Need an ESPN Insider... Divergent Paths for Greene, Sanchez

[ZachEY]

The article below, which I can't access talks about Greene as the real deal, and Sanchez as Jamarcus Russel 2.0... Someone has to have access to this that can post it.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2009/insider/news/story?id=4838995&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnfl%2fplayoffs%2f2009%2finsider%2fnews%2fstory%3fid%3d4838995

[Matt39]

I have it, one second.

(That former drug addict that sold me the ESPN magazine subscription is really paying off these days)

[Matt39]

Full article

Getty ImagesIn a way, this is like JaMarcus Russell handing off to Frank Gore. Wait, what?

Each week of this NFL season, Vince Verhei of Football Outsiders analyzed the biggest upset of the weekend and what it meant for each squad going forward. This week -- in the final edition for 2009-10 -- he looks at the New York Jets defeating the San Diego Chargers -- and what we should be thinking about Jets building blocks Mark Sanchez and Shonn Greene.

The New York Jets' stalwart defense has carried rookies at both quarterback and running back to within one game of the Super Bowl; the Jets had better make this playoff run count, however, because while Shonn Greene looks like he'll be a good player for years, there are signs of a bleak future ahead for Mark Sanchez.

Sanchez is already the youngest quarterback since at least 1960 to win two games in a single postseason; he'll be the youngest to win three or four if the Jets' hot streak continues. His performance in San Diego, however, was historically inept. Sanchez threw for only 100 yards on 23 attempts, a woeful average of 4.4 yards per attempt. Since 1978, 119 quarterbacks have thrown at least 10 passes in a playoff game and averaged less than 5 yards per attempt; only 29 of them, including Sanchez, were lucky enough to win.

Greene, meanwhile, is only the fifth rookie to post two 100-yard games in the playoffs. Coincidentally, three of the other four men to pull this off -- Jamal Lewis, Curt Warner and Ickey Woods -- tore their ACLs the next season, and combined to play only three games in their sophomore seasons. The fourth, Duane Thomas, saw a promising career ruined by contract squabbles with the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins.

Two games, though, is a small sample size. Looking at the 16-game regular season will give us a better idea of how Sanchez and Green have played. We can put their statistics into context by using Football Outsiders' similarity scores. Similarity scores were first invented by baseball expert Bill James and have since been used by countless analysts in multiple sports. At Football Outsiders, our methodology analyzes not just yards and touchdowns -- but also age and experience. We usually examine players in two- or three-year chunks, although we obviously can't do that for Sanchez and Greene.

For Sanchez, we're limiting our sample to players who were first-year starters. Now, regardless of which team each Football Outsiders writer cheers for, we are all football fans first; we want to see good young players succeed. So imagine our horror when the closest match for Sanchez turned out to be current Raiders punch line JaMarcus Russell.

In 2008, Russell completed 198 of 368 passes for 2,423 yards and 13 TDs (with 8 INTs). This season, Sanchez went 196-for-364 for 2,444 yards, 12 TDs and 20 INTs. Their completion percentages were identical (ahhh!): both at 53.8 percent.

Russell started 15 games at age 23 in 2008; Sanchez started 15 games at age 23 in 2009. The biggest difference is in interceptions, where Sanchez was significantly worse, throwing 20 interceptions to Russell's eight.

Other players similar to Sanchez give little reason for hope. The best of the bunch are Jim Everett and Neil Lomax. There are also former first-rounders like Byron Leftwich, Tim Couch and Matt Leinart -- and then you get guys like Tony Banks, Scott Campbell and Billy Joe Tolliver.

Obviously, this is one year, and Sanchez was drafted higher than most of these comparable players for a reason. He has more potential. But except for the wild-card win against Cincinnati, he really hasn't shown it.

Greene's list of comparables is much more impressive; the best of the bunch is Frank Gore. Terry Allen went over 1,000 yards four times. Tatum Bell, Harvey Williams and Napoleon Kaufman each had a 1,000-yard season despite sharing time in crowded backfields. Fred McAfee never made it as a running back, but lasted 16 years as a special teamer. Greene's other four comparables -- Joe Carter, Jamie Mueller, Irving Spikes and David Overstreet -- never amounted to much. (Overstreet tragically died in a car accident after his rookie season, and never had a chance to develop.)

Greene nearly set a record for one-dimensionality this season, rushing for 540 yards without catching a single pass. That's the second-highest total since 1978; Andra Franklin had 746 yards (and no catches) for the Dolphins in 1983.

Greene outperformed Thomas Jones all year long. Jones ranked just 32nd among running backs in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average, FO's exclusive metric that analyzes every play of the NFL season and adjusts it for down, distance, score, field position, quality of opponent and other factors), while Greene was 19th. Greene had a higher success rate (percentage of carries that gain meaningful yardage) than Jones, and also topped him in both second-level yards (5 to 10 yards past the line of scrimmage) and open-field yards (10 or more yards downfield) per carry.

Against San Diego, the Jets had a lot more success when they abandoned the outside run and went straight up the gut. They averaged 5.7 yards per carry between the tackles, but just 2.1 yards to either side. That's nothing new for a team with a dominant interior line; the Jets were ninth overall in ALY (adjusted line yards, FO's metric that attempts to separate the performance of an offensive line from its running back), but 29th running to left end, 23rd running to the right. They should stick with that philosophy against the Colts, a defense that emphasizes speed over power.

[ZachEY]

Full article

Rep'd.

Thx.

[Vudu]

lol really, so Mark Sanchez is 60 minutes away from going tot he SUperbowl and he's Jamarcus Russell? These ESPN writers are so lazy.

[Klecko73isGod]

The article below, which I can't access talks about Greene as the real deal, and Sanchez as Jamarcus Russel 2.0... Someone has to have access to this that can post it.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2009/insider/news/story?id=4838995&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnfl%2fplayoffs%2f2009%2finsider%2fnews%2fstory%3fid%3d4838995

I saw part of that last night. It has to do with some ridiculous overanalysis by Football Outsiders.

It is based on the assumption that a player can't improve their performance through practice and film study and that past performance is the only indicator of future success or failure.

In other words, it's complete bull**** that discounts a couple of major differences between Sanchez and Russell - 1. Sanchez gives a crap, Russell clearly does not; 2. Sanchez has quality coaches around him, Russell clearly does not; 3. Sanchez plays for a quality organization that is going to do whatever they can to ensure a successful career for their investment, Russell plays for the worst organization in sports.

[Matt39]

I'd agree the article is pretty ridiculous.

Problem is with these sabr stats and such is that they treat sports like theyre played in a bubble or vacuum.

Just because Sanchez's first year can be compared to Russells, in the long run it really means nada.

[Vudu]

I'd agree the article is pretty ridiculous.

Problem is with these sabr stats and such is that they treat sports like theyre played in a bubble or vacuum.

Just because Sanchez's first year can be compared to Russells, in the long run it really means nada.

Mark Sanchez will have some bling bling on his finger in his first year. Not comparable in the least. Jamarcus Russel will never sniff the playoffs.

[ZachEY]

I disagree from the start. Where they say that Sanchez's performance was historically inept.

He didn't light it up by any means, but he stayed within the game plan, and made a great play to throw a TD. He had a few nice tosses to cotch as well.

His performance, while by no means special, served the game plan of bust them with the run, and use short passes when necessary.

The big difference, as I see it, is whereas he used to be costing us games, now he's doing just enough to allow us to win them.

[aec4]

lol really, so Mark Sanchez is 60 minutes away from going tot he SUperbowl and he's Jamarcus Russell? These ESPN writers are so lazy.

except he's not an espn writer. He's a writer for Football Outsiders.

They use stats and stats only to analyze. What they miss is JaMarcus Russell's team did not have a killer rush offense and a killer D. Sanchez is "managing the game." ala Trent Dilfer because they know they can win this way. He's a rookie. He doesn't have any weapons that can stretch the field (well he has one, but that one can't catch).

[Klecko73isGod]

except he's not an espn writer. He's a writer for Football Outsiders.

They use stats and stats only to analyze. What they miss is JaMarcus Russell's team did not have a killer rush offense and a killer D. Sanchez is "managing the game." ala Trent Dilfer because they know they can win this way. He's a rookie. He doesn't have any weapons that can stretch the field (well he has one, but that one can't catch).

Actually what they are doing is foolishly assuming that since Sanchez had the same completion percentage as a rookie as Russell that means he will be no better than Russell, which is moronic on a variety of levels.

[slats]

lol really, so Mark Sanchez is 60 minutes away from going tot he SUperbowl and he's Jamarcus Russell? These ESPN writers are so lazy.

At least they're kind enough to add:

Obviously, this is one year, and Sanchez was drafted higher than most of these comparable players for a reason. He has more potential. But except for the wild-card win against Cincinnati, he really hasn't shown it.

But the thing to keep in mind with Football Outsiders is that they are purely about football statistics. They have their DVOA metrics that they love to brag about as the greatest thing since the QB rating system, but it's all just a numbers game.

I'm holding out hope for Sanchez. He's still severely inexperienced, although this season is going a long ways towards changing that. He tried to do too much early on, and the coaches have reeled him in - maybe a little too far. But they're winning, so they're not screwing with that formula for now. Gotta wonder how those stats would look if Braylon could catch a perfectly thrown long ball. Sanchez's ypa and TD's would both be higher.

Greene could go his whole career without catching a pass playing for Schottenheimer. Stay tuned.

[aec4]

Actually what they are doing is foolishly assuming that since Sanchez had the same completion percentage as a rookie as Russell that means he will be no better than Russell, which is moronic on a variety of levels.

Agreed, and it is what I tried to say. They are comparing 2 totally different situations.

Until JaMarcus Russell goes 12-15 for 182 and wins a playoff game for his team, I don't want to hear anything.

[CTM]

Actually what they are doing is foolishly assuming that since Sanchez had the same completion percentage as a rookie as Russell that means he will be no better than Russell, which is moronic on a variety of levels.

Except of course that it's been reinforced time after time after time..

If Sanchez was on the lions, he'd have made Russel look like a all-pro. Where sanchez is unique is that he plays on a team thats good enough to win despite him, which should improve his long term prospects as he doesn't get brow-beaten for losing

[SMC]

Who cares?

Sanchez could be the 1st QB bust to go to the HOF with 3 SB rings.

[JohnnyHector]

I disagree from the start. Where they say that Sanchez's performance was historically inept.

I think his 12 TD/20 INT line is the worst TD-INT ratio of a 16-game starter since Richard Todd went 17/30 in 1980, so it's not really far fetched to call it "historically inept".

[Klecko73isGod]

Except of course that it's been reinforced time after time after time..

If Sanchez was on the lions, he'd have made Russel look like a all-pro. Where sanchez is unique is that he plays on a team thats good enough to win despite him, which should improve his long term prospects as he doesn't get brow-beaten for losing

Not really. Lovers of Football Outsiders like you can even admit in this case that they clearly skewed the sample to support their conclusions.

[CTM]

Greene outperformed Thomas Jones all year long. Jones ranked just 32nd among running backs in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average, FO's exclusive metric that analyzes every play of the NFL season and adjusts it for down, distance, score, field position, quality of opponent and other factors), while Greene was 19th. Greene had a higher success rate (percentage of carries that gain meaningful yardage) than Jones, and also topped him in both second-level yards (5 to 10 yards past the line of scrimmage) and open-field yards (10 or more yards downfield) per carry.

So glad Rex is sensible enough to go with the better player. Herm would've been running Jones fulltime and we'd have lost

[CTM]

Not really. Lovers of Football Outsiders like you can even admit in this case that they clearly skewed the sample to support their conclusions.

Continue to thumb your nose at science all you want barbarian. Your side usually loses

[Klecko73isGod]

Continue to thumb your nose at science all you want barbarian. Your side usually loses

Pfffft. These scientists. They say they're workin' for us, but what they really want is to rule the world!

[SMC]

I think his 12 TD/20 INT line is the worst TD-INT ratio of a 16-game starter since Richard Todd went 17/30 in 1980, so it's not really far fetched to call it "historically inept".

You must have slept through the article, JH.

The author called Sanchez's performance IN SAN DIEGO historically "inept."

The author wasn't referring to the season.

[JohnnyHector]

You must have slept through the article, JH.

The author called Sanchez's performance IN SAN DIEGO historically "inept."

The author wasn't referring to the season.

You're absolutely right... I skipped down to where they were making the comparison to Russell.

Oh, well... at least I got to throw in that statistic somewhere.

[Lupz27]

I'd agree the article is pretty ridiculous.

Problem is with these sabr stats and such is that they treat sports like theyre played in a bubble or vacuum.

Just because Sanchez's first year can be compared to Russells, in the long run it really means nada.

If that is really the front cover of SI in your Avatar then the Jets and Sanchez are ****ed with the SI curse.

[Sperm Edwards]

Pfffft. These scientists. They say they're workin' for us, but what they really want is to rule the world!

Hey there, handsome.

[SMC]

I'm fascinated by how they can project an NFL QB's future based solely on how that QB performed his rookie season.

[Klecko73isGod]

I'm fascinated by how they can project an NFL QB's future based solely on how that QB performed his rookie season.

And take nothing into account other than how he compared to another QB who played for a different team with a different system.

Very scientific.

[Vicious89x]

I'm fascinated by how they can project an NFL QB's future based solely on how that QB performed his rookie season.

I REALLY REALLY REALLY REALLY REALLY REALLY hate to say this but there is one thing that Sanchez has that Russell doesn't:

Intangibles. :bag:

He works hard, cares, and is a dedicated professional at a young age. Russell was a kid who had an impressive physical skill set that got a fat contract that he's currently using to the fullest.

Sanchez in my opinion, has that drive within him to become better at everything.

[serphnx]

I commented on this on the other Jets board, and I'm too lazy to re-paste everything. First of all, didn't Russell hold out and not even play his 1st year? So comparing Sanchez to a 2nd year player is already bull****.

But what about guys with WORSE stats than Russell that had great careers? I specifically mentioned and pasted Aikman and Elways stats, guys that started in their first years. Someone else can paste the stats here, that's pretty much all you need to discredit the article. This is just another biased article that has zero journalistic integrity, and yet another reason why nobody should listen to these idiots.

Some morons will read this article and put this on Sanchez too, hopefully by now he knows to ignore the idiocy of the haters. He should just read JN instead where most of us support him, especially now. Some got on the bandwagon later than others, but there's still room, everyone jump on.

[The Troll]

If Sanchez could throw 8 INTs every year like Russell did in 2008, then I'll gladly sign up for that.

And Thomas Jones as the 32nd ranked running back made me lol.

[Matt39]

I commented on this on the other Jets board, and I'm too lazy to re-paste everything. First of all, didn't Russell hold out and not even play his 1st year? So comparing Sanchez to a 2nd year player is already bull****.

But what about guys with WORSE stats than Russell that had great careers? I specifically mentioned and pasted Aikman and Elways stats, guys that started in their first years. Someone else can paste the stats here, that's pretty much all you need to discredit the article. This is just another biased article that has zero journalistic integrity, and yet another reason why nobody should listen to these idiots.

Some morons will read this article and put this on Sanchez too, hopefully by now he knows to ignore the idiocy of the haters. He should just read JN instead where most of us support him, especially now. Some got on the bandwagon later than others, but there's still room, everyone jump on.

Its not biased, its just stupid. The football outsiders guys dont even watch the games....its just crunching numbers and comparing Sanchez's to others like they play in a vacuum.

[Arsis]

Continue to thumb your nose at science all you want barbarian. Your side usually loses

Science has become a religion. Here is a helpful hint for you. Science is wrong more often than it is right. Science tells us to eat stuff that makes us fat and gives us cancer and take meds that kills us. HOORAY SCIENCE!

[CTM]

Its not biased, its just stupid. The football outsiders guys dont even watch the games....its just crunching numbers and comparing Sanchez's to others like they play in a vacuum.

a) If you were even slightly familiar with there stuff you'd know they definitely watch the games

Adding environment into the discussion just makes Sanchez look worse

My own opinion is that Sanchez being able to be on a winner will go along way towards his development. He basically gets to learn by playing and not have his confidence crushed in the process.

[ZachEY]

I think his 12 TD/20 INT line is the worst TD-INT ratio of a 16-game starter since Richard Todd went 17/30 in 1980, so it's not really far fetched to call it "historically inept".

I was referencing his performance against the Chargers.

[SenorGato]

Wow what a sh*tty article.

The sad thing is that there's probably someone out there like "I believe it." I expect better from the FO guys man...

[CTM]

Science has become a religion. Here is a helpful hint for you. Science is wrong more often than it is right.

Being wrong and then correcting is part of the scientific process.

Science tells us to eat stuff that makes us fat and gives us cancer and take meds that kills us. HOORAY SCIENCE!

Histrionics aside, I'm sure you'd have been much better off living 2000 years ago when life expectancy was less then half of what it is now..