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Rodgers to the Jets - Support it, or Oppose it?


Do you support the Jets Possible/Pending Acquisition of Aaron Rodgers?  

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  1. 1. Do you support the Jets Possible/Pending Acquisition of Aaron Rodgers?



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49 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Be assured, the Jets Defense IS NOT as good as everyone thinks.

It's solid, it is NOT elite/top 10.

Our top finish in 2022 was very much about who we played, i.e. like half our games were against #2 and #3 QB's.

In reality, we're likely more of a 12-15 type Defense, before this offseason gains/losses get considered.

What are you talking about?  They kept Josh Allen in check twice and held a red hot Lions team to 1 td  for 59 minutes. 

They are most certainly a top 5 defense who will likely be better this year with improved play from the safeties and finally having an above average offense 

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5 minutes ago, bitonti said:

what if it's not a down year, what if it's the start of a steep decline? this age is exactly when it happens 

If it's the start of a steep decline, he and we won't do very well, and Rodgers likely retires at year end, and we move on. 

One more year lost, with some lingering cap wounds to bear going forward.

5 minutes ago, bitonti said:

you expect Rodgers' numbers to go up as he gets older - a Vinny T situation as it were?

it's theoretically possible but a lot to expect 

what are the odds he actually gets better as he gets older? 

I don't expect him to get better.  I expect, and project, him to decline somewhat.

My evaluation is he had a down year in 2022 primarily due to injury and supporting cast.

His injury should heal, his cast will be better, and I believe his motivation will be higher.

And yet I still think he'll produce less than he did in 2017-2021.  But yes, a bit more than he produced (not by a ton) in 2022.

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10 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Rodgers produced 64.6% comp. rate, 3,695 passing yards, 26 TD's to 12 INT's and a 91.1 QB Rating last year, starting all 17 of his teams games.

In a down year, with a thumb injury, and a pretty weak roster of O-skill players overall.

In the four seasons prior, 4,442 and 25/2, 4,002 and 26/4, 4,299 and 48/5 and 4,115 and 37/4.

For reference, Zach Wilson had a 54.5% comp rate, 1,688 passing yards, 6 TD's to 7 INT's and a 72.8 QB rating last year, playing in only 9 games due to injury and ineffectiveness.  

I don't believe in saviors. 

I DO believe in the material difference that adequate, pro-level QB performance and production make for an NFL team, especially a team that has not really had it for over a decade, at least. 

Am I expecting Rodgers to give us 4,200 and a 40/5 type season?  Nope.  Be cool if he did, but nope.

I expect something closer to 3,800 yards and 30/10.  A pretty meh year for Rodgers, career-wise.

But the difference between what we've had and that is massive, will open up the rushing game, will save the Defense a ton of time on the field (making them better, fresher), and will (I'd wager) involve alot more clutch throws at vital moments than we got under Zach.  Or Darnold.  Or Geno.  Or Sanchez.  Or McCown.  Etc.

We don't need a savior.  We need competence, and to keep building the overall team talent.

I hope you’re right, but I would argue that the Jets only have Garrett Wilson and they just signed one of those “weak” Green Bay wrs. The guy’s a great qb, I don’t begrudge anyone’s desire to see competent qb play, but I don’t see it amounting to anything when you start to realize that the guy is getting older and injuries don’t just go away anymore. Now put that guy on a team that has consistently been one of the most injured teams for years, and the numbers start to mean less and less, at least to me. 
 

You don’t need a savior— you’re way too level headed for that— but look around. People are talking about a Lombardi. It ain’t happening. The team wasn’t one player away. Even AR isn’t going to put this team over the hump and it will cost the team a ton for the honor. 
 

Anyway, agree to disagree. 
 

 

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Just now, bitonti said:

lol you're one of the optimists, right? 

star wars hate GIF

No, I'm a realist.

We MIGHT have a small window of success here. Breece, AVT, Sauce, Garrett fell in our laps. But some day REALLY SOON, they're all going to want to get paid. At the same time. Window slammed shut. 

The only franchises that can overcome those kind of losses are the ones with Mahomes or Burrow at the helm. The Jets are absolutely incapable of possessing a Mahomes or Burrow. Ever. 

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14 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Everyone understands the importance of a franchise QB 

the question is Rodgers still a franchise QB gets breezed right by, because it's uncomfortable to think about

people say the Jets just need an average QB to compete but at 60 mil per the juice isn't worth the squeeze 

 

He was arguably the 3rd best QB in his division last year.  He would have been the 2nd best in our division last year.   We don't know what he's going to cost us.   60 million per not likely.  

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2 hours ago, Biggs said:

There's overpaying and there's being raped.  You can tell by the reaction of the Jets players that getting Rodgers is already having an impact on the entire team.  Guys are actually pumped up to play football.  They are working hard and are likely going to come in a very united team.  Last year the loss in value by having a divided locker and a HC without the experience to handle it cost us games.  

We should get the deal done and if it costs us a reasonable amount more than hard ball value, I really don't see the downside.

The real downside is not the value of the deal but the performance of Rodgers because of age or not really being all in.

The downside is the Jets and Rodgers bungled the situation where they held every single card in the deck and are thus forced to over pay.

If Rodgers comes in and the jets are awesome then the compensation will be accepted, if he comes in and the jets fail or he gets hurt then that issue will rear it's head.  As it should.

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6 minutes ago, JetPotato said:

No, I'm a realist.

We MIGHT have a small window of success here. Breece, AVT, Sauce, Garrett fell in our laps. But some day REALLY SOON, they're all going to want to get paid. At the same time. Window slammed shut. 

The only franchises that can overcome those kind of losses are the ones with Mahomes or Burrow at the helm. The Jets are absolutely incapable of possessing a Mahomes or Burrow. Ever. 

For what it's worth teams pay their stars. Teams like the Eagles (low cost QB) can pay 10 of em at a time. 

As for Mahomes or Burrow, maybe not, but there is another way, the Lamar Jackson/Jalen Hurts end of rd1/rd 2 model. or the SFO/Bill Walsh draft one every year model. 

this Rodgers thing is a coinflip at best - the coinflip being is he declined, or can he still be the same player he was five years ago?  

maybe 60 mil is worth a coinflip. I don't agree personally but I see the twisted logic 

my gut says the Zach pick put this whole regime at risk, and now they are mortgaging the future to save their jobs. There's no amount of Sauce or Garrett that can overcome missing that bad at QB 

 

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2 hours ago, johnnysd said:

There is no upside with Rodgers just a single roll of the roulette wheel with all of our money on 12

He’ll be easily the best QB we’ve had since Namath.  He gives the team a chance for whatever goal you set.  It’s Rodgers, not a ball on the roulette wheel. 

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20 minutes ago, Pac said:

What are you talking about?  They kept Josh Allen in check twice and held a red hot Lions team to 1 td  for 59 minutes. 

They are most certainly a top 5 defense who will likely be better this year with improved play from the safeties and finally having an above average offense 

Josh Allen played hurt in both games.

The Lions was a good game, yes.

So far all we've done is lose players, we have gained one meh Safety to replace another meh Safety we haven't cut yet.

Very much TBD is we improve on D, although I certainly hope we do.

Look, they finished 4th overall.  That's top 10, and you are what you're record says you are till shown otherwise.

But I wouldn't discount how many bad O's and backup/developmental QB's we played against when looking at season-long stats and projecting into the next season.

 

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3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Josh Allen played hurt in both games.

The Lions was a good game, yes.

So far all we've done is lose players, we have gained one meh Safety to replace another meh Safety we haven't cut yet.

Very much TBD is we improve on D, although I certainly hope we do.

Look, they finished 4th overall.  That's top 10, and you are what you're record says you are till shown otherwise.

But I wouldn't discount how many bad O's and backup/developmental QB's we played against when looking at season-long stats and projecting into the next season.

 

It's important to note that the defense finished 4th overall despite the fact that the Jets offense went 3-and-out about 99.83% of the time and that they were almost always playing from behind, hindering their ability to be as aggressive as they wanted to be on defense (while opposing offenses could avoid high risk plays).

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18 minutes ago, the Claw said:

I hope you’re right, but I would argue that the Jets only have Garrett Wilson and they just signed one of those “weak” Green Bay wrs.

I think we continue to undervalue E. Moore's talent and potential because he was a childish brat last year, and was in both Zach and MLF's doghouse much of the season.  I very expect him to produce this year.

And Lazard is not star, but he's > than Davis has been with us, and he's a MUCH better blocker, which should help Hall and Co. in the running game.  He's also a much better red-zone option than Davis or lolMims has been.

18 minutes ago, the Claw said:

The guy’s a great qb, I don’t begrudge anyone’s desire to see competent qb play, but I don’t see it amounting to anything when you start to realize that the guy is getting older and injuries don’t just go away anymore.

What does "amount to anything" mean?

If it means "Super Bowl win", yeah, you're almost assuredly 100% right.

If it means "materially better and more productive QB play than what we've has since 2010", I think you're wrong, even in an almost worse-case.

18 minutes ago, the Claw said:

Now put that guy on a team that has consistently been one of the most injured teams for years, and the numbers start to mean less and less, at least to me.

Injuries remain our biggest and most painful risk, universally, I agree 100%.

18 minutes ago, the Claw said:

 You don’t need a savior— you’re way too level headed for that— but look around. People are talking about a Lombardi. It ain’t happening.

A little sunny optimism in March is no sin :)

Of course it's probably not happening, but I, for one, will be excited to see how it looks on opening day this year if we do acquire him.  Legit excited, in a way Zach Wilson and Sam Darnold never, ever inspired.

So at least there is that, lol.

18 minutes ago, the Claw said:

The team wasn’t one player away. Even AR isn’t going to put this team over the hump and it will cost the team a ton for the honor. 

Anyway, agree to disagree. 

It's going to cost cap, I'm hopeful the draft capital wound isn't too horrid, but TBD.

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Rodgers produced 64.6% comp. rate, 3,695 passing yards, 26 TD's to 12 INT's and a 91.1 QB Rating last year, starting all 17 of his teams games.

In a down year, with a thumb injury, and a pretty weak roster of O-skill players overall.

In the four seasons prior, 4,442 and 25/2, 4,002 and 26/4, 4,299 and 48/5 and 4,115 and 37/4.

For reference, Zach Wilson had a 54.5% comp rate, 1,688 passing yards, 6 TD's to 7 INT's and a 72.8 QB rating last year, playing in only 9 games due to injury and ineffectiveness.  

I don't believe in saviors. 

I DO believe in the material difference that adequate, pro-level QB performance and production make for an NFL team, especially a team that has not really had it for over a decade, at least. 

Am I expecting Rodgers to give us 4,200 and a 40/5 type season?  Nope.  Be cool if he did, but nope.

I expect something closer to 3,800 yards and 30/10.  A pretty meh year for Rodgers, career-wise.

But the difference between what we've had and that is massive, will open up the rushing game, will save the Defense a ton of time on the field (making them better, fresher), and will (I'd wager) involve alot more clutch throws at vital moments than we got under Zach.  Or Darnold.  Or Geno.  Or Sanchez.  Or McCown.  Etc.

We don't need a savior.  We need competence, and to keep building the overall team talent.

The problem with this argument is that we very likely get ONE year of that QB play and then in the same position next year only with less draft picks, maybe a player and a $60 million deap cap hit. Are people really that impatient that they don't care about the long term effect at all?

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7 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Probably.

What is the long term effect you think this causes, specifically?

Well you face $60 million in dead cap either all next year or over 2024 and 2025. This does limit what you can do with your roster regardless of how much you can massage the cap.

You have less draft picks, probably decently high ones so you have affected your core.

You have no real solution for QB in 2024 unless Rodgers tutelage makes Zach what we thought he was.

Even though we should, we are unlikely to draft a QB in the 2023 draft especially since we have less picks to begin with and need as strong a roster as possible for the one year Rodgers playoff run. 

If we somehow still miss the playoffs or are a quick one and done ( probably more likely than deep playoff run) Woody will fire everyone and we start completely over and the window becomes 3-5 years again.

It is just not the route I would go. I don't see the situation the same as when Favre came here for a year.

 

 

 

 

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36 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I think we continue to undervalue E. Moore's talent and potential because he was a childish brat last year, and was in both Zach and MLF's doghouse much of the season.  I very expect him to produce this year.

And Lazard is not star, but he's > than Davis has been with us, and he's a MUCH better blocker, which should help Hall and Co. in the running game.  He's also a much better red-zone option than Davis or lolMims has been.

What does "amount to anything" mean?

If it means "Super Bowl win", yeah, you're almost assuredly 100% right.

If it means "materially better and more productive QB play than what we've has since 2010", I think you're wrong, even in an almost worse-case.

Injuries remain our biggest and most painful risk, universally, I agree 100%.

A little sunny optimism in March is no sin :)

Of course it's probably not happening, but I, for one, will be excited to see how it looks on opening day this year if we do acquire him.  Legit excited, in a way Zach Wilson and Sam Darnold never, ever inspired.

So at least there is that, lol.

It's going to cost cap, I'm hopeful the draft capital wound isn't too horrid, but TBD.

yeah, see I think that Moore is valued exactly where he should be. So far he brings as much to the table as Mims: not much. 
 

I place Lazard at the same level as Davis, maybe a little better (def a better blocker, youre totally right there) but all in all he’s a jag. 
 

By “amount to anything” I mean marked improvement. I don’t think this addition is going to bring a big improvement in record, especially if the team loses high draft picks. There will definitely be better qb performance (hard not to be) but I don’t see it lasting or equating to wins because the rest of the team is still not there, especially the unit who’s job it is to protect the new qb. 
 

I certainly appreciate the optimism but I don’t get it. Good stuff just doesnt happen to this team and I dont see that stopping now. The team just isnt ready for the cherry-on-top guy. I think they’ll regret this move. Even more if they trade high picks. Considering this is basically decreed by Woody makes it even worse. If they retain their high picks I might be a little more optimistic, but I think AR will just be too expensive. 

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Just now, johnnysd said:

Well you face $60 million in dead cap either all next year or over 2024 and 2025. This does limit what you can do with your roster regardless of how much you can massage the cap.

It certainly limits signing a FA QB, or spending on expensive FA veterans, yes.

Just now, johnnysd said:

You have less draft picks, probably decently high ones so you have affected your core.

TBD.  Not going to presume anything till I see the final deal, given all the varying speculations.

With that said, one pick does not make or break you.

Just now, johnnysd said:

You have no real solution for QB in 2024 unless Rodgers tutelage makes Zach what we thought he was.

I believe that is what JD would like to see happen.

More, it buys JD time to find a solution to the QB problem. 

Time he wouldn't have if we suck at QB again in 2023.

Just now, johnnysd said:

Even though we should, we are unlikely to draft a QB in the 2023 draft especially since we have less picks to begin with and need as strong a roster as possible for the one year Rodgers playoff run. 

Why should we?  This is a weak draft class, and we're in a weak spot to get a top guy.  Drafting a new starter was never in the cards this year.

We may still draft a developmental QB late in the draft, but this deal makes no difference to that.

Just now, johnnysd said:

If we somehow still miss the playoffs or are a quick one and done ( probably more likely than deep playoff run) Woody will fire everyone and we start completely over and the window becomes 3-5 years again.

I don't believe that Woody will fire anyone if we make the playoffs.

If we don't, Woody was going to fire anyone anyway.

Just now, johnnysd said:

It is just not the route I would go. I don't see the situation the same as when Favre came here for a year.

Favre was working out pretty well till he got hurt.  What was he, 8-3 if I recall, when he got hurt and Mangini couldn't pull him?

To be clear, it's probably not the route I'd have gone either, but it is what it is.  No point worrying, we can't change it, nor would I honestly.  We'll just have to see how it plays out, but declaring doom in March just seem a tad....hyperbolic, to me.  

It has risks, absolutely.  But it has possible major gains too.  

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1 hour ago, bitonti said:

For what it's worth teams pay their stars. Teams like the Eagles (low cost QB) can pay 10 of em at a time. 

As for Mahomes or Burrow, maybe not, but there is another way, the Lamar Jackson/Jalen Hurts end of rd1/rd 2 model. or the SFO/Bill Walsh draft one every year model. 

this Rodgers thing is a coinflip at best - the coinflip being is he declined, or can he still be the same player he was five years ago?  

maybe 60 mil is worth a coinflip. I don't agree personally but I see the twisted logic 

my gut says the Zach pick put this whole regime at risk, and now they are mortgaging the future to save their jobs. There's no amount of Sauce or Garrett that can overcome missing that bad at QB 

 

that's the only argument against rodgers - he's most likely good but not worth $60MM.

I still don't get your wishy washy - on one hand you say QB1 is a owner level decision but other times you say they are mortgaging the future to save their jobs.   

do you still think a deal doesn't happen?  

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2 hours ago, Warfish said:

Be assured, the Jets Defense IS NOT as good as everyone thinks.

It's solid, it is NOT elite/top 10.

Our top finish in 2022 was very much about who we played, i.e. like half our games were against #2 and #3 QB's.

In reality, we're likely more of a 12-15 type Defense, before this offseason gains/losses get considered.

I'm pretty sure we finished 4th in DVOA, which adjusts for opponent. Didn't play a murderers row of opponents but our defense was definitely legit and top ten by virtually any metric you can come up with.

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16 minutes ago, the Claw said:

yeah, see I think that Moore is valued exactly where he should be. So far he brings as much to the table as Mims: not much.

Agree to disagree, but regardless, it's on Moore to show us who he really is this year, either way.

16 minutes ago, the Claw said:

I place Lazard at the same level as Davis, maybe a little better (def a better blocker, youre totally right there) but all in all he’s a jag. 

He's a #3. In that role, I think he's fine.

As a #1 he's definitely a JAG, except perhaps as a blocker.

16 minutes ago, the Claw said:

By “amount to anything” I mean marked improvement. I don’t think this addition is going to bring a big improvement in record

It'd be hard to see a big improvement in QB production and efficiency not having a positive result in record tbqh, but we'd just have to wait and see I suppose.

16 minutes ago, the Claw said:

There will definitely be better qb performance (hard not to be) but I don’t see it lasting or equating to wins because the rest of the team is still not there, especially the unit who’s job it is to protect the new qb.

There or not, better QB play in 2022 and we'd have been in the playoffs and a tough out once there.  The QB killed us repeatedly in key moments, but very rarely was the cause of our wins.

Why that wouldn't be the case in 2023, I guess I'm not seeing it.

16 minutes ago, the Claw said:

I certainly appreciate the optimism but I don’t get it. Good stuff just doesnt happen to this team and I dont see that stopping now.

The "we're cursed" worldview.

16 minutes ago, the Claw said:

The team just isnt ready for the cherry-on-top guy. I think they’ll regret this move. Even more if they trade high picks. Considering this is basically decreed by Woody makes it even worse. If they retain their high picks I might be a little more optimistic, but I think AR will just be too expensive. 

I too hope we don't give away too much draft capital.  And no question AR is expensive.

Just not sure the alternative options (massive overpay for Lamar than Balt. would likely just match, going all-in on Carr, a secondary tier guy like Mayfield or that ilk, trading up to draft a guy in this weak class, or sticking with Zach) would have been a better option.

Quick question, are you more or less interested to watch us play in 2023 with Rodgers, or with Zach starting?

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9 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I'm pretty sure we finished 4th in DVOA, which adjusts for opponent. Didn't play a murderers row of opponents but our defense was definitely legit and top ten by virtually any metric you can come up with.

/shrug not a hill I plan to die on, rhetorically, but I guess we'll see in 2023.

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27 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Agree to disagree, but regardless, it's on Moore to show us who he really is this year, either way.

He's a #3. In that role, I think he's fine.

As a #1 he's definitely a JAG, except perhaps as a blocker.

It'd be hard to see a big improvement in QB production and efficiency not having a positive result in record tbqh, but we'd just have to wait and see I suppose.

There or not, better QB play in 2022 and we'd have been in the playoffs and a tough out once there.  The QB killed us repeatedly in key moments, but very rarely was the cause of our wins.

Why that wouldn't be the case in 2023, I guess I'm not seeing it.

The "we're cursed" worldview.

I too hope we don't give away too much draft capital.  And no question AR is expensive.

Just not sure the alternative options (massive overpay for Lamar than Balt. would likely just match, going all-in on Carr, a secondary tier guy like Mayfield or that ilk, trading up to draft a guy in this weak class, or sticking with Zach) would have been a better option.

Quick question, are you more or less interested to watch us play in 2023 with Rodgers, or with Zach starting?

I never wanted Wilson in the first place, so for sure it will be more entertaining with Rogers at qb. Until the wheels come off. Which they will. For the record I dont think the Jets are “cursed.” I think the team is run by buffoons. JD has been moving in a direction I prefer, but his record is spotty thus far. I would just rather see the team continue to build through the draft and plug holes through FA. 

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1 hour ago, the Claw said:

I never wanted Wilson in the first place, so for sure it will be more entertaining with Rogers at qb. Until the wheels come off. Which they will. For the record I dont think the Jets are “cursed.” I think the team is run by buffoons. JD has been moving in a direction I prefer, but his record is spotty thus far. I would just rather see the team continue to build through the draft and plug holes through FA. 

I feel ya brosef.

All you can really do, end of the day, is hope for the best.

I'm as cynical and bitter as anyone, hell I get Eeyore pics posted at me regularly, lol.

This time, for now at least, if it happens, I'm just gonna try and enjoy it.

At least it isn't Zach Wilson, it'll be glorious, gloriously good, or gloriously train wrecky, lol.

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I feel ya brosef.
All you can really do, end of the day, is hope for the best.
I'm as cynical and bitter as anyone, hell I get Eeyore pics posted at me regularly, lol.
This time, for now at least, if it happens, I'm just gonna try and enjoy it.
At least it isn't Zach Wilson, it'll be glorious, gloriously good, or gloriously train wrecky, lol.
Bask in the sun now Fish .. cause Zach will surface again ... Oh yes he will surface again ... Mwahahahahah

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk


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2 hours ago, Warfish said:

I feel ya brosef.

All you can really do, end of the day, is hope for the best.

I'm as cynical and bitter as anyone, hell I get Eeyore pics posted at me regularly, lol.

This time, for now at least, if it happens, I'm just gonna try and enjoy it.

At least it isn't Zach Wilson, it'll be glorious, gloriously good, or gloriously train wrecky, lol.

Come September I’m sure I’ll be excited, but for now I just can’t manage it. This time of the year I’m usually all over the draft class and researching players, but this offseason has just been one big meh sandwich. ? At least Aussie Rules is starting back up this week, so I got that to look forward to!

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