TuscanyTile2 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcat Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 15 hours ago, Trotter said: Ok 9ers let’s top off this day with a nice win exceeding 10 The line dropped to +10.5 about 10 minutes before game time. I grabbed it for a unit and cashed in. I'll never understand why so many here, in general, seem to think the favorites will always cover. I guess I'm more of a dawg guy when it comes to NFL. The truth is that if you had played all the underdogs + points for all games, you would have had an extremely profitable season and the opposite if you played all the favorites minus points. But of course, my favorite sport to bet is MLB where favorites are losers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackhuntr Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 You heard it here 1st....... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/20/2024 at 8:35 AM, Trotter said: My gut tells me stick with the ravens and give the number Gonna be cold and that defense should rattle the young texans i am thinking a few turnovers and maybe even one for a score we’ll see as we get closer and maybe I just stick with college bb and nba but thinking go pretty large on ravens and maybe even dare throw a parlay with the 9ers Good call Trotter. What are your favorite picks today? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcat Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 My props got crushed in the Ravens/Texans game, but I did very well in the late game. Grabbed G Bay +10.5 about 10 minutes before KO. I had McCaffery at 2+ TDs (but only +155, LOL, but I'll take it) Overall an ugly losing day. Last week was so much better. So far, this is what I have: Buff/KCC under 46.5 -110 (original total when line came out). 0.5U Tampa team total over 20.5 -115. 1U Baker Mayfield over 1.5 passing TDs -108. 1U Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcat Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 18 hours ago, bitonti said: BAL -10 SFO - 10 don't overthink this Houston just won the biggest game of their life and now have to go to 0 degree Baltimore. Ravens are 6-1 after their last 7 byes. We all saw this Texans team give up in the rain against NYJ they won't like the weather today and will shut down Green Bay won't be able to run on SF defense and will be playing catchup all day. Love has been hot lately but SFO is loaded for bear fwiw i never ever do parlays but i have one BAL ML, SFO ML and DET ML that gets to about even money I like KCC to upset BUF on Sunday night due to the Taylor Swift factor and Buffalo has too many key injuries on defense 18 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said: In my experience, when I try to "bet comfortable", it doesn't work out. I feel like I do better when I "bet bold". Odds are an underdog will cover (if not win outright). I feel like Ravens/Texans is actually kind of a close matchup. No Mark Andrews and they have Dalvin Cook as their RB and they're giving 9.5 to the Texans?! I'll take Stroud and the 9.5 points. For a longer-shot, I also kind of like Texans ML. As far as the Packers, I feel like more people are on their bandwagon. I'm thinking they're more likely to fall off a little bit today. SF is such a loaded team that I feel like if GB slips up at all, they're going to pay the price. SF -10 is my pick there. betting the heavy favorites minus the points can sometimes work out, but most often it's a big fat FAIL. Doing so actually shows "underthinking" rather than overthinking, IMO. I search for the value. I never believed that Packers would defeat 49ers, but when the line moved to +10.5 from +10, all the value moved to Green Bay. Follow the value guys. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TuscanyTile2 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 minutes ago, Dcat said: betting the heavy favorites minus the points can sometimes work out, but most often it's a big fat FAIL. Doing so actually shows "underthinking" rather than overthinking, IMO. I search for the value. I never believed that Packers would defeat 49ers, but when the line moved to +10.5 from +10, all the value moved to Green Bay. Follow the value guys. I had the underdog in one of the games. Unfortunately it was the wrong one! lol What do you like today? I'm thinking over 49.5 in the Lions/Bucs game. Other than that, I don't know what I like. I want to root for the Lions to win and might lay the 6 just for that. In Buffalo/KC, I'm thinking possibly KC on the ML. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Ghost Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I forgot what it felt like to make a nice hit in these playoffs. I finally did it yesterday with a big bet on the Ravens, and a nice size 2 tease with the Pack. Home field has been big recently, but my initial thought is a tease with KC +8 and Tampa +12. I’m going to have to think about it though, because Baker is my boy, but I hate KC. @Trotter what are you thinking? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
playtowinthegame Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 20 minutes ago, Dcat said: My props got crushed in the Ravens/Texans game, but I did very well in the late game. Grabbed G Bay +10.5 about 10 minutes before KO. I had McCaffery at 2+ TDs (but only +155, LOL, but I'll take it) Overall an ugly losing day. Last week was so much better. So far, this is what I have: Buff/KCC under 46.5 -110 (original total when line came out). 0.5U Tampa team total over 20.5 -115. 1U Baker Mayfield over 1.5 passing TDs -108. 1U Good luck, Dcat. Here are my NFL same game parlays I have. Bills ML Stefon Diggs Anytime TD scorer Josh Allen OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns SGP +370 Lions ML Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD scorer I Went To Jared Goff OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns SGP +176 SGPx +1197 boosted to +1556 I'm taking $50 and splitting it up into 3 bets. I'll put $20 on each SGP and $10 on the SGPx. That is all the donations I am giving DraftKings today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Ghost Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Draft Kings must be fun. I love seeing the prop bets you guys are able to make. Meanwhile, I have 4 choices… the spread, O/U, parlay or teaser. I always felt like a tease gives the better his best chance to win, but it’s a long day waiting to see it play out. I can get myself in trouble on a day like yesterday… I hit Baltimore giving the points, and had them in a tease with the Pack. There have been way too many times I’d get greedy and double down with the second game. It would’ve hit last night, but more often than not it doesn’t. The issue for me is to not chasing when I’m losing, I’m pretty good with not doing that. it’s chasing when I’m ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bugg Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Debo getting hurt torched my "player" parlay. Out $10. Still alive with moneyline chalk parlay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OilfieldJet Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, jackhuntr said: You heard it here 1st....... Whatcha doing in Tofino @jackhuntr? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcat Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 56 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said: I had the underdog in one of the games. Unfortunately it was the wrong one! lol What do you like today? I'm thinking over 49.5 in the Lions/Bucs game. Other than that, I don't know what I like. I want to root for the Lions to win and might lay the 6 just for that. In Buffalo/KC, I'm thinking possibly KC on the ML. I already have Tampa over 20.5 as their team total so I'm definitely looking at the over for the entire game as well. I think the Lions will move on to conference final and I think they can beat the spread without blinking an eye, but could just as easily win by a smaller margin. No value there for me. I'm staying away from betting the spread. It will be the over and maybe some props. Already have Baker at +1.5 passing TDs. I might even go 2+ if it's like +500 or something. Goff has a rare opportunity to prove himself once and for all. Not sure he does it. Not betting his props. I love St Brown, but the numbers are a bit too high for my money. Last week, both Godwin and Evans did about the same as each other. will look at the prop numbers for them but at this point, that's all I got. Last week was much easier. As for the late game, other than under 46.5, I don't have anything. Certainly will look at props later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 hours ago, Dcat said: The line dropped to +10.5 about 10 minutes before game time. I grabbed it for a unit and cashed in. I'll never understand why so many here, in general, seem to think the favorites will always cover. I guess I'm more of a dawg guy when it comes to NFL. The truth is that if you had played all the underdogs + points for all games, you would have had an extremely profitable season and the opposite if you played all the favorites minus points. Can only speak for myself but im not sure it’s about favorites but the matchup i did not respect the packers to keep it within 10. I was wrong i thought the 9ers d would wear them down and then force a turnover or two similuar to the script for the ravens tiday im a bit torn but sticking to lions minus the 6.5 and bills ml fir the lions, which baker do you get? again im going with the take he is not so good baker today and the lions pull away the bills strictly because they are home but the zebras may decide good luck to you and all today 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcat Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, playtowinthegame said: Good luck, Dcat. Here are my NFL same game parlays I have. Bills ML Stefon Diggs Anytime TD scorer Josh Allen OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns SGP +370 Lions ML Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD scorer I Went To Jared Goff OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns SGP +176 SGPx +1197 boosted to +1556 I'm taking $50 and splitting it up into 3 bets. I'll put $20 on each SGP and $10 on the SGPx. That is all the donations I am giving DraftKings today. I like those. Maybe one day I'll do SGPs... the day I figure out why the lines for totals, sides and props are always different doing a SGP than they are for straight betting. I've been meaning to ask.... what is a SGPx (I see them everywhere and they are always pushing boosts to get you to try... but so far not me) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcat Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 23 minutes ago, Trotter said: Can only speak for myself but im not sure it’s about favorites but the matchup i did not respect the packers to keep it within 10. I was wrong i thought the 9ers d would wear them down and then force a turnover or two similuar to the script for the ravens tiday im a bit torn but sticking to lions minus the 6.5 and bills ml fir the lions, which baker do you get? again im going with the take he is not so good baker today and the lions pull away the bills strictly because they are home but the zebras may decide good luck to you and all today I think Mayfield can handle the Lions front 7... just watch out for Reacher Hutchinson. Baker played very well last week. He's on a mission. Today's NFL card is truly awful for betting. Last week was a rarity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet_Engine1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Of all of the vices I have picked up and put down over the years, beyond FF leagues I was in with guys from the Department (Which I always wound up running and acting as commissioner... and organizing the live in-person draft party which was always beer fueled and the best part of the whole thing lol) I never caught the gambling bug at all, in any way. Thank God. 😆 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
playtowinthegame Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 24 minutes ago, Dcat said: I like those. Maybe one day I'll do SGPs... the day I figure out why the lines for totals, sides and props are always different doing a SGP than they are for straight betting. I've been meaning to ask.... what is a SGPx (I see them everywhere and they are always pushing boosts to get you to try... but so far not me) Two or more SGP together as a parlay is a SGPx. It's like a side bet in blackjack to me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hex Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 hours ago, jackhuntr said: You heard it here 1st....... The fix is in! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
playtowinthegame Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 @bitonti What bets do you have today? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenwichjetfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/20/2024 at 12:56 AM, greenwichjetfan said: ATS Ravens Packers Chiefs Lions 2/2 yesterday. 2 more to hit! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 41 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said: @bitonti What bets do you have today? my DET ML leg of the BAL/SF/DET ML parlay is still alive other usual bets: DET -6 (2x units) (TBB coming off a short week, det home crowd has been ridiculous, Aidan is getting home) KC ML night game will be very close a coin flip could go either way. Buffalo has injuries on D that Andy Reid will exploit. And the swifties. The League is craven and will do anything for an extra million fans Other BS (these are very small bets) Josh Allen ATTD +125 profit boost DET -6, Rachaad White over 50 rushing yards, Gibbs over 49 rushing yards parlay +557 - free no sweat Same Game Parlay (will be returned if lose) 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
section314 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 hours ago, Dcat said: The line dropped to +10.5 about 10 minutes before game time. I grabbed it for a unit and cashed in. I'll never understand why so many here, in general, seem to think the favorites will always cover. I guess I'm more of a dawg guy when it comes to NFL. The truth is that if you had played all the underdogs + points for all games, you would have had an extremely profitable season and the opposite if you played all the favorites minus points. But of course, my favorite sport to bet is MLB where favorites are losers. It’s funny, back in the day baseball betting was like finding $100 bills on the sidewalk. Easy. Was all based on starting pitchers, when guys would regularly go 7-8, and turn it over to a good closer. Now, it’s keg softball, and you are putting your faith in bullpen guys that don’t belong in the big leagues. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcat Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 got a parlay boost ($50 max) for today's NFL so I set up a 2-leg teaser: TBB/DET over 43.5 KCC/BUF under 52.5 boosted from -110 to +136 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcat Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, section314 said: It’s funny, back in the day baseball betting was like finding $100 bills on the sidewalk. Easy. Was all based on starting pitchers, when guys would regularly go 7-8, and turn it over to a good closer. Now, it’s keg softball, and you are putting your faith in bullpen guys that don’t belong in the big leagues. which is why I sometimes do a First 5 bet. But stats show that the middle reliever turnstiles really don't affect the overall odds and outcomes anyway. But it does create a greater variance for full games. Sometimes I stick with the F5 inning bet. Baseball has been berry berry good to me. The NFL, on the other hand (along with cfb) has tried to rob me blind. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Ghost Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, Dcat said: I think Mayfield can handle the Lions front 7... just watch out for Reacher Hutchinson. Baker played very well last week. He's on a mission. Today's NFL card is truly awful for betting. Last week was a rarity. Agree about today’s card 100% nothing is jumping out at me. I should just sit it out and watch, but I know that isn’t going to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Nothing convincing out there so spread 100 out over 4 bets. Lions and Chiefs with spread. Any TE scores twice prop. And a 4 way parlay. Lions -2.5, under 49.5, Lions over 27.5, Bucs under 22.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TuscanyTile2 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TuscanyTile2 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 47 minutes ago, bitonti said: my DET ML leg of the BAL/SF/DET ML parlay is still alive other usual bets: DET -6 (2x units) (TBB coming off a short week, det home crowd has been ridiculous, Aidan is getting home) KC ML night game will be very close a coin flip could go either way. Buffalo has injuries on D that Andy Reid will exploit. And the swifties. The League is craven and will do anything for an extra million fans Other BS (these are very small bets) Josh Allen ATTD +125 profit boost DET -6, Rachaad White over 50 rushing yards, Gibbs over 49 rushing yards parlay +557 - free no sweat Same Game Parlay (will be returned if lose) I'm following your lead today. Let's go Lions/Chiefs! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Ghost Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 hours ago, Green Ghost said: I forgot what it felt like to make a nice hit in these playoffs. I finally did it yesterday with a big bet on the Ravens, and a nice size 2 tease with the Pack. Home field has been big recently, but my initial thought is a tease with KC +8 and Tampa +12. I’m going to have to think about it though, because Baker is my boy, but I hate KC. @Trotter what are you thinking? This bet is IN. ^^^^ I’m fighting the urge to put a few rubles on Det -6 and hope to catch a middle? (I know, I know… how big a degenerate can someone be?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoubleDown Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Moneyline parlay DET and KC. Let's go! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcat Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 Otton >31.5 rec yds (-104 Caesars) 1U R. White under 53.5 rush yds -115 1U Otton > 3.5 rec +130 0.5U Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 hours ago, Ghost said: Good call Trotter. What are your favorite picks today? Sorry remodeling a kitchen furst break since 7am lions minus the 6.5 st Amon and Laporte anytime td stillnon the bills ml tonight with diggs anytime td and possibly knox 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 hours ago, Green Ghost said: I forgot what it felt like to make a nice hit in these playoffs. I finally did it yesterday with a big bet on the Ravens, and a nice size 2 tease with the Pack. Home field has been big recently, but my initial thought is a tease with KC +8 and Tampa +12. I’m going to have to think about it though, because Baker is my boy, but I hate KC. @Trotter what are you thinking? Sorry jyst getting to this lions giving the 6.5 jameson Williams and st Amon anytime td bills ml with diggs and knox anytime td Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Trotter said: Sorry remodeling a kitchen furst break since 7am lions minus the 6.5 st Amon and Laporte anytime td stillnon the bills ml tonight with diggs anytime td and possibly knox Just catching up looks like no Laporte so Jameson Williams in his place Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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