More fuel to the offseason fire, ESPN Radio's Jody Mcdonald "Revis is going to hold out"

[Smashmouth]

you really should try to get a life.

[RutgersJetFan]

See I just dont see our defense as that good. On a points basis, adjusted for the schedule, they were average last season. I guess they should have been better than that based on how they played on most of the field but for some reason the run defense, which was the strength of the team, would fall apart around the end zone. That was kind of a strange thing.

I don't think it's a strange thing at all. Kind of where FO shines actually because it weights the credit for the points. The offense turned the ball over 34 times last year. 34 effing times. A good amount on our own side of the field.

The team still didnt address the big issue of stopping the deep passes, which admittedly would be worse without Revis, but its the same issue. And we all know offensively the team did zero to improve unless Tebow somehow turns into a spectacular runner. I guess whatt it comes down to is I dont see Revis making that kind of difference unless we find another difference maker on defense in the draft.

Extra responsibility on the DB's from the LB's crapping the bed will do that. We were in the top 6 for literally every single conventional passing category and 2nd on FO. NY/A was only 5.9. Harris should rebound this year and Pouha won't start off at a snail's pace, and they'll have a full offseason program. The other difference maker this year is the line which will be fully stocked and healthy for the first time ever. They'll be fine.

[RutgersJetFan]

The other difference maker this year is the line which will be fully stocked and healthy for the first time ever. They'll be fine.

Just to add, after Dixon and Ropati, and mmmmaybe Ellis (he still may need another year), yes I'm including Thomas in that one on 4-down sets. Say what you will about this franchise, but the one thing I absolutely would never doubt is the medical staff. Wilkerson is going to be pretty great this year. It got lost because of how much the offense overshadowed everything the last several games, but he was a stud down the stretch. From the SD game on to be honest.

[CTM]

See I just dont see our defense as that good. On a points basis, adjusted for the schedule, they were average last season. I guess they should have been better than that based on how they played on most of the field but for some reason the run defense, which was the strength of the team, would fall apart around the end zone. That was kind of a strange thing. The team still didnt address the big issue of stopping the deep passes, which admittedly would be worse without Revis, but its the same issue. And we all know offensively the team did zero to improve unless Tebow somehow turns into a spectacular runner. I guess whatt it comes down to is I dont see Revis making that kind of difference unless we find another difference maker on defense in the draft. I liken it to those dying days of the Cowboys where they sunk a bunch of money in Deion and the team became mediocre anyway because the offensive players all began to fall apart.

Using points doesn't work when the offense was as turnover prone and putrid as it was last year. Last years Jets defense was def top 5. They simply had an offense that didn't help them at all

[The Crusher]

It's kind of hilarious how your QB sucking gives an effing CB so much leverage over a franchise. I ain't even mad at this point.

HA!! So Revis holds out and we are back to talking about Sanchez. You guys are unreal.

Sanchez just needs the best playmakers in the league, the best line in the league and nothing more than maybe the 3rd or 2nd best defense. Throw in a top tier running back and we are easily back on the hunt. Can;t understand why everyone keeps saying how bad Sanchez is.

FM

[JustInFudge]

Mevi$ $louch

[ZachEY]

This is retarded. You guys know this right? You're just playing along for conversation cause you're bored, right. Nobody's DUMB enough to believe ... never mind.

Why again is it hard to believe? Considering Revis himself said the moment he signed the contract that this year there's a good chance he'd do it again?

Who knows if it will happen. But acting like this is completely made up might be the "DUMB" angle.

[jason423]

Using points doesn't work when the offense was as turnover prone and putrid as it was last year. Last years Jets defense was def top 5. They simply had an offense that didn't help them at all

But you are making the assumption that the numbers were all just because of turnovers. They werent. its a defense that has trended downward on the overall play for 3 years now. They actually played better off bad field position last year than they did in 2010.

Here are the scoring drive stats against the Jets defense for the last 3 years, in which the opponent began in their own territory. Its bigger plays. More scoring drives. More points. Even though they had better field position to work with.

2009:

Drives- 31

PPG- 10.06

YPP- 6.52

Avg LOS- 31.48

2010:

Drives- 38

PPG- 13.63

YPP- 7.76

Avg LOS- 26.68

2011:

Drives- 43

PPG- 14.57

YPP- 8.00

Avg LOS- 24.78

For drives that began in the Jets own territory the defense got screwed this year because of field position. Still they were not as effective as they were in 2009. Im guessing the Jets are hoping to get back towards the 2009 drive number by bringing in Sparano and going ultra conservative. I dont have these numbers for the rest of the NFL, but my guess is 6 drives is pretty low but 14 and 17 have to be on the high side. I would guess the average is around 10. Assuming that they have 10 at the same numbers and the offense hits the average of 2 offensive scores allowed you are looking at 18-18.5 PPG, assuming no specials scores which are rare. That will end up around top 5 but its just not enough to make a difference with the offense unless the schedule turns out to be a cupcake (which it could be since we play the NFC West and AFC South). The only teams that the Jets defense would have major issues with are New England, Pittsburgh, and Houston.

2009:

Drives- 6

PPD- 3.67

YPP- 2.59

Avg LOS- 34.3

2010:

Drives- 14

PPD- 5.57

YPP- 6.52

Avg LOS- 34.07

2011:

Drives- 17

PPD- 4.41

YPP- 3.27

Avg LOS- 26

[Matt39]

After Brent Celek exposing himself against the Jets defense, Im going to trust Jason on this one.

[SMC]

Its hilarious that a player entering his 6th season in the NFL wouldve held out THREE times.

[CTM]

But you are making the assumption that the numbers were all just because of turnovers. They werent. its a defense that has trended downward on the overall play for 3 years now. They actually played better off bad field position last year than they did in 2010.

Here are the scoring drive stats against the Jets defense for the last 3 years, in which the opponent began in their own territory. Its bigger plays. More scoring drives. More points. Even though they had better field position to work with.

2009:

Drives- 31

PPG- 10.06

YPP- 6.52

Avg LOS- 31.48

2010:

Drives- 38

PPG- 13.63

YPP- 7.76

Avg LOS- 26.68

2011:

Drives- 43

PPG- 14.57

YPP- 8.00

Avg LOS- 24.78

For drives that began in the Jets own territory the defense got screwed this year because of field position. Still they were not as effective as they were in 2009. Im guessing the Jets are hoping to get back towards the 2009 drive number by bringing in Sparano and going ultra conservative. I dont have these numbers for the rest of the NFL, but my guess is 6 drives is pretty low but 14 and 17 have to be on the high side. I would guess the average is around 10. Assuming that they have 10 at the same numbers and the offense hits the average of 2 offensive scores allowed you are looking at 18-18.5 PPG, assuming no specials scores which are rare. That will end up around top 5 but its just not enough to make a difference with the offense unless the schedule turns out to be a cupcake (which it could be since we play the NFC West and AFC South). The only teams that the Jets defense would have major issues with are New England, Pittsburgh, and Houston.

2009:

Drives- 6

PPD- 3.67

YPP- 2.59

Avg LOS- 34.3

2010:

Drives- 14

PPD- 5.57

YPP- 6.52

Avg LOS- 34.07

2011:

Drives- 17

PPD- 4.41

YPP- 3.27

Avg LOS- 26

I concede last years defense didn't touch 2009's, which is why i said top 5 for 2011 when in 2009 we were clearly #1.. I don't have a ton of time to retort further atm, but just to clarify, are you suggesting that the Jets defense in 2011 was average, when compared to other teams in 2011? Or merely that they are significantly less effective then they were 2 years prior, which I agree with. .

[SenorGato]

HA!! So Revis holds out and we are back to talking about Sanchez. You guys are unreal.

Sanchez just needs the best playmakers in the league, the best line in the league and nothing more than maybe the 3rd or 2nd best defense. Throw in a top tier running back and we are easily back on the hunt. Can;t understand why everyone keeps saying how bad Sanchez is.

FM

+1

Guys like RJF and dbates simply fail to understand how the Jets have stacked the odds against Sanchez. The guy threw 26 TDs last year with SanBlowseo, Plaxico Suckass, and Dustin Loser for f's sake! Imagine, just imagine, what he'd do if the Jets were smart enough to get him a Calvin Johnson and Vernon Davis instead.

Am I doing this right? I don't even know anymore.

[jason423]

I concede last years defense didn't touch 2009's, which is why i said top 5 for 2011 when in 2009 we were clearly #1.. I don't have a ton of time to retort further atm, but just to clarify, are you suggesting that the Jets defense in 2011 was average, when compared to other teams in 2011? Or merely that they are significantly less effective then they were 2 years prior, which I agree with. .

Significantly less effective, trending downward, and not good enough to cover for an offense that doesnt score enough or is consistent enough to win. They also get penalized way too much (I think they were 2nd or 3rd in penalty yards per play in the league). I think when you factor in the turnovers it pretty much makes the overall numbers meaningless because they dont have the ability to do what they did in 2009 and just snuff the life out of a team when they got the ball. See I think if you are going to win on defense you have to be capable of holding a team to those 10-11 non-turnover/special teams related points. Once you are giving up, on average, 14 points a game before factoring in the other scores a team is going to get via turnovers and specials that I dont think you have the guns to just rely on defense to win. Its going to help win some games but its not the Ravens or Steelers in their better seasons over the last 12 years.

Even with a new coach on offense we are still basically the same flawed personnel barring a fluke year where Sanchez turns into Alex Smith from last season and never hands the ball over and at least moves the ball a little each drive instead of being the master of the 3 and out. I just cant imagine the need of pumping more money into the CB position unless its really the difference between deep playoff potential team and no playoff potential. That why we caved at the last minute in 2010. Rex knew we needed him because he saw Wilson every day in practice and the Jets felt they were the best team in the NFL with him. I cant see any possible way Rex looks at his team now and honestly thinks "we are the best team in the NFL and need Revis to remain there", especially with the Jets I think facing only 5 legit "A" receivers this year.

[pointman]

Revis won't hold out. But Tannenbaum evading the question does make it seems somewhat dubious...

[RutgersJetFan]

But you are making the assumption that the numbers were all just because of turnovers. They werent. its a defense that has trended downward on the overall play for 3 years now.

No it hasn't, it's fluctuated in finding its mean because the '09 defense was that outlandishly good. What's more likely, that the distribution stays leptokurtic with Revis or without?

They actually played better off bad field position last year than they did in 2010.

Oh stop it. The N's over 30% less on the TO's, they're not even comparable with a disparity from that angle. You're just extrapolating conventional #'s at this point. Weighted D was higher than '10. DVOA was higher and both the passing and rushing percentages were up too. Even the weekly variance was cut almost in half. Most importantly, Weighted takes the end of the year into account more, meaning Pouha and Scott's slow starts are accounted for in the rushing #'s.

[dbatesman]

No it hasn't, it's fluctuated in finding its mean because the '09 defense was that outlandishly good. What's more likely, that the distribution stays leptokurtic with Revis or without?

[RutgersJetFan]

My bad yo. Didn't mean to hit you with words and sh*t. Should have said that the 2012 defense will regress back to a mean that's probabilistically higher than the last two seasons...yo.

[T0mShane]

leptokurtic

The f*ck?

[Darth Vader]

lepto mother effing kertic bro. no, u didnt.

[Bleedin Green]

I'm not sure why anyone thinks that the setup of Revis' contract will have any impact on whether he not he decides to hold out, including Tanny at the time they made the deal. If he had no problem holding out with 3 years left on his deal, there's no reason to believe he's going to worry about whether his deal currently has 2 or 4 years left on it. That's not to say Revis will definitely hold out, although I think it's a possibility considering that, as has come up recently, he said from the time he signed this deal he might be looking for a new one this year. Either way, if he's proven anything it's that he's not going to let anything else impact his decision to hold out. He's either going to decide he wants more money regardless of his current contract status, be that from the Jets or possibly even more likely from another team, or decide he's happy with where he's at.

I think the thing most likely to deter Revis from holding out now is that there's a good chance that no team, be that the Jets or anyone else, is going to give him the deal he really wants after these past two seasons. Both years he's only had a half of a season tops where he's played up to that really high level, and nobody is going to pay him for that level until he shows again that he can keep up at it.

[dbatesman]

My bad yo. Didn't mean to hit you with words and sh*t. Should have said that the 2012 defense will regress back to a mean that's probabilistically higher than the last two seasons...yo.

Eric Smith is secretly good at football. PUT THAT IN YOUR TI-89 AND SMOKE IT, COLLEGE BOY.

[RutgersJetFan]

I think the thing most likely to deter Revis from holding out now is that there's a good chance that no team, be that the Jets or anyone else, is going to give him the deal he really wants after these past two seasons.

Know what's most likely to deter Revis from this sh*t? By finally coming to the realization that ground and pound is stupid. But nooOOOOOOooooo, the problem wasn't the game plan, or the quarterback, it's just that we lost Brad Smith. Finally replacing him should fix everything. Then we can actually just say, "Darrelle, we're not trading you and we're not releasing you. Show up if you want to. Don't show up if you want to. We're going to be fine."

[RutgersJetFan]

Eric Smith is secretly good at football. PUT THAT IN YOUR TI-89 AND SMOKE IT, COLLEGE BOY.

TI-89? Do I look like an 11th grader? I got Stata licenses for days son!

[T0mShane]

When is Phil putting in the tab for "Glossary"?

[The Crusher]

+1

Guys like RJF and dbates simply fail to understand how the Jets have stacked the odds against Sanchez. The guy threw 26 TDs last year with SanBlowseo, Plaxico Suckass, and Dustin Loser for f's sake! Imagine, just imagine, what he'd do if the Jets were smart enough to get him a Calvin Johnson and Vernon Davis instead.

Am I doing this right? I don't even know anymore.

I feel like you get me.

[RutgersJetFan]

I feel like you get me.

I see your game fat man. And I may not like it, but god damn do I respect it.

[The Crusher]

I see your game fat man. And I may not like it, but god damn do I respect it.

:It doesn't take a political scientist to extrapolate the fact that we are only a AFC Probowl roster away from making Sanchez a AFC championship game runner up again. The Jets fron office disgust me.

[pointman]

:It doesn't take a political scientist to extrapolate the fact that we are only a AFC Probowl roster away from making Sanchez a AFC championship game runner up again. The Jets fron office disgust me.

Someone mentioned that its the organizations fault... for not getting Sanchez Calvin Johnson. Sometimes, I really wish people were trolling instead of being mouth breathers.

[jason423]

No it hasn't, it's fluctuated in finding its mean because the '09 defense was that outlandishly good. What's more likely, that the distribution stays leptokurtic with Revis or without?

Oh stop it. The N's over 30% less on the TO's, they're not even comparable with a disparity from that angle. You're just extrapolating conventional #'s at this point. Weighted D was higher than '10. DVOA was higher and both the passing and rushing percentages were up too. Even the weekly variance was cut almost in half. Most importantly, Weighted takes the end of the year into account more, meaning Pouha and Scott's slow starts are accounted for in the rushing #'s.

Obviously it stays better with Revis, but my point is how good can it get. Using the DVOA from 2008 onward the Jets have an average of -10.1 with a std. deviation of about 10.7%. If we just use the Rex years its -14.4 with the deviation around 8%. To expect them to get anywhere near that 2009 year again is not realistic. That was the best defense in the league in the last 3 years and 3rd best in the last 4 based on DVOA. Even their average performance is better than almost every teams best season in the last 3 years (Pittsburgh is the only team with a better DVOA for a single season than the Jets average DVOA over that period). The is far less correlation in terms of performance on defense than their is on offense to year over year performance(due to defense being more scheme based whereas the guy holding the ball every play has a huge effect on the offense).

And Im not sure what you are getting at with the other stats. Its not like the Jets faced significantly worse situational football because of Sanchez in 2011. Their scoring numbers didnt magically balloon last year because the offense regressed. They had plenty of junk in 2010 because of the special teams. The end result is the same. The Jets faced 201 drives last year, 195 in 2010, and 183 in 2009. 17 drives in 2011 began in Jets territory that resulted in scores. 14 occurred in 2010 and 6 in 2009. Just take those out and say the defense had no chance there because of field position. The adjusted points per drive is 1.26, 1.20, and 0.91 in the 3 years. Thats not Marks fault. Thats not Greene's fault. Thats almost all on the defense. The average field position on those scoring drives was better for the Jets in 2011 than in 2010 and 2009. 23.3% resulting in scores in 2011. 17.5% in 2009. The defense gave up 68 yards per scoring drive last year, 2 yards more than 2010, and about 6 more than 2009.

If your argument is that the Jets defense will look better with an offense that holds the ball longer and doesnt allow as many possessions sure Id agree but how is that going to occur? The QBs are Sanchez and the one guy more inaccurate than him in the NFL, Tim Tebow. The line is still the same group as the last two yers. The WR corps has progressively gotten worse. For the defense to carry this team the Jets D has to be close to 2009 good and I just cant see any way that occurs. For the Jets D to be right around their average and get the team deep into the playoffs they need the Chadwick type performance from the QB and with the way those two guys put the ball on the ground and Sanchez seems to throw to the wrong team I just cant see it happening.

[jason423]

Know what's most likely to deter Revis from this sh*t? By finally coming to the realization that ground and pound is stupid. But nooOOOOOOooooo, the problem wasn't the game plan, or the quarterback, it's just that we lost Brad Smith. Finally replacing him should fix everything. Then we can actually just say, "Darrelle, we're not trading you and we're not releasing you. Show up if you want to. Don't show up if you want to. We're going to be fine."

Thats the problem in a nutshell. The Jets are a decade or more behind the rest of the NFL when it comes to offense. To hire a guy who runs a 50/50 run/pass split in this day and age is insane. We are like the Cleveland Browns. The Jets needed to let Sanchez go out last year and take his lumps slinging the ball around the field and seeing if there was anything there instead of the dink and dunk schemes they decided to use in desperation to make the playoffs. You can put Revis and Ware on the same defense and it still isnt going to amount to anything because of that offense. If Im the Jets Im watching what happens with Matt Schaub very closely this year. They are also in bad cap shape and may be ready to move on from him after this season if they dont win. I get the injury history but if he becomes available next year he can change the team around enough to actually utilize the strengths on the defense. I just cant see Mark doing that this year. Probably not even next season, even if we hope for best case. Everyone points to Eli but Eli didnt explode in year 4. He had a super good playoff run. His year 4 was about the same as year 3. Thats about all you can see for Sanchez. Baby steps, which has wasted a pretty good defense the last 3 years.

[The Crusher]

Someone mentioned that its the organizations fault... for not getting Sanchez Calvin Johnson. Sometimes, I really wish people were trolling instead of being mouth breathers.

If Sanchez had Tony Starks Ironman suit he would be top 10 in the league. FACT

[RutgersJetFan]

Obviously it stays better with Revis, but my point is how good can it get. Using the DVOA from 2008 onward the Jets have an average of -10.1 with a std. deviation of about 10.7%. If we just use the Rex years its -14.4 with the deviation around 8%. To expect them to get anywhere near that 2009 year again is not realistic. That was the best defense in the league in the last 3 years and 3rd best in the last 4 based on DVOA. Even their average performance is better than almost every teams best season in the last 3 years (Pittsburgh is the only team with a better DVOA for a single season than the Jets average DVOA over that period). The is far less correlation in terms of performance on defense than their is on offense to year over year performance(due to defense being more scheme based whereas the guy holding the ball every play has a huge effect on the offense).

Less. Not far less. It hits .7 about a week earlier on average and as the season progresses the difference is minuscule. We're talking in the hundredths at that point. On this particular team, there's also a practical aspect. When the defense craps the bed, we lose. Not once last season did the offense make up for any of the off-weeks by the D. Meaning with how highly offense actually does correlate to wins, it's a borderline miracle that we even wound up with 8.

And Im not sure what you are getting at with the other stats. Its not like the Jets faced significantly worse situational football because of Sanchez in 2011.

He had more interceptions. He had more fumbles. More turnovers equals more opportunities for an opposing offense to score. The average starting field position has absolutely nothing to do with anything comparatively when you're dealing with disparities this large because of so many obvious reasons.

Their scoring numbers didnt magically balloon last year because the offense regressed. They had plenty of junk in 2010 because of the special teams. The end result is the same. The Jets faced 201 drives last year, 195 in 2010, and 183 in 2009. 17 drives in 2011 began in Jets territory that resulted in scores. 14 occurred in 2010 and 6 in 2009. Just take those out and say the defense had no chance there because of field position. The adjusted points per drive is 1.26, 1.20, and 0.91 in the 3 years. Thats not Marks fault. Thats not Greene's fault. Thats almost all on the defense. The average field position on those scoring drives was better for the Jets in 2011 than in 2010 and 2009. 23.3% resulting in scores in 2011. 17.5% in 2009. The defense gave up 68 yards per scoring drive last year, 2 yards more than 2010, and about 6 more than 2009.

Again. You're standardizing 21 and 34. Assuming the former stays constant is so far beyond acceptable in samples that small.

If your argument is that the Jets defense will look better with an offense that holds the ball longer and doesnt allow as many possessions sure Id agree but how is that going to occur? The QBs are Sanchez and the one guy more inaccurate than him in the NFL, Tim Tebow. The line is still the same group as the last two yers. The WR corps has progressively gotten worse. For the defense to carry this team the Jets D has to be close to 2009 good and I just cant see any way that occurs. For the Jets D to be right around their average and get the team deep into the playoffs they need the Chadwick type performance from the QB and with the way those two guys put the ball on the ground and Sanchez seems to throw to the wrong team I just cant see it happening.

My argument is that the rush D isn't sporadic this season, a full offseason helps, a deeper/better line helps, and the offense doesn't turn the ball over 34 times. All probably shoot the numbers past 2011 and 2010, and a little under 2009. Which is still beast. These really aren't outlandish predictions. They are, however, outlandish if the pass defense sh*ts the bed.

[RutgersJetFan]

Thats the problem in a nutshell. The Jets are a decade or more behind the rest of the NFL when it comes to offense. To hire a guy who runs a 50/50 run/pass split in this day and age is insane. We are like the Cleveland Browns. The Jets needed to let Sanchez go out last year and take his lumps slinging the ball around the field and seeing if there was anything there instead of the dink and dunk schemes they decided to use in desperation to make the playoffs. You can put Revis and Ware on the same defense and it still isnt going to amount to anything because of that offense. If Im the Jets Im watching what happens with Matt Schaub very closely this year. They are also in bad cap shape and may be ready to move on from him after this season if they dont win. I get the injury history but if he becomes available next year he can change the team around enough to actually utilize the strengths on the defense. I just cant see Mark doing that this year. Probably not even next season, even if we hope for best case. Everyone points to Eli but Eli didnt explode in year 4. He had a super good playoff run. His year 4 was about the same as year 3. Thats about all you can see for Sanchez. Baby steps, which has wasted a pretty good defense the last 3 years.

Simply put, I think the problem is that the GM just doesn't know how to find a quarterback. He does, however, have a coach who knows how to run a defense. Neither are going anywhere any time soon. I've lost all hope in philosophies changing in the future, so we might as well stick with what gives us a chance. And sacrificing the most valuable chip on the only chance you have at anything makes sense financially, but competitively and promotionally it's suicide.

[SenorGato]

Eric Smith is secretly good at football. PUT THAT IN YOUR TI-89 AND SMOKE IT, COLLEGE BOY.

T-89? Lol what's up 2004.

[dbatesman]

TI-89? Do I look like an 11th grader? I got Stata licenses for days son!

T-89? Lol what's up 2004.

/history major