Possible Mo Trade Scenario

[whodeawhodat]

Tennessee now has stockpiled picks with their recent trade with the rams. I believe they have a first rounder, 3 second rounders and 2 third rounders and plenty of cap space.  How many of those picks do they Jets get for mo in a possible trade?  I'd be ecstatic with their first 2 picks of the second round for Mo. What say you? 

[Integrity28]

This came up a lot in the thread about the trade. Three things:

1. They have cap space for his contract

2. They have picks to give us

3. They've already entertained a offer from us that likely included him

i think they're a good candidate as trade partner.

[jamesr]

Interestingly, the value of Tenn's top two second rounders (#33 and #43) is exactly the same as their 1st rounder (#15).

I'd be surprised if they gave up the two higher picks straight

Also, a flip of picks in Round 1 could be included in some sort of deal, if we wanted to move up in Rd 1 a little. Lots of options, and plenty time to explore those options ... you can bet Macc and Tennessee will be talking quite a bit in the coming days.

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

18 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

This came up a lot in the thread about the trade. Three things:

1. They have cap space for his contract

2. They have picks to give us

3. They've already entertained a offer from us that likely included him

i think they're a good candidate as trade partner.

4. LaBeau

5. 2015 Jets ranked 1st in ALY on runs off left end, Titans 26th.

Tennessee makes a lot of sense. The first overall pick never had anything to do with it and now there's a lot of flexibility to do a deal. I still don't like the idea of trading our best player as a matter of triage, but it appears that donkey left the station a year ago when we handed out all those legacy scholarships.

[smaxor5]

6 minutes ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

4. LaBeau

5. 2015 Jets ranked 1st in ALY on runs off left end, Titans 26th.

Tennessee makes a lot of sense. The first overall pick never had anything to do with it and now there's a lot of flexibility to do a deal. I still don't like the idea of trading our best player as a matter of triage, but it appears that donkey left the station a year ago when we handed out all those legacy scholarships.

Or it happened when we (correctly) drafted Leonard Williams giving us the opportunity to turn a guy who wants a crippling amount of money at a non-premium position into a few picks that will help this team get BETTER...or does everyone just really like ability to brag about how "stacked" our dline is ignoring the fact that it doesn't generate any PRESSURE on the qb?

[whodeawhodat]

1 hour ago, Integrity28 said:

This came up a lot in the thread about the trade. Three things:

1. They have cap space for his contract

2. They have picks to give us

3. They've already entertained a offer from us that likely included him

i think they're a good candidate as trade partner.

What do you think the trade will go down as? 2 twos and a three?  honestly, if the titans do that, they get a sure fire end out of the draft and still have a pick in each round.

[Augustiniak]

let's say mccags and tenn already have a framework for that deal in place.  would the jets reach a bit for lynch or cook in the first round to secure a qb they believe they can win with, or roll the dice in the 2nd and just take BAP in the first?  that could really test the model b/c qbs go fast.

[Villain The Foe]

1 hour ago, whodeawhodat said:

Tennessee now has stockpiled picks with their recent trade with the rams. I believe they have a first rounder, 3 second rounders and 2 third rounders and plenty of cap space.  How many of those picks do they Jets get for mo in a possible trade?  I'd be ecstatic with their first 2 picks of the second round for Mo. What say you? 

See if we could get two 2nd rounders. I'd take that. 

[BigRy56]

Two second rounders for Mo would be ideal. The strength of this draft is in the second round and Mac could find a lot of great talent with 3 second rounders.

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

47 minutes ago, smaxor5 said:

Or it happened when we (correctly) drafted Leonard Williams giving us the opportunity to turn a guy who wants a crippling amount of money at a non-premium position into a few picks that will help this team get BETTER...or does everyone just really like ability to brag about how "stacked" our dline is ignoring the fact that it doesn't generate any PRESSURE on the qb?

So let's throw twelve sacks out the window. Good plan.

[Augustiniak]

Just now, BigRy56 said:

Two second rounders for Mo would be ideal. The strength of this draft is in the second round and Mac could find a lot of great talent with 3 second rounders.

i would guess they could get tenn's 2nd and a 3rd, but not tenn's 3rd.  that would still be pretty good, considering NE doesn't pick in round 1.

[Dcat]

How about we give them Mo + our #20 for their #15 and #45?

Trade value chart has a #45 value as 450 and the trade up to #15 as 200.  That would give Mo a value of 650, which, ironically, is the value of a 1st round pick 29.  Mo was drafted 1st round #30, I think.

Or trade Mo to them for #45 and #76 (combined trade value of 660), giving Mo a round 1, pick 28 value?

[Dcat]

9 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

See if we could get two 2nd rounders. I'd take that. 

[smaxor5]

2 minutes ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

So let's throw twelve sacks out the window. Good plan.

Lets take our best player (Richardson) and play him out of position just so Wilkerson can get his coverage sacks.  Good plan.

[brian101193]

4 minutes ago, Dcat said:

How about we give them Mo + our #20 for their #15 and #45?

Trade value chart has a #45 value as 450 and the trade up to #15 as 200.  That would give Mo a value of 650, which, ironically, is the value of a 1st round pick 29.  Mo was drafted 1st round #30, I think.

Or trade Mo to them for #45 and #76 (combined trade value of 660), giving Mo a round 1, pick 28 value?

 

I think he's worth more than 28 or 29 overall. I like the idea of two 2nd rounders for him, this draft is apparently pretty deep.

[BigRy56]

10 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

i would guess they could get tenn's 2nd and a 3rd, but not tenn's 3rd.  that would still be pretty good, considering NE doesn't pick in round 1.

Absolutely, at this point it seems like Mo is gone no matter what. A second and third, although not a first, isn't peanuts and Mac could do some damage with it. Maybe even package our threes to move back up into the second and pick up three starters in the second round.

[Sperm Edwards]

5 minutes ago, brian101193 said:

 

I think he's worth more than 28 or 29 overall. I like the idea of two 2nd rounders for him, this draft is apparently pretty deep.

He isn't if no one is willing to give us more than that. The team trading for him - like the team turning down such an offer for him - would be giving up 3 likely starters. 

Known quantity Mo for an unknown quantity of a draft pick is a vast oversimplification of such a trade. 

[Dcat]

4 minutes ago, brian101193 said:

 

I think he's worth more than 28 or 29 overall. I like the idea of two 2nd rounders for him, this draft is apparently pretty deep.

You may 'like' the idea (I sure do), but Tennessee wouldn't do that.  It is doubtful that any team is going to give up value any higher than a very late 1st round pick.  In fact, the most likely scenario, IMO,  is Mo for a 2nd rounder. So if Mac were offered either the #45 + #76 for MO, or alternatively, #45 + #15 for Mo and #20, Mac should run, not walk, to sign that trade. 

[Rangers9]

1 hour ago, whodeawhodat said:

Tennessee now has stockpiled picks with their recent trade with the rams. I believe they have a first rounder, 3 second rounders and 2 third rounders and plenty of cap space.  How many of those picks do they Jets get for mo in a possible trade?  I'd be ecstatic with their first 2 picks of the second round for Mo. What say you? 

I saw that rumor yesterday and they also said that Tenn likes Wilk. It seems that Mac wants to trade him not to pay him. But it's obvious our D is not as good without him and without Snacks.

[Matt39]

1 hour ago, smaxor5 said:

Or it happened when we (correctly) drafted Leonard Williams giving us the opportunity to turn a guy who wants a crippling amount of money at a non-premium position into a few picks that will help this team get BETTER...or does everyone just really like ability to brag about how "stacked" our dline is ignoring the fact that it doesn't generate any PRESSURE on the qb?

What are Harris' and Skrines contracts compared to what Mo wants/gets? 

[Sperm Edwards]

Just now, Rangers9 said:

I saw that rumor yesterday and they also said that Tenn likes Wilk. It seems that Mac wants to trade him not to pay him. But it's obvious our D is not as good without him and without Snacks.

Maccagnan has made him offers. He turned them down. Let's see what deal Mo signs before screaming "cheapskate" in so many words. Like Snacks. I like him plenty. At >$9M/year I like the compensatory draft pick better.

[smaxor5]

1 minute ago, Matt39 said:

What are Harris' and Skrines contracts compared to what Mo wants/gets? 

Why do people want to pay the 3rd DE on the team top dollar to the point where we are considering cutting our 2nd best corner and the QB of the defense who had a pretty good year?  This is insanity.  

Here's the thing:  The Jets didn't WANT this to happen with Wilkerson...but it did.  We got gifted a home run prospect in Leonard Williams and have a better player in Sheldon on the roster.  That's just how it is...it's not a personal slight against Wilkerson, it's just how things played out.  As of right now it makes no sense to pay him top dollar when we have 2 VERY good starters that are cheap.  The popular moniker going around is "If Wilkerson was a free agent right now, would you sign him for top dollar?"  The answer is of course not...but we happen to have the added benefit of being able to trade said free agent for multiple picks that can make this team better immediately...you HAVE to do it.

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, Matt39 said:

What are Harris' and Skrines contracts compared to what Mo wants/gets? 

Millions less. Plus (while I didn't like the Harris deal at all) those 2 filled openings. Right now, good as he is, Mo does not. What's  worse, bringing him back means Bowles is going to force-feed a DT at OLB again instead of an actual OLB. The upgrade at DE, from Mo to Richardson, will be more than offset by the downgrade at OLB with Richardson out there. Not to mention $16M that can't be used in others still. 

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, smaxor5 said:

Why do people want to pay the 3rd DE on the team top dollar to the point where we are considering cutting our 2nd best corner and the QB of the defense who had a pretty good year?  This is insanity.  

Here's the thing:  The Jets didn't WANT this to happen with Wilkerson...but it did.  We got gifted a home run prospect in Leonard Williams and have a better player in Sheldon on the roster.  That's just how it is...it's not a personal slight against Wilkerson, it's just how things played out.  As of right now it makes no sense to pay him top dollar when we have 2 VERY good starters that are cheap.  The popular moniker going around is "If Wilkerson was a free agent right now, would you sign him for top dollar?"  The answer is of course not...but we happen to have the added benefit of being able to trade said free agent for multiple picks that can make this team better immediately...you HAVE to do it.

they want mo to be reasonable.  not everyone is.

[smaxor5]

1 minute ago, Augustiniak said:

they want mo to be reasonable.  not everyone is.

Exactly.  The fact that he wants Watt money (while not being NEARLY as good as Watt) certainly isn't helping either.

[Rangers9]

4 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Maccagnan has made him offers. He turned them down. Let's see what deal Mo signs before screaming "cheapskate" in so many words. Like Snacks. I like him plenty. At >$9M/year I like the compensatory draft pick better.

I'm not screaming cheapskate to Mac and he can keep Wilk for the franchise tag number of 15 for one year. Which is a great salary for Mo but he wants security and a multi year deal which would be for less per season. But Mac obviously needs that money for cap space  to sign more players and pay rookies. 

[PepPep]

5 minutes ago, Dcat said:

How about we give them Mo + our #20 for their #15 and #45?

Trade value chart has a #45 value as 450 and the trade up to #15 as 200.  That would give Mo a value of 650, which, ironically, is the value of a 1st round pick 29.  Mo was drafted 1st round #30, I think.

Or trade Mo to them for #45 and #76 (combined trade value of 660), giving Mo a round 1, pick 28 value?

This sounds feasible. And yes, I like the fact that this Rams/Titans deal got done b/c in fact, it DOES increase the possibility for the Jets to get a decent return for Mo. 

Here's how I look at it. The Jets wants a QB in the draft- not to start right away, but someone they can develop into a Franchise QB (this is why they kept saying they want Fitz back while aggressively scouting QBs). This is nothing new. I think they really like P.Lynch. Maybe they liked Goff or Wentz more, but it turned out that moving up to get one of them was way too costly (I thank the big spaghetti monster in the sky that they did not mortgage the future).

I think Mac was also looking closely to drafting an OT high in the draft. I think they really like Decker. If they want to make sure they get Decker and P.Lynch, they probably need to have 2 first round picks in the top 20. Yes, they may have one or both of those prospects be there at 20 for them and they may even be able to take one at 20 with THEIR pick and move back up into the back end of the 1st round to take the 2nd prospect. But if they want to SECURE both Decker (or a comparable OT prospect) and P.Lynch, they will need to have 2 draft picks in the top 20. 

In order to do this it will take more than what you are suggesting. But it can be done. And it would yield the Jets 2 1st round prospects at their 2 biggest positions of need. 

One possibility is that I am mistaken and the Jets prefer Spriggs over Decker. I think Spriggs should be there after 20. If P.Lynch falls to 20, the Jets can take him there, ad then move back up for Spriggs- or vice versa. 

Lots of options, and this is right in Macs wheelhouse- finagling trades and talent evaluation. Feeling good about the draft and can't wait to see how it all turns out.

ALSO- It's starting to seem like if a Wilk deal is going to happen with the Titans, it will happen BEFORE the draft. And if it does, there may be yet another deal where the Jets move up or down DURING the draft- depending on how the first round plays out. They are targeting very specific prospects and will go up to get them, and I think this will be a draft where Mac may stray from his strategy of picking BPA b/c he is focused in on certain players and positions (OT,QB)- and theres nothing wrong with that.     

  

[CrazyCarl40]

14 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

What are Harris' and Skrines contracts compared to what Mo wants/gets? 

Both are slated to make 7.5 million or more this season. Both overpaid, especially Skrine.

[Ghost]

17 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Maccagnan has made him offers. He turned them down. Let's see what deal Mo signs before screaming "cheapskate" in so many words. Like Snacks. I like him plenty. At >$9M/year I like the compensatory draft pick better.

At this point, are we still getting a comp pick for Snacks? 

[Dcat]

21 minutes ago, Ghost said:

At this point, are we still getting a comp pick for Snacks? 

No. Nothing, nada.  We lost 3 "qualifying UFAs" (Snacks, Ivory and D. Davis... the others got too small contracts to qualify), and we gained 3 "qualifying UFAs" (Forte, McLendon, Jarvis Jenkins).  It's a complete wash unless Fitz signs somewhere else.  We might get a 7th rounder based on the differences in the contracts for our 3 lost vs 3 acquired "quaifying UFAs".

http://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

New York Jets
Qualifying UFAs Lost: 3			Qualifying UFAs Gained: 3
Name	Rd.	Real APY	Name	Rd.	Real APY
Damon Harrison	4	$9,000,000	Matt Forte	6	$4,000,000
Chris Ivory	5	$6,400,000	Steve McLendon	6	$3,500,000
Demario Davis	6	$3,900,000	Jarvis Jenkins	7	$2,000,000
Non-Qualifying UFAs Lost			Non-Qualifying UFAs Gained
Darrin Walls	7	$840,000
Stevan Ridley	7	$840,000
Antonio Allen	7	$800,000

[PepPep]

31 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

Both are slated to make 7.5 million or more this season. Both overpaid, especially Skrine.

Skrine was signed by Mac for a lot b/c Mac felt he still had upside and expected him to improve, which could still be very much true. He said so himself- something to the extent that they really liked his measurables and he was just scratching the surface of his potential- don't quote me on that. 

He is slated to make $6.5- which is guaranteed. But his contract is front-loaded. His last 2 seasons (of a 4 year deal) are not guaranteed and he is slated to make 6mil. If he improves this year (not that he was bad last year) and continues to get better (which is what the Jets believed when they signed him), its hard to argue that he is overpaid, considering what good CBs get paid these days. 

Harris is set to make $7.5 in 2016- guaranteed. But his contract is front-loaded too. And he was only signed to a 3 year deal. So in 2017 he is set to make $6.5, which is NOT guaranteed and after which he is a FA. Sure, b/c of his age and struggles in coverage, you could argue that he is overpaid. But considering he is the defensive captain and on-field play-caller, notched over 100 tackles last season and is as stout as the come vs. the run, not to mention incredibly durable (I believe he missed 5 games in his career- don;t quote me on that) and a life-long Jet, I don't think he is nec. 'overpaid'. 

I have no problem with either of these players' contracts the way Mac put them together. That's just me.

I think fans (and I'm not nec. talking about you CrazyCarl40) often look at what a player is making this season, and if the team is in a cap bind and the player isn't a Pro Bowler, immediately have a knee-jerk reaction that they are overpaid or over-rated and the team needs to trade or cut them. I especially love when they suggest that drafting a rookie as a replacement is the way to go- ignoring the fact that most rookies can't come in and start and ALL rookies are a gamble and completely unproven in the NFL.  

[32EBoozer]

2 hours ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

4. LaBeau

5. 2015 Jets ranked 1st in ALY on runs off left end, Titans 26th.

Tennessee makes a lot of sense. The first overall pick never had anything to do with it and now there's a lot of flexibility to do a deal. I still don't like the idea of trading our best player as a matter of triage, but it appears that donkey left the station a year ago when we handed out all those legacy scholarships.

excellent POST. great info on Tenn. defensive woes.

[32EBoozer]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

He isn't if no one is willing to give us more than that. The team trading for him - like the team turning down such an offer for him - would be giving up 3 likely starters. 

Known quantity Mo for an unknown quantity of a draft pick is a vast oversimplification of such a trade. 

Mac would keep Mo IMO if he feels he's not getting fair value. It may sting a bit,

but they may be able to get a contract done with Mo that is reasonable and make him more of a known quantity for teams looking to trade for him. 

I believe Mo will be traded, but if it's only for a 2nd I say hold onto him and figure it out during the season.

Maybe Watt or Clemons or other very good player on a playoff team gets injured and a GM gets desperate at the deadline, Mo has more value

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

50 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Millions less. Plus (while I didn't like the Harris deal at all) those 2 filled openings. Right now, good as he is, Mo does not. What's  worse, bringing him back means Bowles is going to force-feed a DT at OLB again instead of an actual OLB. The upgrade at DE, from Mo to Richardson, will be more than offset by the downgrade at OLB with Richardson out there. 

I like how when we drafted Williams with Wilkerson and Richardson already on the roster it was great because 300-pound defensive linemen rotate and there's plenty of snaps to go around, and now that it looks like Wilkerson's on his way out it's also great because he was crowding out the other guys' playing time. This board's capacity for rationalizing stuff based on feelings never ceases to amaze me. Which probably makes me the idiot here.

[CrazyCarl40]

10 minutes ago, PepPep said:

Skrine was signed by Mac for a lot b/c Mac felt he still had upside and expected him to improve, which could still be very much true. He said so himself- something to the extent that they really liked his measurables and he was just scratching the surface of his potential- don't quote me on that. 

He is slated to make $6.5- which is guaranteed. But his contract is front-loaded. His last 2 seasons (of a 4 year deal) are not guaranteed and he is slated to make 6mil. If he improves this year (not that he was bad last year) and continues to get better (which is what the Jets believed when they signed him), its hard to argue that he is overpaid, considering what good CBs get paid these days. 

Harris is set to make $7.5 in 2016- guaranteed. But his contract is front-loaded too. And he was only signed to a 3 year deal. So in 2017 he is set to make $6.5, which is NOT guaranteed and after which he is a FA. Sure, b/c of his age and struggles in coverage, you could argue that he is overpaid. But considering he is the defensive captain and on-field play-caller, notched over 100 tackles last season and is as stout as the come vs. the run, not to mention incredibly durable (I believe he missed 5 games in his career- don;t quote me on that) and a life-long Jet, I don't think he is nec. 'overpaid'. 

I have no problem with either of these players' contracts the way Mac put them together. That's just me.

I think fans (and I'm not nec. talking about you CrazyCarl40) often look at what a player is making this season, and if the team is in a cap bind and the player isn't a Pro Bowler, immediately have a knee-jerk reaction that they are overpaid or over-rated and the team needs to trade or cut them. I especially love when they suggest that drafting a rookie as a replacement is the way to go- ignoring the fact that most rookies can't come in and start and ALL rookies are a gamble and completely unproven in the NFL.  

According to this: http://overthecap.com/calculator/new-york-jets/

Skrine is going to count 7.75 against the cap. It doesn't matter if he's only making 6.5. It's what counts against the cap that matters.

Also according to this:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/03/25/free-agency-five-worst-signings/

Skrine was a terrible signing because he's bad. In fact he was ranked as 114th worst corner out of about 130 they ranked. But, beieve what you will.