Guess some of you need to hear this: Zach Wilson (and his $23 mil 5th yr option) has no Future in NY

[Jetsfan80]

55 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

Perhaps the Jets wanted to focus on three step drops, the short passing game, and the running game this week.  These made up the vast majority of play calls while both Zach and Boyle were in the game.  You do know teams regularly focus on specific aspects of the game during the preseason, correct?

Sure, but even in this area he's not making all that impressive strides.  The time for "baby steps" is over, no?  He's in year 3 of a 4-year deal.

[HighPitch]

AR goes down week 12 with his fibula poking out of his trousers for all to see on national tv

 

ZW comes in and wins the game

ZW closes the year out with 4/5 wins to end the season 

ZW gets paid.

 

 

Its NOT that crazy a scenario but OK

[tfine]

I don’t like the “it can’t happen here because it’s never happened before” argument. If Zach improves after AR retires why not keep him? No one is going to pay him top dollar especially if he doesn’t play. Might as well keep him and let him compete with a veteran.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[DoubleDown]

19 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Yea yea yea. But for real.

7 pages later and only two ppl have offered anything resembling sensible deliberation on how bringing in Aaron for 2-3 yrs isn’t the kiss of death for Zach’s rookie contract with NYJ.  Notice I said Zach’s rookie contract. 

The other 147 objections have been emotionally charged musings about his ability to salvage his career. 

Perhaps because it's a silly game of hypotheticals and nobody can definitively predict what is going to happen on the football field, in the locker room, and with the leadership of this team over the next 2-3 years.

The Jets could win 3 Superbowls, Rodgers wins 3 MVPs, and JD and Saleh each get 7 year extensions.

Or Rodgers could suffer a serious season ending injury tomorrow, decide to retire, and Zach has a solid season with a playoff win demonstrating he has improved and is a viable starter in the league.

Or the Jets fail miserably, everyone gets fired, the Jets go into yet another rebuild phase with a top draft pick, and continue their playoff drought for another 10 years.

Or Rodgers gets injured toward the end of the season, Zach takes over and wins a playoff game showing he can be a decent backup.

Or Zach shows improvement on the practice field, in the film room, and decides he is willing to sign a short term extension as a back up QB in 2024 or 2025.

I could go on.  But yeah, silly hypotheticals.  And zero reason to talk down to people and make definitive statements pretending to know exactly what will happen over the next 2-3 years.

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

No one is calling for him to start.

Because anyone who did, over A.R., would be laughed off the forum, lol.

[Bowles Movement]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

OK.  So say they think he's making good strides.  Are they offering him an extension?  If so....for how much and how many years?

And what if Rodgers is still the starting QB of the team in 2025?  What then?  What incentive is there for Zach to sign here rather than elsewhere to compete for a starting job?

Evaluation is cool and all but Paradis keeps bringing up the financial piece in this thread and very few are actually even trying to guess at what the Jets and Zach will do when his contract expires beyond saying silly stuff like "aNyTHiNg iS pOsSiBLe"

It's also equally laughable to think the Jets won't even consider taking a QB in the next draft or 2 while they wait for Zach to develop into the future FQB.  Not taking one this year made sense.  Not taking one in at least the middle rounds of 2024-2025 would be negligence.

If they like where he is at I can see them giving him a contract for 10 million a yr for 2 yrs with playing time and performance incentives.   Similar to what they paid McCown and Fitz.

[DoubleDown]

10 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Sure, but even in this area he's not making all that impressive strides.  The time for "baby steps" is over, no?  He's in year 3 of a 4-year deal.

I honestly can't remember a single game prior to Saturday where Zach was consistently taking three step drops and getting the ball out right away.  Perhaps I'm mistaken.

[Warfish]

1 minute ago, DoubleDown said:

Perhaps because it's a silly game of hypotheticals and nobody can definitively predict what is going to happen on the football field, in the locker room, and with the leadership of this team over the next 2-3 years.

The Jets could win 3 Superbowls, Rodgers wins 3 MVPs, and JD and Saleh each get 7 year extensions.

Or Rodgers could suffer a serious season ending injury tomorrow, decide to retire, and Zach has a solid season with a playoff win demonstrating he has improved and is a viable starter in the league.

Or the Jets fail miserably, go into yet another rebuild phase with a top draft pick, and continue their playoff drought for another 10 years.

Or Rodgers gets injured toward the end of the season, Zach takes over and wins a playoff game showing he can be a decent backup.

Or Zach shows improvement on the practice field, in the film room, and decides he is willing to sign a short term extension as a back up QB in 2024 or 2025.

I could go on.  But yeah, silly hypotheticals.  And zero reason to talk down to people and make definitive statements pretending to know exactly what will happen over the next 2-3 years.

The odds of those various futures occurring are not remotely close to equal.  

Nothing wrong with having a discussion on what we, today, project as Zach Wilson's future here, if any.

[DoubleDown]

4 minutes ago, Warfish said:

The odds of those various futures occurring are not remotely close to equal.  

Nothing wrong with having a discussion on what we, today, project as Zach Wilson's future here, if any.

I agree, but smugly presenting a prediction, however probable, as fact while belittling any other viewpoint can rub people the wrong way.

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

I honestly can't remember a single game prior to Saturday where Zach was consistently taking three step drops and getting the ball out right away.  Perhaps I'm mistaken.

Consistently?  No.  But my point is that him completing 14/20 when his average Depth of Target was like something like 3 yards really isn't all that impressive, even for HIS low standards. 

Folks were focusing in so hard on his completion % so hard that they convinced themselves he actually LOOKED significantly better out there when his improvements have been fairly marginal.  

[DoubleDown]

12 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Consistently?  No.  But my point is that him completing 14/20 when his average Depth of Target was like something like 3 yards really isn't all that impressive, even for HIS low standards. 

Folks were focusing in so hard on his completion % so hard that they convinced themselves he actually LOOKED significantly better out there when his improvements have been fairly marginal.  

Most positive evaluations I have read have been fair in my opinion and used terms like "solid" and "fine."  When compared against the "worst in the league" performances we have witnessed over the past two seasons, I don't think it's outlandish to say he looks at least somewhat improved thus far.

Designed three step drops and getting the ball out right away are new to Zach and something we haven't seen from him in the past. He wasn't spectacular by any means, but he showed he can at least run the system without turning the ball over or pirouetting for a loss of 15 yards.  At this stage, I'm fine with marginal progress and continued increases in comfort level.  I'm just hoping that as the primary back up this season, he can step up for a series or a game when called upon and give the team a Mike White level of production if needed.  The quarterback of the past two seasons was unable to do that.

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

Most positive evaluations I have read have been fair in my opinion and used terms like "solid" and "fine."  When compared against the "worst in the league" performances we have witnessed over the past two seasons, I don't think it's outlandish to say he looks at least somewhat improved thus far.

Designed three step drops and getting the ball out right away are new to Zach and something we haven't seen from him in the past. He wasn't spectacular by any means, but he showed he can at least run the system without turning the ball over or pirouetting for a loss of 15 yards.  At this stage, I'm fine with marginal progress and continued increases in comfort level.  I'm just hoping that as the primary back up this season, he can step up for a series or a game when called upon and give the team a Mike White level of production if needed.  The quarterback of the past two seasons was unable to do that.

Very true.  I of course don't see any future here for him beyond 2024 (and there's even a remote chance he gets traded before the rookie deal expires) but if he's going to be the QB2 I at least want to see the bold.  That will be his role for the next 2 seasons and that's what needs to be coached into him as best as possible.

[JKlecko]

6 hours ago, doitny said:

its not knowing everything , its putting yourself in JD shoes. 

if you give Zach that extension your talking about, make no mistake, Zach Wilson is the starting QB for 2025. if your JD can you trust him? 

if he wants to keep his job he cant get burnt a 3rd time by Zach. and we will know right away in 2025. it would be best for him and Saleh to draft a guy and they would get 2-3 years more to see if this guy is any good. 

how many chances can you give a guy to make you look bad before you move on. before you lose your job.? 

same thing with Darnold, yeah JD didnt draft him but he knew he couldnt give him another year. and that decision is looking pretty good right now even if he made a mistake in drafting his replacement. 

Zach would have more worth to the Jets than to any other team for a couple of reasons, so they could be willing to pay him more than any other team

the cap hit on Rodgers in 2025 is ridiculous. even if they restructure it, it won't be peanuts. Hall who was a 2nd rd pick doesnt get a 5th year option. he will have to be paid in 2025. plus he needs to make room for GW and Sause in 2026. i dont see us having more money to offer Zach than any other team.

Obviously, I disagree. His writing style is totally in absolutes and his opening statement about Jets fans needing to hear this as if he is some expert, has a crystal ball and can see the future, and more knowledgeable than the rest of us.  That's utter nonsense!  It's one thing to have an opinion on something, but quite another to state things as facts and to have a closed mind.  I've been reading and posting on Jets fan sites for over 20 years and have been a fan of the NFL for 60 years and the Jets for 58.

Yes, if JD gives Zach an extension, he will be the starting QB in 2025.  I don't think Rodgers will want to play in 2025.  He won't give Zach that extension if he doesn't think he can trust him.  If I'm JD at this point, I haven't give up on Zach.  I wouldn't give him acontract extension today, but by the end of this season or at some point in the 2024 season, I possibly would.  That was the main point of my post.  NO ONE know what will happen in two years time.  You and others are trying to base what you think will happen 2 years from now based on how Zach looked last season.  That's in the past.  Some of you (maybe most of you) who don't see Zach staying never wanted Zach here in the first place, so you're biased and with closed minds.

To a large extent, it's JD's fault that Zach has looked so bad.  Zach isn't lacking in talent and potential. It was the stupid way that JD and Saleh handled Zach.

Darnold should have never been drafted in the first place.  He had only been playing QB full time for 3-4 years at that point, and horribly regressed his last season at USC. He struggled with reading Ds and decision making in college and his mechanics were worse than Zach's.

Yes, the cap hit for Rodgers is going to be bad, but the cap will go up, and there will be some big contracts that are off of the cap by then.  We all know that when an NFL team wants to keep a player, they can manipulate contracts and the cap so it works.  Also, as I said, they may not have to give Zach more. He may give them a discount like Rodgers did.  Also as I said, the contract could be fairly cheap in 2025 with incentives and escalators that would kick in starting in 2026 and beyond.  After Rodgers for 2 years, the team isn't going to want to go back to some scrub veteran QB or a complete rookie again.  If they trade for a QB or if a quality QB like Carr hits FA, they would have to pay him just as they would Zach.

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, JKlecko said:

To a large extent, it's JD's fault that Zach has looked so bad.  Zach isn't lacking in talent and potential. It was the stupid way that JD and Saleh handled Zach.

Every high pick "isn't lacking in talent and potential".  That doesn't mean a GM and HC can get anything out of him.  Some QBs process the game too slowly.  That's Zach's biggest problem.  It's also the hardest thing to evaluate out of a college prospect.  Secondary to that is he can't handle pressure (which showed up on his college tape in any games where he was challenged).  THAT should have been "caught".  Third is accuracy.  That one he didn't show as much on tape in college and ended up shockingly bad, but again, SEE 1 and 2 I just listed:  Those 2 factors can take accurate QBs and turn them into a mechanical mess.

So yes, it is JD's fault that we ended up with the Zach Wilson we've seen, but not so much because of the coaching, but because he shouldn't have been the pick in the first place.  There were an excessive # of red flags about him as a prospect to where the good didn't outweigh the concerns.  He was a midround project who was taken in a spot you expect out of an immediate FQB and it of course ended in disaster, as many here predicted at the time he was selected.

Oh well.  QBs are tough to evaluate.  Time to move on.

[doitny]

28 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

AR goes down week 12 with his fibula poking out of his trousers for all to see on national tv

 

ZW comes in and wins the game

ZW closes the year out with 4/5 wins to end the season 

ZW gets paid.

 

 

Its NOT that crazy a scenario but OK

ZW went 5-3 last year and was the worst QB in the NFL.

we won those game in spite of him.

 

[JKlecko]

13 hours ago, Maxman said:

Hey we aren't looking to drive people away from the site. So no need to attack people like this.

Sorry. I just get tired of fans who think they know it all and state their opinions as if they're facts.  The truth is that none of us knows what will happen in two years time.

[Warfish]

25 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

I agree, but smugly presenting a prediction, however probable, as fact while belittling any other viewpoint can rub people the wrong way.

And yet everyone here does it, literally all the time.

For example, for the past two years several posters did exactly that in their opinion that Zach Wilson was an elite talent who was awesome, and attacking/belittling/calling out as non-fans anyone who disagreed.

I admitted find it quite humorous how many of those folks are now in the "don't present your opinion as fact" category (not you per se, to be clear).

I think, as a whole, we all sorta have to get over the "presenting opinion as fact" complaint, it's really just an off-topic deflection away from the subject of the thread.  

Because as noted earlier, that's pretty much what everyone does.  It's just that folks tend to bristle when it's done by opinions different than their own.

[Sperm Edwards]

4 hours ago, FootballLove said:

1) ZW ain't going nowhere as long as he's under AR's wing.

He could be under AR's scrotum and still not get his 5th year option exercised. 

[JKlecko]

32 minutes ago, Warfish said:

The odds of those various futures occurring are not remotely close to equal.  

Nothing wrong with having a discussion on what we, today, project as Zach Wilson's future here, if any.

I agree that there's nothing wrong with having a discussion, but that wasn't what the OP was doing.  His initial post was stated as fact, like any discussion was pointless and silly.

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, JKlecko said:

Sorry. I just get tired of fans who think they know it all and state their opinions as if they're facts.  The truth is that none of us knows what will happen in two years time.

Probably a 99+ % chance Zach Wilson will be on a new team no later than 2025.  But sure, you do you with the magical thinking.

The issue most seemed to have was with the "smug" nature of the thread title but its really hard to argue against the content of it.  Zach could play really well in relief and STILL not have a future here because of a mutually beneficial end result wherein both parties move on:  The Jets will want to reset the QB rookie contract clock and not spend on Zach when they have Rodgers on the books; Zach and his team will want to go to a place where he can start. 

If Rodgers is here a 3rd season that makes it even LESS likely Zach gets an extension of any kind here.

There's just no realistic pathway to Zach being the future here barring him becoming a star in this league quite quickly.  So for this to happen you need 2 historically unprecedented situations to come to pass:  1) Zach to turn into a FQB despite 2 years of sub-Ryan Leaf play (never happened in NFL history), and 2) For the Jets to be the ones to see that turnaround through and sign him to the extension rather than a new team acquiring him (also never happened in NFL history).  

[JKlecko]

3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

And yet everyone here does it, literally all the time.

For example, for the past two years several posters did exactly that in their opinion that Zach Wilson was an elite talent who was awesome, and attacking/belittling/calling out as non-fans anyone who disagreed.

I admitted find it quite humorous how many of those folks are now in the "don't present your opinion as fact" category (not you per se, to be clear).

I think, as a whole, we all sorta have to get over the "presenting opinion as fact" complaint, it's really just an off-topic deflection away from the subject of the thread.  

Because as noted earlier, that's pretty much what everyone does.  It's just that folks tend to bristle when it's done by opinions different than their own.

I disagree.  I've only been here a few weeks, and that was the most egregious example of someone posting like their opinion was fact.  No other post I've seen has been even close.  I post on another site where I see that kind of post all the time, and I've been posting on Jets fan sites for over 20 years and have seen that frequently from a few posters, but not the majority of posters.  That's why I decided to give this site a shot.

[BigRy56]

If they wanted to sign Zach in the intermediate and he wanted to stay here, why couldn’t they just do what the Packers did with Love and give him ‘an extension’, which is just a non-fully guaranteed option pickup 

[nycdan]

3 hours ago, Paradis said:

Ok sure, artistically i decided to be provocative in a manner that targeted a certain demographic. But (and to answer @Dcat’s why now Q) the reason or inspiration came from seeing ZW dialogue on the board nearly rival topics about our Pass Rush, running game, OLINE etc… No where else is this a serious topic. It’s 4th page commentary. “Is Zach improving..” 

also I need to address this b/c it seems to be root of what keeps reigniting the thread:

“Here's the only fact we all need to know.  None of us knows crap about that intent of either the Jets or Zach Wilson.  None of us knows what will happen in a year. “

What? Yes we do. That’s absurd. The second we signed Aaron Rodgers we made our intentions clear. We’ll decline his 5th yr option. He’s then all but certain to be a FA by 2024 and the scenario that has him returning to NY becomes a huge reach. 

that’s like me saying “we have no idea if Denzel Mims will lead DET’s WR corps” uhm yea I’m pretty sure we can speculate with confidence there. 

Except he's under contract for 2024.  It's 2025 that will be his 5th year.  Two seasons away.  We can't predict the weather 2 days from now, but we're supposed to have 100% clarity on what will happen with Zach Wilson two years from now?  Come on.  it's educated speculation.  Trying to claim certainty beyond that is arrogant.

[JKlecko]

2 hours ago, Larz said:

Now do Sam and baker !

Funny post, but I don't see your scenario happen.  For one thing, JD has admitted that he is to blame for how Zach has played.  He owes Zach. He could have ruined the kid's career with his dumb decision to hire a rookie HC who had been a defensive coach when Brian Daboll, who has a reputation for developing QBs was available and interested in the job.  He also allowed Saleh to compound the problem by hiring a rookie OC who had never with QBs and a rookie QB Coach.  JD at least tried to help the situation with Greg Knapp, but we know how that turned out.  To compound the matter, JD didn't have a decent veteran QB on hand to start in case Zach wasn't ready and to help with his development.  The other big mistakes that were made were expecting Zach to change his footwork and his mental approach to playing QB 180 degrees while learning a very complex offense, and while starting his rookie season.  With what they expected him to do, he should have sat for at least a season, maybe two.  MLF compounded the problem even further by not calling plays to help get Zach into a rhythm and comfortable early in games his rookie season.  Instead, he was trying to get Zach to exploit weaknesses in opponents' secondaries.  That's not something you ask a rookie QB to do, but rather a seasoned veteran who knows the offense backwards and forwards.

Beyond that, he could offer Zach a contact with a somewhat lower amount of money up front, but with easily reached incentives that would increase the value of the contract and escalators that would increase the length and value of the contract.  That would be fair and reasonable.

I also pointed out in several posts why it would be to both the Jets' and Zach's advantage to stay.  He may not stay, and it may be a moot point anyway, because he may not develop, but the whole point initially is that the OP doesn't have a crystal ball and a lot of things could change in 2 years.

[Barry McCockinner]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Sure, but even in this area he's not making all that impressive strides.  The time for "baby steps" is over, no?  He's in year 3 of a 4-year deal.

Yes it's not part of a normal QB development which is why he's been replaced.

Last year he was broken. Dude didn't belong on a football field. So they have to break it down to baby steps and start over.

Here's what most of you are missing: Zach is going to play half the 3rd quarter and the entire 4th quarter all year when we're up 4 TD's by half so we keep our 2024 1st.

[Warfish]

16 minutes ago, JKlecko said:

I've only been here a few weeks, and that was the most egregious example of someone posting like their opinion was fact.

Well, all I can say is you missed some real doozies the past two years, lol.

16 minutes ago, JKlecko said:

I post on another site where I see that kind of post all the time, and I've been posting on Jets fan sites for over 20 years and have seen that frequently from a few posters, but not the majority of posters.  That's why I decided to give this site a shot.

Folks are who they are.  For me it's more about the core topic, more than the presentation.  Hypersensitivity about how things get presented is a bit silly, especially on the interwebs, IMO.  But to each their own.

[Saul Goodman]

14 minutes ago, JKlecko said:

Funny post, but I don't see your scenario happen.  For one thing, JD has admitted that he is to blame for how Zach has played.  He owes Zach. He could have ruined the kid's career with his dumb decision to hire a rookie HC who had been a defensive coach when Brian Daboll, who has a reputation for developing QBs was available and interested in the job.  He also allowed Saleh to compound the problem by hiring a rookie OC who had never with QBs and a rookie QB Coach.  JD at least tried to help the situation with Greg Knapp, but we know how that turned out.  To compound the matter, JD didn't have a decent veteran QB on hand to start in case Zach wasn't ready and to help with his development.  The other big mistakes that were made were expecting Zach to change his footwork and his mental approach to playing QB 180 degrees while learning a very complex offense, and while starting his rookie season.  With what they expected him to do, he should have sat for at least a season, maybe two.  MLF compounded the problem even further by not calling plays to help get Zach into a rhythm and comfortable early in games his rookie season.  Instead, he was trying to get Zach to exploit weaknesses in opponents' secondaries.  That's not something you ask a rookie QB to do, but rather a seasoned veteran who knows the offense backwards and forwards.

 

What is more likely - that each and every one of the points above are accurate and reasonable explanations, or that Zach Wilson just isn’t good at football?

Sure seems like Occam’s Razor is applicable here. 

[rex-n-effect]

The path to exercising the fifth year is narrow to say the least. The QB situation would have to be so dramatically different that the team absolutely needs ZW for the year. Short of such a highly improbable scenario, ZW is likely gone. Either JD lacks interest and lets him go or JD offers a second contract with backup pay and ZW wants to try to land a starting job and contract. 

 

[doitny]

17 minutes ago, JKlecko said:

Also, as I said, they may not have to give Zach more. He may give them a discount like Rodgers did.

Rodgers is worth a half a Billion dollars. Zach is not. he is not giving any discounts. if someone offers him more he is gone.

 

18 minutes ago, JKlecko said:

After Rodgers for 2 years, the team isn't going to want to go back to some scrub veteran QB or a complete rookie again.  If they trade for a QB or if a quality QB like Carr hits FA, they would have to pay him just as they would Zach.

what do you think Zach is? a scrub. worst QB the last 2 seasons. the worst QB ever to start 20 or more games.

and thats the problem. unless Zach gets into some regular season games and plays good and lets pray to god he doesnt cause that means Rodgers got hurt he is no better than trying out a rookie who doesnt have a history of being the worst QB. 

if JD gives Zach another contract even a cheap one and then starts him in 2025 and Zach sucks for a 3rd time, how does he survive that? we're going to then have to draft one in 2026. can we trust JD to identify a FQB to draft when he cant even do that to one under his own roof for 4 years? 

 

[BloodGreen]

Daniel Jones is getting like $40 million per. By 2025 23 million for ZW might actually be backup QB money at this rate.

[BloodGreen]

Daniel Jones is getting like $40 million per. By 2025 23 million for ZW might actually be backup QB money at this rate.

[FootballLove]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

He could be under AR's scrotum and still not get his 5th year option exercised. 

I agree, there's really no way he gets his traditional 5th yr ($23m). He might get a Tray Lance deal to stay here his 5th yr (2nd under Rodgers) then take over after that. Not sure what it would look like. Maybe 3 yr, $30m with $20m guaranteed. So after his first year (first year post-Rodgers) we can cut bait if need be. Who knows really. Wouldn't be surprised if this happened, wouldn't be surprised if he got traded for a 4th round pick.

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, nycdan said:

Except he's under contract for 2024.  It's 2025 that will be his 5th year.  Two seasons away.  We can't predict the weather 2 days from now, but we're supposed to have 100% clarity on what will happen with Zach Wilson two years from now?  Come on.  it's educated speculation.  Trying to claim certainty beyond that is arrogant.

I mean, they do have to decide on the 5th year option by May of 2024….

Thats just 9 months away.  

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Yes it's not part of a normal QB development which is why he's been replaced.

Last year he was broken. Dude didn't belong on a football field. So they have to break it down to baby steps and start over.

Here's what most of you are missing: Zach is going to play half the 3rd quarter and the entire 4th quarter all year when we're up 4 TD's by half so we keep our 2024 1st.

Now that part I like. Me, @jgb and @The Crusher can just smile with the victory in hand and change the channel.

Sorta like when that ‘04 Pistons team that won the NBA title would always put in Darko Milicic when they were up big.  

[The Crusher]

7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Now that part I like. Me, @jgb and @The Crusher can just smile with the victory in hand and change the channel.

Sorta like when that ‘04 Pistons team that won the NBA title would always put in Darko Milicic when they were up big.  

Zach is my favorite QB to not watch play for the Jets.