small school. 

And I was dead wrong on that. And there's nothing to be ashamed of with that also, picking a QB #1 overall has a hit rate of about 20 % and it goes down the further you go down in the draft. 

It's essentially a crap shoot. In hindsight, you can now see what folks saw in him, but lets not pretend like coaching didnt have alot to do with that. This is the same Eagles that won the Super Bowl without Wentz. 

Well yeah Wentz didn’t do anything for that team

[Villain The Foe]

Just now, Philc1 said:

Well yeah Wentz didn’t do anything for that team

you can continue with the extremes and continue to miss the point if you like. 

[ZachEY]

1 minute ago, Philc1 said:

Simms, Mayock, McShay and Kiper all don’t they all like Josh Allen

All of whom would be out of a job if people understood math.

[Philc1]

Just now, Thai Jet said:

OUCH !  Look at that TD/INT ratio ! I would say he's undraftable. lol

Different era dude. Back then DBs were 12 ft tall and were allowed to drive motorcycles on the field 

[thebuzzardman]

Knosh Ballsack?

[CTM]

2 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

 

That one guy won once, so the whole statistical model of probability and odds is obviously wrong. 

Statistics are for fags

[Philc1]

Just now, TeddEY said:

All of whom would be out of a job if people understood math.

So if I multiply the number of public drunken disorderly arrests Mayfield got times crotch grabs and divide by passes to the running back I get Mark Sanchez?

[Thai Jet]

Just now, Philc1 said:

Different era dude. Back then DBs were 12 ft tall and were allowed to drive motorcycles on the field 

My bad I forgot.

[Dcat]

7 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

It's hopeless that folks will understand this.

"Hopeless"?  Now you are just being arrogant.  No, I'll bet the vast majority here understands this.   It's still not the end-all nor should it be the exclusive yardstick evaluators use.   To me, it's one reason of several why I have Allen 4th of the 4 top rated QBs.  I have others. I don't feel the positives outweigh the negatives for Allen.  Just like Rosen's health risks are huge negatives, but I don't feel they outweigh his positives.  That's why I have Rosen ranked above Mayfield and Allen. 

Fk it.  I really wanted Darnold, but 0-16 gets the privilege. Damn.  We need an NBA lottery for the bottom tiered teams.  

 

[dbatesman]

2 minutes ago, Dcat said:

show me the correlation stats please.  Again... it's one (1) and only one of many metrics and many non quantifiable evaluation points.  Do you deny that many people here are relying on it exclusively?  Because that's what I see.  THe moment they learn the number is below 60%, their eyes and ears are shut to anything else. 

If only their mouths were shut too. Now that would be a positive change.

That's because when the number is below 60%, it practically guarantees the guy will be bad. If you feel like producing any evidence contra that's more recent than the fall of the Berlin Wall, we'd be happy to shut our mouths and listen.

[Dcat]

10 minutes ago, Jetsplayer21 said:

I agree. But all the experts seem to agree Allen is MUCH farther behind being ready than the 3. 

That's another reason why I have Allen last of the 4.  It's not exclusisvely completion %. 

[ZachEY]

3 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

So if I multiply the number of public drunken disorderly arrests Mayfield got times crotch grabs and divide by passes to the running back I get Mark Sanchez?

Still waiting on you to find all my positive mayfield posts.

[Thai Jet]

10 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

And most of the posters here didn’t want Wentz two years ago they wanted Lynch

Correct. And just who was Wentz's college HC   ? ... same as Allen's Craig Bohl. Who, when he recruited Allen from Reedy College, saw another Carson Wentz in Allen.

[Dcat]

3 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

That's because when the number is below 60%, it practically guarantees the guy will be bad. If you feel like producing any evidence contra that's more recent than the fall of the Berlin Wall, we'd be happy to shut our mouths and listen.

All the names with below 60% thrown around in this thread should do it for you. Look dbates... if you want to make that one stat your benchmark, be my guest.  I think it is a lazy and sloppy way to evaluate and to debate.  I don't like his completion % either, but at least I try to approach this holistically.   That is all. 

[Thai Jet]

9 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

That's because when the number is below 60%, it practically guarantees the guy will be bad. If you feel like producing any evidence contra that's more recent than the fall of the Berlin Wall, we'd be happy to shut our mouths and listen.

As Mel would say... There's intangibles involved like leadership , competitiveness etc. That's one reason why so many people are so high on Allen.  He'll put a team on his back and carry them. 

[RichardTodd27]

Based on most of the Josh Allen's highlights I've seen, he does most of his damage outside of the pocket (almost always rolling to the right).

Again, I'm going to plead ignorance here because I've never seen any of his games, but can someone confirm that he's a good pocket passer, that can go through his progressions and has a good feel for pressure. Better yet, please show me some clips.

Because the other 3 guys (Darnold, Rosen & Mayfield) seem to have it.

[TxJetfan]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

was in a 12 team 2 rd dynasty fantasy rookie mock draft the other day (i know, i know)

and no QBs went in rd 1(as none will likely start and produce fantasy points)  but the first QB was Josh Allen in rd2 and the person cited Farve-like upside. NFL Gm's think the same way 

for those interested took WR DJ moore late in rd 1 and TE Mike Gesicki in rd 2 (cause Im a numbers Ho). Darnold went in rd 2, Rosen was last pick of the second round. Mayfield did not get drafted.  

Funny that you brought up Favre...I just saw a short interview with Allen's college coach, who coached Carson Wentz as well, and when he was asked to compare the two he said if he compared them to NFL greats, Wentz reminds him a little bit like Peyton Manning, and Allen "Has a lot of Brett Favre in him."...that could be both a good or a bad thing I suppose....LOL

[CTM]

5 minutes ago, Dcat said:

All the names with below 60% thrown around in this thread should do it for you. Look dbates... if you want to make that one stat your benchmark, be my guest.  I think it is a lazy and sloppy way to evaluate and to debate.  I don't like his completion % either, but at least I try to approach this holistically.   That is all. 

It's very myopic, the ability for a QB to regularly complete passes is a overrated 

[ZachEY]

13 minutes ago, Dcat said:

"Hopeless"?  Now you are just being arrogant.  No, I'll bet the vast majority here understands this.   It's still not the end-all nor should it be the exclusive yardstick evaluators use.   To me, it's one reason of several why I have Allen 4th of the 4 top rated QBs.  I have others. I don't feel the positives outweigh the negatives for Allen.  Just like Rosen's health risks are huge negatives, but I don't feel they outweigh his positives.  That's why I have Rosen ranked above Mayfield and Allen. 

Fk it.  I really wanted Darnold, but 0-16 gets the privilege. Damn.  We need an NBA lottery for the bottom tiered teams.  

 

One man's "arrogance" is another mans "not wanting to run head first into the same wall" over and over again.

Rosen's injuries are a concern, and if you showed me a simple model stating college concussions as predictive of NFL career success/length/etc, as convincingly as this 60% benchmark seems to work, I'd be willing to treat Rosen as Allen.

[Jets Voice of Reason]

9 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

That's because when the number is below 60%, it practically guarantees the guy will be bad. If you feel like producing any evidence contra that's more recent than the fall of the Berlin Wall, we'd be happy to shut our mouths and listen.

People are not getting the concept of screening. It doesn't guarantee Allen is bad, but it means he has to be a pretty tremendous statistical outlier to be successful. Yes, he can be successful in this league, but the risk and probability all point to a liklihood that he fails more than other prospects. 

Couple that with the fact we are picking 3rd and already gave up 3 2nd rounders and it would be a ******* trainwreck if Allen flops, like he has a high chance of doing. We are pitting high risk in investment with low probability of success. 

[dbatesman]

10 minutes ago, Dcat said:

All the names with below 60% thrown around in this thread should do it for you. Look dbates... if you want to make that one stat your benchmark, be my guest.  I think it is a lazy and sloppy way to evaluate and to debate.  I don't like his completion % either, but at least I try to approach this holistically.   That is all. 

Yeah so anyway I went ahead and did the work for you. Here's a list of all the QBs over the last 20 years who were drafted in the first round and completed less than 60% of their passes in their college career:

Ryan Leaf

Akili Smith

Cade McNown

Michael Vick

Joey Harrington

Carson Palmer

Kyle Boller

JP Losman

Jay Cutler

Brady Quinn

Matt Ryan

Matt Stafford

Josh Freeman

Jake Locker

[Jets Voice of Reason]

2 minutes ago, CTM said:

It's very myopic, the ability for a QB to regularly complete passes is a overrated 

He does everything good except throwing. 

[Villain The Foe]

9 minutes ago, Thai Jet said:

As Mel would say... There's intangibles involved like leadership , competitiveness etc. That's one reason why so many people are so high on Allen.  He'll put a team on his back and carry them. 

Thai, I love you man, but lets be real. Josh McCown has a job because of intangibles like leadership, competitiveness etc. But Josh McCown isnt winning you anything. It's like when I listen to Podcasts and folks always talk about how McCown had an "awesome year", and I always feel like they need to put that into proper context. It was an awesome year for Josh McCown. Anyone who doesnt know McCown and hears how "awesome" of a year he's had then goes and looks at his stats and win record would come away baffled at the statement. 

This is like Allen, I wouldnt say that Allen put his team on his back simply because Wyoming loved to throw the football. Putting your team on your back generally means winning, and though he's won games, it's not like it was overwhelmingly so. 

If anyone wants to see how a guy puts a team on his back and carries them, dont look at Barkley, Rosen, Allen or even Mayfield. THAT title goes to Lamar Jackson. He put Louisville on his back...literally. That program is mediocre at best. Watching Jacksons tape you can literally see him take over football games. 

I've never seen Josh Allen take over a football game. 

[ZachEY]

10 minutes ago, Dcat said:

All the names with below 60% thrown around in this thread should do it for you. Look dbates... if you want to make that one stat your benchmark, be my guest.  I think it is a lazy and sloppy way to evaluate and to debate.  I don't like his completion % either, but at least I try to approach this holistically.   That is all. 

That's kind of the point though, the holistic approach is less successful than simple math.  The fact that their are exceptions doesn't make the math irrelevant, it simply makes it predictive instead of a definitive measure of the future.  Again, Gates and Zuckerberg didn't graduate college.  Do you advise your children to skip college

Alos, this isn't just about true in every field, not just QB analysis.  And hence, why people really don't want to believe that basic equations do a better job than they do.