PFF: Tape, Numbers say Mayfield should be #1 Pick

[The Crusher]

2 hours ago, JiF said:

There is absolutely nothing special about Baker Mayfield.  Nothing.  Average measurable, average athlete, average arm.  He's super accurate throwing to wide open receivers.  The only thing "special" about him is that he's a fierce competitor. 

All these other guys at least something special that wows you or that you can focus on and be excited about:

Rosen - size, polish and arm strength.

Allen - size, athleticism and arm strength

Darnold - size, arm and a flare for the dramatics in the big moments

Jackson - size, arm, athleticism, speed, rare combination

Rudolph - size, arm, polish

If you draft Baker Mayfield, it better be the perfect system, with an outstanding OL and weapons galore because he is not the type of player to elevate an average offense with his skillz.  All those other dudes, at least have that in them. Whether they can do it or not at the next level is yet to be determined but at least there is something there to get you excited outside of competitive spirit. 

I was told once he “ throws recievers  open.” Not sure how true it is only watched him play few times and I close my eyes when I chew. Yet, sure sounds like a useful NFL QB life skill. 

[Beerfish]

13 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said:

They aren’t going to pick him. He doesn’t fit Bowles’ concept of a corner

I would not put anything past the jets and bowles. 

[JoJoTownsell1]

48 minutes ago, jgb said:

The fact that everyone rushes to the same exception proves how rare Brees is indeed.

Name me the last QB who is coming off his 3rd straight year of 4000+ yards to become a free agent at the age of 29? Yeah, Brees was rare, so  is Cousins. 

 

[bla bla bla]

34 minutes ago, RESNewYork said:

When I look at this I see yet another reason the Jets should be drafting Lamar Jackson. A QB who can still score the ball with a limited cast and pass protection. Jackson is a playmaker at the most important position. 

I guess my concern with Jackson in regards to this chart is "Is that his line or is it his play-style that leads to more pressures?" and "if it's the latter will he continue to see pressure because of how he plays?"

Generally in the NFL "pressures" lead to QB hits and sacks, my question with Jackson has been his ability to take the hits that his play generates. I'm just concerned if he'll shorten his career over the long haul.

[jgb]

6 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Name me the last QB who is coming off his 3rd straight year of 4000+ yards to become a free agent at the age of 29? Yeah, Brees was rare, so  is Cousins. 

 

Name me the last QB born on a Tuesday with a pinkie toe longer than the ring toe who is a Taurus enjoys his favorite food of nachos and who became a free agent before the 40th full moon of his professional career.

[bla bla bla]

56 minutes ago, jgb said:

The fact that everyone rushes to the same exception proves how rare Brees is indeed.

I think "how rare the situation is" is more appropriate. Yes Brees is a all time great but anyone who watches the NFL knows that Cousins caliber of QB never hits the open market and the only two in the same stratosphere are Brees and Manning but both were because of injury + young QB. It's not like Kirk is a Flynn, Glennon, McCown, or Cassel. I don't think there is anyone to compare this situation to other than Brees and Manning and even then those have a different type of asterisk.

[Philc1]

He’s not going to be good

[HessStation]

57 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

What he really seems to love are outdated prototypes. Tough to see this group taking Mayfield at all, let alone at 6.

Yeah, can't see these goobs taking either Mayfield or Jackson tbh.

[jgb]

Just now, bla bla bla said:

I think "how rare the situation is" is more appropriate. Yes Brees is a all time great but anyone who watches the NFL knows that Cousins caliber of QB never hits the open market and the only two in the same stratosphere are Brees and Manning but both were because of injury + young QB. It's not like Kirk is a Flynn, Glennon, McCown, or Cassel. I don't think there is anyone to compare this situation to other than Brees and Manning and even then those have a different type of asterisk.

And my point is the sample size is way too small to place any confidence in 1:1 direct comparisons. That said, I like cousins obviously and hope he becomes a Jet. But I'm a data-driven guy. Just my nature I guess.

[RESNewYork]

8 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

I guess my concern with Jackson in regards to this chart is "Is that his line or is it his play-style that leads to more pressures?" and "if it's the latter will he continue to see pressure because of how he plays?"

Generally in the NFL "pressures" lead to QB hits and sacks, my question with Jackson has been his ability to take the hits that his play generates. I'm just concerned if he'll shorten his career over the long haul.

No expert, don't follow college ball, but did this past season because the Jets were destined to pick high.

Jackson's line was a sieve. You can see it from his highlight videos as well. It's still early, all the hype is going to be on Mayfield and Allen because of the senior bowl. Once combine and pro days happen, we'll see the hype rise for the other prospects. Just read this from Matt Miller basically stating, the more you watch, the more there is to like.

 

[HessStation]

Just now, Philc1 said:

He’s not going to be good

As a Jets fan, my excitement usually only tends to last during the offseason. Right now I'm not that excited. Cousins would make me a little bit I guess. But all that money tied up. Ok, maybe, yeah it's cool. Mayfield would at least be super fun until September. 

[JoJoTownsell1]

6 minutes ago, jgb said:

Name me the last QB born on a Tuesday with a pinkie toe longer than the ring toe who is a Taurus enjoys his favorite food of nachos and who became a free agent before the 40th full moon of his professional career.

Right, because throwing for 4000 yards 3 straight years is some obscure stat.  

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Right, because throwing for 4000 yards 3 straight years is some obscure stat.  

Just playing with you. If you reduce anything to the molecular level, everything is unique. Even "identical" twins. The point is in the rare world of FA franchise QBs, there just aren't enough data points to really predicate success on the statistics of those who came before. You gotta just take each guy on his own.

[JoJoTownsell1]

Just now, RESNewYork said:

No expert, don't follow college ball, but did this past season because the Jets were destined to pick high.

Jackson's line was a sieve. You can see it from his highlight videos as well. It's still early, all the hype is going to be on Mayfield and Allen because of the senior bowl. Once combine and pro days happen, we'll see the hype rise for the other prospects. Just read this from Matt Miller basically stating, the more you watch, the more there is to like.

 

Lamar Jackson is s freak. He is one of the greatest playmakers to ever come out of college. He can probably start day 1 and win games until he gets crushed by NFL defenders that are bigger, stronger and faster than the guys he was dancing around in college. 

If I am drafting a fantasy team next year, Jackson would be taken ahead of MAyfield/Allen/Rosen/Darnold. If I am building a real NFL team, he isn't on my radar. 

[Philc1]

1 minute ago, HessStation said:

As a Jets fan, my excitement usually only tends to last during the offseason. Right now I'm not that excited. Cousins would make me a little bit I guess. But all that money tied up. Ok, maybe, yeah it's cool. Mayfield would at least be super fun until September. 

Superfun until Mayfield plays in actual games and gets exposed here

[nycdan]

2 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Right, because throwing for 4000 yards 3 straight years is some obscure stat.  

It's pretty obscure on the Jets.

[HessStation]

2 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Superfun until Mayfield plays in actual games and gets exposed here

Superfun is what the offseasons for dude. 

[Philc1]

41 minutes ago, RESNewYork said:

No expert, don't follow college ball, but did this past season because the Jets were destined to pick high.

Jackson's line was a sieve. You can see it from his highlight videos as well. It's still early, all the hype is going to be on Mayfield and Allen because of the senior bowl. Once combine and pro days happen, we'll see the hype rise for the other prospects. Just read this from Matt Miller basically stating, the more you watch, the more there is to like.

 

Not only did Jackson’s line suck his cs called way too many qb draws trying to take advantage of his mobility 

[JoJoTownsell1]

Just now, jgb said:

Just playing with you. If you define anything to the molecular level, anyone is unique. The point is in the rare world of FA franchise QBs, there just aren't enough data points to really predicate success on statistics of those who came before. You gotta just take each guy on his own.

Agreed. I just don't remember the last QB with anything close to Cousins resume/age to come on the market. And it's not like the Skins didn't like Cousins, they just finished paying him 40plus million dollars over the last 2 years and had to settle for Alex Smith. Instead of questioning Cousins, people on this board should be questioning Bruce Allen

[jgb]

Just now, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Agreed. I just don't remember the last QB with anything close to Cousins resume/age to come on the market. And it's not like the Skins didn't like Cousins, they just finished paying him 40plus million dollars over the last 2 years and had to settle for Alex Smith. Instead of questioning Cousins, people on this board should be questioning Bruce Allen

I hear you. Picking at 6 Macc doesn't really have the choice but to try for Cousins. If he had 1 or 2 he could feel confident in getting a guy in the draft. My gut tells me we won't be the top bidder but who knows let's see.

[bla bla bla]

12 minutes ago, jgb said:

And my point is the sample size is way too small to place any confidence in 1:1 direct comparisons. That said, I like cousins obviously and hope he becomes a Jet. But I'm a data-driven guy. Just my nature I guess.

I don't know, I see 3 years and Cousins stats and think that is far more than most players who hit FA and the numbers look very good. I think this is equally as rare as Manning or Brees hitting FA.

[jgb]

Just now, bla bla bla said:

I don't know, I see 3 years and Cousins stats and think that is far more than most players who hit FA and the numbers look very good. I think this is equally as rare as Manning or Brees hitting FA.

That's what I'm saying. Rare = statistics lack sufficient confidence intervals to be instructive. We are agreeing like an old married couple

[BCJet]

8 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Agreed. I just don't remember the last QB with anything close to Cousins resume/age to come on the market. And it's not like the Skins didn't like Cousins, they just finished paying him 40plus million dollars over the last 2 years and had to settle for Alex Smith. Instead of questioning Cousins, people on this board should be questioning Bruce Allen

Its because the last time it happened was Brees, and even he had a much bigger issue attached to his name with his shoulder then cousins does with no question marks

Look, the most apt comparison for Cousins is Matt Ryan - a QB who can be very successful in the right system with the right players, but who on their own is limited in how much they can elevate their team on their own.

If it was announced today that we traded #6 for Ryan and gave him a $25/year extension, people would be thrilled, yet we are looking at getting the exact same player, without giving up any draft capital - its insane.

Whether its minnesota, denver or here, cousins isnt going to start hitting 40 yard darts on the run like rogers. But put him on this team, with Ryan Jensen at Center, Quentin Nelson at LG, and any RB in the first 4 picks to go along with Powell and McGuire and we will immediately be in playoff contention.

[bla bla bla]

13 minutes ago, RESNewYork said:

No expert, don't follow college ball, but did this past season because the Jets were destined to pick high.

Jackson's line was a sieve. You can see it from his highlight videos as well. It's still early, all the hype is going to be on Mayfield and Allen because of the senior bowl. Once combine and pro days happen, we'll see the hype rise for the other prospects. Just read this from Matt Miller basically stating, the more you watch, the more there is to like.

 

Yea I completely agree, his play is incredible to watch and absolutely believe he will have the best rookie season if he plays. My issue with him is that I'm not sure his body will withstand the hits his play style will cause.

[Philc1]

5 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

I don't know, I see 3 years and Cousins stats and think that is far more than most players who hit FA and the numbers look very good. I think this is equally as rare as Manning or Brees hitting FA.

Cousins is nowhere near as good as Manning or Brees.  However, he is slightly better than Andy Dalton and way better than the Shorty Mayfield sh-tshow

[slats]

3 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

Exactly my thought especially if Denver lands Cousins. I think the Colts will want to stay in the top 10 as opposed to falling all the way back to 20 and 21.

Also, if Denver lands Cousins, they will be the Bills' prime target with the #20 & 21, and the extra picks will be very attractive to the cash-strapped Broncos. The Bills would love to slip ahead of the Jets to pick a QB; the Jets need to be proactive here. 

[Augustiniak]

4 minutes ago, slats said:

Also, if Denver lands Cousins, they will be the Bills' prime target with the #20 & 21, and the extra picks will be very attractive to the cash-strapped Broncos. The Bills would love to slip ahead of the Jets to pick a QB; the Jets need to be proactive here. 

great point.  and all it really tells you is, mccagnan has to go balls out to get his man, regardless of who it is.  if it's cousins, go and get him.  if he wants mayfield way more than allen and darnold/rosen are gone 1/2, then use your draft capital and go get him.  it would be bad enough for the team's fortunes if cousins goes elsewhere and the jets get shut out of qbs, but having the bills trade up to 5 to snag the guy mccagnan had already written on his card would be all the worse.  

tannenbaum made a good number of mistakes here, but one thing he really tried to do was build an offense.  granted he didn't go about it the right way, but he brought in farve, traded up for sanchez and brought in braylon, thomas jones, faneca i believe, could be wrong.  mccagnan seems to think he can 'beat the system' by drafting his favorite player in round 1, and then finding qbs in later rounds who are just as good as the qbs taken several rounds earlier.  

[Beerfish]

"If drafted into he right system" = Drop the guy two rounds in my opinion.

[RESNewYork]

46 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Lamar Jackson is s freak. He is one of the greatest playmakers to ever come out of college. He can probably start day 1 and win games until he gets crushed by NFL defenders that are bigger, stronger and faster than the guys he was dancing around in college. 

If I am drafting a fantasy team next year, Jackson would be taken ahead of MAyfield/Allen/Rosen/Darnold. If I am building a real NFL team, he isn't on my radar. 

I get this line of thinking. Very recent history has the DeShawn Watson injury. But isn't injury predictions just impossible? I can understand looking at the history of injuries when it comes to players. Someone like Watson had a history. But with all the running, and the poor Oline play that jackson did and had in college, you see zero injury history. And more so than ever, the NFL protects the qb position above all else. If any team sees the talent and loves the potential, is it a valid argument not to draft jackson because of fear of injury?

[rangerous]

nice write up on mayfield.  the things that strike me are that his year over year averages increased or at least stayed flat from a fairly high level.  a heisman trophy is always nice for a player to have.  his downside, besides he comes from a chuck and duck system, is he looks musclebound.  i'm not saying it's a bad thing but qb's need a different workout regimen than a line backer.  mayfield looks like he has some serious muscles. 

[The Crusher]

21 minutes ago, rangerous said:

nice write up on mayfield.  the things that strike me are that his year over year averages increased or at least stayed flat from a fairly high level.  a heisman trophy is always nice for a player to have.  his downside, besides he comes from a chuck and duck system, is he looks musclebound.  i'm not saying it's a bad thing but qb's need a different workout regimen than a line backer.  mayfield looks like he has some serious muscles. 

Muscles? Hmmm. Obviously he isn’t emaciated like Brady but he isn’t exactly Tebow either. To me looks pretty average for an athletic person. Hardly muscles bound. 

[JoJoTownsell1]

34 minutes ago, RESNewYork said:

I get this line of thinking. Very recent history has the DeShawn Watson injury. But isn't injury predictions just impossible? I can understand looking at the history of injuries when it comes to players. Someone like Watson had a history. But with all the running, and the poor Oline play that jackson did and had in college, you see zero injury history. And more so than ever, the NFL protects the qb position above all else. If any team sees the talent and loves the potential, is it a valid argument not to draft jackson because of fear of injury?

Watson is a pocket QB that can run. Jackson is a runner that can pass. The risk of injury is always greater for running QBs, especially now that every blow to the head can lead to concussion protocols etc. 

[Lupz27]

4 hours ago, sourceworx said:

Imagine Mayfield as a Jet playing the Pats in Foxboro, grabbing his crotch and yelling "f*ck you" at Brady, and then planting a Jets flag in middle of the field after leading us to victory.

He'd be a god around here.

Now imagine the reality of Mayfield throwing pick 6 after pick 6 in foxboro.

[JustInFudge]

2 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

per PFF:

Passing Under Pressure (QB)

A telling set of stats when considering a quarterback’s composure, we’ve assembled tables of data to show how often they find themselves under duress and how they operate in those situations. Who throws it away and who takes the sack? Whose pressured passes have been picked of most frequently and whose have usually found an open receiver? Every pressured drop-back is counted here.

 

What does the 25% represent? Does this mean Mayfield saw pressure 25% of his drop backs?  If that's the case, I question it's accuracy or what they're defining as "pressure"...I watched a ton of Mayfield this year unfortunately and he maybe saw actual pressure once or twice a game. 

[Lupz27]

1 hour ago, bla bla bla said:

I guess my concern with Jackson in regards to this chart is "Is that his line or is it his play-style that leads to more pressures?" and "if it's the latter will he continue to see pressure because of how he plays?"

Generally in the NFL "pressures" lead to QB hits and sacks, my question with Jackson has been his ability to take the hits that his play generates. I'm just concerned if he'll shorten his career over the long haul.

Seriously do you watch the games?  90% of Mayfield’s so called “pressures throws” are because he held the ball for 10 seconds running around waiting to make a big play while nobody was near him because he had the best Oline in college football, and then finally after his stupid scrambling when a defender finally got near him he would throw the ball to the guy who finally shook free that he was starring at, and that goes into the pressured column very stupid evaluation for college QB’s who run the type of offense Mayfield ran, AND had such great talent at OL, AND everywhere else on offense.