Combine week should render a final decision on Huff.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

DEs & LBs work out this Thursday.  In the mocks I’ve seen, the top Edge rusher is projected outside the top 10.

Edge needy teams will be evaluating first & second round options … and benchmarking to vets who might be available.  

GMs will be discussing many things including (hypothetical) trades.

Salary cap went up $30M, which helps the Jets leverage (ability to afford Huff) and increases his number of suitors.

My confidence in JD took a major hit after a disastrous 10 months .. and he is clearly not in a position of strength.  A creation of his own doing.  

A good GM finds a trade partner.  Either a 2024 2nd rounder or 2024 3rd + 5th.  (Letting Huff go and picking up a 2025 3rd round comp pick does nothing for this win now regime.)

I’m on the fence if JD is able to make a trade happen.  

I still think there is a team or 2 out there that would be willing to trade the above for a surer thing like Huff rather than a coin flip gamble on a rookie or betting they can sign Huff on the open market IF the Jets choose not to franchise.

Should be an interesting week.

My bet is JD franchises and trades Huff for a 3rd + 5th rounder in 2024 and Huff signs a contract upwards of $20M per year.  

[bla bla bla]

Should also be noted that the 3rd round comp pick is best case scenario if he walks. If the Jets are targeting FAs like a lot of use expect, we can probably kiss any comp pick goodbye

[Creepy Lurker]

1 minute ago, bla bla bla said:

Should also be noted that the 3rd round comp pick is best case scenario if he walks. If the Jets are targeting FAs like a lot of use expect, we can probably kiss any comp pick goodbye

No one seems to understand this. You just see constant posts about comp picks. After all these years, you would think it would sink in and people would have a better understanding. 

[Beerfish]

Why am I trading for Bryce Huff?

He is a soon to be FA, why am I handing the jets draft capital for no reason?

It is too late to make a trade, he should have been dealt at the dead line last year like the commanders did with their pass rusher who were going to leave.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

12 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Why am I trading for Bryce Huff?

He is a soon to be FA, why am I handing the jets draft capital for no reason?

It is too late to make a trade, he should have been deal at the dead line last year like the commanders did with their pass rusher who were going to leave.

Simple, because you might not be able to sign him when competing with a bunch of other teams who want him.

So you offer the Jets a fair deal (recognizing they aren't necessarily in a position of strength) to secure a soon to be 26 year old pass rusher who is on the upswing.  You know ... guys who typically aren't available.  In the meantime, you exclusively negotiate with Huff rather than getting into a risky bidding war later on.

This isn't that hard.

 

[NYJCAP2]

You mentioned managing risk as a trade partner, but not for the Jets. What is the risk in that scenario if they can’t trade Huff?

You’ve just spent $20m a year on a part time defensive player, when you are desperate need to improve the offense.

[mrcoops]

10 minutes ago, NYJCAP2 said:

You mentioned managing risk as a trade partner, but not for the Jets. What is the risk in that scenario if they can’t trade Huff?

You’ve just spent $20m a year on a part time defensive player, when you are desperate need to improve the offense.

All the Jets' DL are part-time players. JFM is getting $16M and he only plays a bit more than Huff does, and doesn't rack up sacks and pressures the way that Huff does.

Pass-rushers are valuable, especially 25 year old, ascending ones.

If the Jets let Huff walk for nothing, it will be phenomenally stupid.

[LAD_Brooklyn]

2 minutes ago, NYJCAP2 said:

You mentioned managing risk as a trade partner, but not for the Jets. What is the risk in that scenario if they can’t trade Huff?

You’ve just spent $20m a year on a part time defensive player, when you are desperate need to improve the offense.

Everything would have to orchestrate prior too. First it has to be a serious inquiries of a few teams willing to pay him that figure. Huff would get permission to talk to the teams who meets the 3rd round demands. The 3rd rounder we recieve depends on which team he agrees to terms with. 

[Larz]

Huff doesn’t want to play on this defense and he’s a liability on 1st down 

 

He’s gone 

[chirorob]

19 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Simple, because you might not be able to sign him when competing with a bunch of other teams who want him.

So you offer the Jets a fair deal (recognizing they aren't necessarily in a position of strength) to secure a soon to be 26 year old pass rusher who is on the upswing.  You know ... guys who typically aren't available.  In the meantime, you exclusively negotiate with Huff rather than getting into a risky bidding war later on.

This isn't that hard.

So, you're saying the Jets will franchise Huff and trade him?

Because that is the only way he can be traded.

[Beerfish]

18 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Simple, because you might not be able to sign him when competing with a bunch of other teams who want him.

So you offer the Jets a fair deal (recognizing they aren't necessarily in a position of strength) to secure a soon to be 26 year old pass rusher who is on the upswing.  You know ... guys who typically aren't available.  In the meantime, you exclusively negotiate with Huff rather than getting into a risky bidding war later on.

This isn't that hard.

 

Do you guys who want to do this actually know the cost to tag or franchise DE's?

Franchise tag 21 million

Transition tag 19 million, which the jets can't do if they actually want to trade for the guy.

I like Huff but his sack stats are 3, 3, 3.5, 10

And  I don't care what team you are and I don't care if you want to wildly project a huge as sack increase if he plays every down, 21 million is damn rich.

He is not going to get some epic bidding war of teams wanting to pay franchise tag salary or higher.

He is not going to get 20 million even in a bidding war.

[Dcat]

Keep Huff and trade last years' 1st instead.  Haha.

[Beerfish]

If we really really want to keep Huff the path is to dump Mosley and use that money for Huff.

[Alworth]

36 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

If we really really want to keep Huff the path is to dump Mosley and use that money for Huff.

I never get tired of upvoting you and anyone else on this. And to take it a step further, I submit that Huff, not an OL or WR, is both the safest and most long-term beneficial thing we can do with the savings from cutting CJ.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

Do you guys who want to do this actually know the cost to tag or franchise DE's?

Franchise tag 21 million

Transition tag 19 million, which the jets can't do if they actually want to trade for the guy.

I like Huff but his sack stats are 3, 3, 3.5, 10

And  I don't care what team you are and I don't care if you want to wildly project a huge as sack increase if he plays every down, 21 million is damn rich.

He is not going to get some epic bidding war of teams wanting to pay franchise tag salary or higher.

He is not going to get 20 million even in a bidding war.

A couple points.

1. They aren’t just going to franchise him without getting a sense of his trade market.  Hence, why I wrote discussions will heat up this week.  A key to this will be to bluff like they are going to franchise him.  Might be why they released Laken yesterday, to free up cap space available for franchising Huff.

2. Any acquiring team would negotiate with Huff on a long term contract.  They will not just take on a 1 year franchise.  I wrote ‘up to’ $20M.  With the cap going up as much as it did, teams will have money to spend and $20M average over 4 years is not the same as $21-23M cap this year.  Future money is discounted.  So yes, I see his upside as $20M.  Target definitely somewhere in the $15-$20M range.  

I’m on the fence if this will happen but explained why some teams might be willing to trade and then negotiate a long term deal.

We will see.  

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

1 hour ago, chirorob said:

So, you're saying the Jets will franchise Huff and trade him?

Because that is the only way he can be traded.

Yes, just clarified in the original post.  They will try to get something for him but I don’t think it will be a second rounder.

Why wouldn’t an interested  team (exclusively) buy low from the Jets if all the sharks are just waiting for him to be released.

If I was a GM who valued a young pass rusher who hasn’t reached his peak (he’s 25 as I type), I wouldn’t get too cute.  There is likely some price that makes sense and I believe it starts with a 3rd rounder.  

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

Think we need to pump the brakes on thinking Huff is Micah Parsons hitting free agency. 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

1 minute ago, SomebodytoAnybody47 said:

 

If that’s true, then the Jets should just sign him long term.  

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

1 minute ago, SomebodytoAnybody47 said:

Think we need to pump the brakes on thinking Huff is Micah Parsons hitting free agency. 

I will bet you 5 cents that some team will overpay if he hits free agency.

Willing to go as high as a dollar 

[Beerfish]

16 minutes ago, SomebodytoAnybody47 said:

 

That is certainly not a WOAH moment for me, that is about what I thought he'd get all along.

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Simple, because you might not be able to sign him when competing with a bunch of other teams who want him.

So you offer the Jets a fair deal (recognizing they aren't necessarily in a position of strength) to secure a soon to be 26 year old pass rusher who is on the upswing.  You know ... guys who typically aren't available.  In the meantime, you exclusively negotiate with Huff rather than getting into a risky bidding war later on.

This isn't that hard.

 

There's every likelihood the contract he gets will be less than the franchise tag amount that's typically used as a starting point for negotiations. He's never been a full time starter.

If the Jets tag him, he'll be on the Jets - and miserable & bitter about it - for one more year with a full $20MM+ cap number. A GM can't risk that with a player who's vocally said he wants to get away from the Jets' defense/system.

He wants to start.

He won't start here.

He's not getting tagged.

If they were going to tag him then it would've been done already.

 

 

 

 

(now watch him get tagged an hour from now just to make me look foolish)

[bonkertons]

I won’t pretend to understand the market for a franchised Huff but if JD is confident he can flip him, I’m all for it. Otherwise yeah, let him walk. It’s clear he’ll never be trusted as a 3-down lineman and giving him $20M to be a pass rush specialist when you just drafted McDonald and have a bunch of needs elsewhere doesn’t make much sense to me. 
 

Only way I see us keeping Huff is if the coaching staff has zero faith in McDonald, which I highly doubt to be the case. 

[varjet]

1 minute ago, bonkertons said:

I won’t pretend to understand the market for a franchised Huff but if JD is confident he can flip him, I’m all for it. Otherwise yeah, let him walk. It’s clear he’ll never be trusted as a 3-down lineman and giving him $20M to be a pass rush specialist when you just drafted McDonald and have a bunch of needs elsewhere doesn’t make much sense to me. 
 

Only way I see us keeping Huff is if the coaching staff has zero faith in McDonald, which I highly doubt to be the case. 

The Jets will wish they had Huff when they move to a Parcells/NEP 3-4 system next year with HC Vrabel.  

[Columbia Jet Fan]

I really don't know why Huff wouldn't command a salary somewhere between $15mm-$20mm or why he wouldn't be able to fetch SOMETHING in a tag and trade. 

If we sign any free agent of similar value we lose Huff's comp pick. Why let him walk for nothing? 

He ranks 8th in pass rush win rate per ESPN. He also has the lowest amount of plays in the top 10. For comparison TJ Watt has 296 plays vs Huffs 209. 

His advanced metrics for get off time and pass rushing efficiency are near the top of the league. 

Haason Reddick is a similar pass rushing specialist. He signed a three year 45mm deal in 2022 at the age of 28. Since then the cap has gone up ~20%. 

Reddick in 2022 had 448 pass rushing snaps - 40 hurries - 10 hits - 18 sacks - 68 pressures

Huff in 2023 had 334 pass rushing snaps - 45 hurries - 12 hits - 10 sacks - 67 pressures 

To compare Huff to the best pass rusher in the league - Micah Parsons

Parsons in 2023 had 513 pass rushing snaps - 69 hurries - 18 hits - 16 sacks - 103 pressure

If you assume Huff gets the same amount of snaps as Parsons his totals are 69 Hurries, 18 hits, 15 sacks - 103 pressures... basically the exact same as Parsons. 

Now Parsons is almost assuredly more of a focal point of the opposing team so double teams and such are likely in his favor...

However when Huff is on the field he pass rushes at an elite elite level. Even if he sucks against the run some team should be willing to give us some sort of compensation for him. 

[Sperm Edwards]

9 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

I won’t pretend to understand the market for a franchised Huff but if JD is confident he can flip him, I’m all for it. Otherwise yeah, let him walk. It’s clear he’ll never be trusted as a 3-down lineman and giving him $20M to be a pass rush specialist when you just drafted McDonald and have a bunch of needs elsewhere doesn’t make much sense to me. 
 

Only way I see us keeping Huff is if the coaching staff has zero faith in McDonald, which I highly doubt to be the case. 

Well he'd better have absolute knowledge of no less than two extremely interested teams - interested enough to give up at least something in return - because if it's just one team that interested then he could be stuck holding the hot potato as the leverage changes & he could end up with almost nothing after carrying Huff on a $20MM+ cap number through March & April when all the other FAs get scooped up.

[Guilhermezmc]

I would give him the JFM contract in a heart beat

[bla bla bla]

1 hour ago, SomebodytoAnybody47 said:

 

For what it's worth, guy I know with the Jets said he thought the Jets would offer $15m per and that they'd lose him for $18m+.

I'm not buying $12-14m

[JetPotato]

15 hours ago, Creepy Lurker said:

No one seems to understand this. You just see constant posts about comp picks. After all these years, you would think it would sink in and people would have a better understanding. 

If things really sank in and people had a better understanding, no one would even watch the Jets, ever.

[bla bla bla]

35 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Well he'd better have absolute knowledge of no less than two extremely interested teams - interested enough to give up at least something in return - because if it's just one team that interested then he could be stuck holding the hot potato as the leverage changes & he could end up with almost nothing after carrying Huff on a $20MM+ cap number through March & April when all the other FAs get scooped up.

IMO, you only franchise Huff if you are alright with keeping him for this year. Best case a trade worst case he plays for us.

IMO the transition tag should be used if his value is actually $12-14m per

[Beerfish]

If you are a pass rushing 'specialist' you need more than 10 sacks.

He is a small DE or an olb that might be a run defense liability.

It's chicken and egg with Huff, do you simply project him to get way more sacks if you give him more time?

To get the big contract he is going to have to show he can be that 15 plus sack player, which he has not done so so far. (Not his fault as the jets vastly over rotate players to the point of keeping their best players on the sideline.)

In any case they have a very large stake in Will McDonald, when you pick a guy 15th overall he needs to get lots of playing time and produce.

[NYJCAP2]

1 hour ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

I will bet you 5 cents that some team will overpay if he hits free agency.

Willing to go as high as a dollar 

I’m in

[bonkertons]

1 hour ago, varjet said:

The Jets will wish they had Huff when they move to a Parcells/NEP 3-4 system next year with HC Vrabel.  

Yeah I highly doubt our current regime is going to make a move just so their successors will be happy. 

 

Either way I hope to god that doesn't happen.  I ******* hate the 3-4.  Probably because my brain associates it with us trading away Vilma.  

 

...but yeah, if it comes down to it I've got my fingers crossed for an offensive coach who keeps Ulbrich on board.  Ideally Benny Johnson.  Worst case though, I think JJ and McDonald would be just fine as 3-4 OLBs.  I'd be more concerned about the DL, which would consist of Quinnen and.......that's it.  Maybe if JJ can bulk up even more he could stick there, but I doubt it. 

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, Guilhermezmc said:

I would give him the JFM contract in a heart beat

Even if that’s all he gets as a FA, it’s highly probable he won’t take that amount from the Jets, though. Not unless the 2nd-highest offer is @ $8-9MM per.

[83Kelly2Allen18]

You do not let borderline elite edge rushers who are 25 yrs old walk. Resigning him is a no brainer and Douglas should be fired immediately if he doesn't. 

 

This is like on page 1 of the NFL gm rulebook