OT: Jets Writer Connor Hughes can’t find a home with $600K budget

[TuscanyTile2]

1 hour ago, Biggs said:

The fed has been reducing it's balance sheet and raising rates.  They are reducing the money supply during this cycle.  

How much has the Fed reduced its balance sheet by?  We have over $30T in debt with rising interest rates.  There's no way these 2 things can continue without us defaulting on our debt or having the government not pay their obligations (e.g. social security and medicare).  It's almost inconceivable that the latter will happen (is our government really going to tell its citizens that they can't get their checks because we need to pay higher debt service to foreign countries.  Or is our government just going to push the Fed to print more money).

[CanadaSteve]

19 hours ago, Warfish said:

Best of luck with your "new idea".

Not actually my new idea Fish.  History hasn't faired well with dynasties, yet they all arrogantly proclaim theirs will be the one to stand.  The U.S. will be no different.

Shocking really, given your public political stance on many things.  But, I get it...no politics.  So that will be the end of that.  

[CanadaSteve]

19 hours ago, Matt39 said:

the majority of the USA is still "affordable." 

Sorry, you forgot a couple of air quotes there.  Fixed that for you.  Maine and Iowa have some of the most "affordable" housing in the USA, if you think a quarter of a million dollars is "affordable."

Again, this will only lead to politics, and we can't discuss that 8-letter word here.  Feel free to message me if you wish to. 

[Warfish]

23 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

Not actually my new idea Fish.  History hasn't faired well with dynasties, yet they all arrogantly proclaim theirs will be the one to stand.  The U.S. will be no different.

I'm sure.  But "when" is the question, and "after I'm long gone" the likely answer.

Although our political class is certainly doing everything possible to hasten the coming of that day, sadly.

23 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

Shocking really, given your public political stance on many things.  But, I get it...no politics.  So that will be the end of that.  

I'm always happy to brush up against those rules, especially on economic issues (where system discussion isn't really politics, but politics adjacent).

But if you're predicting a move away from market capitalism in our current mixed economy, that's would be a huge change, against a very strong entrenched power class and interest group, and would need an equally huge supporting argument to make, that's all.  

[batman10023]

1 hour ago, southparkcpa said:

Please find me just 1 young congress person that voted against raising the debt ceiling. There are a small number who did. 2 percent of all congressman voted against the debt ceiling increase. It's not boomers.  

the debt ceiling is just noise.  it will always get raised and everyone knows it.

look at the federal deficit the boomers have left this country.  

[Matt39]

12 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

Sorry, you forgot a couple of air quotes there.  Fixed that for you.  Maine and Iowa have some of the most "affordable" housing in the USA, if you think a quarter of a million dollars is "affordable."

Again, this will only lead to politics, and we can't discuss that 8-letter word here.  Feel free to message me if you wish to. 

I guess it would depend on what your definition of affordable is. 250k for a married couple seems to fit the criteria. Maybe a bit high. But there is plenty of inventory in that 200-250 range throughout the country.

[southparkcpa]

56 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

the debt ceiling is just noise.  it will always get raised and everyone knows it.

look at the federal deficit the boomers have left this country.  

Raising the debt ceiling is step one  to the federal deficit.  

Just noise???  It’s statutorily set. One day someone will stop buying our debt and it wont matter.

The younger lawmakers as bigger whores than the boomers. They spend uncontrollably.  The  U.S. Debt has doubled in last 15 years.  I dont disagree with you , I’m simply saying it is getting worse and the younger generation of congress is drunk on the spending.  

[southparkcpa]

2 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

How much has the Fed reduced its balance sheet by?  We have over $30T in debt with rising interest rates.  There's no way these 2 things can continue without us defaulting on our debt or having the government not pay their obligations (e.g. social security and medicare).  It's almost inconceivable that the latter will happen (is our government really going to tell its citizens that they can't get their checks because we need to pay higher debt service to foreign countries.  Or is our government just going to push the Fed to print more money).

THIS. One day, someone is gonna stop buying our debt.  It’s the equivalent of a family earning 10K a month and spending 15K a month.  It must stop at some point. 

[Biggs]

2 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

How much has the Fed reduced its balance sheet by?  We have over $30T in debt with rising interest rates.  There's no way these 2 things can continue without us defaulting on our debt or having the government not pay their obligations (e.g. social security and medicare).  It's almost inconceivable that the latter will happen (is our government really going to tell its citizens that they can't get their checks because we need to pay higher debt service to foreign countries.  Or is our government just going to push the Fed to print more money).

Yet as we speak real stuff is deflating at a very rapid rate.  

[TuscanyTile2]

2 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

THIS. One day, someone is gonna stop buying our debt.  It’s the equivalent of a family earning 10K a month and spending 15K a month.  It must stop at some point. 

The Fed will likely just print the difference and we'll have hyperinflation.

[nj meadowlands]

So what's the consensus, fam?  Bubble or no bubble?  I've been sitting on the sideline but not willing to buy some overvalued house I don't love (at a high interest rate, no less) just to see the value get eviscerated.  Happy to keep paying NYC rents instead of that.

[Warfish]

18 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

THIS. One day, someone is gonna stop buying our debt.  It’s the equivalent of a family earning 10K a month and spending 15K a month.  It must stop at some point. 

Why?

People have been proclaiming impending doom over the "debt" since it started.  So far, no doom.  Not even close.

The reason why is pretty obvious if you think about it, I'm actually shocked you (of all folks) are a debt-worrier, given your impressive knowledge of finance and economics.  The debt is an almost entirely fictional concern for cheap political points.  It's not actually a real immediate problem and likely never will be.

Defaulting tho?  That would be an absolute killer.

[southparkcpa]

5 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Why?

People have been proclaiming impending doom over the "debt" since it started.  So far, no doom.  Not even close.

The reason why is pretty obvious if you think about it, I'm actually shocked you (of all folks) are a debt-worrier, given your impressive knowledge of finance and economics.  The debt is an almost entirely fictional concern for cheap political points.  It's not actually a real immediate problem and likely never will be.

Defaulting tho?  That would be an absolute killer.

I'm not the only one calling out the debt.. The interest alone is larger than the defense budget now.  This debt is relatively new.  Look at the graph. Most of this debt didn't exist until the 70's.  Politicians just buying votes.  Soon we won't be able to pay for the debt. 

[batman10023]

19 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

Raising the debt ceiling is step one  to the federal deficit.  

Just noise???  It’s statutorily set. One day someone will stop buying our debt and it wont matter.

The younger lawmakers as bigger whores than the boomers. They spend uncontrollably.  The  U.S. Debt has doubled in last 15 years.  I dont disagree with you , I’m simply saying it is getting worse and the younger generation of congress is drunk on the spending.  

boomers have been in power for the last 15 years.  you are proving my point.

(obviously i am talking about the boomers in general, i assume many of them are good especially Jets fans)

[Matt39]

38 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

boomers have been in power for the last 15 years.  you are proving my point.

(obviously i am talking about the boomers in general, i assume many of them are good especially Jets fans)

I don’t think the people in power really consider which generation they belong to.

[Warfish]

3 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

Soon we won't be able to pay for the debt. 

I wouldn't hold your breath on that my friend.

[Biggs]

3 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

I'm not the only one calling out the debt.. The interest alone is larger than the defense budget now.  This debt is relatively new.  Look at the graph. Most of this debt didn't exist until the 70's.  Politicians just buying votes.  Soon we won't be able to pay for the debt. 

It was 113% of our GDP coming out of WW2.   We had a huge post war boom.  

[southparkcpa]

3 hours ago, batman10023 said:

boomers have been in power for the last 15 years.  you are proving my point.

(obviously i am talking about the boomers in general, i assume many of them are good especially Jets fans)

Of course, 90 percent of congress are boomers. That's like saying Mexicans are mainly responsible for Mexico.   This has been going on since 1972. The next 20 years, which will be worse IMO, will be in the hands of the current generation of congressmen. Please name one R or D other than the 9 R's that has voted to reduce the deficit that is under 50 years old????

 

[southparkcpa]

6 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I wouldn't hold your breath on that my friend.

Things that just can't continue.....  one day won't.  We're at 30 trillion. At 50 trillion, who's gonna lend??  They'll demand a rate of 4-6 percent.

I think it will happen in the next 20 years where we simply can't borrow or we print and we have runaway inflation. Look at Argentina.

[JetPotato]

2 hours ago, Matt39 said:

I don’t think the people in power really consider which generation they belong to.

They all are proud members of Generation $

[Biggs]

9 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

Things that just can't continue.....  one day won't.  We're at 30 trillion. At 50 trillion, who's gonna lend??  They'll demand a rate of 4-6 percent.

I think it will happen in the next 20 years where we simply can't borrow or we print and we have runaway inflation. Look at Argentina.

Who would lend at 10 Trillion?  20 Trillion.  Why an arbitrary figure like 50 Trillion?  

[southparkcpa]

9 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Who would lend at 10 Trillion?  20 Trillion.  Why an arbitrary figure like 50 Trillion?  

Just arbitrary....  at 30 trillion, we are starting to realize that we can't see the end.   Peopl;e are commenting about the size of the interest expense.

At 50 trillion, the interest alone can cripple us.  The value of the dollar can/will fall and they'll stop lending. 

Many countries have already decoupled from the dollar in the last 5 years.  

 

 

[CanadaSteve]

23 hours ago, Warfish said:

I'm sure.  But "when" is the question, and "after I'm long gone" the likely answer.

Although our political class is certainly doing everything possible to hasten the coming of that day, sadly.

I'm always happy to brush up against those rules, especially on economic issues (where system discussion isn't really politics, but politics adjacent).

But if you're predicting a move away from market capitalism in our current mixed economy, that's would be a huge change, against a very strong entrenched power class and interest group, and would need an equally huge supporting argument to make, that's all.  

I do not doubt any of what you are saying.  I just think we are closer than we think.  We are out of cheap oil, or we wouldn't be looking to electric cars to help us "save the environment."   The next big tech advancement (probably through alien tech, am I right  ) will help advance the huge change.  

I hope so because this whole thing where 2300 global billionaires own about 80 percent of the world's wealth, while 25,000 people daily (including children) die from hunger on a planet where we estimate 40 percent food waste in production......Yeah, that S*** isn't gonna fly for much longer.  The average person is too smart to keep having the wool pulled over their eyes.  Was a tad easier when the vast majority of the population had less than a high-school education.  Then again, maybe they will be able to make better wool!

[CanadaSteve]

16 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

Just arbitrary....  at 30 trillion, we are starting to realize that we can't see the end.   Peopl;e are commenting about the size of the interest expense.

At 50 trillion, the interest alone can cripple us.  The value of the dollar can/will fall and they'll stop lending. 

Many countries have already decoupled from the dollar in the last 5 years.  

 

16 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

 

 

WAIT!  

You mean, you can't just keep borrowing money and using it to buy a life of luxury that isn't sustainable WITHOUT having to pay for it?

Son of a bitch.  Now who would have thought such a thing?

It's almost like people are onto the smoke and mirror/sleight of hand show, and they don't want to play anymore.  Huh.  

[Biggs]

On 6/12/2023 at 3:48 PM, TuscanyTile2 said:

How much has the Fed reduced its balance sheet by?  We have over $30T in debt with rising interest rates.  There's no way these 2 things can continue without us defaulting on our debt or having the government not pay their obligations (e.g. social security and medicare).  It's almost inconceivable that the latter will happen (is our government really going to tell its citizens that they can't get their checks because we need to pay higher debt service to foreign countries.  Or is our government just going to push the Fed to print more money).

95 Billion per month.  Very significant.  They are draining liquidity and raising rates.  It probably will supress lending and the economy significantly.  Inflation of real assetts are going down rapidly against the USD.  The Saudi's can't cut the oil supply fast enough to hold the price up.  

[Drums]

Pretty discouraging to read through this thread. 

[Warfish]

3 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

I do not doubt any of what you are saying.  I just think we are closer than we think.  We are out of cheap oil

Not even close, we have so much left we aren't even using the tech we have to get it because we don't need to.

3 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

, or we wouldn't be looking to electric cars to help us "save the environment."

So you just discount the entire idea that burning carbons endlessly has any effect on the environment?  

3 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

The next big tech advancement (probably through alien tech, am I right  ) will help advance the huge change.

If I knew the next big thing, I'd be investing in it  

3 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

I hope so because this whole thing where 2300 global billionaires own about 80 percent of the world's wealth, while 25,000 people daily (including children) die from hunger on a planet where we estimate 40 percent food waste in production......Yeah, that S*** isn't gonna fly for much longer.

Why not?  It's been the way of things for literally all of human history.  Even in communist countries (worse there, actually).

3 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

The average person is too smart to keep having the wool pulled over their eyes.

The "average person" in a western democracy is a fat, lazy, stupid, happy sheep who talks a good game and does piss all. 

They're not rioting any time soon.  Sorry.

3 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

Was a tad easier when the vast majority of the population had less than a high-school education.  Then again, maybe they will be able to make better wool!

The smart will rise, the dumb will fall.  Same as it's always been.

[Warfish]

4 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

Things that just can't continue.....  one day won't.

Again, it's been "continuing" for literally forever for the U.S.  In far worse economic times than today.

4 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

  We're at 30 trillion. At 50 trillion, who's gonna lend??  They'll demand a rate of 4-6 percent.

Everyone, same as now.  And they might want higher rates, won't change anything.

You're missing the fundamentals that underlay the entire concept my friend.

4 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

I think it will happen in the next 20 years where we simply can't borrow or we print and we have runaway inflation. Look at Argentina.

It's always a possibility, I suppose. 

But it'll be more about what our elected officials do to **** things up than it will be about the level of our debt.

[PFSIKH]

On 6/12/2023 at 3:51 PM, CanadaSteve said:

Sorry, you forgot a couple of air quotes there.  Fixed that for you.  Maine and Iowa have some of the most "affordable" housing in the USA, if you think a quarter of a million dollars is "affordable."

Again, this will only lead to politics, and we can't discuss that 8-letter word here.  Feel free to message me if you wish to. 

J/K.  I completely agree.  The area I live in has seen a big increase in prices.  There are rental rates that are two to three times my mortgage.

I live North of Nashville and we are essentially a suburb now.

[Matt39]

On 6/12/2023 at 12:30 PM, batman10023 said:

some would say because the kids can't afford vacations

 

I will say, just from my observations (nothing more) a lot of peers or people that I have known have married girls with unrealistic expectations (shocker lol). They buy a house and want to upgrade everything immediately. Want to fancy cars. Vacations. Camps. You name it. The area was more affordable back in the 80’s 90’s but the upgrades people did were slow and gradual and people weren’t splurging on expensive cars either. I suspect Connors wife may fall into this category.

[Vudu]

This is a great discussion

[batman10023]

3 hours ago, Matt39 said:

I will say, just from my observations (nothing more) a lot of peers or people that I have known have married girls with unrealistic expectations (shocker lol). They buy a house and want to upgrade everything immediately. Want to fancy cars. Vacations. Camps. You name it. The area was more affordable back in the 80’s 90’s but the upgrades people did were slow and gradual and people weren’t splurging on expensive cars either. I suspect Connors wife may fall into this category.

from my observations many men have unreal expectations of how attractive they expect their wives to be.   nice boobs, nice butt. you name it.

 

[batman10023]

3 hours ago, Matt39 said:

I will say, just from my observations (nothing more) a lot of peers or people that I have known have married girls with unrealistic expectations (shocker lol). They buy a house and want to upgrade everything immediately. Want to fancy cars. Vacations. Camps. You name it. The area was more affordable back in the 80’s 90’s but the upgrades people did were slow and gradual and people weren’t splurging on expensive cars either. I suspect Connors wife may fall into this category.

you keep talking about how expensive the northeast is.  you i think moved to a lower cost area.  did you do this after retirement or before?

you keep talking about how affordable the area was in the 80s and 90s.  that's probably correct but you are missing the massive amount of wealth that has been created since the 1990s.     that is propping up prices i would suspect.

i keep wondering how people afford the rents in manhattan.  but it doesn't seem to decline.

[Matt39]

5 hours ago, batman10023 said:

you keep talking about how expensive the northeast is.  you i think moved to a lower cost area.  did you do this after retirement or before?

you keep talking about how affordable the area was in the 80s and 90s.  that's probably correct but you are missing the massive amount of wealth that has been created since the 1990s.     that is propping up prices i would suspect.

i keep wondering how people afford the rents in manhattan.  but it doesn't seem to decline.

Manhattan is a unique beast. If I had the answer I’d share but I don’t suspect it’s only supply and demand.

the area was definitely more affordable 30-40 years ago and has jumped more than anywhere else in the country maybe besides California. The property taxes especially (which are criminal now). People bought their homes for 100K back in the early 80’s and they’re worth near 1 mill. People are moving less too I’d suspect. 15-20 years ago once the kids were done with school they’d move out. Not the case as much anymore.

[nj meadowlands]

28 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

i keep wondering how people afford the rents in manhattan. 

I have this thought every 30 days 😄