The NY Jets Worry Meter

[32EBoozer]

http://www.ganggreennation.com/2016/9/5/12800230/ny-jets-worry-meter

Agree or Disagree with the writers ratings?

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With the start of the regular season now just six days away, it is time for that age old tradition ofJets fans everywhere, fear and dread.  In some areas the team is in excellent shape. The Jets have one of the best pair of receivers in the NFL in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker.  The Jets have a nice offensive backfield in Matt Forte and Bilal Powell, two backs that are well suited to play in a Chan Gailey offense.  The Jets have a well above average left side of the offensive line in center Nick Mangold, left guard James Carpenter and left tackle Ryan Clady.  The Jets have a young and supremely talented trio of defensive linemen inMuhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams, each of which has a realistic chance to make the Pro Bowl.  The Jets have a solid pair of inside linebackers inErin Henderson and David Harris.  The Jets have an all time great cornerback in Darrelle Revis who is still one of the best in the game.

Then there are the areas of concern.  Let's take a look at where the Jets might have some worries going into the 2016 season.

Second Outside Cornerback

This could be a severe problem for the Jets in 2016.  Buster Skrine is slated to man the position when the Jets are only fielding two cornerbacks, but Skrine is very small and much better suited to the slot than the outside.  In defensive sets featuring three or more cornerbacks, which are expected to be the majority of snaps, Skrine will move inside and one of Marcus Williams, Justin Burris or newly acquired waiver pickup Darryl Roberts is expected to man the outside.  Williams had a nice year in 2015 as the dime cornerback, mostly covering the opponents' fourth best receivers.  Stepping up to the second outside corner position constitutes a big jump in the level of competition.  If the preseason is any indication, Williams may not hold up.  If Williams is not up to the task, the next man up is likely rookie Justin Burris, who also proved to be a concern in preseason.  Darryl Roberts, a promising but unproven acquisition at cornerback is the last option here.  The level of worry over the second outside cornerback position should be directly linked to the level of confidence Jets fans have that Revis is still capable of holding up on an island on the other side. If the Jets can successfully leave Revis alone every game then help can be consistently rolled to the other side of the field.  That should mitigate the concerns regarding an unproven and largely unimpressive list of candidates to fill the second cornerback void.  If, on the other hand, Revis needs help against his tougher matchups, the Jets could be in for a long and frustrating season watching the cornerbacks get burned.

Worry-Meter level, with 0 being free from all worry and 10 being defcon 5:  5, if Revis is still Revis.  If not, then 8.

 

Outside Linebacker

This position is manned by a bunch of young players, none of whom have any notable experience as three down players in the NFL.  One side will likely be held down by rookieJordan Jenkins.  While Jenkins is a promising rookie who reminds some of a young Calvin Pace, he is still a rookie, and should be expected to make typical rookie mistakes.  The other side was expected to be manned by second year player Lorenzo Mauldin, who shined in a limited role as a pass rush specialist in 2015.  However, the transition from part time specialist to full time outside linebacker has not been a smooth one for Mauldin, who struggled badly in the preseason.  Mauldin may have been surpassed on the depth chart by Mike Catapano, yet another young unproven player.  Rounding out the choices at outside linebacker is Josh Martin, who got some playing time as a backup outside linebacker with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2013 and 2014 and has a total of 26  tackles and half a sack on his resume.  Martin flashed some in preseason against backups, but is likely not a great option for a starting role.

The outside linebacker position has the potential to be a major problem.  There are simply no players with NFL starting experience, and no players who in the preseason looked up to the challenge against opponents' first team offenses.  This could be a sore spot all year if none of the young guys prove up to the challenge.  The apparent struggles of Mauldin in attempting to transition from specialist to full time player is especially concerning, as he was being counted on to provide what little veteran experience the Jets have at the position.  In the long run this group might prove to be good or even excellent. However, in the immediate time frame of the current NFL season the Jets are going to need a couple of these guys to grow up fast or the team will have a very exploitable weakness setting the edge this season.  Mitigating the concern somewhat is the apparent intention of the defense to play a variety of fronts featuring four defensive linemen.  Throw in obvious passing downs, when the Jets may bring in as many as six defensive backs, and it may be the case that for a majority of snaps only one of the outside linebackers is on the field.

Worry-Meter for the outside linebackers: 7

Offensive Line Right Side

Who ever thought Jets fans would be worried about Breno Giacomini being sidelined?  Perhaps there is  no reason to be concerned.  Perhaps one or the other of Ben Ijalana and/orBrent Qvale will step up and provide decent play at right tackle, Wally Pipping Breno.  Perhaps.  But as much as Jets fans would like to be rid of Breno, nothing in the play of Ijalana and Qvale in the preseason has given us much assurance he isn't, sadly, still the best option the team has at right tackle. Throw in Brian Winters at right guard and you have a major weakness on the right side of the line.  Perhaps this is the reason the Jets appear to put so much emphasis on blocking by the tight ends.  There appears to be little or no interest in a move tight end that may be shaky blocking.  Perhaps the plan is to shore up the right side of the offensive line with blocking specialists at tight end.  Regardless, the right side of the line is a concern.  If any of the big three of Mangold, Clady and Carpenter go down, the entire offensive line becomes a major concern.

 

Worry-Meter for the right side of the offensive line:  7.  If any of the big three go down, bump that up to 9 for the entire line.

Tight Ends

Ummm... what tight ends?  Does this team actually have any NFL caliber tight ends?  The Jets look to have the worst group of tight ends in the NFL.  While this is mitigated by the small role the tight ends play in the current offense, still as a group the worst in the NFL is something to worry about.

Worry-Meter: 6. Only saved from being a 10 because tight ends seem largely irrelevant to offensive coordinator Chan Gailey.

[Larz]

there are legit concerns with this roster, but I think bowles played the summer smart and didn't show anything.  I think this defense is going to shock people with how good it is and the WR corp is a ******* basketball team

[Jet Nut]

These type of by position exercises don't reflect a rosters strength because it just rates each unit as a vacuum.  The WRs are going to be better than the opponent by a wider margin than what we lose at TE for example.  

[32EBoozer]

4 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

These type of by position exercises don't reflect a rosters strength because it just rates each unit as a vacuum.  The WRs are going to be better than the opponent by a wider margin than what we lose at TE for example.  

However, inferior OL play effects the RB and WR position as well as putting our QB at risk.

Suspect CB play does not allow our DL the time to reach the opposing QB

I think the OP is not looking at it in a vacuum, but how these positional weaknesses can effect the teams overall performance. IMHO

[BigRy56]

There's not a whole lot to worry about heading into the season - the Jets do have a legitimate weakness at right tackle and tight end.. but I think that Chan's quick release offense will hide OL deficiencies and trotting out one of the best receiving corps in football will hide the lack of tight end (Enunwa may line up at tight end sometimes throughout the season).

[NYs Stepchild]

Agree with most here. Chan negates most weakness by tailoring his offense to our strengths. It's not that he doesn't use TEs, or that he runs quick plays, he does what we need to do to mask weakness, and maximising our strengths which is what he always has done.

Bowles is doing the same thing with the D line this year by running a hybrid one gap 4-3, or 4-2-5. 

When I read that Chan does not use TEs I automatically discount the rest of what a person says. The same way I do when I read about how we don't have a true NT, or that our MLB is to small for a 3-4. 

The biggest weakness on the team is RG. That is difficult to mask when your RG gets moved backwards into the passing lanes on every play. If we could any way get Jahri Evans in here I would be at his house with Woody's helicopter to jet him away for a week of courtship. 

[UpstateJetsGuru]

14 minutes ago, BigRy56 said:

There's not a whole lot to worry about heading into the season - the Jets do have a legitimate weakness at right tackle and tight end.. but I think that Chan's quick release offense will hide OL deficiencies and trotting out one of the best receiving corps in football will hide the lack of tight end (Enunwa may line up at tight end sometimes throughout the season).

Good points. Am I the only one that thinks Q looks taller than 6'2"? Anyway, if he capitalizes on mismatches like he flashed in the preseason, we could be in for a real treat on the offensive side of the ball this season. Lots of weapons at WR, Q, and backs that can catch the ball.

[Jet Nut]

32 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

However, inferior OL play effects the RB and WR position as well as putting our QB at risk.

Suspect CB play does not allow our DL the time to reach the opposing QB

I think the OP is not looking at it in a vacuum, but how these positional weaknesses can effect the teams overall performance. IMHO

All true, usually.  But again, overall performance is dependent on how you match up with opponents and if you have a weak defensive backfield it hurts if you're playing a passing team, not as much against a running team.  So it doesn't necessarily effect performance, depends on match ups.  

You have to also add in the makeup of the team.  Is it as big a deal to not have a dominant TE?  Not as much as if we had a different OC.  

[Savage69]

7 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

All true, usually.  But again, overall performance is dependent on how you match up with opponents and if you have a weak defensive backfield it hurts if you're playing a passing team, not as much against a running team.  So it doesn't necessarily effect performance, depends on match ups.  

You have to also add in the makeup of the team.  Is it as big a deal to not have a dominant TE?  Not as much as if we had a different OC.  

True look at Jimmy Graham with Bree's and the Saints O and him with the Hawks although I think he was hurt last year??

[ljr]

First thought is from the " team is in excellent shape category " I'd have the * next to Clady with (as long as he remains healthy) ... And I'd have a solid but not spectacular comment for Erin Henderson.

OLB concern 7 sounds fair ... Mostly cause the ILB's are sound & DL exceptional.

RG-RT concern I bump from 7 to 8 ... Giacomini potential loss though not that troubling yet ... Maybe I'd have left it at 7 if he was there & healthy.

TE position is $H*t ... Concern rating I drop from 6 to 4 though for the reasons of Chan working around it that they discuss.

 

[32EBoozer]

1 minute ago, Jet Nut said:

All true, usually.  But again, overall performance is dependent on how you match up with opponents and if you have a weak defensive backfield it hurts if you're playing a passing team, not as much against a running team.  So it doesn't necessarily effect performance, depends on match ups.  

Ok.... week 1 for instance.

TE doesn't worry me, Right side of the OL worries me with Atkins and Johnson playing over Winters and Ijialana/Qvale worries me.

You say Fitz quick release negates that but it all depends how long he has for plays to develop.

Boyd/ Lafell across from William/Burris causes me some worry as well.

We'll just strap up on Sunday and hope we get the W

"W" 

I think we will

 

[ljr]

25 minutes ago, UpstateJetsGuru said:

Good points. Am I the only one that thinks Q looks taller than 6'2"? Anyway, if he capitalizes on mismatches like he flashed in the preseason, we could be in for a real treat on the offensive side of the ball this season. Lots of weapons at WR, Q, and backs that can catch the ball.

That's cause Q is JACKED UP!!!

[Jet Nut]

2 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Ok.... week 1 for instance.

TE doesn't worry me, Right side of the OL worries me with Atkins and Johnson playing over Winters and Ijialana/Qvale worries me.

You say Fitz quick release negates that but it all depends how long he has for plays to develop.

Boyd/ Lafell across from William/Burris causes me some worry as well.

We'll just strap up on Sunday and hope we get the W

"W" 

I think we will

 

The flip side of this is without a reliance on the TE to be a receiver are we collecting TEs for their blocking abilities?  Basically another lineman to help our line out?  

So overall someone would grade out our TE unit poorly but when viewed as another lineman for a OC who isn't TE crazy are we? 

 

[jetstream23]

I don't think anyone would disagree that Cornerback, OLine and TE are probably the 3 biggest areas of concern.  I judge the Jets (and all teams) by their results and what shows up on the field.  I'll give them the benefit of the doubt until we see what's lining up in green for Week 1 and beyond.  Big Macc might be taking some calculated risks at certain positions.  Other GMs have done the same but it often comes back to bite you.

In 1999 the Jets learned a bad lesson about backup QBs with a Super Bowl-ready team after losing Vinny T.  In 2011, the Jets were undermanned on OLine starting guys like Wayne Hunter and it resulted in a down year.  Even 2014, was a painful lesson about WRs, especially when Eric Decker got hurt.  We were starting Stephen Hill and David Nelson some games, and even elevated Jeremy Kerley to the #1 WR for a few weeks.  It was crazy.

At TE we're not expecting much anyway and it's not a crucial position in Gailey's offensive scheme.  That must be the calculus here.  But why do the Jets still have 4 TEs AFTER cutting Amaro and Sudfeld?  It's a bit of a head scratcher to me unless I'm missing something.  (Yes, I know that two may be slated for the PS)

At CB we simply haven't seen guys elevate the way they were expected to.  Hard to fault the Jets for this IMO.  On paper, Marcus Williams should be better this year than last which would make him a viable CB2.  Guys like Milliner and McDougle were expected to be a decent CB4 and CB5, respectively.  Adding J. Burris was almost supposed to be a bonus, an opportunity to groom a young CB for a year or two while Revis is still here.  The reality is that everything after Revis is a crapshoot, especially if they want Skrine ideally to be the nickel/slot CB.  Going into Training Camp you'd have to think Big Macc and Bowles didn't expect CB to potentially be worse than last year.

On offensive line there are several things happening IMO.  Clady is a plug-in at LT and the Jets are banking on him staying injury-free.  Between Breno, Ijalana and Qvale I think the Jets were hoping to see the cream rise to the top and someone seize the job.  What we seem to have is an injured Giacomini and a dead-heat of average RT play between Ijalana and Qvale.  Even now we don't know which mediocre RT will be starting.  The interior was not improved and it's amazing to me how thin it is given all the investments over the years in mid-round guys like Dozier, Harrison, etc.  My real hope was to upgrade RG in the Draft, taking a guy like Cody Whitehair in the spot we took Hackenberg.  (Cody is starting for the Bears as a rookie)  I feel like the Jets are throwing resources (draft picks and some free agent $) at the OLine but it's still a patchwork that is one injury away from disaster.  Particularly with the types of defenses we play this season I wouldn't be surprised if this looks like 2011 all over again.  That year we had good WR's in Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes, a mediocre QB who needed lots of talent around him in Sanchez, and a patchwork offensive line.  The result was a mess on offense.  I hope I'm wrong.

[Shadetree]

I'm worried about OL and pass rush

We. Must. Rush. The. Passer..

im sick of not being elite on D. Cmon Bowles!!!

[Jetster]

25 minutes ago, Shadetree said:

I'm worried about OL and pass rush

We. Must. Rush. The. Passer..

im sick of not being elite on D. Cmon Bowles!!!

Win that 1st one at home & we'll have a fresh Sheldon to wreak havoc on the beat up Bills 4 days later. 

[Charlie Brown]

Me worried....

[Beerfish]

Our oline is a big worry and the secondary is a concern.  Oline is really treading on thin ice.

[UnknownJetFan]

Seems to be a lot of questioning at the Amaro/Sudfeld cuts and new TEs Bostic, Bowman, etc. The issue is what a TE does and how he helps the O. If he and say another is on the field and are only good a blocking then it makes it fairly obvious it is either a running play or if it ends up being a passing play there will be less threats out in patterns to catch. So, it is normally a running play in those cases and makes it easy for the D to know what's coming. If any TEs on the field are good at catching as well as blocking then it leaves the D guessing since it can be a pass or run. So, with the Jets taking on 3 new TEs currently they are trying to see if one or more can be equally a threat as a blocker and pass catcher thus allowing the plays I stated where the D cannot easily determine the play. Further proof of this is Bowles already said today that he will not be keeping 4 TEs for long on the roster. Translation: the ones that can catch and block equally are the ones staying and it is unlikely all 3 can. If we are lucky one of them out of the 3 can. If none are we may have to find more FAs to try. It also helps that Enunwa does play TE in different plays.

[jgb]

Herm and Rex arguably were guilt of the same offense: Criminal Neglect of the OLine. Next year we need to devote some resources to this problem.

[jdeacon]

Not worried, at least not yet. I save that until 10 minutes before kickoff and im usually a nervous wreck.

Reaslistly though, our O-line has to be a concern mainly for the running game and the rt situation. If we have another WFH situation this year I expect to see a lot of geno and then petty because Fitz and Geno will be dead by the end of the season.

[slats]

6 hours ago, jgb said:

Herm and Rex arguably were guilt of the same offense: Criminal Neglect of the OLine. Next year we need to devote some resources to this problem.

I like the idea of using mid/late picks on OL -like they've been doing- but the trick is actually developing them. If Clady pans out, he'll probably be resigned. They need one or two of the kids to step up on that right side. 

[faba]

I am a born worrier- will the offensive line improve can we run the ball so Fitz is not forced to pass- a recipe for disaster