2020 Draft General Plan - The Warfish Way (as of 1/6/20)

[Jetsfan80]

10 hours ago, More Cowbell said:

Why is it this is the only business in the world that you take a guy that never drafted before, and you trust him to make all the right moves his first time out. No other business would this be done. I honestly can't  think of any comparison.  

Because if Douglas isn't the real deal, we're f**ked either way, whether we have the great Jamal Adams on the roster or not.  What choice do we have?  The guy has a 6-year contract here, and we know the Johnson's are never going to make a quality GM hire if Douglas doesn't work out.  

[Jetsfan80]

10 hours ago, More Cowbell said:

Let's  say Chase Young slid to 11. Maybe he gets arrested for DWI. Do you pass on him? I would say edge is possibly a biiger need than OL. 

He'd have to do something pretty egregious to fall that far.  I don't think a DWI would be enough.  But in that very unrealistic instance, I would either draft Chase Young OR look to trade down.  

[Jetsfan80]

11 hours ago, More Cowbell said:

Oh BS. How many trade Sam threads have there been on the forum?

Do you think Watson or Pat perform any better running for their life every down?

Yes, I think Watson and Mahomes would be significant upgrades over Sam Darnold.  They wouldn't be having as much success as they are in their current situations/systems, but they'd both be well above average QB's.  

Only a ridiculous homer can watch those 2 QB's play and say Sam is on that level.  

[Jetsfan80]

13 hours ago, RobR said:

He's incredibly overrated as of now. 

Ah right.  I guess you missed the years where the Center couldn't even snap the ball properly.  

Everyone overrates the Center position until you watch a team that doesn't have a good one.  

[Jetsfan80]

14 hours ago, RVAJet815 said:

Including if the new guy decides to keep Jamal? People seem to be of the opinion that it's a foregone conclusion that JD trades Jamal. What if he doesn't? What if the 'new guy' decides that dealing...easily...our best player on the roster for pennies on the dollar is a bad idea? He's already said as much to anyone that would listen.

 

Why would the super elite All-Pro Jamal Adams only be valued at "pennies on the dollar" rates?  Would that mean that 31 other teams, shockingly, don't value him anywhere close to how the majority of Jets fans value him?

If Jamal is as good as you, and he, says he is, he should net a king's ransom, right?  And if not, is he really all that impactful a player?

[bla bla bla]

@Warfish This was a well thought out post, I didn't look through all 6 pages of comments so my apologies if you hit some of the points I wanna bring up.

- Jacksonville is projected to be $1.5m OVER the cap next year some I'm not sure they are a legit option for Adams. They'll need about $10m just to sign their draft class. But I think getting the #20 pick is a safe number to assume from a mock logistic point of view, I think Dallas is ultimately the big fish here.

- I think one of those 3 LTs will be the initial targets as you said but I really think there may be a possibility that all 3 are gone before we pick. All 3 QBs, Thomas, Okudah, and Young will be gone - I'm not 100% sold on Jeudy but I think he's probably gone as well. Trade down / WR would be my pick here if those LT are gone. Lamb or Jefferson would be my target.

- Could the Biadasz pick be a reach? Sure but for the top C I have no issues, the chances of him making it to #48 are going to be pretty slim IMO. #BuildTheWall

- I love your Jefferson pick and would jump through hoops if he were to fall to 48 but my guy says he won't make it out of the first. I think him and Lamb are the 2 best WRs I've watched so far. The argument could be that Burrow is the reason for Jefferson's success but man I really like him more than Jeudy.

 

I don't know enough about the later picks yet but I like the positional targets.

[Warfish]

9 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Of course not. But I also thought Muhammad Wilkerson was a guy you could build a franchise around so don’t listen to anything I say.

Lol, fair enough.

59 minutes ago, shawn306 said:

He is one of the guys that IMHO is the foundation of this franchise. Basically it is Adams and Darnold right now.

An interesting answer, because it's not the answer to what I asked, lol. 

Yes, Adams is a "foundation" of the current 4-to-7 win Jets Organization of 2017-2019.

But is he the kind of player a team can build around going forward, into the future?  Do you design your Defense around him, his skills and what he brings?  Do you sign other defenders to compliment him, instead of do what he does (currently, mostly pass rush production)?  Do you make him the highest paid defender in the NFL?  The highest paid Safety in NFL history?  etc, etc, etc.

From the responses in this discussion, it certainly seems like many of our fans do in fact think this.  This discussion will get VERY interesting when the time comes to pay the piper for Adams with a new contract, or, if Douglas actually does trade him away.  

[bla bla bla]

11 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Why would the super elite All-Pro Jamal Adams only be valued at "pennies on the dollar" rates?  Would that mean that 31 other teams, shockingly, don't value him anywhere close to how the majority of Jets fans value him?

If Jamal is as good as you, and he, says he is, he should net a king's ransom, right?  And if not, is he really all that impactful a player?

The floor for a Jamal trade probably needs to be a 1st and a 3rd. My starting point would be two 1sts, but that would be to rich for most I think. For me it also kinda depends how we handle FA, if we have money laying around because we let Robby walk and couldn't attract other guys then I'm fine with extending Jamal.

 

That is unless he wants top defensive player money, in that case ✌?

[Warfish]

4 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

@Warfish This was a well thought out post, I didn't look through all 6 pages of comments so my apologies if you hit some of the points I wanna bring up.

Thank you.

4 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

- Jacksonville is projected to be $1.5m OVER the cap next year some I'm not sure they are a legit option for Adams. They'll need about $10m just to sign their draft class. But I think getting the #20 pick is a safe number to assume from a mock logistic point of view, I think Dallas is ultimately the big fish here.

I used Jacksonville as a placeholder here.  This early it's borderline impossible to predict actual [picks and trades, with Free Agency still to come, front office changes to come, etc, etc, etc.  I used Jacksonville specifically because I didn't want to use Dallas (it was a better pick), due to conservative prediction making and.   because Jacksonville is also mocked to be looking hard at a first round Safety this year.  Dallas is definitely an option still (IMO) despite the coaching change.

4 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

- I think one of those 3 LTs will be the initial targets as you said but I really think there may be a possibility that all 3 are gone before we pick. All 3 QBs, Thomas, Okudah, and Young will be gone - I'm not 100% sold on Jeudy but I think he's probably gone as well. Trade down / WR would be my pick here if those LT are gone. Lamb or Jefferson would be my target.

If the elite O-line prospects are all gone by our pick (and personally, I do not think they will be) then we have limited options, but still good options.  We can obviously flip my plans 1st and 2nd round priorities, and pick WR at #11 and look O-line in the 2nd, no problem with that if that's how the draft falls.  I don't think edge should be the pick in round 1, but I can understand why others do.  I just cannot justify adding a #1 pick edge to the 7th ranked defense and waiting to start helping the 32nd ranked offense, especially given our history of offensive ineptitude and failure.  At some point, offense must be prioritized, especially and specifically the O-line.

4 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

- Could the Biadasz pick be a reach? Sure but for the top C I have no issues, the chances of him making it to #48 are going to be pretty slim IMO. #BuildTheWall

It absolutely could be.  It's a slight possibility he could still be available at our pick in the 2nd, but from what I've heard so far, not likely.  And Center is not the strongest position in this draft, limiting later round options (but not fully eliminating them).  Of our O-line today, Harrison MIGHT just be ok enough as a placeholder for one more season if he gets every snap in camp and is the starter from day 1 (no more Khalil).  We could be flexible here perhaps, again, depending on how the draft falls.  But I still prefer O-line or Offensive skill players here.  We need a direct injection of top-end ofensive talent, badly.   

4 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

- I love your Jefferson pick and would jump through hoops if he were to fall to 48 but my guy says he won't make it out of the first. I think him and Lamb are the 2 best WRs I've watched so far. The argument could be that Burrow is the reason for Jefferson's success but man I really like him more than Jeudy.

As everyone knows, I'm not a "college guy".  These plans are generally draft together from multiple sources, especially evaluation of prospects.  I've seen a number of mocks currently that have Jefferson available to us in the 2nd, but yes, some have him gone just before our pick.  I think as time goes on, and things start to settle, FA's get signed, etc, we'll be in a much better position to start guessing actual spots for guys.  For now, I like the idea of walking out after the 2nd round with a top Tackle, the top Center and a great WR prospect, in general hopes/plans. 

As they say, no war plan ever survives first contact with the enemy, and similarly, no draft plan (especially this early) survives FA, the combines and time.   

4 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

I don't know enough about the later picks yet but I like the positional targets.

 

[GREENBEAN]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Link?

lol 

Its purely based on the same documents where you found the pro holdout content. We're reading the same stuff.   

[shawn306]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Lol, fair enough.

An interesting answer, because it's not the answer to what I asked, lol. 

Yes, Adams is a "foundation" of the current 4-to-7 win Jets Organization of 2017-2019.

But is he the kind of player a team can build around going forward, into the future?  Do you design your Defense around him, his skills and what he brings?  Do you sign other defenders to compliment him, instead of do what he does (currently, mostly pass rush production)?  Do you make him the highest paid defender in the NFL?  The highest paid Safety in NFL history?  etc, etc, etc.

From the responses in this discussion, it certainly seems like many of our fans do in fact think this.  This discussion will get VERY interesting when the time comes to pay the piper for Adams with a new contract, or, if Douglas actually does trade him away.  

I don't subscribe to the notion that you build a defense around one guy like you do with QB and the offense.

Defense to me is 11 guys going out and beating the Sh!t out of people as one unit.

Biggest issue is the cap hit numbers for Mosely and Johnson. They have to get those numbers down before they could extend Adams.

 

[Bergen Jet]

@Warfish... great job as always bud.

[bitonti]

3 hours ago, Obrien2Toon said:

Bama’s strength and conditioning coach makes over 500k, more than a lot d1 head coaches, for a reason

this give him a year in a nfl weight room is a joke 

 

13 hours ago, JTJet said:

Personally I think this train of thought never flies. 

He had been at Alabama for 3 years essentially doing nothing BUT working out at a NFL level at the premier college football program in the country, then an entire NFL level pre draft training regiment, then an entire NFL camp, then an entire NFL preseason, and then the entire NFL season...

.. and still looked like the fat kid that stayed up at night watching DragonBall Z and eating DingDongs.

Here's the calendar grind of rookie year NFL: 

they go through the CFB season, Bowl game, combine training, pro days, get like a couple weeks off after the draft, then rookie minicamp, real minicamp, a month off in June, TC and the season

what ends up happening, especially with these larger players, is they aren't ready for it and more importantly 

THEY DONT HAVE AN OFFSEASON 

don't believe me? Find me a DT that dominated as a rookie this year... like Ed Oliver's 5 sacks in the 4-3 are so much better than Q's 2.5 in the 3-4? btw - rookie DTs don't get 10 sacks it just doesn't happen year 1 usually. 

fwiw  2 sacks isn't nothing. Jeffery Simmons has 2 sacks this year for the titans and they are crowing like he's the next John Randle 

Drob wasn't Gholston.  nothing is nothing 

more importantly QUENTIN can 2 gap! and be part of the league's #1 Rush D, something that actually happened and everyone seems to want to throw in the trash in favor of Sack stats 

[More Cowbell]

3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Because if Douglas isn't the real deal, we're f**ked either way, whether we have the great Jamal Adams on the roster or not.  What choice do we have?  The guy has a 6-year contract here, and we know the Johnson's are never going to make a quality GM hire if Douglas doesn't work out.  

Honestly, before I trust him with 2 high draft picks, i want to see something. If he has that much coin in this draft and he screws it up, he will set this franchise back 10 years. 

[More Cowbell]

3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

He'd have to do something pretty egregious to fall that far.  I don't think a DWI would be enough.  But in that very unrealistic instance, I would either draft Chase Young OR look to trade down.  

You want to talk unrealistic, how about trading Adams with 2 years left on his rookie deal

[More Cowbell]

3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yes, I think Watson and Mahomes would be significant upgrades over Sam Darnold.  They wouldn't be having as much success as they are in their current situations/systems, but they'd both be well above average QB's.  

Only a ridiculous homer can watch those 2 QB's play and say Sam is on that level.  

Not what i said. Both QB's have studs. Watson has Hopkins (best WR in NFL) , Fuller, and Stills is the 3. Houston has an outstanding OL. I'm not even going to mention what KC has offensively.  How can you seriously make the comparison  with Sam. 

On the Jets they are throwing to Anderso,  Smith, and Crowder, occasionally Bell when Gase feels generous  and calls his number but that is when 1 or 2 unblocked DL or LB's are rushing straight up the middle blowing things up. 

[RobR]

3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Ah right.  I guess you missed the years where the Center couldn't even snap the ball properly.  

Everyone overrates the Center position until you watch a team that doesn't have a good one.  

I guess you missed the Rose Bowl where Biadasz could barely snap the ball properly.  

[Jetsfan80]

9 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

You want to talk unrealistic, how about trading Adams with 2 years left on his rookie deal

Considering JD was taking calls on Jamal at the trade deadline, and was fairly close to a deal with Dallas, its not that unrealistic. 

[BettyBoop]

I don't see the logic in projecting draft picks without first projecting free agency.  It just doesn't make any sense to me.  For example, if Adams is traded do you really want to supplement the current batch of corners with fourth round picks and think the secondary can hold up?  I know most posters feel that the defense can be ignored this offseason due to Greg Williams' magic wand but it just ain't so.  Take Adams out of the equation and the defense will be like a one-footed kicker.

On the other hand, if you project that Douglas (or Chris Johnson who really makes the calls) will sign a starting corner (or two), a decent OLB and two (or three) mid-tier potential starters on the OL (e.g., Alex Lewis) in free agency, then projecting the draft makes sense.

The other factor here is expectations.  Douglas has a six year contract that pays him a lot of money.  That said, he is likely to take a long-term approach to rebuilding this team.  If the Johnson's and Jets fans are expecting a Super Bowl contender in 2020 then any plan will fail, if not next year, then the subsequent years.  That might mean re-signing Beachum to play LT next year and taking a CB or edge guy in the first round and a LT project on day three.  A lot of money falls off the books in 2021 when Bell, Anderson, Roberts (already gone in 2020) and Enunwa are gone.

If Douglas is really THE guy his plan will be looking past 2020.

 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, RobR said:

I guess you missed the Rose Bowl where Biadasz could barely snap the ball properly.  

So your issue is with Biadasz, not taking a Center in general?  Or both? 

[Jetsfan80]

5 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

Not what i said. Both QB's have studs. Watson has Hopkins (best WR in NFL) , Fuller, and Stills is the 3. Houston has an outstanding OL. I'm not even going to mention what KC has offensively.  How can you seriously make the comparison  with Sam. 

Because they're significantly better QB's (especially in the case of Mahomes).  It's quite clear.  Only a homer would argue otherwise.  QB's are only partly made by their circumstances.  Not entirely made by their circumstances, like you seem to be implying. 

Really good QB's take whatever circumstances they're in and make their teammates better.  Think Sam would have a 50 TD season if he were the KC QB?  Come on man.

[Jetsfan80]

15 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

Honestly, before I trust him with 2 high draft picks, i want to see something. If he has that much coin in this draft and he screws it up, he will set this franchise back 10 years. 

Even if he only has limited draft picks and f**ks them up, we're set back.  Either he can draft or he can't. 

I'd prefer to give him as many picks as possible, because if he sucks at drafting, we're screwed either way.  If he's GOOD at drafting, this could be a franchise-altering offseason.  The potential benefits far outweigh the potential costs.  

[More Cowbell]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Considering JD was taking calls on Jamal at the trade deadline, and was fairly close to a deal with Dallas, its not that unrealistic. 

If the compensation that was reported was real, I'd say that makes for a stronger case he is going nowhere. 

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

If the compensation that was reported was real, I'd say that makes for a stronger case he is going nowhere. 

Had Dallas added a 3rd rounder, its very possible Adams would have been gone already.  Neither you nor I can say anything definitive based on the information we have.  

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, GREENBEAN said:

lol 

Its purely based on the same documents where you found the pro holdout content. We're reading the same stuff.   

At least my case was based on actual things Jamal has said and done.  

[Jetsfan80]

3 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

That is unless he wants top defensive player money, in that case ✌?

Strap in then.  Because that's exactly what he's going to demand. 

[More Cowbell]

5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Because they're significantly better QB's (especially in the case of Mahomes).  It's quite clear.  Only a homer would argue otherwise.  QB's are only partly made by their circumstances.  Not entirely made by their circumstances, like you seem to be implying. 

Really good QB's take whatever circumstances they're in and make their teammates better.  Think Sam would have a 50 TD season if he were the KC QB?  Come on man.

Mahomes went to QB heaven.  There is no other team he has that same kind of success. As far as the two QB's talents, I think Mahomes is a more finished product but he plays on a totally loaded team throwing to a top 3 WR, Best TE in the league, has a solid enough running game, top 3 OL, and his HC is one of the smartest offensive minds the league has ever seen. You couldn't  possibly ask for a better situation. If you think Mahomes looks the same on the Jets, i would say you are the one who is not being realistic. As far as Sam making people look good, Anderson looks like a legit WR and he in no way a number 1, but Sam makes him appear like one, Sam has made Griffen into a legit TE receiving threat and that is all behind an OL that can't  stop water flowing uphill. 

Honestly comparing them is impossible.  You just can't.  If you like them better, sure, i can't  argue with that but I think you put Sam on KC or Houston, you see a very different QB. 

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, More Cowbell said:

Mahomes went to QB heaven.  There is no other team he has that same kind of success. As far as the two QB's talents, I think Mahomes is a more finished product but he plays on a totally loaded team throwing to a top 3 WR, Best TE in the league, has a solid enough running game, top 3 OL, and his HC is one of the smartest offensive minds the league has ever seen. You couldn't  possibly ask for a better situation. If you think Mahomes looks the same on the Jets, i would say you are the one who is not being realistic. As far as Sam making people look good, Anderson looks like a legit WR and he in no way a number 1, but Sam makes him appear like one, Sam has made Griffen into a legit TE receiving threat and that is all behind an OL that can't  stop water flowing uphill. 

Honestly comparing them is impossible.  You just can't.  If you like them better, sure, i can't  argue with that but I think you put Sam on KC or Houston, you see a very different QB. 

 

Of course we can compare them.  Just watch them play.  For f**ks sake.  

[More Cowbell]

15 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Even if he only has limited draft picks and f**ks them up, we're set back.  Either he can draft or he can't. 

I'd prefer to give him as many picks as possible, because if he sucks at drafting, we're screwed either way.  If he's GOOD at drafting, this could be a franchise-altering offseason.  The potential benefits far outweigh the potential costs.  

Totally disagree. There is no reason to rush. The Jets will not be a playoff team next season. It's  not possible no matter who we sign or draft. You can trade Adams next season if that is the plan. If he is as good as you hope, he will do well even if it's  a draft like last year. He finds DK Metcalf. Giving someone a Ferrari to learn to drive with is stupid. 

[More Cowbell]

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Of course we can compare them.  Just watch them play.  For f**ks sake.  

Talking to you is like talking to a wall. Anyone with the slightest amount of objectivity  would admit you reverse roles of any of the two, playing behind the worst OL innthebhistory of the NFL would severely  hinder them. 

[More Cowbell]

15 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Had Dallas added a 3rd rounder, its very possible Adams would have been gone already.  Neither you nor I can say anything definitive based on the information we have.  

It was reported multiple  picks were offered. I said the story was BS when i read it but that was the story that was floated by the media. 

[RobR]

30 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

So your issue is with Biadasz, not taking a Center in general?  Or both? 

I hope we draft a center because Harrison is awful. I also think Biadasz is overrated and don't get these first round vibes.

[BornJetsFan1983]

4 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Ah right.  I guess you missed the years where the Center couldn't even snap the ball properly.  

Everyone overrates the Center position until you watch a team that doesn't have a good one.  

THIS IS THE TRUTH!!!

[BornJetsFan1983]

14 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

Totally disagree. There is no reason to rush. The Jets will not be a playoff team next season. It's  not possible no matter who we sign or draft. You can trade Adams next season if that is the plan. If he is as good as you hope, he will do well even if it's  a draft like last year. He finds DK Metcalf. Giving someone a Ferrari to learn to drive with is stupid. 

this is not true. You litterally have a new team every year if you wanted to in the NFL. What are you talking about? Every single season is completely differet.  I wanted to like this post then you said all that dumb stuff. We can be playoff team next year absolutely. With the right moves and coaching change we absolutely could.

[More Cowbell]

25 minutes ago, BornJetsFan1983 said:

this is not true. You litterally have a new team every year if you wanted to in the NFL. What are you talking about? Every single season is completely differet.  I wanted to like this post then you said all that dumb stuff. We can be playoff team next year absolutely. With the right moves and coaching change we absolutely could.

You are asking for a miracle.  We need 5 new guys on the OL. I have not seen anything from any of them that tells me this guy should be a starter in the NFL. We have e a bunch of backups there. We have no DB. Austin is a nice story and played well when he first came in but his played tailed off as the season went on. Poole is ok but he is a FA and I'm not sure the Jets will prioritize  him. We have no pass rushers at all. A slot WR is the best guy one on the team, and Bell was freaking disaster. That guy was the biggest black hole on the team I have seen since Revis returned. 

There is just too much to fix.