Further Proof PFF Stats Are Worthless

[KRL]

Below is exactly why the stats PFF puts out are worthless.  If anyone watched the BUF game
who in their right mind would give any BUF defender a good grade???  See for yourself:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-nyj-buf-grades-ryan-fitzpatrick-leads-jets-to-shootout-win/

Top defensive grades:

ILB Zach Brown, 95.2

ILB Preston Brown, 92.6

OLB Jerry Hughes, 86.6

CB Nickell Robey-Coleman, 84.2

S Corey Graham, 82.1

Nightmare in secondary does defense in

While a few players in the secondary had days to forget, the defensive front seven performed very well and was particularly
stout against the run. Inside linebackers Zack Brown and Preston Brown had their way with the Jets’ interior offensive line,
and combined for 13 defensive stops, including 10 in run defense. While Jets RB Matt Forte did reach 100 yards rushing, it took
him 30 carries and 78 yards after contact to do so. The Bills’ pass rush was able to get pressure on Fitzpatrick, but were only
able to turn one into a sack that counted. Jerry Hughes’ only sack was nullified by a holding penalty in the secondary, but he
managed a game-high six additional hurries over the rest of the game. Although CB Ronald Darby did play better down the stretch
to break up three passes, he allowed six catches for 97 yards, and fellow cornerback Stephon Gilmore topped him with 129 yards
allowed on seven receptions. It was an uncharacteristically tough day for one of the better young corner tandems in the NFL.

[T0mShane]

Their continuing love affair with Ryan Tannehill is always good for a laugh. 

[TuscanyTile2]

8 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Their continuing love affair with Ryan Tannehill is always good for a laugh. 

Pretty sure the love affair is with Lauren Tannehill.

 

 

 

[glenn31]

19 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Pretty sure the love affair is with Lauren Tannehill.

 

 

 

I still have no idea what the big deal was with this chick. 

[ljr]

Must admit Hughes got some pressure a couple of times I was jealous of from the OLB spot

[ljr]

17 minutes ago, glenn31 said:

I still have no idea what the big deal was with this chick. 

She's got a knife!

all chicks with knives are cool!

[stoicsentry]

While Jets RB Matt Forte did reach 100 yards rushing, it took

him 30 carries and 78 yards after contact to do so.

 

Well done, linebackers.

[RutgersJetFan]

I particularly enjoy the threads where those who make no effort to ever track anything mathematically on their own chastise those who do.

[j4jets]

2 hours ago, KRL said:

Below is exactly why the stats PFF puts out are worthless.  If anyone watched the BUF game
who in their right mind would give any BUF defender a good grade???  See for yourself:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-nyj-buf-grades-ryan-fitzpatrick-leads-jets-to-shootout-win/

Top defensive grades:

ILB Zach Brown, 95.2

ILB Preston Brown, 92.6

OLB Jerry Hughes, 86.6

CB Nickell Robey-Coleman, 84.2

S Corey Graham, 82.1

Nightmare in secondary does defense in

While a few players in the secondary had days to forget, the defensive front seven performed very well and was particularly
stout against the run. Inside linebackers Zack Brown and Preston Brown had their way with the Jets’ interior offensive line,
and combined for 13 defensive stops, including 10 in run defense. While Jets RB Matt Forte did reach 100 yards rushing, it took
him 30 carries and 78 yards after contact to do so. The Bills’ pass rush was able to get pressure on Fitzpatrick, but were only
able to turn one into a sack that counted. Jerry Hughes’ only sack was nullified by a holding penalty in the secondary, but he
managed a game-high six additional hurries over the rest of the game. Although CB Ronald Darby did play better down the stretch
to break up three passes, he allowed six catches for 97 yards, and fellow cornerback Stephon Gilmore topped him with 129 yards
allowed on seven receptions. It was an uncharacteristically tough day for one of the better young corner tandems in the NFL.

I don't see why you're disagreeing with the grades here. Their LBs weren't all that bad. Our RB couldn't find open lanes to run outside of that one TD. He averaged 3.3. Even if he had run 60 times, 3.3 average is pretty good for the D. They weren't stellar but I don't see any DL getting high grades. Their outside corners gave up yards and their DL gave up short yardage n goal line TDs. Graded accordingly unless I'm missing something. 

You may find PFF a joke but it's a useful metric for guidelines. That's all it serves. It doesn't hand out Lombardi trophies. 

[Jetsbb]

Do they publish who actually does the rankings? A year or so ago guys like Manish started giving them credibility publishing their "rankings" yet with no citation on why we should believe their credibility other than the name has "profootball" in it. How did they gain credibility or was it just that they have a similar name to profootballtalk and profootball reference so people assumed they're part of that umbrella?

[Jet9]

Didn't they have Kyle Wilson ranked super high a few years ago?

[Adoni Beast]

I think Belicheck said it best about these grades. I remember seeing an interview with him where he basically said that its impossible for anyone other than your own team to know what a players specific assignment was on any given play. A guy makes a sack but he was supposed to drop in coverage, he might have just got lucky. A guy gets burned but was he supposed to have help, while he stayed in zone? Etc. The tape only tells half the story because you don't know what the coaches told him pre snap. 

Then in one article:

"With all due respect to those websites, I don't really know how some of that information is determined or evaluated," Belichick said. "I know that in the past, we've looked at those websites -- not any one in particular -- but just in general we've looked at those websites and said, 'OK, here's their top rated guy. Where are we?' Just to kind of gauge where we feel like the value of the websites are. If they're rating them the same as we are, then maybe that's something we need to keep a close eye on so we can start to track a lot of guys. If there's a big discrepancy, then is there really any value to that? I'd say a lot of that stuff is, in my opinion, not real accurate, so take it with a grain of salt."

https://www.google.com/amp/www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/bill-belichick-rips-analytics-websites-says-theyre-not-real-accurate/amp/

[Jetdawgg]

Clady struggled with Hughes. Not sure about the rest

[Villain The Foe]

8 hours ago, KRL said:

Below is exactly why the stats PFF puts out are worthless.  If anyone watched the BUF game
who in their right mind would give any BUF defender a good grade???  See for yourself:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-nyj-buf-grades-ryan-fitzpatrick-leads-jets-to-shootout-win/

Top defensive grades:

ILB Zach Brown, 95.2

ILB Preston Brown, 92.6

OLB Jerry Hughes, 86.6

CB Nickell Robey-Coleman, 84.2

S Corey Graham, 82.1

Nightmare in secondary does defense in

While a few players in the secondary had days to forget, the defensive front seven performed very well and was particularly
stout against the run. Inside linebackers Zack Brown and Preston Brown had their way with the Jets’ interior offensive line,
and combined for 13 defensive stops, including 10 in run defense. While Jets RB Matt Forte did reach 100 yards rushing, it took
him 30 carries and 78 yards after contact to do so. The Bills’ pass rush was able to get pressure on Fitzpatrick, but were only
able to turn one into a sack that counted. Jerry Hughes’ only sack was nullified by a holding penalty in the secondary, but he
managed a game-high six additional hurries over the rest of the game. Although CB Ronald Darby did play better down the stretch
to break up three passes, he allowed six catches for 97 yards, and fellow cornerback Stephon Gilmore topped him with 129 yards
allowed on seven receptions. It was an uncharacteristically tough day for one of the better young corner tandems in the NFL.

Not sure about those other names but Preston Brown had a good game. 

[CrazyCarl40]

Nobody uses these numbers as gospel, but they're at the very least a baseline of performance. I mean, NBC Football was using their player rankings as on screen graphics for the opening game. You don't do that if there is no basis of the numbers at all. That would be irresponsible. 

[Obrien2Toon]

I've honestly never paid attention to them ever since they told me Kyle Wilson was doing good

[drdetroit]

6 hours ago, Jet9 said:

Didn't they have Kyle Wilson ranked super high a few years ago?

PFF = pretty friggin futile 

[j4jets]

4 hours ago, Adoni Beast said:

I think Belicheck said it best about these grades. I remember seeing an interview with him where he basically said that its impossible for anyone other than your own team to know what a players specific assignment was on any given play. A guy makes a sack but he was supposed to drop in coverage, he might have just got lucky. A guy gets burned but was he supposed to have help, while he stayed in zone? Etc. The tape only tells half the story because you don't know what the coaches told him pre snap. 

Then in one article:

"With all due respect to those websites, I don't really know how some of that information is determined or evaluated," Belichick said. "I know that in the past, we've looked at those websites -- not any one in particular -- but just in general we've looked at those websites and said, 'OK, here's their top rated guy. Where are we?' Just to kind of gauge where we feel like the value of the websites are. If they're rating them the same as we are, then maybe that's something we need to keep a close eye on so we can start to track a lot of guys. If there's a big discrepancy, then is there really any value to that? I'd say a lot of that stuff is, in my opinion, not real accurate, so take it with a grain of salt."

https://www.google.com/amp/www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/bill-belichick-rips-analytics-websites-says-theyre-not-real-accurate/amp/

It's true that only your team and your coaches know how well you performed for the simole examples Belish*t gave. However, since your team and coaches don't publish any such opinion or ranking, people have to do their own research and guesstimates. By that same standard, Pro Bowl and All Pro selections are as flawed. I have zero issues with PFF taking a mathematical stance in rankings/grading. Are they ever wrong? Of course. Derek Andrrson made it to the Pro Bowl once. Are they ever right? I'm willing to bet they are mostly right than not. 

[Kevin L]

PFF lost me after giving Aaron Rodgers an average grade after a 5 TD performance.

WHY AARON RODGERS’ GRADE WAS JUST AVERAGE VERSUS CHIEFS

BEN STOCKWELL12 MONTHS AGO

  

---

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers ended last night’s game with a -0.8 grade overall. This isn’t a bad game, just because the number begins with a minus, but it is an average grade very close to zero for a player who threw five touchdown passes, which seems crazy on the face of it. It’s not.

On the surface, Rodgers’ raw statistics paint the picture of one of the best games of the season. 333 passing yards, five touchdown passes, no interceptions, a 138.5 passer rating; Rodgers’ should be supplanting Carson Palmer in our team of the week as the top quarterback, not earning a grade with a minus in front of it, right?

Well, not if you dig a little deeper into Rodgers’ performance on a play-by-play basis. Looking first at his touchdown passes offers a view on how raw stats inflate the perception of a solid performance. Two of his touchdown passes were good or very good throws. His first touchdown pass on a whip to Ty Montgomery was a good throw leading his receiver away from the coverage for the score, so it earned a positive grade. His third touchdown pass to James Jones was a good throw on a back-shoulder pass yet again taking advantage of a free play, so it earned a positive grade.

The other three touchdowns, however, were passes thrown short of the end zone on speed outs to Randall Cobb. Were they bad throws? No, they were expected throws with the credit going to Cobb for fighting through contact or defeating the coverage with speed to the edge. That makes these zero-graded throws: Three passes that have a massive effect on Rodgers’ statistical performance but do not increase his grade.

However, those touchdown passes aren’t the story of what takes Rodgers’ grade from a grade with a plus in front of it to a grade with a minus in front of it. The story of what takes Rodgers’ grade below zero are two plays that you aren’t likely to see mentioned anywhere else today, but are taken into account of in a play-by-play grading system.

1. Rodgers had a fumble, which displayed poor pocket management, with 8:39 remaining in the second quarter. That play earned a negative grade.

2. With 12:58 remaining in the third quarter, Rodgers forced a pass that Josh Mauga could and possibly should have been returned for six points for Kansas City. If Mauga makes this interception, it would have tacked an ugly interception onto Rodgers’ stat line. Instead, Rodgers maintained his interception-less streak at Lambeau field, but it is a negatively graded play regardless. These are poor plays on Rodgers’ part that bring his game grade down that won’t show up on any widely quoted statistical analysis of his performance.

Context is crucial with everything in football, and if you believe we are saying that Rodgers had a poor game last night because his grade has a minus in front of it, then let me set your mind at ease; I do not think Rodgers played a poor, subpar game last night and neither does anybody else at Pro Football Focus. Rodgers did his job last night, but his job was executing simple throws, putting the ball quickly in the hands of receivers like Randall Cobb in favorable matchups on short throws, and allowing others to do the heavy lifting.

But for a couple of poor plays, his overall grade would have matched the sort of grade that you would be expecting to see from him, but those poor plays, coupled with the relative ease of some of his scores mean his performance last night was far closer to average than it was to the fantastic performance the box score suggests. The context surrounding his grade is crucial.

The greatness of Rodgers’ performance last night was in the intangibles. Recognizing the blitz, drawing the defense offsides, catching the Chiefs in bad situations and exploiting those scenarios with simple passes to open receivers. But you cannot — and we do not try to — quantify intangibles, or what comes pre-snap. Our system grades what can be graded — the execution of the play post-snap — and in that regard Rodgers did not stand out in the same way that his statistics did

[JiFtheOracle]

[Long Island Leprechaun]

1 hour ago, Kevin L said:

PFF lost me after giving Aaron Rodgers an average grade after a 5 TD performance.

WHY AARON RODGERS’ GRADE WAS JUST AVERAGE VERSUS CHIEFS

BEN STOCKWELL12 MONTHS AGO

  

---

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers ended last night’s game with a -0.8 grade overall. This isn’t a bad game, just because the number begins with a minus, but it is an average grade very close to zero for a player who threw five touchdown passes, which seems crazy on the face of it. It’s not.

On the surface, Rodgers’ raw statistics paint the picture of one of the best games of the season. 333 passing yards, five touchdown passes, no interceptions, a 138.5 passer rating; Rodgers’ should be supplanting Carson Palmer in our team of the week as the top quarterback, not earning a grade with a minus in front of it, right?

Well, not if you dig a little deeper into Rodgers’ performance on a play-by-play basis. Looking first at his touchdown passes offers a view on how raw stats inflate the perception of a solid performance. Two of his touchdown passes were good or very good throws. His first touchdown pass on a whip to Ty Montgomery was a good throw leading his receiver away from the coverage for the score, so it earned a positive grade. His third touchdown pass to James Jones was a good throw on a back-shoulder pass yet again taking advantage of a free play, so it earned a positive grade.

The other three touchdowns, however, were passes thrown short of the end zone on speed outs to Randall Cobb. Were they bad throws? No, they were expected throws with the credit going to Cobb for fighting through contact or defeating the coverage with speed to the edge. That makes these zero-graded throws: Three passes that have a massive effect on Rodgers’ statistical performance but do not increase his grade.

However, those touchdown passes aren’t the story of what takes Rodgers’ grade from a grade with a plus in front of it to a grade with a minus in front of it. The story of what takes Rodgers’ grade below zero are two plays that you aren’t likely to see mentioned anywhere else today, but are taken into account of in a play-by-play grading system.

1. Rodgers had a fumble, which displayed poor pocket management, with 8:39 remaining in the second quarter. That play earned a negative grade.

2. With 12:58 remaining in the third quarter, Rodgers forced a pass that Josh Mauga could and possibly should have been returned for six points for Kansas City. If Mauga makes this interception, it would have tacked an ugly interception onto Rodgers’ stat line. Instead, Rodgers maintained his interception-less streak at Lambeau field, but it is a negatively graded play regardless. These are poor plays on Rodgers’ part that bring his game grade down that won’t show up on any widely quoted statistical analysis of his performance.

Context is crucial with everything in football, and if you believe we are saying that Rodgers had a poor game last night because his grade has a minus in front of it, then let me set your mind at ease; I do not think Rodgers played a poor, subpar game last night and neither does anybody else at Pro Football Focus. Rodgers did his job last night, but his job was executing simple throws, putting the ball quickly in the hands of receivers like Randall Cobb in favorable matchups on short throws, and allowing others to do the heavy lifting.

But for a couple of poor plays, his overall grade would have matched the sort of grade that you would be expecting to see from him, but those poor plays, coupled with the relative ease of some of his scores mean his performance last night was far closer to average than it was to the fantastic performance the box score suggests. The context surrounding his grade is crucial.

The greatness of Rodgers’ performance last night was in the intangibles. Recognizing the blitz, drawing the defense offsides, catching the Chiefs in bad situations and exploiting those scenarios with simple passes to open receivers. But you cannot — and we do not try to — quantify intangibles, or what comes pre-snap. Our system grades what can be graded — the execution of the play post-snap — and in that regard Rodgers did not stand out in the same way that his statistics did

So Rodgers gets negative rep for something that didn't happen (i.e., the interception for a pick-six by Mauga that was actually neither). Yeah, that makes sense. And he gets negative rep for completing a pass per the called play that results in a touchdown. Yeah, that makes sense. I would call that context bias.

[Kevin L]

10 minutes ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

So Rodgers gets negative rep for something that didn't happen (i.e., the interception for a pick-six by Mauga that was actually neither). Yeah, that makes sense. And he gets negative rep for completing a pass per the called play that results in a touchdown. Yeah, that makes sense. I would call that context bias.

It's totally ridiculous. Somehow a pass that wasn't intercepted almost completely negates 330 yards and 5 TDs.

[greenwichjetfan]

A few bad stats without understanding what the statistic is measuring or the limitations of such measurement, and all of a sudden an entire system, website, and idea which is fully integrated into the NFL by coaches, scouts, GMs, and the public (FF) is deemed "worthless" on a fan forum by someone who never bothered to track something on their own.

Context is can be a wonderful thing.

[ScarletKnight89]

I'm a big fan of PFF. But I understand why it has it's critics.

However I do remember hearing Preston Brown talked about a lot on Thursday Night by the announce team. I remember him playing well. Hughes not as much. But it's 5 defensive players when 11 are on the field. The Jets won because they torched the secondary, particularly Gillmore who was getting beat all night. Hughes, Zach Brown, and Preston Brown play in the front 7. And Forte, while scoring 3 TD's and grinding out tough hard earned yards all night, didn't have a great YPC average.

I believe their numbers aren't totally accurate but they are definitely a good baseline like a previous poster mentioned.

[Adoni Beast]

2 hours ago, j4jets said:

It's true that only your team and your coaches know how well you performed for the simole examples Belish*t gave. However, since your team and coaches don't publish any such opinion or ranking, people have to do their own research and guesstimates. By that same standard, Pro Bowl and All Pro selections are as flawed. I have zero issues with PFF taking a mathematical stance in rankings/grading. Are they ever wrong? Of course. Derek Andrrson made it to the Pro Bowl once. Are they ever right? I'm willing to bet they are mostly right than not. 

 

I get your point. The league grades for these pro bowls etc, but they are wrong a lot of time too. But they don't break it down numberically for each player each player. Pro bowl is committee is more like "ok we need x amount of QB's, who do we feel was the best this year. They're not analyzing and grading for those selections. Its just their opinion, whereas PFF tries to say its not an opinion, its a fact based off of algorithms. The whole PFF system I feel is flawed to the point of their opinion (not fact) being obsolete. 

Im actually against the pro bowl, any all star game, or indovidual mvp awards etc. In team sports a players ability is only afforded at the work of others, and vice versa. Its all intertwined, especially in football. 

This is sort of off topic, but I don't think any league should have mvps etc as they really are a product of the whole, not only the individual. Clearly, some players are elite and can do well in any team, but I find these awards a waste of time. They just become bargaining chips for agents when it becomes contract time. 

And it should NEVER be "Coach of the year" or "Assistant of the year." If you're going to have a coaching award, it should always be "Coaching Staff of the Year."

[j4jets]

1 hour ago, Adoni Beast said:

 

I get your point. The league grades for these pro bowls etc, but they are wrong a lot of time too. But they don't break it down numberically for each player each player. Pro bowl is committee is more like "ok we need x amount of QB's, who do we feel was the best this year. They're not analyzing and grading for those selections. Its just their opinion, whereas PFF tries to say its not an opinion, its a fact based off of algorithms. The whole PFF system I feel is flawed to the point of their opinion (not fact) being obsolete. 

Im actually against the pro bowl, any all star game, or indovidual mvp awards etc. In team sports a players ability is only afforded at the work of others, and vice versa. Its all intertwined, especially in football. 

This is sort of off topic, but I don't think any league should have mvps etc as they really are a product of the whole, not only the individual. Clearly, some players are elite and can do well in any team, but I find these awards a waste of time. They just become bargaining chips for agents when it becomes contract time. 

And it should NEVER be "Coach of the year" or "Assistant of the year." If you're going to have a coaching award, it should always be "Coaching Staff of the Year."

PFF is what it is. Its someone's way of breaking down each play and assigning a grade (from what I understand), and then use that grade and do a statistical analysis. I have no issues with that. I enjoy such analysis for the most part. But going by what you are suggesting, even a HC can't question a missed assignment by a defender. Why? Because he doesn't know what the defender was thinking. Maybe what the defender did was the most favorable outcome. There's no way to tell. To make a play work, you have to have every guy doing his job properly. If you have 10 guys doing their job properly, but one guy messes up, it can be devastating (sack, turnover, injury, TD for D etc). Thats why I don't have an issue if someone was trying to analyse the game on an individual basis. Even the most absolute stats don't tell the story. Tyrod Taylor threw for 297 yards, 3 TDs and one int with a completion percentage at 60%. Sign me up for those stats any day, but we all know Bills offense was utter garbage and their passing game, outside of 3-4 plays, was non-existent. Jets, on the other hand, had several huge passing plays. Fitz looked like Marino out there. He only had one TD, but that certainly didn't represent how he played. Im a Fitz-doubter, but I know for a fact Fitz was out of his mind last Thursday.