QB drafted 1st overall is not the savior it's made out to be

[Pac]

History doesn't show that. Maybe a good number of them don't win Super Bowls, or don't live up to their draft position, but most of them are good QBs. The Tim Couches and JaMarcus Russells are the outliers, not the norm. You've got some greats, and then you have the Bledsoes and Palmers - all better than the Jets have had in a long time. And in most cases, the best QB is the first QB off the board. 

 

I'm not whining about the pick, but your argument doesn't work. 

 

 

I feel like arguing so I may have overstated it a bit but it's probably more than you think.  These are all QB's taken #1 overall since SB 1.

 

 

Terry Bradshaw

Jim Plunkett

Steve Bartkowski

John Elway

Vinny Testaverde

Troy Aikman

Jeff George

Drew Bledsoe

Peyton Manning

Tim Couch

Michael Vick

David Carr

Carson Palmer

Eli Manning

Alex Smith

Jamarcus Russell

Matthew Stafford

Sam Bradford

Cam Newton?

Andrew Luck

 

(note 3 of the last 6 have been busts with Alex Smith dangerously close.  You could make an argument that recent history shows you're as likely to bust as not)

 

6 of the 20 can be considered busts, 1 was dangerously close to busting and is now just decent (Alex Smith), a couple are decent but have never lived up to expectations, a few are good - not great, and 4 can be considered all-timers with Andrew Luck well on his way.

 

I don't watch college football but from everything I've read and heard from people here Mariota is just an ok prospect that isn't ready to start right away.  I'm just trying to show that it's probably more like Mariota is just ok or worse as it is him being the savior of the franchise. 

[jgb]

I feel like arguing so I may have overstated it a bit but it's probably more than you think.  These are all QB's taken #1 overall since SB 1.

 

 

Terry Bradshaw

Jim Plunkett

Steve Bartkowski

John Elway

Vinny Testaverde

Troy Aikman

Jeff George

Drew Bledsoe

Peyton Manning

Tim Couch

Michael Vick

David Carr

Carson Palmer

Eli Manning

Alex Smith

Jamarcus Russell

Matthew Stafford

Sam Bradford

Cam Newton?

Andrew Luck

 

(note 3 of the last 6 have been busts with Alex Smith dangerously close.  You could make an argument that recent history shows you're as likely to bust as not)

 

6 of the 20 can be considered busts, 1 was dangerously close to busting and is now just decent (Alex Smith), a couple are decent but have never lived up to expectations, a few are good - not great, and 4 can be considered all-timers with Andrew Luck well on his way.

 

I don't watch college football but from everything I've read and heard from people here Mariota is just an ok prospect that isn't ready to start right away.  I'm just trying to show that it's probably more like Mariota is just ok or worse as it is him being the savior of the franchise. 

 

no one is saying that #1 overall pick is a slam dunk.

 

what we are saying is that picking a QB in the later rounds is a lottery ticket. Picking a QB #1 is like flipping a coin. Neither is guaranteed, but give me the coin toss not the powerball ticket, please.

[Pac]

no one is saying that #1 overall pick is a slam dunk.

 

what we are saying is that picking a QB in the later rounds is a lottery ticket. Picking a QB #1 is like flipping a coin. Neither is guaranteed, but give me the coin toss not the powerball ticket, please.

 

Of course I'd rather they have their choice of QB's but I don't think it's a coin flip either. 

 

The last QB taken #1 overall to win a SB with the team who took them was drafted 16 years ago.

[slats]

I feel like arguing so I may have overstated it a bit but it's probably more than you think.  These are all QB's taken #1 overall since SB 1.

 

 

Terry Bradshaw

Jim Plunkett

Steve Bartkowski

John Elway

Vinny Testaverde

Troy Aikman

Jeff George

Drew Bledsoe

Peyton Manning

Tim Couch

Michael Vick

David Carr

Carson Palmer

Eli Manning

Alex Smith

Jamarcus Russell

Matthew Stafford

Sam Bradford

Cam Newton?

Andrew Luck

 

(note 3 of the last 6 have been busts with Alex Smith dangerously close.  You could make an argument that recent history shows you're as likely to bust as not)

 

6 of the 20 can be considered busts, 1 was dangerously close to busting and is now just decent (Alex Smith), a couple are decent but have never lived up to expectations, a few are good - not great, and 4 can be considered all-timers with Andrew Luck well on his way.

 

I don't watch college football but from everything I've read and heard from people here Mariota is just an ok prospect that isn't ready to start right away.  I'm just trying to show that it's probably more like Mariota is just ok or worse as it is him being the savior of the franchise. 

 

Cam Newton, with an 85 career passer rating, 14000 yards passing and 80 TDs, along with 2500 rushing yards is a bust? Sign me up for that kind of bust everyday and twice on Sunday. 

 

I'm not a Sam Bradford fan, but I wouldn't call him a bust, either. He's serviceable. 

 

David Carr couldn't've stepped into a worse situation as the first pick of an expansion franchise, but I'll grant you the bust there. 

 

So on your list, four out of 20 busted outright. What are the odds of QB's busting in any other slot? 

 

Also, while you're looking at drafthistory.com, check out the second QB taken after one goes #1 overall. Even in the lean years for the #1 guy, most of the time he's better than the next one off the board. Often by a lot. You can say Aaron Rogers or Drew Brees, but I'd counter with RGIII, Ryan Leaf, Todd Blackledge, Wayne Peace, Kelly Stouffer, Joey Harrington, Tim Tebow...  maybe you get the point, I don't know. 

[bergenjets]

Has anyone brought up the fact the Jets were never picking #1 overall or....????? 

 

No, that doesn't fit the narrative.

[Beerfish]

I really don't care about taking a QB 1st overall.  What I do care about is winning meaninless games to screw your draft position and not even having the chance to not only draft a QB high but also perhaps get the best Wr in the draft or other impact players.

[Klecko73isGod]

29% of Super Bowls were won by QBs drafted #1 overall. That's better than 1 in 4. 

 

I like those odds. 

[#27TheDominator]

 LOL at Jeff George being a bust.  12 year career, league leader in passing yards in 1997, 27K passing yards, 154 TDs/113INTs.  Yup, true bust, belongs right there with Jamarcus and Ryan Leaf.  The Jets would kill for Jeff George.  Literally.

[FidelioJet]

29% is a HUGE number....I would take those odds in a minute.

[jgb]

Of course I'd rather they have their choice of QB's but I don't think it's a coin flip either. 

 

The last QB taken #1 overall to win a SB with the team who took them was drafted 16 years ago.

 

 

you are measuring the wrong thing--SB wins. which obviously have a lot to do with the QB but not everything. marino never won one.

 

a better measure would probably be avg QBR or games started by draft position. there you will see the real value of picking a QB early. sure everyone remembers Tom Brady but no one remembers the 300 QBs taken in the 6th that did squat.

[Pac]

29% of Super Bowls were won by QBs drafted #1 overall. That's better than 1 in 4. 

 

I like those odds. 

 

I do too.

 

All I was trying to show was that 71% of the time you can win a SB with a QB taken later in the draft.  The amount of whining that has gone on the last couple weeks has been annoying so I figured I'd look up the stats.

[Pac]

 LOL at Jeff George being a bust.  12 year career, league leader in passing yards in 1997, 27K passing yards, 154 TDs/113INTs.  Yup, true bust, belongs right there with Jamarcus and Ryan Leaf.  The Jets would kill for Jeff George.  Literally.

 

Jeff George would have imploded in NY inside of 3 years.  He never won anything and was always considered a QB that never lived up to his potential.

 

I'm using the word "bust" liberally but for the purpose of this discussion I think it fits.

[JustInFudge]

No, that doesn't fit the narrative.

 

Its like we're having the argument for the sake of Bucs and Raiders.  

[Pac]

you are measuring the wrong thing--SB wins. which obviously have a lot to do with the QB but not everything. marino never won one.

 

a better measure would probably be avg QBR or games started by draft position. there you will see the real value of picking a QB early. sure everyone remembers Tom Brady but no one remembers the 300 QBs taken in the 6th that did squat.

 

I've been told numerous times here that winning the SB is the only thing that matters.  Rex' back to back AFCECG appearances mean nothing nor does Mark Sanchez having the 6th highest playoff QB rating of all time.

[#27TheDominator]

Jeff George would have imploded in NY inside of 3 years.  He never won anything and was always considered a QB that never lived up to his potential.

 

I'm using the word "bust" liberally but for the purpose of this discussion I think it fits.

 

He didn't live up to his potential, because his potential was GOAT.

[jgb]

I've been told numerous times here that winning the SB is the only thing that matters.  Rex' back to back AFCECG appearances mean nothing nor does Mark Sanchez having the 6th highest playoff QB rating of all time.

 

ok well then go respond to the people who said that somewhere else. you're discussing this with me now.

[Savage69]

Has anyone brought up the fact the Jets were never picking #1 overall or....????? 

Funny thing is if Mariotta fell in the draft to the Jets at say pick 5 then the fans would be crying wah no one wanted him number 1 he's gonna suck..

[Sperm Edwards]

Perhaps we should start another thread where grown men weep for draft picks and tell fairytales about Mariota becoming the bestest QB ever.

 

Fact of the matter is history shows more QB's bust than not when taken at # 1 and there's nothing I've heard that makes me think MM is Andrew Luck.

 

You are far exaggerating the point because some don't agree with your premise. 

 

Look at it this way:

 

Eli Manning was a #1 overall pick, has 2 rings, SB MVP type stuff. And no one thinks he is or was remotely close to being the bestest QB ever. 

 

Terry Bradshaw was in no way the bestest QB ever, and though none of us watched every snap he took like many do with today's players, there are few who would say he was ever the bestest in the league in any 1 season of his 4-ring career.

 

This list also doesn't consider players who were good enough prospects to get taken #1 but didn't, either due to a coin toss or GMs having anxiety over being wrong (Rodgers was supposed to go no later than #3, for example), or other extenuating circumstances (Steve Young joining the USFL for a bajillion dollars instead of bumping Irving Fryar down to the #2 pick).

 

And a lot of other #1 QBs, who weren't anywhere close to bestest ever types, may have been good enough if they were in just the right situation (like Bradshaw).

[Klecko73isGod]

Take Jim Plunkett off the list. He was a bust for NE and just a journeyman QB with Geno-like stats, that the Pats wasted a #1 pick on.. Came around much later in his career.

 

Yeah... take a Heisman winner who went on to win two Super Bowls off the list....

[j4jets]

A dozen superbowls were won with a QB picked #1 overall. Considering how many good QBs have come and go in this league without getting taken #1, and considering how many #1 overall picks went to crappy teams who were trapped in their crappiness before the advent of free agency, I'd stay that's a pretty high number. Even with all that, 25% of all superbowls were won with a QB picked #1 overall. Multiple-ring winners doesn't at all lessen the impact.

 

Taking a QB #1 - even taking a great QB (or potentially great QB) #1 - guarantees nothing. But it certainly helps. And you're more likely to find one there than with the #1 pick in any other round, and I'd wager more than any other individual draft slot.

 

 

Since 1937

 

QBs Drafted: 30 

Probow/All Pro QBs: 15 (besides the obvious, it includes players such as Vick, Palmer, Alex Smith, and even Testaverde) 

Average-Above average QBs: 7 (includes players such as Matthew Stafford, Jeff George etc)

Busts: 8 (Jamarcus, Carr, Couch etc)

 

So 50% chance we draft a PB or an All-Pro QB, and about 25% chance each we draft a bust or an average QB. With all indications, Mariotta may end up in that average-above group. 

[Pcola]

Well apparently Tony Dungy, Chip Kelly, and several senior scouts seem to think he will be elite. Dungy used Aaron Rodgers as a comparison. The days where Tim Couch go #1 overall are over.

There is so much more scrutiny and preparation now than 10-15 years ago. Mariota will be a Pro Bowl QB in a couple of seasons, and we will still be losing double digit games a year.

[Savage69]

Well apparently Tony Dungy, Chip Kelly, and several senior scouts seem to think he will be elite. Dungy used Aaron Rodgers as a comparison. The days where Tim Couch go #1 overall are over.

There is so much more scrutiny and preparation now than 10-15 years ago. Mariota will be a Pro Bowl QB in a couple of seasons, and we will still be losing double digit games a year.

Yet Denver still took Tebow in the first rd in 2010..

[HessStation]

They should take a Safety. 

[The Crusher]

if we end up picking in the top 10 I say we just forfeit the pick

Stop being so pessimistic.  We should put the top ten players names in a hat and have someone in the crowd pick the name out of a hat.  Science.

[The Crusher]

They should take a Safety. 

Every draft till we get the franchise safety teams need to win the big one. 

[HessStation]

In a way, it doesn't matter where we pick

Just stay away from 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10 overall. Never won dick in those spots.

[HessStation]

Every draft till we get the franchise safety teams need to win the big one. 

The Franchise Safety = most underrated player in pro sports 

[Klecko73isGod]

The Franchise Safety = most underrated player in pro sports 

 

Actually.... Ronnie Lott, Troy Polamalu, Ed Reed, Darren Woodson, Rodney Harrison (Pats haven't won dick since he retired, ) Rod Woodson, Mel Renfro, Willie Wood. 

[Bugg]

no one is saying that #1 overall pick is a slam dunk.

 

what we are saying is that picking a QB in the later rounds is a lottery ticket. Picking a QB #1 is like flipping a coin. Neither is guaranteed, but give me the coin toss not the powerball ticket, please.

Russell. Couch and Carr have been inarguably busts. As to the rest they've either beeen wildly successful QBs to at worst servicable starters.

Once again as sure as your tree showing up in your living room, Ryan screws this franchise by winning a December bumfight. The odds are Mariota would have a great upside and be no0 worse than a solid starter. The rest is details. If you want to talk about a "Jet decision" this team should've tanked, Ryan's pride be damned. After getting whipped by the Bills in Detroit, this MORON has forfeited any right to run his mouth.

[Bugg]

Every draft till we get the franchise safety teams need to win the big one.

Or a 4th or even 5th DL guy. Would think defensive genius Rex Ryan might develop a pass rusher in 6 seasons Guess again.

[Savage69]

Or a 4th or even 5th DL guy. Would think defensive genius Rex Ryan might develop a pass rusher in 6 seasons Guess again.

Snacks,Pouha and Devito all played better under Rex. Some Pass rushers are just natural at it like Abe you either have it or you don't in most cases.. 

[bergenjets]

Yeah... take a Heisman winner who went on to win two Super Bowls off the list....

 

He did nothing except lose games for the team that drafted him. Let's say the Jets draft Mariota and he sucks it up, becomes a FA, plays for a few different teams, then finally wins the SB when he is in his mid-30's. Would that be a good pick for the Jets?

 

IMO, Plunkett has no place on the list. He was no "savior" for the team that drafted him and that is what the title implies about the list. I don't want the Jets to draft another team's future SB winner.

[jgb]

Russell. Couch and Carr have been inarguably busts. As to the rest they've either beeen wildly successful QBs to at worst servicable starters.

Once again as sure as your tree showing up in your living room, Ryan screws this franchise by winning a December bumfight. The odds are Mariota would have a great upside and be no0 worse than a solid starter. The rest is details. If you want to talk about a "Jet decision" this team should've tanked, Ryan's pride be damned. After getting whipped by the Bills in Detroit, this MORON has forfeited any right to run his mouth.

 

sums up the rex ryan era for you

[vincenzo69]

I'd be happy with drafting Amari Cooper and trading a 5th rd pick for Cutler. Mike Glennon will probably be available for a late rd pick he's better than just about every name I've heard mentioned

[vincenzo69]

Snacks,Pouha and Devito all played better under Rex. Some Pass rushers are just natural at it like Abe you either have it or you don't in most cases.. 

Rex is a one-dimension coach. He's great at developing d-line and defensive X's and Os problem is when the roster is devoid of talent as it is now hes not skilled enough to coach up crap. Darrin Walls is a fine 4th corner - thanks to Idzik he's been our #1 CB most of the year.