OT: Jets Writer Connor Hughes can’t find a home with $600K budget

[Matt39]

3 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

it's pretty simple.  the older generation has sucked the benefits out an left the younger ones with the bill.  student loans, housing, wage growth, decent retirement - all are unattainable now mostly to the boomer generation policies (the people in power both parties).

the northeast and california are extremes but this is happening everywhere.

 

Boomers and older are also living a lot longer. The property taxes are heavily connected to the amount of defined retirement plans that are being paid out in perpetuity.

[southparkcpa]

1 minute ago, batman10023 said:

2008 was nothing like the housing bubble we have now.  

you need to rerun your math.

 

It's a bubble when it bursts. I don't see that. In 2008, I had clients buying homes in Florida, the beach etc with no money down.  Congress pushed banks to make loans to people who never should have been able to buy a home.  Banks now are scrutinizing the crap out of buyers for principal residences.  What makes you say this is a bubble?  Again, I define a bubble by a drop of say 20 to 30 percent.  I don't see it here.   

[southparkcpa]

2 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

Bubble in the sense of total monthly cost (mortgage payment and taxes) as a percent of household income.

it's way out of whack.  

That is not a bubble in my definition but yes, it's pretty whacked.  A bubble to me is asset based pricing, you're talking budget of income.

[batman10023]

2 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Agree it has to crash.  And interest rates have been rising, which should hasten the crash.  But I can't believe the housing bubble is still going on.  Crazy!

I wonder this as well

$80k?

[batman10023]

1 minute ago, southparkcpa said:

That is not a bubble in my definition but yes, it's pretty whacked.  A bubble to me is asset based pricing, you're talking budget of income.

hmm.  the asset needs to be supported by fundamentals, which in this case is not there.

mommy and daddy  paying a part of the downpayment - or helping with the all cash bids is definitely coming into play.

[playtowinthegame]

16 hours ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

investors are buying sone inventory to take advantage of the sellers market

 

[batman10023]

3 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

It's a bubble when it bursts. I don't see that. In 2008, I had clients buying homes in Florida, the beach etc with no money down.  Congress pushed banks to make loans to people who never should have been able to buy a home.  Banks now are scrutinizing the crap out of buyers for principal residences.  What makes you say this is a bubble?  Again, I define a bubble by a drop of say 20 to 30 percent.  I don't see it here.   

pretty simple.  nj 90k median household income.  NJ avg home price 420k.  7% mortgage.  $2400 a month.  add $1k a month in property tax.

$3400 a month.  with a pre tax salary of 7500 a month.

i think you can do the rest of the math.

[batman10023]

10 hours ago, Hal N of Provo said:

I’d like to think we can preserve home affordability that’s been a given since WWII based on policy and that should be a goal.   I want my kids to be able to own a home.  

then perhaps you will need to move out of your home

[southparkcpa]

4 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

hmm.  the asset needs to be supported by fundamentals, which in this case is not there.

mommy and daddy  paying a part of the downpayment - or helping with the all cash bids is definitely coming into play.

When I was 26, making 35K a year, I had a mortgage payment of $1,400 a month.  Do the math.  It was stressful.  No one was helping me.  But yes, I see it in my peers, with kids still living at home into their late 20's, early 30's.  

[David Harris]

14 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

It’s mostly inaccessible in Fairfield, Bergen and Westchester. It’s not the end of the world. Plenty of nice areas in the country that are still very affordable.

I guess it's just accepting that certain regions and cities are simply filled up and will be for the foreseeable future.  Housing migration is the new norm.  

As an aside, I saw that Phoenix is stopping all new developments due to water restrictions.  Salt Lake also cant' handle more people and the drying Lake is about to make the air toxic.

[batman10023]

2 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

When I was 26, making 35K a year, I had a mortgage payment of $1,400 a month.  Do the math.  It was stressful.  No one was helping me.  But yes, I see it in my peers, with kids still living at home into their late 20's, early 30's.  

you also were eating ramen every day if i recall correctly

[Sperm Edwards]

10 hours ago, Maxman said:

On another note, how much do you think someone like Connor makes per year?

Clearly not much. His wife "works in health care" but that's vague, so she may have an administrative job in a doctor's office or hospital or something. Probably not raking it in either. Plus they're both young.

I'm sympathetic to younger couples (particularly with a baby on the way) doing their first-time home buying in this market, but a lot of that sympathy goes out the window when the husband goes around saying weenie-ish things like, "we're pregnant." Mrs. Hughes should slap him hard for that, unless Connor can somehow alleviate what she's about to go through by shifting it to a 20-Couric dump he's about to take. And even then, it's still a punchable-face comment.

For others? I get that 18 year-olds want their most authentic, best-match college experience, but if mom & dad aren't helping out in a big way, then stick to a state school. Take some AP classes in HS if you can handle it, to possibly shave off another semester or more, too. Seems from CH's linkedin that he did his first 2 years at a community college, which seriously decreased his student loan amount, before his second two at Monmouth University (current tuition is $62K). Two more years of lower tuition at a state school would've helped out with what he can afford, but with a profession where he enters the workforce right out of college there may not have been a good match. Don't know what his wife's college loans were, or if she even went.

10 hours ago, Maxman said:

He has to be in Florham Park almost daily, so south jersey isn't really an option for him most likely.

$-wise he's probably better off getting something down south, and then renting a studio or even a cheap hotel room during football season or as-needed in the offseason. Build up equity, and then as they're older they'll be able to afford more. Easy for me to say, though I've had plenty of family do some crazy commutes every day out of necessity for many years; many or most younger people are unwilling to do that anymore.

Of course if he'd done that 2 years ago - when rates were still at/under 3% with no points - well before Mrs. H got pregnant, instead of waiting for their first purchase to be that perfect forever-home, they wouldn't have been chasing the market up (with sharply-rising interest rates, too). They'd have been able to flip that now to close the gap on something closer to work as well, and wouldn't feel the same pressure to get something faster. But yeah, hindsight & all that.

[Matt39]

1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Clearly not much. His wife "works in health care" but that's vague. 

I'm sympathetic to younger couples (particularly with a baby on the way) doing their first-time home buying in this market, but a lot of that sympathy goes out the window when the husband goes around saying weenie-ish things like, "we're pregnant." Mrs. Hughes should slap him hard for that, unless Connor can somehow alleviate what she's about to go through by shifting it to a 20-Couric dump he's about to take. And even then, it's still a punchable-face comment.

For others? I get that 18 year-olds want their most authentic, best-match college experience, but if mom & dad aren't helping out in a big way, then stick to a state school. Take some AP classes in HS if you can handle it, to possibly shave off another semester or more, too. Seems from CH's linkedin that he did his first 2 years at a community college, which seriously decreased his student loan amount, before his second two at Monmouth University (current tuition is $62K). Two more years of lower tuition at a state school would've helped out with what he can afford, but with a profession where he enters the workforce right out of college there may not have been a good match. Don't know what his wife's college loans were.

$-wise he's probably better off getting something down south, and then renting a studio or even a cheap hotel room during football season or as-needed in the offseason. Build up equity, and then as they're older they'll be able to afford more. Easy for me to say, though I've had plenty of family do some crazy commutes every day out of necessity for many years; many or most younger people are unwilling to do that anymore.

Of course if he'd done that 2 years ago - when rates were still at/under 3% with no points - well before Mrs. H got pregnant. instead of waiting for that perfect forever-home, they wouldn't have been chasing the market up (with sharply-rising interest rates, too). They'd have been able to flip that now to close the gap on something closer to work as well, and wouldn't feel the same pressure to get something faster. But yeah, hindsight & all that.

an important question to ask a would be spouse is if they are willing to live an hour or more away from their mother. Makes things easier knowing lol 

[ganggreen305]

Wow, this string won't die.

[TuscanyTile2]

8 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

When I was 26, making 35K a year, I had a mortgage payment of $1,400 a month.  Do the math.  It was stressful.  No one was helping me.  But yes, I see it in my peers, with kids still living at home into their late 20's, early 30's.  

This is what happens when we don't let the free market set interest rates.

[batman10023]

4 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Clearly not much. His wife "works in health care" but that's vague, so she may have an administrative job in a doctor's office or hospital or something. Probably not raking it in either. Plus they're both young.

I'm sympathetic to younger couples (particularly with a baby on the way) doing their first-time home buying in this market, but a lot of that sympathy goes out the window when the husband goes around saying weenie-ish things like, "we're pregnant." Mrs. Hughes should slap him hard for that, unless Connor can somehow alleviate what she's about to go through by shifting it to a 20-Couric dump he's about to take. And even then, it's still a punchable-face comment.

For others? I get that 18 year-olds want their most authentic, best-match college experience, but if mom & dad aren't helping out in a big way, then stick to a state school. Take some AP classes in HS if you can handle it, to possibly shave off another semester or more, too. Seems from CH's linkedin that he did his first 2 years at a community college, which seriously decreased his student loan amount, before his second two at Monmouth University (current tuition is $62K). Two more years of lower tuition at a state school would've helped out with what he can afford, but with a profession where he enters the workforce right out of college there may not have been a good match. Don't know what his wife's college loans were.

$-wise he's probably better off getting something down south, and then renting a studio or even a cheap hotel room during football season or as-needed in the offseason. Build up equity, and then as they're older they'll be able to afford more. Easy for me to say, though I've had plenty of family do some crazy commutes every day out of necessity for many years; many or most younger people are unwilling to do that anymore.

Of course if he'd done that 2 years ago - when rates were still at/under 3% with no points - well before Mrs. H got pregnant. instead of waiting for that perfect forever-home, they wouldn't have been chasing the market up (with sharply-rising interest rates, too). They'd have been able to flip that now to close the gap on something closer to work as well, and wouldn't feel the same pressure to get something faster. But yeah, hindsight & all that.

what's shocking is that he was able to save $100k on their salary.   that's impressive and good dedication.

[Sperm Edwards]

1 minute ago, Matt39 said:

an important question to ask a would be spouse is if they are willing to live an hour or more away from their mother. Makes things easier knowing lol 

100%. I think in their case it says they're from outside Philly, but don't know if their families still live there. Being near the baby's grandma (if not both) would help a lot with childcare costs. If they all get along & like each other, that is.

[Biggs]

32 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

it's pretty simple.  the older generation has sucked the benefits out an left the younger ones with the bill.  student loans, housing, wage growth, decent retirement - all are unattainable now mostly to the boomer generation policies (the people in power both parties).

the northeast and california are extremes but this is happening everywhere.

 

Exhibit A of why the Boomer generation invented birth control, family planning and legalized abortion on demand.  Yet the few we actually birthed and raised bite the hand that fed it.  Another example of how no good deed goes unpunished.

[UntouchableCrew]

14 hours ago, Matt39 said:

also, south jersey has plenty of inventory at reasonable costs so something is missing from the story too.

Ha, I was thinking that too. It's one thing if they're trying to move to a ritzy town in Westchester, Nassau County or Bergen County.

South Jersey can't be that bad.

[Matt39]

2 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Ha, I was thinking that too. It's one thing if they're trying to move to a ritzy town in Westchester, Nassau County or Bergen County.

South Jersey can't be that bad.

wife wanted granite countertops 

[southparkcpa]

22 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

This is what happens when we don't let the free market set interest rates.

MY interest rate back then, 1987, was 10 percent.

[bitonti]

28 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

This is what happens when we don't let the free market set interest rates.

The Free market cannot be trusted to set interest rates

Currencies need to managed, period

The real crime was keeping money free for 12+ years. Lending shouldn't be free, it's artificial like eating snickers bars for dinner

Those who disagree essentially don't believe in Keynesian economics - The Austrian "School" might as well be called "we have no ideas" 

Not believing in Keynes is like being a physicist who doesn't believe in Einsteinian relativity 

 

[batman10023]

13 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Exhibit A of why the Boomer generation invented birth control, family planning and legalized abortion on demand.  Yet the few we actually birthed and raised bite the hand that fed it.  Another example of how no good deed goes unpunished.

hmm.  no dog in the fight,  i am turning 50.  and doing fine.  and closer to boomer than gen z or millenials.

perhaps you have done all the right things, and many boomers have.

but objectively, in the years the boomers have been in power - the federal debt has exploded, the boomer shipped jobs overseas (to lower the cost of their lifestyle), added a whole bunch of entitlements that future kids will have to pay.   and many of the items that were available to boomers (affordable college, reasonable homes) are not there for the younger folks.

many boomers push back and give their personal experience of all the great things they gave their kids.  and that's definitely true in some cases.  but in aggregate that's just not the case.

how about some actual facts instead of some birth control points.

[Biggs]

People who own houses aren't able to scale up and scale down because of taxes and interest rates.  That has suppressed the availability of homes for buyers.   When interest rates are suppressed for a long time and then go up very fast while liquidity is being drained from the market you don't have a normal movement of people in and out of houses.  The availability of housing is being suppressed by tax policy and the Fed.  These are not normal market conditions.  

I think this is a real problem.  Older people should be able to scale down and open housing stock for young families.  They can't because in some communities they will pay more in taxes and interest to scale down and actually pay more for housing on fixed incomes than if they stay put.  They aren't moving and opening up good homes for young families.  

This is not normal market conditions.  It's highly manipulated by local tax and fed policy.  It's a real problem for young families trying to get in.  It's also a problem for older couples looking to scale down.

[bitonti]

The problem with housing by the way is complex - besides "foreign investors" which do indeed exist, there are other problems like NIMBY zoning, the price of lumber and most politically hot, the status of labor. 

They did a study in Florida and the highest cost of housing was actually not enough labor. in other words close the border, prices go up - this is not a political board but actions have consequences. However you feel about them 

 

and to take a step back, I wonder at what point Owning a House became this American dream 

it can be great but it can also be a Tom Hanksian "Money Pit" 

this idea that housing has to act like an investment when really it is just a place to live 

it might be better for Connor to just rent for a while. A "new" house for them might come with expenses like a new roof or HVAC replacement, right as they are facing added expenses for the new baby

what's the big attraction to ownership? The equity? Writing off the mortgage interest? 

[Biggs]

6 minutes ago, bitonti said:

The Free market cannot be trusted to set interest rates

Currencies need to managed, period

The real crime was keeping money free for 12+ years. Lending shouldn't be free, it's artificial like eating snickers bars for dinner

Those who disagree essentially don't believe in Keynesian economics - The Austrian "School" might as well be called "we have no ideas" 

Not believing in Keynes is like being a physicist who doesn't believe in Einsteinian relativity 

 

If you believe in Keynesian policy which I do.  When you're at full employment you should cut the crap out government spending.  By increasing it during a time of full employment the government is competing with the private sector for debt and pushing up interest rates for everyone including home owners and the government.  

We are increasing spending and the debt when we are at full employment.  That's a huge part of the housing crunch.  People can't afford to  give up their mortgages.  They aren't just buying a new house they're buying a new mortgage at much higher rates. 

[TheClashFan]

15 hours ago, sciond said:

Depends where. The good parts of NC and SC are not cheap anymore. Same for Florida and the desirable areas are not cheap anymore. ATL is though the roof too...

Same here in the Knoxville, TN area. This used to be a coveted area, despite being bad for those with allergies. Supposedly the housing market has gotten very expensive, relative to local salaries, in recent years.  Builders are cranking up apartment buildings, yet rental prices also have risen a lot in recent years. Property taxes have risen dramatically.

My wife and I bought our house in the late 90's. We were going to upgrade to a bigger house eventually; instead we just paid it off early and started updating it. It's small, but we own it.

 

[bitonti]

11 minutes ago, Biggs said:

If you believe in Keynesian policy which I do.  When you're at full employment you should cut the crap out government spending.  By increasing it during a time of full employment the government is competing with the private sector for debt and pushing up interest rates for everyone including home owners and the government.  

We are increasing spending and the debt when we are at full employment.  That's a huge part of the housing crunch.  People can't afford to  give up their mortgages.  They aren't just buying a new house they're buying a new mortgage at much higher rates. 

The timing sucks but the rates had to be raised because of inflation. End of discussion. There's no other tool to fight inflation. There was 7 percent inflation coming out of COVID that's really problematic 

In fact a currency can do one of two things inflate or deflate. The fed shoots for 2 percent inflation - because nothing stays the same. Small inflation can be controlled through rates. Deflation gets out of control and enters a doom loop. Ask Japan

I don't necessarily disagree with much of what you're saying but if we're being honest there are 2 ways to fight debt: Cut spending and raise revenue i.e. raise taxes - especially on the highest incomes 

It's not rocket science like some big mystery. We know how to do it. 

What's needed is compromise. If one side agreed to cuts and the other side agreed to tax increases, there would be a balanced ledger

but that's a red herring - all that being said even if the gov't had balanced ledgers there would still be the underlying problems of NIMBY zoning, the price of raw goods going up and labor shortage 

put it another way if Rates were 0 that does very little to change the price of lumber. IT doesn't do anything for getting more construction workers on the job. It doesn't change the zoning in these "single family only" towns

if congress made "Single family only" zoning illegal that would increase the supply 

there are solutions to these problems but no one wants to do anything except complain 

 

[Fantasy Island]

The economy is upside down.  There will be a correction.  

[jago]

17 hours ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

It’s quite a bit more complicated than that, and it’s not by “design” or a corporate conspiracy.  Inventory is down significantly for a number of economic and societal reasons:

-homeowners with pre 2022 low mortgage interest rates are not selling because of the uncertainty in buying a new home with high rates

-COVID caused many sellers to stay in their homes for financial and health reasons

- Covid led to a migration from cities to suburbs increasing the number of buyers and the price of houses

-the work from home culture has resulted in a lack of movement when people change jobs, decreasing inventory 

- investors are buying sone inventory to take advantage of the sellers market
 

-the number of buyers has increased because of the COVID migration, and because the low inventory has kept them without homes and in the market for extended periods 

everything you have listed is the result of current regime policy, including the handy excuse of "Covid" for all troubles.

 

[Biggs]

26 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

hmm.  no dog in the fight,  i am turning 50.  and doing fine.  and closer to boomer than gen z or millenials.

perhaps you have done all the right things, and many boomers have.

but objectively, in the years the boomers have been in power - the federal debt has exploded, the boomer shipped jobs overseas (to lower the cost of their lifestyle), added a whole bunch of entitlements that future kids will have to pay.   and many of the items that were available to boomers (affordable college, reasonable homes) are not there for the younger folks.

many boomers push back and give their personal experience of all the great things they gave their kids.  and that's definitely true in some cases.  but in aggregate that's just not the case.

how about some actual facts instead of some birth control points.

I disagree.  Most of the policy's you're complaining about was actually set up by the WW2 generation who birthed the boomers.  They were in power when SS and Medicare was set up.  They spent a fortune on Vietnam, Korea, the cold war, etc., etc., etc.  They actually set up the global trading system that vastly benifited Americans.  The real poverty rates in the US was significantly higher during the WW2 generations power.  

The Boomer generation, which hasn't been very good, has seen a marked reduction in poverty in the USA and a huge decrease of poverty globally along with one of the greatest expansions of middle class consumers in world history. 

Shipping jobs overseas has also shipped pollution and inflation over seas and helped create 100's of millions of new middle class consumers who are buying American made products.  That has allowed formely guaranteed company pensions to move to self directed pensions which has allowed multi-generations of entreprenuers who have been freed from corporate slavery.  

Starvation rates in this country were much higher before a boomer ever got elected to Congress or held a job as a CEO.  

I'm not pushing back.  I recognize the WW2 generation was terrific and made tons of policy mistakes.  The boomer generation saw one of the greatest reductions in starvation and the biggest rise in the middle class and real wages in the history of the world.  We also did a lot of dumb stuff.

Do better. 

[batman10023]

21 minutes ago, bitonti said:

The problem with housing by the way is complex - besides "foreign investors" which do indeed exist, there are other problems like NIMBY zoning, the price of lumber and most politically hot, the status of labor. 

They did a study in Florida and the highest cost of housing was actually not enough labor. in other words close the border, prices go up - this is not a political board but actions have consequences. However you feel about them 

 

and to take a step back, I wonder at what point Owning a House became this American dream 

it can be great but it can also be a Tom Hanksian "Money Pit" 

this idea that housing has to act like an investment when really it is just a place to live 

it might be better for Connor to just rent for a while. A "new" house for them might come with expenses like a new roof or HVAC replacement, right as they are facing added expenses for the new baby

what's the big attraction to ownership? The equity? Writing off the mortgage interest? 

you can't get kicked out of your home due to rent increases (for example).

it's a solid way for people to save money for retirement (outside of 401k etc).

people like the stability.

your "expenses" while true it could happen, if it happened in a rental the cost would just eventually flow back to them in rent increases - do you think the owner is just going to eat the cost of a $10k new roof?   this "expenses" argument that people make kind of shows they haven't thought thru everything.   now in terms of timing of payments - you are correct  (new baby etc) and can be an issue.

[JohnnyLV]

I faced same issue in San Diego so I bought a house in Las Vegas. So nice to own a house as opposed to renting a one bedroom for $2000

[LIJetsFan]

4 minutes ago, Biggs said:

I disagree.  Most of the policy's you're complaining about was actually set up by the WW2 generation who birthed the boomers.  They were in power when SS and Medicare was set up.  They spent a fortune on Vietnam, Korea, the cold war, etc., etc., etc.  They actually set up the global trading system that vastly benifited Americans.  The real poverty rates in the US was significantly higher during the WW2 generations power.  

The Boomer generation, which hasn't been very good, has seen a marked reduction in poverty in the USA and a huge decrease of poverty globally along with one of the greatest expansions of middle class consumers in world history. 

Shipping jobs overseas has also shipped pollution and inflation over seas and helped create 100's of millions of new middle class consumers who are buying American made products.  That has allowed formely guaranteed company pensions to move to self directed pensions which has allowed multi-generations of entreprenuers who have been freed from corporate slavery.  

Starvation rates in this country were much higher before a boomer ever got elected to Congress or held a job as a CEO.  

I'm not pushing back.  I recognize the WW2 generation was terrific and made tons of policy mistakes.  The boomer generation saw one of the greatest reductions in starvation and the biggest rise in the middle class and real wages in the history of the world.  We also did a lot of dumb stuff.

Do better. 

I don't know if all of this is true but I like the tone.  

[batman10023]

2 minutes ago, Biggs said:

I disagree.  Most of the policy's you're complaining about was actually set up by the WW2 generation who birthed the boomers.  They were in power when SS and Medicare was set up.  They spent a fortune on Vietnam, Korea, the cold war, etc., etc., etc.  They actually set up the global trading system that vastly benifited Americans.  The real poverty rates in the US was significantly higher during the WW2 generations power.  

The Boomer generation, which hasn't bee very good, has seen a marked reduction in poverty in the USA and a huge decrease of poverty globally along with one of the greatest expansions of middle class consumers in world history. 

Shipping jobs overseas has also shipped pollution and inflation over seas and helped create 100's of millions of new middle class consumers who are buying American made products.  That has allowed formely guaranteed company pensions to move to self directed pensions which has allowed multi-generations of entreprenuers who have been freed from corporate slavery.  

Starvation rates in this country were much higher before a boomer ever got elected to Congress or held a job as a CEO.  

from memory the recent wars of the last 20 years have been very costly.

the ss/medicare was set up by the older folks but the benefits have increased under the boomers (prescriptions for example).

the federal debt is over $100k per person now.   thanks Boomers.