Tim Grahm: Decade of Drafts: Pats Surpreme, Fins Worst

[flgreen]

Decade of drafts: Pats supreme, Fins worst

May, 10, 2011

May 10

9:31

AM ET

By Tim Graham

Last month, I took some heat for daring to say the Buffalo Bills were about average when it came to drafting under top college scout Tom Modrak.

I didn't claim the Bills were great, just a lot closer to mediocre than most of their fans might believe. Still, the sentiment struck a nerve. Bills fans, whether he was the one who made the pick or not, had been calling for Modrak's ouster for years because of several busted first- and second-round draft choices.

Those fans were thrilled last week, when the Bills dumped Modrak after 10 drafts.

But a decade-long draft analysis compiled by Cold, Hard Football Facts.com backed up my assertion.

In spite of some bombs, the Bills have been ordinary drafters overall. CHFF, with the help of Pro-Football-Reference.com metrics, broke down 10 years of drafts by counting up star players, longtime starters and promising young players.

The Bills graded out with a C. They rated ahead of 13 other clubs, including the New Orleans Saints, Minnesota Vikings and Miami Dolphins.

Bad trades, coaching decisions and the inability to re-sign free agents have been bigger contributors to Buffalo's 11-year playoff drought.

The New York Jets were only four spots above the Bills with a C-plus, although author Jonathan Comey pointed out the Jets' draft success was mitigated by their lack of selections over the past decade. The Jets often bundle their picks to move up, giving them fewer players to chart.

The Dolphins had the worst grade in the AFC East. They received a D and were lumped into the "Class Clowns" category with the Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders.

As you might expect, the New England Patriots finished atop the heap as the "Valedictorian." Comey wrote the Patriots found at least one impact player every year and noted all of their first-round picks and 11 of their 14 second-round picks still were in the league last season.

[T0mShane]

"Cold Hard Football Facts.com"

Man, Graham really goes for the big, legit sources. Somebody start a blog tracking Tom Brady's colon activity and see how long it takes Graham to quote from it. Over/Under: three days.

[Jets Voice of Reason]

All I care about is that the Jets drafting has been far superior the past 5 years or so. I'll take my 4 or 5 diamonds to your 10 faceless role players that i'm not afraid of any day of the week. lol at "impact players"

[PFSIKH]

All I care about is that the Jets drafting has been far superior the past 5 years or so. I'll take my 4 or 5 diamonds to your 10 faceless role players that i'm not afraid of any day of the week. lol at "impact players"

It is a philosophy.

Tanne has chosen to trade picks to move up or for impact players versus Beli's electing to continually stockpile and then draft a handful of players that impact like they did last year.

Love it, hate it or be frustrated by it, Belichick has shown the ability to maintain the team with few dips as the Pats have been 10+ wins the past eight years and nine of ten.

[Integrity28]

Decade of drafts: Pats supreme, Fins worst

May, 10, 2011

May 10

9:31

AM ET

By Tim Graham

Last month, I took some heat for daring to say the Buffalo Bills were about average when it came to drafting under top college scout Tom Modrak.

I didn't claim the Bills were great, just a lot closer to mediocre than most of their fans might believe. Still, the sentiment struck a nerve. Bills fans, whether he was the one who made the pick or not, had been calling for Modrak's ouster for years because of several busted first- and second-round draft choices.

Those fans were thrilled last week, when the Bills dumped Modrak after 10 drafts.

But a decade-long draft analysis compiled by Cold, Hard Football Facts.com backed up my assertion.

In spite of some bombs, the Bills have been ordinary drafters overall. CHFF, with the help of Pro-Football-Reference.com metrics, broke down 10 years of drafts by counting up star players, longtime starters and promising young players.

The Bills graded out with a C. They rated ahead of 13 other clubs, including the New Orleans Saints, Minnesota Vikings and Miami Dolphins.

Bad trades, coaching decisions and the inability to re-sign free agents have been bigger contributors to Buffalo's 11-year playoff drought.

The New York Jets were only four spots above the Bills with a C-plus, although author Jonathan Comey pointed out the Jets' draft success was mitigated by their lack of selections over the past decade. The Jets often bundle their picks to move up, giving them fewer players to chart.

The Dolphins had the worst grade in the AFC East. They received a D and were lumped into the "Class Clowns" category with the Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders.

As you might expect, the New England Patriots finished atop the heap as the "Valedictorian." Comey wrote the Patriots found at least one impact player every year and noted all of their first-round picks and 11 of their 14 second-round picks still were in the league last season.

So at the beginning of the decade, the Patriots were winning 3 SB's and dominant... the Jets were meh.

10 years later... the Patriots have not won another SB, still win regular season games, but are nowhere near as good as they were back then... and the Jets have redefined their entire franchise and are sniffing the SB and more likely to get there than the Pats in the next couple years.

I agree the Jets haven't had "a lot" of picks, but they've come further over 10 years due to their use of draft picks for players and trades. Pats lost their edge over the past 10 years of drafting.

[Klecko73isGod]

It is a philosophy.

Tanne has chosen to trade picks to move up or for impact players versus Beli's electing to continually stockpile and then draft a handful of players that impact like they did last year.

Love it, hate it or be frustrated by it, Belichick has shown the ability to maintain the team with few dips as the Pats have been 10+ wins the past eight years and nine of ten.

So funny how the standards have dropped in the seven years since the last title.

TX used to puff his chest and proclaim that anything short of winning the SuperBowl was considered failure. Now, the Chowds blow each other over 10-win seasons.

Remember what you guys used to say about the Colts?

[PFSIKH]

So at the beginning of the decade, the Patriots were winning 3 SB's and dominant... the Jets were meh.

10 years later... the Patriots have not won another SB, still win regular season games, but are nowhere near as good as they were back then... and the Jets have redefined their entire franchise and are sniffing the SB and more likely to get there than the Pats in the next couple years.

I agree the Jets haven't had "a lot" of picks, but they've come further over 10 years due to their use of draft picks for players and trades. Pats lost their edge over the past 10 years of drafting.

The Jets were winning 9-10 games a year at the beginning of the decade to 9-11 games now.

Now, that is progress.

[Integrity28]

The Jets were winning 9-10 games a year at the beginning of the decade to 9-11 games now.

Now, that is progress.

Nah, not every year... every OTHER year. Which is why I said "meh."

[JonEJet]

It is a philosophy.

Tanne has chosen to trade picks to move up or for impact players versus Beli's electing to continually stockpile and then draft a handful of players that impact like they did last year.

Love it, hate it or be frustrated by it, Belichick has shown the ability to maintain the team with few dips as the Pats have been 10+ wins the past eight years and nine of ten.

Thank Brady for that, surely not Belli's drafting

[PFSIKH]

So funny how the standards have dropped in the seven years since the last title.

TX used to puff his chest and proclaim that anything short of winning the SuperBowl was considered failure. Now, the Chowds blow each other over 10-win seasons.

Remember what you guys used to say about the Colts?

Tex is crazy.

Seriously, back when they were clearly the best, then it was the standard.

However, on a flight from Hawaii when Tedy had his stroke, the wheels started to come off. Then Brady was lost 7 minutes into the 2009 season.

They have not been great since 2005. Reality is you need to enjoy the moments with Brady as they come because sooner rather than later number 12 will walk off the field and we will never see that number again under center for the Patriots.

[tparich]

They have not been great since 2005. Reality is you need to enjoy the moments with Brady as they come because sooner rather than later number 12 will walk off the field and we will never see that number again under center for the Patriots.

Can't wait!!

[Child please]

The patriots cheated for a decade, coincidence?

Belidick as a gm is laughable, if Brady hadn't fell into his lap at the same time he had the games best spy ring rolling he'd be coaching the UConn Huskies.

[SMC]

They have not been great since 2005. Reality is you need to enjoy the moments with Brady as they come because sooner rather than later number 12 will walk off the field and we will never see that number again under center for the Patriots.

Wow, that is the most honest statement I've seen from a Chowd or media Pat-apologist in a long time.

You hear the delusion now about Belli drafting Mallet as Brady's successor. Or even the idiots talking about trading up for Luck next year with the Pats' 28 draft picks (although that is counter to Belli's philosophy). Once Brady's gone it's all over. The Pats could still win games, but they'd never be a SB contender without him.

It's remarkable how people overlook the fact that in order to win 14 games last year the Pats needed their HOF QB to essentially have a perfect season. If Brady wasn't perfect the Pats would lose by 2 TDs.

[PatriotReign37]

All I care about is that the Jets drafting has been far superior the past 5 years or so. I'll take my 4 or 5 diamonds to your 10 faceless role players that i'm not afraid of any day of the week. lol at "impact players"

The Jets 2010 draft wasnt superior.

NE's was by a mile.

[Bleedin Green]

The Jets 2010 draft wasnt superior.

NE's was by a mile.

You forgot to add the qualifier: judged solely on the performance of the respective draft classes rookie years, and absolutely nothing else.

Keep in mind, as many as 3 of the 4 Jets draft picks from 2010 could very well be starters this year and not to mention the picks from that draft used to acquire Braylon Edwards. So let's not jerk ourselves off too quickly, ok?

[Garb]

Tex is crazy.

Seriously, back when they were clearly the best, then it was the standard.

However, on a flight from Hawaii when Tedy had his stroke, the wheels started to come off. Then Brady was lost 7 minutes into the 2009 season.

They have not been great since 2005. Reality is you need to enjoy the moments with Brady as they come because sooner rather than later number 12 will walk off the field and we will never see that number again under center for the Patriots.

It's a QB driven league. A compimentary defense would be nice (sigh...) but without a solid qb, you 'aint winning a championship. That is why, every year, I have hope. Brady is still one of the best in the business. As a Pats fan, I have been blessed. I also know it won't last forever....but at the very least, my fandom was greatly rewarded. That's why I understand the absolute rabid fury of some Jets fans...you can smell it....you're getting awfully hungry..it's within reach....and you know that the window is only open for so long.

[Garb]

You forgot to add the qualifier: judged solely on the performance of the respective draft classes rookie years, and absolutely nothing else.

Keep in mind, as many as 3 of the 4 Jets draft picks from 2010 could very well be starters this year and not to mention the picks from that draft used to acquire Braylon Edwards. So let's not jerk ourselves off too quickly, ok?

Hmmm...if you are going to use that criteria, the Patriots 2007 draft doesn't suck as much as you (and me and everyone else with half a brain) think (Merriweather, I beleive, is the the only player left from that draft class) because picks were used to acquire Wes Welker and Randy Moss.

[Sperm Edwards]

It is a philosophy.

Tanne has chosen to trade picks to move up or for impact players versus Beli's electing to continually stockpile and then draft a handful of players that impact like they did last year.

Love it, hate it or be frustrated by it, Belichick has shown the ability to maintain the team with few dips as the Pats have been 10+ wins the past eight years and nine of ten.

1) Tannenbaum hasn't been drafting for the Jets for "the past decade" which is what the grades were based upon. It's only been since 2006.

2) It's a hell of a lot easier to stockpile picks - which started fairly recently for the Pats - when you're already a stacked team. Prior to that BB would trade up in the draft for talents like Chad Jackson (trading up from #52, the slot where Greg Jennings was drafted by GB). In fact they had like 10 picks in that draft and the only decent player they came away with was a kicker. So spare me the prowess of their identifying good draftees when 90% of their picks - in a stupidly deep draft no less - were garbage. The following year the only one out of 9 picks to stick past the summer was their first rounder (a safety who gets overrated by who he plays for, and who gets dragged into the EZ in playoff games, hahaha). Another draft with 10% success. The year after that? Again only 1 starter (in round 1 again) with everyone else being trash.

So let's see...

2006: 1 for 10

2007: 1 for 9

2008: 1 for 7

2009-2011: I wouldn't even criticize (or praise) too much since guys who haven't worked out may and guys who seem good so far can easily regress, but there were 24 picks from 2009-2010. A third of them never made the opening day rosters.

The point is only that it's easier to stockpile and trade down when you have a HOF QB in his prime. It covers up a lot of deficiencies at other positions - particularly on defense - when you can win a shootout against anyone. It was a good strategy to have but eventually you have to make those picks. IMO he went back to the well with that strategy too many times; this year in particular.

It's also helped when you get great trade value when dealing picks (two 5th-rounders for Ellis Hobbs who they weren't going to re-sign, getting a first-rounder for Richard Seymour who they weren't going to re-sign, only ponying up a single 4th rounder for Randy Moss, etc.)

But how smart is really it to continually trade out of round 1 when that's where 90% of their non-awful draft picks come from?

[DMaynard]

The Jets 2010 draft wasnt superior.

NE's was by a mile.

A little early to make that judgement. Connor and Vlad may both start this year. Wilson will probably be the nickle and maybe start if they don't resign Cro. McKnight should have a much bigger role than last year, oh, and we got this guy Holmes for the fifth pick, and he did not turn out too bad.

[Sperm Edwards]

A little early to make that judgement. Connor and Vlad may both start this year. Wilson will probably be the nickle and maybe start if they don't resign Cro. McKnight should have a much bigger role than last year, oh, and we got this guy Holmes for the fifth pick, and he did not turn out too bad.

Which DB had the better rookie season by far: Marcus Trufant or Nnamdi Asomwhateverhisnameis?

[PatriotReign37]

You forgot to add the qualifier: judged solely on the performance of the respective draft classes rookie years, and absolutely nothing else.

Do you think that Mcourty, Hernandez and Gronkowski are flukes?

Keep in mind, as many as 3 of the 4 Jets draft picks from 2010 could very well be starters this year and not to mention the picks from that draft used to acquire Braylon Edwards. So let's not jerk ourselves off too quickly, ok?

As of today, those picks have done almost nothing. So, the 2010 Jets draft is not superior to the Pats. Right? Could, might, should and maybe rings hollow.

Not to mention that Woodhead was cut to keep McNight.

[PatriotReign37]

A little early to make that judgement. Connor and Vlad may both start this year. Wilson will probably be the nickle and maybe start if they don't resign Cro. McKnight should have a much bigger role than last year, oh, and we got this guy Holmes for the fifth pick, and he did not turn out too bad.

Connor and Vlad may start, but they havent proven anything in the NFL yet.

If Cromartie goes, what a waste of that 2011 2nd round pick.

[DMaynard]

Connor and Vlad may start, but they havent proven anything in the NFL yet.

If Cromartie goes, what a waste of that 2011 2nd round pick.

No doubt, after one year, you win. All we are saying is only a fool closes the book on a rookie crop after one year. And if Cro stays, what a wonderful use of a second round pick. Again, too early to crown the winning horse.

[Bleedin Green]

Hmmm...if you are going to use that criteria, the Patriots 2007 draft doesn't suck as much as you (and me and everyone else with half a brain) think (Merriweather, I beleive, is the the only player left from that draft class) because picks were used to acquire Wes Welker and Randy Moss.

That's certainly an argument I've seen made by a number of Patriots fans, and I do think it has some legitimacy when evaluating a draft by looking at what all of those picks turned out to become. That said, that's more of a secondary thought, the primary being the fact that trying to make this judgment after one season is laughable.

[Bleedin Green]

Do you think that Mcourty, Hernandez and Gronkowski are flukes?

As of today, those picks have done almost nothing. So, the 2010 Jets draft is not superior to the Pats. Right? Could, might, should and maybe rings hollow.

Not to mention that Woodhead was cut to keep McNight.

The last time we saw Devin McCourty, he was getting dragged into the endzone along with Meriweather in the Jets playoff victory. Meanwhile his two TE counterparts were non-factors in the game. That game certainly wasn't indicative of their seasons by any means, but these guys aren't exactly definitively destined for HOF careers.

To be honest, both Hernandez and Gronkowski were inconsistent last year, and traded weeks where they completely disappeared. It just worked that since there was two of them, as long as one of them showed up, it made up for the no-show by the other. That's exactly why everyone always judges them as a pair, because it's not nearly as impressive when you split them apart. Not they aren't good players, but they aren't exactly proven either. Then again, this is the same fan base that talked about what a dominant TE Ben Watson was destined to become despite year after year his most impressive plays coming on Brady interceptions.

Of course most of this is still better than what the Jets got out of their draft picks last year, but to act as if that determines their future career paths is a joke. There are players who have looked dominant in their rookie year and been out of the league 2 years later and others who looked like monumental busts turn into HOFers. By opening day 75% of the Jets 2010 draft could be starters, so you'll have to excuse me if I'm not going to write them off just yet.

To give you an idea of how asinine your argument is, by the means you are judging that the Patriots draft is definitively better than the Jets, based on one years production, I can make the case that Mark Sanchez is a better QB than Tom Brady is right now. After all, Sanchez defeated Brady head to head in their last game, which was a playoff game no less, and 3 out of 5 in his career. So based on that small comparable data set, Sanchez is the better player right now, right?

[Bleedin Green]

Which DB had the better rookie season by far: Marcus Trufant or Nnamdi Asomwhateverhisnameis?

Just wait, Trufant is destined for the HOF. Asomugha is just a one-year, er... five-year wonder.

[Child please]

1) Tannenbaum hasn't been drafting for the Jets for "the past decade" which is what the grades were based upon. It's only been since 2006.

2) It's a hell of a lot easier to stockpile picks - which started fairly recently for the Pats - when you're already a stacked team. Prior to that BB would trade up in the draft for talents like Chad Jackson (trading up from #52, the slot where Greg Jennings was drafted by GB). In fact they had like 10 picks in that draft and the only decent player they came away with was a kicker. So spare me the prowess of their identifying good draftees when 90% of their picks - in a stupidly deep draft no less - were garbage. The following year the only one out of 9 picks to stick past the summer was their first rounder (a safety who gets overrated by who he plays for, and who gets dragged into the EZ in playoff games, hahaha). Another draft with 10% success. The year after that? Again only 1 starter (in round 1 again) with everyone else being trash.

So let's see...

2006: 1 for 10

2007: 1 for 9

2008: 1 for 7

2009-2011: I wouldn't even criticize (or praise) too much since guys who haven't worked out may and guys who seem good so far can easily regress, but there were 24 picks from 2009-2010. A third of them never made the opening day rosters.

The point is only that it's easier to stockpile and trade down when you have a HOF QB in his prime. It covers up a lot of deficiencies at other positions - particularly on defense - when you can win a shootout against anyone. It was a good strategy to have but eventually you have to make those picks. IMO he went back to the well with that strategy too many times; this year in particular.

It's also helped when you get great trade value when dealing picks (two 5th-rounders for Ellis Hobbs who they weren't going to re-sign, getting a first-rounder for Richard Seymour who they weren't going to re-sign, only ponying up a single 4th rounder for Randy Moss, etc.)

But how smart is really it to continually trade out of round 1 when that's where 90% of their non-awful draft picks come from?

PFSIHK, OWNED!

[PatriotReign37]

No doubt, after one year, you win. All we are saying is only a fool closes the book on a rookie crop after one year. And if Cro stays, what a wonderful use of a second round pick. Again, too early to crown the winning horse.

Its way to early to claim the Jets 2010 draft superior.

Maybe next year.

[PatriotReign37]

The last time we saw Devin McCourty, he was getting dragged into the endzone along with Meriweather in the Jets playoff victory. Meanwhile his two TE counterparts were non-factors in the game. That game certainly wasn't indicative of their seasons by any means, but these guys aren't exactly definitively destined for HOF careers.

Gronkowski wasnt a factor? Oh, OK

Rob Gronkowski led the Patriots with 65 yards on four receptions against the Jets in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5729/rob-gronkowski

16 games X 65 yards receiving is a 1000 yard season.

Hernandez was hurt late in the year. He had hip surgery post season.

To be honest, both Hernandez and Gronkowski were inconsistent last year, and traded weeks where they completely disappeared. It just worked that since there was two of them, as long as one of them showed up, it made up for the no-show by the other. That's exactly why everyone always judges them as a pair, because it's not nearly as impressive when you split them apart. Not they aren't good players, but they aren't exactly proven either. Then again, this is the same fan base that talked about what a dominant TE Ben Watson was destined to become despite year after year his most impressive plays coming on Brady interceptions.

Some defenses take away what you like to do.

Of course most of this is still better than what the Jets got out of their draft picks last year, but to act as if that determines their future career paths is a joke. There are players who have looked dominant in their rookie year and been out of the league 2 years later and others who looked like monumental busts turn into HOFers. By opening day 75% of the Jets 2010 draft could be starters, so you'll have to excuse me if I'm not going to write them off just yet.

Could be starters still have to go out and prove they belong in the league.

To give you an idea of how asinine your argument is, by the means you are judging that the Patriots draft is definitively better than the Jets, based on one years production, I can make the case that Mark Sanchez is a better QB than Tom Brady is right now. After all, Sanchez defeated Brady head to head in their last game, which was a playoff game no less, and 3 out of 5 in his career. So based on that small comparable data set, Sanchez is the better player right now, right?

I get it. If the Pats and Jets drafts were switched, youd be crowing about how bad the Pats draft was after one season.

[NJ]

Unfortunately, compiled in the Jets numbers for the last decade was the 2005 abortion which yielded us dik other than Pouha.

Vaginus Maximus is still letting anyone with a football run him over in Arizona, Nuge is still somehow alive in Cinn, and Dreessen still has a jersey in Houston because he can long snap. Epic draft failure.

[The Crusher]

Tex is crazy.

Seriously, back when they were clearly the best, then it was the standard.

However, on a flight from Hawaii when Tedy had his stroke, the wheels started to come off. Then Brady was lost 7 minutes into the 2009 season.

They have not been great since 2005. Reality is you need to enjoy the moments with Brady as they come because sooner rather than later number 12 will walk off the field and we will never see that number again under center for the Patriots.

True. but at the same time it won;t be the last time Tommy has his hands on another man's ball bag. Not by a long shot.

[Klecko73isGod]

1) Tannenbaum hasn't been drafting for the Jets for "the past decade" which is what the grades were based upon. It's only been since 2006.

2) It's a hell of a lot easier to stockpile picks - which started fairly recently for the Pats - when you're already a stacked team. Prior to that BB would trade up in the draft for talents like Chad Jackson (trading up from #52, the slot where Greg Jennings was drafted by GB). In fact they had like 10 picks in that draft and the only decent player they came away with was a kicker. So spare me the prowess of their identifying good draftees when 90% of their picks - in a stupidly deep draft no less - were garbage. The following year the only one out of 9 picks to stick past the summer was their first rounder (a safety who gets overrated by who he plays for, and who gets dragged into the EZ in playoff games, hahaha). Another draft with 10% success. The year after that? Again only 1 starter (in round 1 again) with everyone else being trash.

So let's see...

2006: 1 for 10

2007: 1 for 9

2008: 1 for 7

2009-2011: I wouldn't even criticize (or praise) too much since guys who haven't worked out may and guys who seem good so far can easily regress, but there were 24 picks from 2009-2010. A third of them never made the opening day rosters.

The point is only that it's easier to stockpile and trade down when you have a HOF QB in his prime. It covers up a lot of deficiencies at other positions - particularly on defense - when you can win a shootout against anyone. It was a good strategy to have but eventually you have to make those picks. IMO he went back to the well with that strategy too many times; this year in particular.

It's also helped when you get great trade value when dealing picks (two 5th-rounders for Ellis Hobbs who they weren't going to re-sign, getting a first-rounder for Richard Seymour who they weren't going to re-sign, only ponying up a single 4th rounder for Randy Moss, etc.)

But how smart is really it to continually trade out of round 1 when that's where 90% of their non-awful draft picks come from?

Holy crap that was vicious.

[T0mShane]

Holy crap that was vicious.

Sperm, in all its incarnations, is scary.

[Bleedin Green]

I get it. If the Pats and Jets drafts were switched, youd be crowing about how bad the Pats draft was after one season.

No, I wouldn't, because unlike you, I'm not a ******* moron. Anyone who knows sh*t about football knows that you can't tell a damn thing about a player after only one year. Although it shouldn't surprise me, as you only continue my experience of Patriots fans thinking that since their team had success 7-10 years ago that somehow makes them more knowledgeable about football, when more often than not they have no clue WTF they're talking about.

[SMC]

LOL, the Chowds are getting bitchslapped in this thread by Sperm and Bleedin'.