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Peyton Manning was a rookie once too....


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This is what I keep hearing about Geno and his struggles.  Everyone wants to talk about the number of INT's Peyton threw as a rookie.  I have a few issues with that.

 

1) While he did throw a lot of INT's as a rookie, Peyton also  mixed it up with the occassional TD pass.

 

2)  The thing I remember most about Peyton as a rookie was that he was a different QB after the 8 game mark.  He got significantly better in the second half of the season and the swing in his INT/TD ratio was pretty impressive.  So, I took a mintue to look it up.

 

First 8 games:

 

Peyton

TD/INT/Comp

11  16    55%

 

Geno

TD/INT/Comp

8    13    59%

 

 

Final 8 games:

 

Peyton

TD/INT/Comp

15  12    58%

 

Geno (so far)

TD/INT/Comp

0     3     38%

 

 

Geno is only up to game #10, so he still has time to turn it around, but basically Petyon went from 5 more INT's than TD's in the first half, to 3 more TD's than INT's in the second half.  A 9 TD/INT swing. 

 

Let's see if Geno gets significantly better in the second half to show that he's developing.

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This is what I keep hearing about Geno and his struggles.  Everyone wants to talk about the number of INT's Peyton threw as a rookie.  I have a few issues with that.

 

1) While he did throw a lot of INT's as a rookie, Peyton also  mixed it up with the occassional TD pass.

 

2)  The thing I remember most about Peyton as a rookie was that he was a different QB after the 8 game mark.  He got significantly better in the second half of the season and the swing in his INT/TD ratio was pretty impressive.  So, I took a mintue to look it up.

 

First 8 games:

 

Peyton

TD/INT/Comp

11  16    55%

 

Geno

TD/INT/Comp

8    13    59%

 

 

Final 8 games:

 

Peyton

TD/INT/Comp

15  12    58%

 

Geno (so far)

TD/INT/Comp

0     3     38%

 

 

Geno is only up to game #10, so he still has time to turn it around, but basically Petyon went from 5 more INT's than TD's in the first half, to 3 more TD's than INT's in the second half.  A 9 TD/INT swing. 

 

Let's see if Geno gets significantly better in the second half to show that he's developing.

I compared Geno toEli's first year, and completion and yardage-wise, Geno is tracking better at this point. An uptick now would be something to be hopeful about.

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I compared Geno toEli's first year, and completion and yardage-wise, Geno is tracking better at this point. An uptick now would be something to be hopeful about.

All fine and good. Where are the comparables for Dave Brown,Browning Nagle, Coy Detmer, Art Schlister, Ryan Leaf, Todd Marinovich, Marty Domres et al various top picks who pretty muuch sucked. .Get back to us when you do. Otherwise you are grasping very invalid at straws as popints of comparison, And one more-MARK SANCHEZ. Been there done that.
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Seems like we have seen this story before. :)

 

I watched Cam play last night and it looks like he is starting to get it now as he begins to wind down his fourth year in the league. If Cam had been playing here there would have been people looking to run him out of town and the end of year 2 when didn't progress from a great rookie year. If they weren't ready to pull the plug on him then they sure as hell would have been screaming bloody murder after last year.

 

Every QB and team are different. Some mature fast, some take a couple of years. The franchise though NEEDS to know when to pull the plug. 

 

Now I do think at some point though if Geno goes on like this then he needs to sit. If Milliner can get benched and Stephen Hill can be benched for poor play then why not Geno ? It doesn't mean he can't be the future. He just might need to take a step back and watch some.

 

You can't hold 52 players accountable for their actions on the field and the one guy who is not is playing the most important position on the field.

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Seems like we have seen this story before. :)

 

I watched Cam play last night and it looks like he is starting to get it now as he begins to wind down his fourth year in the league. If Cam had been playing here there would have been people looking to run him out of town and the end of year 2 when didn't progress from a great rookie year. If they weren't ready to pull the plug on him then they sure as hell would have been screaming bloody murder after last year.

 

Every QB and team are different. Some mature fast, some take a couple of years. The franchise though NEEDS to know when to pull the plug. 

 

Now I do think at some point though if Geno goes on like this then he needs to sit. If Milliner can get benched and Stephen Hill can be benched for poor play then why not Geno ? It doesn't mean he can't be the future. He just might need to take a step back and watch some.

 

You can't hold 52 players accountable for their actions on the field and the one guy who is not is playing the most important position on the field.

I get your premise, but completely disagree on Cam.  If the Jets had a rookie QB who came in and completed over 60% of his passes and accounted for 35 TD's and turned it over only 17 times, he'd build some equity and give the fans a reason to be patient. 

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There really is no longer a comparison between Peyton and Geno. Geno would need to play out of this world to catch up to Manning's rookie year at this point. Geno needs 19 touchdown passes in the last 6 games to tie Peyton. lol Also, Peyton never had the 5 game stretch that Geno just had. When Peyton came into the league there were certain knocks on him that he was improving on throughout his rookie year. Geno has not done that, if anything his weaknesses seem to be getting worse. Infact the most accurate combarison is probably to Browning Nagle. Browning had a big game against Atlanta early in the season and it prolonged his benching. That seems to be the most accurate comparison at this point.

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Hoping for Geno to turn it around is great and all...but were in the middle of a playoff race and a potential divisional race.You don't tell the other 52 guys in the locker room that we're hoping the guy who single handily cost us the Bills game will turn it around.

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All fine and good. Where are the comparables for Dave Brown,Browning Nagle, Coy Detmer, Art Schlister, Ryan Leaf, Todd Marinovich, Marty Domres et al various top picks who pretty muuch sucked. .Get back to us when you do. Otherwise you are grasping very invalid at straws as popints of comparison, And one more-MARK SANCHEZ. Been there done that.

 

Hey, I was accused of being a Debbie Downer on Saturday, so this week I'm channelling my inner Stuart Smalley - I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and doggone it, people like me!

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All fine and good. Where are the comparables for Dave Brown,Browning Nagle, Coy Detmer, Art Schlister, Ryan Leaf, Todd Marinovich, Marty Domres et al various top picks who pretty muuch sucked. .Get back to us when you do. Otherwise you are grasping very invalid at straws as popints of comparison, And one more-MARK SANCHEZ. Been there done that.

 

yep

 

All these same comparisons were posted as recently as Aug 2012 between Eli and Sanchez.  Neither Mark Sanchez, or Geno Smith is going to be Peyton.    

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people used to compare Sanchez to Peyton too 

 

If Mark Sanchez' (or Geno Smith's) dad was a Pro Bowl QB we could make this comparison more easily. 

 

Note I am not saying that all children of NFL stars are going to be awesome. But it's something to hang your hat on at least. 

 

which brings us to Matt SImms... 

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This is what I keep hearing about Geno and his struggles.  Everyone wants to talk about the number of INT's Peyton threw as a rookie.  I have a few issues with that.

 

1) While he did throw a lot of INT's as a rookie, Peyton also  mixed it up with the occassional TD pass.

 

2)  The thing I remember most about Peyton as a rookie was that he was a different QB after the 8 game mark.  He got significantly better in the second half of the season and the swing in his INT/TD ratio was pretty impressive.  So, I took a mintue to look it up.

 

First 8 games:

 

Peyton

TD/INT/Comp

11  16    55%

 

Geno

TD/INT/Comp

8    13    59%

 

 

Final 8 games:

 

Peyton

TD/INT/Comp

15  12    58%

 

Geno (so far)

TD/INT/Comp

0     3     38%

 

 

Geno is only up to game #10, so he still has time to turn it around, but basically Petyon went from 5 more INT's than TD's in the first half, to 3 more TD's than INT's in the second half.  A 9 TD/INT swing. 

 

Let's see if Geno gets significantly better in the second half to show that he's developing.

The issue I have about the Geno defenders is that they REFUSE to see that these are not simple rookie mistakes. If he were to cut down his interceptions and lost fumbles (Which by the way were already a knock on him in college) he would still be terrible. Geno is not, nor should he ever be a quarterback.

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All fine and good. Where are the comparables for Dave Brown,Browning Nagle, Coy Detmer, Art Schlister, Ryan Leaf, Todd Marinovich, Marty Domres et al various top picks who pretty muuch sucked. .Get back to us when you do. Otherwise you are grasping very invalid at straws as popints of comparison, And one more-MARK SANCHEZ. Been there done that.

 

Yeah, I was in favor of giving him more than a month's look since we drafted him so high.  But I'm not seeing it.  To be fair to him, I didn't watch him in college, but I don't care much about that anyway as there's no shortage of great college players who were horrid pros.  

 

But the great ones started to show more than Geno's shown.  Manning was awful to start, but he was much better as his rookie season went on.  Geno is not.  Eli also was better after a handful of games.  His final 3 games of 2004 (career starts #6-9 for him) were night & day better than the 3 prior games.  His big brother - while still not being a good QB yet - was still far better after that first month than he was during it.  If he started out with 3 TDs and 11 INTs, he finished with 23 TDs and 17 INTs after that.  Still not good, but hey he was a rookie and turning the ball over is what rookies do.  But he still improved to a positive ratio plus consider that he was winging it 40x per game mostly.

 

I threw out Manning's stats early in the season to show that stats alone don't tell whether a QB is going to be good.  But even with that, they have to turn the corner and Geno in game 10 just had his worst game.  You have to see other things, beyond the stats, and in the games - since I can't see practices - I'm not seeing enough good to outweigh the bad.

 

Over his past handful of starts he's actually on par with how Sanchez finished our 2012 season, if you can believe that, and that is bad.  Yeah, he's a rookie and Sanchez wasn't, blah blah blah, but I've seen as much as I wanted to see.  

 

If the team wants to look for another week or two then whatever.  They're the ones who invested the draft pick in him and they're the ones who have to decide what to do with their high pick(s) next season, so I guess a full evaluation of the guy you took so early (and worked with so much for so many months) is in order.  It's far easier for us as fans to move on.  

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At some point you just have to make a decision where the player is hurting all the other players chances to win-you have to justify yourself to the whole team. 

I completely agree...Throwing away a season for the possible benefit of one, is the sign of a coach that needs to be run out of town.

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people used to compare Sanchez to Peyton too 

 

If Mark Sanchez' (or Geno Smith's) dad was a Pro Bowl QB we could make this comparison more easily. 

 

Note I am not saying that all children of NFL stars are going to be awesome. But it's something to hang your hat on at least. 

 

which brings us to Matt SImms... 

It's a fair point. Simms has a dad who did it, and no doubt he's shared a lot of that with Matt. Along with a brother who pretty much effed it up.And that's coming off a college career between bad luck and stupidity Simms himself has hopefully done some serious growing up.  Doesn't mean he's a lock to be great, but a factor to consider.

 

And I will say this again-we need to give Simms a shot and find out if he's a player. He could do no worse. Because the worst case scenario is he leaves here for the Jints or Pats in 2014 and becomes a decent backup or even more.Have no doubt that both of those front offices who have relationships with his dad are watching this closely.

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Yeah, I was in favor of giving him more than a month's look since we drafted him so high.  But I'm not seeing it.  To be fair to him, I didn't watch him in college, but I don't care much about that anyway as there's no shortage of great college players who were horrid pros.  

 

But the great ones started to show more than Geno's shown.  Manning was awful to start, but he was much better as his rookie season went on.  Geno is not.  Eli also was better after a handful of games.  His final 3 games of 2004 (career starts #6-9 for him) were night & day better than the 3 prior games.  His big brother - while still not being a good QB yet - was still far better after that first month than he was during it.  If he started out with 3 TDs and 11 INTs, he finished with 23 TDs and 17 INTs after that.  Still not good, but hey he was a rookie and turning the ball over is what rookies do.  But he still improved to a positive ratio plus consider that he was winging it 40x per game mostly.

 

I threw out Manning's stats early in the season to show that stats alone don't tell whether a QB is going to be good.  But even with that, they have to turn the corner and Geno in game 10 just had his worst game.  You have to see other things, beyond the stats, and in the games - since I can't see practices - I'm not seeing enough good to outweigh the bad.

 

Over his past handful of starts he's actually on par with how Sanchez finished our 2012 season, if you can believe that, and that is bad.  Yeah, he's a rookie and Sanchez wasn't, blah blah blah, but I've seen as much as I wanted to see.  

 

If the team wants to look for another week or two then whatever.  They're the ones who invested the draft pick in him and they're the ones who have to decide what to do with their high pick(s) next season, so I guess a full evaluation of the guy you took so early (and worked with so much for so many months) is in order.  It's far easier for us as fans to move on.  

 

Agree

 

The trend, and the way he looks on the field, is the most disturbing part .

 

In Smith's first 5 games he had 7 TD's and 8 Picks.  Not great, but  promising.  In his last 5 he has had 1 TD and 8 Picks.  Not a good trend.

 

It appears that DC's have figured him out, and he looks very bad, and uncomfortable out there.    Not saying he is going to be a total bust, but I really think for his sake, as well as the teams, it's time for him to take a seat.

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Agree

 

The trend, and the way he looks on the field, is the most disturbing part .

 

In Smith's first 5 games he had 7 TD's and 8 Picks.  Not great, but  promising.  In his last 5 he has had 1 TD and 8 Picks.  Not a good trend.

 

It appears that DC's have figured him out, and he looks very bad, and uncomfortable out there.    Not saying he is going to be a total bust, but I really think for his sake, as well as the teams, it's time for him to take a seat.

 

Pretty much, yes.

 

A high pick rookie, who's starting before he's really ready, with approximately a 1:1 TD:INT ratio with this sorry receiving corps? You keep him in there.

 

He gets far worse from there? You bench him. 50 other guys are out there practicing, studying film, risking injury, etc. And technically we're right in the hunt for a playoff spot and are in control of our own destiny.

 

When we're eliminated (or pretty much eliminated and the mathematical part is a mere formality) we can go back to playing like you're preparing for the 2014 draft and want to see what we've got so far.

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Players are just like us really- they see someone messing up they get pissed off- onluy a  matter of time where they question why is this guy playing messing our chance to win. The next guy may not be better but I have to say give him a shot now. 

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I wish someone could explain what the hurt would be to sit him down for a couple games?   If Simms plays like crap against Balt. and Miami then you put Gino back in and let him finish the season.  Then you know that you have to draft a QB early next year. 

 

  I just dont want to wait till the last game when we are out of it and the rest of the team is mailing it in to see if Simms can play.

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