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PFF notes from Jets vs Vikings


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A few notes on individual performances for Jets/Vikes

 

Offense:

 

It only took thirteen weeks, but Geno Smith had his first above average rating according to PFF posting an overall grade of 3.0.  Congrats Geno, maybe he is the future after all.

 

D' Brickashaw Ferguson was the only offensive lineman to earn a negative grade (-3.4) and the highest graded O-lineman was Breno Giacomini (2.6)

 

Jeff Cumberland turned in his eighth below-average score of the season (-3.3)

 

Chris Ivory's -3.9 was his worst grade of the season...he didn't seem to play all that bad from what I heard on radio (on the road for most of the game).

 

Defense:

 

Jason Babin played 59 snaps and earned the highest grade on defense.  Had a 3.5 overall, and again graded out higher vs the run (2.0) than he did as a pass rusher (1.3)

 

Sheldon Richardson's 2.5 pass rush score was tops on the team, and his overall 1.5 was third best on the team (Leger Douzable 2nd w/ overall 1.6 on 24 snaps)

 

Calvin Pryor earned his first negative grade in run support at -1.3.  Quinton Coples, Marcus Williams and Demario Davis all earned negative overall ratings with Pryor.

 

Williams and Pryor were the only rookies to get on the field.

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So let me get this straight. Sheldon almost leads the team in tackles, he has 3 sacks, 5 additional QB hits (pass rush grade 2.5?), 3 tackles for a loss in the running game (it looks like he got a negative grade in run defense by those PFF idiots) and on top of that he had a safety. And he barely gets a positive overall grade? He gets a worse grade than Douzable who had 2 tackles and did nothing outside of that, no tackles for a loss, no QB pressure, no nothing. And Ivory played well, he just had a big turnover in the redzone that killed his performance. No offense, but don't you feel stupid that you actually pay for this kind of "service"? Don't you think these idiots are laughing at you, probably drinking all weekend before they randomly just throw numbers around for each player and then claim they study film?

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So let me get this straight. Sheldon almost leads the team in tackles, he has 3 sacks, 5 additional QB hits (pass rush grade 2.5?), 3 tackles for a loss in the running game (it looks like he got a negative grade in run defense by those PFF idiots) and on top of that he had a safety. And he barely gets a positive overall grade? He gets a worse grade than Douzable who had 2 tackles and did nothing outside of that, no tackles for a loss, no QB pressure, no nothing. And Ivory played well, he just had a big turnover in the redzone that killed his performance. No offense, but don't you feel stupid that you actually pay for this kind of "service"? Don't you think these idiots are laughing at you, probably drinking all weekend before they randomly just throw numbers around for each player and then claim they study film?

 

Do I feel stupid?  I would feel stupid if I claimed these numbers were gospel but I don't.  I've said several times that I'm skeptical of some of the data they produce, but they do something that nobody else does, and I can't find a major sports reporting outlet that doesn't use their numbers in their stories.  There are some factors that can skew numbers such as having a D-lineman or a slow LBer in pass coverage where he's very likely to get beat.  David Harris has had some solid games this season but getting beat while covering a much faster receiver has hurt him so that's on the CS more than it's on the player IMO.  So if a guy makes some great plays but then gets a penalty and gets beat in pass coverage, that impacts the overall rating. These ratings are more about efficiency than dominance.  How often, or what percentage of the time a player did his job.  So while Sheldon was clearly the better player, he wasn't as efficient because of his mistakes.

 

For PFF, a stop constitutes "an offensive failure" as in sack, TFL, gain of fewer than three yards.

 

Douzable played 24 snaps and 3 solo tackles, and 2 stops, zero penalties, zero missed tackles, zero plays in which he was in pass coverage.

 

Sheldon played 52 snaps 2 solo tackles, 5 stops, 2 missed tackles, one penalty, dropped in to pass coverage twice.

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It is like sabermetrics for football. Trying to apply metrics to players in sport where there are some many variables is impossible and nearly a futile effort.

 

All you can do is provide guidance of some sort. 

 

That's pretty much how I've always viewed it.  As I've said before, the fact that Kyle Wilson is rated higher than 40+ other CB's makes me question their methods.  However, I don't know of another outlet that breaks down every snap for every player to give you an idea as to who is doing well and who isn't.

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Sheldon Richardson's game yesterday is why I don't take these "football sabermetrics" seriously.

The man had:

 

7 Tackles

3 Sacks

3 Tackles For Loss

4 QB Hits

1 Safety

 

And on the last play of the game he had the fire to run 50+ yards down the field to try to tackle

Wright in a meaningless game!!!  Give me tape and my eyes to judge a player, stick these "numbers"

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Douzable played 24 snaps and 3 solo tackles, and 2 stops, zero penalties, zero missed tackles, zero plays in which he was in pass coverage.

 

Sheldon played 52 snaps 2 solo tackles, 5 stops, 2 missed tackles, one penalty, dropped in to pass coverage twice.

 

Makes sense. If every game goes that way for an entire season that means Douzable basically finishes the season with...what...30-40 tackles, 0 tackles for a loss, 0 sacks, 0 QB hits and yet he will be graded higher than Sheldon who put up close to 100 tackles, 50 sacks, 70 tackles for a loss and 80 QB hits along with 16 safeties? Do you not see how stupid that is? And you pay for that? Good god. Oh, right, Sheldon missed a tackle (whatever the hell that means, we're talking DL players, not safeties or linebackers here) and he dropped in pass coverage. That evens it out. Of course.

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It is like sabermetrics for football. Trying to apply metrics to players in sport where there are some many variables is impossible and nearly a futile effort.

All you can do is provide guidance of some sort.

Not entirely true. Teams grade their players weekly. Even colleges do it. They watch the tape and grade each player by play.

Except they have someone who knows football doing it, while PFF probably has a college intern doing it. The college rating systems that I have seen make a lot more sense because they keep it simple.

positive plays - negative plays, impact plays by player by position for the entire game.

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Sheldon Richardson's game yesterday is why I don't take these "football sabermetrics" seriously.

The man had:

 

7 Tackles

3 Sacks

3 Tackles For Loss

4 QB Hits

1 Safety

 

And on the last play of the game he had the fire to run 50+ yards down the field to try to tackle

Wright in a meaningless game!!!  Give me tape and my eyes to judge a player, stick these "numbers"

 

They are interesting but certainly dont tell all. Sheldon had by far, not even close, his best game ever yesterday. 

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Not entirely true. Teams grade their players weekly. Even colleges do it. They watch the tape and grade each player by play.

Except they have someone who knows football doing it, while PFF probably has a college intern doing it. The college rating systems that I have seen make a lot more sense because they keep it simple.

positive plays - negative plays, impact plays by player by position for the entire game.

When it is a team that is doing it, you have a criteria that you are working off of that is similar for everyone-The team system. Players of the same position are often responsible for similar players of that position. The numbers begin to correspond based on a dynamic of expectations.

 

A 3rd party can not judge expected team dynamics. They are only going by "what they think". 

 

That creates different modeling. Tough to compare when you mix models.

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Makes sense. If every game goes that way for an entire season that means Douzable basically finishes the season with...what...30-40 tackles, 0 tackles for a loss, 0 sacks, 0 QB hits and yet he will be graded higher than Sheldon who put up close to 100 tackles, 50 sacks, 70 tackles for a loss and 80 QB hits along with 16 safeties? Do you not see how stupid that is? And you pay for that? Good god. Oh, right, Sheldon missed a tackle (whatever the hell that means, we're talking DL players, not safeties or linebackers here) and he dropped in pass coverage. That evens it out. Of course.

 

I'm open to suggestions.  What resource do you use to break down every player on every play?  Don't worry about me paying either, I'll find a way to survive w/o the twenty or thirty bucks it cost me.  Regardless of what you think of PFF, there are a lot of people who use their numbers and fans who have an interest in viewing them.  I pay for it so I can share the more interesting stuff with the site. Enjoy.

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They are interesting but certainly dont tell all. Sheldon had by far, not even close, his best game ever yesterday. 

 

 

Not entirely true. Teams grade their players weekly. Even colleges do it. They watch the tape and grade each player by play.

Except they have someone who knows football doing it, while PFF probably has a college intern doing it. The college rating systems that I have seen make a lot more sense because they keep it simple.

positive plays - negative plays, impact plays by player by position for the entire game.

 

Not sure if/how they can validate it, but they do say on their site that they have several pro scouting departments that contact them about their ratings and when they compare w/ what front offices have on players, they're right in line with each other. 

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Congrats Geno, maybe he is the future after all.

Literally the worst possible thing I could read after this season.

I sure hope this was sarcasm.

The worst thing we can do coming out of 2014 is to hold ANY belief that Rex or Geno Smith can be salvaged.

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Literally the worst possible thing I could read after this season.

I sure hope this was sarcasm.

The worst thing we can do coming out of 2014 is to hold ANY belief that Rex or Geno Smith can be salvaged.

 

1 Billion percent sarcasm....and that's on the low end.

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A few notes on individual performances for Jets/Vikes

 

Offense:

 

It only took thirteen weeks, but Geno Smith had his first above average rating according to PFF posting an overall grade of 3.0.  Congrats Geno, maybe he is the future after all.

 

D' Brickashaw Ferguson was the only offensive lineman to earn a negative grade (-3.4) and the highest graded O-lineman was Breno Giacomini (2.6)

 

Jeff Cumberland turned in his eighth below-average score of the season (-3.3)

 

Chris Ivory's -3.9 was his worst grade of the season...he didn't seem to play all that bad from what I heard on radio (on the road for most of the game).

 

Defense:

 

Jason Babin played 59 snaps and earned the highest grade on defense.  Had a 3.5 overall, and again graded out higher vs the run (2.0) than he did as a pass rusher (1.3)

 

Sheldon Richardson's 2.5 pass rush score was tops on the team, and his overall 1.5 was third best on the team (Leger Douzable 2nd w/ overall 1.6 on 24 snaps)

 

Calvin Pryor earned his first negative grade in run support at -1.3.  Quinton Coples, Marcus Williams and Demario Davis all earned negative overall ratings with Pryor.

 

Williams and Pryor were the only rookies to get on the field.

12 draft picks. 

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I'm open to suggestions.  What resource do you use to break down every player on every play?  Don't worry about me paying either, I'll find a way to survive w/o the twenty or thirty bucks it cost me.  Regardless of what you think of PFF, there are a lot of people who use their numbers and fans who have an interest in viewing them.  I pay for it so I can share the more interesting stuff with the site. Enjoy.

 

A) PFF doesn't know anything about football.

B ) It's impossible for anybody from the outside to grade players considering they don't even know what each player is supposed to do on each snap, what their assignments are, who they're supposed to cover and so on. Therefore these "grades" are about as accurate as me rolling the dice and throwing any number I want out there. By luck I might even have more accurate numbers.

 

There are definitely SOME stats they provide that are interesting and based on facts. Amount of snaps for each player, formations, the number of targets for a receiver, that's about it. The rest when it comes to grading players is absolutely based on nothing, it's pure speculation, everything is based on their opinion. Which would be somewhat credible if they actually knew what they're talking about. They never played football, they never coached football. It's a bunch of fantasy football geeks, fans, so take it for what it's worth. There's a bunch of websites out there that do the same thing and they have completely different rankings and grades. Outside of obvious studs like Watt and company, even a monkey would see that.

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A) PFF doesn't know anything about football.

B ) It's impossible for anybody from the outside to grade players considering they don't even know what each player is supposed to do on each snap, what their assignments are, who they're supposed to cover and so on. Therefore these "grades" are about as accurate as me rolling the dice and throwing any number I want out there. By luck I might even have more accurate numbers.

 

There are definitely SOME stats they provide that are interesting and based on facts. Amount of snaps for each player, formations, the number of targets for a receiver, that's about it. The rest when it comes to grading players is absolutely based on nothing, it's pure speculation, everything is based on their opinion. Which would be somewhat credible if they actually knew what they're talking about. They never played football, they never coached football. It's a bunch of fantasy football geeks, fans, so take it for what it's worth. There's a bunch of websites out there that do the same thing and they have completely different rankings and grades. Outside of obvious studs like Watt and company, even a monkey would see that.

 

I find some of their other stats to be pretty useful...one of my favorites being a breakdown of a QB's performance when given time to throw vs. when under pressure.  Really shows that not every QB can succeed in the NFL if he has time to throw which is something I believed after so many years of watching mediocre QB's tear up the Jets.  Again, to each his own, but it's not as if there are a million resources to get this data from.  I was pretty dismissive of their numbers for quite a while until I started seeing their stats used by major sports reporting outlets.  I don't view it as gospel by any stretch, but good info to pull for the sake of discussion.

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