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Dunnie

Anyone buying stock this week ?

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Seems like a good time to jump in. Curious what you guys think.

 

 

 

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I'm sitting on cash.  Almost pulled the trigger a few times.  I thought we were headed for a recession before the virus struck.  I'm pretty sure there is going to be a wave of bankruptcies that will pull things a bit lower.  I might buy some large indexes at the end of the day if we see another big pullback.  I'm going to dollar cost average into this.  The bottom could be a long way off and the election will be in play right around the corner.  

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45 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

I can't think of a single reason to buy this week. We're nowhere near knowing where the floor is here. 

You won't know where the floor is until the floor is in the rear view mirror.  

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20 minutes ago, Biggs said:

You won't know where the floor is until the floor is in the rear view mirror.  

Bromides like that are fine and dandy, but I'd rather sit back though and watch this play out, rather then try to luck into buying near a floor. As bad as this week has been, we're where? Back to November of 19 levels?

I guess a lot depends on where you are financially, and what % of stocks you want to hold in your portfolio. I'm not quite at the age where I'm ready to decrease mine yet, but I'm not actively looking to add at this point either.

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My company recently went public.  But it doesn't sound like they're giving us a discount or stock options or anything like that.  Lame.  

Probably just gonna stick with my 401-k as my only investment vehicle for now.  

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9 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

Bromides like that are fine and dandy. 

I'd rather sit back though and watch this play out, rather then try to luck into buying near a floor. I guess a lot depends on where you are financially, and what % of stocks you want to hold in your portfolio. I'm not ready to decreasemine yet, but I'm not looking to add at this point either.

It's not a bromide.  If you believe like I do that most people in the world will get up in the morning and try to improve their lives, some of them so brilliant they will drag all of us forward, you should be investing in the future.  I do it through dollar cost averaging.  When there are sharp downturns dollar costing all the way down and all the way up produces returns that generally beat putting it under the mattress.  

Obviously your time horizon impacts how you allocate.  Since i'm a little older I've been overweight cash.  Now that 10 year yields are closing in on 1 percent, I think that by itself is a reason to shrink the cash pile and invest in stocks.  I will do it over time and probably start reallocating today incrementally.  

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43 minutes ago, Biggs said:

It's not a bromide.  If you believe like I do that most people in the world will get up in the morning and try to improve their lives, some of them so brilliant they will drag all of us forward, you should be investing in the future.  I do it through dollar cost averaging.  When there are sharp downturns dollar costing all the way down and all the way up produces returns that generally beat putting it under the mattress.  

Obviously your time horizon impacts how you allocate.  Since i'm a little older I've been overweight cash.  Now that 10 year yields are closing in on 1 percent, I think that by itself is a reason to shrink the cash pile and invest in stocks.  I will do it over time and probably start reallocating today incrementally.  

It sounds like our views are actually quite similar actually. Same age group, philosophy and general plan. Maybe I didn't explain myself clearly, but I was coming more from a place of answering the OP's question, which was "Should I buy stocks this week?" No, I don't.

Back to our situation? We are both sitting on a bit of cash, and pondering options. You see this as an opportunity to begin doing something today, I don't, but I see why you do. If I could advise people like the OP I'd tell them not to panic, and sell, but there's a time to be aggressive and there's a time to be passive. I'm choosing the latter.

To each their own, I wish you well.

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2 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

It sounds like our views are actually quite similar actually. Same age group, philosophy and general plan. Maybe I didn't explain myself clearly, but I was coming more from a place of answering the OP's question, which was "Should I buy stocks this week?" No, I don't.

Back to our situation? We are both sitting on a bit of cash, and pondering options. You see this as an opportunity to begin doing something today, I don't, but I see why you do. If I could advise people like the OP I'd tell them not to panic, and sell, but there's a time to be aggressive and there's a time to be passive. I'm choosing the latter.

To each their own, I wish you well.

That's fair.  FYI I just bought Vanguard growth fund index today.  The buy will be at the close today.  I do think we are likely to see a recession and earnings shrinking.   I also think the markets will be significantly higher 5 years out than they are today.  There are so many more middle class and highly educated people across the globe I just can't believe we will go backwards for very long.  

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I'm on  the sideline and actually looking to increase debt via a home equity loan. The fundementals of economy are sh*t, public debt is out of control and houshold debt just hit record high. This Corona virus is also a serious issue. My company is currently reviewing our business interruption insurance because we are seeing delays in getting products in from China and now per the CDC have to consider what might happen if our warehouse gets shut down.  It's not good.

Further, not to get political but the bern out being in the lead for the donkeys is no good for market either.

Debt + pandemic scare + socialist = not close to floor imo.

That being said. I've been saying this about the debt for 2+ years and missed out on a lot of gains so I look like an idiot as of today

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Investment guy advises waiting for a 20% drop and then buying up what you can. 

This is a killer virus. Sooner or later, something like this might just be the one that decimates mankind. So it makes perfect sense to invest heavily in a recovery, because if there isn't … 

Plus the folks here have special understanding why there will be a recovery and not a The Stand event. That will only happen in the two weeks before the Jets finally make the Super Bowl.

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46 minutes ago, The Crimson King said:

Investment guy advises waiting for a 20% drop and then buying up what you can. 

This is a killer virus. Sooner or later, something like this might just be the one that decimates mankind. So it makes perfect sense to invest heavily in a recovery, because if there isn't … 

Plus the folks here have special understanding why there will be a recovery and not a The Stand event. That will only happen in the two weeks before the Jets finally make the Super Bowl.

I'm hoping the virus shows seasonality like the flu. better than 50% chance based on what I'm seeing. By next year we'll have a better handle on vaccines We're only a decade or so away from not having to concern ourselves about such things. 

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Once again, the media and certain groups are capitalizing on a sensationalist take by creating a panic based on a statistically insignificant outbreak of a new strain of flu virus. Seems to happen every 5 years or so. The last one was when everyone in Florida was going to contract Zika. 

 

Similarly, we have over 400 cases of Leprosy a year in the US. Yes, Leprosy.  Nobody talks about it. TB and Hepatitis are constants, no panics. But 3 kids in California or.NY get Measles and people are in the streets with pitchforks and torches. Hell, how many people in India,  Indo, Malaysia  etc die of Malaria or Dysentery every year?

 

The point? Yes, Coronavirus is bad,  and China has a new flu strain, but only 3% of cases convert to a serious manifestation of symptoms,  87% of those who contract it have flu like symptoms and recover. 

 

Companies shut down manufacturing,  but for how long? A month? Big deal. We may not be at the floor, but no matter what sensationalist "journalists" scream at 6:30 tonight, or how certain agenda driven Pols may weaponize this, by July, this will be a "remember when....?" event. 

 

It's like Florida in a Hurricane Watch, I'm pretty sure Home Depot and Lowes are paying Meteorologists to overhype storms. LOL 

 

Bottom line, the market will bounce back like it always does, or the Army is digging mass graves like in the Stand. Either way, I might buy more Tesla if it drops down to where it was a couple of years ago. 

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57 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

Once again, the media and certain groups are capitalizing on a sensationalist take by creating a panic based on a statistically insignificant outbreak of a new strain of flu virus. Seems to happen every 5 years or so. The last one was when everyone in Florida was going to contract Zika. 

 

Similarly, we have over 400 cases of Leprosy a year in the US. Yes, Leprosy.  Nobody talks about it. TB and Hepatitis are constants, no panics. But 3 kids in California or.NY get Measles and people are in the streets with pitchforks and torches. Hell, how many people in India,  Indo, Malaysia  etc die of Malaria or Dysentery every year?

 

The point? Yes, Coronavirus is bad,  and China has a new flu strain, but only 3% of cases convert to a serious manifestation of symptoms,  87% of those who contract it have flu like symptoms and recover. 

 

Companies shut down manufacturing,  but for how long? A month? Big deal. We may not be at the floor, but no matter what sensationalist "journalists" scream at 6:30 tonight, or how certain agenda driven Pols may weaponize this, by July, this will be a "remember when....?" event. 

 

It's like Florida in a Hurricane Watch, I'm pretty sure Home Depot and Lowes are paying Meteorologists to overhype storms. LOL 

 

Bottom line, the market will bounce back like it always does, or the Army is digging mass graves like in the Stand. Either way, I might buy more Tesla if it drops down to where it was a couple of years ago. 

What sensational reporting?  Haven't seen it.  Pretty much under-reporting cases based on a lack of transparent data by any countries except South Korea.

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3 hours ago, The Crimson King said:

Investment guy advises waiting for a 20% drop and then buying up what you can. 

This is a killer virus. Sooner or later, something like this might just be the one that decimates mankind. So it makes perfect sense to invest heavily in a recovery, because if there isn't … 

Plus the folks here have special understanding why there will be a recovery and not a The Stand event. That will only happen in the two weeks before the Jets finally make the Super Bowl.

Thanks for lifting up my day. :)

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2 hours ago, Biggs said:

What sensational reporting?  Haven't seen it.  Pretty much under-reporting cases based on a lack of transparent data by any countries except South Korea.

It's literally the only topic on News networks and NIGHTLY News. LOL. 

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6 hours ago, The Crimson King said:

Investment guy advises waiting for a 20% drop and then buying up what you can. 

This is a killer virus. Sooner or later, something like this might just be the one that decimates mankind. So it makes perfect sense to invest heavily in a recovery, because if there isn't … 

Plus the folks here have special understanding why there will be a recovery and not a The Stand event. That will only happen in the two weeks before the Jets finally make the Super Bowl.

I'm trying to decide.....Vegas or Boulder? 

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7 hours ago, CTM said:

I'm on  the sideline and actually looking to increase debt via a home equity loan. The fundementals of economy are sh*t, public debt is out of control and houshold debt just hit record high. This Corona virus is also a serious issue. My company is currently reviewing our business interruption insurance because we are seeing delays in getting products in from China and now per the CDC have to consider what might happen if our warehouse gets shut down.  It's not good.

Further, not to get political but the bern out being in the lead for the donkeys is no good for market either.

Debt + pandemic scare + socialist = not close to floor imo.

That being said. I've been saying this about the debt for 2+ years and missed out on a lot of gains so I look like an idiot as of today

I don’t think the markets are done yet correcting either. We were already for awhile now outpacing traditional value investing metrics on a lot of stocks to begin with. 

we were also already on a downward trajectory between tariffs affecting manufacturing companies the previous few years but the markets not reflecting a fundamental loss of value for businesses. 

my company and many others i’ve had contacts with are getting hit hard with supply chain as well from chinese imports. Major trade shows are getting cancelled as well. It’s Going to get worse when earnings reports show the slowdown is killing expected revenues. I don’t think coronavirus was exactly priced in until now. 

My Inlaws cancelled a hawaii trip in April out of concerns and the airport company literally answered the phone: coronavirus? Yeah everyone is calling to cancel right now. 

That being said, if you have the savings, Stocks are getting more affordable now and if you dollar cost average it starting now, you really can’t go wrong imo as long as your horizon is not short term. 

 

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1 hour ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

That being said, if you have the savings, Stocks are getting more affordable now and if you dollar cost average it starting now, you really can’t go wrong imo as long as your horizon is not short term. 

I feel like it's got a lot further to drop. So much wrong with the economy 

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13 hours ago, Dunnie said:

 

Seems like a good time to jump in. Curious what you guys think.

 

 

 

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

 

 

 

Sure buy at a 5 year high... makes sense

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14 hours ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

It's literally the only topic on News networks and NIGHTLY News. LOL. 

It's spreading all over the country.  It should be on the news.  The number of cases is widely under reported.  There is nothing sensational about the reporting.  Real news is news.  If you choose to panic over facts that's your problem.  People with elderly family and children need information.  News is where you get it.  

Even the President held a prime time press conference.  

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16 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I don't F w/stock market outside 401k but if I did I'd be looking to increase my positions the first day the corona numbers go down instead of up.

Cases are starting to look like a traditional s curve which means slowing.

Plus likely to exhibit seasonality like the flu. Not definite, but likely 

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I sold out of the SDS (Ultra Short S&P ETF) today.  Wish I'd done it on Friday but still ahead after buying in last Tuesday as an overall market hedge.  This essentially goes up about 2-3% for every 1% drop in the S&P 500 but is also influenced by volatility (.VIX) so it went up about 23% for me over 5 days....while most/all of my long positions suffered.

I've held on to my long positions through this (and glad I did today) but used the above to cushion some of the fall.

Not quite sure where we go from here.  I think the Fed may come out with some type of rate easing statement and could lower rates by 50 basis points....but to me that might signal a little panic.  If they do that it would seem like a positive for long positions in the market but it could also signal some fear that there will be a real economic impact from coronavirus.  In other words, this bounce today may not last too long.  Perhaps a couple days.

I think we could be higher over the next couple of days and longterm we're probably higher in 9-12 months, but that time in between could be choppy if we continue to see supply chain disruptions and the PMI measurements coming out of China continue to crater.

Be a little bit hedged my friends.  Make sure you can sleep at night.

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On 2/28/2020 at 2:31 PM, Jet_Engine1 said:

Once again, the media and certain groups are capitalizing on a sensationalist take by creating a panic based on a statistically insignificant outbreak of a new strain of flu virus. Seems to happen every 5 years or so. The last one was when everyone in Florida was going to contract Zika. 

 

Similarly, we have over 400 cases of Leprosy a year in the US. Yes, Leprosy.  Nobody talks about it. TB and Hepatitis are constants, no panics. But 3 kids in California or.NY get Measles and people are in the streets with pitchforks and torches. Hell, how many people in India,  Indo, Malaysia  etc die of Malaria or Dysentery every year?

 

The point? Yes, Coronavirus is bad,  and China has a new flu strain, but only 3% of cases convert to a serious manifestation of symptoms,  87% of those who contract it have flu like symptoms and recover. 

 

Companies shut down manufacturing,  but for how long? A month? Big deal. We may not be at the floor, but no matter what sensationalist "journalists" scream at 6:30 tonight, or how certain agenda driven Pols may weaponize this, by July, this will be a "remember when....?" event. 

 

It's like Florida in a Hurricane Watch, I'm pretty sure Home Depot and Lowes are paying Meteorologists to overhype storms. LOL 

 

Bottom line, the market will bounce back like it always does, or the Army is digging mass graves like in the Stand. Either way, I might buy more Tesla if it drops down to where it was a couple of years ago. 

The actions of governments is the most terrifying thing.   China shut down their economy for a month.  Nobody does that for the flu. 
 

I think they are worried about how easy it is to transmit and the death rate which was initially showing 2-3 percent. 
 

China really needs to get back to work or we are going to have supply chain issues globally. 

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On 3/2/2020 at 8:51 PM, jetstream23 said:

I sold out of the SDS (Ultra Short S&P ETF) today.  Wish I'd done it on Friday but still ahead after buying in last Tuesday as an overall market hedge.  This essentially goes up about 2-3% for every 1% drop in the S&P 500 but is also influenced by volatility (.VIX) so it went up about 23% for me over 5 days....while most/all of my long positions suffered.

I've held on to my long positions through this (and glad I did today) but used the above to cushion some of the fall.

Not quite sure where we go from here.  I think the Fed may come out with some type of rate easing statement and could lower rates by 50 basis points....but to me that might signal a little panic.  If they do that it would seem like a positive for long positions in the market but it could also signal some fear that there will be a real economic impact from coronavirus.  In other words, this bounce today may not last too long.  Perhaps a couple days.

I think we could be higher over the next couple of days and longterm we're probably higher in 9-12 months, but that time in between could be choppy if we continue to see supply chain disruptions and the PMI measurements coming out of China continue to crater.

Be a little bit hedged my friends.  Make sure you can sleep at night.

Nailed the market reaction to the fed cut. 
 

best thing most people can do is refinance your mortgage. 

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Nailed the market reaction to the fed cut. 

 

best thing most people can do is refinance your mortgage. 

If I refinance ... Does that actually cut the overall interest over time ... I'm new to refinancing.

 

My current rate is around 4.25 .. I know I can get much lower.

 

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Dunnie said:

If I refinance ... Does that actually cut the overall interest over time ... I'm new to refinancing.

 

My current rate is around 4.25 .. I know I can get much lower.

 

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

 

 

 

Yes..basic math.  Try to NOT pay any closing costs but if your mortgage is say 100K, your not gonna save much.    Mistake I see many make is they REFI every 3-4 years.  20 years later their mortgage is as large as it was when they bought the house as they pull cash out each time.  Consider a 10 year or a 15 year and get out of debt .  I did and it is a VERY liberating feeling.  My mortgage was paid off at 50.  

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On 2/28/2020 at 1:22 PM, CTM said:

I'm hoping the virus shows seasonality like the flu. better than 50% chance based on what I'm seeing. By next year we'll have a better handle on vaccines We're only a decade or so away from not having to concern ourselves about such things. 

For now, I’m investing heavily in hand sanitizer and surgical mask. They literally removed Surgical mask from the doors of the hospitals here when people walk in to behind the nurses station so you have to ask for them. People were walking in and lifting them. Funny thing, those things are for the  people who come in with flu to keep them from spreading f it by coughing , not really going to stop anything. It’s a mad mad World. 

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