Following the Money - Position Importance

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, genot said:

Bosa scares me. Gets hurt alot. Like his brother

If it came down to Josh Allen, Clelin Ferrell, or other EDGE rusher, who do you take?

[UntouchableCrew]

9 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 Yet you still have posters on this board saying "NEVER!!!" to the idea of drafting defense in the 1st again.  As if safeties, tiny linebackers and interior D-Linemen are the same thing as a true elite EDGE rusher, something we haven't had since 2005.

I get it.

Look, from 2010 to 2017 the Jets used 9 consecutive first round picks on defense. That's insane. Like, totally bonkers and out of step with (I would imagine) every other team in the NFL. If you go back further they've spent 14 out of 19 first round picks on defense since 2002. 

Subsequently it is no surprise that during that span, under defensive minded coaches like Herm Edwards, Eric Mangini, Rex Ryan, and Todd Bowles the Jets have collectively been above average on defense and fielded many very good and even excellent defenses -- and in turn have collectively been dreadful on offense. In that span I'd wager we've only had two offenses that even finished top half of the league. Maybe three.

So now, in 2019, after finally seemingly landing our QB of the future people are (rightly) obsessed with infusing our offense with talent to give him the best possible chance to succeed. And if we weren't 1) drafting so high in a draft stacked with edge rushers and 2) so bad at drafting from 2010-2017 that we still have serious talent issues at critical defensive positions I'd probably go that way too.

But if we can't trade down the obvious move is to take the elite player at the important position. Reaching for Jonah Williams or a WR that would otherwise go 15 picks later is just crazy, even if that's what we crave.

[Scoop24]

9 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Sure, but since none of it makes any sense based on the actual decisions that were made, I think we can chalk that up as false. 

Nothing false about it . Go listen to podcast yourself . They have dates and what games they where on canpus and everything . Why would Albert breer make it up?

[UntouchableCrew]

5 minutes ago, genot said:

Bosa scares me. Gets hurt alot. Like his brother

It's a concern.

I still think he's an elite player at the most important position on defense... And I think 32 out of 32 teams would be thrilled to have the elder Bosa on their team.

[genot]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If it came down to Josh Allen, Clelin Ferrell, or other EDGE rusher, who do you take?

With Gregg Williams,im warming up to Gary. Quick and athletic enough to play end. Big and strong enough to move inside on occasion.

[genot]

2 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

It's a concern.

I still think he's an elite player at the most important position on defense... And I think 32 out of 32 teams would be thrilled to have the elder Bosa on their team.

Hell yea,he's elite. It's the Jets. He'll break his hip, like marvin Jones did, and we'll never see the same player

[kdels62]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

With the way the rules have gone I can't agree there. 

The 2 schools of thought tend to be EITHER:  1) Generate a pass rush to take the pressure off your corners, OR 2) Get quality corners and blitz the hell out of your opponents.  Rarely can a team get BOTH of those things because of salary cap restraints and the lack of quality EDGE rushers and # 1-caliber corners out there. 

The problem is, there's just no such thing as a "shutdown CB" anymore.  And the best QB's out there know how to handle the various blitz packages.  So the only way to beat the best QB's in the playoffs is by giving him less than the 2.5 seconds to throw. 

Against Brady in particular, you need to get a pass-rush up the middle.  So if Aaron Donald can get past all the Patriot linemen getting away with holding, he'll have an enormous impact on the Super Bowl result. 

The idea is that to beat a good QB you have to defend the quick pass. Pass Rush takes 2 seconds to get to the QB and elite guys like Brady can beat you in those 2 seconds. PFF argues that you need CBs that force all QBs to hold the ball longer or else a pass rush doesn’t matter.

[Beerfish]

13 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

The idea is that to beat a good QB you have to defend the quick pass. Pass Rush takes 2 seconds to get to the QB and elite guys like Brady can beat you in those 2 seconds. PFF argues that you need CBs that force all QBs to hold the ball longer or else a pass rush doesn’t matter.

Brady kills you with crossing routes and short passes and seam routes to the TE along with many passes to RBs, often not directed at CBs.

James white 87 catches

Edelman 74 catches

Gronk 47 catches

[LES]

2 hours ago, kdels62 said:

And PFF says that CB should be more valuable than EDGE. 

Revis was taken at 15? How dumb were the other teams to have him slip thru their fingers. Greatest CB of all time. 

[UntouchableCrew]

18 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Brady kills you with crossing routes and short passes and seam routes to the TE along with many passes to RBs, often not directed at CBs.

James white 87 catches

Edelman 74 catches

Gronk 47 catches

Brady is kind of the exception, isn't he? Nobody does that as well as he does.

If you're looking to beat Brady Quinnen Williams might be the pick -- a guy who can collapse the pocket by bringing pressure up the middle.

[Beerfish]

15 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Brady is kind of the exception, isn't he? Nobody does that as well as he does.

If you're looking to beat Brady Quinnen Williams might be the pick -- a guy who can collapse the pocket by bringing pressure up the middle.

Is Williams aaron donald or Leo williams

[peebag]

I don't mind picking defense in the first round.  I do mind who is doing the talent evaluation of that pick.

[bealeb319]

And PFF says that CB should be more valuable than EDGE. 

I would be pretty happy if we land greedy Williams on the draft.

Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app

[jgb]

6 hours ago, peebag said:

I don't mind picking defense in the first round.  I do mind who is doing the talent evaluation of that pick.

Bingo bongo

52 minutes ago, bealeb319 said:

I would be pretty happy if we land greedy Williams on the draft.

Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app
 

Macc drafts scared/not to lose in the first round. He will take the highest consensus pick remaining when Jets are on the clock.

[Jetsfan80]

I would be pretty happy if we land greedy Williams on the draft.

Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app

Not at 3, please!

[joenamathwouldn'tcry]

Am starting to see the wisdom behind taking an edge rusher or monster defensive tackle with the #1 pick as much as it pains me to say. I don't think we're getting that guy in free agency.  That being said it is now more imperative to trade down if possible,  which should be the case.  The only possible exception being if Bosa or Josh Allen is there at #3.  If we trade down to between #6 and #15 we should be able to get either a top offensive lineman, or a more than  competent defensive tackle in that position.  With an added second pick you would then take the positional player you passed on in round #1 or grab an upper tier running back, corner, receiver or another offensive lineman.  Our two number threes should be spent on a running back, more offensive line help or any player,  best athlete available, that would slip to us in that slot.  Fourth round maybe a blocking tight end, more line help on either side of the ball or a fast, athletic linebacker would be nice.  The market, player availability and marquee talent acquisition will govern our free-agent spending, and that outcome will also obviously, help steer our draft strategy going forward.

[LES]

12 hours ago, New York Mick said:

******* punters average $3 million a year?

Bowles put them on the map.

[rangerous]

14 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Per overthecap.com, below are the median salaries among the top 10 at each position.  I chose the median in order to cut out extreme outliers:

 

1.  QB:  $26 million 

2.  EDGE:  $17 million

3.  WR:  $16 million

4.  4-3 DT:  $14 million

5.  CB:  $13.5 million

6.  LT:  $13 million 

7.  3-4 DE:  $12 million

8.  RG:  $10 million 

Safety:  $10 million

10.  Non pass-rushing 4-3 OLB:  $9.25 million

11.  Center:  $9 million

ILB:  $9 million

13.  TE:  $8.5 million

14.  LG:  $8 million 

RB:  $8 million

16.  RT:  $7.5 million

17.  K:  $4 million

18.  3-4 DT:  $3.5 million

19.  P:  $3 million

20.  FB:  $1.8 million

21.  LS:  $1.1 million

 

Assuming the Jets switch to a front that has preference to 4-3 types of players, the above positions are "set" for the Jets:  QB (Darnold); RG (Winters); S (Adams, Maye); Non pass-rushing OLB and ILB (Darron Lee, Avery Williamson); K (Myers); P (Edwards); LS (Hennessy).

That leaves these as the Jets' most pressing needs:

 

1.  EDGE:  $17 million

2.  WR1:  $16 million

3.  4-3 DT:  $14 million

4.  CB1:  $13.5 million

5.  LT:  $13 million 

6.  Center:  $9 million

7.  LG:  $8 million 

RB:  $8 million

9.  RT:  $7.5 million

 

You can see, thus, how much the league values EDGE, a true WR1, a pass-rushing DT, a CB1, and a LT over the other needs that we have.  It may come as a surprise to learn that 3 of our top 5 biggest needs are on defense, despite all the resources devoted to the position in the past. 

The big question that could adjust this needs list would be whether Leonard Williams can become the player we drafted him to be as an interior pass-rusher.  Since that remains to be decided, its still worth considering whether we need to invest more resources into the position.  Keep in mind the impact a player like Aaron Donald has had for the Rams:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/25310605/numbers-pass-rush-dominance-aaron-donald-los-angeles-rams-2018-nfl

And when Donald wins those battles?  Opposing QB's have the lowest QB rating in the NFL.  When he doesn't?  They have the highest QB Rating.  Thus, you could make an argument that acquiring a Donald-level pass rusher at the DT position is the most franchise-changing move a team can make on the defensive side of the ball. 

Overall, what I'm trying to argue here is that those who wish the Jets to ignore defense at the top of the draft board need to take a serious look at how NFL teams spend their money and follow that line of logic.  While Offensive Line as a unit is more important than any one of those positions, no "impact player" at the top of the board is more valuable than an EDGE rusher or a pass-rushing DT.  Even a # 1 Corner is just as valuable as LT.  And, as luck would have it, this year's draft board is heavy on defense at the top. 

So, when given the choice between a stud EDGE (like Bosa or Josh Allen), a pass-rushing DT (like Quinnen Williams) or a franchise LT (if there is one on this draft), the numbers suggest you take the defensive player every single time. 

nice list and an important list given the salary cap.  if you add up all of those values then you get roughly 204 million to fill out about 21 players but then aren't left with much to fill out the rest of the team. by your list when you add up the jets' pressing needs it comes to 104 million.  it pretty much speaks to the need to make sure enough good players come from the draft.

[Jetster]

I think paying crazy money for 1 stud WR is a losing proposition, its better to draft a WR after the 1st round & have a cheaper rookie contract. If you find a QB who can spread the ball around you can get by with guys that run great routes, work within the system & this allows you to spread the money & have a more balanced team. 

 

[Jetsfan80]

3 hours ago, rangerous said:

nice list and an important list given the salary cap.  if you add up all of those values then you get roughly 204 million to fill out about 21 players but then aren't left with much to fill out the rest of the team. by your list when you add up the jets' pressing needs it comes to 104 million.  it pretty much speaks to the need to make sure enough good players come from the draft. 

Yep.  That's why an elite pass rusher on a cheap rookie deal becomes incredibly valuable.  You're getting a $17 million dollar a year player for peanuts over a 5 year deal. 

Look at the Browns.  They have what appears to be a franchise QB, an elite pass rusher and true # 1 corner....all on their rookie deals. 

[Jetsfan80]

3 hours ago, Jetster said:

I think paying crazy money for 1 stud WR is a losing proposition, its better to draft a WR after the 1st round & have a cheaper rookie contract. If you find a QB who can spread the ball around you can get by with guys that run great routes, work within the system & this allows you to spread the money & have a more balanced team.  

 

Agreed.  Paying elite money to a WR hasn't worked out very well for most of the teams that elected to do so.  Giants (Odell), Steelers (Brown), Bucs (Evans), Chiefs (Watkins), Bengals (AJ Green) are among the teams that handed massive contracts (8+ % of their cap) to WR's. 

I think the rest of the positions near the top are valued properly, however.

[prime21]

If we were knocking on the the door steps of a Super Bowl then maybe we take the risk with a high priced WR but the recent spending on them hasn't worked well.

[JohnnyLV]

22 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Per overthecap.com, below are the median salaries among the top 10 at each position.  I chose the median in order to cut out extreme outliers:

 

1.  QB:  $26 million 

2.  EDGE:  $17 million

3.  WR:  $16 million

4.  4-3 DT:  $14 million

5.  CB:  $13.5 million

6.  LT:  $13 million 

7.  3-4 DE:  $12 million

8.  RG:  $10 million 

Safety:  $10 million

10.  Non pass-rushing 4-3 OLB:  $9.25 million

11.  Center:  $9 million

ILB:  $9 million

13.  TE:  $8.5 million

14.  LG:  $8 million 

RB:  $8 million

16.  RT:  $7.5 million

17.  K:  $4 million

18.  3-4 DT:  $3.5 million

19.  P:  $3 million

20.  FB:  $1.8 million

21.  LS:  $1.1 million

 

Assuming the Jets switch to a front that has preference to 4-3 types of players, the above positions are "set" for the Jets:  QB (Darnold); RG (Winters); S (Adams, Maye); Non pass-rushing OLB and ILB (Darron Lee, Avery Williamson); K (Myers); P (Edwards); LS (Hennessy).

That leaves these as the Jets' most pressing needs:

 

1.  EDGE:  $17 million

2.  WR1:  $16 million

3.  4-3 DT:  $14 million

4.  CB1:  $13.5 million

5.  LT:  $13 million 

6.  Center:  $9 million

7.  LG:  $8 million 

RB:  $8 million

9.  RT:  $7.5 million

 

You can see, thus, how much the league values EDGE, a true WR1, a pass-rushing DT, a CB1, and a LT over the other needs that we have.  It may come as a surprise to learn that 3 of our top 5 biggest needs are on defense, despite all the resources devoted to the position in the past. 

The big question that could adjust this needs list would be whether Leonard Williams can become the player we drafted him to be as an interior pass-rusher.  Since that remains to be decided, its still worth considering whether we need to invest more resources into the position.  Keep in mind the impact a player like Aaron Donald has had for the Rams:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/25310605/numbers-pass-rush-dominance-aaron-donald-los-angeles-rams-2018-nfl

And when Donald wins those battles?  Opposing QB's have the lowest QB rating in the NFL.  When he doesn't?  They have the highest QB Rating.  Thus, you could make an argument that acquiring a Donald-level pass rusher at the DT position is the most franchise-changing move a team can make on the defensive side of the ball. 

Overall, what I'm trying to argue here is that those who wish the Jets to ignore defense at the top of the draft board need to take a serious look at how NFL teams spend their money and follow that line of logic.  While Offensive Line as a unit is more important than any one of those positions, no "impact player" at the top of the board is more valuable than an EDGE rusher or a pass-rushing DT.  Even a # 1 Corner is just as valuable as LT.  And, as luck would have it, this year's draft board is heavy on defense at the top. 

So, when given the choice between a stud EDGE (like Bosa or Josh Allen), a pass-rushing DT (like Quinnen Williams) or a franchise LT (if there is one on this draft), the numbers suggest you take the defensive player every single time. 

A thoughtful and reasoned article/post but with an invalid premise. Median salaries are not directly related to relative importance to a FB team. LT, especially for the Jets is FAR more important than an edge rusher, and far more important for almost every team in the NFL. Edge is one of the flashiest positions and can at times be a dominant force in a game, but it is generally overrated in the media. Having a puss rush is crucial, having an edge rusher is not. And they are the riskiest first round picks in the NFL. Choosing Edge over a LT or trade down in this draft would be a disastrously poor decision for the Jets. Quinnen Williams would be EPICALLY terrible.

[rangerous]

4 hours ago, prime21 said:

If we were knocking on the the door steps of a Super Bowl then maybe we take the risk with a high priced WR but the recent spending on them hasn't worked well.

i think too that these elite receivers don't seem to last as long as guys like jerry rice or larry fitzgerald.  maybe it's an attitude problem. 

[rangerous]

3 hours ago, johnnysd said:

A thoughtful and reasoned article/post but with an invalid premise. Median salaries are not directly related to relative importance to a FB team. LT, especially for the Jets is FAR more important than an edge rusher, and far more important for almost every team in the NFL. Edge is one of the flashiest positions and can at times be a dominant force in a game, but it is generally overrated in the media. Having a puss rush is crucial, having an edge rusher is not. And they are the riskiest first round picks in the NFL. Choosing Edge over a LT or trade down in this draft would be a disastrously poor decision for the Jets. Quinnen Williams would be EPICALLY terrible.

it's only invalid if you think the higher priced players are also more rare than average.  of course this can be said of qb's.  there aren't many players that can play the position game in and game out over many seasons.  as for edge rusher, they aren't always the guy who goes top 10 in the draft so they aren't as rare as a qb.  so for that reason the salary teams are willing to pay is an indication of how important he is to a team.

i think you are trying to make a case to choose a left tackle with the number 3 pick whereas that draft position should maybe go towards to a defensive player such as edge.  imo if the LT grades out in the top 5 or even top 7 then maybe your case is valid but taking a LT too many rounds higher than his draft projection indicates may not be so good. the jets would be better off trading down to top 10 and then getting the LT.

[Philc1]

On 1/29/2019 at 3:57 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

If it came down to Josh Allen, Clelin Ferrell, or other EDGE rusher, who do you take?

Bosa when he falls to 3