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2020 Draft General Plan - The Warfish Way (as of 1/6/20)


Warfish

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5 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

What if I agree that he's great and interpret all the numbers as he has a fairly significant impact on wins, and yet conclude that I have no ******* clue what the Jets are supposed to do with the guy?

Typically squishy California neoliberal jellyfish says what

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8 minutes ago, Warfish said:

We should really fix that, eh? :-k

Of course.  But you can do it without getting rid of the best chess piece you have IMO.

This idea that we MUST subtract in order to add has to be pushed aside.  If we want additional picks then Joe D should be trading down in Round 1.  Go from #11 to somewhere in the late teens or #20, take another team's 2nd and a 3rd or 4th, and then accumulate guys.  Put it this way, the Jets are so devoid of talent that when they're on the clock in Round 5 there will be available college prospects who will have a chance to fight for a starting spot on this team.  Even Macc lucked his way into Cashman, Austin, etc.  I'm not advocating for something like the Idzik 12 again, but the Jets can certainly trade down and accumulate multiple picks in Rounds 2 through 4, a traditional sweet spot for finding guys like Offensive Linemen.  Moving back in Round 1, having two picks in Round 2, already having three in Round 3 (thank you Giants) would give the Jets 5 picks in the first 3 rounds.  If Joe D can't kickstart an offensive rebuild with that then he doesn't belong here.  OT, WR, OG, WR, Edge....all before Round 4.

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I think the trade Adams talk isn’t ultimately going to go anywhere. The value we’d presumably require in a trade Isn’t likely to be met by many teams as i don’t think any teams would value Adams high enough to give up so much draft capital for a safety that doesn’t cause turnovers. 
 

He’s probably going to get extended here, best to just let it go. 

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11 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Call him a Linebacker/Edge?

Because lets be honest, that's what he really is.  :-k

I mean in terms of future stuff. Pay him? Trade him? Who the **** knows. The Jets shockingly finally drafted a great player with a top pick for once and yet once again they are inevitably headed towards another iceberg.

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5 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

I think the trade Adams talk isn’t ultimately going to go anywhere. The value we’d presumably require in a trade Isn’t likely to be met by many teams as i don’t think any teams would value Adams high enough to give up so much draft capital for a safety that doesn’t cause turnovers. 
 

He’s probably going to get extended here, best to just let it go. 

There are currently two Adams-like players projected to go in the first twenty picks in the draft in Grant Delpit and Isaiah Simmons. If you’re a team inclined to draft one of those guy with your first round pick, might it be worth your while to forfeit a third rounder (and a fat salary) in order to secure a proven two-time All Pro at the position who’s allegedly a leader and self-styled celebrity? 

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2 hours ago, Warfish said:

As a side note, I find it exceptionally interesting that the Adams situation is a perfect example of the Endowment Effect (for info on this see here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endowment_effect).

Put simply, there is no chance anyone on this site would hypothetically trade to acquire Adams (if he were on another team) today and send our 2020 #1 and #3 or similar to get him.  

Yet when offered the same in reverse, that very same player is SO valued that we wouldn't trade him away for that very same #1 and #3 or similar.

This kind of "overvaluation of what you already have" is quite common, but it's so clearly in effect here, it's a brilliant example of behavioral psychology in action.

you may want to send this psychobabble to Joe Douglas cause he already said he ain't trading Adams for a measly 1st and 3rd. 

It won't even get him on the phone if that's the offer.  Savage would tell whoever called he's not bringing this to JD - call back when you're serious.

 

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1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

There are currently two Adams-like players projected to go in the first twenty picks in the draft in Grant Delpit and Isaiah Simmons. If you’re a team inclined to draft one of those guy with your first round pick, might it be worth your while to forfeit a third rounder (and a fat salary) in order to secure a proven two-time All Pro at the position who’s allegedly a leader and self-styled celebrity? 

2 1sts and a 3rd.

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25 minutes ago, Pac said:

you may want to send this psychobabble to Joe Douglas cause he already said he ain't trading Adams for a measly 1st and 3rd. 

It won't even get him on the phone if that's the offer.  Savage would tell whoever called he's not bringing this to JD - call back when you're serious.

 

Serious question: What if Douglas takes the call and it goes like this: "Hey Joe, it's Jerry Jones here. We want Adams and we're willing to offer you our first rounder, our third rounder, and an additional second rounder in 2021, whattya say?" Good deal, yes? But then Joe Douglas looks down and sees the call is coming from a Kinko's in East Islip and he realizes it's just Mike Maccagnan prank-calling him from his new job?

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My retort to that:  It's easily possible that we keep Adams AND fail to draft a good player in the 1st round. But since Macc is gone, we have no choice but to trust the new guy to do what's right for the franchise.  

 

Including if the new guy decides to keep Jamal? People seem to be of the opinion that it's a foregone conclusion that JD trades Jamal. What if he doesn't? What if the 'new guy' decides that dealing...easily...our best player on the roster for pennies on the dollar is a bad idea? He's already said as much to anyone that would listen.

 

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We have way more misses than hits. Just don’t understand trading away one of your best players for “a hope”. Especially a team that Is horrible at drafting! I mean we absolutely sux at drafting and now we are supposed to get rid of the rare hit we had? Man plays with heart every down and we get rid of him so he can help another team win? Sorry I just don’t see the logic 

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nothing wrong with the draft, the two WRs are great and I like the names at the Oline positions..

 

Don't like "trade Adams" part... and honestly, we're not getting a 1st round pick for him... that ship sailed in Oct....  Like maybe back end of the first if we're lucky? Like picks #29-32... and even then, is it worth at that point? I doubt it. 

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1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

There are currently two Adams-like players projected to go in the first twenty picks in the draft in Grant Delpit and Isaiah Simmons. If you’re a team inclined to draft one of those guy with your first round pick, might it be worth your while to forfeit a third rounder (and a fat salary) in order to secure a proven two-time All Pro at the position who’s allegedly a leader and self-styled celebrity? 

Just want to be clear -- cause you're at the head of the "Trade Adams" table.. 

DAL is not likely trading for Adams. that ship sailed... I don't think anyone in the middle of march is going to ship their first round pick to us for Adams.. maybe like one the teams in the #28-32 range at best.... if we're lucky... 

What teams are willing to pay in October in order to make a SB push, is significantly higher than what you'll get in March with the draft just weeks away....  At least that's what i see. 

You think that's worth trading Adams away? 

I don't, 100%

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4 hours ago, Warfish said:

Round #7 - Pick Um'.  RB.  OG.  OT.  EDGE.  BAP with max upside and bully toughness is fine here.  Sorry, my bad, this was traded away.

Pretty sure we still have it and I know for a fact we have eight picks this year.

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Just now, Paradis said:

Just want to be clear -- cause you're at the head of the "Trade Adams" table.. 

DAL is not trading for Adams. that ship sailed... I don't think anyone in the middle of march is going to ship their first round pick to us for Adams.. maybe like one the teams in the #28-32 range at best.... if we're lucky... 

You think that's worth trading him away? 

I don't, 100%

Why would Dallas not trade for Adams at this point? They just hired McCarthy to be Jerry's lapdog. It's not like there'll be much resistance. 

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8 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Why would Dallas not trade for Adams at this point? They just hired McCarthy to be Jerry's lapdog. It's not like there'll be much resistance. 

well, like i just said, they were pushing for the playoffs. So... that's not happening anymore. Teams' agenda and lists of desired roster moves change dramatically with the Draft and FA around the corner.

I know it's not what the Trade-Adamists want to hear, but the pipe dream of getting DAL's first is likely just that. 

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I don;t think Adams trade value is lower at all, if anything it is higher he is an all pro.

Now Quinnen Williams is another matter his value is tank low.

JJ son has said more than once that the only thing preventing the Dallas D from being elite was a play making Safety.

I doubt if he is going anywhere but they better be listening.

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1 minute ago, Beerfish said:

I don;t think Adams trade value is lower at all, if anything it is higher he is an all pro.

Yea, i dont' think it matters. For the same reason some of you want to unload him - is the same reason why a team with a top 20 pick isn't going to pay for him. IMO...

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1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

There are currently two Adams-like players projected to go in the first twenty picks in the draft in Grant Delpit and Isaiah Simmons. If you’re a team inclined to draft one of those guy with your first round pick, might it be worth your while to forfeit a third rounder (and a fat salary) in order to secure a proven two-time All Pro at the position who’s allegedly a leader and self-styled celebrity? 

Neither of those players are anything like Adams at least when comparing skill sets and how they will be used. Delpit can actually play centerfield and has a great break on the ball.....not sure why you brought up Simmons.

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4 minutes ago, Paradis said:

well, like i just said, they were pushing for the playoffs. So... that's not happening anymore. Teams' agenda and lists of desired roster moves change dramatically with the Draft and FA around the corner.

I know it's not what the Trade-Adamists want to hear, but the pipe dream of getting DAL's first is likely just that. 

I’d disagree from this standpoint: Dallas is clearly pushing for a Super Bowl next year, they have $90 mil in cap space, and the big deficiency they had on defense was in their safety play. Additionally, there’s a big push for more “dawgs” on the roster—culture changers who “know how to win”—and that’s the Adams brand to a tee. Jerry needs to make a splash to get the taste of an embarrassing season out of his mouth, and Adams is a guy he can sell to his fanbase. I think it’s a great match.

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5 minutes ago, RobR said:

Neither of those players are anything like Adams at least when comparing skill sets and how they will be used. Delpit can actually play centerfield and has a great break on the ball.....not sure why you brought up Simmons.

Hybrid safety/LBs yadda yadda

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Just now, T0mShane said:

Hybrid safety/LBs yadda yadda

Problem is Simmons never plays the safety position and Delpit is mostly in coverage. I like Delpit a lot as a prospect but even he would fail playing as often in the box as Adams and Simmons could never cover as well. Bad comparison IMO.

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1 minute ago, RobR said:

Problem is Simmons never plays the safety position and Delpit is mostly in coverage. I like Delpit a lot as a prospect but even he would fail playing as often in the box as Adams and Simmons could never cover as well. Bad comparison IMO.

Ostensibly, Adams can do both things so I think the comparison works if a team is looking to draft the athletic lb that can cover or the dynamic safety that can come up against the run, Adams fits the bill for them in either case. 

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8 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I’d disagree from this standpoint: Dallas is clearly pushing for a Super Bowl next year, they have $90 mil in cap space, and the big deficiency they had on defense was in their safety play. Additionally, there’s a big push for more “dawgs” on the roster—culture changers who “know how to win”—and that’s the Adams brand to a tee. Jerry needs to make a splash to get the taste of an embarrassing season out of his mouth, and Adams is a guy he can sell to his fanbase. I think it’s a great match.

Pipedream.

They have extensions to doll out that will make that disappear. That window closed, friend. Look me up when i'm proven wrong. 

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