Need an ESPN Insider... Divergent Paths for Greene, Sanchez

[Matt39]

a) If you were even slightly familiar with there stuff you'd know they definitely watch the games

Adding environment into the discussion just makes Sanchez look worse

My own opinion is that Sanchez being able to be on a winner will go along way towards his development. He basically gets to learn by playing and not have his confidence crushed in the process.

Do you think Sanchez is playing well right now?

And I dont see how they watch the games. To compare Sanchez to Russell is just beyond stupid.

Then to compare Greene to guys that all tore their ACL the next season like it means anything is absurd.

[Arsis]

Being wrong and then correcting is part of the scientific process.

Histrionics aside, I'm sure you'd have been much better off living 2000 years ago when life expectancy was less then half of what it is now..

At least I wouldn't have to deal with 20 years of heart attacks, senility, Alzheimers, adult diapers and old folks homes.

[124]

Yeah, Sanchez has sure looked like JaMarcus Russell since we turned it around at 4-6.

I mean, clearly JaMarcus Russell could win 7 of 8.

[Scott Dierking]

In baseball when they use these formulas to compare players it is just silly.

In football, it is downright stupid.

These things are developed for people who can not articulate performance with their eyes.

[johnny green balls]

i'll take W's over stats. the kid is a rookie. i still don't think he has the strongest arm in the world but he's got confidence and at the QB position, first round picks thrive or perish on how their confidence is after their first year as a starter.

[CTM]

At least I wouldn't have to deal with 20 years of heart attacks, senility, Alzheimers, adult diapers and old folks homes.

but you'd be dead @25-30

[Matt39]

In baseball when they use these formulas to compare players it is just silly.

In football, it is downright stupid.

These things are developed for people who can not articulate performance with their eyes.

Often times in baseball your eyes can lie. Espeically over a 162 game season.

However, to bring this into football, where watching the games is the only way to judge a player it doesnt work.

[Sperm Edwards]

Histrionics aside, I'm sure you'd have been much better off living 2000 years ago when life expectancy was less then half of what it is now..

Booooo antibiotics!

[Arsis]

but you'd be dead @25-30

I'm very happy for the scientific invention of indoors. It's awesome. I'm still not going to elevate science to the status of God. You can worship at the altar of science all you know. I will appreciate it while understanding it's limitations. Also have a little fun with the philosophy of science. Cool stuff. My first point about the majority of science being false or false science is still accurate.

[CTM]

Do you think Sanchez is playing well right now?

And I dont see how they watch the games. To compare Sanchez to Russell is just beyond stupid.

Then to compare Greene to guys that all tore their ACL the next season like it means anything is absurd.

He's playing well in comparison to how awful he played during the season. He's playing well considering he's a rookie. He's not playing well though when compared to upper echelon types of QB's.. And i suspect that we'll all see that the minute we face a team (like Minn) that can shut down our running game without overselling on it..

[SenorGato]

In baseball when they use these formulas to compare players it is just silly.

In football, it is downright stupid.

These things are developed for people who can not articulate performance with their eyes.

In baseball it makes sense. Individuals doing individual things can be quantified. It's easy to quantify that a guy got X amount of hits in Y amount of plate appearances. It's easy to figure out that a pitcher strikes out X amount of guys per inning.

Football on the other hand...it's to convoluted.

99% of people can't articulate performance ACCURATELY with their eyes.

I'm really disappointed in the FO guys on this because this is very ESPN-y. It's built to shock you rather than inform you.

[Arsis]

He's playing well in comparison to how awful he played during the season. He's playing well considering he's a rookie. He's not playing well though when compared to upper echelon types of QB's.. And i suspect that we'll all see that the minute we face a team (like Minn) that can shut down our running game without overselling on it..

Sanchez will be fine.

[SMC]

CTM, what's with the science debate?

You're making the false assumption that the author used the proper scientific methodology, when he didn't.

And, Arsis, science isn't "wrong" more often than it is right. Science screws up when the wrong scientific methodology is used.

Back to CTM, the author compared Sanchez's rookie year with other 1st year starters regardless of whether that 1st year starting came rookie year or in the 4th year.

Thus, the author compared Sanchez's year to Russell's 2nd year in the NFL (Russell didn't start his rookie year, but did play in December). FBO disregarded Russell's rookie year since that was not the 1st year he was started. Thus, FBO also disregarded Eli's rookie year since he didn't start the year as the starter.

So, CTM, do you believe that was proper methodology?

[Arsis]

CTM, what's with the science debate?

You're making the false assumption that the author used the proper scientific methodology, when he didn't.

And, Arsis, science isn't "wrong" more often than it is right. Science screws up when the wrong scientific methodology is used.

Back to CTM, the author compared Sanchez's rookie year with other 1st year starters regardless of whether that 1st year starting came rookie year or in the 4th year.

Thus, the author compared Sanchez's year to Russell's 2nd year in the NFL (Russell didn't start his rookie year, but did play in December). FBO disregarded Russell's rookie year since that was not the 1st year he was started. Thus, FBO also disregarded Eli's rookie year since he didn't start the year as the starter.

So, CTM, do you believe that was proper methodology?

You can't cherry pick. You're creating one of the problems of scientific demarcation on a smaller scale. What is science and what is not science? Also, what is the proper scientific method? The ideal of science is much better than the practice of science. Especially the blind faith people put into it.

[serphnx]

lol Science can't even make up its mind on how many planets there are.

[RutgersJetFan]

If the Jets make the Super Bowl, Sanchez's career can bottom out worse than Christian Slater's did and I'd still love that little Mexican bastard.

[JohnnyHector]

I was referencing his performance against the Chargers.

Thanks... SMC already pointed out that I am lacking in reading comprehension skills.

[ZachEY]

Thanks... SMC already pointed out that I am lacking in reading comprehension skills.

Saw that. Responded before I read his. I'd never rub anything in... Not my style.

[CTM]

If the Jets make the Super Bowl, Sanchez's career can bottom out worse than Christian Slater's did and I'd still love that little Mexican bastard.

I don't know if you get or lose points on the christian slater career reference, but you definitely get them for "that little mexican bastard"

[EmDiggy]

except he's not an espn writer. He's a writer for Football Outsiders.

They use stats and stats only to analyze. What they miss is JaMarcus Russell's team did not have a killer rush offense and a killer D. Sanchez is "managing the game." ala Trent Dilfer because they know they can win this way. He's a rookie. He doesn't have any weapons that can stretch the field (well he has one, but that one can't catch).

This

[stoicsentry]

Talking about this article on ESPN 1050 right now.

[stoicsentry]

Cowherd disputed the claim with these observations:

Russell played 3 years in college, Sanchez only 1

Sanchez has better work ethic, better organization

Sanchez's leap from USC opponents to the AFC East opponents larger than Russell's leap to AFC West opponents

[TheSage]

Baseball players can be statistically compared much more easily than football players because it is a sport which basically is one where individual are isolated one on one. Pitcher v. hitter, field against ball whic is certainly an oversimplification. Football, on the other hand, requires a team effort-no quarterback is going to look good if he is flat on his back because of an ineffective O line or have a high completion percentage if his ends can't catch or get open.

Sanchez was a starter after 16 college games-how many did Russell have? As previously stated Russell was a second year player having had a year to absorb the defenses, the playbook and practices with the players.

It is my observation that most of Sanchez' ints were the result of his inexperience in that they were thrown a fraction too late or because he failed to recognize the coverage and where the DBs were or because his youthful enthusiasm which caused him to try to force the play. Part of it also may be the early success giving him a false sense of security.

While i was against handing him the ball from the start, it turned out to be the right move. We are NOT looking at a Russell here.

[johnny green balls]

Baseball players can be statistically compared much more easily than football players because it is a sport which basically is one where individual are isolated one on one. Pitcher v. hitter, field against ball whic is certainly an oversimplification. Football, on the other hand, requires a team effort-no quarterback is going to look good if he is flat on his back because of an ineffective O line or have a high completion percentage if his ends can't catch or get open.

Sanchez was a starter after 16 college games-how many did Russell have? As previously stated Russell was a second year player having had a year to absorb the defenses, the playbook and practices with the players.

It is my observation that most of Sanchez' ints were the result of his inexperience in that they were thrown a fraction too late or because he failed to recognize the coverage and where the DBs were or because his youthful enthusiasm which caused him to try to force the play. Part of it also may be the early success giving him a false sense of security.

While i was against handing him the ball from the start, it turned out to be the right move. We are NOT looking at a Russell here.

+1

also, the sample sizes are much larger in baseball than in football which greatly increases the confidence level of stats.

[SoFlaJets]

I was listening to Brandon Teirney this morning and Football Outsiders also had a thesis about rookie RB's who have done what Shonn Greene has done in the playoffs-there were 3 of them and it said 2 of them blew out their knees the next year-the third was Duane Thomas....hater much? Klecko73 said it best the other day when he noted that the reason they call it Football Outsiders is because they all look like this guy

[CTM]

Baseball players can be statistically compared much more easily than football players because it is a sport which basically is one where individual are isolated one on one. Pitcher v. hitter, field against ball whic is certainly an oversimplification. Football, on the other hand, requires a team effort-no quarterback is going to look good if he is flat on his back because of an ineffective O line or have a high completion percentage if his ends can't catch or get open.

Sanchez was a starter after 16 college games-how many did Russell have? As previously stated Russell was a second year player having had a year to absorb the defenses, the playbook and practices with the players.

It is my observation that most of Sanchez' ints were the result of his inexperience in that they were thrown a fraction too late or because he failed to recognize the coverage and where the DBs were or because his youthful enthusiasm which caused him to try to force the play. Part of it also may be the early success giving him a false sense of security.

While i was against handing him the ball from the start, it turned out to be the right move. We are NOT looking at a Russell here.

Not for nothing, but you spent a lot of energy explaining why football is harder to quantify due to all the moving parts working together, then went on to conclude Sanchez isn't Russell, ignoring that either by statistics (Defensive or running game), or just plain old eyeballing it, Russell has been in a a tremendously more difficult environment to succeed.

[Klecko73isGod]

Not for nothing, but you spent a lot of energy explaining why football is harder to quantify due to all the moving parts working together, then went on to conclude Sanchez isn't Russell, ignoring that either by statistics (Defensive or running game), or just plain old eyeballing it, Russell has been in a a tremendously more difficult environment to succeed.

Russell has also made it harder on himself by not putting forth the effort. Does anybody think that will ever be an issue with Sanchez?

[slats]

I was listening to Brandon Teirney this morning and Football Outsiders also had a thesis about rookie RB's who have done what Shonn Greene has done in the playoffs-there were 3 of them and it said 2 of them blew out their knees the next year-the third was Duane Thomas....hater much? Klecko73 said it best the other day when he noted that the reason they call it Football Outsiders is because they all look like this guy

It's in this article:

Greene, meanwhile, is only the fifth rookie to post two 100-yard games in the playoffs. Coincidentally, three of the other four men to pull this off -- Jamal Lewis, Curt Warner and Ickey Woods -- tore their ACLs the next season, and combined to play only three games in their sophomore seasons. The fourth, Duane Thomas, saw a promising career ruined by contract squabbles with the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins.

[johnny green balls]

Russell has also made it harder on himself by not putting forth the effort. Does anybody think that will ever be an issue with Sanchez?

ya don't see sanchez going into camp with 40 extra pounds of fat after the offseason.

[Klecko73isGod]

ya don't see sanchez going into camp with 40 extra pounds of fat after the offseason.

Dude's gonna be way too busy ****ing this offseason to pack on 40 lbs. Now if you said he came into camp with the clap....

[CTM]

I was listening to Brandon Teirney this morning and Football Outsiders also had a thesis about rookie RB's who have done what Shonn Greene has done in the playoffs-there were 3 of them and it said 2 of them blew out their knees the next year-the third was Duane Thomas....hater much? Klecko73 said it best the other day when he noted that the reason they call it Football Outsiders is because they all look like this guy

I don't think that was a prediction as much a coincidence they made mention of.

[CTM]

Russell has also made it harder on himself by not putting forth the effort. Does anybody think that will ever be an issue with Sanchez?

How the heck do I know? the only things i've seen out of sanchez off the field has been either modeling, shooting commercials or playing xbox at that dirtbag rhodes house..

note: i'm not attacking sanchez, just defending FO

[GLH222]

FYI...these are the same folks who predicted the Packers D to take them to the Super Bowl this year...ummmm

[SMC]

note: i'm not attacking sanchez, just defending FO

How can you defend FO in this instance, however?

FO is comparing Sanchez' rookie season to Russell's SECOND year in the NFL (Russell didn't start his rookie year) and every other 1st time starter, regardless of whether it's in his rookie year or 4th year.

In other words, FO disregarded Eli Manning's rookie season where he started 8 games, but instead matched up Eli's 2nd year to Sanchez' first. The same is true with Phillip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers.

So, again, I ask you, did FO use proper methodology in this instance?

[Scott Dierking]

Baseball players can be statistically compared much more easily than football players because it is a sport which basically is one where individual are isolated one on one. Pitcher v. hitter, field against ball whic is certainly an oversimplification. Football, on the other hand, requires a team effort-no quarterback is going to look good if he is flat on his back because of an ineffective O line or have a high completion percentage if his ends can't catch or get open.

Sanchez was a starter after 16 college games-how many did Russell have? As previously stated Russell was a second year player having had a year to absorb the defenses, the playbook and practices with the players.

It is my observation that most of Sanchez' ints were the result of his inexperience in that they were thrown a fraction too late or because he failed to recognize the coverage and where the DBs were or because his youthful enthusiasm which caused him to try to force the play. Part of it also may be the early success giving him a false sense of security.

While i was against handing him the ball from the start, it turned out to be the right move. We are NOT looking at a Russell here.

People think that baseball stats should be compared more qualitatively, but if in fact that is not the case either. But that is not the argument here.

People can and do twist facts and numbers to fit any agenda they like to espouse.