2020 Draft General Plan - The Warfish Way (as of 1/6/20)

[derp]

Think Thomas and Biadasz are getting drafted later than the board seems to believe.

[slimjasi]

11 minutes ago, derp said:

Think Thomas and Biadasz are getting drafted later than the board seems to believe.

We are all obsessed with OL and WR, but the draft has a lot of moving parts and is just hella unpredictable. 

[derp]

4 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

We are all obsessed with OL and WR, but the draft has a lot of moving parts and is just hella unpredictable. 

Every year it seems like this board clings to the projections the beginning of the season - very few of which had Thomas as a top of the draft guy anyway, generally he was back end of the top ten. Seems like after people have watched more this season neither is as highly thought of as prior consensus. Which is fine - just likely will lead to a lot of annoying complaints.

[Jet_Engine1]

Teeeee Deeeee, Ceeeeee Deeeee!!!

[NYJ1]

5 hours ago, Warfish said:

First and most vital presumption: 

Jamal Adams is traded for a #1 pick in 2020.  For purposes of this, I will accept a #4 as the second pick we get, and yes, I know many here will be made at that theoretical compensation.

Again, for purposes of projection, I'm going ultra-conservative, and say the #1 pick is #20 overall (Jacksonville), a team projected in some mocks to go Safety in Round 1 this year.  Higher picks could be possible.

Current Jets O-line players Beachum (OT), Harrison (C/OG) and Shell (OT/OG) and Edoga (OL) are retained, for depth if nothing else.. 

L. Bell is retained at #1 RB (because he's not going to get us enough to be worth trading).

-------------------------

Round #1 - #11 Overall - With Thomas projected off the Board, the pick here is Tristan Wirfs (OT) or Jedrick Wills (OT).  The O-Line Rebuild begins.

Round #1 (For Adams) - #20 Overall - I would (perhaps riskily) skip WR and get the best Center in the Draft, Tyler Biadasz (C)

Round #2 - Justin Jefferson (WR), LSU.  6'3", 192.  Potential legit #1 WR, great route runner, good body control, uses his size well to make contested catches.

Round #3 - Calvin Throckmorton (OG), Oregon.  

Round #3 - Michael Pittman Jr., (WR), LSU.  6'5", good hands, big bully of a WR and run blocker.  Little weak on separation, but helps establish what I want in my offense, big strong tough bullies who will block.  Worth a chance here.

Round #4 - Curtis Weaver, (DE/OLB), Boise State.  An Edge prospect.  Worth the risk at this spot.

Round #4 (for Adams) - Lamar Jackson, (CB), Nebraska.  6'3", 215.  

Round #5 - Hamsah Nasirildeen (S), FSU.  6'4", 215.

Round #6 - Levonta Taylor (CB), FSU, 5'10", 190.

Round #7 - Pick Um'.  RB.  OG.  OT.  EDGE.  BAP with max upside and bully toughness is fine here.  Sorry, my bad, this was traded away.

---------------------------

The players above are placeholders.  Most should be available at or around those spots, as of today, but a ton will change between today and draft day.  The basic plan, however, should remain.

A dedicated focus on rebuilding the O-line.  We get top-end prospects at Center and Tackle in the 1st, with a likely very solid Guard in the 3rd.  Leaves only two spots to be filled by existing linemen or FA's (preferably existing if possible, Harrison?  Beachum?  Shell? Edoga?)

The WR unit, currently made up of Crowder in the slot and D. Thomas at #3 at best, gets a material infusion of young talent.  We take a shot at a #1 with Jefferson, and get a bully who can block and fight for the ball on short routes in coverage with Pittman.  Focus on solid route running and winning contested catches.

The Defense waits a while, and we do not get a true elite EDGE, sadly we cannot solve every problem in one offseason draft.  

But we do address the glaring need in the DBackfield at Cornerback with two upside prospects who could materially help solve this problem, and we provide a new prospect at Safety to handle the Adams position with Maye.  We lose something there vs. the run (hopefully to be handled by our returned LB'ers and an improved QW), but should gain in pass coverage an INT's.  

This general plan (and again, the specific players can and likely will change by draft day!) leaves us still amongst the worst in the NFL at pass rush Edge, and we take a hit at Safety but gain at CB and pass coverage.  Our O-line is rebuilt and our WR corp. infused with talent to pair with Crowder/Thomas/Herndon/Griffin/Enunwa-if-back.

Edge becomes our top FA need (along with more OL!), and if not addressed, the #1 need going into 2021 without question.

Sam gets the help he desperately needs with a young O-line and WR corp.  RB also has to wait till 2021 for the future, but should be patch-able via FA.

Draft plan leans hard on offense (makes up for the past 16 years), and expects ALOT out of D-Co Williams again in 2020 with a healthy LB corp. and the loss of Adams.

Some FA's to target:

Brandon Schrerff (28 years old), OG, Redskins

Justin Simmons, (26), S, Broncos.

 

I stopped reading after Jamal Adams was traded. 

[HighPitch]

Heres an idea: extend Adams now.

why cant we have a home grown star?

we can afford to have one star

[HighPitch]

Pay adams 15

say no to robbies demands. Bye.

draft 2 wrs early in rounds 1 to 3

draft 2 o line guys early in rounds 1 to 3

end of problem

[joewilly12]

1 minute ago, HighPitch said:

Pay adams 15

say no to robbies demands. Bye.

draft 2 wrs early in rounds 1 to 3

draft 2 o line guys early in rounds 1 to 3

end of problem

[Jets Voice of Reason]

2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

There are currently two Adams-like players projected to go in the first twenty picks in the draft in Grant Delpit and Isaiah Simmons. If you’re a team inclined to draft one of those guy with your first round pick, might it be worth your while to forfeit a third rounder (and a fat salary) in order to secure a proven two-time All Pro at the position who’s allegedly a leader and self-styled celebrity? 

I hope so. I’m definitely in the trade Jamal for a first and third especially in this year’s draft. Don’t think CJ has the balls to do it. 

[DetroitRed]

We are giving up Adams for the basically the same return a M. Fitzpatrick...  No thanks

[56mehl56]

5 hours ago, bitonti said:

Warfish I love ya but you don't trade Adams for a center and you don't draft the 2 LSU WRs right after you trade Adams Mr LSU 

Adams is the culture he wins games. 

Wirfs should be gone. I'm not convinced Wills is a LT, value at 11, or fit for Gase zone scheme. 

And by the way if they sign Scherff (who has chronic shoulder injuries) they likely lose the 3rd round comp in 2021 for losing Robby. 

 

Pittman is not an LSU wr - USC 

[Green Truth]

Instead of trading Adams how about Joe D look to move the biggest mistake,  Q Williams.  If he can land a late 1st and 5th for him you take it.  Williams was not needed.   I will go to war with Anderson, Mclendon and Phillips and be fine with it.  Find a way to sign Bud Dupree if he is not tagged.  That is 2 more picks for the mistake and you get the edge you need.  Draft a OL and WR in round 1.  Round 2 another OL and round 3 another OL and WR.

[isired]

PFF write up on Adams, we all know he's the best blitzing safety in the league, what I like are his coverage stats, especially considering he's an every-down safety... We get a pass rush that isn't solely on him, and I think he'll create more turnovers.

 

 

No defensive coordinator loves blitzing the quarterback more than the New York Jets‘ Gregg Williams, and there is no better safety to utilize to that end than Jamal Adams, the league’s most valuable safety last season in terms of PFF WAR. He embodies all the tools needed to master the position: He is smart, fast and physical in his relentless pursuit of the quarterback, and his 22 total pressures generated gives him a pass-rush win rate of 24.1% this year, which ranks second among safeties. 

Jamal Adams' ability to disguise his intent to rush the quarterback works well with the Jets’ front seven. In the play above, Adams will mask his intent by pretending to be locked in man-to-man coverage on the tight end. Then watch his physical bull rush against running back Saqaun Barkley before he takes the ball from quarterback Daniel Jones and races into the end zone for a touchdown. This play is fully emblematic of Adams' complete skill set. His next sack will be his eighth this season and will tie a league record for defensive backs.

Defensive plays made at the line of scrimmage or in the opponent's backfield have a greater impact than non-turnover plays made further downfield. By playing in the other team’s backfield, the Jets' defense is creating negative-yardage plays for the opposing offense and boosting their EPA allowed per play into a top-10 mark in the entire NFL (-0.06).

 

Adams is No Liability in Coverage, Either

 

Having a versatile safety is incredibly valuable for NFL defensive schemes and game planning. A blitzing safety with no coverage skills could only be used in and around the line of scrimmage, and his presence there would immediately tip-off the opponent that a blitz, not coverage, is the safety's only option. As a do-it-all safety in the Jets' defense, Jamal Adams has proven to be an asset, and he's no liability when matched up in pass coverage, either. This season, he's allowed a passer rating of just 80.7 on throws into his primary coverage, which is way below the league-wide average for safeties (93.6). Adams’ pass coverage skills make him a complete, every-down safety in a league where teams will be using three such players more often than not.

His knack for pass-rushing combined with his talent to defend both the run and the pass has made him the only defensive back in the NFL who has played at least 200 snaps yet earned a top-10 PFF grade in coverage (86.1, seventh among safeties), against the run (81.6, seventh), as a tackler (89.7, second) and as a pass-rusher (90.4, tied for first).

 

 

 

 

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, NYJ1 said:

I stopped reading after Jamal Adams was traded. 

Your loss.

[Maxman]

4 hours ago, dbatesman said:

The Jets are 16-32 since he was drafted.

I prefer to just say they are 6 and 2 in his last 8 games lol.

[Maxman]

1 hour ago, HighPitch said:

Heres an idea: extend Adams now.

why cant we have a home grown star?

we can afford to have one star

I feel like this post is disrespectful to Bless Austin.

[joewilly12]

22 minutes ago, Green Truth said:

Instead of trading Adams how about Joe D look to move the biggest mistake,  Q Williams.  If he can land a late 1st and 5th for him you take it.  Williams was not needed.   I will go to war with Anderson, Mclendon and Phillips and be fine with it.  Find a way to sign Bud Dupree if he is not tagged.  That is 2 more picks for the mistake and you get the edge you need.  Draft a OL and WR in round 1.  Round 2 another OL and round 3 another OL and WR.

I agree QW needs to be shopped but nothing but a 1st round and a 4-5th or a player.  

DL was not needed in the 2019 NFL Draft. 

[Green Truth]

1 minute ago, joewilly12 said:

I agree QW needs to be shopped but nothing but a 1st round and a 4-5th or a player.  

DL was not needed in the 2019 NFL Draft. 

They also picked up Myers from the Rams,  Nathan Shepherd is still here.  Williams can go without any damage what so ever.  Draft a big body in the 6th to eat up space.    Re-sign Jenkins keep Williamson and get an edge in FA .   You are looking at a pretty good front 7.

[More Cowbell]

5 hours ago, Warfish said:

I simply do not agree re: Adams or his value to this franchise's future.

But respecting that view, the plan is easily modified to suit, you just get less tools to fill our many gaping holes at vital spots.

Still does most of what I want to see done. 

Harrison starts at Center unless he can improved via FA.  

P.S. Love you too Bit. 

What if most of the Mocks are right and Wirfs is off the board. Who do you take at 1? Lamb? That would make Jefferaon a pointless pickon the second and if the Jets take Willis over Lamb, I will be on this board saying we past on a what is possibly a generational WR for a reach at OL. 

[More Cowbell]

5 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yawn.   We wouldn't be looking to trade Deshaun Watson or Pat Mahomes if they were the pick at 6.  Those 2 are facing off in the playoffs this week while our BEST season with Jamal has been 7-9.

People need to stop being so sensitive about the Adams trade talk.  It's getting embarrassing.  

Oh BS. How many trade Sam threads have there been on the forum?

Do you think Watson or Pat perform any better running for their life every down?

[JTJet]

17 minutes ago, Maxman said:

I feel like this post is disrespectful to Bless Austin.

No love for Kyle Phillips?

[More Cowbell]

5 hours ago, Warfish said:

As a side note, I find it exceptionally interesting that the Adams situation is a perfect example of the Endowment Effect (for info on this see here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endowment_effect).

Put simply, there is no chance anyone on this site would hypothetically trade to acquire Adams (if he were on another team) today and send our 2020 #1 and #3 or similar to get him.  

Yet when offered the same in reverse, that very same player is SO valued that we wouldn't trade him away for that very same #1 and #3 or similar.

This kind of "overvaluation of what you already have" is quite common, but it's so clearly in effect here, it's a brilliant example of behavioral psychology in action.

This again? Should the Jets trade a 1 and a 3 for any player?

[Ghost420]

1 hour ago, HighPitch said:

Pay adams 15

say no to robbies demands. Bye.

draft 2 wrs early in rounds 1 to 3

draft 2 o line guys early in rounds 1 to 3

end of problem

Possibly end of problem. Gotta hit on those picks 

[More Cowbell]

5 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Jets fans:  "We have to build around Sam!  Devote all resources to the offense this offseason!"

Also Jets fans, when it is suggested to trade Jamal in order to improve the offense:  "F**K YOU WE CAN'T WIN WITHOUT JAMAL"

Let's  say Chase Young slid to 11. Maybe he gets arrested for DWI. Do you pass on him? I would say edge is possibly a biiger need than OL. 

[Warfish]

19 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

What if most of the Mocks are right and Wirfs is off the board. Who do you take at 1? Lamb? That would make Jefferaon a pointless pickon the second and if the Jets take Willis over Lamb, I will be on this board saying we past on a what is possibly a generational WR for a reach at OL. 

I'll quote the OP:

Quote

The players above are placeholders.  Most should be available at or around those spots, as of today, but a ton will change between today and draft day.  The basic plan, however, should remain.

And a follow-up post:

Quote

To stress, this is a general plan of attack, a way of expressing my view on how to improve the team.  As I said, the players names may (and likely wil) change in many places between now and Draft Day, and some flips could occur (a WR here instead of a CB, a OL here instead of a WR, etc.)

 

[More Cowbell]

5 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

My retort to that:  It's easily possible that we keep Adams AND fail to draft a good player in the 1st round.

But since Macc is gone, we have no choice but to trust the new guy to do what's right for the franchise.  

Why is it this is the only business in the world that you take a guy that never drafted before, and you trust him to make all the right moves his first time out. No other business would this be done. I honestly can't  think of any comparison.  

[joewilly12]

11 minutes ago, JTJet said:

No love for Kyle Phillips?

Kid had a great season for an UDFA. 

[More Cowbell]

5 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I'll quote the OP:

 

So basically you aren't  taking a position. 

Good to know

[RobR]

5 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

I would say edge is possibly a biiger need than OL. 

And you would be wrong. Our defense was fine with all of the resources we've poured into it over the last decade and if we pick defense with our first pick I'm flying to Florham Park and punching JD right in his face. 

No more defense, especially in the first round. Why is that so hard to understand for anyone that claims to be a Jets fan? 

[Warfish]

6 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

So basically you aren't  taking a position. 

Good to know

I'm sorry you don't understand.  Maybe next time.

[Maxman]

15 minutes ago, JTJet said:

No love for Kyle Phillips?

I actually went to the roster and it was in alphabetical order. Stopped once I saw Bless. I am lazy.

[More Cowbell]

5 minutes ago, RobR said:

And you would be wrong. Our defense was fine with all of the resources we've poured into it over the last decade and if we pick defense with our first pick I'm flying to Florham Park and punching JD right in his face. 

No more defense, especially in the first round. Why is that so hard to understand for anyone that claims to be a Jets fan? 

I would only take Young,  not Espana. Young looks like the next Von Miller.

[More Cowbell]

3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I'm sorry you don't understand.  Maybe next time.

You put in a disclaimer that said things might change. 

What am I missing. 

I'm asking you to address a different scenario  and ypu basically are saying no, I don't  have to because I wrote this.

 

[kevinc855]

We aren’t trading  Adams 

[Warfish]

Just now, More Cowbell said:

What am I missing. 

The quoted sections directly answer your question.