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Landing spots for Sam?


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Just now, Jets723 said:

It’s ok to disagree.  It’s pretty clear you think I’m totally wrong and that is fine.  I think I’ve been pretty fair in my assessment but the truth is neither of us know 

Totally fine to disagree. I like disagreement as I've already mentioned twice during this exchange. You're preaching to the choir.

I've also said that it's true none of us know. But we do have history and statistics to make a reasonable estimate as to the chances Darnold improves materially. My position is that the odds of it happening based on all of that and his career to date is low. I'll always grant that the unlikely can happen, however.

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You ever break up with a girl and then she suddenly seems appealing once she moves on and finds another boyfriend? That is what is going to happen with Darnold. He's not necessarily going to light it up, but he will land with a coach who teaches him how to manage the game. I'm sorry that is has to be this way Sam, but we have to let you find happiness with another guy, uh, team. I wish you some success, but not too much. 

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7 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

Well he is running for his life most of time. Does he miss some yes but let’s not act like he had all the time in the world ?.  Also there have been so many drops by his receivers especially in the end zone 

Jets are #22 in passes dropped. The narrative that this is the reason for Darnold's poor performance is way overblown. The far bigger problem is that Sam is not getting them the ball. Not that he is and they are dropping it.

http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

Also, again, everyone agrees that Sam is in a rough spot. Where we don't agree is that leads to the conclusion that he would be a good QB in better circumstances. It's much more likely that he is one of the dozens (hundreds?) of Deshon Kizers rather than the rare Steve Young/Drew Brees.

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Darnold might be better if he doesn’t have to think, which is something you say about a 1st year player, maybe second—not 4th. Anyway, I don’t really know who would want him at this point. Colts could make sense since we have a lot of connections and it would be a great spot for Darnold to land. If he ends up being back here next year, I just hope it is to compete at best. I lost faith in him. 

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Just now, jgb said:

Totally fine to disagree. I like disagreement as I've already mentioned twice during this exchange. You're preaching to the choir.

I've also said that it's true none of us know. But we do have history and statistics to make a reasonable estimate as to the chances Darnold improves materially. My position is that the odds of it happening based on all of that and his career to date is low. I'll always grant that the unlikely can happen, however.

But again you don’t take into account all the obstacles.  It’s not fair to say “he had been given every popularity To succeed but sucks”.  When your coaches in the NFL have been Todd Bowles and Adam Gase, your top weapon has been Crowder, and your oline has been Swiss cheese you ate t going to succeed.  That’s just a fact with any QB

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1 minute ago, Jets723 said:

But again you don’t take into account all the obstacles.  It’s not fair to say “he had been given every popularity To succeed but sucks”.  When your coaches in the NFL have been Todd Bowles and Adam Gase, your top weapon has been Crowder, and your oline has been Swiss cheese you ate t going to succeed.  That’s just a fact with any QB

I do take that into account. List me the QBs who were terrible statistically and then become good players in different circumstances. That list will be much shorter than the list of QBs who stunk on bad teams and continued to stink forever.

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Just now, jgb said:

I do take that into account. List me the QBs who were terrible statistically and then become good players in different circumstances. That list will be much shorter than the list of QBs who stunk on bad teams and continued to stink forever.

Forget Douglas you should be running the Jets.  With your psychic powers we will be winning the Super Bowl in no time ? 

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Just now, Jets723 said:

Forget Douglas you should be running the Jets.  With your psychic powers we will be winning the Super Bowl in no time ? 

The great thing about probabilities is that you don't need psychic powers to use them to make predictions.

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17 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Can't trade him if he's a FA.  I see no way we would be taking the 5th year option so this upcoming season is the last under contract.  At least that's my current understanding.  We could trade him mid-season before the deadline I suppose but his value would probably be lower then as opposed to before the season.

What is the date on his 5th option I guess would be the question. I'm sure if traded it would only be under the agreement that he signs a new contract with the team that wants him. He hasn't played like a 25 million dollar QB so to keep his career going he's going to have to be open to renegotiation. 

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1 minute ago, Jetster said:

What is the date on his 5th option I guess would be the question. I'm sure if traded it would only be under the agreement that he signs a new contract with the team that wants him. He hasn't played like a 25 million dollar QB so to keep his career going he's going to have to be open to renegotiation. 

3 or 4 May. He'll be traded with his current deal. No other team is going to extend him based on his body of work without getting a look see.

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15 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

It's hard to know what the market looks like for Sam but I think there will be at least one GM who loved him coming out in 2018 and thinks he can salvage him.

Move him to the highest bidder and move on.

I agree. Gase offensive scheme looked like a high school offense to me. And Herndon & Perriman looked they run lazy azz routes & didn't want to be there half the time & Gore was our starting RB, and Mims was rookie who missed basically all of camp. Show me another team in the NFL that can match that ineptitude! Crowder had a damn good season based on how little offensive series this team had leading the league in 3 & outs with a sieve defense to boot! Oh, by the way, Crowder is a good veteran proven NFL player. I'd say we need a few more of those going forward so we can help out whoever our QB turns out to be. 

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1 minute ago, Jets723 said:

I thought we were just having a normal conversation  even a debate ? 

"Debate" does not signify animus or aggression. It's a conversation where each side has differing views. The word you are thinking of is "argument." Oh now I've done it, let you suck me into a semantic debate! 

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Just now, jgb said:

Debate does not signify animus or aggression. It's a conversation where each side has differing views. Oh now I've done it, let you suck me into a semantic debate! 

There was no aggression.  I was very nice and even said I respected your stance.  That’s the opposite of aggression or anger ? 

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Pittsburgh would be committing a felony if they didn’t at least acquire about Darnnit. Ben Worthlessberger is washed up and I think Sam could be serviceable in that short passing system. Now the deep stuff he will blow, fans will hate him but idk I lie the fit. 

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Just now, oatmeal said:

Pittsburgh would be committing a felony if they didn’t at least acquire about Darnnit. Ben Worthlessberger is washed up and I think Sam could be serviceable in that short passing system. Now the deep stuff he will blow, fans will hate him but idk I lie the fit. 

Sam's long game is more fixable than his short game. Deep shots are generally one-read plays.

 

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27 minutes ago, jgb said:

Totally fine to disagree. I like disagreement as I've already mentioned twice during this exchange. You're preaching to the choir.

I've also said that it's true none of us know. But we do have history and statistics to make a reasonable estimate as to the chances Darnold improves materially. My position is that the odds of it happening based on all of that and his career to date is low. I'll always grant that the unlikely can happen, however.

At the end of the day we are both Jet fans and just want what’s best for the organization.  I think things got misinterpreted in these posts On both sides but you seem like a good guy and are knowledgeable.  Good talking to you and Let’s go Jets!!!

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49ers - back to the west coast, Shanahan system with strong RBs, NFC, would likely get their 2nd rounder since they have no 3rd or we could try to swing a trade up to their first round pick from #23

Colts - I still think they are the team that gets Carson Wentz but Reich could mold Sam into a Wentz esc QB. They have a strong foundation in place, would reunite Sam with Pittman, and a QB in Rivers that has 1 year left at most.

Saints - Another NFC team, they are $90m over the cap and Brees is likely retiring. They have a few players on big contracts that I'd gladly take of their hands to free up cap - RT Ryan Ramczyk or CB Marshon Lattimore are both entering the final years of their deals and are areas of need for the Jets.

Steelers - I don't love this route as that is a stronger opponent in the AFC but with Big Ben nearing his end I could see it. We'd likely just get a draft pick from them but they at tight against the cap as well so they may want to unload a contract or 2

Bears/Washington - both are definitely options but Hienke and Trubisky could be seen as better options than giving up a higher pick for Sam who is just as much of a gamble

Texans - if we trade them for Watson otherwise they draft Fields/Wilson

Jets - this seems the most realistic if we are not getting good trade value right now. Remember Joe Douglas was on the Eagles when they waited to trade Sam Bradford to the Vikings after Teddy went down and got a first for it. That said Douglas was not on staff for when they traded up for Wentz and ultimately picked him so we don't really know what he'd do given similar situations. Assuming Douglas was fine with the move since he took the job, I could see them wanting to wait.

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4 hours ago, Jetster said:

I was just thinking about this yesterday. Watching Big Ben sitting by himself (was he thinking retirement?), Brees (They have no money), Rivers (I don't think he comes back), Niners (Cali Boy heads home?), Chicago? They looked completely out of sync. 

Why couldn't we trade him next off season? For 9.5 million they get to see if he can turn it around with better players at the skill positions & a new offensive scheme? (I can't remember seeing such a terribly boring offense). 

Even if they take a QB JD & the Jets might keep him. If someone could explain to me the ramifications of keeping him & trading him at the end of his 4th year. Just because he's supposed to get 25 million, if he's traded doesn't the team trading for him get to renegotiate with him? Obviously he hasn't played like a top 12 QB, so no one is giving him top 12 QB money. 

Your points are all right where we can keep him for the 4th year to see what he can do for <10M. The biggest question then is or mistake that it would be is to pass on q QB in Fields/Wilson with the 2nd pick just because you don't want to let Sam go for less draft capital than you want. If we want to do this I would say have Fields/Wilson battle it out for the job with Sam and if the draft pick beats him out you trade Sam either during camp/preseason or prior to the 2021 trade deadline all time periods when a QB injury on another team would increase his draft value. We do this and we still have over 70M for FAs this year and 5 more picks (1, 2, 3A, 3B, 4) in the top 100 to build a good enough O for the QB even if we cannot add much on D for this season i.e maybe between 1 of those draft picks mentioned and the remaining 2 5ths and 7th get CB/Edge even if they are not top blue chip players. At least 4 draft picks in the top 100 have to be OL, WR, RB, etc.  

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