the longer this goes on the less i want Fitz

[ylekram]

12 hours ago, MetsJets1962 said:

I mean i get that the Jets are playing a bit of brinkmanship here but it's clear they're not that high on him. do they actually see him as a legit starting QB. I  can't see him repeating last season's numbers and the more i think about it i'd rather take a punt on someone else. 

in this world of instant gratification, i wonder why

[pointman]

49 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I'm not worried about the "knowing the system" reason. Every QB does well in year 1 of playing with Gailey. Offense in general isn't always so awesome, but the QB's get an instant boost from what they were.

Year 1 QB'ing for Chan Gailey:

1996 Steelers = Mike Tomczak a year earlier posted 1 TD to 9 INTs in 5 games. Losing O'Donnell to us, he was named OC and was handed Tomczak as his starting QB. Yancey Thigpen also missed most of the season to injury.They still somehow finished with a top-15 offense as Tomczak finished with nearly a 1:1 TD:INT ratio. He still kind of sucked, but compare that to the year before when he had a healthy Thigpen to throw to.

1998 Cowboys = Troy Aikman was already on a visible decline for the prior a couple of years and (at least on paper) had his best season since '95. The handful of games he missed to injury, Gailey got Jason Garrett to look like an actual NFL QB.

2000 Dolphins = Jay Fiedler was a 29 year-old, undrafted, backup nobody with 1 start and barely 100 pass attempts since college (where he played for freaking Dartmouth). His only live action facing an actual defense, the prior year for Jacksonville, he went 8-of-22, 0 TD, 2 INTs. Gailey turned him into a legitimate NFL starter, including pretty good games against the Ravens' all-time defense. He wasn't awesome, but hey it was Jay Fiedler in his first legitimate action since, well, ever.

2008 Chiefs = Tyler Thigpen. Second year 7th round nobody with 6 career pass attempts in garbage time. Throws 18 TDs and 12 INTs. A big zero before Gailey and after Gailey. With Gailey this inexperienced zero is an actual NFL starting QB. Unreal.

2010 Bills = Ryan Fitzpatrick. Two unremarkable seasons with under 10 TDs, and nominally more picks than TDs. The next 3 years in a row he's throwing 2 dozen TDs a season. Yeah he's turning it over a bit as well, but it's Ryan Fitzpatrick; that's what he does.

 

So I'm really not worried about any QB's first year in Gailey's system. Literally every QB undergoes a big (if not seemingly impossible) improvement when it happens. If they perform so hideously it's not because of how few years in Gailey's offense; it's because they cannot play the position at the NFL level.

Great post..thanks.

[Bugg]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I'm not worried about the "knowing the system" reason. Every QB does well in year 1 of playing with Gailey. Offense in general isn't always so awesome, but the QB's get an instant boost from what they were.

Year 1 QB'ing for Chan Gailey:

1996 Steelers = Mike Tomczak a year earlier posted 1 TD to 9 INTs in 5 games. Losing O'Donnell to us, he was named OC and was handed Tomczak as his starting QB. Yancey Thigpen also missed most of the season to injury.They still somehow finished with a top-15 offense as Tomczak finished with nearly a 1:1 TD:INT ratio. He still kind of sucked, but compare that to the year before when he had a healthy Thigpen to throw to.

1998 Cowboys = Troy Aikman was already on a visible decline for the prior a couple of years and (at least on paper) had his best season since '95. The handful of games he missed to injury, Gailey got Jason Garrett to look like an actual NFL QB.

2000 Dolphins = Jay Fiedler was a 29 year-old, undrafted, backup nobody with 1 start and barely 100 pass attempts since college (where he played for freaking Dartmouth). His only live action facing an actual defense, the prior year for Jacksonville, he went 8-of-22, 0 TD, 2 INTs. Gailey turned him into a legitimate NFL starter, including pretty good games against the Ravens' all-time defense. He wasn't awesome, but hey it was Jay Fiedler in his first legitimate action since, well, ever.

2008 Chiefs = Tyler Thigpen. Second year 7th round nobody with 6 career pass attempts in garbage time. Throws 18 TDs and 12 INTs. A big zero before Gailey and after Gailey. With Gailey this inexperienced zero is an actual NFL starting QB. Unreal.

2010 Bills = Ryan Fitzpatrick. Two unremarkable seasons with under 10 TDs, and nominally more picks than TDs. The next 3 years in a row he's throwing 2 dozen TDs a season. Yeah he's turning it over a bit as well, but it's Ryan Fitzpatrick; that's what he does.

 

So I'm really not worried about any QB's first year in Gailey's system. Literally every QB undergoes a big (if not seemingly impossible) improvement when it happens. If they perform so hideously it's not because of how few years in Gailey's offense; it's because they cannot play the position at the NFL level.

It's math. At $8 to even 10 million, perhaps you roll the dice with Fitz for 2 years guaranteed. At anything higher than that, objective fact is taking a chance Petty/RG3/draft pick/trade makes more sense. Because fair bet Fitz regresses to his mean. Like he did in Buffalo in Week 17. I want him back, but only if it makes cap $ sense. 

Not Geno Smith. Geno Smith blows months decaying dead animals. 

[Embrace the Suck]

22 minutes ago, Bugg said:

It's math. At $8 to even 10 million, perhaps you roll the dice with Fitz for 2 years guaranteed. At anything higher than that, objective fact is taking a chance Petty/RG3/draft pick/trade makes more sense. Because fair bet Fitz regresses to his mean. Like he did in Buffalo in Week 17. I want him back, but only if it makes cap $ sense. 

Not Geno Smith. Geno Smith blows months decaying dead animals. 

No way. You don't guarantee Fitz any money past this season. There is no need to, he has no market other than the Jets. Not only is there no need to, to do so would be foolish.  

[Mainejet]

It doesn't make any sense to start all over again. If you change QB's, it all starts from scratch all over again. It likely means that we'll take a step backward before things get any better. I want this team to move forward. I mean after all, that's the point of this whole thing. GM's and HC's careers are at stake.

So to say, "take a punt on someone else" is a sentence that ONLY someone who does not give a f*ck would say and I'm sorry but you're never going to find anyone like that in the Jets front office.

The Jets are going to make every effort to sign Fitz back.

[joewilly12]

4 minutes ago, Mainejet said:

It doesn't make any sense to start all over again. If you change QB's, it all starts from scratch all over again. It likely means that we'll take a step backward before things get any better. I want this team to move forward. I mean after all, that's the point of this whole thing. GM's and HC's careers are at stake.

So to say, "take a punt on someone else" is a sentence that ONLY someone who does not give a f*ck would say and I'm sorry but you're never going to find anyone like that in the Jets front office.

The Jets are going to make every effort to sign Fitz back.

Start over? You act like Fitzpatrick has been a mainstay star QB here for the last 10 years. 

[Mainejet]

21 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

Start over? You act like Fitzpatrick has been a mainstay star QB here for the last 10 years. 

And you think giving Geno the starting job would NOT be starting over?

[Xtina]

Fitz attained some Jets records but it was not actually a career year for him. He had a better season the year before on the Texans, and they got rid of him. I'm with OP the longer this goes on the less attractive he gets 

[MetsJets1962]

Of course they see him as a legit NFL starter. He gave the Jets the highest level of play at the QB position that they had had in 18 years. The question is: should they invest 16+ mil per year for a 33 year old QB who has never played in the post season, when they have limited cap room. I really hope they can work something out. I'm certain there are teams willing to over pay for him.

Doesn't seem like anyone is willing to overpay for him, thankfully the Jets included

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[MetsJets1962]

It doesn't make any sense to start all over again. If you change QB's, it all starts from scratch all over again. It likely means that we'll take a step backward before things get any better. I want this team to move forward. I mean after all, that's the point of this whole thing. GM's and HC's careers are at stake.

So to say, "take a punt on someone else" is a sentence that ONLY someone who does not give a f*ck would say and I'm sorry but you're never going to find anyone like that in the Jets front office.

The Jets are going to make every effort to sign Fitz back.

Not sure what you mean by not giving a ****. I'd say there's no chance of Fitzpatrick repeating last years numbers. It seems like every team with QB needs including the Jets senses that too. Hey if the Jets resign him and he has another great year I'll be the first on here eating humble pie and I'll be over the moon about it. So dial it back a notch

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[joewilly12]

1 hour ago, Mainejet said:

And you think giving Geno the starting job would NOT be starting over?

Who knows,Geno is young strong and athletic maybe he excels under Gailey and with an offense around him. 

[BowlesMovement]

5 minutes ago, MetsJets1962 said:

Not sure what you mean by not giving a ****. I'd say there's no chance of Fitzpatrick repeating last years numbers. It seems like every team with QB needs including the Jets senses that too. Hey if the Jets resign him and he has another great year I'll be the first on here eating humble pie and I'll be over the moon about it. So dial it back a notch

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If Marshall, Decker and Forte are healthy, Amaro gives them anything, all with a year in the same system together except Forte, I see no reason they can't at least duplicate last year, if not even exceed it. Schedule difficulty is hard to gauge from one season to the next.

[joewilly12]

6 hours ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

This just in, no matter who starts for the Jets this season they have obvious limitations. Some are physical, some are mental, some are both. We aren't dealing with the cream of the crop here. This is just searching for a QB for 2016 until they can find a better and hopefully more permanent solution. 

Then so be it Geno is the cheap starter and if needed Petty can relieve him we can sign a cheap vet free agent for insurance and to take up the 3rd QB spot no reason to throw big money at Fitzpatrick. 

[Sperm Edwards]

15 minutes ago, BowlesMovement said:

If Marshall, Decker and Forte are healthy, Amaro gives them anything, all with a year in the same system together except Forte, I see no reason they can't at least duplicate last year, if not even exceed it. Schedule difficulty is hard to gauge from one season to the next.

Agree. But as of right now it's looking decidedly more difficult. Only way it rivals last year's matchups is if key players on like 5 different teams sit out the game when we play them.

• NE was hobbled when we played them (but there's always that delusional hope for us, that Brady is suspended when we play this year).
• Baltimore sucked last year - worse than expected - so they should be better. Still, they may not be good yet.
• Rams? Hard to say. They could be a tough matchup due to their D or they could be on their way to another top 5 pick in 2017.
• Cleveland will be a joke. There is no way they will be a good football team in 2016.
• I suppose it's possible San Fran mimics Chip Kelly's Philadelphia, in that they'll still be a meh or bad team, but they'll find a way to put points on the board.

Yes it's possible these are all or mostly flops this year, but the rest of our non-divisional games are Cincy, Seattle, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Arizona, Kansas City. Combine those with the pair of divisional games vs NE and that's 8 legitimately tough opponents as of right now. It's only as low as 8 if all the rest are as bad or worse than expected and don't have good games the week we play them.

Anything can happen. Schedules in the fall often - if not commonly or even usually - are different than they looked back in the spring. But it doesn't look good at all.

[MetsJets1962]

If Marshall, Decker and Forte are healthy, Amaro gives them anything, all with a year in the same system together except Forte, I see no reason they can't at least duplicate last year, if not even exceed it. Schedule difficulty is hard to gauge from one season to the next.

I'd say the schedule is significantly more difficult next season

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[Charlie Brown]

4 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I'm not worried about the "knowing the system" reason. Every QB does well in year 1 of playing with Gailey. Offense in general isn't always so awesome, but the QB's get an instant boost from what they were.

Year 1 QB'ing for Chan Gailey:

1996 Steelers = Mike Tomczak a year earlier posted 1 TD to 9 INTs in 5 games. Losing O'Donnell to us, he was named OC and was handed Tomczak as his starting QB. Yancey Thigpen also missed most of the season to injury.They still somehow finished with a top-15 offense as Tomczak finished with nearly a 1:1 TD:INT ratio. He still kind of sucked, but compare that to the year before when he had a healthy Thigpen to throw to.

1998 Cowboys = Troy Aikman was already on a visible decline for the prior a couple of years and (at least on paper) had his best season since '95. The handful of games he missed to injury, Gailey got Jason Garrett to look like an actual NFL QB.

2000 Dolphins = Jay Fiedler was a 29 year-old, undrafted, backup nobody with 1 start and barely 100 pass attempts since college (where he played for freaking Dartmouth). His only live action facing an actual defense, the prior year for Jacksonville, he went 8-of-22, 0 TD, 2 INTs. Gailey turned him into a legitimate NFL starter, including pretty good games against the Ravens' all-time defense. He wasn't awesome, but hey it was Jay Fiedler in his first legitimate action since, well, ever.

2008 Chiefs = Tyler Thigpen. Second year 7th round nobody with 6 career pass attempts in garbage time. Throws 18 TDs and 12 INTs. A big zero before Gailey and after Gailey. With Gailey this inexperienced zero is an actual NFL starting QB. Unreal.

2010 Bills = Ryan Fitzpatrick. Two unremarkable seasons with under 10 TDs, and nominally more picks than TDs. The next 3 years in a row he's throwing 2 dozen TDs a season. Yeah he's turning it over a bit as well, but it's Ryan Fitzpatrick; that's what he does.

 

So I'm really not worried about any QB's first year in Gailey's system. Literally every QB undergoes a big (if not seemingly impossible) improvement when it happens. If they perform so hideously it's not because of how few years in Gailey's offense; it's because they cannot play the position at the NFL level.

This is an awesome post and made me feel 1000% better if anyone else other that Fitz is under center!!!!

[BowlesMovement]

14 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Agree. But as of right now it's looking decidedly more difficult. Only way it rivals last year's matchups is if key players on like 5 different teams sit out the game when we play them.

• NE was hobbled when we played them (but there's always that delusional hope for us, that Brady is suspended when we play this year).
• Baltimore sucked last year - worse than expected - so they should be better. Still, they may not be good yet.
• Rams? Hard to say. They could be a tough matchup due to their D or they could be on their way to another top 5 pick in 2017.
• Cleveland will be a joke. There is no way they will be a good football team in 2016.
• I suppose it's possible San Fran mimics Chip Kelly's Philadelphia, in that they'll still be a meh or bad team, but they'll find a way to put points on the board.

Yes it's possible these are all or mostly flops this year, but the rest of our non-divisional games are Cincy, Seattle, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Arizona, Kansas City. Combine those with the pair of divisional games vs NE and that's 8 legitimately tough opponents as of right now. It's only as low as 8 if all the rest are as bad or worse than expected and don't have good games the week we play them.

Anything can happen. Schedules in the fall often - if not commonly or even usually - are different than they looked back in the spring. But it doesn't look good at all.

Cindy, Seattle, Arizona, KC are all tough defenses, and will continue to be, but Indy and Pitts defense don't really scare me, but overall I agree on paper, it looks tougher than this year, but I also expect the Jets offense to improve, when Powell was healthy, it was a different offense, I think Powell and Forte provide a much needed receiving threat out of the backfield. I also thought they improved as the season went on.

Of course, health plays into all of it.

 

[Charlie Brown]

1 hour ago, Xtina said:

Fitz attained some Jets records but it was not actually a career year for him. He had a better season the year before on the Texans, and they got rid of him. I'm with OP the longer this goes on the less attractive he gets 

And this is why his agents have done a poor job!!

[jetsjets]

I fear RG3 will sign elsewhere while we wait on Fitz. Then he can really stick it to us. I like Fitz but he isn't going to repeat last years numbers and can't  push the ball down field. This is the NFL. Other teams will adjust to our short ball game. I say sign RG3 now. Sign him cheap and let Geno and him battle it out. Is Fitz that much better than them? I think not!

[BowlesMovement]

Just now, jetsjets said:

I fear RG3 will sign elsewhere while we wait on Fitz. Then he can really stick it to us. I like Fitz but he isn't going to repeat last years numbers and can push the ball down field. This is the NFL. Other teams will adjust to our short ball game. I say sign RG3 now. Sign him cheap and let Geno and him battle it out. Is Fitz that much better than them? I think not!

I really don't think losing RG3 is anything to fear at all

[MetsJets1962]

I fear RG3 will sign elsewhere while we wait on Fitz. Then he can really stick it to us. I like Fitz but he isn't going to repeat last years numbers and can't  push the ball down field. This is the NFL. Other teams will adjust to our short ball game. I say sign RG3 now. Sign him cheap and let Geno and him battle it out. Is Fitz that much better than them? I think not!

Yep, I think RG3 has a lot to prove and could have a big year. Then again he could be utter sh*te

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[jgb]

It doesn't make any sense to start all over again. If you change QB's, it all starts from scratch all over again. It likely means that we'll take a step backward before things get any better. I want this team to move forward. I mean after all, that's the point of this whole thing. GM's and HC's careers are at stake.

So to say, "take a punt on someone else" is a sentence that ONLY someone who does not give a f*ck would say and I'm sorry but you're never going to find anyone like that in the Jets front office.

The Jets are going to make every effort to sign Fitz back.

Logic and reason has not place here all these tough guys think Macc should negotiate like a gangster demanding protection money from a mom and pop store

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[jgb]

Who knows,Geno is young strong and athletic maybe he excels under Gailey and with an offense around him. 

Maybe isn't a strategy. Anyone who bets on Geno is a compulsive gambler because it's nothing but a reckless long shot to hope his IQ hoes up 20 points overnight.

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[jgb]

Not sure what you mean by not giving a ****. I'd say there's no chance of Fitzpatrick repeating last years numbers. It seems like every team with QB needs including the Jets senses that too. Hey if the Jets resign him and he has another great year I'll be the first on here eating humble pie and I'll be over the moon about it. So dial it back a notch

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No chance huh? There is a greater chance that Fitz breaks the single season TD record than Geno ever has a season like Fitz just did.

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[#27TheDominator]

Sperm mentioned 6 QBs and 3 were from Ivy League schools. Maybe there is something to liking a smart QB...

[kmnj]

go away fitz you are a jag that NOBODY wants-the browns dont want you and the broncos signed sanchez

Jets need to move on from this noodle arm clown

trade for kap if not bring in rg3 or roll with Petty

Fitz when its over you and ian desmond cant meet up and discuss who is dumber 

As far as Bmarsh goes, he is a great wr and before fitz took over he talked up geno-he will talk up whoever he thinks is going to be throwing at him and I hope it is Kap

 

[Mike135]

Can't figure out the last one.  Any ideas?

Fitz situation in movie titles:

Fitz at the start:  I am Legend

Nfl reaction to Fitz:  American Psycho

Browns reaction to Fitz:  Better Off Dead

John Elway:  He's Just Not That Into You

Denver fans view of Fitz's arm:  Gone with the Wind

Jets view of Fitz and his agent:  Dumb and Dumber

Fitz at the end:  The Crying Game

Jets in the end:  ???

 

[Tinstar]

29 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

Can't figure out the last one.  Any ideas?

Fitz situation in movie titles:

Fitz at the start:  I am Legend

Nfl reaction to Fitz:  American Psycho

Browns reaction to Fitz:  Better Off Dead

John Elway:  He's Just Not That Into You

Denver fans view of Fitz's arm:  Gone with the Wind

Jets view of Fitz and his agent:  Dumb and Dumber

Fitz at the end:  The Crying Game

Jets in the end:  ???

 

We know what you did last fall

[ljr]

7 hours ago, JETSfaninNE said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but the bolded I believe is wrong.  I think Macc said right now Petty has the tools to definitely be a #2 and that his  ceiling is as high as a starting QB if he can put it all together and earn it in live action (TC/Preseason)  if I remember that interview correctly.

My comment was in response to '80's post that 2016 will answer if Petty can be the long term answer if the jets let Fitz walk. (I don't see them letting him walk from their end because of this view) 

 

... here is the comment by Bowles

 

http://nypost.com/2016/02/25/jets-to-give-petty-chance-to-take-no-2-qb-job-away-from-geno/

 

 

Jets to give Petty chance to take No. 2 QB job away from Geno

By Brian Costello

February 25, 2016 | 10:05pm

 

Bryce Petty and Geno Smith Photo: Bill Kostroun (2)

INDIANAPOLIS — The Jets were intent last season to give rookie quarterback Bryce Petty a year to learn the offense without having to play. But it sounds as if he will have a chance to win the backup job in 2016.

Jets coach Todd Bowles indicated this week that Petty will get to compete with Geno Smith for the backup job behind Ryan Fitzpatrick, whom the Jets expect to re-sign.

 

“That will be determined in preseason and how well he does in summer camp and spring,” Bowles said.

Petty is an intriguing player. A fourth-round pick last year out of Baylor, Petty has shown he has great arm strength and was prolific in college. He threw for 3,855 yards and 29 touchdowns as a senior, but faced a lot of questions about whether he could succeed in the NFL or was just a product of Baylor’s system.

Petty did not play a snap as a rookie, but the Jets coaches liked what they saw from Petty in practice. Still, no one is ready to anoint him as the Jets’ long-term answer at quarterback just yet.

“I think he’s developed. I think he’s still developing,” Bowles said. “We’ll see when preseason and camp rolls around next year how much he’s developed and whether the game has slowed down for him a little bit. We know he’s a talent and he can throw. He’s bright and he’s learning and he will keep progressing forward.”

Petty’s progress could mean the end of Smith’s time with the Jets. The 2013 second-round pick is a cheap backup ($1.5 million salary-cap number) so there is no reason to cut him unless the Jets believe Petty is the better backup option.

Bowles did not exactly give Smith a ringing endorsement here when asked his thoughts on Smith.

“Right now, Geno’s our backup quarterback,” Bowles said.

This year, the quarterback competition to watch with the Jets might be Smith and Petty fighting it out for the No. 2 job.

[Tinstar]

Turns out Bowles might have gotten ahead of himself. Right now, Geno Smith is the starting QB of the NYJets .

[ljr]

2 minutes ago, Tinstar said:

Turns out Bowles might have gotten ahead of himself. Right now, Geno Smith is the starting QB of the NYJets .

That also is a leverage tool in regards to Fitz.

if Fitz does return I expect Geno to be moved ... Def by end of TC

[Tinstar]

1 minute ago, ljr said:

That also is a leverage tool in regards to Fitz.

if Fitz does return I expect Geno to be moved ... Def by end of TC

I'll tell you what I expect, would like to see happen.  4 QBs enter training camp and the 3 best make the roster with the 4th going on injured reserved . To me that would mean the Jets have someone in the pipeline who could be the eventual starting QB of this team .

[ljr]

1 minute ago, Tinstar said:

I'll tell you what I expect, would like to see happen.  4 QBs enter training camp and the 3 best make the roster with the 4th going on injured reserved . To me that would mean the Jets have someone in the pipeline who could be the eventual starting QB of this team .

Time will tell 

[MetsJets1962]

No chance huh? There is a greater chance that Fitz breaks the single season TD record than Geno ever has a season like Fitz just did.

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I never mentioned Geno

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[Ohio State NY Jets fan]

1 hour ago, Mike135 said:

Jets in the end:  ???

 

Empire Strikes Back