RoadFan's Josh Rosen scouting report

[RoadFan]

YouTube gamefilm watched;

2016; Stanford, Texas A&M

2017; USC, Stanford, Washington, Colorado, Texas A&M (35 point comeback)

MANY OF YOU HAVE ALREADY READ THIS IN ITS ORIGINAL FORM.  INPUT FROM OTHER POSTERS ENCOURAGED ME TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.  AFTER DOING SO, I CLEARLY MISSED SOME THINGS.  I APOLOGIZE FOR JUMPING THE GUN.  I AM ALREADY A LITTLE EMBARRASSED, PLEASE DON'T BEAT ME UP TOO BAD.  I WON'T MAKE THE SAME MISTAKE AGAIN AND WILL REVISE THIS WHEN MY THOUGHTS ARE FINALIZED.

 

He appears to be a really natural athlete. You know the type.  Plays golf twice a year and shoots 85.  Can learn to ice skate faster than everybody.

Rosen throws a very pretty ball and it looks effortless. Quick release,  tight spiral, catchable (almost no drops when the ball was on target), not a scrambler but plenty mobile, etc.

With a clean pocket Rosen can throw one impressive ball after another, right on the money, rythymical, disecting a college defense with what appears to be a tempting NFL skill set.  He even throws fairly well on the run.  I am sure there are NFL scouts that love what they see.

 

 

 

On a side note, University of Washington defensive lineman Vita Vea was everywhere in the UCLA game.  That guy looked like an NFL player.

 

 

 

 

[T0mShane]

Thank you for this. Disappointing to hear, though. I, too, like Jews.

[Greenseed4]

It’s about time someone said it!

Rosen is not the chosen one. Decent mechanics, and a nice ball. But inconsistent footwork & decision making, too heady, and far too much of an injury risk. 

The Texas A&M “comeback game” that fans are bukkaking was really just one flukey pass after another. It’s like naming Keenum to Diggs the best tandem to ever play in the post-season based off of that one pass. 

[maury77]

Rosen does struggle with pressure. Then again, so did Brady and Manning. 

[Untouchable]

What concerns me the most is that the kid is brittle as hell and built like a beanstalk.

He already has a surgically repaired right shoulder and suffered two concussions in 2017 alone.

If the Giants plan on taking him #2 overall, they better make it their top priority come March to fix that sh*tastic OL in a jiffy. Otherwise his career will be over before it even really starts.

[RoadFan]

1 hour ago, maury77 said:

Rosen does struggle with pressure. Then again, so did Brady and Manning. 

Seemingly, you missed my most important observation.

He doesn't just "struggle" with pressure, it consumes him. 

[Stark]

Who is the top QB @RoadFan?

just curious.. the qb you sell the farm for?

[RoadFan]

1 hour ago, Stark said:

Who is the top QB @RoadFan?

just curious.. the qb you sell the farm for?

I will let you know....  Rosen is my only eval thus far.

But if you get back to me soon... you are welcome to choose the next prospect I look at?

I might find the time in the next couple of days.

[peebag]

Sorry it's Rosen and Darnold then everyone else.

[NYJets8]

On 1/15/2018 at 7:39 PM, RoadFan said:

YouTube gamefilm watched;

2016; Stanford, Texas A&M

2017; USC, Stanford, Washington, Colorado, Texas A&M (35 point comeback)

 

JOSH ROSEN IS FOOL'S GOLD.

He appears to be a really natural athlete. You know the type.  Plays golf twice a year and shoots 85.  Can learn to ice skate faster than everybody.

Rosen throws a very pretty ball and it looks effortless. Quick release,  tight spiral, catchable (almost no drops when the ball was on target), not a scrambler but plenty mobile, etc.

With a clean pocket Rosen can throw one impressive ball after another, right on the money, rythymical, disecting a college defense with what appears to be a tempting NFL skill set.  He even throws fairly well on the run.  I am sure there are NFL scouts that love what they see.

On a personal note, I have a strong Jewish background.  It really pains me to say what I am about to, as I would really like to see a member of our tribe as a successful NFL QB. Jay Fielder was a nice player but there really hasn't been one since Sid Luckman, way before my time.  The problem is that Rosen has no balls.  Zero courage in the pocket.  All QBs' effectiveness decreases some when under pressure.  Rosen's doesn't just decrease, it goes to absolute sh*t.

Every time there is pressure from anywhere Rosen is; showing lousy footwork, backpedaling, panicking, throwing wildly inaccurate passes, flinging the ball recklessly into coverage, etc.  Scarcely saw a single play where Rosen delivered a strike knowing he was going to get whacked. 

If anyone has doubts about what I have seen, I encourage you to watch both games against Texas A&M, including the comeback game.   Early in the game, they are blitzing regularly and Rosen is awful.  During the comeback, they start rushing only 3 and 4 for most plays giving him the clean pocket he so desperately needs.  Nevertheless, you will notice a handful of plays where they do get pressure or blitz a guy and he makes poor throws and/or decisions. He got away with one because a ball slips right through both hands of a defensive back. 

On a side note, University of Washington defensive lineman Vita Vea was everywhere in the UCLA game.  That guy looked like an NFL player.

 

more 2018 QB draft class evals to come...

 

 

Nice eval..!  Check this out:

Courage in the pocket.

 

[Lith]

Just finished watching his USC and Colorado tapes from this season, and I am not seeing what you are.  When pressured, I see him keeping his eyes downfield, moving around in the pocket and trying to make throws.  Accuracy suffers when he throws on the move -- he is definitely better in the pocket, but I don't see a guy collapsing under pressure.  Colorado game may not have been the best to watch as they did not get much pressure, but I thought he made some nice throws against USC in the face of the pass rush.

I did not watch the A&M game tape - I do remember watching that game and thinking the comeback was more about bad defense than good offense.  The other thing I have noticed about Rosen is that I think he got better as the season wore on.  Which may have something to do with recovery from the shoulder injury last year.

I will take a look at some of his other tapes when I get a chance, but I like Rosen a lot.  As of now, I am a lot more concerned about the injury history than his ability to stand up to pressure.

[RoadFan]

44 minutes ago, Lith said:

Just finished watching his USC and Colorado tapes from this season, and I am not seeing what you are.  When pressured, I see him keeping his eyes downfield, moving around in the pocket and trying to make throws.  Accuracy suffers when he throws on the move -- he is definitely better in the pocket, but I don't see a guy collapsing under pressure.  Colorado game may not have been the best to watch as they did not get much pressure, but I thought he made some nice throws against USC in the face of the pass rush.

I did not watch the A&M game tape - I do remember watching that game and thinking the comeback was more about bad defense than good offense.  The other thing I have noticed about Rosen is that I think he got better as the season wore on.  Which may have something to do with recovery from the shoulder injury last year.

I will take a look at some of his other tapes when I get a chance, but I like Rosen a lot.  As of now, I am a lot more concerned about the injury history than his ability to stand up to pressure.

Different people see different things.  I am giving my opinion.  I certainly appreciate your input.

Your point about the shoulder injury is really important, something I hadn't considered.  

If it feels like I push my opinion as fact, that is just the way I am.   I believe only what my own I eyes tell me and that NFL scouts are not much better at projecting QB success than I am... and they have infinitely more access to the necessary  information.  Such as shoulder injuries...

[nyjbuddy]

32 minutes ago, RoadFan said:

Different people see different things.  I am giving my opinion.  I certainly appreciate your input.

Your point about the shoulder injury is really important, something I hadn't considered.  

If it feels like I push my opinion as fact, that is just the way I am.   I believe only what my own I eyes tell me and that NFL scouts are not much better at projecting QB success than I am... and they have infinitely more access to the necessary  information.  Such as shoulder injuries...

 

1 hour ago, Lith said:

Just finished watching his USC and Colorado tapes from this season, and I am not seeing what you are.  When pressured, I see him keeping his eyes downfield, moving around in the pocket and trying to make throws.  Accuracy suffers when he throws on the move -- he is definitely better in the pocket, but I don't see a guy collapsing under pressure.  Colorado game may not have been the best to watch as they did not get much pressure, but I thought he made some nice throws against USC in the face of the pass rush.

I did not watch the A&M game tape - I do remember watching that game and thinking the comeback was more about bad defense than good offense.  The other thing I have noticed about Rosen is that I think he got better as the season wore on.  Which may have something to do with recovery from the shoulder injury last year.

I will take a look at some of his other tapes when I get a chance, but I like Rosen a lot.  As of now, I am a lot more concerned about the injury history than his ability to stand up to pressure.

I agree with both of you.  Depending on the game you watch Rosen showed differently under pressure.  That Texas A&M game was really night and day when watching the first half vs second half for A&M's defense.  I remember watching Rosen throwing his helmet on the sideline in frustration during the first half and thinking this guy has lost it.  The second half really help him regain his confidence and I think that carried on through out the season.  He kept getting better and better as the season went on.  He did struggle under pressure a few times (including that UW game) but the second half of the season was a vast improvement for him (as well as for his offensive line).

Statistically he did very well under pressure.  I posted this in another topic but here were his number under pressure:

He was pressured 30.7% of the time.  During 126 under pressure dropbacks he threw for 700 yards, 3TDs, 2 int, completed 67.1% of his passes and had a 15.1% sack rate.

[Lith]

40 minutes ago, RoadFan said:

Different people see different things.  I am giving my opinion.  I certainly appreciate your input.

Your point about the shoulder injury is really important, something I hadn't considered.  

If it feels like I push my opinion as fact, that is just the way I am.   I believe only what my own I eyes tell me and that NFL scouts are not much better at projecting QB success than I am... and they have infinitely more access to the necessary  information.  Such as shoulder injuries...

Agreed.  I appreciate the original analysis you did and the time you spend studying Rosen.  Just sharing an alternate view.  Look forward to seeing some of your evals of other prospects.

And as to your comments about his heritage, I too am of the tribe.  As to Fiedler, he is also the only NFL player who graduated from my High School -- Oceanside High on Long Island.  And, to take it a step further, I am pretty sure he is the only NFL player to have been Bar Mitvah'd by my Rabbi.  I did not know him, I am bout 10 years older than he is, but we were part of the same congregation.  I was excited when he joined the Jets, then the kid throws about 12 passes for us, hurts his shoulder and never played again.

[Stark]

On 1/16/2018 at 2:32 PM, RoadFan said:

I will let you know....  Rosen is my only eval thus far.

But if you get back to me soon... you are welcome to choose the next prospect I look at?

I might find the time in the next couple of days.

I appreciate your opinion but l disagree on Rosen. 

[Paradis]

I don't really agree with any of this. I can't put my finger on it, but it feels like you decided how you felt before you even poured the glass of milk.

I recommend reading Gladwell's BLINK book, because i think you're missing the whole thin slicing argument. When you watch Rosen, you just know.

I see everything working in his favor. Is there some residual shell shock from playing behind a swivel Oline... maybe. That might be a conversation worth having. Is there permanent damage to his shoulder? Again, worth exploring. But I'm not worried about his ability to be an NFL QB, not for a second. Name me any QB in the NFL who throws 45 times a week and doesn't get injured. They don't exist. 

[Stark]

31 minutes ago, Paradis said:

I don't really agree with any of this. I can't put my finger on it, but it feels like you decided how you felt before you even poured the glass of milk.

I recommend reading Gladwell's BLINK book, because i think you're missing the whole thin slicing argument. When you watch Rosen, you just know.

I see everything working in his favor. Is there some residual shell shock from playing behind a swivel Oline... maybe. That might be a conversation worth having. Is there permanent damage to his shoulder? Again, worth exploring. But I'm not worried about his ability to be an NFL QB, not for a second. Name me any QB in the NFL who throws 45 times a week and doesn't get injured. They don't exist. 

Agree. Also keeping in mind UCLA had no defense and Rosen had to carry that entire team. Does he make some throws that prob get picked at next level, yes. But he doesn’t play scared from what I see. 

[RoadFan]

18 hours ago, Lith said:

Just finished watching his USC and Colorado tapes from this season, and I am not seeing what you are.  When pressured, I see him keeping his eyes downfield, moving around in the pocket and trying to make throws.  Accuracy suffers when he throws on the move -- he is definitely better in the pocket, but I don't see a guy collapsing under pressure.  Colorado game may not have been the best to watch as they did not get much pressure, but I thought he made some nice throws against USC in the face of the pass rush.

I did not watch the A&M game tape - I do remember watching that game and thinking the comeback was more about bad defense than good offense.  The other thing I have noticed about Rosen is that I think he got better as the season wore on.  Which may have something to do with recovery from the shoulder injury last year.

I will take a look at some of his other tapes when I get a chance, but I like Rosen a lot.  As of now, I am a lot more concerned about the injury history than his ability to stand up to pressure.

 

13 hours ago, Stark said:

I appreciate your opinion but l disagree on Rosen. 

 

13 hours ago, Paradis said:

I don't really agree with any of this. I can't put my finger on it, but it feels like you decided how you felt before you even poured the glass of milk.

I recommend reading Gladwell's BLINK book, because i think you're missing the whole thin slicing argument. When you watch Rosen, you just know.

I see everything working in his favor. Is there some residual shell shock from playing behind a swivel Oline... maybe. That might be a conversation worth having. Is there permanent damage to his shoulder? Again, worth exploring. But I'm not worried about his ability to be an NFL QB, not for a second. Name me any QB in the NFL who throws 45 times a week and doesn't get injured. They don't exist. 

I have taken everything the three of you have said under advisement, as well as watched some snippets of Darnold, and I feel I did jump the gun.

Paradis, your analogy with the milk may have been right on the money. Actually, it is.  Honestly, I am embarrassed.  To put in time and effort, and then put myself out there... and fall victim to a first impression and then just stick with it. 

Just a little bit of film on Darnold and his slow delivery gave me some perspective.   Longer throws for him look labored. Then I went back and watched Rosen games again... and I missed several times where he delivered the ball and did take a big hit.  As of this moment, still extremely premature, I like what I see from Rosen better than Darnold.

 I didn't look at the other guys yet for perspective.  I didn't go back and rewatch.   I didn't take chronological order into consideration for possible improvement.  Etc.

I want to continue this, but my ego is somewhat damaged.

[cant wait]

On 1/16/2018 at 8:20 AM, maury77 said:

Rosen does struggle with pressure. Then again, so did Brady and Manning. 

PFF actually ranked him the #1 prospect facing pressure (which he saw a lot of this past year)

[Lith]

30 minutes ago, RoadFan said:

 

 

I have taken everything the three of you have said under advisement, as well as watched some snippets of Darnold, and I feel I did jump the gun.

Paradis, your analogy with the milk may have been right on the money. Actually, it is.  Honestly, I am embarrassed.  To put in time and effort, and then put myself out there... and fall victim to a first impression and then just stick with it. 

Just a little bit of film on Darnold and his slow delivery gave me some perspective.   He looks like he has to strain on  - agsany throw more than 15 yards.  I went back and watched Rosen games again... and I missed several times where he delivered the ball and took a shot.  As of this moment, still premature, I like Rosen better than Darnold.

 I didn't look at the other guys yet for perspective.  I didn't go back and rewatch.   I didn't take chronological order into consideration for possible improvement.  Etc.

I want to continue this, but my ego is somewhat damaged.

No worries.  This happens sometimes when you put yourself out there.  This should be a place to share opinions on prospects - agree, disagree, change your mind on a prospect, it is all good. 

[RoadFan]

8 minutes ago, cant wait said:

PFF actually ranked him the #1 prospect facing pressure (which he saw a lot of this past year)

I just finished rewatching everything... and have begun forming an entirely different opinion.  Not that I am a big fan of PFF, but I made an egregious error of sticking with a first impression.  Really egregious.

[maury77]

9 hours ago, cant wait said:

PFF actually ranked him the #1 prospect facing pressure (which he saw a lot of this past year)

That's interesting, I didn't realize that (although Mayfield seems to be rated higher on the chart you showed). 

[maury77]

This is a really good thread and, for the most part, I think everyone is right. Rosen did previously struggle with pressure, but he may have indeed gotten better because .... players sometimes improve. 

This is his video last year against TAM

You can see him retreat backwards at times with pressure in his face. But he certainly has improved this year in that facet. 

[Stark]

16 hours ago, RoadFan said:

 

 

I have taken everything the three of you have said under advisement, as well as watched some snippets of Darnold, and I feel I did jump the gun.

Paradis, your analogy with the milk may have been right on the money. Actually, it is.  Honestly, I am embarrassed.  To put in time and effort, and then put myself out there... and fall victim to a first impression and then just stick with it. 

Just a little bit of film on Darnold and his slow delivery gave me some perspective.   Longer throws for him look labored. Then I went back and watched Rosen games again... and I missed several times where he delivered the ball and did take a big hit.  As of this moment, still extremely premature, I like what I see from Rosen better than Darnold.

 I didn't look at the other guys yet for perspective.  I didn't go back and rewatch.   I didn't take chronological order into consideration for possible improvement.  Etc.

I want to continue this, but my ego is somewhat damaged.

It’s okay. Keep doing more prospects. No shame in posting your opinions. 

[Paradis]

17 hours ago, RoadFan said:

 

 

I have taken everything the three of you have said under advisement, as well as watched some snippets of Darnold, and I feel I did jump the gun.

Paradis, your analogy with the milk may have been right on the money. Actually, it is.  Honestly, I am embarrassed.  To put in time and effort, and then put myself out there... and fall victim to a first impression and then just stick with it. 

Just a little bit of film on Darnold and his slow delivery gave me some perspective.   Longer throws for him look labored. Then I went back and watched Rosen games again... and I missed several times where he delivered the ball and did take a big hit.  As of this moment, still extremely premature, I like what I see from Rosen better than Darnold.

 I didn't look at the other guys yet for perspective.  I didn't go back and rewatch.   I didn't take chronological order into consideration for possible improvement.  Etc.

I want to continue this, but my ego is somewhat damaged.

It's good to challenge the popular opinion on players though. Sometimes it takes one person say - hey, what about this? and suddenly you're like yea, that is kind of funky... then ruminating begins. 

[cant wait]

13 hours ago, maury77 said:

That's interesting, I didn't realize that (although Mayfield seems to be rated higher on the chart you showed). 

that's true- mayfield clearly stands out here, I'm looking forward to seeing him in the senior bowl. that OU offense was so explosive it will be interesting to see what he can do

[Philc1]

Rosen = Carson Palmer

 

i have a hard time seeing him being bad in the pros when he will have OBJ and Evan Engram to throw to next 5-8 years

[Philc1]

On 1/18/2018 at 8:12 PM, cant wait said:

that's true- mayfield clearly stands out here, I'm looking forward to seeing him in the senior bowl. that OU offense was so explosive it will be interesting to see what he can do

Rudolph > Mayfield 

[Patriot Killa]

On 1/17/2018 at 8:41 PM, RoadFan said:

I just finished rewatching everything... and have begun forming an entirely different opinion.  Not that I am a big fan of PFF, but I made an egregious error of sticking with a first impression.  Really egregious.

Hy at least you have the gut to admit when you may have made a mistake. Good call. Very informative thread with some really intelligent perspectives from you guys. Good looks here. Rosen to me can be Matt Ryan or even slightly better. 

[Patriot Killa]

33 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Rosen = Carson Palmer

 

i have a hard time seeing him being bad in the pros when he will have OBJ and Evan Engram to throw to next 5-8 years

Carson Palmer? I don’t see that comparison at all.

Matt Ryan.