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Barry McCockinner

Prediction: Bitcoin Will Hit $100,000 by the end of 2021

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The next halvening will be May 14th of 2020. After the first halvening, the price peaked at over 9000% above the price at the halvening date over the next year and a half. After the second halvening, the price peaked at nearly 3000% above the price at the halvening date over the next year and a half. I predict a 1000-2000% increase this time with around a 10K starting point on May 14.

If you don't know what the halvening is, basically it is a reduction of the reward for mining bitcoin by 1/2. So the amount being generated daily is cut in half at the halvening. 

You are welcome.

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12/14/2017: Value of bitcoin = $17,389.22.  

Value right now 2/10/2020 (includes all splits, etc. ) $9,843.52

anyone who invested 2 years ago has lost nearly half their investment.  Of course, had someone invested at or near the beginning it would be a different story.

Thanks for the financial advice. But is premised on hope and prayer.  

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51 minutes ago, Dcat said:

12/14/2017: Value of bitcoin = $17,389.22.  

Value right now 2/10/2020 (includes all splits, etc. ) $9,843.52

anyone who invested 2 years ago has lost nearly half their investment.  Of course, had someone invested at or near the beginning it would be a different story.

Thanks for the financial advice. But is premised on hope and prayer.  

Bitcoin does not have splits - it is not stock. I gave you the reason for the prediction but you chose to believe it is based on hope and prayer. 

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14 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Bitcoin does not have splits - it is not stock. I gave you the reason for the prediction but you chose to believe it is based on hope and prayer. 

Fact: Bitcoin has declined approximately 50% in investment value since 12/2017

the surge from the onset is irrelevant to now.  Halving won't matter.  Best of luck, but I wouldn't be putting retirement money in this.  Many people have been crushed by it since 2017.  No gain (let alone a nearly 50% loss) in over 2 years in a thriving market is not a good sign.

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28 minutes ago, Dcat said:

Fact: Bitcoin has declined approximately 50% in investment value since 12/2017

the surge from the onset is irrelevant to now.  Halving won't matter.  Best of luck, but I wouldn't be putting retirement money in this.  Many people have been crushed by it since 2017.  No gain (let alone a nearly 50% loss) in over 2 years in a thriving market is not a good sign.

Why do you believe the halvening will not matter? The cost of energy to mine the blocks will not change yet the reward will be cut in half. The price must go up. People having bought at or near the ATH doesn't change that.

1st Halvening: 11/28/2012, $12.22 

368 days later hits all time high of $1178

2nd Halvening: 7/9/2016, $657.61

525 days later hits all time high of $19800

3rd Halvening: 5/14/2020

 

btw, I would not recommend putting retirement money into bitcoin as you said you wouldn't. If you have a threshold for some high risk investing it makes sense IMO.

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General rule of thumb for high risk, high reward investments

Some people, not many but some, get in at the right time, get out in a very, very narrow window of right time and make a killing. Everyone else loses their yarbles. 

I thought of throwing some funds into this but then I remembered a voice from the past, "Gambling only pays when you're winning". I have to thank old Miss Mort for schooling a failure.  (this last part for those who can digit, if not … nevermind) 

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I made a ton of cash on Bitcoin last year.  Bought it at about $4K sold most of it around $12,500 (I think it got as high as $14K last June)

I'm back in for another piece around $6800 and will be watching it closely  - right now it's up to $10,300 and I have stop loss orders in to protect myself.

Buying something at it's all time high is often a losing investment.

 

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Well, if I'm going all-in on investment advice it seems as though the football internet forum stranger known as Barry McCockinner is the one to listen to.

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25 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Well, if I'm going all-in on investment advice it seems as though the football internet forum stranger known as Barry McCockinner is the one to listen to.

obviously

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Bitcoin isn't investing... It's gambling.

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15 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

What does Warren Buffett know anyway?

 

Warren Buffett says bitcoin is a ‘gambling device’ with ‘a lot of frauds connected with it’

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/04/warren-buffett-says-bitcoin-is-a-gambling-device-with-a-lot-of-frauds-connected-with-it.html

 

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2 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Warren Buffett says bitcoin is a ‘gambling device’ with ‘a lot of frauds connected with it’

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/04/warren-buffett-says-bitcoin-is-a-gambling-device-with-a-lot-of-frauds-connected-with-it.html

 

I was being sarcastic because Buffett was quoted as saying essentially the same thing you did. I thought you were quoting him, actually.

I don't really disagree, and I'm not averse to gambling. I do think a lot of what goes on on wall street is also gambling.

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3 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I was being sarcastic because Buffett was quoted as saying essentially the same thing you did. I thought you were quoting him, actually.

I don't really disagree, and I'm not averse to gambling. I do think a lot of what goes on on wall street is also gambling.

Gotcha - No, I wasn't aware of his position.  Just googled it right now.

I don't think it's a terrible gamble either.  I've toyed with the idea a few times, but I feel like I'm not knowledgeable enough and don't have the time to become knowledgeable enough to dive in.

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45 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Gotcha - No, I wasn't aware of his position.  Just googled it right now.

I don't think it's a terrible gamble either.  I've toyed with the idea a few times, but I feel like I'm not knowledgeable enough and don't have the time to become knowledgeable enough to dive in.

If you are interested and can find the time before May 14, I think it would be worth your while.

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On 2/10/2020 at 5:01 PM, Barry McCockinner said:

The next halvening will be May 14th of 2020. After the first halvening, the price peaked at over 9000% above the price at the halvening date over the next year and a half. After the second halvening, the price peaked at nearly 3000% above the price at the halvening date over the next year and a half. I predict a 1000-2000% increase this time with around a 10K starting point on May 14.

If you don't know what the halvening is, basically it is a reduction of the reward for mining bitcoin by 1/2. So the amount being generated daily is cut in half at the halvening. 

You are welcome.

I've been in the crypto space since 2014. What you're saying matters.

 

Would I bank on BTC going to 100K by the end of 2021? I doubt that, but it's possible. Could it surpass it's ATH of 20K? I believe so. 

 

You're going to find alot of folks who dismiss this space, because it isnt conventional. The price most definitely fell 50% since the end of Dec. 2017. However, what asset class over the past decade has outperformed BTC? 

 

10 years ago Bitcoin was worth 8 cent, today it's worth 10 grand. During that 10 years span we've seen 3 separate price pullbacks of close to 85% from their previous ATH prices. However, the first 2 not only recovered their ATH price, but proceeded to 100X their ATH the first time, then 10X their ATH the 2nd time. If BTC 5X their current ATH it would hit 100K. IF it simply doubled their ATH it would be at 40K. The speculation for BTC however is irrelevant. The folks who are waiting for the usual investment geniuses to speak forget that those geniuses only speak about an asset when they're looking to exit the market. This is why back in 2017 when I began to hear about bitcoin and Crypto on TV everyday I knew that it as going to be a few months before it tanked, as the TV (media) is just the tool used to get who they consider "the fools" to buy at the top. The usual popular investment moguls that we all know never talk about those realities of how media is used to influence liquidity for holders to sell. Some of us peep the game though. How do I know? Because I purchased BTC during the first run up at $1,900 during the time that it was all over the news and newpapers. My $3,000 ended up becoming about $500...then the news papers and televisions went silent for a couple years. 

I watched it happen the exact same way in 2017. About October 2017 it became a daily conversation on television, and then I knew "This is how they get folks in". BTC ran up from about 4K to 20k from October to December, folks jumped in and got slaughtered. One year later, it hit its low. No different than the previous times. 

Folks have to learn how these markets are generally influenced, that's all. 

 

Also, Facebook is still looking to implement Libra, their crypto currency which would immediately on-board and give crypto access to over 1 billion people. 

Just a couple weeks ago Congress had this discussion. 

 

Furthermore, BTC went from 20K to 3.6K by the end of the 2018, which means that if you purchased BTC in January 2019 you would have almost tripled your money by today's prices. So folks knit-picking a date/time to make an asset seem like a bad buy only shows the lack of ability of when to buy/sell an asset class. If you purchased BTC this time last year 2019 you would have almost tripled your investment. so if that's the case, then why are folks still stuck on 2017? 

 

With all that said, dont fall in love with this or any space. Crypto will be part of our further financial inslavement in about another decade. 

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3 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

I've been in the crypto space since 2014. What you're saying matters.

 

Would I bank on BTC going to 100K by the end of 2021? I doubt that, but it's possible. Could it surpass it's ATH of 20K? I believe so. 

 

You're going to find alot of folks who dismiss this space, because it isnt conventional. The price most definitely fell 50% since the end of Dec. 2017. However, what asset class over the past decade has outperformed BTC? 

 

10 years ago Bitcoin was worth 8 cent, today it's worth 10 grand. During that 10 years span we've seen 3 separate price pullbacks of close to 85% from their previous ATH prices. However, the first 2 not only recovered their ATH price, but proceeded to 100X their ATH the first time, then 10X their ATH the 2nd time. If BTC 5X their current ATH it would hit 100K. IF it simply doubled their ATH it would be at 40K. The speculation for BTC however is irrelevant. The folks who are waiting for the usual investment geniuses to speak forget that those geniuses only speak about an asset when they're looking to exit the market. This is why back in 2017 when you I began to hear about bitcoin and Crypto on TV everyday I knew that it as going to be only a couple months before it tanked, as the TV was just the tool used to get the fools to buy at the top. The usual popular investment moguls that we all know never talks about those realities. Some of us peep the game though. How do I know? Because I purchased BTC during the first run up at $1,900 during the time that it was all over the news and newpapers. My $3,000 ended up becoming about $500...then the news papers and televisions went silent. 

I watched it happen the exact same way in 2017. About October 2017 it became a thing to hear about it daily, and then I knew "This is how they get folks in". BTC ran up from about 4K to 20k from October to december, folks jumped in and got slaughtered. One year later, it hit it's low. No different than every other time. 

Folks have to learn how these markets are generally influenced, that's all. 

 

Also, Facebook is still looking to implement Libra, their crypto currency which would immediately on-board and give crypto access to over 1 billion people. 

Just a couple weeks ago Congress had this discussion. 

 

Furthermore, BTC went from 20K to 3.6K by the end of the 2018, which means that if you purchased BTC in January 2019 you would have almost tripled your money by today's prices. So knit-picking a date/time to make an asset seem like a bad buy only shows the lack of ability to buy/sell an asset class. 

 

With all that said, dont fall in love with this or any space. 

Good post. It's a very interesting market because there's never been anything quite like it and no one really knows what's going to happen. The news loves to focus on the negative but your point is 100% true. 8 cents to 10k in 10 years. That's insane returns if you got in that early. So far, anyone who has got in between halvenings at low points also did very well. It's not unreasonable to think the market will react as it has previously although it is a small sample size.

I got involved around the same time as you, maybe a little earlier. I remember the price being between 2 and 3 hundred when I first got interested. I thought it was a ridiculous price then!

If you haven't already checked out LINK - do so. It had a massive 2019 and should be a monster during the next bull run given its utility.

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24 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Good post. It's a very interesting market because there's never been anything quite like it and no one really knows what's going to happen. The news loves to focus on the negative but your point is 100% true. 8 cents to 10k in 10 years. That's insane returns if you got in that early. So far, anyone who has got in between halvenings at low points also did very well. It's not unreasonable to think the market will react as it has previously although it is a small sample size.

I got involved around the same time as you, maybe a little earlier. I remember the price being between 2 and 3 hundred when I first got interested. I thought it was a ridiculous price then!

If you haven't already checked out LINK - do so. It had a massive 2019 and should be a monster during the next bull run given its utility.

I first came across the name bitcoin in 2011, I watched it literally go from cents into 10's of dollars, to hundreds etc. 

I was always a Gold/Silver bug, which I goes back to about 2008. Folks in that community began talking about BTC and many of us laughed it off as well as criticizing folks taking it seriously. Boy were we wrong. I literally watched BTC over that time start from nothing, into the Mt. Gox debacle, the invention of coinbase, and that initial run up. I remember when BTC passed silver in price, i was somewhat humbled, but by that time it was probably about $28 bucks. No big deal, but I remember the day it passed the price of gold....talk about being humbled.

On top of the fact of being humbled, I then purchased at the top (being influenced by all of the media coverage and trying to save face) and got COMPLETELY REKT in the market. I sold hundreds of oz of Silver in order to get into Bitcoin, only to get rekt'd like 3 months later. 

 

It was completely my fault. I jumped in because I saw dollar signs and was greedy, not because I understood anything about blockchain tech. I held on to that BTC, converted to litecoin and for years held it on a throwback exchange back in the day called Crypsy. I think in early 2017 I came across that crypsy account and realized that I still had LTC there. 

That 2017 bull run was definitely appreciated! lol. 

 

I'll say this, I've made more gains listening to myself and considering info from random folks on the web than listening to Warren Buffett. I'll take my chances. 👍

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11 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

I first came across the name bitcoin in 2011, I watched it literally go from cents into 10's of dollars, to hundreds etc. 

I was always a Gold/Silver bug, which I goes back to about 2008. Folks in that community began talking about BTC and many of us laughed it off as well as criticizing folks taking it seriously. Boy were we wrong. I literally watched BTC over that time start from nothing, into the Mt. Gox debacle, the invention of coinbase, and that initial run up. I remember when BTC passed silver in price, i was somewhat humbled, but by that time it was probably about $28 bucks. No big deal, but I remember the day it passed the price of gold....talk about being humbled.

On top of the fact of being humbled, I then purchased at the top (being influenced by all of the media coverage and trying to save face) and got COMPLETELY REKT in the market. I sold hundreds of oz of Silver in order to get into Bitcoin, only to get rekt'd like 3 months later. 

 

It was completely my fault. I jumped in because I saw dollar signs and was greedy, not because I understood anything about blockchain tech. I held on to that BTC, converted to litecoin and for years held it on a throwback exchange back in the day called Crypsy. I think in early 2017 I came across that crypsy account and realized that I still had LTC there. 

That 2017 bull run was definitely appreciated! lol. 

 

I'll say this, I've made more gains listening to myself and considering info from random folks on the web than listening to Warren Buffett. I'll take my chances. 👍

Damn - such a missed spot having known about it at a few cents. Even if you threw $10 on it expecting to lose it. 

f

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12 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Damn - such a missed spot having known about it at a few cents. Even if you threw $10 on it expecting to lose it. 

f

Yeah. I was a complete knucklehead for that one. This is why I said in my initial comment "Dont fall in love with the space". I say that through experience. I missed Bitcoin in it's cents phase because I basically fell in love with the Gold/Silver space and was too deep in it to realize that the purpose was solely to establish financial stability, not put assets on pedestals. I knew about Bitcoin when Silk Road was still a thing! lol. 

But to be fair, Im self taught in the world of finance, currency and money, which IMO is the best way to go. I totally learned through trial and error. 

 

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I'm holding a bunch of Ethereum that started tanking the day after I bought it 2 yrs ago. It's starting to climb back up to where my 10K investment is currently  worth in the neighborhood of 2.8K

So yeah it's faring better than my heavy AOL buy back in the day 

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Ethereum was going to be the next bitcoin according to my coworker from the phillipines who used it to transfer $$$ to his wife back home. Not sure how much that poor guy had in it.

it was at 1200 when I bought & is now rising to 285

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14 minutes ago, joewilly said:

I'm holding a bunch of Ethereum that started tanking the day after I bought it 2 yrs ago. It's starting to climb back up to where my 10K investment is currently  worth in the neighborhood of 2.8K

So yeah it's faring better than my heavy AOL buy back in the day 

 

11 minutes ago, joewilly said:

Ethereum was going to be the next bitcoin according to my coworker from the phillipines who used it to transfer $$$ to his wife back home. Not sure how much that poor guy had in it.

it was at 1200 when I bought & is now rising to 285

There's alot of DeFi projects (Decentralized Finance projects) being built on ETH right now. However, ETH has a consensus problem. They're trying their best to transition over from the proof of work consensus to a proof of stake/delegated proof of stake algo. The problem with that is massive. That's like trying to change the engine of a car while driving on the FDR going 55. ETH has been talking about v.2.0 for years now. By time they figure something out it'll be hard to not see another project take hold. The other problem is that you have to pay gas for every transactions you make on the network, which means that not everything can be built on ETH given that it may not be practical. Imagine building a social media app where you have to pay to like someone's comment, for example. I have no idea how Vitalik is going to do that. 

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I just want to add, it doesnt matter much what Warren Buffett says when it comes to technology. This is the same guy that missed the opportunity to invest in Google and Amazon, but instead decided to go invest in IBM at that time, which turned out  being a bad investment. 

 

As a matter of fact, Warren Buffett's investments are largely outside of the technology sector. And he explains it as "not investing in a sector or buisiness that he doesnt acutely understand". 

So the next time Warren Buffett makes a comment about something he doesnt acutely understand, maybe folks should take it with a grain of salt. 

The man is highly successful, but he's CLEARLY been wrong in regards to Bitcoin. Had anyone purchased $5 of Bitcoin 10 years ago, they'd be a multi millionaire today. There is no investment that Warren has recommended that had had that level of wealth transference/return. Yet there were some 13 year old geeks who had more insight. Quoting Warren Buffett only works to maintain your opinion, but it doesn't change the reality that the man has been wrong for years in respects to returns....which is what this should be about anyway. Buying low, selling high...remember???

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052515/why-does-warren-buffett-largely-avoid-investing-technology-sector.asp

 

Why does Warren Buffett largely avoid investing in the technology sector?

 

 
 Updated Feb 15, 2020

Legendary value investor Warren Buffett is notorious for avoiding investments in the technology sector. The main reason he steers clear of such stocks is because he's loathed to invest in any business he doesn't acutely understand. Even during the height of the dot.com boom of the late 1990s, Buffett shied away from even the hottest internet plays. When asked about specifics, Buffett articulated two chief reasons for his reluctance to dive into the tech pool. This article takes a closer look at those reasons.

 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Value investment guru Warren Buffett is known for his reluctance to invest in the technology sector.
  • Buffett steered clear of dot.com stocks, even during the height of the tech boom in the late 1990s.
  • Buffett believes most tech plays lack "economic moats," which are sets of competitive advantages allowing companies to prosper in the long run, including patentable products and high barriers to entry for competitors.
  • Buffett is also reluctant to invest in tech names because their valuations are inherently unstable.
  • Buffett has made rare exceptions, taking positions in Apple Inc. and IBM.

The Economic Moat

First and foremost, according to Buffett, technology companies lack "economic moats," a term he coined in 1999 to describe a collection of competitive advantages companies must have in order to remain profitable over the long haul. Moats may comprise a multitude of factors, including patents on products that are essential to a particular service, as well as high barriers to entry for competitive interests. Without these advantages firmly in place, a company may struggle to grow its market share in a crowded field.

 

Explained Buffett: "The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company and, above all, the durability of that advantage. The products or services that have wide, sustainable moats around them are the ones that deliver rewards to investors."

 

Hard to Pick Winners

The second reason is Buffett is leery of tech stocks, is because he believes it's hard to reliably choose winners. Furthermore, it's a challenging prospect to determine if valuations will hold strong--even for seemingly attractive stocks. His view is supported by research, which shows that even thriving dot.com plays can suddenly experience sharply declining valuations. In other words, the tech landscape is intrinsically unpredictable and unstable.

 

Notable Exceptions

Despite his staunch anti-tech posture, Buffett has made a few rare exceptions, where he took the technology plunge. But even in these situations, only the largest and most well-established companies caught his attention. Case in point: In May 2018, Buffett's investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, owned 165.3 million shares in Apple, valued at approximately $42.5 billion. This investment ostensibly replaced the company's 2011 tech sector investment when it bought 64 million shares of IBM stock, which were subsequently sold throughout 2017 and 2018.

 

 

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I bought Dell in 1994. Invested 5K, turned into 80K.  Bought Nokia in 95 turned 4 K into 50K.  Want to make money, invest in things you understand. Read Peter Lynch, John Bogle, William Bernstein, David Swenson. 
 

I bought my 1st IPhone in 2009.  was so impressed, I bought 15 K Apple stock.  It’s near 100K today.  Wouldn’t touch Bitcoin in a million years. 

Ive never met a person I consider to be smart who invests in Bitcoin.  

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16 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

I bought Dell in 1994. Invested 5K, turned into 80K.  Bought Nokia in 95 turned 4 K into 50K.  Want to make money, invest in things you understand. Read Peter Lynch, John Bogle, William Bernstein, David Swenson. 
 

I bought my 1st IPhone in 2009.  was so impressed, I bought 15 K Apple stock.  It’s near 100K today.  Wouldn’t touch Bitcoin in a million years. 

Ive never met a person I consider to be smart who invests in Bitcoin.  

There are people who understand bitcoin, just fyi. 🤣

If you understood bitcoin in 2009 and put that 15k into BTC instead of apple it would be worth over 3 billion today. 😁

Of course, you'd have to have been a complete maniac to do that.

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1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

There are people who understand bitcoin, just fyi. 🤣

If you understood bitcoin in 2009 and put that 15k into BTC instead of apple it would be worth over 3 billion today. 😁

Of course, you'd have to have been a complete maniac to do that.

More people lost a ton of money in bitcoin than made money.  no question. Bitcoin is speculation on an asset with dubious qualities.  I am a CFP and manage money for over 100 families. I have never seen a professional advisor use Bitcoin.  I have heard of many in a bar who invest in it. 

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7 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

More people lost a ton of money in bitcoin than made money.  no question. Bitcoin is speculation on an asset with dubious qualities.  I am a CFP and manage money for over 100 families. I have never seen a professional advisor use Bitcoin.  I have heard of many in a bar who invest in it. 

You seem very proud of yourself. 

What would you say are the "dubious qualities" of Bitcoin? 

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3 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

You seem very proud of yourself. 

What would you say are the "dubious qualities" of Bitcoin? 

It’s not an asset with measurable and quantifiable characteristics that make for a good investment.  just my opinion.  

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33 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

It’s not an asset with measurable and quantifiable characteristics that make for a good investment.  just my opinion.  

Wouldn't lacking characteristics be different than having dubious characteristics? Maybe you were just clarifying what you meant to say.

I just happened to stumble on this and thought it was relevant. 

 

EQyCWTeWAAA7J0l.png

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25 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Wouldn't lacking characteristics be different than having dubious characteristics? Maybe you were just clarifying what you meant to say.

I just happened to stumble on this and thought it was relevant. 

 

EQyCWTeWAAA7J0l.png

Measurable and quantifiable ....  I’m done here.  I’ve never met someone who made money , long term in bit coin.   They are like Vegas players....  

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On 2/17/2020 at 2:16 AM, southparkcpa said:

More people lost a ton of money in bitcoin than made money.  

Instead of asking you for proof behind this statement, instead I'll accept your statement as true, and say this...

There are more people who lost a ton of money in the stock market than made money. 

The difference is? Crypto (not just bitcoin) have made folks wealthy with much less than 4K-15K over a much shorter period of time. I know folks who with a few hundred made 6+ figures just in 2017 alone. 

I know folks who purchased EOS at less than $2 in Dec. 2018 and sold it 6 months later in June 2019 at $8, making more than 4X their money in 6 months...not 10 years. 

To be fair, I also know folks who lost 90% value, or gained enormous gains only to not sell and lost it all. My point is that if you take your time you can make small amounts of money do big things for you. 

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no question. Bitcoin is speculation on an asset with dubious qualities.

Bitcoin (1 project within the crypto space) may be dubious to you, and a 10 year old new piece of tech with no prior history and still no "professionals" in the space, it would be hard to argue against that term used...but blockchain as a technology with 1,000's of different crypto projects surely isnt dubious. Im not saying that 1,000's will survive, no, what im saying is that this is no different than the dot.com bubble that burst (you know how many people lost money in the stock market when that happened????), but out of that came some of the largest companies in human history, along with arguably the most important tech in human history when it came to freedom of education, choice, opportunity etc. The same tech that people looked at initially as dubious when they said "Wait...Electronic mail? O'really??? Is that what you internet double U double  U dot people are trying to sell as the future?". Remember those days? 

Read Warren Buffett and especially Peter Schiff if you want to see highly successful guys who's incorrect, yet very popular opinions over the years  regarding Bitcoin/Crypto kept folks from even trying to understand what they so easily criticize. I should know, as I was one of those folks listening to guys like Peter Schiff backing in 2011-14 because he kept pumping to me what I liked to hear instead of reserving judgement and only dealing with facts and due diligence...which is what 99% of these kind of folks don't do.  

Quote

 I am a CFP and manage money for over 100 families. I have never seen a professional advisor use Bitcoin.  I have heard of many in a bar who invest in it. 

To be fair...you're a CFP, which means that you probably get paid upfront whether you turn a profit or not. And if you do earn any profit you probably get to double dip as you also get a cut of that profit as well, depending on the contractual agreements. sh*t, I aint hating on you!  :thumbup: Managing large amounts of money and earning 3%-10% return a year is great nominal return. Folks who are dealing with a few hundred bucks, need a different avenue. 

There are folks who come from neighborhoods like mine who didnt have a need to even acquire a service like yours, let alone have the initial funds to invest. However, if you have an understanding of this space (which the internet is there for everyone, folks must stop wasting time on facebook and actually learn and study the space) you can get into anything you want because there is no barrier outside of just teaching yourself. You can literally work in this space and leave your old legacy job as I did.

I've stopped working for people in 2017 and I submit worker proposals to projects that may need my service. This crypto space has given me "my time back" because I dont have to give that time to some employer, helping to build "their" dream while he tells me when I must work, how long I will work, what days, when to take vacation, etc.. I'm currently learning Javascript and vue.js over the next couple months in order to submit another worker proposal in order to manage arbitration portals and find potential problems within code and accessing github's. 

Is it dubious? I'd rather use the word "risky". Then again, what isnt dubious in a world where "credit default swaps" exist? Special shout out to my girl Blythe Masters for creating that nonsense lol.  Are the rewards high and constant depending on how you operate in this space? Absolutely. You have to understand this space just like any other space. The difference? I can do these things myself and not have to depend on a CFP who's guaranteed payment whether he gain profits, busts or go sideways. 

As a side note, you said that you've not seen any professional advisor use Bitcoin. Well, there are quite a few newly licensed custodians such as Fidelity that are now in the crypto mix. You got Gemini, Founded by the Winklevoss twins of Facebook fame. As you may also know, I live in Germany and last week there was an article release where about 40 banks contacted Germany’s "Federal Financial Supervisory Authority" seeking to become regulated cryptocurrency custodians. 

This is bigger than bitcoin, and by the time folks realize it, we'll make sure to sell it to them...just like Warren Buffett does! :-) 

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I just want to point out that it is anecdotal to say that "I never met anyone who made money on bitcoin". That's based on who you know and when they bought in. An excerpt from the following article: "In fact, if you had bought Bitcoin in 120 out of the 125 months it has existed, you would be in profit if you held until today."

Article from June 3 2019

Bitcoin Investments Made During 96% of Its Existence Have Brought Profits

Since Bitcoin (BTC) first hit the markets back in January 2009, it has been on an incredible upwards trajectory — its value skyrocketing by more than a million percent.

In just over a decade, the price of BTC has grown from practically zero when it was launched, up to as high as $20,000 on some exchanges. This growth is widely considered to be unprecedented, easily outpacing all other asset classes during this time.

bitcoin all-time high

 

Bitcoin (BTC): A Profitable Asset

During this time, Bitcoin also became (in)famous for another reason — its extreme volatility. Bitcoin prices sometimes fluctuate wildly, losing or gaining double-digit percentages within just minutes. Although this may be a dream come true for volatility traders, it can be a nightmare for anyone looking to invest in the cryptocurrency, since they would risk losing a significant fraction of their investment very quickly.

However, in the 10 years and five months since Bitcoin has been released, the price of BTC has been at, or under, its current price of around $8,600 for nearly the entire time. In fact, if you had bought Bitcoin in 120 out of the 125 months it has existed, you would be in profit if you held until today. The only months where you would still be at a loss are the high point periods between December 2018 and May 2019.

bitcoin exchange

Risks and Rewards

One way of avoiding the risks associated with sudden price movements common with cryptocurrencies like BTC is dollar-cost averaging. This strategy essentially requires that you invest a fixed dollar amount every month, to average out your entry price. Although this reduces the downside associated with a sudden crash, it can also reduce profitability if most entry points fall on the high side.

It seems apparent that overall, the great majority of Bitcoin holders should be in profit. However, it can be argued that the majority of new investors appeared during the very height of the 2017 boom when trade volumes were highest. During this time, numerous investors entered based on hype when Bitcoin was well above $8,500, leaving these unfortunate few still in the red to this day.

 

That being said, since Bitcoin has already more than doubled its value since the beginning of the year, many are widely expecting that Bitcoin will continue its impressive growth, which should give some solace to those still left hanging.

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On ‎2‎/‎18‎/‎2020 at 10:38 AM, Villain The Foe said:

Instead of asking you for proof behind this statement, instead I'll accept your statement as true, and say this...

There are more people who lost a ton of money in the stock market than made money. 

The difference is? Crypto (not just bitcoin) have made folks wealthy with much less than 4K-15K over a much shorter period of time. I know folks who with a few hundred made 6+ figures just in 2017 alone. 

I know folks who purchased EOS at less than $2 in Dec. 2018 and sold it 6 months later in June 2019 at $8, making more than 4X their money in 6 months...not 10 years. 

To be fair, I also know folks who lost 90% value, or gained enormous gains only to not sell and lost it all. My point is that if you take your time you can make small amounts of money do big things for you. 

Bitcoin (1 project within the crypto space) may be dubious to you, and a 10 year old new piece of tech with no prior history and still no "professionals" in the space, it would be hard to argue against that term used...but blockchain as a technology with 1,000's of different crypto projects surely isnt dubious. Im not saying that 1,000's will survive, no, what im saying is that this is no different than the dot.com bubble that burst (you know how many people lost money in the stock market when that happened????), but out of that came some of the largest companies in human history, along with arguably the most important tech in human history when it came to freedom of education, choice, opportunity etc. The same tech that people looked at initially as dubious when they said "Wait...Electronic mail? O'really??? Is that what you internet double U double  U dot people are trying to sell as the future?". Remember those days? 

Read Warren Buffett and especially Peter Schiff if you want to see highly successful guys who's incorrect, yet very popular opinions over the years  regarding Bitcoin/Crypto kept folks from even trying to understand what they so easily criticize. I should know, as I was one of those folks listening to guys like Peter Schiff backing in 2011-14 because he kept pumping to me what I liked to hear instead of reserving judgement and only dealing with facts and due diligence...which is what 99% of these kind of folks don't do.  

To be fair...you're a CFP, which means that you probably get paid upfront whether you turn a profit or not. And if you do earn any profit you probably get to double dip as you also get a cut of that profit as well, depending on the contractual agreements. sh*t, I aint hating on you!  :thumbup: Managing large amounts of money and earning 3%-10% return a year is great nominal return. Folks who are dealing with a few hundred bucks, need a different avenue. 

There are folks who come from neighborhoods like mine who didnt have a need to even acquire a service like yours, let alone have the initial funds to invest. However, if you have an understanding of this space (which the internet is there for everyone, folks must stop wasting time on facebook and actually learn and study the space) you can get into anything you want because there is no barrier outside of just teaching yourself. You can literally work in this space and leave your old legacy job as I did.

I've stopped working for people in 2017 and I submit worker proposals to projects that may need my service. This crypto space has given me "my time back" because I dont have to give that time to some employer, helping to build "their" dream while he tells me when I must work, how long I will work, what days, when to take vacation, etc.. I'm currently learning Javascript and vue.js over the next couple months in order to submit another worker proposal in order to manage arbitration portals and find potential problems within code and accessing github's. 

Is it dubious? I'd rather use the word "risky". Then again, what isnt dubious in a world where "credit default swaps" exist? Special shout out to my girl Blythe Masters for creating that nonsense lol.  Are the rewards high and constant depending on how you operate in this space? Absolutely. You have to understand this space just like any other space. The difference? I can do these things myself and not have to depend on a CFP who's guaranteed payment whether he gain profits, busts or go sideways. 

As a side note, you said that you've not seen any professional advisor use Bitcoin. Well, there are quite a few newly licensed custodians such as Fidelity that are now in the crypto mix. You got Gemini, Founded by the Winklevoss twins of Facebook fame. As you may also know, I live in Germany and last week there was an article release where about 40 banks contacted Germany’s "Federal Financial Supervisory Authority" seeking to become regulated cryptocurrency custodians. 

This is bigger than bitcoin, and by the time folks realize it, we'll make sure to sell it to them...just like Warren Buffett does! :-) 

Love this response Villian. Very well thought out and articulated. Makes a lot of sense & is by no means condescending.

Gotta run, there's an all in buy alert happening on the Motley Fool site.

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