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Robby to command $13-$15m APY


Rhg1084

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38 minutes ago, Biggs said:

AJ Humphries is an example of why you don't pay not why you pay.  FYI he got a front loaded contract.  He's making in the low 7's this year and next before they will either cut him or renegotiate with him.  His production made him a none factor for TN this year.  They plugged in a rookie who cost them peanuts. 

Robbie is not a solid No. 2 or a solid slot receiver.  He's a speed guy who doesn't run good routes, catch a ton of balls, block or do any of the things good No. 2 WR usually do. He's a one trick pony with relatively low production.  

Meh I keep hearing that even with tough catches in traffic that he did make. Meanwhile he was the only offensive game-changer on the 2019 team and the solution seems to be "go cheap" to surround Darnold, with Crowder, a has-been, and a draft pick who may not pan out until years 2 or 3 of his career (assuming he's not injured or a bust outright). 

He's not my favorite receiver either, but he's going to get WR2 money that's light on guarantees - which is about right - not WR1 money that'd cost an additional $8-12MM/year, depending on the player. The other reality is the 2019 Jets were a terrible team to be on for a deep threat WR looking to rack up stats. The first half of the year in particular was death for that, from the lousy protection that didn't allow ample time for a deep play to develop, to Bell and the lousy run blocking giving defenses zero reason to keep an extra safety in the box. Likewise, it's pure convenience to presume Ryan Griffin gets as open underneath without a legit deep threat taking DBs with him as he runs deeper/away; and no, simply any fast decoy-only WR like Clyde Gates doesn't accomplish that just as well.

He didn't become a worse receiver in career years 3-4 than he was in year 2 with a weak-armed QB who underthrew him a number of times, followed by the last 1/4 season with Bryce Petty wetting himself. All these poor team situations act in concert together, especially for a deep threat; he's not Randy Moss who's capable of overcoming all these team deficiencies, but he's not going to get paid like a Randy Moss either.

If it takes an offer of $15MM+ per year with 1.5 or 2 years guaranteed, then I'm not interested either. One year at $12MM? Meh I don't see what all the uproar is about when people are willing to pay $2MM less. There's more than 10x that amount wasted every year; I don't see this as an area to save so little money over such a short span. 

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9 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

i'd rather keep anderson, draft OL and find wrs in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  plus they need a rb.  

No thanks.  We need to take a WR no later than the 2nd round.  Otherwise there's pretty much no point in drafting a WR at all (outside of those special teams-type contributors in the 6th/7th rounds).

Historically, 3rd/4th round WRs just aren't any good.  Not just for us but league-wide.  

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3 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

theilen was a UDFA.  john brown was a 3rd round pick.  these were 2 stars of wild card weekend.  

Brown caught 4/8 targets for 50 yards.  Not exactly a "star" performance.  

He did throw that TD but I don't think a trick play is a way to justify waiting until the 3rd round to take a WR.  Anyone could have been making that throw.  

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3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

No thanks.  We need to take a WR no later than the 2nd round.  Otherwise there's pretty much no point in drafting a WR at all (outside of those special teams-type contributors in the 6th/7th rounds).

Historically, 3rd/4th round WRs just aren't any good.  Not just for us but league-wide.  

I'm with you.

In fact, I trust Joe Douglas to find capable, starting caliber, upgraded offensive linemen outside Round 1 more than I trust the Jets to find WRs there.  I'd go CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy immediately at #11 if Wirfs, Thomas and Wills are gone.  The Jets have a 2nd, a 3rd and a 3rd to find themselves OTs and OGs.  In fact, the second tier of OTs is pretty good in this Draft (Austin Jackson, Becton, Prince Wanogho, etc.).

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1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Brown caught 4/8 targets for 50 yards.  Not exactly a "star" performance.  

He did throw that TD but I don't think a trick play is a way to justify waiting until the 3rd round to take a WR.  Anyone could have been making that throw.  

we can agree to disagree.  my opinion is that if darnold is going to be very good or better, just give him a good OL and then fill in the skill positions b/c he can make guys like griffen, herndon, anderson and others look good.  and if douglas can draft well darnold will make them look good too.  

the travesty would be if the jets drafted cee dee lamb (who i think will be very good) and once again fill in the OL with retreads and later round picks and then darnold is again running for his life or on his ass while lamb is open downfield.  

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1 minute ago, Augustiniak said:

My opinion is that if darnold is going to be very good or better, just give him a good OL and then fill in the skill positions b/c he can make guys like griffen, herndon, anderson and others look good. 

I agree with that on Darnold.  OL is far more important than WR.  But then there's no reason to pay top of the market money to Robby in that instance either.  He should be able to do just fine with a WR room of whatever we have left + whoever we draft + Herndon and Griffin at TE.

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I think we need to sign Robbie AND draft a WR no later than round 2.  Adding a young stud WR to Anderson / Crowder / Herndon is a nice leap and pushes everyone down to their proper role.  Removing Robbie from the equation and drafting a WR with a high pick is in essence just replacing Robbie and not getting much better IMO.  

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12 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

No thanks.  We need to take a WR no later than the 2nd round.  Otherwise there's pretty much no point in drafting a WR at all (outside of those special teams-type contributors in the 6th/7th rounds).

Historically, 3rd/4th round WRs just aren't any good.  Not just for us but league-wide.  

I agree with going high this year but the bold is totally inaccurate. The 3rd and 4th round have produced very good to great WR's over the past decade: Emmanuel Sanders, Eric Decker, TY Hilton, Mike Wallace, Keenan Allen, Brandon Lafell, Mohammad Sanu, , Jamison Crowder, John Brown, Tyler Lockett, Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, Travis Benjamin,Dede Westbrook, Marquis Goodwin, Chris Conley, Michael Gallup and those are just the highlights of those rounds. 

Not sure how you could group those rounds together and say "they're not very good" with that list of names.

 

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3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I agree with that on Darnold.  OL is far more important than WR.  But then there's no reason to pay top of the market money to Robby in that instance either.  He should be able to do just fine with a WR room of whatever we have left + whoever we draft + Herndon and Griffin at TE.

when all is said and done i don't think the market for anderson will be as robust as he thinks.  the jets will probably offer the most money to him and i think he stays a jet for a reasonable amount.  

i may be in the minority here but if the jets keep anderson i think rb is more glaring a need than wr.  the jets desperately need a younger, faster rb to use on screens, etc.  darnold needs better production from the rbs as well as viable outlets when his protection breaks down which is most of the time.  watch the offense open up more with a better OL and rbs which will force defenses to play the run honestly and cover rbs out of the backfield.

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1 minute ago, JiF said:

I agree with going high this year but the bold is totally inaccurate. The 3rd and 4th round have produced very good to great WR's over the past decade: Emmanuel Sanders, Eric Decker, TY Hilton, Mike Wallace, Keenan Allen, Brandon Lafell, Mohammad Sanu, , Jamison Crowder, John Brown, Tyler Lockett, Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, Travis Benjamin,Dede Westbrook, Marquis Goodwin, Chris Conley, Michael Gallup and those are just the highlights of those rounds. 

Not sure how you could group those rounds together and say "they're not very good" with that list of names.

 

 

A lot of the guys you listed are bums.  Wallace?  LaFell?  Benjamin?  Westbrook?  Goodwin?  Conley?  Come on.  

Brown is OK but he's already on his 2nd team.  Sanu has terrific hands but has also bounced around.  

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3 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

when all is said and done i don't think the market for anderson will be as robust as he thinks.  the jets will probably offer the most money to him and i think he stays a jet for a reasonable amount.  

I firmly doubt that.  The Free Agent WR group is trash this year.  Anderson is the only decent WR2 on the market that is also young.  He'll get paid like a low end WR1.

The only one who could get more than Robby would be Amari Cooper, and I expect the Cowboys will bring him back.

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1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

A lot of the guys you listed are bums.  Wallace?  LaFell?  Benjamin?  Westbrook?  Goodwin?  Conley?  Come on.  

Brown is OK but he's already on his 2nd team.  Sanu has terrific hands but has also bounced around.  

Those guys are bums?  lol  ok.

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2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I firmly doubt that.  The Free Agent WR group is trash this year.  Anderson is the only decent WR2 on the market that is also young.  He'll get paid like a low end WR1.

The only one who could get more than Robby would be Amari Cooper, and I expect the Cowboys will bring him back.

he's also done some stupid things and will get suspended if it happens again.  there are legit off the field concerns about him.  i still say he stays a jet, same with bell but the jets will try to trade him.  

i will say this - if douglas decides that trading jamal is the way to go and is hell bent on trading him, then i think the jets let anderson walk.  they would have 2 1st rounders as a result of the adams trade, and i would expect 1 of them to be used on a wr.  

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Just now, Augustiniak said:

yes, i think the jets will offer the most money, it will be reasonable, and that the jets know how to handle him now.  this could all be foolish on my part.

Yeah, that's a lot of optimism.  I'd love it if we could bring him back on a reasonable deal.  Nothing he's said or done suggests that'll happen though. 

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Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

 

A lot of the guys you listed are bums.  Wallace?  LaFell?  Benjamin?  Westbrook?  Goodwin?  Conley?  Come on.  

Brown is OK but he's already on his 2nd team.  Sanu has terrific hands but has also bounced around.  

Most 2nd round WRs are bums, too. More often than not you end up with Brian Quick and Arrelious Benn because GMs want that physical prototype so badly that guys get overdrafted for their combine numbers. 

Plus they get far more benefit of the doubt and more chances because of the higher investment.

What are the odds Stephen Hill gets as many starts as he did if he was drafted in round 5-7? Whatever they are, they're a lot lower.

Even most of the successful 2nd rounders, who got drafted into better situations than the 2020 Jets, don't put up numbers as rookies. e.g. Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson Randall Cobb, Davante Adams all got drafted with Aaron Rodgers in his prime tossing it, all became successful picks, but none did much as rookies. Tyler Boyd is looking really good now, but he didn't do much of anything until his 3rd season. 

This expectation that a yet-unknown opportunity, for a yet-unknown WR prospect, will surely put up 800-1000 yards as a rookie is delusional. Never mind it ignores if there's just far better value - at a premium position, not at S/ILB - I expect Douglas to take an OT, OG, or CB that somehow slipped to our 2nd round pick, over a WR who's eye of the beholder value for round 2. 

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1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The WR who had a nice season?  My guess is whichever one you're talking about had that season less recently than 2019, and hasn't done anything close to that since.  

Oh that particular bum who I posted those gaudy stats?    He posted those numbers in the year of 2019.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Meh I keep hearing that even with tough catches in traffic that he did make. Meanwhile he was the only offensive game-changer on the 2019 team and the solution seems to be "go cheap" to surround Darnold, with Crowder, a has-been, and a draft pick who may not pan out until years 2 or 3 of his career (assuming he's not injured or a bust outright). 

He's not my favorite receiver either, but he's going to get WR2 money that's light on guarantees - which is about right - not WR1 money that'd cost an additional $8-12MM/year, depending on the player. The other reality is the 2019 Jets were a terrible team to be on for a deep threat WR looking to rack up stats. The first half of the year in particular was death for that, from the lousy protection that didn't allow ample time for a deep play to develop, to Bell and the lousy run blocking giving defenses zero reason to keep an extra safety in the box. Likewise, it's pure convenience to presume Ryan Griffin gets as open underneath without a legit deep threat taking DBs with him as he runs deeper/away; and no, simply any fast decoy-only WR like Clyde Gates doesn't accomplish that just as well.

He didn't become a worse receiver in career years 3-4 than he was in year 2 with a weak-armed QB who underthrew him a number of times, followed by the last 1/4 season with Bryce Petty wetting himself. All these poor team situations act in concert together, especially for a deep threat; he's not Randy Moss who's capable of overcoming all these team deficiencies, but he's not going to get paid like a Randy Moss either.

If it takes an offer of $15MM+ per year with 1.5 or 2 years guaranteed, then I'm not interested either. One year at $12MM? Meh I don't see what all the uproar is about when people are willing to pay $2MM less. There's more than 10x that amount wasted every year; I don't see this as an area to save so little money over such a short span. 

Make him an offer of 30 mil at 4 years with 12 guaranteed and stand firm at that. We can draft a WR and make a run at Cooper who is a legit number 1. I'm not even sure what a guy like Cooper would command or if he will even be available  but he would instantly bring credibility to a WR corp. that desperately needs it and give our young QB players he can rely on for once. If the Cowboys want to keep Cooper they have to dump a few players and if they do that we can go the OL route by offering Adams for one of their OL and a few picks .If you do than you put the entire focus of FA and the draft on Offense since our D was already top 10 it will be even better with Williamson and Mosely coming back 

I would not mind a Cooper, Crowder, Griffin, Herndon, (rookie), situation and Herndon can even be used out wide at times. You must solidify the OL as a priority and with those guys catching the ball there are no excuses, especially if you still have Bell and Powell in the backfield. Any one of those guys mentioned will make the tough contested catches to move the chains and will also not cut routes short for being pussified. Anderson does one thing well, ONE, and you don't build a contending football team/contending offense with one trick ponies. We don't need a guy to stretch the field we need guys to move the chains and get tough first downs players like that keep defenses honest not guys who get open on passes deep that have about a 20 % chance of being completed. Guys like Anderson are easy to deal with vs good to great defenses and that's why he has games where he's totally non existent.

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1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Cool.  How about the rest?

Well let see.  You called 4 guys who are retired bums, despite their numerous 1000 yard seasons.  So, you got me there!  I have no comeback to those bums! 

If we're only focused on the 5 names of the twenty I listed except the one I just named?  Let's see here are 2 2019 bums that are still in the league.

66, 700 and 7

57, 800 and 8.

BUMS!!!!!!!!!!

 

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4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yeah, that's a lot of optimism.  I'd love it if we could bring him back on a reasonable deal.  Nothing he's said or done suggests that'll happen though. 

But drafting instant star WR1s in round 2 is not based on a lot of optimism? C'mon, man. 

You have to know after the fact which ones panned out. Because if the Saints knew that Thomas was nearly this good there's no way they sit on their hands and risk losing him; they trade up to get him 100x out of 100. The point is they didn't know, even as much as they liked him as a prospect. Never mind someone like Colston in round 7 a decade earlier. 

Draft WRs, absolutely. But betting on instant success, to find a WR1 who plays like a WR1 as a rookie, and makes other FA signings irrelevant, is betting against the odds.

The whole alleged plan was to loosen the wallets even if it means a little worse value, to err on the side of too much over too little, so our young QB has no excuses. Yet that's all we've given him are 2 years of excuses, and now I'm hearing we should sign up for a 3rd by building in, "Welllll, it's too early to call [WR rookie] a bust -- he made some good plays here and there, and I expect great things from him next year, but that's not Darnold's fault he's still inconsistent and you have to expect that from a rookie, plus it's also not his fault DT went on IR in week 3 and left a big hole..."

So $10MM for 1 year is acceptable, but $12MM for 1 year is a foolish waste that only a stupid team would do. For a legit deep threat, with years of starting experience, who's got plenty of speed, and who's got the past 2 years playing with Darnold, on a team that has exactly 1 starter-worthy WR under contract. AND after supposedly turning down a 4th round pick for one more half-season with him after we'd been all but mathematically eliminated. 

I legit don't get this, and I'm not even some huge fan of Anderson's in the first place. 

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1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

But drafting instant star WR1s in round 2 is not based on a lot of optimism? C'mon, man. 

We've seen it happen enough recently to say that's a better possibility than Robby signing a team-friendly deal.  You come on, man.  

And I want a WR in round 1.  Trade Jamal.  Get an OL and WR in the 1st.

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8 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

Make him an offer of 30 mil at 4 years with 12 guaranteed and stand firm at that. We can draft a WR and make a run at Cooper who is a legit number 1. I'm not even sure what a guy like Cooper would command or if he will even be available  but he would instantly bring credibility to a WR corp. that desperately needs it and give our young QB players he can rely on for once. If the Cowboys want to keep Cooper they have to dump a few players and if they do that we can go the OL route by offering Adams for one of their OL and a few picks .If you do than you put the entire focus of FA and the draft on Offense since our D was already top 10 it will be even better with Williamson and Mosely coming back 

I would not mind a Cooper, Crowder, Griffin, Herndon, (rookie), situation and Herndon can even be used out wide at times. You must solidify the OL as a priority and with those guys catching the ball there are no excuses, especially if you still have Bell and Powell in the backfield. Any one of those guys mentioned will make the tough contested catches to move the chains and will also not cut routes short for being pussified. Anderson does one thing well, ONE, and you don't build a contending football team/contending offense with one trick ponies. We don't need a guy to stretch the field we need guys to move the chains and get tough first downs players like that keep defenses honest not guys who get open on passes deep that have about a 20 % chance of being completed. Guys like Anderson are easy to deal with vs good to great defenses and that's why he has games where he's totally non existent.

If it's $12MM guaranteed - which is the neighborhood I'm talking about, who cares about the deal total? It's one year, so the offense isn't "draft pick pans out right away or we suck again" after shoring up the OL. 

If we can get an even better WR through FA or via trade, I'm in favor of that instead.

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Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

We've seen it happen enough recently to say that's a better possibility than Robby signing a team-friendly deal.  You come on, man.  

And I want a WR in round 1.  Trade Jamal.  Get an OL and WR in the 1st.

$12MM guaranteed is a team-friendly deal on a $200MM salary cap. You keep referring to WR2 money as WR1 money for some reason. 

I'm in favor of drafting a WR and an OL in round 1 as well. And I also still think Darnold is worth over-supplying with weapons rather than under-supplying, just so we can save $2-3MM that Douglas will use on a dimeback or 7th OLman for 1 season; an amount we're likely to carry a multiple of as extra space into the season. 

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8 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

he's also done some stupid things and will get suspended if it happens again.  there are legit off the field concerns about him.  i still say he stays a jet, same with bell but the jets will try to trade him.  

i will say this - if douglas decides that trading jamal is the way to go and is hell bent on trading him, then i think the jets let anderson walk.  they would have 2 1st rounders as a result of the adams trade, and i would expect 1 of them to be used on a wr.  

I firmly disagree that he is this big suspension risk.  Guys are/were counting on Herndon, Bell and Enunwa are both way more likely to seen suspensions.  Herndon has alcohol issues and a DUI.  Bell has a history of substance issues and Enunwa actually was already suspended for DV before the league really started getting tough. 

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20 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

$12MM guaranteed is a team-friendly deal on a $200MM salary cap. You keep referring to WR2 money as WR1 money for some reason. 

I'm in favor of drafting a WR and an OL in round 1 as well. And I also still think Darnold is worth over-supplying with weapons rather than under-supplying, just so we can save $2-3MM that Douglas will use on a dimeback or 7th OLman for 1 season; an amount we're likely to carry a multiple of as extra space into the season. 

Exactly, over supply, so for once we can stop the damn guessing as an organization to what we have at QB. You get talent around Darnold then the balls in his court to prove whether he's our guy or not and the only way you can do that is exactly what you're suggesting. 

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