What the FA Pass Rushers will cost, per OTC

[eboozer]

http://overthecap.com/looking-free-agent-pass-rushers/

With the season complete I wanted to look at one of the more intriguing positions in free agency this year which is the Defensive End/Outside Linebacker pass rush positions. This is one of the deeper positions in some time with some big name young and veteran players preparing to hit the market. While contract values are often based on comparable player and seasons within the current market, I usually like to take a little different approach to seeing where a player stands in relation to the others at the position. All raw statistics used are from our friends at Pro Football Focus.

One of the key things I would want to focus on when paying a free agent DE/OLB is what I call Pass Rusher Performance (PRP). This metric converts sacks and pressures into an amount of negative plays added by the pass rush by using a completion as a success and anything else a negative. We calculate this by determining how many passes should be completed in a “clean pocket” (64.85%) and comparing it to how many should be completed under pressure (46.2%) and sacked (0%).  Comparing the numbers we can determine what percentage of pass failures were attributed, in theory, to the pass rush.

As an example, Robert Quinn rushed the passer 477 times according to PFF.  Had he generated no pressures the QB would be expected to complete 309.3 passes. However Quinn registered 19 sacks and 72 pressures. So we can say on plays when Quinn rushed the QB, the QB completed 250.3 of his 386 non-pressured/sacked snaps, 33.3 of his pressured snaps, and none when he was sacked. So the total completions for the QB are 283.6 rather than 309.3. So instead of failing 167.7 times the QB failed 193.4 times, meaning Quinn’s pass rush led to a PRP of 15.4%, best in the NFL among players with 50% participation.

While the pass rush plays the biggest factor in paying these players teams do also take into account the ability to play the run (and in the case of the OLB’s to also cover a bit as well), but for this we’ll just look at the pass rush since that is what everyone gets pulled into with a few notes on run defense here and there.

The Elite Free Agents

Brian Orakpo- In his two healthy seasons Orakpo has posted PRP’s of  11.6% and 11.4% which shows remarkable consistency and is going to place him in the top 10 every season if he can keep that production level up. He hasn’t had the off the charts great season like Robert Quinn has had the last two years, but he should be right at the top of the list. He also makes some impact plays against the run. While Orakpo will likely not reach the top of the OLB market (Clay Matthews at $13.2 million) he should certainly push for the Tamba Hali range at $11.5 million a year.

Greg Hardy- Like Orakpo, Hardy has been very consistent the last two seasons with a 11.0% and 11.5% grade which will put him right in the upper echelon of the position. The one concern a team may have with Hardy is that he plays alongside Charles Johnson who also grades highly as a pass rusher.  Hardy will create more negative plays in the run game than Orakpo. Hardy will be just 26 next season so the interest in him will be higher than Orakpo, but both should be very productive players. Defensive ends have been higher earners at the top of the position than the OLB pass rushers with six players earning over $12 million a season. Hardy should push to at least equal Charles Johnson’s $12.67 million a year contract. It is hard to imagine him earning less than Chris Long at $12.05 million.

Top Market Talent

Michael Bennett- Bennett actually graded higher than Orakpo and Hardy this year with a 12.2% PRP, but the prior year Bennett  was at 8.7% and the year before 8.1%, so I don’t believe teams will view him at 29 as an elite rusher. He did enough to certainly get a long term contract but unless he is on a dominant defense his numbers will likely creep back down in 2014. Bennett is also much more of a pass rush specialist and will require a run caddy that also brings his value down somewhat from that top tier. I’d guesstimate he will end up in that $8 million a year range like Cameron Wake and Carlos Dunlap

Anthony Spencer- The injury plagued 2013 might make his status lower though he essentially posted the same numbers in 2011 and 2012 as Bennett did in 2012 and 2013. Spencer can play run and will drop off into coverage as well. He’s making that turn into his 30’s so the contract window may be shorter for Spencer than others. I would picture him to also be around $7 million a year unless he opts for a one year deal to prove his health, though at 30 that is probably very risky.

Jason Worilds- Worilds kind of came out of nowhere to post a 9.6% grade this year after not qualifying the prior two years due to lack of playing time. Much has been expected of him so this one year should be enough for him to be considered a top market player. Still this has to be a big “buyer beware” sign attached for any team considering him. I think you always have to worry about a player who has done little for years and then makes a big impact come contract time. Since pass rushers are usually premium cost I doubt he will have to settle for incentives in a contract He’ll be looking to eclipse the $40.5 million contract Paul Kruger signed last season with the Browns.

Best of the Rest

Mike Neal- He’s been extremely steady the last two years  with grades of 8.4% and 8.2% which is just under the average for the position. I don’t think any team will see high upside but there is no reason for him to not earn more than Erik Walden’s $4 million a year deal.

Robert Ayers- Ayers really peaked this year with a 9.4% grade in a season where the Broncos could just pin their ears back and run at the QB. The prior two years he was below average so I’d be concerned if he could do that again on another team. Ayers won’t really see the field in run situations either. Someone will probably believe strongly in his former draft status but I’m not sure he would be worth the risk at a $5 million price tag.

Michael Johnson- In the last three years, Johnson has produced one above average pass rushing season which came in 2012. His other two seasons were at 6% and 7% respectively. He played under the franchise tag this season so he’s going to get more interest than some of the others on this list, bt again I’d be worried about the investment. He’s not as good as his teammate Carlos Dunlap (around $7.9 million) and he really should max out at $7 million similar to Red Bryant of the Seahawks. Id feel more comfortable getting him closer to $6 milliom.

Lamarr Houston- Houston is consistent at no lower than 6.4% and no higher than 7.9% in his last three years. He can also be very impactful against the run, one of the best players at the position in that regard. This is a case where you have to decide what terrific run play is worth versus a below average, but very consistent, pass rush player. My guess is he ends up being a good value player.

The Veteran Market

Jared Allen- Allen used to be a great pass rusher, but it has been a steady decline for him going from 11.7% to 8.5% to 7.9% in his last three seasons. At 32 that is probably not going to change, but he still is a 3 down player with name value. He has played his last few years on a monster contract but I have to think that teams will be coming at him with offers closer to the $4.4 million or so Dwight Freeney took in San Diego.

Justin Tuck- Tuck came out of nowhere to post a grade of 10% this year, but considering so much of his production came against the Washington Redskins I don’t know how any teams could be confident in signing him to a higher level contract. He’s actually not much older than Spencer, but Tuck has been playing since he was 22 and has a ton of wear on his body. He should be in the $4 million to $4.5 million range of offers. Anything more than that is just asking for trouble down the line.

Calvin Pace-  After back to back years at 6.3%, Pace posted a 10.8% grade. It was pretty much unexplainable for a 33 year old and would be even more unexplainable if it happened at 34. Pace drew no interest on the open market last year and came back to the Jets on a qualifying contract. That may be his same fate this year, though I could see the Jets, who are flush with cap space, giving him between $1.5 and $2 million a year to promote rewards for play.

Shaun Phillips- Phillips signed a one year contract with the Broncos last season with a base value of $1 million and high end value of $3 million depending on performance tied to sacks. Phillips continued to produce around average levels for the position so I would picture another similar deal if he was to return to Denver or sign elsewhere next season.

[Larz]

worth it

 

its all about passer rating differential, and the pass rusher has a huge impact on the defensive rating

[eboozer]

worth it

 

its all about passer rating differential, and the pass rusher has a huge impact on the defensive rating

Worth it for whom? I can't see us going over the top for Orakpo (unfortunately), but I could see a guy like Spencer on a 3 yr. deal $15 -$18 mil.

[jgb]

Worth it for whom? I can't see us going over the top for Orakpo (unfortunately), but I could see a guy like Spencer on a 3 yr. deal $15 -$18 mil.

I never see a response on this board that advocates paying premium money for anyone. It is easy to say "i like player x so long as we get him for cheap".

[slats]

I never see a response on this board that advocates paying premium money for anyone. It is easy to say "i like player x so long as we get him for cheap".

It may be easy, but that doesn't mean it doesn't make sense. This team isn't one player away. Four $3M/year guys probably help the Jets a lot more this year than one $12M/year guy.

[eboozer]

I never see a response on this board that advocates paying premium money for anyone. It is easy to say "i like player x so long as we get him for cheap".

Been there, done that. All it got us was Bart Scott( though I loved the guy) a terrible contract with Santonio, paying Revis $12 + million and Harris. We were in cap hell. No more... save our money for Mo, Sheldon and whoever else we draft. FA is to supplement the team. Draft is where we find our stars.

[NJ]

It may be easy, but that doesn't mean it doesn't make sense. This team isn't one player away. Four $3M/year guys probably help the Jets a lot more this year than one $12M/year guy.

This ... and how many defensive picks do we have to make before one or more of them can "get after" the opposing QB?

[neckdemon]

It may be easy, but that doesn't mean it doesn't make sense. This team isn't one player away. Four $3M/year guys probably help the Jets a lot more this year than one $12M/year guy.

 

 

we have the space and you have to pay up for the more premium talents. no reason why we can't go after a premium free agent if one is available and we like him. no reason why we can't sign one of the receivers we want and one of the premium available pass rushers. its not like this team is cash strapped and needs to fill 8 positions with only 10 million

[ylekram]

we have the space and you have to pay up for the more premium talents. no reason why we can't go after a premium free agent if one is available and we like him. no reason why we can't sign one of the receivers we want and one of the premium available pass rushers. its not like this team is cash strapped and needs to fill 8 positions with only 10 million

THIS the jets are well equipped to obtain a premium free agent or 2 and still have plenty enough to sign mid tier,lower tier free agents, and their draft picks. spread the wealth around to fill team needs. the jets defense could be elite with an olb, safty, and corner

[ylekram]

This ... and how many defensive picks do we have to make before one or more of them can "get after" the opposing QB?

problem is that the jets don't draft pass rushers. they draft interior dlineman. they are all pocket pushers, not pass rushers. granted, they do a helluva job pushing that pocket, but they are not pass rushers. a guy like orakpo is an excellent specimen of an all around olb. expensive? yes. worth the money? could be

[Sperm Edwards]

Jared Allen for 3 years at $4-5M per doesn't seem at all horrible.  If a draftee steps up he's not a lineup untouchable at those numbers.  He's always been on the line, though, and it's probably where he belongs.  If we go 4 across a lot more, then our OLBers aren't necessarily going to be pass rushers as it would make sense to do a lot of Wilkerson-Snacks-Richardson-Coples.  Our OLBers would then be for pass rushing really just on blitzes for the most part.  

 

So who we go after - particularly if they're high-priced like Orakpo - would depend on what Rex has in mind for our defense.  Davis could play as 1 of 3 or 1 of 4.  Harris would have to go (though there's no rush to dump him in March) since he can't cover nearly enough ground to be a lone MLB.  Pace would be a pure backup/insurance policy, and $1.5M-2M is an appropriate amount for one who produces and knows what he's doing.  Rex doesn't seem to be a slave to a particular front-7 formation, decided-upon in the spring.  But he did show some stubbornness in repeatedly putting struggling corners on an island, only to watch them get burned again and again, so he's not exactly Plastic Man in his flexibility.

 

All I'm saying, which always takes me too many words, is it depends on what Rex wants to do.  We're not getting great production from Coples at LB, though it was his first year out there and he was recovering from a broken leg early-on (in addition to missing games outright because of it).

[SenorGato]

I never see a response on this board that advocates paying premium money for anyone. It is easy to say "i like player x so long as we get him for cheap".

 

Welcome to the new age of internet sports fan. It's universal and pretty annoying. You'd swear the new fan goal was to make sure the owner walks away as rich as possible. 

 

It does suck that Greg Hardy probably won't be a Jet even though he should be. 

[Sperm Edwards]

Welcome to the new age of internet sports fan. It's universal and pretty annoying. You'd swear the new fan goal was to make sure the owner walks away as rich as possible. 

 

It does suck that Greg Hardy probably won't be a Jet even though he should be. 

 

I think it's more that the fastest way to remove the team's flexibility is to sign 2-3 more gargantuan contracts to replace the ones we're finally rid of.  Woody Johnson can lose all his money at the craps tables for all I care; it's not like he earned a nickel of it.  I want to see the team with more than a handful of bloated mega-contracts and 45 scrubs/draftees.  It also makes the team very dependent upon a small # of players and the team's overall success hinges on the health of each of those 3-5 individuals.

[SenorGato]

I think it's more that the fastest way to remove the team's flexibility is to sign 2-3 more gargantuan contracts to replace the ones we're finally rid of.  Woody Johnson can lose all his money at the craps tables for all I care; it's not like he earned a nickel of it.  I want to see the team with more than a handful of bloated mega-contracts and 45 scrubs/draftees.  It also makes the team very dependent upon a small # of players and the team's overall success hinges on the health of each of those 3-5 individuals.

 

My guess is that is not really an issue and not the only possible route buying a star or two in FA can go down. 

[New York Mick]

I'm guessing Pace will stay and they'll land one of the upper names on the list plus draft some in the first 3 rounds.

[GREENBEAN]

I don't like Orakpo because he was very mean to the Caveman in the Gieco commercials. It was uncalled for and I don't want a player like that on the NY Jets.

[slats]

we have the space and you have to pay up for the more premium talents. no reason why we can't go after a premium free agent if one is available and we like him. no reason why we can't sign one of the receivers we want and one of the premium available pass rushers. its not like this team is cash strapped and needs to fill 8 positions with only 10 million

The Jets have needs all over the board. Pass rusher, WR, QB, CB, S, G, TE, etc. Lots of needs to fill. The Jets are only this year getting out from under the terrible contracts Tanny handed out. I'm really hoping this Idzik guy conducts business more intelligently than just going after the highest priced free agents every year.

A big time pass rusher may be nice, but at what cost? Not the money, but players you can sign with that money. Sign a premium pass rusher and WR, and you've eaten up about $20M of your newfound cap space. A QB is probably another $4M. What about the struggling secondary? The decaying OL?

Sure, you hope to fill some of those needs thru the draft, but for me, the idea of free agency should be to fill as many needs as possible to free up the BAP strategy in the draft. I'd like to have a WR, QB, CB, all signed in free agency. Also, we talk about as many as 12 draft picks for the Jets this year, but as many as half of them will be in the last two rounds. Can't really expect to fill immediate needs that way.

[Greenseed4]

I've been pretty vocal about wanting Splash. However, I will say this:

 

I don't know if it's the new concussion protocol, or the shortened off-season conditioning, but it seems like today's NFL is enduring a LOT more injuries than in year's past. For that reason, I can see the utility in spreading the wealth with guys on the fringe of the upper-tier at all of our positions of need, as opposed to just signing 2-3 big name types and a bunch of filler. 

 

There would be nothing sh*ttier, than signing a couple of big names only to have them lost to injury.

[SenorGato]

I've been pretty vocal about wanting Splash. However, I will say this:

I don't know if it's the new concussion protocol, or the shortened off-season conditioning, but it seems like today's NFL is enduring a LOT more injuries than in year's past. For that reason, I can see the utility in spreading the wealth with guys on the fringe of the upper-tier at all of our positions of need, as opposed to just signing 2-3 big name types and a bunch of filler.

There would be nothing sh*ttier, than signing a couple of big names only to have them lost to injury.

I agree with this but I think there's an overassociation of injuries to luck...at least that's how I percieve it. The Jets were very good at keeping their guys healthy for a while there (except Pennington bc boo) and there are ways to mitigate worries about injury. Plus this is the NFL so the rod is always unlubed and waiting for any player who dares slip.

I would prefer they spread the money around but exceptions can be made for a Greg Hardy or Jairus Byrd. I'm less enthused about Orakpo because hes a little older than both and expected to get ~12.

[Greenseed4]

I agree with this but I think there's an overassociation of injuries to luck...at least that's how I percieve it. The Jets were very good at keeping their guys healthy for a while there (except Pennington bc boo) and there are ways to mitigate worries about injury. Plus this is the NFL so the rod is always unlubed and waiting for any player who dares slip.

I would prefer they spread the money around but exceptions can be made for a Greg Hardy or Jairus Byrd. I'm less enthused about Orakpo because hes a little older than both and expected to get ~12.

 

On some level I kinda want them to make a big purchase this off-season.  It would instill a sense of confidence in the locker room, and put the league on notice that we're serious about contending.  

 

Every player on our defense would play a little harder if we had Jimmy Graham on the roster.  

[Larz]

Worth it for whom? I can't see us going over the top for Orakpo (unfortunately), but I could see a guy like Spencer on a 3 yr. deal $15 -$18 mil.

 

a defense.  I'd rather see them pay a big contract to a pass rusher than an ILB or S.   pass rushers improve the entire secondary

[eboozer]

a defense.  I'd rather see them pay a big contract to a pass rusher than an ILB or S.   pass rushers improve the entire secondary

thought you were talking about a particular player on that list. I would love to see Orakpo in here, but I don't see Idzik going that high $. DE Spencer, coming off micro fracture surgery could be an less expensive signing and will be ready for TC. 11 sacks in 2012, he can get after the QB. ran a 4.66 at the combine and can set the edge. I'll take him and the $5 mil savings, thank you very much.

[LAD_Brooklyn]

Jason Worilds, DE/OLB, Steelers. Age: 26.
The Steelers didn't think much of Jason Worilds, so they opted to spend a first-round pick on Jarvis Jones. Instead of Jones playing well, Worilds stepped up with a solid 2013 campaign.

 

He made 8 sacks this season in only 11 starts. Was bench the first few games as they gave the job to Jones from the start. But this is a guy who filled in for Harrison when hurt and got a lot of reps last season and is ready to start. Another key thing is he still fairly young as he'll only be 26 at the start of the season. Sort  of reminds me of Victor Butler. I think this is a guy worth it finacially as we can probably get him in a muti-year contract at around $2.5-$4 mil if I was to just project.

[eboozer]

Jason Worilds, DE/OLB, Steelers. Age: 26.

The Steelers didn't think much of Jason Worilds, so they opted to spend a first-round pick on Jarvis Jones. Instead of Jones playing well, Worilds stepped up with a solid 2013 campaign.

 

He made 8 sacks this season in only 11 starts. Was bench the first few games as they gave the job to Jones from the start. But this is a guy who filled in for Harrison when hurt and got a lot of reps last season and is ready to start. Another key thing is he still fairly young as he'll only be 26 at the start of the season. Sort  of reminds me of Victor Butler. I think this is a guy worth it finacially as we can probably get him in a muti-year contract at around $2.5-$4 mil if I was to just project.

Another solid option

[SenorGato]

No seriously - Greg Hardy would be nice. OTOH I feel like I'm underrating Orakpo, who already plays DE/LB. 

[T0mShane]

I think the primary issue for the Jets this offseason is to neither underrate not overrate Brian Orakpo. I think we should all focus our energies on properly rating him.

[Integrity28]

Been there, done that. All it got us was Bart Scott( though I loved the guy) a terrible contract with Santonio, paying Revis $12 + million and Harris. We were in cap hell. No more... save our money for Mo, Sheldon and whoever else we draft. FA is to supplement the team. Draft is where we find our stars.

That was big money thrown at the wrong guys. If Orakpo played here we'd love him and not even think about his salary.

That said, I agree with slats that the team needs too much right now. Especially on offense!

[Larz]

any player at any position can be given a "bad" contract

 

I'm saying the position of pass rusher is worthy of allocating lots of cap space

[SenorGato]

I think the primary issue for the Jets this offseason is to neither underrate not overrate Brian Orakpo. I think we should all focus our energies on properly rating him.

Wwhat IIIIS his proper rating? In Bevells if possible.

[slats]

Jason Worilds, DE/OLB, Steelers. Age: 26. The Steelers didn't think much of Jason Worilds, so they opted to spend a first-round pick on Jarvis Jones. Instead of Jones playing well, Worilds stepped up with a solid 2013 campaign.

He made 8 sacks this season in only 11 starts. Was bench the first few games as they gave the job to Jones from the start. But this is a guy who filled in for Harrison when hurt and got a lot of reps last season and is ready to start. Another key thing is he still fairly young as he'll only be 26 at the start of the season. Sort of reminds me of Victor Butler. I think this is a guy worth it finacially as we can probably get him in a muti-year contract at around $2.5-$4 mil if I was to just project.

James Farrior retaliation!

If that's an accurate guess on the salary, I'd be thrilled. We're currently slated to have Barnes and Pace play significant snaps at OLB. The Jets need to get younger there.

[dbatesman]

I think the primary issue for the Jets this offseason is to neither underrate not overrate Brian Orakpo. I think we should all focus our energies on properly rating him.

 

I think we overrate how much we underrate Orakpo. 

[LAD_Brooklyn]

James Farrior retaliation!

If that's an accurate guess on the salary, I'd be thrilled. We're currently slated to have Barnes and Pace play significant snaps at OLB. The Jets need to get younger there.

At most I can see him getting just under to what Conner Barwin received in 6 years - 36 mil, which is essentially 3 years - $13 mil with 3 option year at the end that are bloated that you get out of if you can accept some dead money. At the end of the day I think it's worth the risk whether it's this high and definitely if it's lower which I would assume as Barwin seem to have more experience under his belt.

[SenorGato]

I think we overrate how much we underrate Orakpo. 

Is this the lovely couple's way of saying Orakpo < Hardy? 

 

Yes, I went for gay. 

[dbatesman]

James Farrior retaliation!

If that's an accurate guess on the salary, I'd be thrilled. We're currently slated to have Barnes and Pace play significant snaps at OLB. The Jets need to get younger there.

 

+1

[dbatesman]

Is this the lovely couple's way of saying Orakpo < Hardy? 

 

Not sure. I'll have to check my power rankings. But are my power rankings overrated? Maybe I'm overrating how overrated they are.