The Great Pressure Rate Question

[T0mShane]

6 hours ago, Gastineau Lives said:

This is not me just being a Bowery Boy but can someone provide the numbers pertaining to pressure rate/sacks allowed? 
 

It seems, to me, that the perception is that if we  draft a tackle we will have an impenetrable wall the likes we haven’t seen since Berlin and if we don’t we might as well be starting an orange traffic cone to protect Rodgers blind side. 

How many pressures/sacks per say 100 drop backs is the difference between a top ten tackle and a bottom 10? 

I think it’s pertinent to the debate we’re having about the best way to approach the draft.

I’d like to address the question. Pressures allowed percentage for a lineman is analogous to yards per route run for a receiver. How efficient are they at the specific job they’re assigned to perform? The difference being, of course, every pressure a lineman gives up has the chance to end the Jets season whereas every yard Bowers doesn’t get as a receiver is like eight less yards on a given drive. 

[32EBoozer]

6 hours ago, T0mShane said:

The difference between last year’s TE yardage leader and Tyler Conklin was 24 yards per game receiving. 

So, two extra 1st downs created per game… if we really want to oversimplify. 😁

[Gastineau Lives]

3 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I’d like to address the question. Pressures allowed percentage for a lineman is analogous to yards per route run for a receiver. How efficient are they at the specific job they’re assigned to perform? The difference being, of course, every pressure a lineman gives up has the chance to end the Jets season whereas every yard Bowers doesn’t get as a receiver is like eight less yards on a given drive. 

Yeah but I thought one was da wall and the other was Rodgers getting Tecmo bowled on every play.

 

[HighPitch]

12 hours ago, Gastineau Lives said:

So the avg pass attempts is about 33 a game for the higher volume passers. So say 100 over a three game span. 
 

Top OT - 1 per game

Terrible OT- 2.3 per game

So basically one extra pressure per game. Am I oversimplifying this?

You might be because I actually pulled all of that data out of my butt hole

[HighPitch]

13 hours ago, HighPitch said:

The best 5 ots averages a 3.2% pressure rate. That is pressure…. NOT sacks

The bottom 5 starting ots in the league averaged a 6.9% pressure rate

Guys, I made all this up from the top of my head yo

[JustInFudge]

13 hours ago, T0mShane said:

The difference between last year’s TE yardage leader and Tyler Conklin was 24 yards per game receiving. 

Where did his 20% 1st down conversion rate and 0 TD's rank? 

[Gastineau Lives]

8 hours ago, T0mShane said:

You’re going to run twelve personnel with two smallish receiving TEs? 

He’s bigger than all of our linebackers and one of our defensive linemen and Tyler Conklin weighs 254 lbs

[Gastineau Lives]

47 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

Guys, I made all this up from the top of my head yo

Why not just type that you’re a bigger dick than people already think you are?

[slimjasi]

13 hours ago, GreenFish said:

Essentially, Bowers meeting expectations does not move the needle.

Same with OT. If we hit a HR, that player is not moving the needle. He would give us some long-term stability though.

Who does move the needle? A top WR replacing Allen Lazard’s 300 yards.

[Gastineau Lives]

2 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Is the gentleman in the photo Mike Williams?

[derp]

The Conklin stuff is silly. He’s one of the Jets’ four best skill position players.

The question isn’t Conklin vs. Bowers, it’s which pass catcher do you want lining up with Wilson, Williams, Hall, and Conklin.

Nabers is an explosive slot who you could move outside at times to kick Wilson to the slot.

Odunze would offer more of a traditional big outside receiver who could still play inside. Could shuffle the three around and have a good replacement for Williams if he gets hurt. Don’t think they’ll move up high enough to take Harrison but same general idea with more polish.

Thomas you’d just park outside and ask him to win deep and maybe do some gadget stuff while he develops. Don't think they’ll take him either. Call it the Christian Watson plan with Rodgers a couple years ago.

Bowers would be a big slot. Motion, gadget stuff, quick flip outs when mismatches are identified at the LOS to get YAC, wheel routes, mostly short dress of the field. Then you hope he develops as a route runner so he can do more traditional routes and ideally play some as an isolated receiver - though he’d still do some stuff he’s comfortable with early. 

As you move down to the guys around 72 it’s largely a less exciting version of the general concept of similar profiles (explosive slot, big slot, inside/out, outside).

[HighPitch]

16 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Why not just type that you’re a bigger dick than people already think you are?

I AM A BIGGER DICK THAN PEOPLE ALREADY THINK I AM

[Gastineau Lives]

20 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

I AM A BIGGER DICK THAN PEOPLE ALREADY THINK I AM

Was that so hard you child

[slimjasi]

45 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Is the gentleman in the photo Mike Williams?

[Larz]

Tyron Smith was basically best in the NFL last year 

[#27TheDominator]

13 hours ago, Bobby816 said:

Brown played 3 games last year. Come on now.

Let me start over and speak slowly.

You said: 

Quote

But Moses was playing with a torn pec the whole season.

So I said:

Quote

Didn't we try that excuse with Brown going into last year?

Meaning that plenty of people were saying that Brown had played with rotator cuff injury in 2022 and it was surgically repaired in the offseason, so the thought was he should be able to return for 2023 and probably least equal how well he played in 2022.  He did not.  You inexplicably responded:

Quote

The talent level between Smith and Brown is like saying Echols is Sauce

I'm not sure why the need to denigrate Brown who was a top level LT for 15 years.  Smith has been better but it is more like comparing Joe Haden and Revis than Echols and Sauce.  I simply pointed out:

Quote

Um, you were making the excuse for Moses and Duane Brown was a considerably better NFL tackle than Morgan Moses.

To which you responded the above.  I am seriously not sure what your point is, but Brown only playing 111 snaps does not help your argument.  Moses is an older player coming off an injury and you are counting on him to improve mightily for 2024.  When the Ravens happily moved on for peanuts.  Those that do not learn history are doomed to repeat it. How quickly you forgot.

[HighPitch]

21 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Was that so hard you child

 It was easy can you make me mac and cheese

[#27TheDominator]

13 hours ago, Alworth said:

My posts are clear that we stay put the choice should be either a quality WR or OL If the Big Three WR are gone we go OL and get a good one. it "Bit" can tell us the specifics of whom it might be under various no-WR scenarios.

Fair enough, but I don't know how you do that without putting your name to a lineman.  I kind of like more of what I read about Fuaga.  At least he is a big push in the run game and they seem to be going more towards power players, but a RT/G with questionable pass pro footwork at 10?  Seems to feed into the same discussion of positional value.  I don't see how you make that choice without knowing who is sitting there.  Just saying "TAKE OL!" and "Ask Bit"  seems silly.  If Alt drops?  I get it.  If Alt and Fashanu and Fuaga are gone?  Then what?  I think it is unlikely that all 3 WR and 2 or more OT are gone, but it might happen.

[Gastineau Lives]

9 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

 It was easy can you make me mac and cheese

The best you’ve ever had, slugger 

[#27TheDominator]

10 hours ago, T0mShane said:

You’re going to run twelve personnel with two smallish receiving TEs? 

I know @Gastineau Lives is trying to keep this from becoming another Bowers thread, but I don't think this is such a bad idea.  It's like having a bunch of guys that lineup in slot.  Keep the D guessing as to who is staying in and who is going out.  I compared what I would do with Bowers to Chan Gailey's use of Enunwa.  I think that is what they drafted Amaro to do.  Would these guys do that?  Who the **** knows?  I am totally clueless on any plan they may or may not have.

[T0mShane]

40 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I know @Gastineau Lives is trying to keep this from becoming another Bowers thread, but I don't think this is such a bad idea.  It's like having a bunch of guys that lineup in slot.  Keep the D guessing as to who is staying in and who is going out.  I compared what I would do with Bowers to Chan Gailey's use of Enunwa.  I think that is what they drafted Amaro to do.  Would these guys do that?  Who the **** knows?  I am totally clueless on any plan they may or may not have.

Eh. It’s putting two lesser athletes on the field at the same time who don’t move the needle in the run game. Safeties creep up, the nickel guy swamps Bowers, options get limited. I feel like the Bills tried this last year and ultimately found out that they were much better off with Khalil Shakir in the slot instead of Kincaid 

[chirorob]

15 hours ago, Alworth said:

 The Bowers upgrade is close to a luxury,, offset only by the fact that here would be cap benefit if cut Conklin, and both cap benefit and some modest draft capital if we could trade him. OTOH getting quality OT or WR depth, and starting to build for the future at rookie contract prices in these areas, is a necessity.

Cutting Conklin would not be wise.

Let him play, you need an experienced tight end, rookie tight ends often have a rough time (yes, not always).  Conklin is also bigger than Bowers, and from what I have seen a better blocker.  If you let him go after the season, maybe you get a comp pick for him, or at least he goes into the comp pick pool.

IF you draft Bowers (I'd go WR or tackle) you can get creative.  Run some 2 tight end packages with him and Conklin, run him as the big slot, you can motion him, do whatever.  In addition, while Bowers may not be a great blocker, if the other team throws a nickle corner at him, he should be able to dominate that player and you can run Breece outside a bit.

[LionelRichie]

16 hours ago, Gastineau Lives said:

This is not me just being a Bowery Boy but can someone provide the numbers pertaining to pressure rate/sacks allowed? 
 

It seems, to me, that the perception is that if we  draft a tackle we will have an impenetrable wall the likes we haven’t seen since Berlin and if we don’t we might as well be starting an orange traffic cone to protect Rodgers blind side. 

How many pressures/sacks per say 100 drop backs is the difference between a top ten tackle and a bottom 10? 

I think it’s pertinent to the debate we’re having about the best way to approach the draft.

Basically, the NYJ have a brittle OL and play on the worst turf in the league.   It's not even an if, it's a when they lose multiple starters on the OL do they have an NFL ready replacement or are they scraping practice squads and street FA's to protect the season which is Rodgers health?    Also both OT's are on 1 year deals so getting a swing tackle sets the team up for the future.   

Bowers doesn't have the athleticism and isn't nearly the mismatch Pitts was/is and he isn't the difference maker people projected him to be, although taking an H back at 10 is the Jetsiest thing I can think of.   

JD knows this is his last chance, he's moving up for one of the big 3 and this is going to be an explosive offense with 3 players who can score any time they touch the ball.   That's a lot to defend and something we haven't seen from the NYJ in my lifetime. 

 

[Alka]

17 hours ago, Gastineau Lives said:

This is not me just being a Bowery Boy but can someone provide the numbers pertaining to pressure rate/sacks allowed? 
 

It seems, to me, that the perception is that if we  draft a tackle we will have an impenetrable wall the likes we haven’t seen since Berlin and if we don’t we might as well be starting an orange traffic cone to protect Rodgers blind side. 

How many pressures/sacks per say 100 drop backs is the difference between a top ten tackle and a bottom 10? 

I think it’s pertinent to the debate we’re having about the best way to approach the draft.

It's not just sacks or pressures allowed, but it's run blocking as well.  Last year, our running backs had to create yardage in many games.  If we can't block well enough to utilize the running game effectively, that in turn will hamper the passing game.  The "imprenetrable" wall as you say, can leak very badly when our left or right tackle go down in injury, or both at the same time go down.  That is when you need a solid guy to come in and hold the fort.  

[Gastineau Lives]

7 minutes ago, Alka said:

It's not just sacks or pressures allowed, but it's run blocking as well.  Last year, our running backs had to create yardage in many games.  If we can't block well enough to utilize the running game effectively, that in turn will hamper the passing game.  The "imprenetrable" wall as you say, can leak very badly when our left or right tackle go down in injury, or both at the same time go down.  That is when you need a solid guy to come in and hold the fort.  

1) The most common argument I hear for drafting an OT is that otherwise we’re getting Rodgers killed.

2) It seems that some of the OTs available are good at pass blocking, others better run blocking. I may be wrong but this is my perception.

[Jetsfan80]

11 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

1) The most common argument I hear for drafting an OT is that otherwise we’re getting Rodgers killed.

2) It seems that some of the OTs available are good at pass blocking, others better run blocking. I may be wrong but this is my perception.

Half these OTs likely ending up trash is a relevant argument for taking the TE instead.  It's even more relevant for taking a WR (a premium position) as well.  But if the top-flight WRs are all gone.....

Also, our supposed OL guru needs to be able to figure out how to make this OL work without using yet another 1st rounder.  That's another strong reason not to take an OT at 10.

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

Eh. It’s putting two lesser athletes on the field at the same time who don’t move the needle in the run game. Safeties creep up, the nickel guy swamps Bowers, options get limited. I feel like the Bills tried this last year and ultimately found out that they were much better off with Khalil Shakir in the slot instead of Kincaid 

It really makes you wonder how Georgia was the best running team in the country while Bowers was there and never coming off the field.  Those poor Georgia RB's, probably felt like the were running 8  vs. 11 out there! 

 

[Alka]

18 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

1) The most common argument I hear for drafting an OT is that otherwise we’re getting Rodgers killed.

2) It seems that some of the OTs available are good at pass blocking, others better run blocking. I may be wrong but this is my perception.

I will take your issues in order:

1.  Can you imagine if multiple linemen go down this year, like last year?  Zach might have sucked, but he was a mobile QB. At 40 years of age, and going on 41, Rodgers has always been a pocket passer, and really does need a solid line to protect him.  I don't trust Warren, who only played in a handful of games last year, to come in and adequately protect Rodgers for multiple games.  Max was not good last year.  I really don't think this is a luxury pick, but a necessary one.  Both guys missed games last year, Moses missing 3 games, and coming back from surgery, and Tyron missing 4 games last season.  They are both a year older, and both at 33 years of age, one 1 year deals.

2. If you are getting a 1st round talent at O tackle, you are getting the best available for this upcoming year.  Yes, some are better than others in either pass or run blocking, but if we don't draft one of these guys in round #1, then what do you propose?  Drafting one in the 3rd round, where the potential might be there for development, but these prospects will have even more question marks than the one we can get at #10.  I think that the Jets can not afford to get a 2nd or 3rd tier O tackle for this upcoming season, when we need someone who can step right in when we need him, and keep this offense running smoothly.

[FootballLove]

Talking head on Sirius NFL 88 was saying a sack and TFL are essentially the same (they were discussing a draft prospect with lots of TFLs, but not many sacks).

On the surface, he's right. Both result in loss of yards, and both result in loss of down. Similar?

Ya, but here's the rub. With a TFL, the defender is tackling a RB who's expecting to get tackled. But a sack? The defender is crushing a player who expects to never get touched. Defenses celebrate a sack, while the o-lineman slink away. A sack is a huge boost for one side, while a real downer for the other, way more than a TFL.

Plus a good sack or two can damage the QBs psyche for the rest of the game. I'd even take a good QB hit over a TFL.

 

[Gastineau Lives]

31 minutes ago, Alka said:

I will take your issues in order:

1.  Can you imagine if multiple linemen go down this year, like last year?  Zach might have sucked, but he was a mobile QB. At 40 years of age, and going on 41, Rodgers has always been a pocket passer, and really does need a solid line to protect him.  I don't trust Warren, who only played in a handful of games last year, to come in and adequately protect Rodgers for multiple games.  Max was not good last year.  I really don't think this is a luxury pick, but a necessary one.  Both guys missed games last year, Moses missing 3 games, and coming back from surgery, and Tyron missing 4 games last season.  They are both a year older, and both at 33 years of age, one 1 year deals.

2. If you are getting a 1st round talent at O tackle, you are getting the best available for this upcoming year.  Yes, some are better than others in either pass or run blocking, but if we don't draft one of these guys in round #1, then what do you propose?  Drafting one in the 3rd round, where the potential might be there for development, but these prospects will have even more question marks than the one we can get at #10.  I think that the Jets can not afford to get a 2nd or 3rd tier O tackle for this upcoming season, when we need someone who can step right in when we need him, and keep this offense running smoothly.

You're going on the premise that the second, third or fourth rated tackle will just step into the NFL and be a significant upgrade over someone you have on the roster, which also brings us to the point of the whole thread. How much better will this player be at protecting Rodgers in case a tackle goes down? Again, it feels like the perception is that with the drafted tackle you have a force field around Rodgers and without the drafted tackle you have a bukkake on the QB on every play. 

Trusting a rookie tackle to keep the offense running smoothly is wildly optimistic especially since you can't even agree on who the best one is.

[Alka]

2 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

You're going on the premise that the second, third or fourth rated tackle will just step into the NFL and be a significant upgrade over someone you have on the roster, which also brings us to the point of the whole thread. How much better will this player be at protecting Rodgers in case a tackle goes down? Again, it feels like the perception is that with the drafted tackle you have a force field around Rodgers and without the drafted tackle you have a bukkake on the QB on every play. 

Trusting a rookie tackle to keep the offense running smoothly is wildly optimistic especially since you can't even agree on who the best one is.

Yes, I am going on the premise that the guy we choose at #10 is significantly better than either Warren or Max.  Carter Warren was injured at the start of last season, and only played in 8 games, of which he started in 2.  In 401 offensive snaps, he had 2 penalties and gave up 5 sacks.  His overall PFF player grade was a very disappointing 46.9.  His play was somewhat underwhelming, if we are being honest.  Max Mitchell, if I am judging by the eye test, was garbage last year.  He took a giant step backwards from the year before.

I expect a huge upgrade on one of the 3 top offensive tackles in this years draft.  This is a huge reason why we should draft one at the #10 spot.  Of course their will be growing pains, but the growing pains should be short, since they are so highly thought of.

[Alworth]

2 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

Fair enough, but I don't know how you do that without putting your name to a lineman.  I kind of like more of what I read about Fuaga.  At least he is a big push in the run game and they seem to be going more towards power players, but a RT/G with questionable pass pro footwork at 10?  Seems to feed into the same discussion of positional value.  I don't see how you make that choice without knowing who is sitting there.  Just saying "TAKE OL!" and "Ask Bit"  seems silly.  If Alt drops?  I get it.  If Alt and Fashanu and Fuaga are gone?  Then what?  I think it is unlikely that all 3 WR and 2 or more OT are gone, but it might happen.

And it's also fair that you are asking me to cover my bases, so I hope the following is enough for you; (1) I'm totally good with any of Alt, Furaga or Fashanu and (2) it would take both of the following for one of them to not be there--(A) no one bites on McCarthy and (B) no one bites on any D player. I think that makes the need for a contingency plan very, very unlikely. But if we do need one, there are "non-busty" OL and WR that we can take in a trade down if we take less than value in service of the pressing need for more OL and WRs. Bowers may or may not be BAP relative to all of them, but this draft isn't about BAP for us. 

[Gastineau Lives]

10 minutes ago, Alka said:

Yes, I am going on the premise that the guy we choose at #10 is significantly better than either Warren or Max.  Carter Warren was injured at the start of last season, and only played in 8 games, of which he started in 2.  In 401 offensive snaps, he had 2 penalties and gave up 5 sacks.  His overall PFF player grade was a very disappointing 46.9.  His play was somewhat underwhelming, if we are being honest.  Max Mitchell, if I am judging by the eye test, was garbage last year.  He took a giant step backwards from the year before.

I expect a huge upgrade on one of the 3 top offensive tackles in this years draft.  This is a huge reason why we should draft one at the #10 spot.  Of course their will be growing pains, but the growing pains should be short, since they are so highly thought of.

Alt is not going to be there. So you mean one of the other three. 

So Latham, Fuaga, Fashanu or Fautanu. So you actually mean anyone from 2-5 

[Bobby816]

3 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

Let me start over and speak slowly.

You said: 

So I said:

Meaning that plenty of people were saying that Brown had played with rotator cuff injury in 2022 and it was surgically repaired in the offseason, so the thought was he should be able to return for 2023 and probably least equal how well he played in 2022.  He did not.  You inexplicably responded:

I'm not sure why the need to denigrate Brown who was a top level LT for 15 years.  Smith has been better but it is more like comparing Joe Haden and Revis than Echols and Sauce.  I simply pointed out:

To which you responded the above.  I am seriously not sure what your point is, but Brown only playing 111 snaps does not help your argument.  Moses is an older player coming off an injury and you are counting on him to improve mightily for 2024.  When the Ravens happily moved on for peanuts.  Those that do not learn history are doomed to repeat it. How quickly you forgot.

No I expect him to return to his 2022 level when he was healthy.

[Alworth]

2 hours ago, chirorob said:

Cutting Conklin would not be wise.

Let him play, you need an experienced tight end, rookie tight ends often have a rough time (yes, not always).  Conklin is also bigger than Bowers, and from what I have seen a better blocker.  If you let him go after the season, maybe you get a comp pick for him, or at least he goes into the comp pick pool.

IF you draft Bowers (I'd go WR or tackle) you can get creative.  Run some 2 tight end packages with him and Conklin, run him as the big slot, you can motion him, do whatever.  In addition, while Bowers may not be a great blocker, if the other team throws a nickle corner at him, he should be able to dominate that player and you can run Breece outside a bit.

 I'm talking about cutting or trading Conklin only if we draft Bowers. Unless one thinks that the 2 TE is the absolute "light and the way" then Conklin causes too much cap to be tied up at TE. And remember, we have Ruckert to be Robin to Bower's Batman for 2 TE sets.